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  • AI sovereignty + more stuff

    AI sovereignty

    A post on AI sovereignty came out of one of those times when a casual conversation suddenly has you seeing the theme in your news feeds. I was having one of them conversations with a friend over a paper cup of coffee, mentioned I’d been embedded at Google and they said ‘we can’t trust the Americans with AI, the way we did with social’.

    IBM-GS

    That opens opportunities. Chinese open source models are working in Singapore government data centres, Korean cloud computing company Naver is looking beyond its own country for clients who want an alternative to US big technology. France has gone it alone with its own defence AI – as the ultimate expression of AI sovereignty.

    Apple to fine-tune Gemini independently, no Google branding on Siri, more – 9to5Mac – Apple white labelling Gemini is similar to the Google Search deal in that its outsourcing heavy compute. But also interesting in that it’s making the AI invisible, Apple has hold of the experience and so gains its own AI sovereignty.

    The All-Star Chinese AI Conversation of 2026 | ChinaTalk – Interesting discussions on China based AI platforms on their successes and challenges. By their nature, the give China defacto AI sovereignty. Risk taking and GPUs or TPUs performance seem to be the main sources of concern. A good deal of focus on squeezing out the maximum intelligence per watt rather than scaling to infinity and beyond. Tonality wise it’s refreshing down to earth in comparison to Altman et al.

    Engram: How DeepSeek Added a Second Brain to Their LLM | rewire.it | rewire.it Blog – China making major strides to move the state of the art in LLMs forward.

    How AI Destroys Institutions by Woodrow Hartzog, Jessica M. Silbey :: SSRN – interesting if alarmist paper that indicates the need for organisations to have more control over their intentional use of AI through AI sovereignty.

    ‘South Korea’s Google’ pitches AI alternative to US and China | FT – Korea has built up positive relations in the Middle East since the 1970s when they helped on major construction and engineering projects. They would be viewed positively and as a good hedge to both the US and China from a technology dependency point-of-view. Their offer is greater AI sovereignty for Middle Eastern countries in particular, you might also winning business in Central Asia as well.

    Beauty

    Dermatologists criticise ‘dystopian’ skincare products aimed at children | Skincare | The GuardianDermatologists have criticised an actor’s new skincare brand, calling it “dystopian” for creating face masks for four-year-olds, warning that the beauty industry is now expanding its reach from teenagers to toddlers.

    It comes as a growing number of brands are moving into the children’s, teenage and young adult skincare market. In October, the first skincare brand developed for under-14s, Ever-eden, launched in the US. Superdrug has just created a range for those aged between 13 and 28.

    A number of brands have surged in popularity among very young social-media users, creating a phenomenon known as “Sephora kids”. These children share videos showcasing beauty products from Drunk Elephant, Bubble, Sol de Janeiro and similar brands.

    China

    Apple Reportedly Canceled Orders of Chinese iPhone 17 Pro Displays | MacRumors

    Consumer behaviour

    A Theory of Dumb: Why Are IQ Scores Suddenly Falling? | Intelligencera century ago, if you asked someone what dogs and rabbits have in common, they might answer “Dogs hunt rabbits,” not “They’re both mammals.”Maybe, then, all the noise and novelty wasn’t rotting our minds but upgrading them. (Studies suggest that better nutrition and reduced exposure to lead may have also helped.) In any case, the Flynn effect held steady for so long and through so many apparent threats that there was no reason to believe it wouldn’t last forever, even if, someday, somebody invented a chatbot that could do homework or Theo Von started podcasting.


    Or so thought Elizabeth Dworak, now an assistant professor at Northwestern University’s medical school, when she chose the topic of her 2023 master’s thesis. She decided to analyze the results of 394,378 IQ tests taken in the U.S. between 2006 and 2018 to see if they exhibited the same climb. “I had all this cognitive data and thought, Hey, there’s probably a Flynn effect in there,” she says. But when she ran the numbers, “I felt like I was in Don’t Look Up,” the movie in which an astronomy grad student played by Jennifer Lawrence discovers a comet speeding toward Earth. “I spent weeks going back through all the code. I thought I’d messed something up and would have to delay submitting. But then I showed my adviser, and he said, ‘Nope, your math is right.’”
    The math showed declines in three important testing categories, including matrix reasoning (abstract visual puzzles), letter and number series (pattern recognition), and verbal reasoning (language-based problem-solving). The first two, in which losses were deepest, measure what psychologists call fluid intelligence, or the power to adapt to new situations and think on the fly. The drops showed up across age, gender, and education level but were most dramatic among 18-to-22-year-olds and those with the least amount of schooling.

    The surprising truth about who the loneliest generations are – BBC News – interesting read that matches up with research I did for a consumer brand brief that didn’t happen in the end. I wrote about it more here.

    How Hustle Culture Got America Addicted to Work – Business Insider in America, the long, steady march toward a more leisurely future came to an abrupt halt. Today, according to the international economic database Penn World Table, the German work year is an astonishing 380 hours shorter than ours — which means that Germans work almost 10 weeks less than we do every year.

    Even stranger, Americans began to glamorize their lack of free time. As the boomer generation reshaped society in its own image, it brought its ’60s, countercultural ethos to the workplace — transforming the staid, conformist office into a vessel of self-expression. Work became the central means by which you undertook to live your best life, follow your passion, and change the world. As Goldman bankers and Google idealists alike began to toil through the nights and weekends that previous generations had fought so hard to secure for them, mental-health professionals bemoaned the rise of what became known as “hustle culture.” Working long hours was suddenly the ultimate status symbol, a peculiarly American form of humblebrag. In 2017, a clever marketing study found that if you told an American you worked long hours, they assumed you were rich. If you told an Italian the same thing, they assumed you were poor.

    Waymo Has Come for the Kids in Los Angeles – The New York Times“Here, it is not unusual for families to have multiple children attending different schools far from home. School buses, if you are deemed eligible, are limited to dropping off and picking up children at locations and times that are often unhelpful. The city bus, if there is somehow a direct route to school, comes with its own set of risks that can make parents uneasy.

    Ms. Rivera, a psychiatric social worker, is stuck at work until 6 p.m. most days, while her husband, who installs and repairs glass, comes home even later.

    The couple struggles to coordinate their jobs and their three children. They tried Uber, and Lyft, but found that those drivers tended to cancel after discovering their riders were minors. They turned to HopSkipDrive, a service geared toward students, but the drivers had to be scheduled in advance, and would leave if children were late.

    Then, a few months ago, Ms. Rivera and Alexis did a test run with Waymo.

    “It was the only option where I was like, ‘Oh my God, she can order a car, nobody’s in there, she can unlock it with her phone,’” Ms. Rivera, 42, said. “I know she’s going to be safe and she’s going to get home.” – interesting use case

    Culture

    How hip-hop is shaping the fight for Taiwan’s future | Dazed

    Design

    The Designer’s Playbook for AI Products | by Dára Sobaloju | Bootcamp | Dec, 2025 | Medium – the old rules still apply mostly

    Economics

    The Art of Slowing Down: Why the UAE’s Growth Story Is Now Impossible to Ignore – Intern Pierre

    The Incidence of Tariffs: Rates and Reality Gita Gopinath and Brent Neiman (University of Chicago) – the prinicpal burden seems to be on US industry and highlights the difficulty in trying to unwind global supply chains through tariffs

    Gadgets

    How Oura Ring Capitalizes on Gen Z Women’s Health and Wellness | Vogue

    Why are MP3 players making a comeback? | Dazed – also sound quality, in particular the iPods with the Wolfson DACs

    Ideas

    Nobody knows how large software products work | sean goedecke

    Korea

    Chinese chipmaker CXMT in crosshairs of South Korean prosecutors over Samsung tech leak | South China Morning Post

    South Korea’s consumer agency to order SK Telecom to compensate 58 hacking victims – TradingView — Track All Markets

    Luxury

    Chinese luxury goes local | WARCHigh-end Chinese brands are stealing a march on their Western rivals with homegrown labels that appeal to more discerning local consumers who are looking for luxury items that feel tailored to them. China’s $49bn luxury market is “changing fast”: ecommerce sales at jeweller Lapou Gold, for instance, have surged more than 1000% in the first three quarters of this year compared with two years ago. Songmont, a Chinese brand that claims to have ‘experiential’ designer bags, has grown its online sales 90% while Gucci online bag sales in China have fallen 50%, according to the Business Times. – This was inevitable when you had so many talented (and a number of mediocre) Chinese people being brought through the likes of Central St Martins.

