Search results for: “"Symbian"”

  • Skype retrospective

    A Skype retrospective was called for once I read that the service was being closed by April 2025.

    Skype retrospective origins.

    Skype was a thing right from the get-go when it launched in August 2003. There had been voice-over-IP (VoIP) services before Skype. Full disclosure, I worked on Deltathree; an Israeli predecessor of Skype.

    About this time, if you needed to make cheap overseas call, you would dial in to a special service and then dial the overseas number. This would relay your call via VoIP. These calls were also facilitated direct from a PC as well using VoIP.

    Previously, telephone calls were charged per voice minute. The further away the call was, the more expensive it was. VoIP disrupted the telecoms cost model.

    Enabling technologies.

    As broadband networks became more prevalent and Wi-Fi meant that you were no longer tethered to the ethernet connection of your router. At the time homes had an area delegated for internet access. Laptops were much less commonplace.

    Classic iMac in residence at Manchester Digital Development Agency

    The original iMac was a success because it was a plug-in and play solution for internet access. It’s iconic ‘candy design’ helped differentiate it from the competitors beige PC.

    By the time Skype was released I had an Apple iBook, a consumer laptop that pioneered the adoption of Wi-Fi, back in 1999, but my first broadband router at home didn’t support Wi-Fi. Broadband, Wi-Fi and 3G networks facilitated the start of Skype. Those networks provided the always-on connectivity to get the most out of the app.

    Low-key start.

    If there was any ‘thought leader’ on VoIP at the time, it would have been Jeff Pulver. Pulver didn’t bother discussing Skype at the time. Instead he was focused on expected government regulation, Vonage, PC VoIP software X-Lite and Windows Messenger.

    Skype first appeared on Pulver’s radar in December 2003, after Red Herring announced that they had secured a first round of venture funding. Pulver praised their ‘viral marketing’.

    It wasn’t obvious that Skype would be a winner.

    Messaging at the time.

    The primary messaging platform at the time in Europe was SMS. Instant messaging was starting to be used informally in workplaces. It was as much about the community norm as anything else. I started off using ICQ with Israeli clients, then Yahoo! Messenger, AIM (AOL Instant Messenger) and MSN Messenger. It was all a bit messy, so I pulled all my accounts together using Adium.

    Take-off.

    Skype quickly took its place on my laptop when it released its first Mac client in March 2004. By the summer, one of my clients at the time got rid of their desk phones when they moved office and had employees do internal and office-to-office calls via Skype-to-Skype instead. Giving someone your Skype ID became as common as giving out your email.

    At the time Skype offered encrypted voice calls held over a peer-to-peer network. The encryption was contentious as it something of Skype’s own design and wasn’t audited.

    In 2005, Skype was sold to eBay. The synergy between them wasn’t clear.

    Joost

    A year later, the Skype founders left and founded The Venice Project aka Joost – a peer to peer video platform. It was a photo-streaming platform. I liked Joost for its sub-Amazon Prime Video film library including obscure 1970s English language overdubbed martial arts films. But there was also Viacom content available.

    Meanwhile under eBay’s ownership, Skype incorporated video calls into its offering. I ended up in a long distance relationship with a Hong Kong-based fellow Mac user and we ended up talking every day via Skype. It even worked when she visited across the border in Shenzhen.

    Mobile impact

    You can’t write a Skype retrospective without talking about its role on mobile.

    3 Skypephone logo

    Hutchison 3G (known as Three), was a cellular carrier brand put together by CK Hutchison to build a global 3G network in Asia and Europe. In 2007, Three launched Skypephone with Skype. The key part of this as an unremarkable looking candy bar handset.

    3 Skypephone (white and pink)

    The Skype phone allowed you to see the status of your Skype contacts on the phone, allowing for presence on the go, in real time (network permitting) which was revolutionary. But we take it for granted on WhatsApp now. There was a couple of forums that gave out widely copied workarounds for the clunky implementation of Skype.

    For some reason Hong Kong always got the best features. You could have two numbers on your phone there. The first number was your proper mobile phone number that worked like you would expect it to. The second was your ‘SkypeIn’ number – a soft telephone service.

    I had worked on pioneer mobile app Yahoo!Go previously, which only allowed email and no VoIP calls. The Skype phone was a major leap forward because it allowed synchronous communications when connected to a network.

    There would have been no WhatsApp, Viber, WeChat or LINE without Skype leading the way.

    A nerdier fact was that the Skype phone ran on the BREW application development platform by Qualcomm. It allowed Java apps to be downloaded directly from early app stores before the iPhone. At the time I was side loading apps from my Mac on to my Palm and Symbian phones.

    Beginning of the end.

    The peak of my Skype use was keeping in touch with my parents when I was working in Hong Kong. Video calling made the world feel closer and they got to see some of Hong Kong with me because of its higher quality 3G network.

    Soon after I got back, we switched to FaceTime. This was for a couple of reasons. Skype had an increasing number of spam accounts and phishing attacks. Secondly, FaceTime had an easier to use interface.

