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  • 2025 – that was twenty twenty five

    2025 started warmer, but windier than normal. I had just published a similar post and had a days break before thinking about drafting 2025 as it happened, how it was seen at the time tends to be missed out when we look back with the benefit of hindsight.

    I haven’t written much about the Trump administration, mainly because everything kept changing, so it wasn’t apparent at the time what was really important. Every day felt like a burning platform.

    January 2025

    Small and medium sized business confidence at new low. Japanese convenience store operator Lawson used offshore workers to help customers via digital avatar. Chinese property developer VANKE CEO was detained to help authorities with their enquiries. VANKE, alongside Country Garden, is one of the better ran companies known for corporate transparency. Meanwhile Guangzhou FC (formerly Guangzhou Evergrande) was ejected from China’s professional football league. Amazon announced UK drone delivery service.

    https://flic.kr/p/2qGRp48

    HSBC shut down their first attempt at competing in the ‘fintech’ space. Zing competed with Wise and Revolut in global money transfers.

    On the eve of the JP Morgan Healthcare Conference, the FT highlighted a multi-year decline in digital health investment.

    https://flic.kr/p/2qD2S3E

    Circana research found that GLP-1s weren’t responsible for long term sales declines in snacks and other consumer packaged goods sales.

    Rolex raised their prices across their models by 1-to-3 percent. Louis Vuitton revisited its 2003 collaboration with Takashi Murakami. LVMH Watch Week leaned hard into novelties and featured Bvlgari, Daniel Roth, Gérald Genta, Hublot, L’Epée 1839, Louis Vuitton, TAG Heuer, Tiffany & Co. and Zenith.

    Garzas y garcetas

    Porsche sales dropped, mostly due to 28% drop in China during 2024. Louis Vuitton launched an early 2000s streetwear throwback for its autumn / winter 2025 collection by Nigo and Pharrell Williams.

    While generation cohorts are no better than horoscopes, they have prominence in marketing discourse; Gen Beta started. Publicis Worldwide & Leo Burnett merged to form Leo. Kellogg’s returned to British TV screens with mascot Cornelius the Cockrel in the ad ‘See you in the morning’.

    https://flic.kr/p/2qGym8t

    YouGov consumer opinion analysis of the ad was positive with a degree of polarisation.

     51% say that overall, they like the ad, while only 26% disliked it. That’s a good score, you’d expect an average campaign to roughly take 40% like to 20% dislike.

    UK institution, the BBC shipping forecast turned 100. Half of banned UK crypto ads remained online.

    https://flic.kr/p/2qD2np9

    The earliest iterations of cartoon characters Popeye and Tintin went into the public domain in the U.S – but his likeness and name is still trademarked. STEM content creator Zara Dar made 3x more revenue per video on Pornhub vs. YouTube.

    State laws based on Louisiana’s Act 440 require age verification for adult entertainment sites. In response, Pornhub’s parent company, Aylo, had blocked access in 20 states. This included Florida, a major centre for porn production. Meta launched machine learning powered accounts, it wasn’t well received. Meta pivoted from fact checking to be more combative with the EU, Brazil and China.

    Some US TikTok users signed up to Chinese Instagram analogue Xiaohongshu in protest to TikTok restrictions.

    CDF 24 Wednesday

    Why did the US take action against TikTok? Rutgers University affiliated research from 2023 was the best public reason given. TikTok returned in one news cycle thanks to President Trump’s patronage.

    Cecifoot Paris 2024

    Donald J. Trump became U.S. president again as typhoon-speed winds drove fires in Los Angeles.

    https://flic.kr/p/2qEjvDu

    Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau resigned. Edelman’s trust barometer survey marked new societal nadir with a crisis of grievance.

    Oliviero Toscani, the photographer behind Bennetton’s iconic advertising campaigns and work in the fashion label’s COLORS magazine died.

    https://flic.kr/p/2oFVNfi

    Film director David Lynch died.

    https://flic.kr/p/Ybod9P

    Over the past decade ‘children’s cafeterias‘ which offer free or low-cost meals have grown in Japan from a standing start to over 10,000 venues. (Similar to the UK’s food bank expansion.) 2025 saw 1,794 cafeterias open.