    Six thousand new perfumes in 2025: Why manufacturers are flooding the market

    Marketing

    Coca-Cola CMO Manolo Arroyo on WPP, AI and a new era for media | The DrumCoca-Cola’s marketing ecosystem was sprawling and complex. The business was working with approximately 6,000 agency partners globally, while the majority of its multi-billion-dollar media budget was allocated to traditional channels. Arroyo wanted fewer partners, deeper integration and a shift towards digital-first execution at scale.

    That ambition led to the consolidation of Coca-Cola’s global advertising account into WPP and the creation of Open X, a bespoke unit designed to manage the brand across markets and disciplines. Nine studios were established in key regions, housing a mix of Coca-Cola employees, WPP staff and specialist partners.

    It’s a marketing factory,” says Arroyo. “There are more than 2,000 employees of Coca-Cola and more than 2,000 employees of WPP […] and ultimately it’s enabled us to move from a company that in 2019 was investing close to 75% of our paid media on traditional TV, to a company that’s going to end up this year putting 70% of all our paid media on digital, particularly social and influencer led, marketing. For us, it’s our new TV.

    Materials

    Drones: Decoupling Supply Chains from China | Royal United Services Institute

    Media

    How DVDs and CDs are becoming cool again in the age of streaming – The Washington Post – artefacts are memories and are imbued with meaning in a way that streaming can’t be.

    Online

    Techrights — Baidu and Yandex Have Overtaken Microsoft in Asia | Techrights

    Security

    Outcry after French army chief’s ‘prepared to lose children’ warning | Le Monde“We have all the knowledge, all the economic and demographic strength to deter the Moscow regime from trying its luck by going further,” said Mandon. “What we lack, and this is where you have a major role to play, is the strength of spirit to accept suffering in order to protect who we are.”

    Paying tribute to French forces deployed worldwide, he added: “If our country falters because it is not prepared to accept – let’s be honest – to lose its children, to suffer economically because defense production will take precedence, then we are at risk.” – I don’t think that the west is ready or able to face Russia or China because of this. The war is lost before its fought

    SOF, AI, and Changing Western Conceptions of War | Small Wars Journal by Arizona State UniversityEach generational shift in technology impacts military operations. Consequently, a shift in military training, command, and promotion structure should follow. Much of the conversation surrounding AI makes it seem like an unprecedented esoteric concept. While this is partly true, the same was said about steam engines during the Industrial Revolution. Simply put, AI is the next technological breakthrough and there will be more after it. As Clausewitz stated, the character of war changes, not the nature of war. A willingness to adapt while following strategic tenets will enable us to weather the storm and thrive in AI generation warfare. Failure to do so will only bring obsolescence while America’s adversaries gain global hegemonic status. Proper implementation of AI will result in faster decision making, more accurate intelligence, improved resource allocation, better spatial awareness, more effective messaging, and more impactful strategies. The key to reaching this level of success is SOF. SOF is uniquely equipped and trained to implement AI quickly and effectively, delivering results that can be scaled to the rest of the military. 

    A New Anonymous Phone Carrier Lets You Sign Up With Nothing but a Zip Code | WIREDPhreeli, the phone carrier startup is designed to be the most privacy-focused cellular provider available to Americans. Phreeli, as in, “speak freely,” aims to give its user a different sort of privacy from the kind that can be had with end-to-end encrypted texting and calling tools like Signal or WhatsApp. Those apps hide the content of conversations, or even, in Signal’s case, metadata like the identities of who is talking to whom. Phreeli instead wants to offer actual anonymity. It can’t help government agencies or data brokers obtain users’ identifying information because it has almost none to share. The only piece of information the company records about its users when they sign up for a Phreeli phone number is, in fact, a mere ZIP code. That’s the minimum personal data Merrill has determined his company is legally required to keep about its customers for tax purposes.

    Waking the Sleeping European Giant – by Matthew C. Klein | The Overshoot“Europe” as a geopolitical entity does not exist. Instead of a strong and independent continent capable of securing the lives and freedoms of its citizens, Europe is divided into dozens of countries, all of which are too small individually to stand up to external threats. The problem is compounded by the mismatch between where the military resources can be found and where they are most needed. There is relatively little overlap between the places with the balance sheet capacity (mostly in the north), the places with the productive capacity (mostly in the center), the places with the largest populations of otherwise unoccupied fighting-age men (more in the south), and Europe’s front lines (largely, although not exclusively, in the east).

    Thailand’s tilt toward China tests treaty alliance with US | Defense News

    Software

    AI agents and the 90% problem – by Kyle Chan

    Exclusive | Meta Buys AI Startup Manus for More Than $2 Billion – WSJ

    Bending Spoons raids the digital graveyard for paranormal returns | FT – businesses in the Bending Spoons stable: AOL, the dial-up internet service that had been most recently attached to Yahoo, and Evernote, the virtual scratch pad. – alongside Vimeo and Brightcove with Eventbrite due to join them

    Geek Squad Agents reflect on 20th anniversary of Y2K – Best Buy Corporate News and Information

    The Politics Of Superintelligence

    Wireless

    China Issues First Penalty for Starlink Use in Territorial Waters | GCaptain

  • Ideas for being a good strategist

    A big shout out first of all to Rob Estreitinho who inspired this post full of ideas for strategists. I have built on his work. Some of the suggestions are what works for me or Rob and may not work for you – but give them a try.