    This is the point in the Skype retrospective when I think that the rot started to set in.

    From a software point of view a big decline occurred in 2016, Microsoft had settled into their purchase of Skype and decided to re-architect the system. Out went the peer-to-peer connections and the system moved onto Microsoft servers to mediate Skype-to-Skype calls.

    The irony of it all is that the distributed web is now the technology du jour.

    Microsoft messed with the user experience and I distinctly remember moving from one version to another and hated the new layout. From then on, it didn’t improve. Skype’s ability to dial out to international numbers was still something that I put to good use, pretty much up to the time of writing. But like an old cheque book, I came to use it less-and less often; knowing that I could still use the service, allowed Skype to be a back-up to a back-up of a back-up.

    At the time I was also using Skype for Business in the office where I worked. It was shambolic with each call timing out around the 30-minute mark.

    Om Malik had a similar experience.

    Skype, was once a beloved product, one that I loved using every day. It was a product I wrote about long before it was trendy. I sent the team feedback. Like all tiny apps that are good at what they do, it became popular and grew really fast. It was sold to eBay, and then re-sold to Microsoft. And that’s when the magic disappeared. Through series of mergers and managers, Skype became an exact opposite of what I loved about it — independent outsider which was great at — chat, messaging and phone calls. It had just enough features, and its desktop client was minimal in its perfection.  Now, as I tweeted in the past, it is “a turd of the highest quality.”

    The final bow

    A Skype retrospective would be remiss, if we didn’t cover the impact that the service has had. While Skype has struggled with scammers and Microsoft’s sub-optimal operation, its legacy lives on.

    The culture of desktop video calls started with Skype. Microsoft Teams, Zoom and Slack are its spiritual successors. A combination of software capability, hot-desking, hybrid working and COVID resulted in long term business behaviour change.

    As I write this, IAG – owners of British Airways, Aer Lingus and Iberia admitted that “business travel had settled into a ‘new normal’ that involved fewer one-day trips with flights, in part because of video meetings.”

    Skype had some current cultural relevance, particularly on TV where presenters would interview someone from outside the studio, for instance an expert calling in from home, Skype would still be the client used.

    At the time of writing, I am looking at Rakuten Viber to substitute my need for a ‘SkypeOut’ analogue.

  • UK economic hole + more things

    UK Economic Hole

    Will anything revive UK productivity? | Financial Times – I am not convinced that anything currently on the horizon will sort out the UK economic hole. 

    Harold Macmillan
    Former British prime minister Harold Macmillan

    Verdoorn’s Law and Nicholas Kaldor

    If we go back to 1949 Dutch economics Petrus Johannes Verdoorn came up with a law – the long run productivity generally grows proportionally to the square root of output. This law addresses the relationship between the growth of output and the growth of productivity. Faster growth in output increases productivity due to increased returns.

    “in the long run a change in the volume of production, say about 10 per cent, tends to be associated with an average increase in labor productivity of 4.5 per cent.”

    Causes of the Slow Growth in the United Kingdom Nicholas Kaldor (1966) Cambridge University Press

    A heuristic called Vandoorn’s coefficient of 0.484 was found in estimates of the law following Vandoorn’s original publication. Nicholas Kaldor who made similar points as far back as 1960 in his work Essays on Value and Distribution. Kaldor built on Verdoorn’s Law observing that manufacturing was the best way of increasing output.

    Slater, Walker Securities

    The UK economic hole isn’t anything new. Back when I was a child we saw UK industry disappearing at about 1.5% of industrial capacity a month. The source of the destruction was apparent in the post war period, although manufacturing innovation had been underbanked and under invested for decades. Jim Slater and his financial vehicle Slater, Walker Securities was the harbinger of forces that unleashed the UK economic hole.

    The State We’re In

    hutton

    Economics editor Will Hutton wrote the The State We’re In and I got to read it while I was in college. It caught the policy wonk zeitgeist of the future Blair administration – making the argument for long termism and manufacturing as a creator of wealth together with Keynesian economics.

    Slow Growth Britain to Cool Britannia

    Hutton wasn’t alone in his viewpoint but building on the expertise and experience. Wilfred Beckerman in his book Slow Growth in Britain: Causes & Consequences published in 1979 is a case in point. As you read these books the same points are made over and over again about what has become the UK economic hole. The discovery and exploitation of North Sea oil provided a sticking plaster from 1982 through to 1999. But production in UK oil and gas fields have been in decline since. Any economic productivity benefit provided to British industry through a massive shake out was transferred to unemployment relief. Secondly industrial eco-systems or ‘clusters’ as Richard Florida would term them in his work Who’s Your City? disappeared, causing the manufacturing base to lose critical mass. Any gains were largely spent by 1990. Manufacturing was a driver and a shock absorber for productivity related issues – this is important for the subsequent UK economic hole.

    While Hutton was read by the future Blair administration they did little about it, due to the Augean task that confronted them.

