2016: crystal ball gazing, how did I do?

Here are the predictions made at the top of the year

I expect Uber will continue to funnel money into China and still get sand in its face. Quite what this means for Lyft I am not so sure.

Uber raised more money, realised that things still weren’t improving and then got a face saving exit from the Chinese market. I’ll call that a win.

Twitter gets a change of management, but that doesn’t do any good… All of this would be bad news for potential advertisers and their intermediaries in the advertising and PR world.

God, where do we start with Twitter. It has had extensive management churn and a big staff lay-off. I don’t think that my own view about a change of management is correct though. I envisaged this as a strategic proactive more by the board rather than the current rotating door. I have been impressed by how well Twitter advertising has held up. Twitter might look like the Yahoo! of social media, but it still holds a lot of weight with the mainstream media which still counts for something.

Fintech bubble that will take good ideas and bad ones down together. Banks are currently considered to be ripe for disruption. One of the key problems with this is that technologists think it will be easy to sweep aside regulations that banks operate under.

This one is still percolating out. Banks are looking particularly at Blockchain as the basis of a better transaction ledger/database. Informally, I have heard that VC funding has largely dried up on fintech start-ups; but the other shoe has yet to drop.  Zopa applying for a bank licence and becoming a bank felt like a watershed moment.

The internet in the EU will become increasingly regulated. At the moment the European Union is succumbing to The Fear. 

The fear has grown beyond terrorism to being overrun by immigrants (some of whom will be terrorists). The UK is well on its way to putting into law some of the most Draconian web laws in the western world from porn filtering to sharing citizen web history access with a wide range of government agencies.

Overall this has made less progress than I expected because Brexit became the existential challenge that the EU members will seek to vanquish.

We will have reached peak smartphone and tablet. China has now reached replacement rate for devices, there is a corresponding lack of paradigm shifts in the pipelines for smartphone design and software. Tablets have shown themselves to be nice devices for data consumption but not requiring regular upgrades like the smartphone or replacement for the PC.

We’ve certainly reached peak tablet. Smartphones are taking a longer while to shake out. What we are seeing is declining margins in smartphones. Apple increased its industry share of profits to 90% despite:

  • Making a weak update to the iPhone 6S
  • Having a declining market share
  • Having a higher cost in terms of bill of materials

There were some one-off factors such as the Samsung Note 7 recall and the collapse of Hanjin Shipping which curtailed the supply of some handsets.

VR in 2016 will be all about finding the right content. VR won’t work in gaming unless it provides e-gaming athletes with some sort of competitive advantage, if it does then gaming will blow things up massively. Gaming will not be the only content vehicle for VR, it needs an Avatar-like moment to drive adoption into the early mainstream.

There were two things that surprised me about VR in 2016.

  • It look Sony so long to get VR on to the PlayStation, it will be a while for us to see the impact of gaming on the use of VR. It certainly provides immersive experiences, but does it provide e-athletes with competitive advantage?
  • China blew the amount of VR headsets available out of the water, but there has been a corresponding dearth of content. The stuff on YouTube is nice demo-ware, but where is the ‘Breaking Bad’ of VR

One thing that people aren’t talking about is the role of VR googles as a replacement for a large TV set. I have heard that some of the most used apps for VR is Netflix.

Older predictions
2016: just where is it all going? | renaissance chambara
2015: crystal ball gazing, how did I do? | renaissance chambara
2015: just where is it all going? | renaissance chambara
2014: crystal ball gazing, how did I do?
2014: just where is it all going? | renaissance chambara 
Crystal ball-gazing: 2013 how did I do?
2013: just where is it all going?
Crystal ball-gazing: 2012 how did I do?
2012: just where is digital going?
Crystal ball-gazing: 2011 how did I do?
2010: How did I do?
2010: just where is digital going?