Search results for: “disco”

  • The British discount + more things

    The British discount

    A number of things have happened that made me think about the idea of the British discount. A fund manager came out and said that UK equities were cheap compared to their counterparts listed on other stock markets and would likely remain so for a long time.

    Sale
    Genuine sale bargains?

    There are a number of reasons why these companies may trade at a British discount:

    • The London Stock Exchanges doesn’t have a reputation for high growth businesses in the same way that the New York Stock Exchange or NASDAQ does. Instead it has a preponderance of mining companies and similar firms
    • UK pension funds are discouraged from purchasing stocks
    • The UK doesn’t foster the kind of businesses that growth investors would want to invest in
    • British banks don’t particularly want to invest in British businesses beyond property portfolios
    • Management demonstrate short-termism in their investment approach, as does the banking system
    • There isn’t a culture of retail share ownership
    • The UK economy has numerous structural challenges, some of them self inflicted

    The British discount goes beyond the stock market, but instead the very nature of the UK itself.

    Indebted government

    Government debt is ballooning and will continue to do so, yet productivity is stubbornly low meaning the bonds will be ever harder to pay off. Finally as the Liz Truss debacle showed even leadership shows the British discount.

    The state Britain has been in

    The ideas and concepts the British discount aren’t even new – most of them came from ideas in Will Hutton’s The State We’re In originally published in 1995.

    The fund manager can be confident in the British discount to be long-lasting as he knows that neither the Labour Party or their Conservative Party counterparts had managed to address existing structural economic issues. Instead they managed to create new ones.

    The British discount related content

    The State We’re In by Will Hutton

    China

    The Trajectory of China’s Industrial Policies – IGCC – Barry Naughton, Siwen Xiao, and Yaosheng Xu argue that most of the changes in Chinese industrial policy since the mid-2000s can be thought of as being part of a trajectory that seeks to build a policy/planning mechanism, and that shifts the ultimate objective of technology and industry policies from economics to security.

    Consumer behaviour

    Why Singaporean democracy is like a social media graph – Marginal REVOLUTION

    Why the Toronto Zoo wants you to stop showing gorillas your phone | The Star 

    Aini on ‘stans’

    Economics

    Exclusive: China invites global investors for rare meeting as economy sputters | Reuters – keep Foreign investment coming which seems to be a desperate measure

    FMCG

    The WHO’s aspartame advice changes nothing for Coke, Pepsi | Quartz 

    Saudi Arabia’s Barn’s Coffee plans 25 outlets in MalaysiaMalaysia’s Premier Fine Foods plans to establish 25 outlets in Kuala Lumpur as its hub and expand operations to other Southeast Asian countries, including Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam, in its aim to have 300 outlets in the next 10 years – interesting franchise coming out of Saudi Arabia

    Germany

    Germany’s first China strategy warns on asymmetric dependencies | Quartz – German large business is scuppering the German government at every turn – Germany warns companies to reduce dependence on China | Financial Times

    Health

    Intergenerational transmission of mental health problems – Marginal REVOLUTION – interesting how Norway were able to get positive results by early intervention in families where the parents had mental health disorders

    Hong Kong

    Are cities in Asia becoming better places to live? – its fascinating to see that Singapore isn’t in the top five and Hong Kong has fallen completely out of most liveable based on this data

    How to

    Delia Online | Official site with recipes, cookery school and how to videos

    How to Use AI to Do Stuff: An Opinionated Guide 

    Indonesia

    Indonesians going into debt for Blackpink, Coldplay tickets shows dark side of fintech revolution | South China Morning Post 

    Innovation

    AI-powered brain surgery becomes a reality in Hong Kong after launch from state-run research centre | South China Morning Post 

    Japan

    Japan failed at social media – Matt Alt’s Pure Invention – is it failure to innovate or a failure to regulate US products I suspect the latter

    Street Style in Tokyo: “Harajuku Is Like a Fashion Gallery With a Free Entrance” | Vogue“In present-day Harajuku, there are probably more foreigners walking around than there are Japanese people. They used to be watchers of Harajuku fashion, but now they are players; it’s a new movement in the neighborhood. In this story, there are many Chinese and Korean individuals who seem to enjoy and carry forward the Harajuku fashion of the 1990s and 2000s, rather than simply copying it