    Following the decline of manufacturing the UK, focused on financial services which turned toxic in 2006. There were additional smaller bets on professional services and the creative industry (remember pre-millennium awkwardness of Cool Britannia)? As an economic rational decision maker, I pivoted my career out of industry and into the creative sector – thankfully I was young enough to be able to do it. Many couldn’t and were trapped in low value services jobs or living on long term sickness benefits to massage unemployment figures.

    Young tax-paying workers

    The collapse of financial services saw the current productivity collapse and stagnation amplifying the long standing UK economic hole. Brexit could be seen as a wail of pain and anger. The reality was that being in the EU allowed cheaper skilled workers to move to the UK and use existing manufacturing plants for the likes of Cadbury’s and Unilever. So the UK benefited from young tax-paying Europeans, but lost out in terms of wage depression. Brexit severed that last gasp of productivity increases.

    Business

    Adidas: declining market share in China reflects growing strength of local brands   | Financial Times – Xinjiang and also Adidas real world retail got hammered through COVID-19. Finally Chinese consumers want local brands over Adidas due to an increased sense of national pride

    China

    Canada considers expelling Chinese diplomats for targeting MP – BBC News and also worth reading in conjunction with Australia rethinks ‘quiet diplomacy’ tactic as Cheng Lei marks 1,000 days in Chinese detention | Australian foreign policy | The Guardian – Australia is rethinking how to help citizens embroiled in “hostage diplomacy” as it marks the 1,000th day of the journalist Cheng Lei’s detention in China. – good luck with that, it doesn’t take into account the securitisation of thinking in every aspect of China’s policies

    China raids multiple offices of international consultancy Capvision | Financial Times – this follows on from raids on Mintz Group and Bain & Company. Capvision is kind of like GLG win that it connects international investors and management consultants with experts

    Economics

    For China’s ‘young refuseniks,’ finding love comes at too high a price — Radio Free Asia – Young people are avoiding marriage, having children and buying a home amid tanking economy, concerns about future. To be fair you can also see this in the west. The key difference is that this flies in the face of where the Communist Party wants them to behave

    Energy

    What is really driving ExxonMobil’s clean energy commitments? | Financial Times – the decades long algae biofuels programme failed. Back when I worked in the oil industry at the start of my work life, ExxonMobil had the best research and development / innovation team in the oil industry. They were way ahead of the likes of Shell or BP. The heuristic within the industry went something along the lines of: BP could find oil anywhere, Occidental could get a contract to drill anywhere, Shell could market any product successfully and ExxonMobil could out-innovate the rest of them.

    Mobil 1 Synthetic Motor Oil
    Mobil 1 oil on the shelf at a motor factors courtesy of Mike Mozart

    For instance Mobil were decades ahead of everyone else with their Mobil 1 synthetic lubricating oil back in 1974. Castrol was processing petroleum oil and calling it synthetic, they were eventually caught out in 1998 – with Mobil winning a moral victory if not a court case. The point is that if ExxonMobil can’t get algae to work, I doubt any company can – energy desperately needs its semiconductor moment.

    Talking about a semiconductor moment, one of the places where this would be really welcome would be green hydrogen. I had hoped that Ireland would be able to convert its wind power bounty into generating hydrogen by electrolysis as a way of moving and storing energy in a way that electrical batteries can’t match.

    FMCG

    Nivea’s premiumisation strategy in China yielding success in face and body categories | Cosmetics Design – you can see an example of this in Nivea Cellular body wash – which shows a mix of product development and packaging innovation to create a premium offering.

    Health

    Only the Global-Health Emergency Has Ended – The Atlantic“This virus is here to stay. It is still killing, and it’s still changing,” Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the director general of the WHO – the cadence of an emergency might be finished but there is still subtantial health risk. It has declined to ‘only’ the fourth most common cause of death…

    After weight loss, Alzheimer’s may be next frontier for drugs like Ozempic | Reuters – there are medical trials already underway

    Klick Wire | HCPs prefer emails and ChatGPT is 10x more empathetic 

    Hong Kong femtech founders fight taboos and stigma, seek more investor support so city can rival Singapore as hub | South China Morning Post 

    Singapore based emergency nurses critique media and societal stereotypes and tropes.

    Ideas

    Why the U.S. should fight Cold War 2 – by Noah Smith

    Japan

    Japan’s ‘myth of security’ raises cyber attack risk | Financial Times

    Luxury

    Genesis G80 Electrified vs. BMW i4 M50 | MACAU DAILY TIMES 澳門每日時報 – the G80 is closer to a 7 series than the i4 which is somewhere between the 3 and the 5 series. Overall I would prefer to go with a Genesis given the reliability issues that BMWs have had for the past two decades.