    The majority of cafeterias have no age restrictions. Out of an estimated total 18.9 million annual users, 70%, or 13 million, were children while the other 30% (5.9 million) were adults.

    Across Asia and in diaspora communities around the world, the lunar new year was welcomed in on January 29th. In the Chinese horoscope, it was the year of the wood snake.

    Cellular mobile services in UK turn 40. UK government announced improved atomic clock that will help in more precise, jam-proof navigation. CES was all about generative AI. OpenAI continued to lose money on ChatGPT. Irrational exuberance in LLMs deflated by popularity of DeepSeek.

    How January 2025 memed

    Streetwear’s pivot to avant garde all-black influenced by Rick Owens and Raf Simons with dark eye shadow, was popularised by hip-hop and trap artists out of Atlanta. Playboi Carti was associated with the look. The look got a name inspired by Carti’s Opium record label – opiumcore. Jing Daily claimed that gender fluidity and opiumcore looks were going to trend in China luxury and streetwear.

    https://flic.kr/p/4v1rYJ

    It’s at odds with Chinese government guidance. They deplatformed ‘excessively feminine’ male models and those who ‘slavishly worship’ western culture. Even opiumcore’s name is problematic.

    February 2025

    Donald Trump tariffs announced against Canada, China and Mexico. Samsung head Lee Jae-yong cleared of fraud and stock manipulation charges. Clothing store Forever21 went bankrupt again. Bybit had $1.5Bn of etherium stolen from its ‘offline’ cold wallet – biggest crypto theft to date. Nike collaborates with Skims. Unilever changes their CEO.

    Robert F Kennedy Jr promised to ‘Make America Healthy Again” or MAHA, crystalised the name of a movement that brought together wellness and the political right.

    Jacquemus sold minority stake to L’Oreal & collaboration on beauty products. Creative directors moved around a lot or as Vogue Business put it ‘endless creative director news’. Breitling looks to resurrect a dead Swiss watch brand. YNAP (Yoox Net-A-Porter) closed its China operation. Rolex closed down the watch manufacturing arm of Carl F Bucherer.

    Language learning company Duolingo, shared their new brand book, which was held up as an example of how to capture a brand’s culture, positioning and market proposition. Liverpool Football Club refreshed their brand identity. R3 published their 2024 new business league table. Key takeaways:

    • Publicis was far-and-away the biggest winner
    • Interpublic lost 500,000 USD in business more than they won, what they won in creative, they lost in media.
    Schlafzimmerfenster und Morgendämmerung

    Fuji TV screens tentpole anime show Sazae-san without sponsorships, an advertising boycott over a sexual assault allegation cover-up. Lidl sold out its TikTok shop debut in 20 minutes. Post-production and video FX business Technicolor shut down.

    Simon Kemp launched this year’s Digital 2025 compendium of global online behaviours. YouTube turned 20 on Valentine’s Day. Cory Doctorow’s Pluralistic turned five.

    David Webb announced plans for the end of his iconic financial website which covered the Hong Kong market. Webb was in the final stages of his battle with cancer. Fiverr launched FiverrGo – a generative AI art-working service.

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    Taiwanese TV actress Barbie Hsu (pronounced Shu) died aged 48. Hsu was a popular actress across East and South East Asia. The Democratic Party in Hong Kong disbanded.

    HKTaxi – which pioneered taxi-hailing apps in Hong Kong, announced April closure. The Washington Post alleged UK government demanded global backdoor on Apple services. Apple removed protected cloud encryption from UK users. Humane AI has its intellectual property bought by HPE. Humane is shuttered including its AI pin device. Apple launched its iPhone 16e, it featured Apple’s first custom wireless modem. Amazon announced closure of messaging and video app Chime. Promised to continue supporting the Chime SDK, which allows the underlying messaging and video service to be integrated directly into apps. Microsoft announced Skype service closure.

    How February 2025 memed?

