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  • Luxury wellness

    The rise of luxury wellness comes down to a convergence of different factors that have reshaped both the luxury and wellness industries.

    • Products ain’t what they used to be
    • Existing high-end health and luxury wellness
    • Luxury wellness and consumer behaviours
    • Wellness has become blended with health, providing opportunities for luxury brands.
    • GLP-1 changed everything

    Products ain’t what they used to be

    Before we dive into luxury wellness, it’s helpful to understand where the luxury industry stands at the moment. The strategies that have worked since the early 1980s now seem to have come unstuck. To make sense of this shift, it’s worth reviewing the past and current landscape.

    The new luxury

    There’s a perception (which I believe is largely false) that the traditional attributes of luxury have fallen by the wayside. Scarcity, quality, craftsmanship, design, and heritage are thought to no longer matter.

    A classic example of this viewpoint is Jaguar’s attempt to discard its heritage and reinvent itself as something new. I would argue that while Jaguar may have been prestigious in automotive terms, it was never truly a luxury brand. Jaguars suffered from quality issues that should not have occurred, and they struggled in the premium segment of the market, remaining loss-making for years. Whether or not Jaguar will succeed in transforming into an electric competitor to Rolls-Royce remains to be seen.

    Another aspect to consider is how global supply chains can now deliver products of comparable quality to those made by artisans. I have a bit more sympathy for this viewpoint. However, these global supply chains were originally trained to act as subcontractors for luxury brands that pursued massification, cutting quality standards along the way.

    Consumers seem to undergo a ‘luxury maturity journey’. This journey is accelerating in certain markets. What Japan experienced over 30 years, China went through in just 10. Countries like Thailand are even moving through this journey faster. Over time, consumers in these markets have begun to move away from obvious logos and status symbols to place greater value on quality and experiences. This shift partly explains why quiet luxury is gained traction around the world.

    In countries like China and India, local artisans and ateliers are highly appreciated. This shift means that historic luxury brands are likely to face disruption, just as other sectors have been transformed by Chinese firms. And this is happening at a time when many luxury brands are becoming less ‘luxurious’ by opting for a global mass-market approach.

    The pioneer in this approach was fashion designer Pierre Cardin.

    Pioneer Pierre Cardin

    Luxury went downmarket through licensing, a strategy pioneered by fashion designer Pierre Cardin. In the early 1970s, he saw the potential of licensing, recognising that the demand for goods bearing a fashionable name presented a lucrative opportunity. Cardin’s insight was that luxury goods, in the post-war economic boom, were no longer only for the ultra-wealthy but also for the middle class. His brand signed over 850 agreements in 140+ countries, covering everything from clothing and accessories to furniture, household products, cars, and fragrances.

    The ubiquity of Pierre Cardin products diluted scarcity, quality, and blurred the brand story. He later repeated this process with French restaurant Maxim’s, demonstrating that luxury was as much about experience as it was about the product.

    1981 Evolution I by Pierre Cardin

    When you could buy a Pierre Cardin wallet or suitcase from Argos, what did it say about you? It certainly wasn’t a great status symbol. Other brands, like Ralph Lauren, did a better job of choosing their licensees.

    LVMH leads the way

    Bernard Arnault supercharged a formula for Louis Vuitton that Henry Racamier had pioneered when he built out an international network of Louis Vuitton-owned boutiques, including Tokyo and Osaka, Japan by 1978.

    Racamier’s formula consisted of two parts:

    • Louis Vuitton sold to the middle class as well as the very wealthy.
    • Louis Vuitton controlled its products route to market offering control over the experience, premium pricing and perceived aspects of scarcity.

    For the next four decades, LVMH went on a remarkable growth trajectory, acquiring luxury and beauty brands, duty-free retail, and even hotels. LVMH rode the rise of Japan, up to the end of the bubble economy, then moved on to Korea, Singapore, and Hong Kong. China’s luxury market skyrocketed when the country joined the WTO, solidifying its place in the global economy.

    The United States continued to be a steady consumer of luxury products.

    During the 1990s, French retailer Pinault-Printemps-Redoute (PPR), now known as Kering, began replicating LVMH’s success, starting its own luxury conglomerate with the acquisition of Gucci in 1999. Meanwhile, Richemont acquired a number of legacy luxury brands as an adjunct to its predecessor’s tobacco business in the early 1990s and then continued to build.

    The internet expanded access to luxury products through multi-brand retailers like Net-A-Porter and Farfetch, driving significant growth. These online retailers competed with top-tier department stores like Bon Marché, Lane Crawford, and Harrods, who slowly built up their e-commerce capabilities.

    Eventually, brands embraced direct-to-consumer online stores to complement their global networks of boutiques. This shift is why newer mass-market multi-brand online boutiques have struggled:

    • Matchesfashion went into administration and took Browns with it.
    • Farfetch was sold in a firesale to Korean e-tailer Coupang.
    • YOOX was merged with Net-A-Porter and eventually bought out by MyTheresa from Richemont.

    Even luxury brands themselves have encountered a few hurdles along the way:

    • The end of Japan’s asset bubble in 1992
    • 2008 financial crisis
    • Xi Jinping’s move towards common prosperity which peaked in campaigns during 2013 & 2021
    • COVID-19 and post-COVID economy

    Luxury sector fallout

    By mid-2023, the luxury industry started to show signs of stagnation, with low or no growth. Multi-brand luxury e-commerce sites either went bankrupt or were bought out. A few notable beneficiaries included:

    • Mytheresa – a German e-tailer that focused on the wealthiest clients in this sector rather than broader middle class appeal.
    • Hermès – who are focused on the high end of the luxury market.
    • Brunello Cucinelli – a focused ‘quiet luxury’ brand known for their high-end cashmere garments

    The key issue with many luxury brands (Burberry being a prime example) is that they lost the essence of what made them truly luxurious. As they shifted from style to fashion, and from artisan craftsmanship to mass production in China, they lost their uniqueness or incomparability as Jean-Noël Kapferer put it.