    The Earth from the International Space Station

    Ideas

    1. Read widely – thank goodness my Irish emigrant parents instilled in me the Irish love of reading. My Dad was an apprentice at 14, but has never given up a love of books if he had the chance. My Mum reads less with the lethargy of age creeping up on her, but they both seeded the idea of reading widely to me.
    2. Get an RSS reader – find middle-aged people who used the net back in the early 2000s to early 2010s seriously and mention Google Reader to them and watch them go misty-eyed longing for forgotten online halcyon days. It didn’t make you depressed or hate yourself. While Google Reader is long gone, the underlying technology that enabled it is very much alive. It’s called RSS and Atom – same, same but different. All the RSS readers work along similar ideas; over time you find good sites, you follow them and get more good content from as they update. My tool of choice is Newsblur. But if you want to continue to rely TikTok, Twitter and Truth Social – you do you.
    3. Your bookmarks are gold – on the bookmark bar of my browser I have a range of tools. I use Pinboard to keep every bookmark I have used in my work life for a long time. I go back through them to find quality content to start from for insights when kicking off a project. Anything you get elsewhere will be filtered through context and algorithm rather than quality. I also have a hard drive of old reports that I can go through and over-stuffed bookshelves.
    4. Read weirdly – As a child I read everything in my Uncle’s farm house from the Connacht Tribune , Irish Farmers Journal to Old Moore’s Almanac and Ireland’s Own. Later on, one of the great privileges for me of going to college and then going to university, was the opportunity pick up odd books that would never have otherwise read. I would also browse County Books – a discount book store which allowed me to pick up unrelated academic books like Paul Stoneman’s Handbook of the Economics of Innovation and Technological Change – which is still invaluable today. Using an RSS reader and following other’s recommendations provides a similar opportunity. Finally, subscribe to Matt Muir’s Web Curios to get the edges of the web.
    5. Make your arguments simple. – Going through this filtration process helps make ideas stronger as well as more accessible. My Myer-Briggs type is apparently INTJ ‘the architect’ – I have a clear vision of the thing. But going simpler allows you take stakeholders with you. Ideas only gain power as they pass from person-to-person.
    6. Now make them simpler than that. When I thought about this, it reminded me of Matt Holt, who talked about good strategy being pain. This squeezing process is more than an expression, but a process that forms the quality of an idea.
    7. Use simple words your mum would understand, or use simple words your mum’s mum would understand – as suggestions go were curiously Ogilvian in nature. However I when thought it, they were less helpful pieces of advice than they appear. Older people tend to be more articulate and may have more arcane terms. One thing generative AI does allow us to do is test how an idea would be expressed based on a notional character. So think about simplicity, through the lens of possible audiences.
    8. Always start with a written document – I have found the notes.app on my Mac liberating. I can take my notes with me on my iPhone. I dump in links, language, ideas in to be played with and moved around. Insights and ideation become hybridised as a process.
    9. Know a good meme account for the category you work with. If you don’t know one start with Reddit threads and you start to get a good feel for the themes and memes coming through.
    10. Know a really good podcast your audience would listen to. Searching for podcast recommendations and listening to them can help you get into the right headspace for a given project.
    11. Assume every problem has a fascinating side to it. If you work in strategy there are a few parts of the job to inspire your love of it. The ability to read around a subject, discover the problem at the centre of the challenge you are working, wrestle with that kernel of truth to give creatives something to work with. The process of wrestling the problem usually unearths the fascination at the centre.
    12. Start your presentations with a twist. If you don’t have audience interested at the beginning, you won’t hold it until the end of your presentation. In terms of my personal writing, I use the background behind the number marking the edition of the newsletter to engage the curiosity of the reader.
    13. End your presentations with a lesson. I like this as it reminds me of the old presentation training maxim: tell’em what you are going to tell’em, tell’em it, tell’em what you just told them. Ideas like advertising get better through repetition. The end summary can be just verbal, it doesn’t need to be in slideware.
    14. If you’re feeling spicy, end your presentations with a cautionary note. Being provocative and interesting is good, BUT know your audience before attempting this.
    15. Don’t obsess with strategy frameworks. Strategy frameworks have their place. They are great for establishing a common language – the classic example being the marketing funnel. They’re also good at dealing with the mental blankness that comes from an empty page or screen. But they can also be modified, built-upon or thrown away depending on what solving the problem needs.
    16. Don’t bore your client with strategy frameworks. I’d argue, don’t bore your client. Their problems should be interesting, otherwise why would they get someone like you or me to try and solve them? If we are boring the client, there’s one of three things happening: you’re not solving their problem, you’ve gone off-mission away from the problem and the likely solution or the solution doesn’t solve the problem.
    17. Remember the audience will never read your strategy. The only exception to this is the occasional Venn diagram-based advert creative.
    18. Don’t interrupt people, especially when they’re demonstrating passion. Do remember to record it, otherwise you might be lost in the flow and lose the insights.
    19. Notice what people say and play it back to them. This is a classic technique that is taught to salespeople and was in Dale Carnegie’s How To Win Friends and Influence People. It provides a number of benefits:
      • Ensures that you’ve understood what they wanted to say and you’re clear about it. It’s easier to get an explanation now, rather than later on.
      • Carnegie liked it because he recognised that people liked to be understood.
      • Allows you to build a common vocabulary with the other person.
    20. Start sentences with “I wonder if”. Use this sparingly, but at the right time it is a powerful way of testing ideas and directions.
    21. Observe people, but do so discreetly and don’t weird them out:
      • In coffee shops
      • At a greasy spoon cafe or the Motorway services station
      • On public transport
      • At trade shows. What stuff gets dumped from the collection of brochures they have. What way to people navigate a client’s stand. What seems to be attracting the most attention and the least? .
    22. Say “I don’t know yet” when you don’t know… yet.
    23. Don’t worry about memorising everything you read. If you can retain it all brilliant, but it’s not an exam, you can go back and check references if you are unsure. Instead it’s much more important to understand the topology of the problem and the direction that a solution would need to take.
    24. Do use index cards – one of my favourite things on Amazon is sets of index cards and steel rings to hold them together in one corner. I use this to build my written memory on a clients business and products. I find the act of writing it down helps to build memory structures. I was inspired in this by Umberto Eco’s How To Write A Thesis.
    25. Study ways to find out about things. I am a bit of a pack rat when it comes to tools, reports etc – as are other people I know. One of the areas that strategists have been ignoring up until now, but could learn a lot on in the hobbyist world of OSINT and your local library.
    26. Use Claude AI to explain your own argument back to you – was a recommendation of Rob, I am using Gemini at the moment and it performs a similar role. However I do see the benefit of getting a couple of sets of viewpoints to pressure test your thinking. Previously, I would have done this with colleagues like Rob Fuller or Zoe Healey – generative AI kind of fills the gap and has some serendipity in its inherent weirdness. Whatever way you do it, stress-test your ideas.
    27. Believe people when they say you did great, if it’s written down keep a record of it for your appraisal. But don’t let your personal sense of worth be defined by your career – you are more than your job.
    28. Write with a thicker pen – it forces your handwriting to be clearer, letter shapes better defined. But use a thinner pen when thinking about structure and interconnections. I am a great believer when listening to talks or thinking about presenting a subject to mind map it out on engineering squared paper first. From the flow of interconnections, a natural order emerges.
    29. Write with a bigger typeface – I would focus on legibility rather than size. And no comic sans – not even in irony.
    30. Always change to 1.5 line spacing.
    31. Don’t cheat on your one-pagers by making the typeface smaller. With generative AI now, why would you even do this?
    32. Have strategy pals – but not to the exclusion of types of people. Try and have a diverse social network. It’s very easy to live in an advertising and media industry eco-system and out of touch with the general public.
    33. Cmd+S every other minute. It’s a good idea to build this up as muscle memory, even if unnecessary in services like Google Docs and Office 365. Latency rather than a software crash are the most likely killer of documents nowadays.
    34. Take care to manage your browser tabs, if you use a social bookmarking service, you can always go back to them later.
    35. Buy a random magazine. Your clients might be all about social platforms but magazines, have been, and still are great windows into culture. I have a stack of Japanese style magazines for inspiration and try and buy a local magazine to leaf through when travelling. They are a fountain of future ideas.
    36. Do a walking meeting. I miss doing walking meetings, at the time I had a colleague that lived within walking distance which made the process ideal. I also realise that this is often hard to do, when your project manager has filled you up on back-to-back calls. One thing I remember doing at Unilever was dialling into conference calls on my phone and listening in while walking around my office floor at 100 Victoria Embankment. Admittedly it’s not practical to do when presentations are being shared, or when your contribution is required to be engaged as a note taker.
    37. Breathe while you talk. You have nervous energy, you want to get it all out. Breathing slows your thinking down so those finer elements won’t slip out of your grasp. I know people who swear by Toastmasters as a help to master this.
    38. Daydream for no good reason. We live by the tyranny of the calendar on our phones or laptops and have lost sight of the time needed to think and let ideas worm their way out of our subconscious to the conscious mind at the front of our thoughts.
    39. Have the basics of understanding wetware. The currency of being a strategist is people. We are the voice of the customer (people), clients (who also happen to be people) rely on us to solve problems, creatives rely on our translation of noise into something they, as people, can relate to. We don’t do all that alone, so thank people who’ve helped you and be generous with compliments. It won’t kill you, generally others won’t remember what you’ve done as much as how you made them feel.
    40. Be specific. This manifests itself in lots of ways from reflecting the client’s problem back to being single-minded in a brief given to creatives. Specificity is its own form of clarity.
    41. Listen more than you speak. Good advice for life, not just strategy.
    42. Write a list. Lists are useful brainstorming device, but they are also really useful for self-organisation. Post-it notes are your friends.
    43. Write a stream of consciousness and be prepared to cut and paste it around to organise your thoughts rather like ‘fridge magnet poetry’.
    44. Give yourself 10 minutes to write the clearest answer you can think of. Simplify it in a few seconds with generative AI. Then feel ok that you’ll probably need time to get to a simpler one and remain better when the obvious simplification comes from colleagues.
    45. If it feels obvious, stick with it. This reminded me of Dieter Rams principles of design which extend well beyond design and into problem solving and life in general:
      • Good design is innovative
      • Good design makes a product useful
      • Good design is aesthetic
      • Good design makes a product understandable
      • Good design is unobtrusive
      • Good design is honest
      • Good design is long-lasting
      • Good design is thorough down to the last detail
      • Good design is as little design as possible
    46. Say your argument out loud. This is part of pressure-testing your own thinking. It’s also something that generative AI services can help with as both devil’s advocate and to ‘steel man’ your own ideas.
    47. Admit when you are wrong. Being wrong isn’t bad, it’s part of the learning process and will help you get to better ideas. A former colleague of mine used to talk about being interesting as more important than being right – there are traps in that statement but also something powerful in it.
    48. Say “sorry” when you have to. Sorry is a powerful disarming tool. It helps you get to both interesting and right faster.
    49. Assume the work has been thought through. Just because you don’t get it, it doesn’t mean that others haven’t come up with some interesting ideas. And even if it hasn’t been thought through quite as well as you like, what’s the lesson that can be derived from it all?
    50. Ask questions without judgement. There are no dumb questions, just people who are left dumber due to unanswered questions.
    51. Find reasons to build on things. I found this a bit weird when I first entered agency life. Previously I had worked in the chemical industry, which was regimented and compartmentalised in the way work was done. College was very much about individual effort to complete assignments and essays. Build on this was something that I found female colleagues used to do really well. I remember being sat in a meeting and watch each person play a reverse ‘pass the parcel’ game with an idea. When it came to say their bit in a ‘brainstorm’ they would acknowledge what had been previously said and provide their own innovation as an additional wrapper. It won pitches and increased group cohesion.
    52. Focus on agreeing a direction, not winning arguments. While you were winning the argument, you could have been getting insights to help set that direction in the ideas.
    53. Build a robust strategy rather than a perfect strategy. A strategy that isn’t implemented for a client, may as well not exist. A robust strategy can be optimised based on what happens in the market. The perfect strategy may not even get to market.
    54. Be useful. If a meeting needs coffee or printing off handouts and you can do them. People may not remember what you’ve done but how you make them feel and putting them at ease when hellsapoppin’.
    55. Say you have a clash – leave it at that. Much of what happens inside agencies runs on implicit guilt. Avoid that guilt by saying less, being prepared to not fill silences and don’t explain diary clashes.
    56. When you have nothing to do, read. Well learn at the very least, our world and what’s demanded of us is always changing. Do a course read an article, a book chapter or listen to an audio book.
    57. If you’re tired of reading, write. I find writing very powerful. The process of writing helps me work things out from opinions to problem solving.
    58. If you’re tired of writing, go for a walk. I was working on a brief prior to writing this post and walked from Whitechapel station home. I let my mind wander and I got the central concept of the insight by not thinking about it during that hour’s walk.
    59. If you’re tired of walking, take a nap. Burn out is real, it’s got even worse with project management tools that overburden strategy teams.
    60. If in doubt, try out the Oblique Strategies. Back in 1975, electronic musician Brian Eno and multimedia artist Peter Schmidt came up with what we’d call in advertising provocations. They are particularly useful in trying to break through a mental block. You have a 100 cards about the size of a playing card in a box. Read it, think about it, have a break and come back to it and ask how it can be applied to your problem. There is also an iPhone version of it, but there is something about the tactility of the cards.
    61. Have a healthy snack of choice – our changing workloads chained to messaging apps rather than getting out and interviewing people in focus groups has amplified the need for this advice. I would go further and say avoid the ‘pitch pizza’ – the lowest common denominator selections provided by agencies to fuel the late night efforts of its pitch teams. I have turned to trail mix, zero sugar energy drinks and even Huel at a push instead.
    62. Break your own rules. A former colleague that I worked with at Yahoo! used to talk about ‘guidelines, not tramlines’. Breaking your own rules is about understanding why you have the rule and making a creative choice. Usually rules speed up decision-making.
    63. Make different mistakes. We learn from mistakes, there is a value in them if you think about things in terms of a scientific methodology. But, there is nothing to be gained from making the same mistakes.
    64. Interesting is more important than right, I alluded to this earlier but it deserves its own explanation. Interesting sparks discussions that help get to further insights. This comes from remaining constantly curious and holding a strong point-of-view. As for views, hold on tightly unless there is good evidence to the contrary and then be prepared to let go lightly. This is where I again tell you are more than your job, one of the main ideas it is important to convey in a list like this.
    65. Have a copywriter as an ally. Working on my last brief I had got to the the human insight, but I couldn’t land the concept in a sufficiently resonant way. Going back-and-forth with the copywriter got us there.
    66. Have other strategists as allies. They have walked similar journeys to you and might see things that you are too close on to notice. One of the greatest aspects of working with great strategists is the collegiate attitude to ideas and generosity of thoughts.
    67. Network internally. You would think that work would shine through, but the reality is most people won’t remember what you did. Secondly, that internal networking helps understand the context that your work exists within. Finally, the internal network you have will eventually become scattered across the industry and even client side, opening up potential future opportunities.
    68. Develop an aesthetic. I was fortunate to grow up in a house that wasn’t wealthy in terms of money, but was wealthy in terms of ideas. Part of it was down to reading and part of it was down my Dad’s deep sense of quality. I would love to say that we had less but better in terms of consumption, but we didn’t – there are no Vitra or Eames designed furnishings at my parents house. The closest I have to it is the refurbished first generation Herman Miller Aeron chair I am sitting on and vintage Ikea birch bookcase – rather than their more commonplace MDF pieces. Much of my furniture is gifted or upcycled. My sofa, was originally from the 1970s, my Dad reupholstered it and rebuilt the frame based on materials he had left over from doing his own motor caravan conversion of a Volkswagen (Typ 28) LT-35 van. The sense of quality gave me the confidence to explore my own taste in design, art, literature and cinema. Taste and a sense of what’s important is becoming more important in strategy and the creative industries.
  • May 2025 newsletter