    Credit due to Dan Lambden: *LinkedInsincerity (noun)*: A phenomenon observed on LinkedIn characterised by interactions that appear inauthentic, exaggerated, or lacking genuine sincerity.

    These interactions may include overly enthusiastic endorsements, insincere congratulatory messages, and inflated descriptions of professional achievements, often driven by the desire to network or gain visibility rather than foster true professional connections. In essence, LinkedInsincerity represents the façade of professionalism masked by the pursuit of personal gain.

    March 2025

    March started with cold sunny days and the first snowdrops in the park by my house.

    But in comparison to the weather, economic indicators weren’t great. Hong Kong slowed down its retail sales decline. HSBC celebrated the 160th anniversary of its founding.

    _CWL0706

    Launched in 1953, JCB built their 1,000,000th backhoe loader. Volkswagen announced move away from touchscreen-only car controls. AstraZeneca bought cell therapy company esoBiotec. 23andMe declared bankrupt.

    Going upmarket, Moët & Chandon & Pharrell Williams collaborated on a €30,000 limited edition champagne bottle. It was to demonstrate ‘ collective spirit, optimism and human connection’. Lewis Hamilton became a Lulu Lemon ambassador. Willy Chavarria collaborated with Tinder on a small collection with the theme ‘How we love is who we are’. Rolex opened London flagship managed by Watches of Switzerland. Maker’s Mark launched Fielden Rye whisky – their first new recipe in 70 years.

    Starbucks launched a collaboration with Snoopy to reboot sales.

    In media, Sesame Street started shooting its 56th season. But had no distribution partner in place. Yahoo! sold TechCrunch to private equity buyer. The Federal Trade Commission looked into Omnicom’s takeover of Interpublic. Apple loses $1 billion / year on streaming. Medical drama Grey’s Anatomy turns 20 years old. The Grateful Dead celebrated their 60th anniversary with a 60 CD boxset Enjoying The Ride featured live sets recorded from 1969 to 1994.

    In online, old was gold as Yahoo! turned 30 and has enjoyed a mild comeback. (Disclosure, I worked there earlier on in my career.) Digg relaunch announced. Discord planned for IPO.

    Manus, a Chinese ‘general AI agent’ launched beta release that outperformed OpenAI. Deliveroo announced plan to exit Hong Kong operations in April.

    Mobile World Congress saw Xiaomi & Realme show concept smartphones with detachable lens. Apple delayed more personalised aspects of Siri in its Apple Intelligence rollout. Alphabet bought security start-up Wiz for $32Bn. Microsoft turned 50 years old. Oracle systems were breached and health records stolen.

    In other news, Japan marked 30 years since the Tokyo subway sarin attacks. Author and former KGB officer Oleg Gordievsky died. Irish crime fiction author Ken Bruen died.

    How March 2025 memed?

    Geopolitical disruption: The Daily Star is a UK tabloid newspaper with a right of centre, populist editorial voice. It would be a natural ally of the Trump administration; yet the headline on front page of the paper was ‘JD Dunce‘ on the March 5th, edition.

    DSC06315

    Research firm YouGov showed a sharp decline in how UK people saw the US.

    April 2025

    The end of March 2025 was the height of sakura season in Japan and in the UK. The sun greeted the start of April, so did the Trump administration with global tariffs in ‘Liberation Day‘ announcement.

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    Another thing went up in the US as well as tariffs, preventable disease-related deaths. Pertussis (whooping cough) and measles increased in US compared to last year. Pertussis infections doubled, measles infections grew even more. Spain and Portugal suffered countrywide electricity blackouts.

    The US National Science Foundation got rid of most external advisory panels and the FDA announced move to phase out animal testing.

    On a lighter note another thing going viral was pistachio cream filled chocolate.

    At Watches & Wonders, Rolex launched the Land Dweller, a watch design that is similar in concept to the Oysterquartz, Audemars Piguet Royal Oak and the Vacheron Constantine Overseas. Just as important was the new high-beat movement design rolled out in the Land Dweller. Prada bought Versace. LVMH fashion and leather goods sales fell 5% year-on-year. Added to luxury sector woes were Chinese factories claiming to offer consumers better deals on luxury goods by going direct. One bright note – Highsnobriety found that 40% of American respondents found that sustainable fashion was fashionable. This compared to just 25% of young people (gen-z) globally.