    While champagne can only come from the region around Reims, most Burberry products are made in China, with only two remaining factories in the UK, including a textile mill.

    The key issue with many luxury brands (Burberry being a prime example) is that they lost the essence of what made them truly luxurious.  As they moved from style to fashion, and, artisan to Made In China – they lost uniqueness or incomparability as Jean-Noël Kapferer would describe it.

    While champagne can only come from the region around the city of Reims, most Burberry products are made in China as well as a couple of remaining factories in the UK – one of which is a textile mill.

    Louis Vuitton x Supreme on the secondary market

    A second aspect of the change was blurring the line between streetwear and luxury brands. Luxury looked cheap and streetwear looked exceptionally premium. The nadir was Balenciaga’s collaboration with sports apparel brand Under Armour.

    Ways forward

    Given that the mass growth of luxury products has hit a ceiling, what options do luxury companies have?

    The focus has been a slow pivot to services and experiences. For instance, Panerai has the Panerai Xperience Programme where purchasing a limited edition watch gives you access to unique experiences, such as training with US or Italian special forces operators.

    LVMH owns three luxury hotel chains: Cheval Blanc, Bulgari Hotels & Resorts, and Belmond. Dior has spas in Cheval Blanc Paris and other non-LVMH hotels like The Dorchester in London. The increasing focus on wellness makes sense for luxury conglomerates.

    Given the challenging circumstances in the luxury sector, Infosys’ outlook for luxury wellness presents a tempting opportunity. The global premium and luxury wellness segments have been performing well. The global market for luxury items was valued at approximately $366.2 billion in 2023 and is projected to expand at a CAGR of 6.8% from 2024. By comparison the Swiss watch industry is projected to grow by less than three percent.

    Existing high-end health and luxury wellness

    Luxury wellness has already been well established, there high end spas and resorts are in numerous countries, in particular Switzerland and Germany. Some of these are within large hotel groups like Mandarin Oriental.

    There is also a range of multi-generation family owned businesses with low-key brands and expertise that would be hard to replicate. Some of these businesses may go back as far as the middle ages. For instance, Grand Resort Bad Ragaz can trace its history as a source of ‘health and vitality’ since 1242.

    German doctor Alexander Spengler was responsible for attracting rich medical tourists to Switzerland in 1853, convinced of the benefits of clean mountain air.

    Switzerland, in particular, started to benefit from an agglomeration of medical expertise; for instance Davos was known for specialising in pulmonary health with dedicated spas.

    Switzerland’s continued lead in private healthcare has had a positive knock-on effect in wellness related products and services. This is particularly apropos given Swiss offerings focusing on longevity.

    In marketing terms ‘Swiss formula’ is used to sell St Ive’s beauty products and a range of multi-vitamin products by various brands. St Ives has an American origin, being part of Alberto Culver, which was then bought by Unilever.

    While Spengler was enamoured with Switzerland, Germany has a long history of health resorts especially thermal spas. It also has a network of world-leading private medical clinics similar to Switzerland.

    German high-end health resort company Lanserhof is a relative newcomer. Over four decades they have progressively built their offering with a strong focus on longevity.

    Luxury conglomerates have an opportunity, and are used to accumulating small family brands. But it it is a long term project for them to go into the market place. Blurring the line between its beauty products and wellness is an easier ask, hence, Dior’s spa offering.

    Gulf countries are looking to provide services in this area and have made big strides in building capability to attract medical tourism, which is the backbone from which a country brand in luxury wellness can be built.

    The current luxury wellness space is diverse fragmented and caters for a wide range of health needs from medical to relaxation.

    Luxury wellness and consumer behaviours

    More people are prioritising their health, taking a holistic view to wellness encompassing both physical, emotional and mental health, what Statista described as ‘omni-wellness’. They are driving demand for products and experiences that support this lifestyle. This includes everything from exercise, self-care, and sobriety to getting private tests run to double-check, or instead of seeing their doctor.

    Coming out of COVID-19, there was an increased consumer focus on a number of different aspects of health and wellness:

    • Sleep quality
    • Mental health
    • ‘Immune’ health

    This intersects with the luxury market as consumers are willing to invest in premium products and services that enhance their well-being.

    On the high-end what does luxury wellness look like?

    • Personalised wellness experiences. Consumers look for customised solutions based on their individual wants and needs. Technology and data enabled brands like L’Oreal and Unilever to offer individual recommendations and drive consumer engagement. Technology integration has been a key enabler.
    • Health and beauty interconnection. Consumers spend more in products and experiences that enhance their well-being, these are opportunities for the premium and luxury industries. Consumers see well-being products and experiences as an investment in themselves, with the concepts health and beauty as inseparable in their minds, particularly for younger cohorts.
    • Scientifically-backed products rather than more ‘new age’ or alternative therapies. Consumers have increased interest in beauty innovations that leverage technology and scientific evidence to address their needs. There is a latent demand for evidence around the world, Mintel cited 85% of Indian consumers agreed that beauty brands should provide more scientific evidence to validate their claims. This is notable given the rise over the past decade of guru Baba Ramdev and his brand Patanjali Ayurved that sells traditional products in the personal care category.
    • Longevity. Silicon Valley has been obsessed with longevity, the go-to example being Bryan Johnson. Kantar claims that a desire for longevity has moved beyond Silicon Valley. Consumers are prioritising longevity; looking for preventative solutions that support wellness at every life stage. This presents opportunities to offer products and services that for specific age-related concerns.