    Materials

    UCF Researcher Creates World’s First Energy-saving Paint – Inspired by Butterflies | University of Central Florida News 

    Media

    Meta Has Lost The Pulse Of Its Customer Base As Automation Replaces Human Services | AdExchanger

    What happens when quants go ‘Mad Men’ | Financial Times

    Online

    No smoke without fire for ByteDance’s US struggles 

    Philippines

    More than 1,000 rescued in Pampanga ‘scam call center’ | ABS-CBN News – the Philippines have been doing their part in trying to combat transnational fraud

    Security

    TikTok spied on me. Why? | Financial Times 

    Exclusive: Chinese-made Hikvision CCTV cameras, accused of posing risk to national security, found on GCHQ building – Channel 4 News

    Software

    Volkswagen plans jobs shake-up at struggling software arm | Financial Times – it sounds like Symbian for cars, complete with the same organisational and project dysfunction. Read with Volkswagen’s troubled software division is getting new leadership. Again. | Ars Technica

    Raycast – AI framework app for Mac users recommended by my friend Anthony Mayfield

    Telecoms

    The Disconnect on Undersea Cable Security – Lawfare – The fibre-optic submarine cable sector is a vital, but ignored, part of the world’s critical infrastructure. Many members of Congress and the U.S. government, see the risks to subsea cables quite differently than cable owners and manufacturers. Brookings Institute’s Joseph Keller examines this disconnect, suggesting ways that the policy community can protect and advance this critical industry.

    Thailand

    Thailand legalised cannabis and an industry boom occurred. A key part is trying to integrate and provide value to the country’s hospitality, tourism and travel sectors.

    Web of no web

    Qualcomm continues to strengthen its automotive offering – Qualcomm acquiring auto-chip maker Autotalks in $350-400 million deal | Ctech

    Fourth Industrial Revolution slow to start in America – Asia Times 

    Wireless

    India smartphone shipment declined 16% in 1Q23, Xiaomi saw more than 40% fall | DigiTimes – Vivo seems to be the preferred brand over Xiaomi

  • NORA

    Last week I heard the acronym NORA mentioned with regards the kind of problems that Microsoft’s algorithm could solve. NORA stands for no one real answer. Search is already pretty good at answering questions like ‘what time is it in Osaka’ or ‘what is the capital of Kazakhstan’.

    In the mid-2000s NORA would have been called ‘knowledge search‘ by the people at Google, Yahoo! and Bing – who were the main search engine companies. So its not a new idea in search, despite what one might believe based on the hype around chatbot enabled search engines. ChatGPT and other related generative AI tools have been touted as possible routes to get to knowledge search.

    Knowledge search

    Back when I worked at Yahoo! the idea of knowledge search internally was about trying to carve out a space that useful and differentiated from Google’s approach as defined by their mission:

    To organise the world’s information and make it universally accessible and useful

    Our approach to search – Google

    Google was rolling out services that not only searched the web. It also covered maps, the content of books including rare libraries and academic journals. It was organising the key news stories and curating which publications were seen in relation to that story. It could tell you the time elsewhere in the world and convert measures from imperial to metric.

    Google’s Gmail set the standard in organising our personal information, making the email box more accessible and searchable than it had been previously. We take having a journaled hard drive for granted now, but at one time Google Desktop put a search of the files on your computer together with online services in one small search box.

    Google Desktop Mac

    Being as good as Google was just table stakes. So when I was at Yahoo! we had our own version of Google Desktop. We bought Konfabulator, that put real time data widgets on your desktop and were thinking about how to do them on the smartphone OS of the time Nokia’s Symbian S60. Konfabulator’s developer Arlo Rose went on to work on Yahoo!’s mobile experiences and Yahoo! Connected TV – a photo-smart TV system that was before the modern Apple TV apps. Tim Mayer led a project to build out an index of the web for Yahoo! as large, if not bigger than Google’s at the time. And all of these developments were just hygiene factors.

    My colleagues at Yahoo! were interested in opinions or NORA; which is where the idea of knowledge search came in. Knowledge search had a number of different angles to it:

    • Tagged content such as my Flickr photo library or social bookmarking provided content from consumers about a given site that could then be triangulated into trusted context, or used to train a machine learning model of what a cat looked like
    • Question and answer services like Quora, Yahoo! Answers and Naver’s Jisik In Service improved search. Naver managed to parlay this into becoming the number one search engine for Korea and Koreans. Google tried to replicate this success with Knol and failed
    • Reviews. Google managed to parlay reviews into improving its mobile search offering. Google acquired Zagat in 2011. This enabled Google to build a reputation for good quality local restaurant reviews. It eventually sold the business on again to another restaurant review site The Infatuation

    The ChatGPT type services in search are considered to provide an alternative to human-powered services. They create NORA through machine generated content based on large data sets trawled from the web.

    Energy consumption

    A conventional Google internet search was claimed to consume 0.3 watt/hours of power according to Google sources who responded to the New York Times back in 2011. This was back when Google claimed that it was processing about one billion (1,000,000,000) searches per day. It accounted for just over 12 million of the 260,000,000 watt hours Google’s global data centres use per day. The rest of it comes from app downloads, maps, YouTube videos.

    But we also know that the number of Google searches ramped up considerably from those 2011 publicly disclosed numbers

    Google global search volume

    The driver for this increase was mobile search including more energy intensive Google Lens and voice activated searches thanks to Android.

