Search results for: “fractal”

  • 2024 – that was twenty twenty four

    2024 introduction


    This retrospective look at 2024 was inspired by a post from 2023. I reflected on the year’s events, with conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine, and numerous elections worldwide.

    Generative AI and cryptocurrency sectors dominated the tech scene. The Farfetch-Coupang deal highlighted the influence of top luxury brands, while Richemont became a speculative takeover target.

    L Catterton’s strategy of acquiring undervalued brands continued in 2024.

    GLP-1 weight management medications trended in healthcare, with tirzepatide as a focus. Advertising saw a downturn in 2023, but a positive outlook was forecasted for 2024 by the IPA Bellwether report.

    January 2024

    IP

    2024 marked the first iteration of Mickey Mouse, known as Steamboat Willie, entered the public domain. Copyright protection had been extended for 95 years due to political pressure from the media industry. Modern variants of Mickey Mouse remain protected.

    Just in time for generative AI to conjure up new variations.

    Florida bypassed intellectual property-based pricing by importing prescription drugs from Canada to reduce costs.

    Mastermind?

    In the trial of British citizen Jimmy Lai in Hong Kong, the prosecution alleged he orchestrated the 2019 protests, overlooking longstanding social issues highlighted by the Beijing liaison office. Lai’s Next Media and Apple Daily, sparked controversy akin to the Daily Star in the UK, but weren’t a counter-revolution.

    If Mr Lai is the figurehead of the Hong Kong protests, it implied fragility within the Chinese state. Committing crimes like sedition and colluding with a foreign power doesn’t require being a mastermind.

    Data Element – X

    China unveils a three-year ‘Data Element – X‘ plan from 2024 to 2026, anticipating a 20% annual growth in data-related sectors—four times the current economic growth rate. Data Element X encompasses various industries and technologies, including machine learning, data processing, big data, databases, data gathering, digital transformation, smart cities, digital twins, cloud computing, and metaverse services. This initiative is poised to gain increasing prominence in international business and policy circles over time.

    Luxury inclusiveness

    LVMH bolstered its watch division, appointing Frédéric Arnault to oversee Hublot, TAG Heuer, and Zenith. Loewe experienced a surge in momentum, highlighted by a campaign featuring veteran actress Dame Maggie Smith and signed Jamie Dornan as a global ambassador for 2024, likely making it the most inclusive luxury campaign of 2024.

    loewe
    Loewe

    Watches of Switzerland saw a decline following a profit warning, there was inadequate forward guidance despite the decline in the luxury watch secondary market since mid-2021. Highsnobiety announced its selection of new luxury brands for 2024.

    new luxury

    January 2024 in marketing and adjacent areas

    The month began slowly, with many decision-makers out of office until January 15th. Byron Sharp published a paper “The Market-Based Assets Theory of Brand Competition” in the Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, challenging classical marketing methodologies of segmentation and targeting. Despite speculation about the demise of CMOs, research suggested it won’t happen yet.

    WPP consolidated major PR brands H&K and BCW, leading to significant job consolidation, particularly in finance and HR. The rebranded business Burson signifies a departure from WPP’s usual naming conventions. The restructuring is expected to impact Europe and Asia-Pacific the most. Provoke Media provided insight. (Disclosure: I previously worked with Corey duBrowa at WE; and later at Burson-Marsteller & Colgate’s Red Fuse agency.)

    CES 2024 expanded beyond consumer electronics, featuring products targeting enterprises. Notable highlights included logistics robots, vehicle microchips, and device operating systems. L’Oreal’s demonstration of 3D printed lipsticks marked a shift towards disrupting manufacturing, and their keynote marked a historic moment for beauty companies at CES.

    Health was a key focus at the 2024 show, but more intriguing developments unfolded at JP Morgan’s Health Care Conference in San Francisco. CES organizers excel in gathering research on consumer electronics and technology, with one slide from their presentation catching my attention this year.

    CES_Tech Trends To Watch 2024

    The slide examines US consumer technology spending, specifically focusing on software and services. Entertainment content continues to dominate, reminiscent of the 1970s, while retailers and e-tailers still profit from high-margin extended warranties like AppleCare. In contrast, digital health services barely register on the chart.

    AI is as ubiquitous at CES 2024 as MSG on my favourite Japanese instant noodles.

    Amazon implemented job cuts, particularly affecting its media divisions such as Prime Video, Twitch, and MGM, amidst industry-wide consolidation efforts. Additionally, Amazon Prime Video introduced an extra fee for ad-free viewing. Technology layoffs continue into 2024, focusing on realignment around AI, impacting companies like Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and SAP.

    According to Davos attendees I know, finance professionals discussed AI-powered trading models, prompting nightmares about Greg Secker becoming Goldman Sachs’ CEO.

    AI-based trading models, previously reliant on fractal theory and the assumption of market organicity akin to Gaia theory, have gained traction. The work of one team was celebrated in Thomas A. Bass’ book “The Predictors,” yet risks remain, illustrated by Nassim Taleb’s Black Swan Concept and the Long-Term Capital Management failure.

    Japanese novelist Rie Kudan discussed her use of AI in her life and writing.

    Stanley’s insulated tumblers gained popularity, with secondary markets like StockX seeing considerable mark-ups. The maximum price paid on StockX was £290.

    stanley

    The Mac turns 40.

    Despite the Philippines’ healthy economic growth forecast of 6% in 2024, CNN Philippines shut down all channels: broadcast, mobile, and online.

    In other news

    During the 2024 New Year period, Japan faced a strong earthquake and a two-plane accident. Fortunately, passengers on one plane escaped without serious injury. In 2024, the UK lost veteran DJ Annie Nightingale, aged 83, known for championing new music, particularly various dance music genres stemming from house music, the warehouse scene, and digital production.

    Annie Nightingale

    The US SEC approves the first cryptocurrency-based ETFs, while Korean Telecom (KT) shut down its NFT platform.

    In Taiwan, Lai Ching-te and the DPP win the election but lack a parliamentary majority.

    Unusual cold weather in the middle of the month was followed by strong winds, caused a large metal wheeled bin to roll down my road.

    In Russia, a law is passed claiming territory previously held by Russia, including Alaska. Meanwhile, the UK considered introducing conscription due to tensions with Russia, but survey respondents express reluctance towards it.

    An FT opinion piece discussed how views among young cohorts have diverged between progressive politics and conservatism, with implications for various political and social issues. Rob Henderson called it the ‘gender equality paradox‘ based on findings in academic research in psychology.

    gender split
    Financial Times

    This highlighted that ‘generations‘ as a marketing concept is a delusion. Richard Reeves’ book “Of Boys And Men” and research by the American Institute of Boys & Men explore reasons for men’s divergent political views from women.

    How January 2024 memed?

    UK quiz show University Challenge went viral after host Amol Rajon responded to a contestant’s answer with, “I can’t accept Drum & Bass. We need Jungle, I’m afraid.” This led to various remixes.

    February 2024

    February 2024 saw the transition in the lunar calendar from the year of the rabbit to the year of the dragon. Flickr turned 20 years old.

    Apple starts taking orders for the VisionPro. The Vision Pro generates lots of reviews. The general consensus was interesting, but not ready for consumer adoption and no one is clear what its ‘killer app’ is. It has this in common with the Mac’s launch some four decades earlier. We forget now that the Mac was seen by IT people as a toy. It didn’t have a ‘use case’ until Adobe and Apple partnered on the LaserWriter PostScript-powered laser printer. This allowed Aldus Software’ PageMaker desktop publishing software to print its designs.

    The iPhone had a similar problem when launched, but the second generation had the app eco-system which sold the iPhone.

    Things I Like: Newton eMate 300
    Apple Newton eMate 300

    The first generation Vision Pro may be a future success, or an interesting diversion like the Apple Cube or the eMate. This explains why there was a high initial return rate of Vision Pro headsets.

    Cube

    nVidia’s quarterly result exceeded expectations by a large margin and the share price went up 17% overnight to 35x earnings. It felt like a bubble, here’s what Malcolm Penn of Future Horizons had to say:

    nVidia’s right place, right time Perfect Storm. nVIDIA’s meteoric rise over the past year was triggered by OpenAI’s ChatGPT launch on November 30, 2022. Once word got out it was using 10,000 nVIDIA GPUs, the flood gates burst open. In a deluge of hope, hype and hysteria, not seen since the late 1990’s Internet driven Dot-com boom, AI is up front and center of every firm’s ambition with stock market investors swooning at dreams of an AI-overlord future. nVIDIA deserves its place in the sun and the chip industry thrives on legendary moments like these. Leaving aside the hype, AI will eventually make current products better and smarter, and enable new products to be build that were previously impossible, it’s what the chip industry does best, but no chip market has ever taken off based on a US$40,000 IC!

    Chinese government contractor I-S00N was hacked and a trawl of data dumped on Github like Mosseck Fonseca. It showed the asymmetry of costs between hacking and being hacked.

    A US Senate hearing spotlights online platforms’ harm to children felt different. Social media platforms faced severe criticism, with Mark Zuckerberg offering apologies. TikTok’s responses sparked debate on the hearings’ undertones, contrasting with Meta’s approach.

    Good news for the Hong Kong economy ahead of lunar new year, with a 7.8% year-on-year increase in December. However, the rise masked challenges, including the popularity of warehouse shopping in Shenzhen, leading to less spent in Hong Kong. Retailers are grappling with the recent growth of Hong Kong’s e-commerce sector. Despite this, excitement was dampened by a failed attempt at ‘tentpole events,’ as an exhibition soccer match with Inter Miami saw the team’s stars benched. The match, organised by Tatler Asia, raises more questions than answers.

    Hong Kong Chief Executive John Lee likely had a better time than Labour Party politician David Lammy, who faced criticism from Indian business elites during a business trip to India over London’s violent Rolex robberies.

    Dutch artist Florentijn Hofman brought his deflating rubber ducks art installation to Kaohsiung port in Taiwan this month.

    Starbucks partnered with Gopuff for late-night coffee deliveries, challenging competitors like Shell filling stations and McDonald’s McCafe.

    Novo Nordisk acquired another pharmaceutical company to grow Wegovy production, potentially affecting future price reductions.

    Tod’s planned to go private in a deal with L Catterton, maintaining majority ownership with the Della Valle family and minority stakes for LVMH. This followed on from the L Catterton deal to take Birkenstock private and then relist at a much higher valuation.

    Adidas and Nike shift away from scarcity models for sneakers, signalling a peak in the secondary market.

    China aimed to revive its housing sector and economy with a cut in home borrowing rates over five years.

    Marketing and adjacent areas

    The Guardian used ‘dadcast’ to describe a podcast perceived as privileged and exhibiting toxic masculinity. There’s speculation about jealousy towards profitable podcasts catering to middle-aged men’s interests. Some noted on LinkedIn that ‘Dad’ is increasingly used in mainstream media as a disparaging term.

    Vice Media undergoes significant layoffs, prompting reflections from the CYBER podcast team on the company’s decline. Amazon reports advertising revenue exceeding 8 percent in Q4 2023, largely at Google’s expense.

    Amazon’s success is attributed to AWS facilitating data collaboration for media buys and Prime Video’s brand-building content. However, a study from Australia finds that brands shifting from linear TV to video on demand lose market share due to ineffective media planning.

    The “bad neighborhood” effect may contribute to poor YouTube performance, with many ads promoting low-quality products.

    Metalheadz celebrates its 30th anniversary with a collaboration with Stüssy. Burberry’s Harrods takeover got attention for dressing the doormen in ‘knight blue’ check.

    Burberry knight blue

    i-D magazine shifted direction, suspending print and online publication but continuing daily updates on social media as part of a new business model and editorial leadership. This move reflected an evolving landscape of fashion publishing.

    Condé Nast parted ways with Vogue China editor Margaret Zhang. Zhang’s background in translating Chinese youth culture for Western audiences in corporate settings may not have prepared her for leading a large editorial team profitably, especially in the digital age. Her lack of immersion in Chinese culture and experiences of online harassment didn’t help.

    Despite challenges, Zhang initiated notable projects such as a mentoring scheme for Chinese designers. Luxury brands like LVMH explored product placement and financing Hollywood projects, tapping into the growing demand for high-end wardrobe in popular shows.

    Taylor Swift’s impact on the Super Bowl contrasted with lacklustre advertisements during the event, while Lunar New Year ads felt safer than usual. Jollibee, a Filipino fast-food chain, succeeded on Valentine’s Day with its film “My Kwentong Valentine’s Day: 30 Dates,” showcasing its connection with customers through relatable storytelling.

    Ring surprised customers with a 43% increase in subscription fees, from £34.99 to £49.99 per device per year for basic plan users, effective March 2024. The price hike sparked outrage among customers, leading to cancellations and tips on locking-in better deals for longer.

    Rabbit AI, touted as the standout product of CES 2024, resorted to static ads on YouTube to boost pre-orders. This approach raised doubts about whether extensive global media coverage and event hype resulted in a substantial waiting list.

    Seeing a lot of these Rabbit pre-order ad spots

    Humane AI, which launched in 2023, announced a delay in shipping their AI personal assistant. Meanwhile, the BBC updates its approach to using generative AI responsibly, a process evolving since October last year when initial principles were established. Kara Swisher published Burn Book; her memoir as a tech journalist, which is part-therapy, part dot-com boom to late state capitalism evolution of Silicon Valley. More in my review here.

    Unbeknownst to many, the BBC has a history of innovation, evidenced by creations like the LS3/5A loudspeaker design originating from a 1972 BBC research paper. Over the years, the BBC has adopted a ‘co-pilot’ approach to language translation for its World Service, utilizing a service called Frank, initially funded under the EU GoURMET programme.

    The recent BBC update focused on enhancing content propagation through different formats and more personalized marketing, raising concerns about reducing a common truth across diverse audiences and potentially exacerbating societal polarization.

    In other news, The Body Shop appointed administrators, drawing attention to its challenges since its acquisition by L’Oreal.

    The power of design

    Europe doesn’t get to enjoy the bold design of the 2024 Lexus GX, which combines luxury with a rugged Tonka toy aesthetic, surpassing even Mercedes’ G-Wagen.

    YouTube’s top car reviewer, Doug DeMuro, likened the GX’s impact to that of a Lamborghini Countach.

    London Fashion Week was either hybrid or reminiscent of past eras, lasting just four days. Highsnobiety hosted events under the ‘Not in London‘ banner. London Fashion Week was 40 this year, as was UK magazine Gay Times, which underwent a process of reinvention as it slips into middle age.

    Tate & Lyle updated designs for its Golden Syrup on plastic packaging and extensions, but not on its traditional tin.

    How February 2024 memed?

    Let’s steer clear of the conspiracy theories about Taylor Swift. Instead, consider the “AI-two step,” a term I got via Antony Mayfield. It describes the process of job destruction in knowledge worker sectors through the implementation of AI-enabled software: step one involves introducing these processes, followed by step two: gradual layoffs to avoid media attention. This phenomenon parallels last year’s “Patagonia vest recession.”

    March 2024

    March began with cold, rainy weather as I freelanced at PRECISIONeffect. In Rochdale, a veteran politician won the election, known for anti-Israel and pro-Russia views. The Washington Post obtained documents revealing Russian misinformation campaigns. The United States and the Jordanian air force airdropped food aid along the Gaza Strip coast after land delivery resulted in 100 deaths. Train fares increased, causing frustration with Avanti West Coast cancellations. Taylor Swift concerts were discussed for their geopolitical impact. President Biden addressed gender inequality in medical research, and Chalmers University in Sweden unveiled a computer model predicting 90% of lymphatic cancer cases.

    Luxury

    Omega ran a teaser campaign that harks back to its long association with the NASA Silver Snoopy award and the Speedmaster range of chronograph watches. The timing of this release was about getting ahead of the bevy of new products launched at Watches & Wonders trade show. It was yet another Swatch homage to the Omega Speedmaster, in white plastic and an animated Snoopy, which is like Gordon Ramsay shilling for Pepperami.

    snoopy
    Omega

    Bangkok, Thailand, now a hub of Asian pop culture, boasts local artists rivalling former Cantopop and K-pop stars in Southeast Asia. Louis Vuitton’s The Place in Bangkok offers a unique retail experience combining exhibition, immersive experience, restaurant, and luxury store.

    Trade magazine Business of Fashion and Bloomberg called out LVMH quiet luxury brand Loro Piana over exploitation of indigenous people in Peru.