    But medicince itself has thrown up a wildcard for the luxury sector including luxury wellness.

    GLP-1 changed everything for luxury

    I worked on the global launch of a weight management drug that went on to become used more by the rich and famous than the people it was intended for. If I had one a-ha moment, it occurred during an episode of South Park.

    “Rich people get Ozempic, poor people get body positivity”

    The rate of growth in these drugs is slowing down but not before GLP-1s had affected consumption habits. Size inclusivity that had been making progress in fashion was thrown into reverse.

    There is anecdotal evidence that GLP-1 drugs don’t only change the patient’s relationship with food, but also affects enjoyment in general. This has hit premium alcohol sales and high-end restaurants. The idea of ‘lack of desire’ has implications for the concept of luxury in general.

    Every trend has a counter-indicator

    Trends are never a clean absolute truth. There is almost a Newtonian push in the opposite direction. Political and socially progressive movements begat a corresponding reactionary movement based around online personalities and political populism.

    It would be remiss of me if I only showed you one side of the coin on luxury wellness. Haines McGregor have a perspective that claims that self-care has been replaced by indulgence, which feels at odds with the direction of travel for luxury wellness. Examples of indulgent brands include:

    More information

    Pierre Cardin, designer who transformed fashion in the 1960s, dies at 98 | Washington Post

    How luxury brands can stand out when craft becomes a commodity | WARC

    China’s beauty market is a sight for sore eyes | FT

    LVMH quarterly sales drop as luxury group warns of ‘uncertain’ outlook | FT

    Ferrari, Hermès lead global luxury brand growth in 2024: Interbrand | Luxury Daily

    Deluxe – how luxury lost its lustre written by Dana Thomas

    Kapferer on Luxury: How Luxury Brands Can Grow Yet Remain Rare written by Jean-Noël Kapferer

    Is it stylish to be fit? | FT

    How luxury priced itself out of the market | FT

    The Vogue Business Spring/Summer 2025 size inclusivity report | Vogue Business – GLP-1s blamed for stalled progress

    Hermès chief eyes haute couture push as Paris house rides out luxury gloom

    Burberry shares tumble to 15-year low amid questions over its luxury brand status – Retail Gazette

    The Collectability of Parmigiani Fleurier | Phillips

    How ‘luxury shame’ will shape sales in China for the rest of 2024 | Vogue Business

    Where to start with multisensory marketing | WARC – 61% of consumers looking for brands that can “ignite intense emotions”. Immersive experiences that are holistic tap into people’s emotions and linger in the memory. It’s also an opportunity for using powerful storytelling to communicate a brand story.

    How Ozempic is reshaping the resale market | Vogue Business – Poshmark’s data reveals a significant surge in plus-size women’s apparel listings on the platform over the past two years, including a 103 per cent increase in size 3XL listings, 80 per cent in size 4XL, and a 73 per cent rise in size 5XL. The company also reported a 78 per cent increase in new listings mentioning “weight loss” in the title or description as sellers look to get rid of items that no longer fit.

    Luxury brands roll out 50% discounts as Chinese shoppers rein in spending | FT

    Is Burberry Still a ‘Made in Britain’ Brand? | Fashion Global Conscious Fashion

    What does Hong Kong airport smell of? Or your go-to hotel? The business of scent branding | South China Morning Post

    Following a record year, the stalled luxury goods market faces a dilemma between catering to top clientele and reaching new audiences amid ongoing complexities | Bain & Company

    Yoox Net-a-Porter exits China to focus on more profitable markets

    Understanding Desire in the Age of Ozempic – The Atlantic

    100-Pound Weight Loss: My health improved. My self-esteem didn’t. | Slate

    David Beckham is ‘strategic investor’ in Hong Kong’s Prenetics to set up IM8 health brand | South China Morning Post – IM8 will focus on “cutting-edge” consumer health products, the Nasdaq-listed Prenetics said, without divulging the financial details of Beckham’s investment

    Inside China’s Psychoboom – JSTOR Daily – mental illness has transformed from a bourgeois Western taboo into a legitimate public health concern.

    The consequences of the psychoboom are both logical and contradictory. As the Chinese economy has expanded and citizens have grown wealthier, the demands of everyday life have grown in number and kind, expanding from physiological and safety concerns to a desire for love, esteem, and self-actualization. At the same time, such desires run counter to traditional Chinese values like the age-old concept of Confucian filial piety and the relatively new  ideology imposed by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), both of which place the well-being of the collective above the happiness of the individual.

    ‘Spas and longevity clinics’: private members’ clubs shift focus to wellness | Health & wellbeing | The Guardian

    Welcome to the Experience Economy | Harvard Business Review – courtesy of Nigel Scott

    The “Why Now” for Healthcare – by Rex Woodbury

    How brands can leverage a new era of luxury in Asia | The WARC Podcast

    The Future of Indulgence – Haines McGregor

    ACCENTURE – Life Trends 2025

    ACCOR_The New Quality Of Time Report 2024

    EUROMONITOR PASSPORT – Top Global Consumer Trends 2025

    FORESIGHT FACTORY – Trending 2025

    INFOSYS – CPG-industry-outlook

    IPSOS – Global Trends 10th Anniversary Edition

    KANTAR – Top Global Consumer Trends 2025

    MINTEL – 2025 Global Beauty and Personal Care Trends

    PUBLICIS SAPIENT – Guide to Next Consumer Products 2025

    PUBLICIS SAPIENT – Guide to Next Retail 2025

    SYNERGY – Nutrition 2025-2026 Trend Report

    STATISTA – Consumer Trends 2025

  • Interpublic acquisition by Omnicom

    Interpublic disclosure

    I have worked at Interpublic twice during my career. Once at the very start of my career and more recently at McCann Health. I was never vested in Interpublic stock and I don’t own any Interpublic or Omnicom shares. This is not financial advice I am not telling you what you should do.