    May 2025 introduction – two little ducks (22) edition

    Welcome to my May 2025 newsletter, this newsletter marks my 22nd issue. 22 is known in bingo halls and the Spanish national lottery as two little ducks.

    Double Duck

    In France, 22 is the equivalent of 5-0 in the English speaking world as slang for the police. 22 is an important number for people who believe in numerology. In Hong Kong, 22 is associated with good fortune. This is down to the number sounding similar to ‘easy’ or ‘bright’ in Cantonese.

    I hope that you are tricked into thinking I am bright based this newsletter, so let’s jump in. Inspired by catching up with my old DJing partner Griff, this month I enjoyed the unashamedly joyous pumped-up sounds of Blackpool’s AZYR at the Boiler Room x TeleTech Festival in 2023. In particular the transition at the end of the set between Frankyeffe – Save me and Infectious! – I need your lovin’. (Extra trainspotter points if you knew that Infectious! is a homage / remake of N.R.G’s The Real Hardcore from a year earlier). Wear your headphones, it might be divisive playing the set out loud in the office. More bangers from AZYR here.

    New reader?

    If this is the first newsletter, welcome! You can find my regular writings here and more about me here

    Strategic outcomes

    Things I’ve written.

    • Predicting market share through share of search volume and what the rise of AI likely means.
    • Reaching a precipice in hydrogen power and trends in Chinese skincare amongst other things.

    Books that I have read.

    • Careless People by Sarah Wynn Williams. Williams account of her time in Facebook had become the most discussed book of the spring in my social circle. I wrote a long review of it here.
    The Road to Conscious Machines
    • The Road to Conscious Machines by Michael Wooldridge examines the profound cultural impact of generative AI, which is currently experiencing a surge in both its cultural influence and practical applications. Drawing parallels to the internet’s transformative impact in the mid-to-late 1990s, where it permeated various aspects of society and fostered rapid adoption, Wooldridge traces the evolution of generative AI as a phenomenon that emerged gradually over the past half-century. Throughout the book, Wooldridge provides a comprehensive historical overview of AI, including the periods of research stagnation known as AI winters. This historical perspective equips readers with a nuanced understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of AI, enabling them to approach AI adoption with a well-informed perspective.
    • As I finish this newsletter during the bank holiday weekend, my light reading is Rogue Asset by Andy McDermott. McDermott comes from a long line of British authors like Jack Higgins, Len Deighton, Frederick Forsyth and Mick Herron who provide novels aimed at a shrinking pool of readers – men. At least, if one is to believe what’s said in the media. Rogue Asset hinges on the premise that the UK has a unit which assassinates the countries enemies on a regular basis. Think somewhere between The Troubles era Det and the modern deep state trope. Our hero is snared into the plot by being discovered on the run thanks to his online behaviour – which is attributed to GCHQ; (but isn’t as mysterious as it sounds because of the programmatic advertising technology stack). So far so good for what it is. I will let know if it goes downhill as a read next month.

    Things I have been inspired by.

    Mmrytok

    Limitations are often the mother of invention. That seems to be the theory behind mmrytok. Mmrytok allows you to do one post a day. It doesn’t support HTML formatting, it doesn’t allow you to link out and doesn’t have a newsfeed. So it’s easy-to-use because it’s less sophisticated than Geocities was. In this respect it is to social media and blogs what Punkt is to smartphones. In an always-on social time, I have found it liberating to use. You can see my page here. I heard of Mmrytok thanks to Matt Muir’s great newsletter Web Curios.