    “In New York, Milan or London, the fashion house Loro Piana sells a vicuña sweater for about $9,000. Barrientos’ Indigenous community of Lucanas, whose only customer is Loro Piana, receives about $280 for an equivalent amount of fiber. That doesn’t leave enough to pay Barrientos, whose village expects her to work as a volunteer.”

    Marcelo Rochabrun for Bloomberg

    Matchesfashion.com went into administration, three months it was bought as a turnaround target. This is the latest in a number of distressed multi-label boutiques. Farfetch was sold out Coupang at the end of 2023.

    Marketing and related areas

    My blog renaissance chambara turned 20 years old on March 13, 2024, and the stone tablets of advertising planning were made 50 years ago. BBH did a nice essay on the original JWT London planning guide here. It was 35 years since De La Soul released their iconic first album 3 Foot High and Rising – now remastered with bonus unreleased tracks.

    De La Soul
    De La Soul by DeShawn Craddock

    Remember when Adidas parted ways with Kanye West (back in 2022)? Well, Adidas waited until March to sell the last tranche of shoes from the Yeezy range. Later on, they announced their first net loss since 1992. The resurgence of interest in the Gazelle and Samba shoes through spring and summer last year were not enough to plug the gap. Adidas hopes that China will drive double digit growth, though the Chinese market can be volatile and there are more homegrown and foreign brands to compete with. In the meantime, pain was piled on pain, with the German football association opting to go with Nike rather than Adidas from 2027.

    The US Congress passed a law to force Bytedance to sell TikTok, or, face a ban from US app stores within six months. ‘The TikTok Ban‘ – so TikTok had user deluge politicians with calls. The advertising world went into a tizzy about THE TIKTOK BAN.

    Less commented on was LinkedIn’s ability to embed video in posts like this, or create hyperlinks within articles using its editing functions became broken. Hence the move to images and writing this offline and cut-and-pasting back in which at least kept hyperlinks.

    What was almost as important, but got a lot less coverage was the news that Meta was finally going to zuck CrowdTangle with a shutdown due in August this year. NewsWhip tried to step into the breach left by the demise of Crowdtangle.

    The continued inflation pressuring low income households was good news for instant noodles. According to the FT, their long shelf life made them a hedge against inflation. Lower income customers bought instant noodles to make ends meet, Nestlé was pressured by ESG investors to pivot towards healthier foods.

    Maggi logo
    Nestlé

    Nestlé brand Maggi – is one of Asia’s most popular instant noodle, soups and seasonings, which is likely to fall foul of the ESG push.

    CNN estimated that the Bud Light influencer marketing campaign with Dylan Mulvaney cost $1.38 billion in revenue terms through 2023. In the aftermath of the Bud Light backlash, AB InBev’s share of the US beer market declined by 5.2 percentage points in the second quarter, dropping to 36.9%. By February, the company had closed the deficit from its May peak by 1.2 percentage points, with a steady rate of ground gained every three or four weeks. However, the expenditure required to close this gap remains undisclosed.

    Unilever announced the spin-off of its ice cream brands, framing it as a shift towards higher-performing brands. It’s surprising that Magnum and Ben & Jerry’s weren’t considered high-performing, suggesting a macro view on categories. Combining them with the Heart brands’ ice creams made sense from a supply chain and distribution perspective, possibly driving the decision.

    Other news

    Iris Apfel at O Cinema Miami Beach to present IRIS, by Albert Maysles

    Iris Apfel, known in fashion and textiles for decades, passed away at the age of 102. She began her career writing for WWD (Women’s Wear Daily) before founding Old World Weavers Inc., which reproduced textiles from the past for restoration projects. Apfel managed the business for nearly five decades before retiring in 1992. Her fame as a socialite grew from her client base, and soared after her retirement. Her unique style, influenced by five decades of travel, garnered attention, leading to the publication of her autobiography and representation by IMG.

    We also lost science fiction writer Vernor Vinge, author of True Names – a predictor of the modern internet. David Brin wrote a poignant tribute to Vinge. Psychologist Daniel Kahneman died aged 90.

    Joseph E. Chandler
    Joseph E. Chandler by Kerri Chandler

    The term “house music legend” has been used casually, but it aptly describes veteran New York DJ/producer Kerri Chandler. In honour of his father Joseph E. Chandler, a disco-era DJ who influenced him, Chandler released 73 tracks for free download. His father would have turned 73 had he lived.

    Karl Wallinger, frontman of World Party, has passed away. He is best known for his song “She’s The One,” famously covered by Robbie Williams.

    How March 2024 memed?

    The meme likely to define the year, akin to last year’s Patagonia vest recession, was coined by Scott Galloway: Corporate Ozemic. It encapsulates businesses’ adoption of LLM-based services to automate workflows and reduce staff. Klarna, a pay-later business, served as a poster child, admitting to displacing 700 former employees.

    At SXSW, there was audience pushback against ‘AI’, a phenomenon not seen during the dot com boom. Big tech needed to invest heavily in political campaigns, lobbyists, PR firms, and lawyers.

    The first photo of Princess Kate since her surgery was withdrawn by Associated Press for manipulation that didn’t meet their standards. Speculation ensued, leading to a popular meme identified by StickyBeak. Later a BBC video disclosed her cancer treatment.

    Kate Middleton's family picture memeing

    April 2024

    April started as a bank holiday in the UK and Europe. The global economy has very mixed data. In the UK, the NHS looked to roll out insulin pumps to a lot of people with type 1 diabetes. Google introduced its medicine-specific large language models. Health technology business ZOE lays off a number of staff.

    Luxury

    Industry exhibition Watches and Wonders 2024 saw new timepieces from fashion brands like Chanel and Hermés alongside watch-makers like IWC and Rolex. Rolex’ gold Deepsea is the most conspicuous luxury item that I have seen to date. It’s a sold wedge of gold, ceramic and titanium.

    As a tool watch, the Deepsea is a ridiculously large slab of stainless steel. In gold it became surreal and garish due to its scale. Gold has very different physical properties to stainless steel, which is why key structural parts are having to be made from titanium and ceramics. It weighed in at 397 grams, or the equivalent of wearing two large iPhone 15 Pro Max’ on your wrist.

    Gold Sea-Dweller deepsea is quite a statement

    The Deepsea was the antithesis to the growth in women’s watches at the show like a last stand of toxic masculinity embodied in horology. Meanwhile export earnings by LVMH, were larger than the whole of France’s agricultural sector. Earth Day happens across LinkedIn. The best thing I read was the pointed critique why Vogue Business didn’t cover it.

    No brand is doing enough to warrant a celebration of its impact on the planet.

    Rachel Cernansky, Vogue Business

    Marketing and related areas

    JP Morgan announced a new advertising venture utilising Chase customer spending data. It was unclear whether this mirrors the brand partnership agreements like those of Amex, or if it entails a more programmatic approach.

    An investigation of Forbes alleged that the publication was selling premium priced online advertising inventory on ‘spammy’ sub-domain for seven years. This raised yet more questions about the wisdom of using online media.

    Hootsuite acquired TalkWalker; adding social media listening to its publishing and reporting capabilities. Meta’s Threads announces an intention to provide a Threads API in June and published developer documentation.

    Japan’s LDP uses an AI-generated slogan for its election campaign. Economic revitalisation: Providing tangible results. – was chosen from 500 options written by copywriters and AI respectively.

    Online and tech

    Google Podcasts is shutdown, more on the Google product death march here. Google leaked Apple’s plans for RCS support. Apple launched the first major update to VisionOS allowing for shared experiences. It was ideal for education or training scenarios. eBay UK went free-to-sell for individual sales of pre-used fashion, taking Depop head-on. News-focused Twitter alternative Post.news announced plans to shut down over the next few weeks. Humane AI’s pin device not well received by reviewers despite impressive engineering.

    Other news

    Pharrell Williams launched a new album called Black Yacht Rock, while creative director at Louis Vuitton. It was my album of 2024.

    https://flic.kr/p/2pJAup9

    Hong Kong’s ban on many single-use plastics comes into force, with criticism from retail and hospitality sectors. 1990s skate brand iPath comes back from the dead.

    How April 2024 memed?

    Probably the biggest story online was how Rishi Sunak wore a box fresh pair of Adidas Samba soccer training shoes to an interview and went viral online. Sunak later apologised for wearing the shoes, but the style damage was considered to be done already for Adidas (at least in the UK).

    Rishi Sunak MP
    Rishi Sunak

    May 2024

    The end of April and beginning of May was uncharacteristically cool and wet. We had an impressively loud thunder storm. Universities in the US and Europe cleared out campuses occupied in protest at the Palestinian cause. This had a ‘Streisand effect’ like impact, internationalising the protests. Novo Nordisk looks for even further uses for semaglutide – looking at alcohol use and liver damage along with a trial currently running looking at potential benefits with regards Alzheimers.

    For months previously, the political discourse I heard around me was that we need change. Sunak needs to go. Sunak announced a July 4th election with just six weeks of campaigning and most of the amateur pundits I knew looked as if they had been on the wrong side of a Power Slap championship match.

    Luxury news

    Supreme
    Stan Wiecher

    Premium priced streetwear brand Supreme turns 30, but it’s not all good news as Vogue Business claimed Stüssy’s drops are more popular than those by the younger upstart. Synthetic diamonds had a moment for a while in the US jewellery trade. But now that Danish jewellery brand Pandora has succeeded with synthetic diamonds it feels like global mainstream sales are just around the corner.

    TAG Heuer teamed with Kith and brings back the Formula 1 at the 2024 Miami formula one Grand Prix race. It is a watch that sits somewhere between a scuba Swatch and the Luminox dive watch.

    Luxury’s involvement in NFTs resulted in Dolce & Gabbana being taken to court over an NFT-related metaverse offering.

    Can two turkeys make an eagle? Balenciaga and Under Armour seemed to think so with their collaboration revealed on social media at the end of May.

    PDD Holdings, the owners of tat merchant Temu and Chinese e-tailing platform Pinduoduo became worth more than China’s Amazon analogue Alibaba. Tough market conditions for luxury and a decline in the consumer relevance of TMall vs. Pinduoduo may be partly responsible for this.

    Marketing, media and advertising news

    ZAK published a report on how different cultures are having a global influence. It tells a nice story that conceals a layer of complexity. For instance, Hallyu has been an overnight success, the best part of four decades in the making with the sales of international dramas and films. I do like their model on brand partnerships.

    It was lovely to see a project that my former colleague Rohit worked on had won a bronze award at the New York Festivals Health Awards for a film that was made to explain a key concept that differentiated the client’s vaccine.

    Marketers and long-time Apple customers complain about Apple’s crush! advertisement. YouTube followed Apple’s lead in censorship in Hong Kong, following a Hong Kong court ruling banning protest anthem ‘Glory to Hong Kong‘ from appearing online. Unlike YouTube, Apple didn’t need a court order to ban HKmap back in 2019 during the citywide protests.

    Nestlé launched its Vital Pursuit range in the US. This is a range of high-fibre, high protein foods with calorie-controlled portions aimed at consumers using weight loss medications based on GLP-1. Kao expanded its ambition for ESG, as Unilever went in the opposite direction.

    media spend

    WARC research predicted that Meta advertising will imminently equal or even surpass global linear television. This doesn’t include connected television, or indicate that Meta advertising has comparable brand building effectiveness to linear television. It also doesn’t include the wide variance in customer base. Meta has enjoyed a large amount of growth from China based direct-to-consumer e-tailers and apps like Temu and Shein.

    Online media powerhouse LADBible expands its commercial footprint to cover south east Asia and Hong Kong through partner Val Morgan Digital. And the London Evening Standard stops publishing on a daily basis, moving to a weekly format thanks to changes in working amongst Londoners.

    Other news

    _DSF8978

    We lost Tony O’Reilly this month. O’Reilly was Richard Branson-like figure in Ireland. He was famous for creating Kerrygold dairy products way back in 1968. He also negotiated a distribution deal for Erin Foods with Heinz and ended up running Heinz up until 2000.

    Film executive Roger Corman died. Corman’s impact on Hollywood was pervasive. He wrote, directed and produced cult classic films in his own right. He fostered talent that went on to great things and distributed important foreign films from French new wave directors to Akira Kurosawa.

    Technology news

    Apple continued to suffer from depressed sales in China and launches new iPad models for the first time in two years. OpenAI totally did not copy Scarlett Johansson’s voice in a creepy homage to the Spike Jonze film Her. As The Atlantic wrote at the time:

    The Scarlett Johansson debacle is a microcosm of AI’s raw deal: It’s happening, and you can’t stop it.

    OpenAI Just Gave Away the Entire Game – The Atlantic

    This is important not only from a technology point of view, but from the mindset of systemic sociopathy had become pervasive in Silicon Valley. Meanwhile Goldman Sachs thought generative AI will eventually boost GDP and productivity.

    Key details about how Google search works was leaked and poured over by search marketers and the media.

    Spotify ended support for its Car Thing device and offering refunds to consumers.

    How May 2024 memes?

    Kendrick Lamar // Melkweg Amsterdam

    Kendrick Lamar and Drake had a running feud. Lamar made allegations of Drake having a secret child and alleged that Drake slept with minors. A straw poll of people I know, seemed to show that on balance they were team ‘Kenny’.

    June 2024

    May 2024 ended in a similar manner to the way it had started with blustery showers, though we did get a bit of sunshine in between. I had worked through the end of April and May on a project for GREY / TANK Worldwide. It was a great experience working with GREY team members based in Copenhagen, Port Elizabeth and Mumbai, alongside a TANK team based in London.

    We went into June 2024 with a UK general election hanging over us with voting due on July 4, 2024. Labour party candidates only finalised selection on 4 June 2024. IPSOS provided some of the best voter intent data.

    It’s hard to communicate how little enthusiasm there was for the general election. The news agenda seldom touched on the election, but was captured by gambling related scandals that embarrassed both the Conservatives and Labour.

    ITV hosted one of the worst formatted events I have seen for a television electoral debates.

    The 45-second answer format allowed for little more than formulated soundbites rather than a nuanced informed debate. Neither candidate impressed. The 41st edition of British Social Attitudes (BSA) report, published by the National Centre for Social Research revealed a lack of confidence in UK’s system government and its politicians – which meant that all parties had an uphill battle ahead of them.

    In Hong Kong, the authorities used Article 23 for the first time to arrest and charge seven people. This seemed to be an action to pre-empt any commemoration of the June 4th protest movement and subsequent Tiananmen crackdown. Among them was barrister Chow Hang-tung, who was already facing a possible 10-year prison sentence under the 2020 National Security law.

    Tianamen Candlelight Vigil 2015
    Tianamen Candlelight Vigil 2015 – VeryBusyPeople

    Chow faced an additional seven years in prison for inciting “hatred and distrust of the central government, the Hong Kong government and the judiciary” via social media.

    All of this added additional complexity for Meta and Google in the territory and was at odds with Hong Kong government efforts to reignite its past status as Asia’s ‘world city’ through tourism and inbound investment. Cathay Pacific was pressured by the government to focus more on Middle East destinations.

    Luxury

    Karl Lagerfeld prodigy Virginie Viard left Chanel. Chanel had been commercially successful under Viard. Her departure was the final break with the Karl Lagerfeld legacy. Fendi announce their own range of in-house manufactured perfumes, selling for a cool £300 each.

    OTB announced it is to sell NFC tagged items that would be verified via Aura blockchain. This will is rolled out in the fall / winter collections of Jil Sander, Maison Margiela and Marni. Expect this to become commonplace as European Union digital passport rules come into force.

    LVMH buys L’Épée 1839 – who make decorative clocks and kinetic artworks. L’Épée 1839 is stocked in luxury jewellers like Pagnell and Bucherer. Speculation re-emerged about a LVMH acquisition of Richemont.

    Frasers acquired multi-brand online boutique Coggles from THG.

    A number of western luxury brands closed their Tmall stores (AMBUSH, NYX Professional Makeup, Mark Jacobs Fragrances). Commentators point out that the cost of running and promoting a store on Tmall had got too expensive.

    Balenciaga created a haute couture dress that is designed to unravel after its first wear. It’s an ocean of nylon mesh that sparked concerns about luxury ‘fast fashion’.