    This post is not intended to be, and shall not constitute, an offer to buy or sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities, or a solicitation of any vote or approval, nor shall there be any sale of securities in any jurisdiction in which such offer, solicitation or sale would be unlawful prior to registration or qualification under the securities laws of any such jurisdiction.

    I am pointing out the bits in discussions that I found interesting, and some bits that I found deathly dull, but pertinent.

    The shape of it

    The acquisition would be done by issuing stock. It wouldn’t involve Omnicom’s cash reserves or raising debt to make the purchase. Following the deal, the new Omnicom would be owned by

    • 60.6% of former existing Omnicom shareholders
    • 39.4% of former Interpublic shareholders

    Deal expected to close in the second half of 2025. Once it is closed Omnicom expected to get $750 million in cost savings over the following two years. Combined cashflow of more than $3 billion a year.

    Investment analyst call

    The investment analyst call was led by Omnicom’s John Wren and featured Phillippe Krakowsky. One of the main factors raised on the call by Wren was the reduction on debt to EBITDA of Omnicom from 2.5x to 2.1x. The combined organisation also had a more balanced maturity profile on debt.

    The deal impacted scale in two ways:

    • Efficiencies due to scale.
    • Increased capacity to borrow and fund future purchases.

    What was less clear from the call was the value to customers. Healthcare was cited as an area of opportunity as both businesses had a substantial healthcare marketing offering. But nothing on how to capitalise on the opportunity.

    What I didn’t hear was how the combined business was going to get to 750 million of savings, but that they were confident that they could hit that number in two years after the deal closed.

    I also didn’t hear a clear position on how the combined firm would deal with the drain of advertising revenue from marketing conglomerates and media companies to platforms. There was some lip service given to being able to better address generative AI related change as a larger group.

    Finally there was no analysis, or consideration about how Omnicom and Interpublic would surpass their competitors innovation. Instead the focus was purely on existing combined size.

    Shareholder value

    At the time of the announcement, the deal was said to offer a premium in terms of value to Interpublic shareholders.

    As for Omnicom shareholders, they claimed: The transaction will be accretive to adjusted earnings per share for both Omnicom and Interpublic shareholders.

    Slow gains – which might make taking that money out of their existing shares and instead putting it in a S&P 500 tracker ETF seem more attractive.

    Industry animal spirits (aka what people were saying in my feeds and op-eds)

    The reaction on social platforms was shrill and overwhelmingly negative. The reasons given included:

    • The inevitable job cuts.
    • The internal preoccupation that comes from two large organisations coming together.
    • The lack of clarity about unique benefit that the new company would provide.
    • The two-year inward focus on consolidation would allow more innovative competitors (depending who you listened to this would be Accenture, Brandtech, Dentsu, Publicis, Stagwell) gain further ground.

    Later on, the discussion moved on towards the reactionary nature of the discussion itself.

    From within Interpublic itself, I heard concern about the future from people in different parts of the business. This was down to a lack of internal communication rather than anything specific in nature.

    Left unchecked, it could be morale sapping and might encourage some of the best talent to leave for more stable environs.

    Update: January 17, 2025Campaign magazine podcast. The most interesting argument made in the podcast was that the media buying and creative arms of Interpublic are seen as having little-to-no-value and that deal from Omnicom’s perspective was all about Interpublic’s data platform.

    Any self-respecting investment banker worth their salt would be able to break the conglomerate down into constituent parts and sell it off (as what has happened with Interpublic agencies R/GA and Huge already).

    • In the PR and social / influence sector Golin and Weber Collective would make natural groupings to be spun off and still with enough scale to compete on the global stage.
    • From a creative agency perspective, it would be a similar situation with Mullen Lowe and McCann World Group.
    • IPG Health looks like it had already been pre-packaged for private equity when it was carved away from its advertising groups and nominally has a full suite of offerings to provide the pharmaceutical sector clients.
    • For bits of networks that you can’t sell. For instance if the purchaser doesn’t want to have an agency office in Malaysia (Malaysia is only in here hypothetically, in reality I have no idea why more global corporate headquarters aren’t located in the Cameron highlands); you can recoup some of your money by facilitating a management buyout. These are more common than you realise.

    Instead the podcast participants think that clients are just all about first and third party data platforms. I would argue that’s a simplistic view that ignores:

    • The relative complementary nature of the Interpublic and Omnicom networks in terms of product spread and geographical reach. In most markets, one or the other network has an appreciably stronger position. Where there is consolidation needed, this would most likely result in redundancies in the Asia Pacific and European regions.
    • Client brands need for continued brand building and the current chaos in the major platforms pivoting to the new presidential administration’s direction.
    • ‘Bad neighbourhoods’ for brand content will adversely affect the ability of brands to advertise or promote themselves effectively. It’s harder to build effective brand memory structures in what consumers are likely to perceive as a hateful, or hostile environment.
    • Finally there is the the little acknowledged fact that social platform advertising is disproportionally supported by D2C marketing and varying forms of hucksterism from Temu to get-rich schemes. This isn’t the kind of businesses that fill up the client ranks of large marketing conglomerates like Omnicom and Interpublic.

