Crystal ball-gazing: 2012 how did I do?

Sorry that things have been quiet here; a combination of work, food poisoning and a writing-related deadline but posting on rc temporarily down on my list of priorities. But now balance has somewhat returned to the Gedverse.

Last year (as for the past few years) I looked at what I thought would be trending items over 2012. So how did I do? In 2011, I got a hit rate of four out of six:

Facebook: above-the-line becomes more important

Facebook’s tweaks to its newsfeed algorithm pretty much obliged brands to use sponsored stories for community acquisition, so I am claiming this.

Facebook: substantial inventory price inflation

By August, UK media agency Cream posted a blog about how research had shown 45 – 75 per cent price inflation. Two for nil.

Twitter: getting its mojo back

Changing aspects of regulations governing the API, was definitely not Twitter getting its mojo back; as is the row with Instagram. But it is making a lot of money. Two – one but I am still ahead :-)

Changing business models a la Pinboard

I think I can claim this one, I cite Newsblur and WhatsApp as evidence your honor.  Three – one.

Search and mobile tempo set by regulatory and legal moves

I can probably claim this more for search than mobile when one sees the antitrust investigations against Google in both the US and EU. Mobile is more interesting as Apple’s legal efforts haven’t held back Samsung, but then Samsung have failed to use the courts to hamper Apple as well. Four – one.

New growth areas in mobile likely to be around core phone things: communications and messaging

I have been setting up my new life in Hong Kong and much of the process has been managed over WhatsApp rather than email. Tencent’s WeChat (aka Weixin) is the first Chinese social media service that has gone global. Viber has seen take-up amongst a number of my UK peers and a number of other services like Naver’s LINE have respectable subscriber and revenue numbers. Five – one

Pictures under glass metaphor unlikely to change

When a Nokia phone is largely differentiated on rounded sides and a magenta-coloured case from its Windows brethren. Android phones show a similar lack of variety and the new BB10 devices look like a similar monolithic slab, I can claim this one.  Six for one.

So a 85.7% prediction rate up from 66.(6)% as much by luck as anything else; I can’t really see myself improving on this in 2013 unless the year is surprisingly boring.

More information
2012: just where is digital going?
Crystal ball-gazing: 2011 how did I do?
Is Facebook Advertising Too Expensive? – Cream