    Marketing, media and advertising news

    Mainland Chinese restaurant and café brands LMM Lemon Tea 柠濛濛, Western Hunan fast-casual chain Luobo Xiangnan 萝卜向南, Takoyaki chain Gulugulu 咕噜丸子屋, and BBQ brand Xita Laotaitai 西塔老太太 shut their Hong Kong stores. An increase in Hong Kongers going to Shenzhen due to the strong US dollar (which the Hong Kong dollar is pegged to vs. the yuan) and a lack of tourists are thought to be partly to blame.

    Spotify allegedly used audiobook bundling as a way to reduce payments to publishers and songwriters. ChiefMartec’s 2024 landscape of marketing technology finds that the amount of products has now grown by over a quarter to over 14,100 and claims that there are over 400,000 marketing agencies around the world. All of this is played out as marketing platforms from Amazon, Bytedance, Meta, Microsoft and Alphabet have steadily consolidated greater share of marketing spend.

    The long-running discussions between Skydance and National Amusements which held the fate of Paramount Pictures in the balance were stopped. Discussions had been ongoing since the end of 2023.

    The UK general election campaign was mischaracterised in the media as ‘the first TikTok election‘. According to GWI, the biggest platforms for political content in the UK were X (21%), YouTube (20%), and Facebook (18%). Labour had outspent the Conservatives on advertising prior to legal restrictions kicking in; but Conservative posts seem to have got the most impressions for their money.

    Harley-Davidson took UK retailer Next to court over trademark infringement on clothing design. Vodafone’s The Nation’s Network creative work starts to appear. The insight tried to address the very human truth of wider feelings of disconnection in the general public. However, given that Vodafone had been trying to consolidate its network with Three UK, the tagline seemed disingenuous to some observers. Why would Vodafone need to merge with Three if it was already the nation’s network?

    Design newsletter Sidebar retired (at least for a while), 12 years and the cost of running a daily newsletter hitting 90,000 subscribers took its toll. All of which makes Dave Farber’s Interesting People list seem even more remarkable. At the time, Interesting People had been running since May 1993.

    WPP’s consolidation of brands continued with Burson .

    The New York Times partnered with grocery delivery service Instacart on shoppable recipes. This was not only an opportunity for quality media, but a threat to the likes of Fresh Direct and other DTC meal kit companies.

    Defunct radio station brand Atlantic 252 returned to the airwaves over 20 years after going off-line. the media pack claimed a 40+ target audience with whom the brand has some recognition.

    Chinese brands were prominent sponsors of the UEFA Euros 2024: Hisense, Ant Group, Vivo, BYD, and AliExpress. Cannes festival of advertising saw a campaign that I was involved with shortlisted. The film was aimed at healthcare professionals in Greece and the Philippines.

    2024 Cannes festival of advertising had a focus change towards audience enjoyment, while downplayed the focus on purpose. Ad agencies were reassured by platforms like Tiktok and Meta not wanting to squash them and steal their clients.

    It didn’t take long for private equity funded YouTube channels to see an exodus of talent.

    Speculation revolved around IPG agencies R/GA and MullenLowe.

    Other news

    Donald Sutherland

    Donald Sutherland, the offbeat tank commander in Kellys Heroes and arch villain in the Mockingbird film series died at 88.

    Technology news

    Mixed reality business Magic Leap announces a strategic partnership with Google. Magic Leap seemed to be focusing on its optical design, with Google handling software duties. Google got rid of its endless search results page.

    Microsoft announced further layoffs limiting mixed reality plans to existing defence and enterprise contracts. There were also lay-offs in cloud services.

    Raspberry Pi announced a low-power on-device AI option that could work for uses like facial recognition. This represented an opportunity for hobbyists and product designers. It wasn’t as powerful as Intel’s Lunar Lake or Qualcomm’s SnapDragon powered processors.

    Apple WWDC 2024 saw generative AI techniques integrated into the company’s operating systems, applications and software development kits. Apple took steps to do as much work on device as possible and ensure privacy when cloud processing was used. Apple announced that Apple Intelligence related features will not be on EU phones in 2024.

    Japan forced Apple, Microsoft and Google to allow third-party app stores. The EU introduced tariffs on Chinese manufactured electric vehicles and took legal action against the Apple app store and Microsoft Teams.

    Several retailers and FMCG companies came together to call for the QRcode to replace the barcode on products as part of the GS1 standard. As regulatory standards like the EU’s digital product passport regulations come in, the barcode is no longer fit for purpose. Amazon started to compete directly with Temu and Shein.

    Habbo Hotel returned. Illegal movie streaming site Fmovies goes offline. It turned out that the network of sites were run from Vietnam.

    Goldman Sachs published a sobering analysis on generative AI from productivity gains to likely return on investment. This became popularised in July amongst investors and business leaders. It is at odds with Mary Meeker’s assessment of generative AI.

    How June 2024 memed?

    Across both Chinese and western social media, the ‘boyfriend photographer‘ trended. The general consensus was that boyfriends didn’t take the best pictures of their girlfriends for their social media account, at best they were snaps. Girlfriends looking for reciprocal pictures were better photographers.

    Boyfriend photographer meme

    July 2024

    By mid-June it still hadn’t felt like summer had arrived, but silly season had arrived. Surrey police rammed an escaped adolescent cattle. The Conservatives polled as low as 23 percent prior to the general election.

    As June rolled into July, the heat arrived and then went. For polling day we had bright sunshine and a pleasant breeze. Before the rain rolled back. We were well into the middle of July before the heat arrived.

    Advertising and marketing news

    The middle of 2024 saw some high profile interest in M&A activity. Following on from IPG-related news; WPP rebuffed a private equity offer to buy FGS Global. Carlsberg bought Britvic, the UK’s Pepsi bottler and a soft drinks brand in its own right. This will have implications for agencies as Britvic is integrated. Ford brought back the Capri as a mum truck. But the teaser campaign to build hype and ultimately disappoint car enthusiasts was pretty clever. The new 2024 Capri is a badge engineered Volkswagen.

    Luxury

    Private club memberships hit a slump in Hong Kong. Secondary market prices on memberships trade at a 20% discount. Factors include reduction in corporate memberships, less business being carried out in the city, less expats and less of a nightlife orientation for mainland 1000 talents visa holders from the mainland.

    Ford RS200 - Double
    Boreham Motorworks

    Ford partnered up with Boreham Motorworks and announces a continuation / restomod of the RS200 and the mark 1 Escort RS2000. Teenage me would have been very excited at this news. 2024 marked the 40th anniversary of the launch of the Ford RS 200.

    Burberry decided it needed to become more accessible and replaced its CEO. Sunglasses oligopoly EssilorLuxottica bought Supreme from VF Corporation just as the streetwear brand had entered its wilderness period. Formula 1 dandy Lewis Hamilton became a brand ambassador and guest designer for Dior menswear. LVMH brand TAG Heuer became formula 1’s timing partner from the 2025 season, displacing Rolex.

    Giorgio Armani moved out of fashion watches and into the luxury segment with the 11, made by Parmigiani Fleurier. Originally these had been launched as a 200-piece limited edition in 2022, but the advertising seems to indicate an ongoing product now.

    armani x parmigiani

    Virgin Atlantic announced the cancellation of its last far east route; Shanghai finished at the end of October 2024. L Catterton bought into Bicester Village – a UK based luxury outlet mall.

    Media and online

    Twitter rejoins GARM as a move towards increased brand safety needed to start getting advertisers back. Social media network Noplace launched. It is designed to appeal to the nostalgia for better online times circa 2008. The Wall Street Journal fired Hong Kong-based journalist Selina Cheng for being elected to the HKJA ( Hong Kong Journalists Association) – a local professional association. The WSJ approach – espoused support for western values and progressive principles BUT not in China or Hong Kong.

    Apple did a deal with Taboola for its Apple News service. OpenAI launched SearchGPT and Reddit barred a number of major search engines from crawling its service except Google. Over three years after Google planned ‘depreciating’ third party cookies, it took until July 2024 for the company to backtrack on this plan. Apple launched a web version of Apple Maps.

    The IPA Bellwether report indicated continued increase in marketing spending.

    Other news

    Trump

    During the US presidential campaign Donald Trump was shot at. President Biden declared that he wasn’t going to run for a second term. Kamala Harris became the candidate to run against Donald Trump and JD Vance. England went through to the final of the Euros. China’s third plenum signalled a continuation of the Xi administration’s economic approach with little change to take account of domestic conditions.

    90210.jpg
    Shannen Doherty and fellow Beverly Hills 90210 star Luke Perry in happier times.

    Beverly Hills 90210 was ubiquitous on television in the 1990s and its stars became some of the best known faces. One of the most famous, Shannen Doherty died on July 14th.

    Cheng Pei Pei

    We lost Hong Kong film actress Cheng Pei-pei. Cheng was a martial arts star who came up through the Shaw Brothers studio system and made her mark as female protagonist Golden Swallow in Come Drink with Me. Over six decades she appeared in films shot across Asia, America, Australia and Europe. She reached a western audience in Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon – reprising the wushu skills she’d used in numerous Shaw Brothers films.

    Technology

    Samsung launched a ring (Samsung Galaxy Ring) which monitors health-related data and syncs with the company’s smartphones and watches. Sasan Goodarzi at Intuit fires over 1,000 people for ‘poor performance’ as a big bet on automation. Apple mocked for ‘launching‘ a black Apple HomePod under a different name. Crowdstrike struck out countless enterprise Windows PCs through botched update to security software. On the plus side, it happened on a Friday.

    I was wilfully ignoring the Olympics in Paris, but the sabotage of the high-speed rail system caught my attention. It reminded me of a 2002 attack on the BT network.

    How July 2024 memed?

    Change

    2024 was a year of elections around the world. July 2024 saw two big elections, the general election in the UK and the French national legislature. The UK general election saw a new labour party government headed by Kier Starmer. This ended a 14-year run of conservative governments. In France, president Macron saw a European parliament election and national legislature election which rejected his leadership. It wasn’t a good time to be an incumbent politician.

    240613_Alex-Kier_Starmer-PR0045

    August 2024

    The end of July brought a heatwave. Early August cooled slightly and we had a bit of rain. The hot weather brought a febrile atmosphere to the UK, which resulted in riots.

    The government did a slow drip feed of news about how broken the UK economy is in advance of the autumn budget. The conceit that they didn’t know in advance wore thin according to the Institute of Fiscal Studies.

    nike - winning isnt for everyone

    I did my best to ignore the 2024 Olympics in Paris; but the William Defoe voiced Nike ad broke through. It’s a really nice piece of craft, it divided opinions. I would love to know what communications job was the advert supposed to do? Because only then can we really understand if it was successful or not. Nike would not have been happy with the negative criticism regarding the table tennis bat licking which was seen to be insulting China.

    adidas terrex

    The Nike ad contrasted with the film Adidas did featuring Japanese olympian Nonaka Miho (Japanese names have the family name first).

    But Nike was right winning isn’t for everyone; and their financial results were not winning for shareholders who had a lot of complain about through 2023 and 2024. The UK had a similar problem to Nike, not fulfilling its promise; Labour looked under hood and saw that £20 billion of spending plans were unfunded.

    Luxury

    Chanel launches a smartwatch / earphones combo. Other luxury companies had tried to play in the connected space in the past from an LG / Prada collaboration in the mid to late 2000s to TAG Heuer’s smartphone and smart watch products. Jing Daily, a luxury business publication focused on China finally launched its ‘pro‘ subscription-based tier.

    Marketing

    No sooner had Kelloggs broken into two companies, than Mars purchased Kellanova – the maker of Pringles and Poptarts. The Mars purchase is a bet against the transformation of grocery sales by GLP-1 weight management treatments. Agency consolidation is an area of obvious efficiency gains. Steve Bartlett, the Social Chain and Flight Group founder, had ads banned for Huel and Zoe.

    Generative AI-assisted search engine Perplexity announced plans for advertising before end of 2024.

    Online

    MySpace turned 21 years old. US authorities win an antitrust case against Google.

    TechCrunch Disrupt Europe: Berlin 2013

    France arrested Telegram founder and CEO Pavel Durov. This broke new ground in an attempt to regulate platforms. Twitter got banned in Brazil. BlueSky added support for video and features to limit dogpiling and hostile quote posts.

    Middle class families in the UK and Ireland disappointed as demand and ticket touts outstripped supply of Oasis reunion tour tickets. I found Creamfields underwhelming.

    Other news

    We lost internet publishing pioneer and journalist Mike Magee. French actor Alain Delon died. He starred in Le Cercle Rouge and La Samourai amongst 90 film appearances and was the face of Dior Eau Sauvage.

    dior
    Alain Delon by Perfums Dior

    Retail legend Myron E. Ullman III died. Ullman started at IBM, but then built a career driving successful retail operations at Macy’s, DFS (Duty-Free Shopping) now part of LVMH, Starbucks and JC Penney.

    Technology

    Google gets rid of the Chromecast, replacing it with a set-top box. Nvidia announced it was using an LLM machine learning model to aid in design of its graphics processing unit (GPU), central processing unit (CPU) and networking chips. Their intent was to speed up design process and increase the pace of chip development.

    IBM shuttered its R&D facility in China. Technology website Anandtech, most famous for its deep thorough reviews of of significant products closed down. Online ad business The Trading Desk was rumoured to be developing a smart TV operating system in order get more advertising revenue and share some of it with TV set brands.

    How August 2024 memed?

    Misinformation

    Cardiff-born Axel Rudakubana attacked a Taylor Swift-themed children’s party in Southport. He was charged with three murders and ten counts of attempted murder. False information on Rudakubana’s background, religion and immigration status spread across social media.

    Thuggery

    This sparked riots in Southport, Rotherham, Hartlepool and Sunderland. A mosque was attacked and at least some of the violence was put down to far right activists. The far right were involved in much of the online discussion of false information. Twitter received much of the blame for being a conduit of the misinformation. The UK government warned social media platforms of their obligations under UK law. The misinformation was repeated in WhatsApp messaging groups, causing one county councillor in Wales to resign his position after spreading false information. The evidence of Russian involvement in the misinformation activity is scant at best. Kier Starmer’s comment about ‘rot deep in the heart‘ of British institutions and politics could equally well be extended to British society.

    A similar attack claimed by the Islamic State that happened in Solingen, Germany didn’t result in Southport-style rioting.

    September 2024

    I spent August in the north and much of the weather I experienced felt more like spring or autumn than summer. This wasn’t just summer showers, but the storm force winds that came with it. The weather seemed appropriate for the tempestuous feel of the United Kingdom at that moment.

    September 1st, the temperature went back up to 27 celsius, with showers and thunderstorms, the torrential rain continued through the week.

    Party conference was somewhat overshadowed by a drip-feed of low-level revelations of donor gifts.

    Business news

    2024 turned out to be an annus horribilis for large German industrial companies. Volkswagen announced a plan to shutter one or more German car plants. The company failed to recognise its sales problems stemmed from multiple issues including vehicle quality, a failure to build hybrid vehicles and poor pricing strategy for purchase vs. leasing. Ex-Bain Consulting executive John Donahue shown the door at Nike – after failure to recover from strategic and tactical decisions were dumpster fires at a time of increased competition from the likes of On Running and Hoka. Donahue’s actions cratered the Nike share price, it rose 10 percent on news of his departure.

    Luxury news

    Charles, Prince of Wales

    Queen Elizabeth passed away two years ago This meant royal warrants, that are perceived as a mark of quality were changed to reflect the King’s views and tastes. Brands where royal warrants were lost, worried about brand impact. Brands that gained a royal warrant, gained some perceived value – but probably won’t have the impact it did when Elizabeth came to the throne.

    Loro Piana and New Balance launched a co-branded version of the 990 v6 shoe. You paid $1,500 for the cobranded shoe, rather than $240 usually charged. The two-speed luxury sector continues into September 2024, with Burberry removed from the FTSE 100.

    gucci
    Gucci

    Gucci got in on the act of having an older muse a la Loewe and with a campaign featuring Debbie Harry. Talking of an older muse, Donald Trump launched a $100,000 gold watch with a Trump branded dial. LVMH sold Off-White, the streetwear brand founded by the late Virgil Abloh.

    Marketing

    UK retailer John Lewis brings back ‘never knowingly undersold’ price promise. ASOS sold Topshop and Topman. Sony announces a free version of Grand Turismo 7 to celebrate 30 years of the PlayStation to be launched at the end of the year. China sees a 50 percent drop in mooncakes sold and threatened to blacklist western brands not using Xinjiang cotton, starting with Calvin Klein. The reasons are partly economic and partly health consumer attitude related as mooncakes are very calorie rich.

