Predictions for 2009

Its become a bit of a tradition to do predictions, here’s mine for 2009:

  • Haptic displays are going to evolve as everyone jumps on the touchscreen wagon for mobile devices
  • Mobile devices won’t move forward much in terms of technology as the battery life isn’t there, mini and micro USB connections will become the norm on many cell phones (I’m hoping even with Nokia)
  • SSD drives will continue their slow advance into the mainstream
  • Sales of computer hardware will drop in real terms due to a focus on cheaper platforms, the power of mobile devices and virtualisation employed at the high end of servers
  • People will start to get concerned about IP v.6 compatability, especially the fact that BT’s 21 Century Network may only support IP v.4
  • DVDs will exist happily alongside blu-ray for most people as there isn’t a compelling reason to upgrade and financial belt tightening is required
  • The Nintendo DS does comparatively well as it becomes the geek’s answer to the lipstick effect , especially when you have people like Korg making add-on cartridges turning it into serious hardware. Testing equipment may become Nintendo DS cartridges to take advantage of the small size, touch interface and dual screens
  • Enterprises are going to start looking seriously at devices like the Asus eeePC: more applications can be run through a web browser, the devices have a decent battery life and cheaper to purchase than the dullest corporate laptop. This will help reduce the spiralling cost of desktop support.
  • Business software won’t provide any magic gains in productivity, all the big wins have already been made. High-end database sales start to drop as organisations look at more effective ways of handling and processing huge amounts of data
  • Google is likely to find itself on the end of a federal anti-trust case, and make new inroads into the enterprise.
  • Cisco’s telepresence isn’t likely to make business sense until someone invents a display where the camera element stare out from between the pixels, allowing you to make eye contact with other video conference participants. without having to have a huge room and huge screens. It won’t be Cisco that makes that leap forward in screen technology, Apple already holds patents on it
  • Amazon’s Kindle won’t be a great success in Europe, Amazon Marketplace will do rather better so long as it avoids eBay-type fraud cases
  • There won’t be any major innovations in online marketing as marketers stick with tried and proven ROI ways to drive demand
  •  There won’t be a breakthrough application for 2009 in the way Twitter broke through in 2007/8
  • People will form company-specific Facebook groups to reflect on how bitter they are over being made redundant, badvocate causes will multiply
  • Google will continue to do well as marketers fall back from experimenting with social media to online marketing that they can easily demonstrate ROI from, and it doesn’t get any easier than with Google Adwords programme
  • Mobile will be embraced by pioneer brands and these will be rewarded in the longer term, particularly if as part of integrated campaigns incorporating digital artifacts and location based services (the web of no web)
  • ADSL broadband connections will decline slightly as cash strapped consumers use PAYG wireless broadband services, though this may be mitigated by the requirement of having a passport to get a wireless dongle

What are your predictions for 2009?