    Advertising Week Europe was held in London. Key topics of discussion included retail media and connected TV from Uber, Carwow and Disney. Adobe provided generative AI designed conference bags. UK marketing spend fell for first time in four years. Hostess Brands became first mainstream brand to promote their products on April 20th – informally 4.20 day that celebrated cannabis use. McVities celebrated the 100th anniversary of the chocolate digestive and Wired magazine celebrated the 30th anniversary of its original website.

    Bluesky announced its plans to verify accounts. Nike sued over the closure of its NFT business.

    In other news, it was 50 years since the end of the Vietnam war. Reggae star Max Romeo died in Jamaica, Pope Francis died in Rome and it was the 100th anniversary of The Great Gatsby by F Scott Fitzgerald. Fitzgerald’s ending to the novel was widely quoted and captured the zeitgeist of April 2025 well.

    “They were careless people . . . they smashed up things and creatures and then retreated back into their money or their vast carelessness, or whatever it was that kept them together, and let other people clean up the mess they had made.”

    I had started a project engagement at Google. This was 20 years to the day when I started my in-house gig at Yahoo! less “plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose” more “history doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes”.

    The Apple iPad turned 15 and AirTags turned 4 years old.

    How April 2025 memed?

    https://flic.kr/p/5A1TnJ

    An article in WARC captured April’s mood for me with the acronym VUCA. The phrase has its origin in the US Army War College during the mid-1980s, who were looking to describe a post-cold war scenario.

    • Volatility: Rapid significant change with little to no warning as to the size of change.
    • Uncertainty: Unclear outcomes as are the causes.
    • Complexity: Multiple factors in play with complex inter-related aspects to them which makes finding a way forward challenging.
    • Ambiguity: the information that is available is open to misinterpretation.

    May 2025

    May started with the warmest day of the year, 26 celsius in London.

    Warren Buffett announced plan to retire from Berkshire Hathaway. The UK and US outline shape of a limited trade agreement. The CIA launched a high production value ad campaign on western social media to recruit Chinese agents.

    https://flic.kr/p/2r2x6zQ

    CNBC’s Jim Cramer celebrated 20 years of his Mad Money show. While 2024 was was the year of semaglutide, Novo Nordisk seemed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. It was still a surprise when Lars Fruergaard Jørgensen stepped down as CEO. Unilever discovered a correlation between a particular type of skin microbiome bacteria and positive mental health measures. Consumer DNA testing company 23andMe was sold to Regeneron.

    Alex Mashinsky sentenced to 12 years for fraud related to 2023 collapse of cryptocurrency business Celsius.

    Monocle announced a new book shop and café in Paris. Business Insider laid off over 20% of staff and announced shift to AI. Amazon announced Prime Day to be held in July and did its first brand refresh in two decades. Google refreshed the big G icon. Mozilla announced closure of bookmarking service Pocket. Wikipedia took five years to go from six million articles to seven million around May 28, 2025. DoorDash agreed to buy Deliveroo. Hong Kong congee restaurant chain Ocean Empire closed down abruptly. Nutella announced a new peanut-based variant.

    Dior Couture admitted a successful cyber attack. US telecoms company Charter announced it was buying Cox Communications.

    Political scientist Joseph Nye died. Nye was famous for Soft Power: The Means To Success In World Politics.

    Chart of the month for May 2025

    McDonald’s Restaurants saw a decline in sales. This was down to low income consumers spending less, while middle class earners still weren’t going into McDonalds. Normally when there is a recession, McDonalds should benefit from the more well-off trading down to McDonalds. Instead, fortunes have diverged into a ‘k-shaped’ recession. Lower income earners are hit, while middle classes aren’t. What Axios called the ‘McRecession‘.

    McDonald's quarterly sales growth

    How May 2025 memed?