    DJ Nigo collaborated with Nike
    Nike

    As Nike lost its CEO, the settlement of a lawsuit between Nike and A Bathing Ape allowed the sports apparel brand to collaborate with BAPE founder and current Kenzo artistic director Nigo.

    Nike x Nigo collaboration
    Nike

    Quote of the month

    The biggest fallacy in marketing is that consumers want more choice, they don’t, they want more confidence in the choice that they make – Professor Scott Galloway on his podcast The Prof G Pod (September 18, 2024).

    Media

    Authorities in the US issued an indictment against Tenet Media for work carried out for state media company Russia Today. US government goes to court with regards Google’s ad tech business.

    Meanwhile GBNews owner Paul Marshall bought The Spectator for a reputed £100 million. The Observer was put up for sale.

    The Fabulous Wonder Twins in "If It Makes You Happy" by Sheryl Crow

    Gracenote’s provided ‘pop-up video’ type trivia for large video platforms. These kind of pop-up facts and reactions are more commonly used on Asian TV programmes in the likes of Japan and South Korea. Hoonigan, the automotive parts, lifestyle and media brand founded by Ken Block filed for bankruptcy with over $1.2 billion in debt due to over-expansion.

    Online

    Twitter still banned in Brazil, fined $900,000 per day by Brazilian courts. TikTok went to court to try and prevent a ban of the platform in the US.

    Other news

    Loewe muse and star of stage and screen Maggie Smith died at the age of 89.

    Technology

    Generative AI company Anthropic launched Claude for Enterprise; which supports enterprise features like SSO (user single sign-on). In what was believed to be a supply chain attack, thousands of pagers and walkie-talkie handsets used across Lebanon and Syria detonated at the same time. Israel was considered the likely culprit.

    Meta Orion AR glasses prototype
    Meta

    Meta demonstrated their Orion prototype AR glasses. Apple updated its smartphone, smartwatch and earbuds product lines. It also updated its operating systems across its TV set-top box range, Mac computers, head sets, mobile devices, tablets and smartwatches. Further personnel departures at Open.AI and consolidation of power within the organisation.

    How September 2024 memed?

    Joy

    Kamala Harris

    Maja Pawinska Sims wrote for Provoke Media about how the US presidential race, to Charli XCX and Taylor Swift had been using the power of joy strategically in terms of their influence campaigns. I recommend going to the article and giving it a read.

    October 2024

    October continued with the damp 2024 feel, with remnants of a hurricane coming across the Atlantic and drenching the country. The UK launches its industrial policy: Invest 2035: the UK’s modern industrial strategy. Hong Kong’s single use plastic ban comes into force.

    Storm Ashley

    Storm Ashley battered the Atlantic coastline of Europe, reaching the west of Ireland first. It trended as a hashtag trended across social media platforms.

    Luxury

    Rolex opens first wholly-owned store in China. This follows a year on from the Bucherer acquisition. Watches of Switzerland purchased Hodinkee, which explained why the watch publisher withdrew its retail offering. On Running launches collection with Loewe – the Cloudtilt collection.

    Louis Vuitton

    LVMH announced poor financial results and uncertain outlook. This was for a few reasons: China’s economic outlook, the strength of the Japanese yen vs. the Chinese yuan. Middle class financial health had declined from 2020 highs.

    2024 marked a 12% drop in sales for the Swiss watch industry. Into this change, Patek Philippe launched their first new range of watches in 25 years. The Cubitus was designed to reach a new generation of watch wearers. It’s a divisive design, GQ collected the positive takes, others like pre-owned watch dealer BQ Watches were less enthusiastic.

    Godfather of streetwear Shawn Stüssy dropped his first collection under his S/Double moniker in a decade. Stüssy had announced his return in July. This first collection was Australia and New Zealand only, done in association with the Hill Brothers who are behind Globe.

    Media

    Meta allows brands to shut down comments on ads. Reuters introduced paid online consumer subscription. WPP warned markets over economic uncertainty going forwards.

    Online

    Twitter allowed in Brazil again, after it paid its fines and blocked banned accounts; Elon Musk also had spent time cosying up to the Russian government. Dutch police arrest people behind Bohemia and Cannabia dark web marketplaces. Roblox alleged to have inflated metrics and become a ‘pedophile hellscape‘ for children. Meanwhile, the UK prosecuted its first person for using generative AI to create child pornography.

    The Internet Archive’s ‘Wayback Machine’ was hacked, responsibility claimed by pro-Palestinian hacktivist group. Content delivery network Cloudflare breaks RSS for many sites across the web. London online car service Addison Lee gets bought and plans to expand to other cities including Liverpool. YouTube rolled out a controllable playback speed across videos. Rather than picking from a number of predefined speeds you now can speed up or slow down using a slider.

    Technology

    Apple made a ‘subtle‘ change to the iPhone’s contact-sharing permissions that make it hard for address book based growth hacking of apps – while still facilitating usage, but at a slower pace. IronNet which was founded by Pentagon veterans as an enterprise security firm filed for bankruptcy. Chinese scientists reportedly used a D-Wave quantum computer to crack AES and RSA and published a paper on it. Amazon refreshed its Kindle range. Apple Intelligence launched but failed to impress partly due to a more intentional, integrated approach and general bugginess.

    How did October 2024 meme?

    Donald Trump
    Anxiety and glee respectively greeted razor fine margins between both Republican and Democrat presidential candidates in the final weeks before the election. There was the bizarro headlines to contend with as well. It all made grimly compelling watching, rather like the Dickie Davis-narrated Mega Crash series of motor racing accidents compilation VHS tapes.

    November 2024

    October ended with an uncharacteristically late storm (Super Typhoon Kong-rey) hit Taiwan causing hundreds of injuries. November started cool and dry, though you could cut the air like butter with the tension surrounding the US election and Rachel Reeves’ first budget. Collin’s Dictionary made ‘brat‘ one of its words of the year killing off the summertime meme. Donald Trump had a decisive win in the US presidential election. Speculation started on what a Trump president would mean across all policy, economic and social areas.

    Luxury

    Loro Piana took over Harrods windows for the Christmas shopping season with its workshop of wonders.

    Marketing

    Broke Ad School closes their website Instagram and LinkedIn presence. Jaguar rebrands, gets slated in The Guardian. I desperately tried to ignore the debate around it. Bayer announced a big single customer view project with Salesforce.com and Alibaba Cloud.

    Media

    The Vatican launches its manga style mascot, designed on their behalf by Tokidoki. Hello Kitty turned 50. Christmas advertising spend rose 7.8% from 2023. The Onion bought InfoWars – the media outlet of Alex Jones. BlueSky saw a boost as Twitter faced an exodus of high profile users. Sony made a bid for Kadokawa Corporation. Kadokawa publishes manga including the Gundam series, owns the BookWalker platform – a kind of Kindle store for manga, computer and gaming magazines, anime films and TV series, record label, role-playing table top games and computer games including Elden Ring.

    At the end of the month, two things showed a difficult future for the UK media industry. A UK parliament report reflected on both local and national news media futures. UK TV programme exports dropped slightly in 2024 by 2%.

    Online

    Amazon launched a sub-$20 offering called Amazon Haul to compete with Temu and Shein, in plenty of time for Black Friday and Cyber Monday. It allowed free product returns. Ted Baker returns as an online store. Which? launches a class action suit against Apple with regards to iCloud storage options.

    In a sign of a weak economy, John Lewis partnered with Klarna.

    Other news

    2014 Global Citizen Awards

    Record producer Quincy Jones died. Typhoon Toraji prompted a T8 warning (gale force winds and very heavy rain) in Hong Kong, later lowered to T3 (equivalent to a UK amber weather warning for rain). It historically has been unheard of to see a typhoon this late in the year, typhoon season is typically in July, August and September. In the UK, storm Bert lashed the country with uncharacteristically warm weather, high winds and torrential rain.

    A Hong Kong court sentenced 45 former opposition politicians to up to ten years in prison. The heaviest sentence was given to Benny Tai. Tai is a former associate professor of law at the University of Hong Kong and the most prominent thinker. Tai used his expertise in constitutional law to help the Occupy Central sit-in, 2016 Legislative election and the 2019 district council election upsets.

    Ireland goes to the polls, given its proportional representation system, the vote counting (and recounting) took a while.

    Technology

    Amazon’s assistant Alexa turned 10 years old. Long time technology journalist Om Malik wrote about the decline in rate of growth for the internet. ChatGPT turns two.

    December 2024

    It was a damp start to December. The Irish general election results were slowly trickling out and thankfully the Irish electorate rejected some of the far right candidates.

    Business

    Novo Nordisk announced trial results for its latest weight management treatment CagriSema, the share price dropped significantly. To add insult to injury rival Eli Lilly were allowed to use their rival weight management product to treat sleep apnea by US regulators. Unilever abandons its pioneer position in sustainability, mirroring the thinking in Nick Asbury’s The Road to Hell.

    Luxury

    Jaguar unveiled its new direction in Miami.

    Media

    The Guardian agrees the sale of its Sunday newspaper The Observer to Tortoise Media. Apple+ TV celebrated its 5th anniversary. Taylor Swift’s Eras tour which had ran through much of 2023 + 2024, finally finished. The 149 shows grossed $2 billion in ticket sales. Group M announced that global media spending for 2024 past $1 trillion – over half of it going to technology platforms.

    Marketing

    McDonalds brought back its McRib burger, complete with a Christmas themed advertisement and jingle. For the UK’s main Christmas ads, I put them all together here. IPG acquired by Omnicom in deal announced. Expected to go through in the second half of 2025.

    Online

    Foursquare shut down its City Guide app, it looked like they will be merging some of its features into their Swarm app instead of you having to use two apps. The revised Swarm app is due to appear sometime in 2025.

    renren 'upgrade' notice December 2, 2024

    Chinese social network RenRen went offline. A notice on their site dated December 2, 2024 talked about a fundamental upgrade, comparing the existing service to a petrol car and the forthcoming new service to an electric vehicle (literally translated new energy vehicle – which covers electric vehicles, plug-in hybrids etc).

    人人网服务升级公告
    亲爱的人人网用户们, 感谢您一直以来的陪伴与支持!我们想告诉您,人人网正在进 行一次“换车”升级—一就像您的燃油车开了多年,也想试试
    新能源车一样。 在这期间,您在人人网上的所有数据都得到了严格的保护,确 保您的个人信息和隐私安全不受任何威胁。您的数据安全,对
    我们来说至关重要。 请耐心等待我们的“新车”上路,届时您将享受到更加稳定、
    安全、丰富的社交体验,让我们共同期待人人网的全新启程!

    Data showed Amazon had biggest Black Friday takings ever. Krispy Kreme got their online ordering system hacked. The hack had a material effect on Krispy Kreme’s financial results.

    Pre-owned online retailer musicMagpie was acquired by the AO Group.

    Other news

    F 242 Blackout tour

    I got to see Front 242 perform their last show in the UK at the Electric Ballroom in Camden. The Black Out Tour was their last tour. After this tour, they retired. South Korean president Yoon declares martial law and then cancels the declaration of martial law hours later. The Assad regime ruling Syria collapses in the space of a week.

    Technology

    Pat Gelsinger abruptly retired as CEO of Intel.

    How did 2024 meme?

    Pharmacist Holding a Box of Ozempic

    Ozempic face, the thinner but aged look of the wealthy who have managed to lose weight rapidly with the help of semaglutide injections given for aesthetic rather than medical reasons.

    To bring you up to speed, The Economist did a really good podcast about this category of drugs.

    Given that I worked on Wegovy, the planner in me feels a little disappointed that we didn’t get Wegovy to verb. Ozempic instead stole brand gold mainly down to Novo Nordisk suffering from ‘unprecedented demand’ at US launch until now. At the end of May, semaglutide had its own episode of South Park.

    The money quote from Cartman:

    “Rich people get Ozempic, poor people get body positivity”

    South Park: The End of Obesity

    On June 10th, 2024 Novo Nordisk CEO Lars Fruergaard Jørgensen went on Bloomberg Television to explain that they haven’t created, nor are they responsible for the social media hype surrounding semaglutide medications.

    Later that month it even appeared on the runway at Berlin fashion week. At least Ozempic face is better than ‘skinny jab‘.

    The sales pitch.

    I am now taking bookings for strategic engagements from January 2025 onwards; or discussions on permanent roles. Contact me here.

    More on what I have done here.

    bit.ly_gedstrategy

  • End of culture

    This post on the end of culture as inspired by a presentation. Pip Bingemann of Springboards.ai presented at Cannes in Cairns – a marketing festival for Australians who wouldn’t be able to go to the Cannes Festival of Advertising. Pip’s presentation touched with things I had seen about the end of culture and had some interesting points within it. I didn’t agree with a lot of Pip said, some of it was down to nuance, but appreciated the journey that it took.

    I have built the main headers around Pip’s slides, strap in for the end of culture.

    What’s wrong with advertising?

    Bingemann’s presentation as in praise of the disruption that (generative) AI was bringing. The thesis he put forward was that ‘machines’ had already messed up the advertising and media industries. 

    • Advertising became self-service in nature. 
    • There had been a move in online media to relevance over distinctiveness
    • We became slaves to numbers

    Let’s look at those elements first. 

    Advertising became self-service in nature

    Like the technological disruption of banking in the past with: 

    • Postal banking
    • Automatic teller machines
    • Telephone banking 
    • Online banking 

    Meta and Google’s advertising platform democratised media buying. Years ago a guy I have lost touch with used to be a manager at a McDonald’s branch in the west end of London. 

    Before cellphones became commonplace he had a side hustle. He used the restaurant telephone to phone up the newspapers, to book small ads. The newspapers had advertising sales teams, that he would speak to. He did it once for a friend and then word got around. Eventually, he was calling for businesses across Soho. Premium line suppliers, porn publishers and adult mail order catalogue companies. Eventually they needed the ads to be designed. This work was done alongside creating porn DVD covers and other marketing material. 

    Ovid was a pimp

    He built a small successful agency off the back of it based in Soho. The agency remained in Soho until it was priced out by the fund management firms who moved in. Lots of other small businesses did the same for their plumbing business or hair salon. Their adverts would run in local newspapers across the country. 

    newspaper ad...

    For more sophisticated ads like large print ads, television or cinema advertising; help was needed. This help got the ad ready, made sure that the publication received the artwork on time and in a format that they could use. They made sure that the artwork was presented in the manner agreed. With the likes of television, the advert might have to go through regulatory approval prior to publication. 

    If you were a larger brand with a national or international campaign, further help was needed in pre-testing and orchestration. Expertise might be needed to access more regulated markets while remaining on the right side of the law. 

    Technology allowed newspaper type adverts to be easily accessed by both agencies and brands. 

    TLDR: Advertising has been self-serving for decades, but I will grant that online allowed more sophisticated formats such as videos, colour photos and carousels. AND regulation has been slower to police advertising online, for instance YouTube ads don’t get the scrutiny that TV ads get.

    Relevance over distinctiveness and slaves to numbers

    The move to relevance over distinctiveness in online media was down to where online media was in the customer journey. It was (and for the most part still is at the bottom of the funnel).

    Relevance made sense, particularly in search advertising. The first online adverts such as Craigslist classified and display ads were conceptually similar to their equivalents in the back pages of newspaper advertising. Newspaper ads were served in sections: cars for sale, homes for sale, local businesses, cinema listings, vets or pharmacies with a late closing time.

    Search and many banner ad campaigns for that matter are about the last step (hopefully) before purchase. In the old pre-internet world, they would be direct mail or the direct response adverts that used to appear in magazines or the special offers beloved of shopper marketing.

    Vintage 1960s Columbia Record Club Ad Double Page Advertisement 1962

    Distinctiveness appeared further up in the funnel building long term memory models through brand building. It was TV advertising, radio jingles, magazine print advertising and billboards that evoked emotion and still evoke nostalgia decades later.

    Silk Cut cigarette ad
    Saatchi & Saatchi for Gallaher

    I would argue that the issue is less about relevance at the expense of distinctiveness, instead it’s about short-termist mindsets facilitated by numbers. The media industry is about to double down on this error, with initiatives like the European Programmatic TV initiative. And so I can empathise with Pip’s last point about becoming slaves to numbers. It’s ironic that the PowerPoint-friendly charts used by Google search advertising to explaining its value for marketers took off and drove marketing thinking.