    What business thinking says

    Harvard Business Review claims that 70 to 90 percent of mergers and acquisitions fail. By comparison, anywhere between 25 and 80 percent of large IT projects fail. 70 to 85 percent of new consumer product launches fail. TL;DR running a business is tough.

    Secondly, Omnicom and Interpublic grew historically through acquisitions. Which would mean that they understand how to move a business forward and integrate their new acquisition.

    The business model that marketing services conglomerates historically worked on was a mix of an arbitrage play, driving integration and efficiencies.

    Arbitrage

    Omnicom and Interpublic both relied on a few ways to gain an arbitrage benefit:

    • Private companies are generally cheaper to buy than publicly listed firms. It’s a matter of economics, publicly listed firms list in a closer to perfect market. Secondly, buyout contracts to get the management to meet financial targets that facilitate either a faster financial payback or a cheaper price on the business.
    • Larger companies like Omnicom can borrow money at more favourable terms than a small to medium-sized business. Larger companies that have lower levels of leverage will be able to get money in a more favourable format than more highly leveraged business of the same size.

    Driving integration

    Historically these groups take a light touch on integration for agencies where the capabilities are common to more than one agency, WHERE the acquired agency is hitting the ambitious financial targets set by the holding company. Integration in terms of integrated new business pitches and common selling of new products or capabilities.

    This might be where the client is looking for an integrated solution. Or it might be where it makes sense to pool resources to deal with a new area like Amazon advertising and retail media or generative AI services.

    Once a newly acquired business has become ‘part of the furniture’ and the founders have stepped away, you are more likely to see it become more deeply knitted into the holding group business fabric. This is likely to include common systems and processes: time-tracking software, HR and talent management software, accounting software, cloud services and productivity software.

    Efficiencies

    Sources of efficiencies overlap integration through standardisation and being able to buy in bulk. A second source of efficiency is consolidation of common business functions:

    • Accounting / finance
    • Business development
    • Freelance staff pool
    • Human resources and recruitment
    • IT
    • Knowledge management
    • Legal services

    Open questions

    Both Omnicom and Interpublic have experience of integrating and spinning off parts of their businesses. What’s different about the Interpublic acquisition is that the scale involved is different from anything else that’s been undertaken in the sector.

    • How will this be done successfully?
    • What (additional) value is in the resulting business for clients?

    ADWEEK polled marketers to better understand their attitude to the merger. On balance they weren’t supportive of the deal. Twice as many respondents were negative about the deal compared to those who felt positively about it. The good news was that almost 60 percent either hadn’t made their mind up or were on balance neutral. At this point I need to caveat the results with the note that there wasn’t a breakdown on the types of respondents in terms of their role and seniority.

    Omnicom IPG

    But it implied that Omnicom had a serious communication job to be done convincing wider stakeholders on the merits of the deal.

    The problem might be greater than telling a better story. By some estimates 60% of Interpublic and Omnicom scopes of work are allegedly already understaffed – if true, likely putting customer satisfaction at risk. And that’s before the reduction in headcount to match the need for cost savings.

    More information

    Omnicom to Acquire Interpublic Group to Create Premier Marketing and Sales Company – Omnicom Group Inc. Newsroom

    Omnicom SEC filings – Omnicom Group Inc. Investor Relations

    IPG Mediabrands To Lay Off 103 Staffers | AdWeek – this is fast, if related to the Omnicom acquisition announcement

    Things to Consider During Blackout and Quiet Periods | Gilmartin Group

    CAGR S&P500 calculator

    Don’t Make This Common M&A Mistake | Harvard Business Review

    More Marketers Disapprove of Omnicom Acquiring IPG Than Approve | AdWeek

    3 Main Reasons Why Big Technology Projects Fail – & Why Many Companies Should Just Never Do Them | Forbes

    The Merger Mystery: Why Spend Ever More on Mergers When so Many Fail? by Geoff Meeks and J. Gay Meeks

    Most new products fail: Implicit sensory testing can help beat the odds | Food Navigator Europe

  • AI two-step

    The phrase AI two-step is something I first heard from my friend Antony Mayfield. He used it to talk about how companies were adopting the latest developments in AI for business processes. And then reduce headcount to reflect the newly AI derived tasks instead.

    The AI two-step isn’t necessarily a new concept, companies like Pegasystems were using rules-based systems to take away the drudgery of back office work in banking and fund management for decades.

    Further back, companies like Experian, through their access to CCS’ CardPac software provided a service for credit card issuers in the UK using rules-based credit scoring and applications approval. This ran on time-shared mainframe computing resources, which also provided Experian with a good source of ongoing credit worthiness data. All of which reduced the back office work and employees needed by the credit card company. MBNA used to make a virtue out of having every decision reviewed by real live credit analyst, who could overwrite a scoring decision if they saw a compelling reason to do so. (CCS became part of First Data and eventually part of Fiserv).

    HAL 9000

    As these services were being rolled out, there was a corresponding cut in jobs.

    Examples

    Here are just a few examples of businesses adopting AI, some of which are prime examples of the AI two-step.

    IBM

    While IBM may no longer trumpeting its Watson AI service as loudly as it used to, AI methods are dispensing with the need to replace staff who leave the technology company.

