Retail sector outlook through John Lewis Christmas adverts

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I met up with Ian Wood earlier on in the week and he pointed out that this year’s John Lewis adverts are about giving a single present and by implication – don’t make it a crap one. So I decided to go back and have a look at previous John Lewis ads over the years.

YearTitleAmount of presents that the hero of the advert receives/gives based on the particular storylineQ3 UK GDP numbers – as a predictor for the Q4 growth – via Office for National StatisticsQ4 UK GDP numbers as an indicator of how the economy performed in the Christmas periodDelta on the GDP values
2013Bear and the hare10.8%??
2012The Journey30.7%-0.2-0.9%
2011Christmas advert 20115* looking at boy’s room0.5%-0.1%-0.6%
2010Christmas Advert 201010.6%-0.4%-1.0%
20092009 Christmas Advert10.4%0.4%0.0%
2008From Me To You1-1.8%-2.1%-0.3%
2007Shadows2* brought in by each person1.20.2%-1.0%

The correlation in these John Lewis ads, based on the limited data set that I had wasn’t that strong. Maybe they don’t have their finger on the pulse of the retail sector after all? More retailing related content here.

More information

The Bear & The Hare
The Journey
Christmas advert 2011
Christmas Advert 2010
2009 Christmas Advert
From me to you
Guardian data dump of UK GDP data from Office of National Statistics (ONS)