    Technology marketing itself came from broken origins and still is basically sales strategies by another name. A good deal of what data is created is based on what technology companies can see; rather than what marketers need to measure to get the balance between long term and short term marketing needs.

    This MIGHT BE about to change if marketing expert Mark Ritson is to be believed. He posits that marketing technology start-up Evidenza.AI will provide business-to-business marketers with the kind of insight previously driven by market research, but much faster. From then on he sees it doing a better job at communications and media strategy. I am trying to keep an open mind on this at the moment.

    TLDR: Advertising hasn’t become about relevance at the expense of distinctiveness, but instead about short-term at the expense of long-term marketing effects; partly down to technologists having a poor understanding of marketing.

    Technology outputs data which marketers paid an inordinate amount of attention to; reinforcing the short term bias. Machine learning techniques now becoming available might turn this around by providing better marketing insight.

    Machine learning tends towards the mean

    Pip’s presentation went on asserting that machine learning tends towards the mean. Generative AI synthesises content based on what has already been done, which why Pip assumes that everything tends towards the mean. But that depends on how one uses these tools that we’ve been given.

    As a strategist, I have used generative AI to knock out too obvious propositions, so I give the creative teams something interesting to work with in the creation of distinctive assets.

    Apparently creative teams have been taking a similar approach in terms of ideation.

    One thing I’ve heard more than once recently is how creative teams are using LLMs for brainstorms. But not quite how you’d expect… Because these algorithms answer back with the most likely predicted outcomes based on available data, you get the mean. The average. In creative terms that means the well worn “cliches”. So when starting a brainstorm or ideation session, quizzing the LLMs leads to a list of suggestions of what creative teams are generally most likely to suggest. At which point the team knows what NOT to do. The already well trodden ground. The list of the obvious. That also somehow gives a wonderfully smug angle on the use of AI in the pursuit of original work.

    Nic Roope on LinkedIn

    TLDR: generative AI will tend towards the mean, BUT that can be used creatively.

    Agencies and clients screwed advertising

    Pip’s slides don’t necessarily dig into the reasons why this happened. But I can put together some hypotheses and provide evidence that may indicate their validity or lack of it.

    Clientside factors

    • Shareholder value ethos – Shareholder value the way we understand it now can be traced back to the 1960s. While Milton Friedman popularised it in an essay A Friedman Doctrine: The Social Responsibility of Business Is to Increase Its Profits, the idea had surfaced years earlier in an opinion editorial published in Fortune magazine. The so-called Friedman doctrine became a lode star for investors and boards including the likes of ‘Neutron’ Jack Welch at General Electric. While this thinking still dominates the tyranny of the quarterly numbers that CEOs of publicly traded companies operate under; it is not the only perspective in the c-suite.
    • The financialisation of businesses – related to the Friedman doctrine, businesses became increasingly financialised thinking about short term financial decisions. A classic example of this is how post-regulation, legacy airlines in the US have been managed. Another example is Brazil’s private equity firm 3G Capital who managed to destroy billions of dollars in shareholder value with marketing cuts. Financialisation has definitely had an impact, but it varies from company to company. We also see it showing up on the agency side, with the move to using more freelance staff and burning out those staff that they do have. They have a fig leaf of mental health care in their talent acquisition literature, but it’s largely BS.
    • What gets measured gets done – Google advertising’s success was as much down to it being easy to tell a story about the marketing spend conducted on the platform as it was about effectiveness. The dashboards lended themselves to being easily reproduced in PowerPoint and spoke in the universal c-suite language of line graphs and pie charts. This was really important for Google to survive and thrive in the post dot com bust and the 2008 recession.
    • Marketing literacy – since before I have gone to college the c-suite was largely marketing illiterate. It doesn’t matter if they are a self-starting boy or girl made good, or minted from an Ivy League business school with an MBA. I have worked with both and they had a similar marketing knowledge level, the only thing that varied was the level of self confidence despite this gap. Neither do the management consultants that they may employ. Which is the reason why the team at 3G Capital were surprised when they cut marketing costs and destroyed brand and shareholder value.
    • Procurement – practices to systemise purchasing and avoid issues like nepotism and corruption have introduced a muscular procurement function who know the price of everything and the value of nothing. Margins across disciplines have been squeezed to breaking point. This has led to a decline in entertainment and side benefits, my LinkedIn feed had advertising folk explaining that the cost of attending the Cannes Festival of Advertising was likely paid through budget cuts in: training, subscriptions for tools and publications and even head count. We might not have had an end of culture, but this is no longer the industry portrayed in Mad Men.

    Agencyside factors

    • Splitting creative and media – prior to the mid-1970s creative and media buying were two departments in the one advertising agency. That allowed the free flow of research between the departments and the creative use of context as well as content. It also meant that margins had to support two management teams. Secondly, the options to best defend margins was in the media-buying side of the house, depending on how integrated into the media technology stack the the media buying agency became.
    • Change in north star from FMCG to technology companies – the rise of the internet completely changed the nature of marketing. Prior to the internet becoming mainstream, having FMCG experience as a marketer helped your career. In the early 2000s, Google, Yahoo! and later Facebook became the brands marketers wanted on your CV. The difference was that FMCG brands had subscriptions to the likes of the Ehrensberg-Bass Institute for Marketing Science. Yet American and British academia saw that most thinking from even the most prestigious schools can be boiled down to being the considered common sense opinion of tenured professors like David A. Aaker and Philip Kotler. Kotler was reportedly not interested in engaging with marketing science as consumer behaviour was too complex and difficult to model.
    • Relative recent awareness of marketing science. For reasons that I don’t fully understand marketing science is both old and a new phenomenon. The late Andrew Ehrensberg originally founded his Centre for Research in Marketing in the early 1990s and had been turning out marketing science academic papers for decades before that. Ehrensberg eventually moved to His work on the myth of ‘heavy consumers‘ and polygamous brand buying (smaller brands suffering a double jeopardy of fewer people purchasing them, and those that did purchase them, did so less often) was done back in the 1950s for Attwood Consumer Panel (would eventually become part of TNS). Some agency strategists knew about Ehrenberg, such as Stephen King of JWT. Some of this thinking was likely hidden by the decline of market research projects in agencies and the split between media buying and creative. In addition, Andrew Ehrenberg theorised why marketing science had a low adoption outside his center’s FMCG clients, which also encapsulated the gatekeeper role American academics played in overall mainstream academic adoption:

    I also realised slowly that our kind of theorising – which at base describes and explains already-established and generalised empirical discoveries and which thus post-dicts them – was anathema to many American academic marketing colleagues. They espoused much more ambitious and complex-looking econometric procedures which never worked in practice, with the recent citation for a Nobel typically not referring to any established empirical patterns

    My Research in Marketing : How It Happened by Andrew Ehrenberg
    • Channels – I don’t know who thought that a video view could be just a couple of seconds, but digital platforms benefited from it. Some of the wisdom from this years Cannes Festival of Creativity was that short adverts don’t work that well as they fail to build memory structures. Somehow agencies, platforms and brands suspended belief to develop marketing campaigns that only made sense in 1980s cyberpunk fiction like Max Headroom. Even at Cannes, platforms like Tiktok believed that they operate like, and a have similar impact to a TV advert…
    • Research – like most strategists I have found that I am often operating with less qualitative research than I would like. One of the biggest programmes I managed to work on the research for was the global launch of a now famous weight management product. Even then we didn’t do enough interviews around the world to understand cultural nuances in play. I remember reading about strategists in the 1970s spending a good deal of time listening to focus groups hosted around the country. There was a mid-week ritual of taking a drive or a train to a city or town outside London for this research. Social listening has been touted as a possible research for product tracking and can be a useful source of consumer soundbites sometimes.
    • Testing – hand-in-hand with a decline in research has been a decline in types of testing. Content still gets tested, but brands and agencies didn’t test channels to the same degree. Which is why we’ve had short form ad formats for years, yet the knowledge that they’re not as good at building memory structures doesn’t seem to be embedding into clients and agency teams.

    OK, but that’s advertising, what about the end of culture?

    Pip claims that advertising is just one part of our world that has been under attack (from technology). Alex Murrell’s essay The Age of Average was cited as the source of this insight. Murrell makes his case on the common looks in car designs driven by developments in aerodynammic design over time, architecture and cityscapes, coffee shop styles, logos, book covers, video game franchises, packaging design and product design.

    Part of the reason for the architecture was Le Corbusier and his his function over form theory of design and architecture (modernism) captured in Towards a New Architecture.

    Murrell harked back to a time of distinctive cities like Victorian London. However what Murrell’s explanation overlooked was that even back in Victorian times London was becoming ‘standardised’. Chimney pots, bricks, cast-iron beams, windows and even church stained glass windows came out of catalogues. The same designs repeat over-and-over-again. The church stained glass windows went around what was then the British empire. It is a similar situation today. Buildings are made of standardised materials and design tools as we understand more about engineering.

    Technology over time allowed buildings to get taller and let in more light thanks to improvements in construction, lifts (elevators) and environmental control. Where things get interesting is when governments and societies make decisions on what they want to keep or rebuild. Shanghai has preserved only a little of the Bund and few of its hutongs. Hong Kong has so far managed to keep some examples of its composite buildings. However once you get to street level you see a distinct evolving local culture despite their apparently similar skylines.

    This mix of standardised components bought from a supply chain, improved engineering and regulation has also driven similarities in other products, such as motor cars which Murrell cited as an example. But again those similarities are more about operating at a macro-viewpoint. On closer examination, diversity in car culture and driving experiences start to build clear lines of distinctiveness.

    And the car industry for decades has indulged in badge engineering where one vehicle truly does look like another.

    Wolsley Hornet
    Wolesley Hornet
    PBWA Hammersmith and Fulham
    Austin Cooper Mini
    1975 Innocenti Mini 1300
    Innocenti Mini
    1967 Riley Elf
    Riley Elf

    The examples I used above were all based on the Austin Mini. Wolesley was a luxury brand owned by BMC at the time. Italian care manufacturer Innocenti licensed the Mini from Austin until the agreement was cancelled by British Leyland. Lastly, the Riley Elf was a slightly more expensive alternative to Wolesley, both were owned by BMC.

    General Motors were the masters of badge engineering using ‘common platforms’ as far back at 1909.

    As for the complaints about logo design, books and later the web allowed influential design motifs like Neville Brody’s work at The Face, Arena and The Guardian went around the world, collected in three volumes by Thames & Hudson. His cover designs were in Tower Records stores from New York to Tokyo. Design is an industry sensitive to global influences that you see spread around the world. A second reason for the simplification and flattening of logos is the world that we now live in. Before the web logos only existed in the physical world. Digital brings common requirements:

    • Works in a website template that can be used globally.
    • Works in email headers and footers.
    • Works in a favicon and in a mobile app button.

    One interesting point came out when Murrell (and Bingemann) looked at media where there was a coalescence of homage images and content based around a success. But these in turn created their own genres like the sweary covers on self-help books. How is this marking a low point in culture was beyond me.

    I thought of genres like the European ‘gallo’ films or the European takes on the western films of which spaghetti westerns are the most well known. A lot of the films were dreadful. In the case of European westerns many of them borrowed a characters name from more successful films. So you saw ‘apparent’ franchises around ‘Ringo’, ‘Django’ and ‘Sartana’.

    Western saloon, cinema studio tabernas (Almeria)

    (Film director Alex Cox published one of the best works on the Italian western film genre 10,000 ways to die. It’s based on his university thesis and a fascinating read, if you choose to jump down that rabbit hole.)

    You had a similar experience in the Asian martial arts film industry with countless variations on the the star name Bruce Lee, as the industry coped with the loss of most famous star.

    To quote Sturgeon’s revelation:

    90 percent of anything is crap.

    This doesn’t mark the end of culture, but the manufacture of culture. What’s good or great is then strained through the filter of time and changing social attitudes.

    As for the cinematic superhero cul-de-sac, there are clear parallels with the end of the western and the New Hollywood movement. This time its distribution in the driving seat rather than a new generation of directors. Like the New Hollywood movement there will be both successes and car crashes along the way and I am largely excited by it.

    Bingemann also cites Adam Mastroianni’s essay Pop Culture Has Become an Oligopoly. Mastroianni hits on what is called a long tail. In scale-free networks with preferential attachments, power law distributions are created, because some nodes are more connected than others – so Taylor Swift will sell more because of the size of fan base she has grown over time. They have been studied since at least 1946 and Benoit Mandelbrot who is better known for his work on fractals was one of the main researchers. Wired magazine touched on it in 1998 when it published The Encyclopaedia of the New Economy written by John Browning and Spencer Reiss and the influence showed up in Wired contributor Kevin Kelly’s work New Rules for the New Economy. So one can guess that the ideas were being thrown around then.

    Wired editor Chris Anderson wrote about it in a magazine article for Wired in October 2004, and turned it into a book. Algorithms in online services create bubbles and rabbit holes in different areas and surface media winners like MrBeast. But again culture has thrived despite of popular culture out of sight of the general public for decades will continue to do so. Examples include Northern Soul, punk, the Chicago house music scene, UK garage, grime, drill and donk, the long tail does not mark an end of culture.

    TL:DR: Could the current culture eco-system be better? Yes, absolutely. But it isn’t broken in the way and extent that Bingemann believes. We definitely aren’t at the end of culture and it doesn’t need to be ‘saved’ by generative AI.

    So what can AI do?

    Bingemann believed that generative AI offers society a way out of the end of culture. So presumably it offers a way to enhance and create culture. He believes that it creates, I would finesse this a bit to say that it emulates, synthesises and combines elements to meet consumer instructions – since it is the sum of its training data.

    Ironically, Bingemann bases his thesis on how surreal and abstract art represented the ‘death of traditional art’ and reinvented the meaning of art and unleashed a large amount of creativity. Traditional art didn’t die per se, there are still several artists selling realistic pieces including painting and sculptures alongside the ‘new art’ movements.

    Generative AI puts tools in the hands of creatives that previously would have meant a lot of work. In the same way that desktop publishing and Photoshop reduced the cut-and-past compositing on layers of glass panels which were then photographed and image retouching done by hand in the past.

    In advertising Bingemann sees five opportunities enabled by generative AI:

    • Move to value-based pricing (presumably based on substantially reduced cost of production). It’s what Huge tried to do with their pivot and what thinkers like Michael Farmer have been recommended. We’ll see what happens when this aspiration meets client procurement teams. I hope Bingemann is right.
    • Design AI around people. So far the progress has been mixed around this. We have been some companies like Klarna using ‘good enough’ generative AI to automate jobs out of existence. Adobe have taken more of a creative enablement approach. Based on my experience working on ads in the past with collaged backdrops and photoshoots for global campaigns, this could save tens of hours or more in art working.
    • Embrace the newcomers. Just like social and digital before it, when we had new agencies like Crayon, AKQA and Poke; Bingemann thinks that generative AI is likely to bring new businesses to the advertising eco-system.
    • Spend 10x more effort developing the next generation. Given that the advertising industry manages to continually churn experienced people out of the industry and no one was found to have retired last year from the industry according to the IPA – this is going to be a tall order. It would make more sense if AI was used to make advertising more representative.
    • Unite. Clients, agencies and technology. It’s a nice aspiration, but when clients are looking for good enough and efficient content, agencies looking for a margin and trying to put effectiveness in there as well and technology companies trying hold back their natural instinct to suck all the value to themselves, it will be a hard feat to achieve.

    Bingemann argues that this is necessary for advertising, but also for creativity and considers advertising’s role to break culture rather than just reflect it. Culture and creativity will exist without advertising. Even during the Soviet Union, there was still creativity, art and culture – both mainstream and underground.

    A Final Thought To Leave You On

    GZero Media quoting Douglas Rushkoff (of Media Virus fame) on what generative AI means for culture moving forward.

    While its not the end of culture as we know it, Springboard.ai are putting out some interesting tools that I could see competing with the likes of Julian Cole, Mark Pollard and others who are filling the ‘how to strategy’ gap for brand planners.

    More related content can be found here.

    More information

    The ‘Pernicious Nonsense’ Of Maximizing Shareholder Value | Forbes.