    No, AI isn’t making you dumber

    Australian documentary maker ColdFusion put together an interesting video essay on How AI is making you dumber.

    Yes, you could argue that under certain attributes the population isn’t as smart as they have been in the past. Just last month I shared an article by John Burn-Murdoch. In the article he shared data of a longitudinal trend across countries and age-groups struggling with concentration, declining verbal and numerical reasoning. The problem with Burn-Murdoch’s article vis-a-vis the ColdFusion video is the timeline.

    His article charts a decline further back than the rise of generative AI services. Mia Levitin in an essay for the FT attributed the decline in reading to the quick dopamine hits of social media content.

    A college professor interviewed by The Atlantic put the decline in reading amongst his undergraduate students put it down to a practice in secondary education of atomising content. Pupils in high schools were assigned excerpts, poetry and news articles to read, but not complete books. This has impacted the size of vocabulary and grasp of language that students starting university now have.

    James Gleick

    This isn’t new territory, James Gleick in his book Faster documented the massive acceleration of information through the late 20th century and its effects on the general public. The underlying accelerant was described by Kevin Kelly in What Technology Wants as the technium – a continuous forward progress due to a massively interconnected system of technology.

    There were concerns in research as far back as the late 1980s that television could be adversely affecting children’s reading comprehension and attention spans.

    TL;DR – with generative AI you could become dumber, if you use it unwisely – but the problem lies with all of us and what we chose to do with our personal agency.

    CIA advertise for Chinese spies

    The CIA commissioned a couple of high production value adverts that they’ve been running on social media channels. The adverts are designed to encourage Chinese government employees to come forward as an agent. The sales pitch is about taking control.

    CIA China advert

    A translation of the Chinese tagline: ‘The reason for choosing cooperation: to become the master of (one’s own) destiny‘. More details from the FT about the campaign here, and here’s the two executions currently running on YouTube.

    It remains to be seen if the campaign will be effective. The Chinese Ministry of State Security managed to roll-up the CIA’s spy network back in 2010-2012. Up to 30 informants in China were executed.

    Montirex

    montirex

    Merseyside sports-inspired lifestyle brand Montirex have published a film telling the brand story from its origins to the present day. The brand is expanding beyond its Merseyside roots to get national and international sales.

    Trust, attitudes and use of artificial intelligence

    A 2025 global study covering some 48 countries was conducted by KPMG in association with the University of Melbourne. Some key insights from the report. Consumer generative AI is being used instead of enterprise options by workers. Generative AI adopters still have self-perceived low AI skills but that doesn’t slow their adoption. There is higher adoption and trust rates in emerging markets than in developed markets.

    Pro and anti-trust AI issues solidifying

    Year-on-year we are seeing an increase in both distrust and trust for specific AI use cases, indicating that it is becoming a polarising subject. The lowest trust levels is in tech-savvy Finland. More here.

    Chart of the month. 

    McDonald’s Restaurants saw a decline in sales. This was down to low income consumers spending less, while middle class earners still weren’t going into McDonalds. Normally when there is a recession, McDonalds should benefit from the more well-off trading down to McDonalds. Instead, fortunes have diverged into a ‘k-shaped’ recession. Lower income earners are hit, while middle classes aren’t. What Axios called the ‘McRecession‘.

    McDonald's quarterly sales growth

    Things I have watched. 

    Tony Arzenta (also known as Big Guns). The film is an early 1970s gallo film. French star Alain Delon appears in this classic retribution story based in Milan. As Tony Arzenta, Delon exacts revenge on the former bosses who killed his family by accident in a botched assassination attempt to prevent him from retiring.The film uses a wintry Milan as a good atmospheric backdrop for the action that plays out in a series of shoot-outs and car chases. It’s John Wick before it was even conceived. Delon brings a tension that other stars of the era like Charles Bronson failed to do in similar roles. As Arzenta’s targets flee across Europe, he goes through Germany and Denmark to catch up with them.

    Sansho the Bailiff – as a film Sansho the Bailiff comes encumbered with a weight of praise. It is highly rated by film critics and Martin Scorsese had it as one of his must-watch films for young film makers. Director Kenji Mizoguchi assembled an ensemble cast of Japanese actors to tell a story of family hardship and poverty. Kazuo Miyagawa is key to the the production, providing a signature look to the cinematography. There is a tension between the emotional rollercoaster of the story and the reflective nature of the scenes portrayed – I don’t want to say too more, except that even the character actors like Kikue Môri (who plays a pivotal role in the plot as a priestess) are amazing in the film.

    Warfare – I was a bit leery of watching Alex Garland’s Warfare after watching Civil War which was strong on aesthetics and emotion, but weak in terms of the creative conceits involved in making the story work. Warfare is the collective accounts of a US military unit during a two-hour fire fight. The story is told from multiple perspectives in real-time. The film captures the stress and boredom of inaction as well as what you would normally expect from this kind of film.

    Useful tools.

    Reddit Answers

    Reddit Answers – alternative to Gigabrain that I recommended back in March. Like Gigabrain, Reddit Answers looks like the kind of knowledge search product that we failed to build at Yahoo! twenty years ago (or NORA as Microsoft has been calling the concept for the past few years). Reddit Answers is powered by Google Vertex AI.

    Process online data like its peak web 2.0 all over again

    While WordPress installations come with RSS enabled as standard and is something that can then be disabled, many types of sites aren’t RSS enabled. And where they are the web devs will often disable it just because. RSS app will create an RSS feed for websites that don’t have it. This allows you to pull it into data processing using something like Pipes. RSS app starts at $9.99 per month and goes up to $99.99 a month. Pipes starts at free and goes up to $79 per month.

    The sales pitch.

    I am currently working on a brand and creative strategy engagement at Google’s internal creative agency.

    now taking bookings

    I am now taking bookings for strategic engagements in Q4 (October) – keep me in mind; or discussions on permanent roles. Contact me here.

    More on what I have done here.

    bit.ly_gedstrategy

    The End.

    Ok this is the end of my May 2025 newsletter, I hope to see you all back here again in a month. Be excellent to each other and onward into spring, and I hope you enjoyed the last bank holiday until August.

    Don’t forget to share if you found it useful, interesting or insightful.

    Get in touch if there is anything that you’d like to recommend for the newsletter.

  • Hydrogen power + more things

    Hydrogen power

    Hydrogen power and hydrogen fuel cells have been around for decades. Hydrogen power fuel cells as an invention were invented in the 19th century. The modern hydrogen fuel cell was refined before the second world war and have been used in NASA’s space programme since Project Apollo. The space programme’s use of hydrogen power inspired General Motors to create a hydrogen fuel cell powered van in 1966. By the late 1980s, BMW had developed a hydrogen-powered engine which it trialled in its 7-series vehicles a decade later.

    2016_Toyota_Fuel_Cell_Vehicle (11)

    By the mid-2010s there were four hydrogen power passenger cars using fuel cells: Honda Clarity, Toyota Mirai, Hyundai ix35 FCEV, and the Hyundai Nexo. BMW is collaborating with Toyota to launch another four models next year.

    2021 Toyota Mirai

    In addition in commercial vehicles and heavy plant Hyundai, Cummins and JCB have hydrogen power offerings. JCB and Cummins have focused on internal combustion engines, while Hyundai went with hydrogen fuel cells. The aviation industry has been looking to hydrogen power via jet turbines.

    Hydrogen power offers greater energy density and lower weight than batteries. Unlike batteries or power lines, hydrogen can be transported over longer distances via tanker. So someplace like Ireland with wind and tidal power potential could become an energy exporter.

    The key hydrogen power problem has been investment in infrastructure and an over-reliance on batteries. Batteries bring their own set of problems and a global strategic dependency on China.

    Toyota is now warning that if there isn’t imminent international investment, that China will also dominate the supply chain, exports and energy generation in the hydrogen economy as well. It feels like me reaching a historic point of no return.