    Luxury

    Burberry revenue growth weighed down by falling Americas sales | Financial Times

    Marketing

    Full article: ChatGPT, AI Advertising, and Advertising Research and Education – leading scholars and industry thinkers in our field and neighboring disciplines are actively examining and engaging in debates on AI technologies and their applications to advertising practices and effects. However, we have not imagined such powerful AI technologies as ChatGPT emerging and spreading in the general public so quickly. According to industry estimates, ChatGPT reached 100 million monthly users in the first two months after launch, which makes it the fastest-growing technology application in history, but web traffic has since peaked. ChatGPT and other generative AI technologies in this new phase of AI advancement are expected to completely transform the advertising business and research. More research is urgently needed to gain an understanding of the short- and long-term impacts of this new generation of transformative AI technologies on advertising across the micro, meso, and macro levels

    Influence 100: In-House PR Budgets Slashed | Provoke MediaThis year, our Influence 100 cohort control a combined spend of $3.7 billion, a drop of more than $1bn on last year’s figure of $4.8 billion and far below 2020’s dip to $4.2 billion, after being at $4.8 billion in 2019. The drop is largely down to a significant dip in the number of our Influence 100 managing top-end budgets. Last year the number who managed budgets of more than $100m was 25% (compared to 27% in 2021), while this year it is down to 17%. The number of CMOs and CCOs managing between $75 and $100m also dropped, from 12.5% last year to 10% (although this is on a par with 11% in 2021), and the next budget bracket, $50-$75m, also saw a drop from 17.5% to 13%, one percentage point lower than 2021. The proportion of communications leaders managing budgets of between $25m and $50m remained the same as last year, at 10%, and the only budget bracket that saw an increase was at the lower end, $10m-$25m, which shot up from 12.5% to 30% – unsurprising given the dip in advertising spend

    Materials

    Machine learning based design optimisation was used to create additive manufactured brackets for NASA instruments. They feel organic in nature, presumably because they the result of millions of virtual trials, rather like generations of biological evolution.

    Media

    TV producers wanted AI rights of extras forever, says union • The Register – makes sense when you think why the Screen Actors Guild and Writers Guild are on strike

    Opinion | Fictional thriller by David Ignatius: The Tao of Deception – Washington Post – interesting return to serialised fiction

    Security

    UK response to Chinese spying ‘completely inadequate’, report finds | Financial Times

    Vatican’s influence falters in Ukraine and across the region – Coda Story 

    David Ignatius on how the MSS routed the CIA’s network in China and the state of China at the present time.

    Software

    Artificial Intelligence – Platform wars | Radio Free Mobile

    How do AI systems like ChatGPT work? There’s a lot scientists don’t know. – Vox – timely reminder of the way things have been for a decade or so since Google engineers didn’t get ‘RankBrain’ and the decisions it was making

    Technology

    With reported improvements in 3/4nm yield rates, Samsung sees increased possibility of customers returning – TSMC has been 10 percent growth in the last quarter, which must be a rich target for Samsung now they have their process right

  • Conglomerate discount

    Conglomerate discount wasn’t a concept that I was that familiar with. Conglomerates had gone out of style in the west during the 1960s to the 1990s.

    Western conglomerates

    Classic conglomerate examples would be

    • GEC
    • ITT
    • Litton Industries
    • Lonhro
    • Teledyne
    • Textron

    Spivs and financiers bought in and broke them up into their constituent parts. Or a new CEO would do it themselves to focus on core competencies and release value for shareholders.

    Conglomerate discount

    A conglomerate discount is when the stock market values a diversified group of businesses and assets at less than the sum of its parts. This is because investors are worried about the management not being able to focus on improving the operational performance and figuring out a coherent strategic direction.

    https://flic.kr/p/efUKvm
    Michael Milken who was famous for financing leveraged buyout deals

    Taking advantage of a conglomerate discount

    So our spiv financier could borrow money, buy the company at a discount. Sell off parts to pay off the loan and be left with more money than they initially had to borrow. Many of the constituent companies couldn’t be sold quickly as a going concern. Instead they were shut, machines sold for scrap and their factory land sold for redevelopment.

    Asian conglomerates

    Asian business people, especially those running Hong Kong and Chinese companies don’t view conglomerates in quite the same way.

    https://flic.kr/p/dydqRH
    Li Ka shing

    The Li family manage two publicly listed companies in Hong Kong. They came out of the merger of Cheung Kong Holdings and Hutchison Whampoa.