    Customer Value, Shareholder Wealth, Community Wellbeing: A Roadmap for Companies and Investors by Denis Kilroy and Marvin Schneider

    CIA appoints ex-MindShare chief de Pear | MarketingWeek

    Vici – The evolution of display advertising

    Profit squeeze for ad agencies | MarketingWeek

    3G Capital discovers the limits of cost-cutting and debt | The Economist

    My Research in Marketing : How It Happened by Andrew Ehrenberg

    Creative Impact Unpacked: 11 effectiveness trends from Cannes Lions 2024 | WARC

    The Age of Average by Alex Murrell

    Modern Man: The Life of Le Corbusier, Architect of Tomorrow by Anthony Flint.

    10,000 ways to die by Alex Cox.

    The New Hollywood: From Bonnie and Clyde to Star Wars by Peter Kramer.

    Pop Culture Has Become an Oligopoly | Experimental History.

    New Rules for the New Economy by Kevin Kelly.

    The Long Tail: How Endless Choice is Creating Unlimited Demand by Chris Anderson.

    AI and creativity | renaissance chambara.

  • Bookshelf

    Why is there a page called Bookshelf?

    I’ve read a good number of books, but only a subset remain on my bookshelf. For instance, I love graphic novels, but I pass them on to friends. They entertain, but in general they don’t stay on the bookshelf. When I say bookshelf that’s probably inaccurate for a few reasons.

    Some of the older books remain in crates at my parents house from my move to Hong Kong, but are still valued. I’ve managed to repurchase some of these again by accident. Others that I tend to use for work are in the bookcase in my living room, so bookshelves rather than a bookshelf. I tried using ebooks. That was fine or entertainment, but for some reason I didn’t retain any of the content on this electronic bookshelf.

    I’ll be updating this bookshelf page over time, so think of it as a living document. (Last updated July 4, 2024).

    Behaviour change

    Behaviour change is important to so many things now: design, new product development, advertising and service provision. This is why it has become a major part of my bookshelf.

    Deep Simplicity: Chaos Complexity and the Emergence of Life by John Gribbin I first came across Deep Simplicity from the interest in chaos theory and fractals. This book is one of a number of popular science books which have sold well, providing the answers to big questions for a society that has never been more divorced from both science and religion. I revisited Deep Simplicity because the book shows how small simple rules can develop into complex behaviour. This complex behaviour then provides an analogue to understand the `unforeseen consequences’ that drive a lot of things that currently interest me like behavioural economics. I am careful not to take the conclusions too far as I still believe in free will. Models only work at scale.

    Persuasive Technology: Using Computers to Change What We Think and Do by B.J. Fogg. Fogg’s book and foundational work on captology is the foundation for a lot of modern products from apps you can’t put down to health tech. I recently re-read it and wrote my take on it here.

    Tiny Habits by B.J. Fogg – Fogg wrote this consumer-friendly book on personal behaviour change.

    China

    East and Southeast Asia went from being the poorest region of the world in the immediate aftermath of world war 2, to the most dynamic region today. China and the overseas Chinese community is a key piece in this puzzle. China makes up a good chunk of my bookshelf.

    Age of Ambition: Chasing Fortune, Truth and Faith in the New China by Evan Osnos. Osnos does a good job of catching the ambition of the Chinese people. If the book has a flaw, it is in its lack of real understanding of Premier Xi Jingping and his administration.

    Hidden Hand by Clive Hamilton and Mareike Ohlberg. Both of them are academics. Their book highlights how China is influencing and reshaping the world outside China. Through engagement with elites, multilateral bodies and its own diaspora with focus and scale. I reviewed it in more depth here.

    What Chinese Want by Tom Doctoroff. From 1994 to 2016 Doctoroff worked for J Walter Thompson as a client services lead covering Greater China markets. Initially he was based in Hong Kong and then he moved to Shanghai. What Chinese Want is a distillation of everything Doctoroff learned delivering work in China for the likes of Kraft and Kimberley Clark. Firstly, few people get that opportunity immerse themselves in a market, with one agency in the way that Doctoroff managed to do. Secondly, Doctoroff manages to articulate his thoughts in knowledge in a manner that I would expect from a senior strategist; rather than someone from the client services side of the business. I got this book soon after I started working in Hong Kong and it served me really during my time in China and afterwards when I worked on Huawei’s then fast-growing smartphone business.

    Chinese Antitrust Exceptionalism by Angela Zhang sounds exceptionally dry to the uninitiated. But if like me, you’ve worked on brands like Qualcomm, Huawei or GSK you realise how much of an impact China’s regulatory environment can have on your client’s success. Zhang breaks down the history of China’s antitrust regulatory environment, how it works within China’s power structures and how it differs from the US model. What becomes apparent is that Chinese power isn’t monolithic and that China is weaponising antitrust legislation for strategic and policy goals rather than consumer benefit. It is important for everything from technology to the millions of COVID deaths that happened in China due to a lack of effective vaccines. Zhang’s book won awards when it first came out in 2021, and is still valuable now given the relatively static US-China policy views.

    Design

    Design isn’t just making a thing. But an expression of an idea, a philosophy and an embodiment of quality. Poor design indicates poor thinking, a flawed or lack of philosophy behind the product and goes hand in hand with poor quality. With that in mind, I have always thought that the thinking behind design is similar to the thinking behind strategy. And sometimes we just need nice things around us. That’s why design gets a place on my bookshelf.

    8vo On the Outside by Mark Holt and Hamish Muir – 8vo was one of the trendsetting graphic design outfits of the 80s and 1990s. They did a lot of pioneering work on information design pre-internet. If you were an early Orange mobile phone customer – they designed your bill. If you read magazines like iD or other publications that took iD as their role model, then the typography usually owes a debt to 8vo. Both the work the minutiae of running an agency are fascinating.

    Creating a brand identity by Catherine Slade-Brooking – although its orientated towards graphic designers this is an excellent guide to process, methodology and avoiding pitfalls in crafting a brand identity.

    Less and More: The Design Ethos of Dieter Rams edited by Klaus Klemp and Keiko Ueki-Polet. One of the best works cataloguing the work of Dieter Rams. Rams philosophy of good design does a lot to inform us of what good strategy should exhibit

    My Rugged 211 by Minoru Onozato. I consider curation to be a type of design. Onozato-san was the founder and long-time editor of Japanese style magazine Free & Easy. Free & Easy also extended itself into retail. Its impact on the menswear fashion world was as big as Vogue was for womenswear. All of it came from his very particular vision on ‘rugged’ items. A mix of new and vintage things that reflected quality and items imbued with stories. The 211 came from Onozato’s constant pruning and refining of his collection. When he got above 211 items, the excess would be sold or given away. More on the book here. Free & Easy has closed down, but its spirit lives on in HailMary – a magazine set up by many of the editorial staff.

    teamLab Continuity edited by Kari G Oen and Clare Jacobson – teamLab is a a Japanese collective that have been going since 2001, they’re work crosses boundaries between art and design. The digital world and the real world. Art often informs the future that we create, which is why I think teamLab’s work is so important.

    The Pentagram Papers. Pentagram is a UK-based design agency. They periodically published brochures covering esoteric subjects as a form of inspirational materials. The brochures were collated in this handy volume.

    Type Matters by Jim Williams. Typography is under examined in digital design projects. Veteran graphic designer put together an accessible syllabus on typography and graphic design in its purest sense. More here.

    Economics / Finance

    Panic! edited by Michael Lewis. Michael Lewis became famous when he wrote an account of his career in investment banking in Liar’s Poker. His career overlapped with the 1987 financial crash. Since then he has been a writer who has documented key turns in the economy. Because of this background Lewis was the ideal person to curate a history of financial crisis from contemporary accounts at the time. Panic! covers the 1987 financial crash, the 1998 debt crisis, the dot com bubble, and the subprime mortgage crisis of 2007/8. I read the book in short bursts mainly due to asks on my time, rather than the nature of the book. I didn’t put this in the technology and economics sub-section of this bookshelf because it covered more than technology related market events. But the publication of Pegasus Research’s iconic quantitative research on ‘burn rates’ in March 2000 on dot.com company burn rates makes it highly relevant to revisit when we are in hype cycles such as those surrounding health tech, fintech, crypto and more – if for no other reason than pointing out the folly of trying to pick winners in hype-driven public markets with a high degree of opacity.

    Engineering

    In an Irish household up until the present you might have come across the phrase ‘calling’. As in ‘Bridget’s older brother had a calling to become a priest’. My Dad’s calling is as an engineer. He grew up as the middle son on a small farm in the west of Ireland. He was never going to inherit the farm. As a small child he took an interest in things, making his own cart to help with chores and tinkering with things to get them working. He never went to university but instead served a four-year apprenticeship working for what was the Irish Sugar Company. He was servicing and making machinery out of parts that they had to hand, and manufactured in their own machine shop. This weird mix of devices were used in an experimental farm in peat land exhausted from harvesting by Bord na Móna. He got seriously ill as a travelling repair man for Massey Ferguson‘s range of industrial and agricultural machinery, living out of a suitcase and a Commer van, while staying in some of Ireland’s best hotels. He went on to help build ballistic missile carrying nuclear submarines, and vessels that served in the Falklands conflict. He maintained at least one car manufacturing plant, a liquid packaging plant and a paper mill during scheduled shutdown. Eventually he ended up working in plant hire.

    He fabricated fixes to various machines, the original manufacturers then paid my Dad’s boss and patented those innovations without his name appearing on the patents. He gave me an appreciation (if not the talent) for engineering whether it’s Swiss watches or power stations. My time working in the petrochemical industry was partly down to his influence.

    Modern Petroleum Technology by the Institute of Petroleum takes you through all the stages of the oil industry. From understanding the geology, right the way through to refining oil for chemical feedstocks. The engineering solutions outlined in of themselves highlight solutions to future problems that we’ll have with geothermal energy to hydrogen fuel cells. It also brings home the ubiquity of oil in our lives. Oil isn’t just about home heating oil, fuel for the car or the airplane, but the polymer covered batteries and circuit boards in the computer I type this on.

    Getting stuff out of meetings

    The Surprising Power of Liberating Structures: Simple Rules to Unleash A Culture of Innovation by Henri Lipmanowicz and Keith McCandless – think of this as a tool box for moving forward workshops, product development meetings etc.

    History

    Bomb, Book and Compass: Joseph Needham and The Great Secret of China by Simon Winchester. English academic Needham looked to preserve the history of China’s scientific and inventive accomplishments during world war 2. From his work we get a different narrative about inventions, compared to the one that you and I probably learned at school. It adds evidence to the hypothesis that innovations have their time and the inevitable progression of technology (Kevin Kelly’s technium) almost has a life of its own. More here.

    Civilisation: A Personal View by Kenneth Clark – I’ve got a lightly worn soft back edition of the book that mirrored and complemented Clark’s tale of western Europe after the fall of the Roman Empire. It is a beautiful and coherent portrayal of European history. I can also recommend the series which is available on DVD. The BBC revisited this with a portfolio of presenters in the TV series Civilisations – which felt dumbed down for a modern audience.

    Fear and Loathing: On The Campaign Trail’72 by Hunter S Thompson. Less well known than Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas or Hells Angels. Thompson embedded with the political media for Rolling Stone magazine. He talks extensively about the Democratic party primaries used to find a candidate to run against Richard Nixon. What results is a classic example of the new journalism pioneered by Tom Wolfe and Thompson. Thompson opening up the inner workings of the body politic for our own amazement and curiosity. Politics doesn’t come off well from the experience.

    Ireland by Robert Kee. My Dad bought this book for me. It was designed to give me a sense of my own history. This book was an accompaniment to Ireland – A Television History. A thirteen-part series narrated by Robert Kee. Kee’s TV series isn’t available on Blu-Ray or DVD; but if you poke around on YouTube, you may be in luck. Having the book and the show authored by Kee meant that both worked really well with each other. Despite Kee’s sterling efforts, there is a still a lack of understanding of Irish history in Britain.

    Michael Collins by Tim Pat Coogan. Collins is was founding father of modern Ireland. He died at the age of 32 and was a complex person, a polymath and military figure. His actions were subsequently studied by other countries leaders including Yatzik Shamir and Mao Zedong during their fight for change. Coogan provides a comprehensive, authoritative and independent biography of Collins.

    Six Days – How the 1967 war shaped the Middle East by Jeremy Bowen. BBC journalist Bowen, provides a well-researched complex recounting of the six-day war that shaped the geography of the modern Middle East. More here.

    The Sunday Times Investigates: Reporting That Made History – This is a collection of the biggest stories investigated by the Sunday Times over five decades of the Insights team. Each story has an introduction to the impact that the story had and would have merited a paperback book in itself. They are just a nice length to read before bed each night. There are a wide range of stories covered including the Cambridge Three spy ring focusing on Kim Philly, the Thalidomide scandal. The Thalidomide section shocked me as it demonstrated Grunenthal’s ruthlessness to cover up the scandal, foreshadowing the Sacklers and Purdue Pharma by decades. Their confirmation of the Israeli nuclear weapons programme is the real stand-out piece of reporting. The Cash for Questions sting operation of 1994 helped usher in the first Blair government as John Major’s MPs were implicated in a willingness to take bribes. This was mirrored by the FIFA investigation some 20 years later. Less impactful at the time, but just as important from a historic point of view are investigations in to how the government failed during the COVID epidemic in 2019 and investigation of SAS war crimes sounding the war on terror. The only story I consider not making the cut is their coverage of Colonel Gaddafi’s attempt to help fund the National Union of Mineworkers strike in 1984-85. I didn’t think that it proved anything significant beyond a meeting having taken place between a financier and the union. It also didn’t impact the broader narrative to sway more people to the government’s side. The book makes an interesting historical curio on my bookshelf, what I also found interesting is how the writing becomes more accessible over time. The Cambridge Three story and Thalidomide were both stories for middle brow readers.

    The Bhutto Dynasty by Owen Bennett-Jones. I knew very little about Pakistan and for that fact alone, it would have earned a place on my bookshelf. The story of the Bhutto family is a story of fierce ambition with bursts of hubris. But it is also the tale of the moghul empire of pre-Raj India, British rule and post-colonial Pakistan. More here.

    The Fifth Risk by Michael Lewis. The author of Liar’s Poker on Donald Trump and the role of government. Lewis’ book is much more than a history, it is a repudiation of neo-liberalism and the Chicago school. More here.

    The World At War by Mark Arnold-Foster – the book accompanied at TV series of the same name that featured real world accounts from people at the time still alive to remember and recall the events. The book tells the story in a balanced way, but with a definite British view point. I read this as a child and recently when I was back at my parents one Christmas.

    Management

    Good to Great by Jim Collins. Based on research conducted since the late 1980s. Collins earned his place on my bookshelf with its common sense advice backed by research.

    Marketing

    I’d put some marketing-specific recommendations for reading materials here. It pulled in books from different disciplines that would work to inspire a marketer and provide them with effective tools. There is some overlap with this page. The reality is that that I could write up a bookcase worth of marketing books at the very least rather than having them part of this metaphorical bookshelf.

    Buying In by Rob Walker. Walker focuses on what makes a brand. It touches on the product, how consumers use the product. The nature of the product of the business in terms of ‘authenticity’ and lastly the impact of marketing. More on this book.

    Consumerology by Philip Graves. Marketing psychology consultant Graves looks at the different marketer and consumer biases that can adversely affect research projects. His AFECT research criteria is a useful way to assess the relative effectiveness of a given research project for marketers. More here.

    Decoded by Phil Barden. Barden distills marketing thinking around behavioural change and consumer behaviour into an easy to digest book that is ideal for marketers at the start of their career. It works well as a primer for Phil Graves Consumerology and Sharp’s How Brands Grow. More in my review here.

    Eat Your Greens edited by Wiemer Snijders is a series of short essays from well known names in advertising creative, account planning, branding, behavioural science and marketing. Its a good light read for marketers at all experience levels. I reviewed in more depth here.

    eMarketing eXcellence by Dave Chaffey and PR Smith. Like Internet Marketing by Chaffey, this is a good primer on digital marketing for marketers. PR Smith brings his expertise in terms of environment and analysis to this work.

    How Brands Grow part 1 and part 2 by Byron Sharp is the modern marketers bible for B2C brands of various stripes. Sharp and his colleagues distill down decades of evidence-based research that has been carried out by Ehrensberg-Bass Institute of Marketing Science attached to the University of South Australia. (Reading the books gives you a sense of how marketing technology is often at odds with the task of achieving efficient and effective marketing campaigns. These tools are built and designed by engineers rather than being guided by marketing science.)