    Pfizer’s Charlie

    One might think in the UK that Pfizer should have thought a bit more carefully about the name Charlie, but the aspiration behind the platform is interesting. Charlie was noted to be helping with content creation, fact checking and legal reviews. Research by Bain & Company have found that it isn’t just Pfizer in the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector that are taking this approach. Some 40 percent of executives who were surveyed said that uses of generative AI were factored into their 2024 budgets.

    Bain indicated uses across a wide range of business functions within pharma:

    • IT programming code review
    • Competitive intelligence
    • Research and biomedical literature review
    • Marketing copy
    • Augmenting the selling process as a sales co-pilot and contact centre automation

    Publicis

    French listed marketing combine Publicis made a high profile adoption of machine learning and AI-based services back in 2017 under the moniker Marcel. Back then Marcel was being used for workflow type tasks and organisation of data. This year Publicis rebranded its approach to the less playful CoreAI, so far it has cut the use of freelance staff – which are usually essential for project delivery in ad agencies, rather than the usual AI two-step of lay-offs.

    UPS

    UPS adoption of AI techniques in everything from workflow to customer service allowed the logistics company to make the largest lay-offs in its 116-year history.

    Clear analogues to the AI two-step?

    Various commentators compare the AI two-step happening to the dot com boom of the mid-1990s to the early 2000s. The comparison with the dot com boom is easy at first. You have businesses that have phenomenal share price growth, widespread interest and experimentation. Business sectors from advertising to Hollywood are concerned about massive disruption.

    The examples I would think about would be factory automation and business process re-engineering. In factor automation, over decades companies used machines to negate the need for unskilled and semi-skilled workers. A friend of mine worked in Huddersfield in a textile mill. He was one of just a couple of people who worked a shift. None of them were weavers, they were engineers and an IT admin who maintained the lines of machines turning out high-end suiting fabric that was mostly sold to Japanese clothing manufacturers. This came very close to being a ‘lights out production line‘ where the product is handmade by robots as they used to say in the old Fiat car advertisements.

    Weavers and machine operators were replaced by a lot fewer, but more expensive roles.

    Business process re-engineering was driven by enterprises implementing enterprise software to drive efficiencies and automate workflows. This was a lucrative time for consultancies who were brought in to shape a company’s workforce and processes to fit a software company’s pre-defined template for that industry. This was usually based on average industry standards. Software giant SAP have been building and refining these templates for the best part of 50 years, each industry template draws on individual units that might cover a business function like HR, finance or asset management.

    A bit of software customisation was needed to fit a given business, and it might have to interface with third party products to handle market complexities such as different tax regimes.

    The consultancy teams also laid-off employees that didn’t fit the framework. That’s what business process re-engineering actually meant.

    Automation was responsible for putting up to 47% of American jobs at risk. However other research indicates that new forms of skilled or professional jobs are being created. One of the big problems with this data is that they are speculative models. More positive takes from businesses fuelling automation like McKinsey and Company versus more critical predictions from government think tanks and academics.

    Factory automation and business process engineering are both similar to the use of AI in business, in that they are primarily helping mature businesses maintain their position and drive efficiency. The dot com boom on the other hand was much more disruptive and spawning more upstart businesses – some of which were very successful and leaving mature businesses struggling to cope. From financial services to media – pre-internet businesses are still struggling to cope with the innovation and disruption that begat the dot com boom.

    Optimists versus pessimists

    The optimists highlight a number of nuances that they think mediates the impact of automation and machine learning over time.

    Tasks over jobs.

    It’s tasks rather than whole jobs are being lost. Yet if you look at the data that Scott Galloway shared in his newsletter and the speedy ‘these job losses aren’t down to AI denials’ this optimistic assumption is pure fiction. The jobs being lost are the second part of the AI two-step.

    Creative destruction.

    Jobs are being created too and it’s often about ‘skill shifts’ rather than ‘job shifts’. While there are redundancies being made, there is a requirement (at the moment) for people skilled in writing ‘prompts’ to get the most out of the AI models created.

    Overconfidence.

    Overconfidence in technology and what it can do. An extension of this is a belief in the perfectibility of technology. A classic example of this is Air Canada’s recently aborted use of an AI-powered customer service chatbot. The airline quietly pulled its chatbot offline after being found legally liable for bad advice given by the customer service bot to a customer.

    Moffatt booked airfares and retrospectively submitted an application for a refund to the reduced bereavement fare after travelling. Air Canada denied the request. Moffatt challenged that decision, saying he was owed the refund because he had relied on the information provided to him by the chatbot on Air Canada’s website. Air Canada admitted that the information provided by the chatbot was “misleading”, but it contested Moffatt’s right to a refund, highlighting that he had been provided with the correct information via the link the chatbot shared in its message.

    The Civil Resolution Tribunal considered whether Air Canda was liable for negligent misrepresentation, which arises under Canadian law when a seller does not exercise reasonable care to ensure its representations are accurate and not misleading. Moffatt was required to show that Air Canada owed him a duty of care, that its representation was untrue, inaccurate or misleading, that Air Canada made the representation negligently, that he reasonably relied on it, and that that reliance resulted in damages. The court held that Moffatt met those requirements.

    The Civil Resolution Tribunal noted that Air Canada had argued that it could not be held liable for information provided by one of its agents, servants or representatives, including a chatbot, but had not explained the basis for that suggestion. The Civil Resolution Tribunal rejected as a “remarkable submission” Air Canada’s suggestion that the chatbot was a separate legal entity that was responsible for its own actions.

    Air Canada chatbot case highlights AI liability risks by Meghan Higgins, Pinsent Masons

    Demographic change.