    Cheung Kong

    Cheung Kong Industries was formed in the 1950s as a plastic flower manufacturer during the post-war industrialisation of Hong Kong. It evolved into a property investment company after the 1967 riots and Cheung Kong Holdings was established in 1971. Over the next decades it became one of Hong Kong’s largest developers and land owners.

    In 2015, the group went under a reorganisation, the groups property assets were spun off into what is now CK Asset Holdings.

    Hutchison Whampoa

    Hutchison Whampoa was bought in 1979. HSBC had a strategic holding in the company and sold that on to Cheung Kong. They also provided Cheung Kong with the loan to make the purchase. In 2015, Cheung Kong bought the parts of Hutchison Whampoa that it didn’t already own. It eventually became CK Hutchison Holdings, incorporating all the non-property aspects of the Cheung Kong – Hutchison Whampoa combine.

    In addition, the Li family have some of the shares in businesses that they own held in the Li Ka shing Foundation (LKSF).

    CK Hutchison and CK Asset Holdings

    CK Hutchison Holdings and CK Asset Holdings both trade at a conglomerate discount. However, the Li family has a controlling share in them. This probably explains why they haven’t come under attack by an activist shareholder from within China or abroad.

    In his article for Apple Daily Yeung Wai-hong explains how the Li family uses the concept of conglomerate discount to their advantage.

    The CK Hutchison Holdings and CK Asset Holdings creation allowed shareholders to see clearly delineated businesses. One focused on property, the other one on non-property assets in 2015.

    CK Asset Holdings started to blur the lines buying into businesses that more sensibly fit into CK Hutchison Holdings – aircraft leasing, pubs and utilities. Creating conditions for a conglomerate discount that is disadvantageous to non-family shareholders. The bigger business has a larger turnover. Even if the profit margin is lower, management still have an excuse to raise their salary and benefits.

    CK Asset Holdings has a large amount of cash on hand indicating a lack of investment opportunities. Recently CK Asset Holdings bought shares in utilities from LKSF in exchange for shares in CK Asset Holdings.

    I’ll let Yeung Wai-hong explain the next bit

    …CK Asset promised to buy back shares equivalent to the amount of HK$17 billion and cancel them. Whether the equity will be diluted is up to the minority shareholders. If they do not accept buyback, their equity will be diluted; if they do, then it won’t. The buyback price is about 10% more than the average share price of CK Asset, so the minority shareholders do have a chance to cash in at a “high price.” However, the buyback price of HK$51 per share is only 53% of the net asset value after deducting the debt. So accepting the buyback is like allowing Li’s family to grab a bargain at half price.

    Conglomerate discount by Yeung Wai-hong, Apple Daily Hong Kong (March 29, 2021)

    If that happened outside Hong Kong there would be shareholder class action suits. The theory goes that these trades slowly put the squeeze on minority shareholders at a discount. Transferring value to the Li family. Eventually allowing for a gradual privatisation of the business at the expense of retail shareholders.

    Once this has been done the value of the assets at their full price can be realised. More finance related content here.

    More information

    ‘Conglomerate discount’ | Yeung Wai-hong | Apple Daily 

    Britannica, T. Editors of Encyclopaedia. “Conglomerate.” Encyclopedia Britannica, September 26, 2007.

  • Rediscovering Quora + more

    Probably the biggest thing that happened was me rediscovering Quora the question-and-answer network. I replied to a question ‘What are the major reasons behind Yahoo’s drastic downfall?‘ and then republished it as a blog post with a few more bits and bobs. Traffic blew up on the post when Dave Farber published a link to it in his Interesting People email list. I read Yahoo’s $8 Billion Black Hole – Bloomberg Businessweek on Thursday and it felt like part two of my piece on Yahoo! which looks to now and forward whereas I looked at macro factors and heritage. Rediscovering Quora also reminded me of the lost opportunity in Yahoo! Answers.

    Great video mash-ups plugged the gap post the Game of Thrones series launch

    I got to see Keith Weed present an aggregate view of social as it pertains to Unilever’s brands and whilst on stage he revealed that they had an inter-agency war room set up to steer the media spend around Knorr’s #LoveAtFirstTaste campaign.

    Short of Tinder integration I don’t really know what else they could have done. I do wish that it wouldn’t keep recommending chicken dishes to me though. Check out the campaign site here and the ad below.

    Really nice creative driven by MullenLowe.