    The research institute has got a who’s who of corporate sponsors supporting their work and using their data:

    • General Mills
    • Grupo Bimbo
    • Procter & Gamble
    • Red Bull
    • Unilever

     How To Win Friends And Influence People by Dale Carnegie. This book is a guide to customer relationship management, community management and marketing decades before those terms came into existence.

    Internet Marketing: Strategy, Implementation and Practice by Dave Chaffey, Richard Mayer, Mr Kevin Johnston and Fiona Ellis-Chadwick. Dave Chaffey is a bit of a legend when it comes to internet marketing. This book is a good primer for marketers on digital marketing.

    Planners Guide by JWT London. I work as an account planner. A career path that was founded in London sometime in the mid 1960s. Account planning is a role focused on bringing the consumer into creative thinking. UK ad agency Boase Massimi Pollitt (BMP) are credited with having invented account planning. It was J Walter Thompson (JWT) that gave account planning its name later that year. As is true with the story with many innovations, a similar process happened in Australia at the same time. Both were completely unconnected to each other. Planners Guide by JWT London was originally written in March 1974. It codified the planners role and is still very relevant today. It is the ‘Dead Sea Scroll’ of my profession. It was originally typed up and printed out using a plastic ring binder to hold it together. Eventually the guide seems to have escaped the agency as a photocopy of the original printed copy. It circulated around the industry and was eventually scanned and put online in various places. You can find a good copy here.

    The Dentsu Way by Kotaro Sugiyama and Tim Andree highlighted Dentsu’s Cross Switch approach. Much of marketing is very much about silos, if someone talks about multichannel it usually means online with a fig leaf of offline brand advertising. Sugiyama-san and Andree outline a long running more integrated approach to marketing communications. It is remarkably different to most agencies who go with ‘digital is the answer, now what’s the question’. Many similar books are self-serving pieces of agency marketing, but this isn’t, which is why it earned a place on my bookshelf.

    The Handbook of Online and Social Media Research: Tools and Techniques for Market Researchers by Ray Poynter. I first reviewed Poynter’s book on this blog back in 2010 and it has weathered that time exceptionally well. One of the things that sets it up so well is that Poynter thought about online in a very wide way, rather than falling into the trap of obsessing about insights derived from social media. I still dip back into it on a regular basis. So it goes on and off my bookshelf on a regular basis.

    Philosophy

    Letters from a Stoic: Epistulae Morales AD Lucilium by Lucius Annaeus Seneca. His letters contain all the wisdom and the poise to enable any inquisitive soul to acquire self control, to endure with dignity the burdens of misfortune, to take success and fame with humbleness and cynicism.

    Meditations by Marcus Aurelius – Aurelius was the only Roman emperor who was also a philosopher. Meditations is a set of reflections and exercises that he developed as he sought to understand himself and the universe around him. They were designed to increase his resilience, providing personal consolation and encouragement. Which is the reason why they have been revisited through the ages.

    The Three Pillars of Zen by Philip Kapleau. Despite being over 50 years old as a book, Kapleau still provides the western reader with the best comprehensive yet accessible guide to zen buddhism.

    Zen And The Art Of Motorcycle Maintenance by Robert M Pirsig. I’ve reread this book several times and some of the best times I had in college was discussing it with my house mates during the final year of my degree. ‘Zen’ was our shorthand for the book and the way we used it to reflect on the things going on around us. It’s a great read on many levels. My original copy, was held together by sellotape for many years until it could no longer retain the pages. I am now on my third copy. In the book, Pirsig provides a narrative account of his own pursuit to discover the nature of quality. He paid a high price, which is outlined in the book. In a world of iterative builds on products and ‘move fast and break things’; an understanding of quality has never been more important. Pirsig wrote his book when the most complicated objects in people’s homes where the car in the garage, the TV in the lounge. A sowing machine periodically removed from the cupboard and watch on their wrist. But that doesn’t mean the need for quality has diminished, on the contrary it has increased as fewer objects seem to now possess it.

    Psychology

    The Mind Is Flat by Nick Chater. In this book Chater posits that humans at the bottom of it all ‘story-spinning improvisers. That they interpret and alter their interpretation of the world in the moment. This idea immediately changes our understanding of how our reality, media and advertising work.

    Strategy

    Blue Ocean Strategy by W Chan Kim and Renée Mauborgne. Back when I read the book I summarised as: The book’s premise is that most business strategy books are about conflict and competition and this is wasteful. Instead it provides a framework for strategists to Think Different and differentiate their businesses instead. What’s interesting, but not discussed by the authors is how their work is received by the kind of type-A personalities typically found at the top of businesses. It is well worth having on your bookshelf though.

    Cultural Strategy by Douglas Holt and Douglas Cameron. Holt and Cameron worked at the time of writing for the Cultural Strategy Group. The book posits that a distinctive position can result in a successful company. They look to back this into the company culture itself rather than as a wrapper around a product. More on it here.

    Science, Strategy and War – The strategic theory of John Boyd by Frans P.B. Osinga. Osinga provides context of Boyd’s thinking including how it sprang out of his combat experience. He then talks about the meta analysis of other strategists that Boyd undertook and where he learned from other disciplines including social science, philosophy and scientific theory. John Boyd is a largely mis-understood military strategist whose ideas are increasingly being used out of context in the realms of business and marketing. More on Science, Strategy and War here.

    The Art of War by Sun Tzu – Yes I know that applying military thinking to business strategy is a dangerous rabbit hole to go down. But I think that this book is powerful because it acts as a framework to think about problems rather than suggesting answers. I go back and re-read this every so often for inspiration, which it has such a prominent place on my bookshelf.

    The Manager’s Guide to Systems Practice: Making Sense of Complex Problems by Frank Stowell and Christine Welch – the book outlines a framework for looking at the world that helps in problem solving. It has a good base given that the authors provide a balanced view of different systems thinking approaches. I liked the book as it eases you into systems thinking and then ramps up your learning. That learning curve alone makes this essential for my bookshelf.

    Technology library

    Over time I have built up a bit of a library that covered the technology sector. I had an interest in innovation in college and technology was changing in obvious ways. I had access to JANET before the internet was a consumer product in the UK. I have broken the technology section of my bookshelf down into more depth below

    Technology and economics

    Handbook Of The Economics Of Innovation And Technological Change edited by Paul Stoneman. Stoneman curated a selection of essays that are still as relevant today as they were when I bought this book at a discount book store when I was in college. it seems to be very underrated, not even meriting a single Amazon review.

    New Rules for the New Economy by Kevin Kelly – this was pretty much a bible-like publication during the dot com boom. It fed of the utopian post-counterculture vision that the hippies brought to Silicon Valley. But of course, there aren’t perfect markets and consumers don’t have perfect knowledge.

    The Power Law: Venture Capital and the Art of Disruption by Sebastian Mallaby – this book provides a history of Silicon Valley from the perspective of the venture capital industry that helped finance it. Some of the content is very self congratulatory, such as expansion into China, but overall its a great comprehensive read and an interesting item for the technology section of your bookshelf.

    The Rise and Fall of American Growth by Robert J. Gordon. Published as part of the Princeton Economic History of The Western World, it was a surprise breakout hit. It became a New York Times bestseller at the time of its release in 2015 and got awards from the Financial Times. It is a weighty tome that took me longer to read than I care to admit, despite being off my bookshelf and by my bed. In it economist looks at how technology and innovation impacted economic growth since the American civil war. Its an interesting book that provides difficult reading for techno-optimists. TL;DR – modern technology didn’t drive as much growth as we think. Incomes have been stagnant with some noticeable peaks for longer than we thought. I reviewed it in a bit more depth here.

    Wall Street Meat by Andy Kessler. Kessler was a peer of Henry Blodget, Mary Meaker and Jack Grubman. He still invests and writes the occasional op-ed for the Wall Street Journal. In Wall Street Meat Kessler tells the insanity of the original internet bubble from the finance side.

    Technology and history

    Technology and history is what started me on my career journey during my time at college to today. I loved the Apple PowerBook that I used in college and immediately after. I was inspired by reading Byte, Dr Dobbs Journal (DDJ) and Wired magazines in the college library. I was also inspired by books about Silicon Valley. Specifically one book: Accidental Empires by Robert X Cringely was something so different to what I’d been used to. I’d worked in industry, but hadn’t experienced anything like this. Over time, technology and history built up its own section on my bookshelf.

    Architects Of The Web by Robert H. Reid. He wrote up the profiles of many of the pioneer web companies including Netscape, Real Networks, Marimba, Yahoo! and Silicon Graphics. It’s helpful to revisit the future the way it was envisaged during the late 1990s and see how the future has changed. Reid wasn’t a technology writer by trade, but seems to have caught the bug. Since writing this, he went on to write three Silicon Valley based novels. I have no idea if they are any good.

    Being Digital by Nicholas Negroponte. At the time of writing this book Negroponte was at the top of the digital world. He headed up MIT Media Lab, wrote for Wired and was widely quoted in media around the world. Negroponte did work that foreshadowed in-car sat navigation devices, Google Street View and the modern stylus-less touch screen. Some of the ideas in his book around online media and cord cutting was on the money, at the time it would have been on the bookshelf of politicians, marketers, financiers and technologists. More on Being Digital here.

    The Big Score by Michael Malone covers a quarter century of Silicon Valley history from the fallout of the traitorous eight who left Shockley Semiconductor to just before the launch of the Apple Macintosh. First published in 1985, it gives a good idea of how the first generation of Silicon Valley movers-and-shakers saw themselves. It is unfiltered by PR people. At the time Malone had been a beat reporter for the San Jose Mercury News and had grown up in the Valley. In his later books he treated people like Bill Hewlett and Dave Packard more like august pillars of the community. In The Big Score, he points out their many good factors, but also the social conservativism – endemic to mid-century America. Malone also touches on the Silicon Valley underbelly of hard drinking, hard drugs, broken marriages and endemic industrial espionage.

    Bill and Dave by Michael Malone tells the story of Silicon Valley pioneers Bill Hewlett and Dave Packard. Nowadays people think of them as just a brand of laptops or printers. But Hewlett Packard was much more. They pioneered the Silicon Valley start-up, their successor businesses Agilient, HPE and HP. Bill and Dave’s biggest impact was in Silicon Valley culture and law. They built the company in a garage and started the egalitarian culture with The HP Way. That alone would earn Bill and Dave a space on the bookshelf. More on Bill and Dave here.

    Chip War by Chris Miller covers the cold war from the Soviet Union to present-day China through the lens of the semiconductor industry. Unlike most of the other books in this Technology and history section, the author wasn’t a Silicon Valley insider or longtime resident. That distance allowed him to write a vast history that ended up being shortlisted by the FT as one of their business books of the year.

    Dogfight – Silicon Valley based journalist Fred Vogelstein was writing for publications like Wired and Fortune at the time Apple launched the iPhone and Google launched Android. He had a front-row seat to the rivalry between the two brands. The book is undemanding to read but doesn’t give insight in the way that other works like Insanely Great, Where Wizards Stay Up Late and Accidental Empires did. Part of this might be down to the highly orchestrated public relations campaigns happening at the time. (Vogelstein wrote about his experiences with Microsoft’s PR machine for Wired back in 2007). Instead Vogelstein documents developments that I had largely forgotten about like music labels launching albums as multimedia apps on the new iPhone ecosystem. It’s a workman-like if uninspiring document.

    From Satori to Silicon Valley: San Francisco and the American Counterculture by Theodore Roszak – back in 2008, I wrote a post about a little known 64-page essay pamphlet that outlined the personal memories of a Stanford academic who saw how the counterculture influenced, and gave way to yuppie culture in Silicon Valley. It now costs over £300 on the Amazon UK site.

    Google Hacks by by Rael Dornfest, Paul Bausch and Tara Calishain. So five years ago this book would have been in a section called tools. The problem is that a lot of the ‘hacks’ in this book have been shut down by Google as it grew larger and become less Googly. Instead the book has become an artefact of what power netizens have lost. A number of the ideas in there sound like they might make good start-up concepts in themselves; often an idea needs a few attempts before it becomes a business. Skype built on a long line of voice over IP clients, WhatsApp, Signal and Microsoft Teams owe a huge debt to countless IRC and instant messaging clients. Google Talk died in 2013 when they decided to no longer support the XMPP standard. Google Blog Search was shut down in 2011., Google Base was a way of getting documents, images and spreadsheets directly into Google. Google Reader shut down in 2013, after it had devastated the market for RSS readers – RSS newsreaders survive as a cottage industry thanks to the likes of Newsblur. Google Reader had a bookmarking service in it as well, where users lost stored articles when it closed down. Google Desktop provided Google smarts to searching a journaled version of your computer’s hard drive was discontinued by 2011.

    The Idea Factory: Bell Labs and the Great Age of American Innovation by Joe Gertner – Before there was Silicon Valley there was Thomas Edison and the Bell Telephone Company. A monopoly on telecommunications allowed Bell Telephone to invest in deep research. Gertner pulls together a history that starts to fall down when covering the break up of AT&T in 1984. More on my initial reading of the book here.

    The New, New Thing by Michael Lewis. Pretty much every book that Lewis writes will compare unfavourably to his first book Liar’s Poker, but that book doesn’t mean that The New, New Thing shouldn’t be read. The book profiles Jim Clark, who founded Netscape and Silicon Graphics and aimed at the time to turn the healthcare industry with a new project. Lewis is capturing Clark when he is past his prime from a creative point of view. What Lewis does capture is the optimism and hubris in Silicon Valley that it can change anything.

    The Smartest Guys in the Room: The Amazing Rise and Scandalous Fall of Enron by Bethany McLean and Peter Elkind. I used to work on the Enron account at my first agency that I worked at. We were promoting Enron’s broadband exchange offering. They explained it to me. It made no sense. In this book Enron’s forays into the telecoms sector was part of a wider story of technology, financial wizardry and magical thinking. Eventually it all came crashing down. It seems to be ancient history and then you read the FT coverage on Wirecard.

    What The Dormouse Said by John Markoff. John Markoff is one of the titans of reporting on the business of technology alongside Steve Lohr and Walt Mossberg. In this book Markoff draws a line between the counterculture of the 1960s and the personal computing revolution through to Web 2.0. In many respects it is complementary to Roszak’s From Satori to Silicon Valley

    Technology and ideas

    Closing the Innovation Gap by Judy Estrin. Estrin wrote this book in 2008, where she outlined how soft innovation had taken over the hard innovation previously done in Silicon Valley. The idea of soft innovation (like my previous employer Yahoo!) was an interesting concept. We see it playing out today as the world tries to catch up with China and Taiwan in certain technology areas. More here.

    Technology and media

    It took the best part of a century to refine the art of the cinema from photography to storytelling and everything in between. Silicon Valley itself has evolved from hard technology to a media industry as innovation moved away from base hardware to focus several layers of abstraction higher. That’s why it occupies a section on my bookshelf.

     Burn Rate by Michael Wolff. Wolff was a successful publisher who decided to move into new media in the 1990s in ‘Silicon Alley’ era New York. He shares in the who went through the trials and tribulations of getting funding and the eventual demise of Wolff New Media. He has continued to write books and provide commentary in the US media.

    MIT’s Henry Jenkins – Convergence: Where new and old media collide talks about how technology is influencing the creation and dissemination of media. He starts by looking at how media has become multichannel, for example Star Wars has been animation, films, books, games and web content. Telling a story has moved to leaving bread crumbs and staying just ahead of audience collaborative discovery. More here.

    Tim Hwang puts together what insiders know about the online advertising industry and advertising technology or adtech. Subprime Attention Crisis is more of a long essay than a book per se but it’s built on really well-done desk research. Secondly Hwang has a background in public policy at Google and technology policy related think tanks. You can read more about his book here in my review.

    Technology and privacy

    In an era where we have seen attitudes change from women being concerned about stalkers using where 2.0 services to young adults wanting connections knowing where they are at all times, I do wonder if the greatest threats to privacy is societal attitudes and if this section of the bookshelf will seem outmoded as a distinction in time?

    Crypto by Steven Levy. which charted the development of civilian cryptography. If you’ve ever bought anything online you’ve benefited from cryptography. And the reason why you could do this is due to the determination of hackers, geeks and hippies that fought the government and the intelligence services. Given government’s increasingly authoritarian tone and their new desire to have crackable encryption, this work is more important than ever. More here.