    Swiss Researchers May Have Solved Hydrogen Storage | Hackaday

    Aviation industry calls for UK investment in hydrogen fuel | FT

    Hydrogen, take two | Axios What’s Next

    Hydrogen-powered drones could fly longer, farther | Axios

    The Japanese Companies Pursuing a Hydrogen Economy – The Diplomat

    Japan Recommits to the Hydrogen Society – Akihabara News

    A Chicken and Egg Problem: How Germany’s Hydrogen Boom Stalled – DER SPIEGEL

    Lex in depth: the staggering cost of a green hydrogen economy | Financial Times

    UK at risk of falling behind in race to become green hydrogen global leader, Johnson Matthey says | Business News | Sky News

    Alexander Brown on how industrial policy adds momentum to China’s push into hydrogen | Merics

    Hyundai Rolls out Big Hydrogen Truck – The Chosun Ilbo

    Japan Announces Roadmap for Hydrogen Introduction | Nikkei TechOn

    Beauty

    Skincare you can wear: China’s sunwear boom | Jing DailyA jacket with a wide-brim hood and built-in face shield. Leggings infused with hyaluronic acid to hydrate while shielding skin from the sun. Face masks with chin-to-temple coverage. Ice-cooling gloves designed to drop skin temperature. In China, UV protection apparel isn’t just functional — it’s fashionable, dermatological, and high-tech. Once a niche category for hikers or extreme sports enthusiasts, China’s sunwear market has exploded into a $13 billion category blending climate adaptation, anti-aging culture, and the outdoor lifestyle wave. While other apparel segments slow, the sunwear sector is projected to reach nearly 95.8 billion RMB ($13.5 billion) by 2026 expanding at a CAGR of 9%, according to iResearch.

    Business

    Online disrupters challenge traditional MBA providers | FT

    What’s the winning strategy in China’s “low-trust” society? – low trust driving a lack of M&A and vertical integration

    China

    China is trying to kneecap Indian manufacturing – Asia Times – China trying to starve India and the Philippines of inbound investment through coercion on Chinese and multinational companies

    Collapse of Chinese-built high rise spurs wave of anger in Thailand

    Consumer behaviour

    Have humans passed peak brain power? | FT

    Buy European: a new shopping movement takes hold | Trendwatching

    Hot girl economy | Substack

    Bachelors Without Bachelor’s: Gender Gaps in Education and Declining Marriage Rates – interesting US-focused paper, but I expect that the findings would be mirrored far more widely

    AI and the New Impostor Syndrome | Psychology Today & Overreliance on AI tools at work risks harming mental health | FT

    Culture

    An unexpected link between Hong Kong’s Louis Cha ‘Jin Yong’ and Labubu doll | South China Morning Post

    Design

    Volkswagen reintroducing physical controls for vital functions | Autocar – VW’s design chief commits to “never” repeating the “mistake” of relegating essential controls to touchscreens

    Economics

    U.S. Tariffs: China shows the Rare Earth Nuke, the Detailed Rules; EU keeps Worst Projects out; Carester’s numbers don’t tally; Victory’s Self-Defeat; and more.

    Why does Britain feel so poor? – by M. F. Robbins

    The Three Tariff Problem – by Doug O’Laughlin & American Disruption – Stratechery by Ben Thompson

    White House slams Amazon tariff price display “hostile and political” | Axios

    FMCG

    TVB News| 29 Apr 2025 | Soft meal of classic HK dishes launched for people with chewing difficulties – YouTube – Hong Kong’s aging population is promoting innovation in FMCG categories including food

    Finance

    Y Combinator founders raising less money signals a ‘vibe shift,’ VC says | TechCrunch & A quarter of YC’s latest startups are letting AI write 95% of their code | This Week In Start-ups (TWIST)

    Daring Fireball: Costco Only Accepts Visa Credit Cards

    Portrait of the Trader as a Young Rebel | Jacobin

    Gadgets

    iRobot made Roomba into an icon. Now, it’s in a huge mess – Fast Company

    Health

    China’s obesity crisis is big business | FT

    Zyn and the New Nicotine Gold Rush | The New Yorker

    Hong Kong

    MACAU DAILY TIMES 澳門每日時報Beware of Li Kashing’s supersized value trapBut as the initial excitement starts to fade, investors are growing nervous, wary of a billionaire family that has a poor track record on shareholders’ returns. The Li clan takes pride in the myriad of businesses and markets it operates in. But what kind of value-add can a diversified conglomerate offer when globalization is out of favor and geopolitical risks are on the rise? CK’s de-rating has accelerated since Trump’s first term, with the stock trading at just 35% of its book value even after the recent share bump. The complex business dealings have made enterprise valuation an impossible task. In a sign of deep capital market skepticism, CK seems to have trouble monetizing its assets. Its health and beauty subsidiary A.S. Watson is still privately-held, a decade after postponing an ambitious $6 billion dual listing in Hong Kong and London. Softer consumer sentiment in China, once a growth market, has become a drag. Last summer, CK Infrastructure did a secondary listing in the UK, hoping to widen its investor base. – Rare direct criticism of CK Hutchison’s conglomerate discount.

    Why some mainland Chinese turn their back on HK after getting top talent visas | Hong Kong Free Press

    McDonald’s Admiralty Station location just got a vibey redesign – Fast Company

    Innovation

    DeepSeek founder says China AI will stop following U.S. – Nikkei Asia

    US Weather Agency Websites Set to Vanish With Contract Cuts – Bloomberg – NOAA Research related content. Sites were housed on Google Cloud, Amazon Web Services and WordPress

    Japan

    Ghost in the Shell’s Creator Wants to Revisit the Anime, But There’s One ProblemProduction I.G’s CEO Mitsuhisa Ishikawa—who produced both Ghost in the Shell films—spoke at the event. Ishikawa revealed a key obstacle preventing a third film: finances. He explained that Innocence had an enormous budget, estimated at around 2 billion yen (approximately $13 million), with profits reaching a similar figure. However, the film was planned with a ten-year financial recovery period, and even after 20 years, it has yet to break even.

    Jargon watch

    Typing loudly, wearing AirPods: ‘taskmasking’ is how gen Z pretends to work at the office | US work & careers | The Guardian – One example of taskmasking: moving quickly though the office while carrying a laptop or clipboard – straight out of a West Wing walk-and-talk. Another example: typing loudly, like a DMV employee having a bad day, even if what you’re typing has no relevance to your job.

    The Mainframe Vocabulary Problem (And Why It Matters) | Mainframe Society

    Is DEI a Racial Slur? Rise in Term Outrages Black Americans | Newsweek

    Luxury

    Rolex, A Love-Hate Relationship – Watches of Espionage

    ‘Gucci’s 25% sales collapse should shock no one’ | Jing Daily“Gucci is so boring now.” “They’ve lost all their confidence.” “It feels desperate — just influencers and celebrities.” Comparing Gucci’s bold, visionary eras under Tom Ford and Alessandro Michele and today’s safe, uninspired iteration reveals a stark contrast. That classroom moment reflected a broader truth: Gucci’s Q1 2025 is not a temporary dip. It’s the result of a deeper structural identity crisis — arguably one of the worst brand resets in recent luxury history.

    Online

    Common Crawl – Open Repository of Web Crawl Data

    AI Overviews Reduce Clicks by 34.5% | Ahrefs

    ‘We Were Wrong’: An Oral History of WIRED’s Original Website | WIRED

    Security

    EU: These are scary times – let’s backdoor encryption! • The Register

    Rafts of Security Bugs Could Rain Out Solar Grids

    Suspected Chinese snoops hijacking buggy Ivanti gear — again • The Register – cracked VPN appliances

    An Open Letter to Third-Party Suppliers | JP Morgan Chase

    Software

    Amazon can now buy products from other websites for you | The Verge

    Technology

    China-developed EUV lithography could trial in 2025 | EE News Europe and China’s EUV breakthrough: Huawei, SMIC reportedly advancing LDP lithography, eye 3Q25 trial, 2026 rollout | DigiTimes

    IBM plans US$150 billion spend to catch quantum computing wave EE News Europe

    Thailand

    Travel and T-pop fuel Thai beauty boom in China | Jing Daily – one of the brands doing well is Mistine.

    Wireless

    How our stolen mobile phones end up in an Algerian market | The Times and The Sunday Times – interesting that they are going to Algeria rather than China

  • Luxury wellness

    The rise of luxury wellness comes down to a convergence of different factors that have reshaped both the luxury and wellness industries.