    Large language models (LLMs) are computationally intensive and this will result in a corresponding rise in energy consumption. That also has implications in terms of business profit margins as well as ESG related considerations.

    Legal liabilities

    With NORA content being created by machine learning services, it might be different to the previous generation of knowledge search services. These services were platforms, but machine learning services become publishers.

    This becomes important for a few reasons

    • Increased costs (while they aren’t using an army of writers, they are using a lot of computing power to generate the responses)
    • Legal protections (in the US)
    • Intellectual property and plagiarism issues, currently they can handle it just by taking down the content. Once they become a publisher rather than a platform things become more complicated

    “no provider or user of an interactive computer service shall be treated as the publisher or speaker of any information provided by another information content provider”

    Communications Decency Act of 1996.Section 230

    Section 230 has been repeatedly used to regulate Facebook, Google et al in a lax manner as they haven’t been ‘publishers’, with ChatGPT this may change. The question of whether an algorithm is a creator has some precedence. Financial reporting has used machine learning to create news reports on company financial results over a number of years. Combine that with the general political antipathy towards Meta and Alphabet from both of the main US political parties and things could get interesting very fast.

    It is interesting that OpenAI is putting a lot of thought around ethics in LLM, which will impact future services and they probably hope stave off regulation.

    Regulated industries and liability

    Given an LLM’s ability to make things up it can:

    • Gives advice without pointing out health risks by creating a workout plan or a weight loss diets
    • Gives bad legal advice
    • Infringe regulations surrounding different industries like financial services

    This is just the tip of the iceberg that NORA content powered by LLMs face.

    Business model disruption

    Search advertising as we know it has been the same for the past two decades. The disruption to the look and feel of search results through Bing’s chat response has a negative impact on Google’s advertising model with the search ads along the top and down the right hand side of the search engine results page. Instead you’ll end up with the ‘correct’ answer and no reason to click on the search adverts.

    Currently if a non-relevant site shows up in Google. The lack of relevance is blamed on the site rather than the search engine. However an error in a machine learning created NORA response will see the search engine blamed.

    Which is pretty much what happened when Google demonstrated their efforts in the area. Inaccuracies in a demonstration held in Paris cause the share price of Alphabet to decline by 7 percent in one day. Technology news site TechCrunch even went as far as to say that Google is losing control.

    Microsoft probably doesn’t have a lot to lose in Bing. So integrating ChatGPT’s LLM might give them a few percentage points of search market share. Microsoft thinks that each percent gain would be worth 2 billion dollars in extra revenue.

    The 2 billion number is an estimate and we don’t know how the use of NORA results generated by LLM will affect bidding on search keywords. That 2 billion might be a lot less.

    Is NORA the user problem that Google and Bing’s use of LLMs are fixing?

    Around about the time that Google enjoyed a massive uptake in search it also changed search to meet a mobile paradigm. Research type searches done by everyone from brand planners to recruiters and students have declined in quality to an extent that some have openly questioned is Google dead?

    Google search box

    Boolean search no longer works, Danny Sullivan at Google admitted as much here. While Google hasn’t trumpeted the decline of Boolean search, ‘power’ users have noticed and they aren’t happy. That narrative together with the botched demo the other week reinforced each other.

    Unfortunately, due to the large number of searches that don’t require Boolean strings, Google wasn’t going to go back. Instead, chat-based interfaces done right might offer an alternative for more tailored searches that would be accessible to power users and n00bs alike?

    Technology paradigm shift?

    At first the biggest shock that myself and others had seeing the initial reports was how Google and Microsoft could have been left in the dust of OpenAI. Building models requires a large amount of computing power to help train and run.

    Microsoft had already been doing interesting things in machine learning with Cortana on Azure cloud services and Google had been doing things with TensorFlow. Amazon Web Services provides a set of machine learning tools and the infrastructure to run it on.

    Alphabet subsidiary DeepMind had already explored LLM and highlighted 21 risks associated with the technology, which is probably why Google hadn’t been looking for a ChatGPT type front end to search. The risks highlighted included areas such as:

    • Discrimination, Hate speech and Exclusion although there is research to indicate that there might be solutions to this problem
    • Information Hazards – there has already been a case study on how an LLM can be influenced to display a socially conservative perspective.
    • Misinformation Harms – researchers claimed that LLMs were “prone to hallucinating” (liable to just make stuff up)
    • Malicious Uses
    • Human-Computer Interaction Harms
    • Environmental and Socioeconomic harms

    Stories that have appeared about ChatGPT and Bing’s implementation of it seem to validate the DeepMind discussion paper on LLMs.

    The Microsoft question of why they partnered with ChatGPT rather than rolling out their own product is more interesting. Stephen Wolframs in-depth explanation of how ChatGPT works is worth a read (and a couple of re-reads to actually understand it). Microsoft’s efforts in probabilistic machine learning looks very similar in nature to ChatGPT. As far back as 1996, then CEO Bill Gates was publicly talking about how Microsoft’s expertise in Bayesian networks as a competitive advantage against rivals. Microsoft relied on research and the Bayesian network model put forward by Judea Pearl which he describes in his book Heuristics.