    Dark Wire – an interesting counterpoint to Levy’s Crypto, Cox’ Dark Wire tells the tale of how governments subverted the encrypted messaging apps used by criminals and created a legal framework to come after privacy orientated services like Signal and WhatsApp in the future. Joseph Cox was one of the journalists whose work I followed on Vice News. He specialises in information security related journalism and turns out the kind of features that would have been a cover story on Wired magazine back in the day. With the implosion of Vice Media, he now writes for his own publication: 404 Media. Dark Wire follows the story of four encrypted messaging platforms, with the main focus being on Anon. Anon is a digital cuckoo’s egg. An encrypted messaging service designed for criminals, ran as an arms length front company for the FBI. Cox tells the complex story in a taunt in-depth account that brings it all to life.

    Books about tools

    Books that I have found which aided in personal productivity, getting stuff done or thinking myself out of problems. I don’t necessarily read these books from end-to-end but dip into them which is why they’ve earned a place on my bookshelf.

    Mac Hacks – Chris Seibold’s book is a handy primer for newbie Mac users. I’ve given out several copies of this over the years and keep one at home. Unfortunately Seibold no longer seems to be writing books for O’Reilly any more.

    Trends old and new

    Whilst I am skeptical about a lot of trend forecasters, they are important for the framing that they provide marketers and business thinkers. Here are some of the trend books that were worthwhile reading from my bookshelf.

    Megatrends by John Naisbitt. Megatrends was based on ten years of academic research and ended up being the New York Times best-seller list for two years following its publication in 1982. Along with Alvin Toffler, Naisbitt was a centrist voice who looked to remould institutions to allow them to better serve use in the future. It is interesting reading now, given the pervasive nature of technology. More here.

    Paradigm Shift by Don Tapscott. Paradigm Shift was required reading when I was in college and was one of the most read books on my bookshelf back then. Many of the important concepts such as enterprise collaboration and the co-opting of consumers in the production process have been amplified by technology. Tapscott earned a permanent place on the bookshelf.

    Books that aid writing

    Writing is a key part of my job, and of this blog. I won’t say that I am a great writer, or a good writer for that matter. But I have tried to focus on being an effective writer in my professional career. On my bookshelf are some items that have helped me with this process.

    How To Write A Thesis by Umberto Eco. Eco’s book is a really good guide to collecting one’s thoughts and presenting facts gained through a comprehensive research process.

    The Chicago Manual of Style is a handy resource when writing for American audience. It’s a vast tome and has a useful guide for referencing. The AMA Manual of Style has been useful when I have been writing on healthcare-related projects.

    The Yahoo! Style Guide: The Ultimate Sourcebook for Writing, Editing, and Creating Content for the Digital World – when I started off in agency life, there were three main style guides on your bookshelf. The AP Stylebook, which was adhered for copy going into American newspapers. Either of the Economist or FT style guides were used for UK and Irish business writing. When I got to Yahoo! in the spring of 2005 – I was given a ring bound version of what would be later published as The Yahoo! Style Guide. The Yahoo! Style Guide distills the knowledge of editors who had been writing for the web since the mid-1990s and was pitched at a mainstream audience. If you want to talk and pitch the average member of the English speaking public, there is no better guide to writing than this. Given the reference nature of this book, if you have the opportunity; buy a style guide that is spiral bound. It will be more hardwearing than its softbound brethren and sits flat on a desk when open without having to leave it page down. (I also miss old school spiral bound technical manuals for the same reason). At the time of writing only AP provide this option to the general public and it is worth the extra $12 dollar or so, premium you pay to get it on your bookshelf. Especially if you are using the guide day-in, day-out.

  • What if Stories are Brain Code?

    The boy on the wall

    From Hollywood to the marketing industry we’re told that stories resonate with us. They are the reason why films, books, video games and TV dramas entertain. According to storytelling theorists like Joseph Campbell; we find fulfilment understanding what is happening. Campbell et al think that our enjoyment of stories analogous to the enjoyment of solving puzzles. What if stories can be more than puzzles for our enjoyment?

    Our understanding of storytelling

    Our understanding of storytelling is of a more tenuous nature than Newtonian physics or organic chemistry. You could argue that Joseph Campbell was a ‘victim’ of his discipline. He worked in the fields of comparative mythology and religion. Campbell was looking for universal patterns in stories. He assumed that rest of us are as well. Though this ‘understanding’ would be occcuring at a ‘low level’ in computing terms. Only select (mostly educated) people would think of it at a higher conscious rational level.

    Like many academics in the early and mid-20th century his work drew inspiration from eastern religions. In Campbell’s case, like Nietzsche; he drew from Hindu thought. Campbell’s interest in Indian philosophy was due to a meeting. In 1924, Campbell encountered the messiah elect of the Theosophical Society. He was on a cruise liner from Europe to the US. Campbell was also profoundly affected by Nietzsche’s work.

    • Did Nietzsche open Campbell to Indian philosophy or was it the other way around?
    • Was it just the nature of a naturally enquiring mind?
    • Were there factors that made him more open to it?

    Campbell based his theories on myth and its connection to the human psyche in part on Sigmund Freud. Campbell’s myth concepts drew on Jung’s dream interpretation methods. Jung’s insights into archetypes drew from The Tibetan Book of The Dead. Campbell quotes Jung on The Tibetan Book of The Dead in The Mythical Image:

    “belongs to that class of writings which not only are of interest to specialists in Mahayana Buddhism, but also, because of their deep humanity and still deeper insight into the secrets of the human psyche, make an especial appeal to the layman seeking to broaden his knowledge of life… For years, ever since it was first published, the Bardo Thodol has been my constant companion, and to it I owe not only many stimulating ideas and discoveries, but also many fundamental insights.”

    (Bardo Thodol is another name for The Tibetan Book of The Dead). A lot of this hinges on the value of dreams. Heres what Dream interpretation and false beliefs has to say. It was published in the journal Professional Psychology: Research and Practice in 1999:

    “Dream interpretation is a common practice in psychotherapy. In the research presented in this article, each participant saw a clinician who interpreted a recent dream report to be a sign that the participant had had a mildly traumatic experience before age 3 years, such as being lost for an extended time or feeling abandoned by his or her parents. This dream intervention caused a majority of participants to become more confident that they had had such an experience, even though they had previously denied it. These findings have implications for the use of dream material in clinical settings. In particular, the findings point to the possibility that dream interpretation may have unexpected side effects if it leads to beliefs about the past that may, in fact, be false.”

    This doesn’t necessarily invalidate Campbell’s theory in terms of storytelling. But it seems to cast doubt on the application of Jungian dream interpretation for clinical use. The best advice that I can give in this matter is caveat lectorem.

    From Academia to Hollywood: formulaic stories

     

    Joseph Campbell was a prolific author.  He published material that went into over 40 books. Part of this was due to the efforts of the Joseph Campbell Foundation, which collected his papers and published a number of work after his death. These included: coverage of his academic work, travel diaries and even his personal philosophy. It was picked up on by the American public, which has been endless quoted and misinterpreted due to the phrase ‘follow your bliss’.

    The key work of Campbell was his 1949 work The Hero With A Thousand Faces. it was his first solo work and got him recognition outside academic circles. The central them is that ‘myths’ from around the world all share a common structure. This is what Campbell called a ‘monomyth’. The monomyth or hero’s journey was mapped out visually on Wikipedia

    heroes journey

    Campbell went on to propose the purpose of these myths which he grouped into four functions. Wikipedia described it thus:

    The Metaphysical Function – Awakening a sense of awe before the mystery of being The Cosmological Function – Explaining the shape of the universe The Sociological Function – Validate and support the existing social order The Pedagogical Function – Guide the individual through the stages of life

    Campbell’s work went on to influence luminaries of the 1960s counterculture movement including Jerry Garcia of the Grateful Dead and Jim Morrison. It’s obvious influence in film kicked in around the same time. Stanley Kubrick introduced it Arthur C. Clarke. This happened during their collaboration to turn Clarke’s short story The Sentinel into 2001 A Space Odyssey screen play and book. George Lucas’ role in the popularisation of Campbell’s work was probably the biggest single effect. Hollywood at the time was in a state of dramatic change. This change mirrored the kind of change that the punk ethic and independent labels wrought on the music industry a decade later. Artistic and cultural change, further globalisation of artistic culture, new motion film camera technology and the rise of television created a set of factors that helped facilitate the rise of New Hollywood. The initial success of these director-driven films allowed power shifted from the producers to the studios for a time.

    • Directors drew on foreign influences: new wave cinema, Japanese cinema
    • The MPAA ratings system allowed more adult subjects to be discussed that would have otherwise been taboo
    • The Panavision Panaflex camera provided a more compact way to shoot on 35mm film. This facilitated greater use of location shooting, providing a more naturalistic style and also facilitated Lucas’ special effects in Star Wars

    Whilst Lucas was part of this movement; both THX 1138 and American Graffiti, fit within the New Hollywood genre. But like Stephen Spielberg, Lucas unwittingly created the next stage in movie development that helped producers take back their seat of power. Star Wars became a blockbuster. Though the ingredients were very different to the corporate creations of Marvel Studios or the Transformers franchise.

    Its homage to the chambara films of Akira Kurosawa, pre-war Flash Gordon episodes and vintage westerns smacked of New Hollywood. It’s blockbuster status meant that the industry paid attention to valuable lessons learned. George Lucas became the first film maker to publicly cite The Hero With a Thousand Faces and other Campbell works as influences. Lucas repaid the creative debt that he owed to The Hero With A Thousand Faces by allowing Bill Moyes to shoot a series of interviews with Joseph Campbell  at Skywalker Ranch.

    Campbell and storytelling theory then became baked into Hollywood’s DNA. Over time it came into marketing, firstly through the creative side of the advertising industry. Television advertising at the time borrowed creative direction and stories from movie expertise. Directors like Tony Kaye and Ridley Scott moved between advertising and film projects. Eventually storytelling moved through other parts of the marketing industry including public relations. Hollywood have taken a number of turns at further refining Campbell’s monomyth model.

    One has to note that their goals are different from Campbell’s research. Hollywood largely seeks to entertain (for profit) and getting the viewer to suspend disbelief for the duration fo the movie or TV series rather than  achieving one of Campbell four functions.

    Different cuts on the hero's journey

    Volger is commonly cited by modern script writers. He refines and expands the thinking around the monomyth. Volger puts more emphasis than Campbell on the hero’s change in emotional state and internal journey.  His emphasis on emotion is important when one is creating content to land brand messages and would be of interest to the advertising community. The biggest area of disagreement that many have with Volger’s approach is that his structure implies a steady change in emotional state and internal journey of the hero. A paradigm shift in state would possibly create greater dramatic tension for the viewer.

    From monomyth to winning algorithm.

    Technology has moved from the creative process of film making an into the commercial side of the process. The movie industry is supporting machine learning based startups like ScriptBook. Belgium-based ScriptBook analyses screen plays to produce forecasts before a film is put into production. ScriptBook provides a box office earnings forecast, likely MPAA rating and recommended market demographics. Of course, many classic films had screen plays that were altered or completely rewritten several times. The tortured overworked scriptwriters working miracles in really short times and ‘script doctors’ called into ‘fix’ a bad situation. Both are part of the Hollywood system and its own mythology. In many respects ScriptBook mirrors the marketing industry’s move towards the adoption of predictive analytics for consumer behavioural change.

    How stories work for the brain.

    Behavioural scientist Nick Chater has roughly two decades of published academic work behind him based on research in various aspects of cognitive science. He has a depth and credibility to his work that we currently don’t have  on people and storytelling.

    In his book The Mind is Flat, Chater posits that the mind doesn’t have conscious and unconscious aspects. Emotions aren’t hard wired, instead thoughts and feeling are created on the fly. This effectively invalidates Freudian psychology principles. Our inner voice is effectively our brain telling storytelling to itself.  Our identities are constructed and given shape on the fly by the stories that we tell to ourselves as we go along. The unconscious mind would appear to be a conceit about our depth.

    This brings to mind the final episode in season two of Westworld, where the systems who had been trying to replicate humans realised their challenges. They had assumed humans were complex in nature, where as the show claims that they can be replicated in 10,247 lines of code, with definite limits on their potential. Of course 10,247 lines of code, whilst less than Photoshop could have a world of fractal complexity.

    Essentially there is no ‘deeper’ language than storytelling. Stories aren’t only about rules and plot consistency, but about creative leaps.

    This means from a marketing perspective whilst if we get stories right, they can be more powerful than we had previously imagined. In computing terms we would be writing direct the processor or ‘hitting the metal’ as games programmers would call it. It also needs to take into account that getting great stories is really hard.

    It also casts more questions about whether we have learned the right lessons to date about storytelling from the likes of Joseph Campbell?

    More information

    Joseph Campbell – The Mythical Image
    The Tibetan Book of The Dead
    Mazzoni, G. A. L., Lombardo, P., Malvagia, S., & Loftus, E. F. (1999). Dream interpretation and false beliefs. Professional Psychology: Research and Practice, 30(1), 45-50.
    The Hero With A Thousand Faces by Joseph Campbell
    Hero’s Journey – Wikipedia
    2001: A Space Odyssey by Arthur C Clarke
    The Writer’ Journey by Christopher Volger
    Artificial Intelligence Might Affect How Studios Greenlight Movies | Cinemablend
    Artificial Intelligence Could One Day Determine Which Films Get Made | Variety
    ScriptBook “Hard science, better box office” and Crunchbase profile
    This Man Says the Mind Has No Depths | Nautilus
    The Mind is Flat: The Illusion of Mental Depth and The Improvised Mind by Nick Chater
    ‘Westworld’ Season Finale Recap: Code Unknown | Rolling Stone Online

  • HSBC PMI + more things

    HSBC PMI

    HSBC will no longer provide one of the best gauges of China’s economy – Quartz – but hopefully someone else will step up to do the sponsorship instead. The HSBC PMI measure was the most reliable economic measure coming out of China that was wasn’t skewed by state-owned enterprises (SOEs). SOEs get easy state bank loans where as the private SMEs that the HSBC PMI looks at don’t have that advantage and so provide a ‘truer’ picture of what is actually going on. Does this mean a longer term difficult position for HSBC as well as transparent economic data like the HSBC PMI?

    China

    Born Red – The New Yorker – interesting profile of Xi Jinping

    Culture

    Check out MelodySheep’s album on Bandcamp. More culture related content here.

    483 lines by Seoul-based Kimchi and Chips is a welcome break from 3d projection mapping for interesting visualisations. It reminds me of the work Troika turn out

    Economics

    A generation from now, most of the world’s GDP will come from Asia | Quartz – get ready for the new order of things

    FMCG

    I was doing some research and came across the collaboration between MelodySheep and General Mills to remix Lucky Charms adverts. His interpretation shows a darker side to the kids hunting for Lucky Charms

    Innovation

    SoftBank Robot Pepper Sells Out in a Minute – Japan Real Time – WSJ – via Aldebaran Robotics (paywall) – much of this is about Japanese culture’s positive reception to robots as it is to the quality of Pepper itself. There are other robots that can fill a similar kind of customer service role. Its really worth reading about how Japanese consumers interacted with their Sony Aibo

    Japan

    This wonderful film of Tokyo by Brandon Li which somehow feels as if it should be a Guinness advert, partly due to the narration by Tom O’Bedlam

    It is interesting how the Guinness brand has came to own strong storytelling in advertising.

    Media

    Cannes: Google’s agency-sales head wants to push creativity – Campaign Asia – ZOO – Google’s creative agency butts up against agencies to get creative briefs (paywall)

    Online

    2015/16 Fixture List Released | Barclays Premier League – interesting that the FA are recommending match-by-match hashtags to build conversations on Twitter

    I have been using Ben Haller‘s Fracture fractal screensaver for almost as long as I have used Mac OS X (back when it was called Puma). Michael Clark has a site for images used creating Fracture called Fractal of the Day with achingly beautiful tripped out abstract images. The Mac has traditionally been a home to lots of passionate small software development companies who code thoughtful apps. These apps then build a passionate user community around them.  
    mandelbroitset

    Security

    GCHQ spies discredit targets on the internet – Business Insider – about what I would expect them to be doing. More security related posts here.

    Technology

    I, Cringely The U.S. computer industry is dying and I’ll tell you exactly who is killing it and why – I, Cringely – cloud computing is economics not innovation