    • Products ain’t what they used to be
    • Existing high-end health and luxury wellness
    • Luxury wellness and consumer behaviours
    • Wellness has become blended with health, providing opportunities for luxury brands.
    • GLP-1 changed everything

    Products ain’t what they used to be

    Before we dive into luxury wellness, it’s helpful to understand where the luxury industry stands at the moment. The strategies that have worked since the early 1980s now seem to have come unstuck. To make sense of this shift, it’s worth reviewing the past and current landscape.

    The new luxury

    There’s a perception (which I believe is largely false) that the traditional attributes of luxury have fallen by the wayside. Scarcity, quality, craftsmanship, design, and heritage are thought to no longer matter.

    A classic example of this viewpoint is Jaguar’s attempt to discard its heritage and reinvent itself as something new. I would argue that while Jaguar may have been prestigious in automotive terms, it was never truly a luxury brand. Jaguars suffered from quality issues that should not have occurred, and they struggled in the premium segment of the market, remaining loss-making for years. Whether or not Jaguar will succeed in transforming into an electric competitor to Rolls-Royce remains to be seen.

    Another aspect to consider is how global supply chains can now deliver products of comparable quality to those made by artisans. I have a bit more sympathy for this viewpoint. However, these global supply chains were originally trained to act as subcontractors for luxury brands that pursued massification, cutting quality standards along the way.

    Consumers seem to undergo a ‘luxury maturity journey’. This journey is accelerating in certain markets. What Japan experienced over 30 years, China went through in just 10. Countries like Thailand are even moving through this journey faster. Over time, consumers in these markets have begun to move away from obvious logos and status symbols to place greater value on quality and experiences. This shift partly explains why quiet luxury is gained traction around the world.

    In countries like China and India, local artisans and ateliers are highly appreciated. This shift means that historic luxury brands are likely to face disruption, just as other sectors have been transformed by Chinese firms. And this is happening at a time when many luxury brands are becoming less ‘luxurious’ by opting for a global mass-market approach.

    The pioneer in this approach was fashion designer Pierre Cardin.

    Pioneer Pierre Cardin

    Luxury went downmarket through licensing, a strategy pioneered by fashion designer Pierre Cardin. In the early 1970s, he saw the potential of licensing, recognising that the demand for goods bearing a fashionable name presented a lucrative opportunity. Cardin’s insight was that luxury goods, in the post-war economic boom, were no longer only for the ultra-wealthy but also for the middle class. His brand signed over 850 agreements in 140+ countries, covering everything from clothing and accessories to furniture, household products, cars, and fragrances.

    The ubiquity of Pierre Cardin products diluted scarcity, quality, and blurred the brand story. He later repeated this process with French restaurant Maxim’s, demonstrating that luxury was as much about experience as it was about the product.

    1981 Evolution I by Pierre Cardin

    When you could buy a Pierre Cardin wallet or suitcase from Argos, what did it say about you? It certainly wasn’t a great status symbol. Other brands, like Ralph Lauren, did a better job of choosing their licensees.

    LVMH leads the way

    Bernard Arnault supercharged a formula for Louis Vuitton that Henry Racamier had pioneered when he built out an international network of Louis Vuitton-owned boutiques, including Tokyo and Osaka, Japan by 1978.

    Racamier’s formula consisted of two parts:

    • Louis Vuitton sold to the middle class as well as the very wealthy.
    • Louis Vuitton controlled its products route to market offering control over the experience, premium pricing and perceived aspects of scarcity.

    For the next four decades, LVMH went on a remarkable growth trajectory, acquiring luxury and beauty brands, duty-free retail, and even hotels. LVMH rode the rise of Japan, up to the end of the bubble economy, then moved on to Korea, Singapore, and Hong Kong. China’s luxury market skyrocketed when the country joined the WTO, solidifying its place in the global economy.

    The United States continued to be a steady consumer of luxury products.

    During the 1990s, French retailer Pinault-Printemps-Redoute (PPR), now known as Kering, began replicating LVMH’s success, starting its own luxury conglomerate with the acquisition of Gucci in 1999. Meanwhile, Richemont acquired a number of legacy luxury brands as an adjunct to its predecessor’s tobacco business in the early 1990s and then continued to build.

    The internet expanded access to luxury products through multi-brand retailers like Net-A-Porter and Farfetch, driving significant growth. These online retailers competed with top-tier department stores like Bon Marché, Lane Crawford, and Harrods, who slowly built up their e-commerce capabilities.

    Eventually, brands embraced direct-to-consumer online stores to complement their global networks of boutiques. This shift is why newer mass-market multi-brand online boutiques have struggled:

    • Matchesfashion went into administration and took Browns with it.
    • Farfetch was sold in a firesale to Korean e-tailer Coupang.
    • YOOX was merged with Net-A-Porter and eventually bought out by MyTheresa from Richemont.

    Even luxury brands themselves have encountered a few hurdles along the way:

    • The end of Japan’s asset bubble in 1992
    • 2008 financial crisis
    • Xi Jinping’s move towards common prosperity which peaked in campaigns during 2013 & 2021
    • COVID-19 and post-COVID economy

    Luxury sector fallout

    By mid-2023, the luxury industry started to show signs of stagnation, with low or no growth. Multi-brand luxury e-commerce sites either went bankrupt or were bought out. A few notable beneficiaries included:

    • Mytheresa – a German e-tailer that focused on the wealthiest clients in this sector rather than broader middle class appeal.
    • Hermès – who are focused on the high end of the luxury market.
    • Brunello Cucinelli – a focused ‘quiet luxury’ brand known for their high-end cashmere garments

    The key issue with many luxury brands (Burberry being a prime example) is that they lost the essence of what made them truly luxurious. As they shifted from style to fashion, and from artisan craftsmanship to mass production in China, they lost their uniqueness or incomparability as Jean-Noël Kapferer put it.

    While champagne can only come from the region around Reims, most Burberry products are made in China, with only two remaining factories in the UK, including a textile mill.

    The key issue with many luxury brands (Burberry being a prime example) is that they lost the essence of what made them truly luxurious.  As they moved from style to fashion, and, artisan to Made In China – they lost uniqueness or incomparability as Jean-Noël Kapferer would describe it.

    While champagne can only come from the region around the city of Reims, most Burberry products are made in China as well as a couple of remaining factories in the UK – one of which is a textile mill.

    Louis Vuitton x Supreme on the secondary market

    A second aspect of the change was blurring the line between streetwear and luxury brands. Luxury looked cheap and streetwear looked exceptionally premium. The nadir was Balenciaga’s collaboration with sports apparel brand Under Armour.

    Ways forward

    Given that the mass growth of luxury products has hit a ceiling, what options do luxury companies have?

    The focus has been a slow pivot to services and experiences. For instance, Panerai has the Panerai Xperience Programme where purchasing a limited edition watch gives you access to unique experiences, such as training with US or Italian special forces operators.

    LVMH owns three luxury hotel chains: Cheval Blanc, Bulgari Hotels & Resorts, and Belmond. Dior has spas in Cheval Blanc Paris and other non-LVMH hotels like The Dorchester in London. The increasing focus on wellness makes sense for luxury conglomerates.

    Given the challenging circumstances in the luxury sector, Infosys’ outlook for luxury wellness presents a tempting opportunity. The global premium and luxury wellness segments have been performing well. The global market for luxury items was valued at approximately $366.2 billion in 2023 and is projected to expand at a CAGR of 6.8% from 2024. By comparison the Swiss watch industry is projected to grow by less than three percent.

    Existing high-end health and luxury wellness

    Luxury wellness has already been well established, there high end spas and resorts are in numerous countries, in particular Switzerland and Germany. Some of these are within large hotel groups like Mandarin Oriental.

    There is also a range of multi-generation family owned businesses with low-key brands and expertise that would be hard to replicate. Some of these businesses may go back as far as the middle ages. For instance, Grand Resort Bad Ragaz can trace its history as a source of ‘health and vitality’ since 1242.

    German doctor Alexander Spengler was responsible for attracting rich medical tourists to Switzerland in 1853, convinced of the benefits of clean mountain air.

    Switzerland, in particular, started to benefit from an agglomeration of medical expertise; for instance Davos was known for specialising in pulmonary health with dedicated spas.

    Switzerland’s continued lead in private healthcare has had a positive knock-on effect in wellness related products and services. This is particularly apropos given Swiss offerings focusing on longevity.