    Given the resources and head start that Microsoft had, why were they not further along and instead faced being disrupted by OpenAI? Having worked in the past with Microsoft as a client, I know they won’t buy into anything that they can build cheaper. That raises bigger questions about Microsoft’s operation over the past quarter of a century and its wider innovation story to date.

    Flash in the pan

    At times the technology sector looks more like a fashion industry driven by fads more than anything else. A case in point being last years focus on the metaverse. The resulting hike in interest rates has seen investment drop in the field. Businesses like Microsoft and Meta have shut down a lot of their efforts, or have scaled back. It is analogous to the numerous ‘AI winters‘ that have happened over the past 50 years as well.

    Bing’s implementation of LLM is already garnering criticism from the likes of the New York Times. This new form of search may end up being a flash-in-the-pan like Clubhouse. The latent demand for NORA in search will still be there, but LLM might not be the panacea to solve it. Consumers may continue to rely on Reddit and question-and-answer platforms like Quora as an imperfect solution in the meantime.

    In summary….

    • NORA content generated by LLMs represent a new way to solve a long known about challenge in online search
    • NORA as a concept was previously called knowledge search
    • NORA content competes with: social media including Reddit, specialist review sites including Yelp or OpenRice and question and answer services including Quora
    • ChatGPT and similar services affect human perceptions of search and the experience makes them more critical of the search engine response is not of an acceptable standard
    • LLMs represent a number of challenges that large technology companies have discussed publicly, but were still attractive for some reason
    • ChatGPT shows up the the decades of research that Google, Microsoft and Amazon have put into machine learning, this will negatively affect investors attitudes to these companies and merits a more critical nuanced examination of ‘innovation’. These large companies seem to be struggling to put applied innovation into practice. Microsoft buying into ChatGPT is essentially an admission of failure in its own efforts over at least 3 decades. Even ChatGPT’s deeply flawed product is considered to be better than nothing at all by these large technology companies
    • Use of ChatGPT like services expose Google and Bing to business risks that are legal and regulatory in nature. It could even result in loss of life
    • ChatGPT’s rise has surfaced deep seated concerns amongst technologists, early adopters, power users and investors about Google’s ability to execute on innovation successfully now (and in the future). Google’s search product has been weakened over time by its focus on mobile search dominance. Alphabet as a whole is no longer seen as a ‘leader’
    • LLMs, if successful would disrupt the online advertising business model around search engine marketing
    • ChatGPT and its underlying technology do not represent a paradigm shift
    • There is evidence to suggest that ChatGPT and other LLM powered chat search interfaces could turn out to be a fad rather than a future trend. The service as implemented has underwhelmed
  • Living with the iPhone 12 Pro Max

    iPhone 12 Pro Max transition

    I moved to an Apple iPhone 12 Pro Max from an Apple iPhone 11 Pro Max. That’s an important  factor to bear in mind when one sees phone comparisons. Secondly, I don’t earn my living doing phone reviews, so my reactions are likely to be less dramatic than a professional phone reviewer. Instead, I am trying to reflect a view of what its like to live with the device. 

    Smartphones overall

    You would have to look pretty hard to find a dreadful premium or mid-range smartphone nowadays. Some of the lower end Motorolas are sluggish performers, have the build quality of an early Samsung Galaxy and a mic that cuts in and out. But for the average iPhone user, a phone that is five years old is still a cracking phone, that could go another few years with a replacement battery. 

    The cameras are more than adequate for snapshots or document scanning, but no amount of software will make up for the quality of the lens in a smartphone versus a semi-professional photographers camera. And for most people, that’s enough. Performance has reduced to incremental improvements in real world performance. And in this respect smartphones mirror personal computers; as the huge perceived performance gains of the early computers flattened out. 

    I no longer need a Mophie Juice Pack case to make the iPhone last through a work day like I did with the iPhone 3GS. Although for long trips away from my desk, I still a power pack and a cable in my bag. This is as much about having the reassurance of knowing that I can run down my battery with lots of Maps usage if I have to, rather than a real need. Increased battery life is partly a function of screen size. The larger the screen, the larger the battery. Device screen sizes have grown over the years. Secondly, chip design and system software have focused on power consumption as part of a decade plus long focus on computing power per watt. 

    I still miss the keyboard and form-factor of my old Nokia E90; despite its flaky Symbian software. But I no longer miss its superior battery life, or the ability to remove the battery and replace it with fully charged spare. 

    Out of the box

    All of the iPhone 12 models come in smaller packaging than previous devices. The primary reason for this is Apple no longer supplies a USB charger. The excuse that Apple provided was that it was environmentally friendly. The problem with this is there are some awfully unsafe USB chargers available online as an alternative. The second thing that was missing from the box was a set of Apple wired earbuds. Again this was put down to being environmentally friendly by Apple. Though you could also come to two less flattering conclusions:

    • Apple is converting an insignificant amount of Android users, but only converting existing Apple iPhone customers. So headphones with a Lightning connector wasn’t needed and Apple could save on costs
    • It was a cynical ploy by Apple to drive AirPod wireless headphone sales even higher

    I can understand why Chinese netizens considered both moves to Apple shortchanging customers. I agree with them.