    Demographics – the idea that aging countries from the west to China, Japan and Korea have skills deficits due to population decline. Automation is one of the coping mechanisms alongside globalisation and migration that have been suggested solutions. The Chinese are also looking at building factories in countries like Ethiopia, who have a young and growing population. Automation makes sense where migration would adversely affect social cohesion and the cost of globalisation would be more expensive than automation technologies. Workers in the global south are dependent on being cheaper than machines, rather like the American legend of John Henry versus the steam engine.

    Companies like Automata have been looking to help businesses automate repetitive low skilled work, such as sandwich making in food service factories or low volume manufacturing tasks.

    John Henry Statue

    The state of automation in different roles is running along at different rates of progress. While John Deere have managed to make the most of arable farmland through the use of telematics and GPS guidance of tractors, automating farming for tasks like harvesting is proving more difficult. This is exasperated in the UK at least by the challenge of getting sustained venture capital for hardware. Technology automation in other sectors such as construction and healthcare continues to move at a slow pace.

    In an area like consumer electronics we have seen benefits and declines in automation. Benefits in the way a company like Apple can manage a sophisticated global supply chain workflow via automated software. Apple has also pioneered the use of robotics in dismantling its more modern smartphones when they are brought in to be recycled.

    The declining area has been one of design choice. Prior to the smartphone and broadband internet, companies like Panasonic designed circuit boards that were less dense with components. The reason for this was to facilitate automated board manufacture through the use of ‘pick and place’.

    Nokia used similar techniques for its cellphones and smartphones until the business was disrupted. Apple iPhones needed much more manual assembly because of the tightly packed components in their phones. Young women were valued for their small hands and manual dexterity leading to concerns about worker conditions.

    More work to be done.

    Creation of new jobs seems to be a matter of faith. IT in businesses drove an increased amount of management, the move online drove a need for webmasters, web designers and online marketers. There is an assumption that over time AI will have a similar effect, beyond people who can write prompts.

    Limiting factors

    Technology

    While GPT based models have surprised both in terms of what they can do and fail to do, there is a belief amongst experts that:

    Data sets will only get you so far. There is no clear path to a new technique, or what older techniques would need to be combined with GPT-based systems. Of the data sets out there, a significant minority could be filled with ‘poison’ data like nightshade.

    That there isn’t enough data to train models in a lot of cases and synthetic data is often used instead. Others believe that this will corrupt and stunt future AI models rather than help them.

    Resources

    AI systems like crypto mining consume a lot of energy and require a lot of water for cooling which is already straining data centres and infrastructure. All of which will impact corporates ESG profile and larger investor relations health. You could have an amazing AI model, but if you have as bad an ESG rating as Exxon you willl struggle to raise funds.

    More information

    Corporate Ozempic | No mercy / no malice

    No, Robots Aren’t Destroying Half of All Jobs | London School of Economics (LSE)

    Antony Mayfield – Antonym newsletter

    AI feedback loop will spell death for future generative models | TechSpot 

    Mixtral 8x7B: Quality, Performance & Price Analysis | Artificial Analysis 

    AI-poisoning tool Nightshade now available for artists to use | VentureBeat 

    AI sucks at telling jokes — but it’s great at analyzing them | The Next Web 

    At WEF in Davos, Sam Altman and Will.i.am differ on AI | Quartz 

  • Innovation signalling

    What is innovation signalling?

    Innovation signalling has some similarities with its counterpart virtue signalling in terms of authenticity in terms of behaviour and the projected image. An organisation looks to demonstrate its ‘high degree’ of innovation with actions and projects with the external image firmly in mind. There may be an internal learning, or business benefit to this as well, but the image projected is the main objective.

    How to Complete Label’s Fashion Challenge in Animal Crossing: New Horizons

    As I wrote this post a collaboration between Moncler and Adidas dropped putting innovation signalling at its core involving both involving NFTs and AI generated designs and models.

    Open Sea has an NFT where the owner gets a Rolex watch on submission of the NFT. This has since been extended into the US market by CRM Jewellers in Miami.

    AI has its place for instance, simulating and optimising product design based on physical properties. NASA has used AI for just this purpose in conjunction with additive manufacturing techniques for small production runs of parts needed for the space programme.

    It’s not just the luxury sector

    This might read like I have been picking excessively on the luxury sector. I use them as exemplars mainly because their examples are so high profile. But there are examples in other sectors. For instance, Walmart partnering with IBM to use block chain to track individual lettuce heads from farm to customer trolley.

    There were similar partnerships that IBM hatched with Unilever, Nestlé and Dole Foods as well, but the fruits of these projects were not publicised to the same degree.

    You can find similar posts here and this metaverse discussion paper that helps to cut through the blockchain and metaverse hype.