    The conclave to select a new Pope shined a light on all things Vatican related. President Trump got in on the act via his social media feed. Robert Provost was elected pope in a relatively fast conclave. His election surprised prediction markets. Recent film Conclave became a must-watch film as it was a good guide to the process of electing a new Pope.

    https://flic.kr/p/2r2nTUG

    June 2025

    June started with changeable spring-like weather with rain from London to Tokyo. The UK government published its Strategic Defence Review. A Ukrainian operation destroyed Russian aircraft deep inside Russia using small drones concealed in containers. Israel launched attacks on Iran.

    https://flic.kr/p/2pABD51

    CEO Mark Read announced he was leaving WPP at end of 2025. Apple’s ‘Shot on an iPhone’ campaign won at Cannes. Apple launched a new ‘shot on an iPhone’ film featuring Stormzy.

    https://flic.kr/p/2rcx7DT

    US Vogue editor Anna Wintour moved to more hands-off role as chief content officer at Condé Nast.

    Unilever bought ‘chemical-free’ direct-to-consumer men’s personal care brand Dr Squatch for $1.5Bn. UK discounter Poundland was sold for a pound.

    Hong Kong legalised basketball betting by Hong Kong Jockey Club. This will attract mainland gamblers where basketball has a huge following in comparison to soccer or horse racing. Asian currency arbitrage opportunity indicated a problem in US finances.

    Bill Atkinson who was part of the original Mac and General Magic teams died, as did soundtrack composer Lalo Schifrin.

    Meanwhile Apple’s WWDC felt like Mac-orientated conferences of years long past. AI was sprinkled in features with a focus on on-device AI models. Oakley and Meta collaborated on smart glasses. Flickr roles out creative commons 4, giving creators greater control over their image rights.

    Chart of the month June 2025

    Podcast advertising showed signs of maturing with slowing growth according to WARC.

    https://flic.kr/p/2r9Rjyv

    How June 2025 memed? – TACO

    Jean-Luc WOLF-2025-05-23-12-00-09

    From US foreign policy to trade negotiations the TACO trade dominated. TACO was shorthand for ‘Trump always chickens out’ – markets bet against the Trump administration’s commitment to a course of action – which starts to become a dangerous bet to make when this viewpoint becomes sufficiently visible. Operation Midnight Hammer being the exception that proved the rule.

    July 2025

    July started off with a heatwave. The Big, Beautiful bill passed in the US senate and congress. In the UK, on of the biggest things that happened in 2025 was that 16 and 17 year olds got the right to vote. The Communist Party of China turned 104, the United States celebrated its 250th anniversary of its founding. It was the 40th anniversary of Live Aid – so Live Aid was the equivalent distance in time from us to what the end of the second world war was to Live Aid.

    Perplexity AI touted a nascent advertising offering around media agencies. Chinese multi-modal AI model Kimi launched. One of the more interesting aspects was the ability to upload up to 50 documents for reference. But it didn’t deliver as well as promised, I will let the Web Curios newsletter tell you the rest:

    …when I played with it earlier this week it quickly became apparent that this is a mendacious little fcuk and will spit out completely-invented material with a glee unmatched by any of the actual, paid-for, top-end models; as such I can only recommend it as a fun thing to poke around with rather than a free alternative to the big players. 

    Apple supported the cinema launch of its film F1, with a haptic trailer, which used the vibrating motor on the smartphone alongside the speakers. The film did well at the cinema, so Apple bid for formula 1 streaming rights in the US.

    DSC01733.jpg

    K-pop band BTS announced return with news music and global tour. The Observer laid bare lies and deceit behind bestseller The Salt Path. Media executive Linda Yaccarino resigned from Twitter (X).

    https://flic.kr/p/6hG5Yf

    American celebrity and televangelist Jimmy Swaggart died, alongside long-time DJ producer Eamon ‘Ame’ Downes and former Conservative Party politician Norman Tebbit.

    How July 2025 memed?