    China

    It is also interesting to note that all the main live-streaming platforms in China simultaneously decided to cancel live-streaming of the iPhone 12 series launch.

    Of course the Chinese government / Communist Party of China had nothing to do in coordinating this – honest….

    Handset design

    When you take the iPhone 12 Pro Max handset out of the box, you immediately notice its size and weight.  It has steep stainless steel sides like an iPhone 4 on steroids. 

    Apple iPhone 12 Pro Max
    iPhone 12 Pro Max view from the back of the phone

    Usually the heft of a premium phone feels reassuring. But at first, holding the phone was a dissonant experience. There were a few reasons for this:

    The change in design language from smooth round edges on handsets from the iPhone 6 onwards, to a flat edge of the iPhone 4 and 5.

    It was the first time that an iPhone model has become thicker than the previous generation of iPhone.

    The change in design with its thicker flat sides has little difference in putting on a protective case, but removing the case is noticeably harder.

    After three days or so usage, the iPhone 12 felt perfectly normal as I got used to it.

    Camera

    As I said at the outset to this post, this like other modern premium smartphones, are good at taking snapshots. The main difference between my iPhone 11 Max Pro and iPhone 12 Max Pro was a slight increase in optical magnification. The rest of the mild photographic improvements were available in the iOS 14 software for both new and older iPhones.

    Networking

    The big selling point for Apple on the iPhone 12 Pro Max is its ability use 5G networks. The problem is that for consumers 5G doesn’t have a compelling killer application at the moment.

    In that respect, it reminds me a lot of my time working with Cap Gemini as a client when video calling and Quibi like sports and entertainment clips were thought to be the killer app for 3G.

    The reality is that it took wi-fi and 4G made video to make calls work, even then the product isn’t perfect. Shorter sellable video content is still looking for a market. 5G does have industrial niche market opportunities.  Secondly, 5G network rollout means that there will be probably three generations of future iPhones before the 5G wireless function becomes useful. I still live in a neighbourhood in central London where I often lose 4G coverage. 5G will require many more cell sites to provide the same level of coverage. 

    Cellphone reception seems to be better; I don’t know if this is down to the handset or my carrier building out their infrastructure further during the lockdown.

    My house has never had great cellphone reception during my time living here. It backs on to a railway line with overhead electrification and only had windows the side facing away from the railway. Yet I am now seeing two bars of signal in parts of the house where I previously would only have had Wi-Fi or a single bar of 3G. 

    Conclusion

    Unsurprisingly, the iPhone 12 Pro Max is an accomplished handset. It offers good battery life, responsive performance, a great screen, a good camera and is well made. But there is insufficient reason to upgrade if you have an iPhone made in the last three years. You already have a good well made phone. It has a good camera and will run the latest version of iOS.

    If your battery no longer holds the charge, the way it once did, Apple offers a service to replace the battery at a very reasonable cost.

    More design related posts here.

    More information and selected reviews

    iPhone 12 launching without earbuds or wall chargers is compared to eating without chopsticks in China | South China Morning Post 

    Shenzhen/Huawei: the other Bay Area | Financial TimesThe impression of military manoeuvres by alternative means was reinforced by Tencent, another Shenzhen resident. It was among big Chinese social and video platforms including iQiyi and Weibo, that simultaneously cancelled the livecast of Apple’s iPhone 12 launch

    Kibbles & Bytes #1122: Apple Releases Four iPhone 12 Models and the HomePod mini – Don nails the assessment of 5G in the latest edition of his newsletter.

    Daring Fireball: The iPhone 12 and iPhone 12 Pro – interesting thoughts on the iPhone 12s. What Gruber doesn’t touch on is the radio improvements, particularly in 4G

  • Nokia N950

    Nokia N950 origins

    The Nokia N950 was designed at a weird time. Nokia’s position as the premier smartphone maker was under siege from Android and iPhone after seeing off the Palm OS and numerous iterations of Windows Phone. Nokia had missed the boat on devices with capacitive touch displays. It was using a smartphone operating system that was starting to show its age, a bit like PalmOS did previously. Like Palm, Nokia wasted far too much time coming up with its next generation OS, which gave Google and Apple the opportunity gap that they needed.

    Part of the problem was that Nokia was wrong for the right reasons:

    • Different consumers do need different types of phones, which is why HMD have managed to resurrect modern versions of classic Nokia feature phone designs
    • Phones are better if they can be operated one-handed. Whereas Google and Apple busied themselves designing computers that happened to be phones
    • Phones needed to be made down to a cost. So the handsets were different on the outside but had common ‘guts’, which meant that premium products could  be underpowered

    Nokia had their own answer to Android and iOS in MeeGo which grew out of work that Intel and Nokia had separately done on mobile Linux. Nokia was partnering with Intel partly because it believed that Intel was the future of mobile.