    More information

    Dior takes its Chinaverse presence to new heights with second virtual showcase | Digital | Campaign Asia

    How the metaverse downturn is benefitting digital designers | Vogue Business

    Kim Jones designs skins and vintage car for Dior’s gaming debut | Vogue Business

    Inside The Metaverse Strategies Of L’Oréal And LVMH | The Drum

    Meta’s new digital fashion marketplace will sell Prada, Balenciaga and Thom Browne | Vogue Business

    When it comes to Roblox, Gucci is not playing around | Vogue Business

    Gucci Town Lands on Roblox With Activities and Shopping Experiences – Robb Report and Gucci Cosmos Land brings physical heritage to the metaverse | Vogue Business – on The Sandbox

    VR Experience for Santos de Cartier Launch – Virtual Reality Marketing

    Cartier Plugs into VR to Sell Historical Watch Story to China | Jing Daily

    LVMH’s Arnault is wary of the metaverse “bubble”. Should luxury be? | Vogue Business

    Marni introduces digital fashion with new virtual world | Vogue Business

    Tiffany’s Alexandre Arnault joins the NFT Cryptopunks community | Vogue Business

    Roblox earnings: Why enticing brands is key to the future of the metaverse platform – Digiday

    What fashion week looks like in the metaverse | Vogue Business

    Luxury brands are ditching KOLs for virtual influencers in China: how Alexander McQueen, Dior and Prada are turning to digital avatars and AI idols to woo millennials | South China Morning Post

    An Outfit to Match Your Chain – Google Drive – Highsnobriety has interviews where these intersect with luxury and fashion. It will be probably handy for a couple of client presentations

    NASA Turns to AI to Design Mission Hardware | NASA.gov

    From Farm to Blockchain: Walmart Tracks Its Lettuce – The New York Times

    Walmart and 9 Food Giants Team Up on IBM Blockchain Plans | Fortune.com

  • Tampopo

    I first got to see Tampopo at the 051 Cinema in Liverpool. It was a comedy, it had new wave vibes and I knew I could watch it several more times without getting bored. When I went to college a lecturer screened clips of it to emphasise the importance of observation as a market research tool – a lesson that has stuck with me to this day. Decades later I get Tampopo on Blu-Ray via Criterion Collection re-issue.

    Tampopo

    The print is way richer and better than what I saw a few times in Liverpool and it still holds my interest.

    Ramen western?

    Before we get into the film I want dispel the idea of the ramen western. Every magazine review you see of Tampopo will use the term ‘ramen western’ which was apparently coined by publicists during its international release. It’s a lazy phrase in the case of Tampopo for a number of reasons.

    Yes, one of the protagonists has some clothing that might evoke the image of a cowboy, but that’s like writing the entire film from a few curated still images. The clothing is more about evoking the rugged individuality of a truck driver, in a largely conformist society. Their neckerchief is more about lorry cabs having no air conditioning at the time.

    The best spaghetti westerns like A Fist Full of Dollars actually were adaptions of Japanese films. In the case of A Fist Full of Dollars, it’s the retelling in western setting of the Akira Kurosawa film Yojimbo. So the Ramen Western reference is basically saying ‘it’s a Japanese interpretation set around a neighbourhood restaurant of an Italian plagarisation of a Japanese chambara film classic’.

    The reality is that Tampopo is more complex than the simplistic ramen western label would have you believe.

    Juzo Itami

    Director Juzo Itami was an auteur: actor, script writer and director. Tampopo was his second feature film and he would eventually direct eight more. Itami’s later films courted controversy with him being attacked by Yakuza members. His eventual suicide is widely believed to have been staged by members of the Goto-gumi to prevent a film that discussed the gang’s links with the Soka Gakkai buddhist movement.

    Back to Tampopo

    Tampopo revolves around food as art and food is also the MacGuffin for the film. In the main story, a widow is struggling to manage her ramen shop following the death of her husband the cook and shop owner.

    A jobbing truck driver and drivers mate stop to eat and get sucked into a quest. The widow who is named Tampopo (Dandelion), the truck driver and driver’s mate to make great ramen and rejuvenate the fortunes of the shop.

    So if Tampopo isn’t a ramen western, what is it?

    The simple answer would be an action comedy revolving around a ramen shop and the art of cooking. But there is so much more in the film.

    There is a second story about ‘the man in white’ which has heavy overtones of French new wave cinema and features a basket of European food fit for a decadent picnic. The fourth wall is broken and one of the characters speaks directly to the audience, adding an additional layer of complexity. We are both audience and (minor) character. Over new wave vignettes in the film include:

    • Salarymen having a meal at a French restaurant 
    • A women’s etiquette class on how to eat spaghetti silently in the European manner
    • Supermarket staff stopping an older woman with a compulsion to squeeze food
    • A con man uses an elaborate meal to lure a mark into an scam
    • A woman breast feeds her infant

    Torakku Yarō

    There are references due to the plot structure to the idea of the ronin – the unattached samurai helping out common people in the plot structure. But just as important the film references Japanese culture around that time. There is a clear parallel between Tampopo and a series of trucking related comedy films that were made from 1974 – 1979. Torakku Yarō (トラック野郎) roughly translates as Truck Guys or Truck Rascals. It is a series of ten films made over a four year period to cater for the popularity of the genre.

    The plots were standardised.

    1. Truck driver falls in love with woman he meets on the road.
    2. Truck driver through his actions actually helps her fall in love with another man.
    3. Truck driver ends up going on a quest to help reunite the star-crossed lovers under some sort of time restriction.

    In this case cooking ramen is substituted for the ‘other man’. The connections don’t stop at the plot structure, one of the main characters Pisken is played by Japanese Italian actor Rikiya Yasuoka – who appeared in the first instalment of the Torakku Yarō series.

    Torakku Yarō itself was based on an earlier series of comedies called Otoko wa Tsurai yo (男はつらいよ): translated as It’s tough being a man. 48 films were made in this series from 1969 to 1995 based around the same formula.

    1. Tora-san falls in love with a woman
    2. Tora-san argues with his extended family
    3. Tora-san’s love of the woman is not reciprocated and he leaves heart-broken

    While the humour may not fully come out from Tompopo, it’s a visual tour-de-force with great acting and a distinctive vision behind the film. I look forward to rewatching it again in the future.

    More film reviews here.