    Pepsi went big with a digital OOH augmented reality campaign in Singapore. Most AR projects tend to be smaller rather than going for giant screens. Pepsi has an under-appreciated heritage in pioneering media devices. It did QRcodes on cans in western markets, so far ahead of consumer adoption that they had to provide instructions on the cans explaining what a QRcode was. This was on Pepsi Max which is right in that young adult / youth marketing space.

    Hasbro who own the Monopoly board game, posted this surreal live stream on their Facebook page. It is strangely compelling like some bizarre form of performance art.

  • 2026 media diary

    The 2026 media diary post is an update and a reflection on past posts that I have written in the same vein. The first one was inspired by a request that Stephen Waddington put out in 2015.

    Untitled

    I wrote the next iteration during CoVID. I was working from home in a role where it was getting hard for me to continue to add value. I had done much of the building capability I had been brought in to do and the business was in stasis following a purchase by a larger firm. I finished up at the business and moved to do strategy for the global launch of Wegovy.

    My 2026 media diary evolved.

    Messaging mayhem

    I still rely on various messaging platforms. At the moment its:

    • Google Meet
    • KakaoTalk
    • Slack
    • Microsoft Teams
    • WeChat
    • WhatsApp

    Thankfully I only use Zoom for the occasional webinar call now. I switched companies during lockdown and moving from working on Zoom, to working on Teams was a huge improvement in cognitive load.

    Zoom has migrated for lots of organisations from a video chat platform to a video broadcast platform.

    Skype was finally killed off by Microsoft, though the writing was on the wall long ago, due to poor product management. Any recommendations for a better VoIP client to deal with calling US businesses gratefully received. Skype had its niche and it is missed for it.

    The most notable update to my 2026 media diary is what’s missing. I no longer use Netflix. Instead, I save the subscription fee and buy DVDs and Blu-rays of films that I actually want to watch.

    Apple TV’s smaller collection of high quality series has more appeal as does some of Amazon Prime Video’s tentpole productions.

    The media remains the same

    I have been a subscriber of the US edition of Wired magazine. Back then it worked because I had a lot of technology clients, for a long time I had no technology clients and then I did two engagements: Google Cloud and Arm Semiconductor.

    The Financial Times is the best in a rather poor landscape of newspapers. Yet it sill proves surprisingly handy.

    I still love Monocle and Japanese style magazine HailMary.

    RTÉ is still a connection to home. In my 2026 media diary I rely even more heavily on podcasts rather than the BBC. My podcast tastes tend to run professional, current affairs analysis or financial news including:

    • Asia Geopolitics by The Diplomat
    • Asia Stream by Nikkei Asia
    • Independent Thinking by Chatham House
    • KBS World Radio News
    • English News – NHK World Radio Japan

    A brace of podcasts by Bloomberg, CNBC, CSIS, the FT, Monocle and Reuters.

    Social disengagement

    While I will occasionally log on to Twitter (I resolutely refuse to call it X) to browse the lists that I have curated on the platform for certain subjects such as China analysis, my use of micro-blogs in general has decreased massively. My posts on Instagram are occasional too.

    I still use LinkedIn for work and have a couple of dark social communities across Slack and WhatsApp that I check in on daily. I am now a member of a WhatsApp group for the people living in my block of houses.

    Brands that cut through

    It has been fascinating to watch ASOS’ pivot to attempt brand building. While the cost cutting has taken the headlines, and the gross merchandise value continued to decline, consumers are at least taking a look at the platform again. Secondly, they have managed to reduce their reliance on discounts.

    I wish that they would double down on their brand building efforts through, creative like this needs time to burn in.

    I have a strangely deja vu relationship with brands at the moment, direct to consumer brands like Suri or Tallow + Ash advertising remind me a lot of the JML screens in Wilko and Woolworths, slavishly copying the show-and-sell concept. Other brands like Gymshark feel very similar to QVC and IdeaStore. Brands have managed to partner with creators to extend shopping TV onto YouTube. They have built mental availability in the must-avoid category inside my head.

    Quality still counts. My wardrobe changed a bit since my last media diary. If you told my 2020 or 2015 media diary self that I would have had Nike ACG and Patagonia in my wardrobe I would have been surprised. My 2026 wardrobe now has Patagonia high loft fleeces and Nike ACG Goretex shells, the reason was quite simple. Nike and Patagonia were just building them better. I had a zip, not the zipper, but the zip come off my North Face jacket in my hand. Any North Face item I now own is well over ten years old. I still like Carhartt but wear more Gramicci climbing pants for comfort.