    In marketing terms ‘Swiss formula’ is used to sell St Ive’s beauty products and a range of multi-vitamin products by various brands. St Ives has an American origin, being part of Alberto Culver, which was then bought by Unilever.

    While Spengler was enamoured with Switzerland, Germany has a long history of health resorts especially thermal spas. It also has a network of world-leading private medical clinics similar to Switzerland.

    German high-end health resort company Lanserhof is a relative newcomer. Over four decades they have progressively built their offering with a strong focus on longevity.

    Luxury conglomerates have an opportunity, and are used to accumulating small family brands. But it it is a long term project for them to go into the market place. Blurring the line between its beauty products and wellness is an easier ask, hence, Dior’s spa offering.

    Gulf countries are looking to provide services in this area and have made big strides in building capability to attract medical tourism, which is the backbone from which a country brand in luxury wellness can be built.

    The current luxury wellness space is diverse fragmented and caters for a wide range of health needs from medical to relaxation.

    Luxury wellness and consumer behaviours

    More people are prioritising their health, taking a holistic view to wellness encompassing both physical, emotional and mental health, what Statista described as ‘omni-wellness’. They are driving demand for products and experiences that support this lifestyle. This includes everything from exercise, self-care, and sobriety to getting private tests run to double-check, or instead of seeing their doctor.

    Coming out of COVID-19, there was an increased consumer focus on a number of different aspects of health and wellness:

    • Sleep quality
    • Mental health
    • ‘Immune’ health

    This intersects with the luxury market as consumers are willing to invest in premium products and services that enhance their well-being.

    On the high-end what does luxury wellness look like?

    • Personalised wellness experiences. Consumers look for customised solutions based on their individual wants and needs. Technology and data enabled brands like L’Oreal and Unilever to offer individual recommendations and drive consumer engagement. Technology integration has been a key enabler.
    • Health and beauty interconnection. Consumers spend more in products and experiences that enhance their well-being, these are opportunities for the premium and luxury industries. Consumers see well-being products and experiences as an investment in themselves, with the concepts health and beauty as inseparable in their minds, particularly for younger cohorts.
    • Scientifically-backed products rather than more ‘new age’ or alternative therapies. Consumers have increased interest in beauty innovations that leverage technology and scientific evidence to address their needs. There is a latent demand for evidence around the world, Mintel cited 85% of Indian consumers agreed that beauty brands should provide more scientific evidence to validate their claims. This is notable given the rise over the past decade of guru Baba Ramdev and his brand Patanjali Ayurved that sells traditional products in the personal care category.
    • Longevity. Silicon Valley has been obsessed with longevity, the go-to example being Bryan Johnson. Kantar claims that a desire for longevity has moved beyond Silicon Valley. Consumers are prioritising longevity; looking for preventative solutions that support wellness at every life stage. This presents opportunities to offer products and services that for specific age-related concerns.

    But medicince itself has thrown up a wildcard for the luxury sector including luxury wellness.

    GLP-1 changed everything for luxury

    I worked on the global launch of a weight management drug that went on to become used more by the rich and famous than the people it was intended for. If I had one a-ha moment, it occurred during an episode of South Park.

    “Rich people get Ozempic, poor people get body positivity”

    The rate of growth in these drugs is slowing down but not before GLP-1s had affected consumption habits. Size inclusivity that had been making progress in fashion was thrown into reverse.

    There is anecdotal evidence that GLP-1 drugs don’t only change the patient’s relationship with food, but also affects enjoyment in general. This has hit premium alcohol sales and high-end restaurants. The idea of ‘lack of desire’ has implications for the concept of luxury in general.

    Every trend has a counter-indicator

    Trends are never a clean absolute truth. There is almost a Newtonian push in the opposite direction. Political and socially progressive movements begat a corresponding reactionary movement based around online personalities and political populism.

    It would be remiss of me if I only showed you one side of the coin on luxury wellness. Haines McGregor have a perspective that claims that self-care has been replaced by indulgence, which feels at odds with the direction of travel for luxury wellness. Examples of indulgent brands include:

    More information

    Pierre Cardin, designer who transformed fashion in the 1960s, dies at 98 | Washington Post

    How luxury brands can stand out when craft becomes a commodity | WARC

    China’s beauty market is a sight for sore eyes | FT

    LVMH quarterly sales drop as luxury group warns of ‘uncertain’ outlook | FT

    Ferrari, Hermès lead global luxury brand growth in 2024: Interbrand | Luxury Daily

    Deluxe – how luxury lost its lustre written by Dana Thomas

    Kapferer on Luxury: How Luxury Brands Can Grow Yet Remain Rare written by Jean-Noël Kapferer

    Is it stylish to be fit? | FT

    How luxury priced itself out of the market | FT

    The Vogue Business Spring/Summer 2025 size inclusivity report | Vogue Business – GLP-1s blamed for stalled progress

    Hermès chief eyes haute couture push as Paris house rides out luxury gloom

    Burberry shares tumble to 15-year low amid questions over its luxury brand status – Retail Gazette

    The Collectability of Parmigiani Fleurier | Phillips

    How ‘luxury shame’ will shape sales in China for the rest of 2024 | Vogue Business

    Where to start with multisensory marketing | WARC – 61% of consumers looking for brands that can “ignite intense emotions”. Immersive experiences that are holistic tap into people’s emotions and linger in the memory. It’s also an opportunity for using powerful storytelling to communicate a brand story.

    How Ozempic is reshaping the resale market | Vogue Business – Poshmark’s data reveals a significant surge in plus-size women’s apparel listings on the platform over the past two years, including a 103 per cent increase in size 3XL listings, 80 per cent in size 4XL, and a 73 per cent rise in size 5XL. The company also reported a 78 per cent increase in new listings mentioning “weight loss” in the title or description as sellers look to get rid of items that no longer fit.

    Luxury brands roll out 50% discounts as Chinese shoppers rein in spending | FT

    Is Burberry Still a ‘Made in Britain’ Brand? | Fashion Global Conscious Fashion

    What does Hong Kong airport smell of? Or your go-to hotel? The business of scent branding | South China Morning Post

    Following a record year, the stalled luxury goods market faces a dilemma between catering to top clientele and reaching new audiences amid ongoing complexities | Bain & Company

    Yoox Net-a-Porter exits China to focus on more profitable markets

    Understanding Desire in the Age of Ozempic – The Atlantic

    100-Pound Weight Loss: My health improved. My self-esteem didn’t. | Slate

    David Beckham is ‘strategic investor’ in Hong Kong’s Prenetics to set up IM8 health brand | South China Morning Post – IM8 will focus on “cutting-edge” consumer health products, the Nasdaq-listed Prenetics said, without divulging the financial details of Beckham’s investment

    Inside China’s Psychoboom – JSTOR Daily – mental illness has transformed from a bourgeois Western taboo into a legitimate public health concern.

    The consequences of the psychoboom are both logical and contradictory. As the Chinese economy has expanded and citizens have grown wealthier, the demands of everyday life have grown in number and kind, expanding from physiological and safety concerns to a desire for love, esteem, and self-actualization. At the same time, such desires run counter to traditional Chinese values like the age-old concept of Confucian filial piety and the relatively new  ideology imposed by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), both of which place the well-being of the collective above the happiness of the individual.

    ‘Spas and longevity clinics’: private members’ clubs shift focus to wellness | Health & wellbeing | The Guardian

    Welcome to the Experience Economy | Harvard Business Review – courtesy of Nigel Scott

    The “Why Now” for Healthcare – by Rex Woodbury

    How brands can leverage a new era of luxury in Asia | The WARC Podcast

    The Future of Indulgence – Haines McGregor

    ACCENTURE – Life Trends 2025

    ACCOR_The New Quality Of Time Report 2024

    EUROMONITOR PASSPORT – Top Global Consumer Trends 2025

    FORESIGHT FACTORY – Trending 2025

    INFOSYS – CPG-industry-outlook

    IPSOS – Global Trends 10th Anniversary Edition

    KANTAR – Top Global Consumer Trends 2025

    MINTEL – 2025 Global Beauty and Personal Care Trends

    PUBLICIS SAPIENT – Guide to Next Consumer Products 2025

    PUBLICIS SAPIENT – Guide to Next Retail 2025

    SYNERGY – Nutrition 2025-2026 Trend Report

    STATISTA – Consumer Trends 2025