I don’t know what 2006 holds but I can make some shrewd guesses:VC spending will continue to increase: there’s billions still out there that needs to be invested. Web 2.0 firms because of their very nature are not very good at absorbing VC cash. The California sunshine and slick PowerPoint presentations will convince some that their is gold in them there solar panels, other winners will be well extraction technologies and non-silicon chip manufacturers as the tech goes molecular.
Google will meet or fall below analyst earnings in at least one quarters financial results. The fact that they are trying to get into so many things at the moment indicates to me that their money machine may not be able to continue to sustain the same high levels of growth.
I want my Mac the size of a paperback book – Apple will enter the sub-notebook marketplace for the first time since the PowerBook Duo series of computers. I want my Libretto-sized Apple machine and Intel’s performance-per-watt engineering focus can deliver it.
Move over Sundance – As a way to get to the customer, brands start to think about financing independent film productions. Guinness Africa is said to have done this successfully with Critical Assignment. Broadband and bit torrent mean that they can have a much more expansive canvas than the Driver series of films by BMW America.
WiMax why? – WiMax gets overtaken by the next new thing Flarion’s Flash-OFDM, they now have the weight and the credibility of Qualcomm behind them. Qualcomm has the crucial credibility in the telecoms arena.
Serious questions will get asked in business about what BPM actually means since the label has been stretched so far. Rules-based development tools will take off when someone licences it at a low enough price per developer seat, or an open source version is created.
The Sony PlayStation III will be this generations DreamCast. Why? Crappy developer relations, too few games and those that are out there don’t take advantage of the technology; nor will they be addictively playable. The world realises that somethings up when the Xbox360 kicks Sony’s ass in the Japanese market.
Sony gets a second black eye with Blu-Ray. Its in the interest of just about everybody outside the movie industry to go with HD-DVD. Cheaper, easier to produce the discs in existing pressing plants.
Web 2.0 is dead, long live Web 3.0 – Web 2.0 won’t die, its just the brand Web 2.0 is tired and hackneyed. Forrester already calls it the XInternet instead, expect the technorati to repackage it as a different catchphrase.