    Finally, I have been disappointed by Sony’s retreat from consumer electronics, it felt like a personal betrayal. Sony’s self-described purpose is ‘fill the world with emotion, through the power of creativity and technology’ yet it dropped consumer electronics and hi-fi components for Sony old peoples homes and life insurance.

    Previous editions of my media diary

    2020 media diary – the CoVID pivot back to desktop.

    2015 media diary – at the time I was on the cusp of living a post-PC life. My Mac was only really used for content creation.

  • Consumer grievance: a marketers atlas

    Writing about consumer grievance came from a couple of things. I was watching a lecture by professor Robert Reich at Stanford and it reminded me of Edelman‘s 2025 Trust Barometer report ‘Trust and the Crisis of Grievance‘.

    Edelman’s annual report is a barometer, a global snapshot of who and what consumers trust. As long as I can remember Edelman’s report into trust of institutions has been in decline, but the 2025 report highlighting consumer grievance marked a perceived acceleration.

    TL;DR

    • Why it matters: Most brands treat consumer complaints as a customer service headache to be managed by a chatbot. That is a massive commercial misstep. Grievance is not an admin burden; it is a raw, unvarnished map of what your audience actually cares about.
    • What is changing: We are seeing the rise of a distinct global grievance culture. When trust in traditional institutions wobbles, consumers direct their frustration at the brands they buy from. If you look closely at these grievances, you see the exact gaps where your business is failing to deliver on its promise.
    • The big picture: Two distinct trust economies now exist. There is the formal, corporate version presented in annual reports, and the real-world version lived by your customers. When the gap between the two grows too wide, the goodwill sitting on your balance sheet evaporates.
    and i, for one, will join in with anyone - i don’t care what color you are - as long as you want to change this miserable condition that exists on this earth ~ malcom x (image 2)

    Global grievance

    In the report Edelman posited that trust in institutions was no longer a universally shared civic resource. Around the world, it had become a luxury commodity that is heavily segmented by income and social class.

    Putting my cards on the table

    You the reader should question my interpretation as an enquiring mind. With that in mind, it makes sense to understand my starting viewpoint as I started to go through the subject matter. I agreed with the essence that Edelman’s research has captured. And the bifurcation of the economy is being baked into marketing plans that I have worked on over the past few years.

    I have my doubts about their methods. I believe that their motives are good admittedly moderated by commercial considerations, but I did find myself questioning the techniques used and data transparency.

    I set out to find high quality research that validated, or challenged the concept of consumer grievance.

    Edelman’s original approach was triggered by the 1999 ‘Battle of Seattle’. The survey’s structural model was built upon the mid-1990s theories of Francis Fukuyama. Fukuyama argued that institutional trust was primarily driven by upward mobility, structured legal systems, and guaranteed economic prosperity. 

    The Trust Barometer’s original respondents was restricted to “opinion leaders” or “opinion elites”. That mean’t highly affluent college-educated people aged 35 to 64 with high media consumption and active engagement in public policy. The demographic that prospective Edelman clients would sit neatly within.

    Technological and economic change saw Edelman move to a general population sample. They also moved from telephone interviews to online surveys. The number of respondents increased from 1,300 in five countries to 36,000 respondents.

    2020 saw a change in survey design that broke the idea of ‘to do what is right’ into two attributes:

    • Competence
    • Ethical behaviour

    Business did well on competency but less well in ethical considerations. Government, media and NGOs were viewed as lacking in both . Edelman compensated for this by studying proximal trust and employee trust.

    Edelman introduced the concept of ‘trust brokering’ – an organisations capacity to support dialogue and bridge social divides.

    The Genesis of Global Grievance

    With a flair for drama and storytelling Edelman’s Trust Barometer links the decline of trust and the genesis of consumer grievance back to the 1999 ‘Battle of Seattle’ protests against the World Trade Organisation ministerial conference held in the city. While a wide coalition of both left and right political figures, NGOs, organised labour were there to protest against unfettered globalisation the wheels were already in motion.

    …globalization is not new, but that the present era of globalization, driven by competitive global markets, is outpacing the governance of markets and the repercussions on people. Characterized by “shrinking space, shrinking time and disappearing borders”, globalization has swung open the door to opportunities. 