    In the same way that in the mid-1990s onwards to 2000, the internet became part of culture as much as a technology people used, AI has been having a similar movement since 2023 onwards. When you combine AI with highly memetic training content and accidents ensue, so it was with Grok AI becoming ‘Mechahitler‘ and edgelords around the world rejoiced in their childhood bedroom or parent’s basement. Grok is considered to be an AI without a ‘woke ideology’.

    https://flic.kr/p/H1yrdN

    Grok didn’t magic the name ‘Mechahitler’ out of thin air, it is a character from the Wolfenstein series of games based on various alternative history scenarios of world war two. It’s emulated by cosplayers and a film had been in development for over a decade.

    Mechahitler as a meme beat out BURRITO – Bold Unilateral Retaliation Regardless of Inflation Trade or Order, which came from the TBOY podcast.

    August 2025

    July bowed out wetter and cooler than much of the month and August opened with winds that made it feel more like spring. It was the 80th anniversary of the atomic bomb attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki and the 250th anniversary of Daniel O’Connell. Indonesians protested their government by flying the pirate flag from manga and anime franchise One Piece.

    Panasonic launched an AI-enabled rice cooker in Japan to help deal with the ongoing ‘rice crisis’.

    Vogue saw an online backlash against its first AI model photo shoot. A French livestreamer died live on broadcast – in a manner eerily reminiscent of the David Cronenberg’s Videodrome.

    Adidas launched a collaborative sneaker with Lufthansa. The Ford Transit celebrated its 60th birthday. Nike leans into its ACG technical outdoor brand to drive growth. Seiko celebrated 60 years of making dive watches in a low-key manner with enthusiasts. McDonald’s in Thailand allegedly demanded damages and fired a restaurant manager for having previously been a go-go dancer – who was pictured on her former bar’s social media. It wasn’t clear if it was a franchisee or the Thai McDonald’s partner McThai Co. Ltd who was involved.

    Video effects production house Glassworks closed down. The UK CMA approved Omnicom‘s acquisition of IPG. As the deal went through approvals IPG’s business performance worsened. WPP outlined its vision for an ‘AI-empowered agency‘.

    Intel CEO was asked to resign by The White House because of his ‘connections‘ to China. Later on the US government takes a stake in Intel. The Pakistani energy sector suffered from renewed cyber attacks.

    https://flic.kr/p/2rmo6o8

    NASA Jim Lovell who was famous for being part of Project Apollo died.

    How August 2025 memed?

    ARC Sommer Party 2025 - Damen XV’s und Herren 7’s

    In the same way that Che Guevara was a touchstone for rebellion against established authority in the 20th century – the internet has found its own icon. Ibrahim Traore is a coup leader and Burkinese army officer. Traore has become famous beyond the Francophone region, becoming an icon for protestors from Micronesia to the New Zealand Parliament.

    September 2025

    Autumn weather started in the last week of August, with the rain arriving too late to help out arable farmers in the home counties.

    China, Russia and India met as part of the SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organisation).

    https://flic.kr/p/2rqN6ax

    China and Russia sign an initial agreement to develop a new high capacity gas line called Spirit of Siberia 2. Oracle’s Larry Ellison becomes the world’s richest man.

    Unilever discovers that microbiome not only affects health, but also aging in a beauty context. Novo Nordisk lost the market for GLP1 agonists to Eli Lilly, 9000 Novo Nordisk employees paid the price. Games Workshop allegedly withdrew Ukrainian language materials in apparent support of Russia. Luxury multi-brand retailer Ssense reorganises as part of its bankruptcy proceedings. Arc’teryx staged a stunt in Tibet that was universally panned.

    ITV celebrated its 70th birthday. Long time online blogging service Typepad closed down. Online news aggregator Techmeme turned 20. Google Docs turns 20 and Google Chrome browser market share exceeds 70 percent. AOL discontinued dial-up internet services in the US and Canada and was put up for sale for $1.5 billion. That’s still less than $1.50 for every disk and CD that AOL ever sent out to consumers in the US and Europe. The UK security services launched the Silent Courier portal to aid leaks by Russian and Chinese sources. Mastodon launched new services for corporates and marketers. Specialist interest online video networks Playeur and History of Weapons and War (think History Channel meets YouTube documentaries) both closed down, subscription based video platforms are hard.