    The Nokia N950 was a development handset showcasing this operating system in action. It was similar and related to the N9.

    The N9 was released in a limited amount of markets were it was successful. However the N9 success story was overshadowed by the larger business problems Nokia faced in its transition from Symbian and feature phones to Windows Phone.

    There were an estimated 5,000 Nokia N950 handsets made in total, which went to the Nokia global developer community. Technically there are loaned devices rather than given to developers. They occasionally appear on eBay going for 1,000GBP+

    Up close with the Nokia N950

    At first glance the Nokia N950 looked like a chimera of the N9 and the N8 with a slide out keyboard riffing on the Communicator form factor that Nokia pioneered.

    It makes sense to list the differences with the N9 first of all:

    • The Nokia N950 had a TFT LCD screen roughly the same size as a Nokia E90 Communicator, but with a higher resolution. The N9 had an AMOLED screen which is slightly smaller and has a slightly higher resolution
    • The N9 was made from the same machined polycarbonate body that then made its appearance on Nokia Lumia models. The Nokia N950 has a case made from a mix of machined and stamped aluminium parts and came only in black (though I have seen pictures of un-anodised devices as well. These were probably pre-production prototypes)
    • They had different camera modules that performed broadly the same
    • The Nokia N950 had a pop under keyboard similar to  the N8 and E7. More on that a bit later on
    • The Nokia N950 had 8.5GB of usable storage compared to up to 64GB of memory in the N9
    • The N9 has a slightly larger battery than the N950, but the difference wouldn’t have been noticeable due to the difference in screen technology

    What you end up with is a phone that still looks modern (partly due to its anodised black case making the screen edge harder to spot.

    Nokia N950

    The device is slow compared to modern devices but is speedy for its time. The device flipped from landscape to portrait mode, but this wasn’t perfectly implemented.

    Nokia N950

    It had a pop under keyboard which allows the device to have a really shallow design in comparison to Communicator devices. However it does leave the screen exposed to damage. The past decade of Gorilla Glass™ screens on iPhones and Android handsets proves that the Corning wonder material is not invulnerable.

    Nokia N950

    The problem with the design means that you end up with a shallow area for the keyboard. The Nokia N950 like the E7 and N8 don’t have as full a featured keyboard as the Communicator devices.

    10 - E90 keyboard

    Here’s a keyboard from the E90 by comparison. When you were using the Nokia N950 you end up with a virtual keyboard on the screen  providing the tab,  ctrl, esc and alt keys, as well as very commonly used symbols.  Which begs the question of how useful the keyboard would really be for developers?

    Compared to the modern iPhone, the N950 meets the goal of a mobile computing device much better. You can write longer emails and documents on the keyboard than the iPhone. The camera is adequate for most people’s needs and it shows in some respects how little the smartphone concept has moved on over the past seven years.

    Could the Nokia N950 been the future?

    Historically Nokia’s Symbian phones had been built on TI’s OMAP processors; but these didn’t have a roadmap for 4G wireless. Nokia had two choices bet on Qualcomm or Intel. Qualcomm had come out on top in IP related disputes, which probably made Intel seem more attractive. Intel was also championing WiMax as a 4G standard.

    WiMax had limited adoption at best, Nokia was on the wrong side of networking standards and eventually was forced to use Qualcomm processors in Windows Phone reference designs.

    `Nokia could have gone to Snapdragon processors but its joint relationship with Intel on the software side of things would have been tainted. There is also no guarantee that Qualcomm would have been a helpful partner given the history between the two companies and that both Android and iOS devices used Qualcomm products.

    Secondly, Nokia bet all the marketing budget on the Lumia device launch which left nothing for the MeeGo devices.

    Finally, Nokia would not have been able to get out of the legal contract that they had with Microsoft. The only way MeeGo would have stood a chance is if the Nokia board had not approved Stephen Elop’s proposal to go with Windows, rival schemes to go with Android and bet on the home team.

    • At the time the internal Nokia option would have looked high risk. Board members would have been familiar with historic project problems on Meamo and then MeeGo
    • Secondly Nokia had a history of buying in new generation operating systems. It licensed GEOS  for the Nokia Communicator 9000 and 9110. It licensed and then bought into Psion’s OS business unit, which became Symbian
    • Nokia’s feature phones ran on homegrown technology built on Intelligent System Architecture (ISA), also called the Nokia Operating System (NOS)
    More information

    TIMELINE: Qualcomm vs Nokia patents battle | Reuters
    Qualcomm loses GSM patent fight with Nokia in German court | Ars Technica
    Why Qualcomm Folded to Nokia | Bloomberg BusinessWeek (paywall)
    The ‘I Wish I Had Known This’ List about 101 Things Wrong With Windows Phone Smartphones Like Nokia Lumia | Communities Dominate Brands
    How Many Lumia Sales? As Nokia (and Microsoft) ashamed to reveal number, lets count – and compare to N9 MeeGo sales | Communities Dominate Brands
    Nokia N8 review | GSMArena