    Breakthroughs in communications technologies and biotechnology, if directed for the needs of people, can bring advances for all of humankind. But markets can go too far and squeeze the non-market activities so vital for human development. Fiscal squeezes are constraining the provision of social services. A time squeeze is reducing the supply and quality of caring labour. And an incentive squeeze is harming the environment. Globalization is also increasing human insecurity as the spread of global crime, disease and financial volatility outpaces actions to tackle them.

    The above quote came from the introduction to the 1999 Human Development Report (HDR) by the United Nationals Development Programme (UNDP).

    As the 1999 HDR introduction alludes, by 1999 globalisation was not new and was already happening from Japanese consumer electronics to Korean shipbuilding. Instead globalisation was moving at a pace that institutions were no longer able to keep up with it or control it.

    This viewpoint is supported by Professor Reich’s lecture on the factors driving the rise voter interest in populist leaders like President Trump. Reich outlines a four decades-long trajectory marked by:

    • The decoupling of productivity from wages. The US Board of Labour & Statistics paper Understanding of the labor productivity and compensation gap, considers the gap to have opened up in the 1970s. The fissure since the 1970s was also documented by the Economic Policy Institute’s work The Productivity-Pay Gap. The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis published research showed how corporate profits decoupled from employee compensation from the early 2000s on.
    • The Reagan era erosion of labour bargaining power. Similar erosion also took place in the UK under the Thatcher government.
    • The concentration of corporate market power. Deregulation from the 1980s on, allowed the financial and corporate sectors to become politically and economically dominant. Reich argued that this created a system average citizens perceived as rigged to favour corporations and big banks over ordinary workers. The 2008 bank bailout while ordinary citizens faced foreclosures cemented this perception. This isn’t only a western issue. 44% of China’s workforce now work in the gig economy.
    • The resulting financial exhaustion of the working and middle classes. American families employed three coping mechanisms to maintain their standard of living. First, they simply worked longer hours. Second, women entered the paid workforce in massive numbers, creating the dual-income household out of necessity. Third, the other measures reached their limit, they tapped into the equity in their homes, until 2008

    The US Bureau of of Labour had three hypotheses for factors driving the labour compensation – productivity gap:

    Globalisation: Increased offshoring shifted production and service activities to other countries. Consequently, income that might have previously gone to domestic workers was reallocated to intermediate purchases and foreign labour.

    Increased Automation: As technological automation increases, the overall need for human labor input drops. When machines replace workers, the share of income dedicated to capital naturally increases relative to the share dedicated to labor.

    Faster Capital Depreciation: Modern business capital, such as computer hardware and software, degrades or becomes obsolete much faster than the heavy machinery used in previous decades. Because these assets must be upgraded or replaced more frequently, a higher share of industry income must be diverted away from wages to cover these ongoing capital replacement costs

    When the report explored specific industry sectors such as electrical power generation and supply, the divergence correlated with a fourth factor, deregulation. This happened to the US energy market in 1992.

    The Energy Policy Act, 1992 created domestic competition. Incumbent local monopolies became more efficient or went under. Productivity was achieved through new technology and aggressive cost-cutting including layoffs. Workers produced far more value per hour, but because the company is fighting to keep prices low to compete, wages didn’t rise at that same rate.

    Two trust economies exist

    But all of these factors didn’t impact across society equally. What Edelman’s Trust Barometer acknowledged, but didn’t highlight at the time was the existence of two trust economies existing in the same space, but for different people.

    The top quartile of income earners trusted the system. The bottom quartile didn’t. This was mirrored in findings by other organisations, notably the OECD’s Government at a Glance 2025 report and UNU WIDER Trust in a changing World 2025 paper.

    There is a decline in governmental trust documented by the Pew Research Center Public Trust in Government: 1958-2025 – a consistent downward trend much longer than 1999, back as far as the mid-1960s for the American public, much earlier than Edelman’s work seems to suggest.

    Business and consumer grievance

    Edelman posits that businesses have become more trusted than governments. It’s a comforting anchor for a business that sells corporate reputation work. The reality may be different. The decline in government trust has merely set a very low bar according to research by Bentley University and Gallup. The rise of zero-sum thinking exemplified by Zero-sum Thinking and the Roots of US Political Differences paper for the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), will sweep business attitudes along as part of systemic distrust. The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace posits that this zero-trust thinking has brought conflict within the US itself and driven protests around the world – globalised consumer grievance.

    The Bridging Divides Initiative (BDI) at Princeton University documented an increase in political violence risk factors across the US mirroring the 1960s and early 1970s . German insurance company Allianz warned that this behaviour represented a risk to large businesses across their operations and supply chains. This is outside and separate to government military actions like the US – Iran conflict or the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

    There are problems inside organisations as well. Employer trust has been in decline according to Edelman. The causes are diverse and amplify consumer grievance:

    • Globalisation
    • Automation and LLMs
    • Economic conditions

    Managers are supervising but failing to manage. They struggle to coach or develop their staff sufficiently.

    Media sector consumer grievance

    The media business is seeing the impact first hand. Fear of deliberate deception is at the cente of the World Economic Forum Global Risks Report for 2025. That fear is driving growing divisions in society and between societies, further feeling consumer grievance. According to The Reuters Institute Digital News Report of the same year these concerns about deception are driving audiences away from ‘legacy’ media companies to platforms of editorialists and opinion formers across podcasts, YouTube and other social platforms.

    Edelman claims that this audience migration is down to beliefs about the motivations of media organisations. 75 percent of high-grievance respondents believe news organisations would rather attract a big audience than report what people actually need to know. 67 percent believe the media prefers to support an ideology over informing the public.

    On slight glimmer from Edelman’s data was that trust in traditional media dropped by four points, versus trust in search engines dropping by five. But that delta will be cold comfort to media executives watching their business being eaten alive by technology platforms.

    Goodwill on the balance sheet

    Goodwill on the balance sheet of a company tries to capture brand value, the value of customer relationships and wider stakeholder trust within a business. PwC research provided some empirical evidence to support RoI on the stakeholder trust component of goodwill. But Edelman overreaches in its 2026 Edelman Trust Barometer Special Report: Brand Growth in an Insular World report to try and do the same with brand value. In this case, Edelman tries to use survey responses, rather than observed behaviour data and the scientific method to try and overturn several decades of validated marketing science research.

    Consumer grievance: so what?

    It’s very easy to ignore consumer grievance as ethereal fiction or background noise. Being part of the solution can end up being part of the problem.

    Brand purpose real talk

    For some brands it make sense to pick a side, but if you do commit to the brand purpose. It may cost you, but if you really have a brand purpose, or ‘higher purpose’ as David Aaker called it, then the 30% opportunity cost in marketing effectiveness is worth it in your calculus.

    Effectiveness expert Les Binet’s two question test on brand purpose makes a lot of sense:

    • Would you still do it if you couldn’t publicise it?
    • Would you still do it if reduced your long term profits?

    If the answer to either question is no, then it’s not purpose driven.

    Brand purpose can be a struggle to retrofit. After the success of Dove being re-positioned from a functional product to the ‘real beauty’ positioning; Unilever looked to replicate the effect with varying degrees of success.

    You also need to be aware of brand purpose not being global. Apple, Meta and Nike have made decisions in Asia that are vastly different to what they do in western markets. There is no coherence or congruency in their world view. Neoliberal universal values died in corporations long before they were devalued in mainstream western political discourse. Both the online world and social media will shine a spotlight on this difference. This perceived corporate hypocrisy will increase consumer grievance and reduce consumer trust in the brand to do ‘the right thing’.

    You could make the argument that Apple, Meta and Nike all fail Binet’s brand purpose test.

    Outside of geopolitical differences, even the most basic demographic differences can be landmines for brand purpose. It’s an accelerant for consumer grievance and one that marketers at the likes of Unilever and P&G have either ducked, or got tonally wrong.

    Patagonia is arguably the most prominent brand purpose led brand, yet it faces a slew of dilemmas. You could argue that Patagonia’s self description as being ‘a work in progress‘ is at best a temporary fix with an uncertain sell-by date during a time of consumer grievance.

    Brand promise

    The brand promise is the idea of what a consumer can expect from the product or service that they are purchasing. There is a temptation to reduce costs. You see this with automated services and reduced sized packaging.

    If you are transparent about the trade-off consumers will self-select and be fine with it. Telecoms companies have been doing this for years.

    • Plusnet – BT’s no-frills ISP
    • Voxi – Vodafone’s self service brand that comes at a discounted price

    Does your consumer journey penalise behaviour instead of rewarding loyalty. if it does, that will fuel consumer grievance. Audit these friction points and act on them. Fix underlying operations-related grievances and the customer lifetime revenue will take care of itself.

    You can more content on consumer behaviour here.