    Apple continued to lose key engineers to Meta and launch iPhones. Training LLMs sloppily in one aspect of their roles can make their behaviour malicious in other areas. Chinese company makes world’s fastest production car.

    Concerns about an AI bubble started to show up in rate of change in search volume.

    https://flic.kr/p/2rFAR4Y

    In the face of smartphone bans, American school children dug out iPods, Discmans and Walkmans to still have music while they study or just hang out in class. The UK government tested its emergency alerts system prompting a siren sound and this screen shots on smartphones across the country. There was no corresponding SMS text message to feature phones.

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    Ron Carroll, a Chicago-based singer, producer songwriter died leaving a body of house music behind. Italian film actress Claudia Cardinale died, she was famous for Fellini’s 8 1/2 and Leone’s Once Upon a Time In The West. Giorgio Armani died a week after his last interview with the FT was published. Robert Redford died aged 89, a day after the FT wrote a style article about the tweed blazer he wore in Three Days of The Condor. It didn’t take long for some wags to talk about the ‘curse of the FT’. Yahoo! News covered off Redford’s ‘role‘ in the nod of approval GIF, which made me a bit sad, given for many people that clip of Jeremiah Johnson was all they’d seen of his career as an actor / director.

    https://flic.kr/p/5QtXy4

    How September 2025 memed?

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    Operation ‘Raise The Colours’ saw St George’s flags spring up across England from homes and lamp posts to painted roundabouts. Whilst many of the displays were well meaning, the initative was apparently driven by far right groups. This seemed to be designed to build momentum for a Tommy Robinson rally in London.

    October 2025

    There was a downpour overnight as September rolled into October. The Labour Party conference had finished, leader Kier Starmer had historically low approval ratings. Storm Amy hit the UK that weekend. Britain lost control of its borders. Data analysed by David Webb showed that Hong Kong had a revenue problem from tax avoidance / evasion of tobacco products. The cause was less clear, it may be cross-border shopping trips, smuggling gangs or more likely both. Webb’s website was shut down on Hallowe’en.

    Barclays bought US consumer loans business Fresh Egg.

    The FT claimed that the UK government demanded a backdoor to British user data. The Labour Party conference had finished. Ireland elected a new president in a process marred by a large amount of spoiled votes and low turnout. Scandal dogged Labour decision to abandon China spy case – or as former British ambassador with Chinese experience put it ‘appeasement’ and a ‘masterclass in ineptitude’. Chinese conglomerate BYD sells record number of electric cars in UK as Jaguar Land Rover flounders from cyberattack by suspected ‘state actor‘. Mercedes Vision Iconic concept car unveiled in Shanghai, looked like the vehicle the relaunched Jaguar brand would want to build. The grill design mimicked a vintage Mercedes 600 ‘Grosser’ and was a world away from the current nadir of the car brand.

    https://flic.kr/p/2rzWYM5

    Apple released upgrades of three products with its M5 processor. LVMH offered hope of business growth. Adidas unveiled its football for the next world cup called Trionda which looked like a shanzhai Poké Ball (used for catching and storing Pokemon). Toyota won its ninth manufacturers championship competing in the FIA WRC (world rally championship). 2025 marked their fourth back-to-back championship win.

    Indonesia blocked TikTok and then unblocked it when the platform provided user information. Analytics suggested the world usage of social media may have peaked. Amazon hit 200 million US shoppers using Prime. Alphabet celebrated the 25th anniversary of Google Ads.

    OpenAI had teething troubles while developing a new consumer hardware product, and seemingly does deals with everyone for $1 trillion+ of infrastructure – by mid-October it’s easier to list who they hadn’t done a deal with. By the end of October, OpenAI announced for-profit business. Concerns about an AI economic bubble became mainstream. EU looked to promote AI digital sovereignty. Amazon Web Services had an outage, Gigabrain announced the shutdown of their Reddit search tool and pivot to Aire AI video. NHS announced major productivity benefits from Microsoft Copilot trial.

    Palantir CTO Shyam Sankar criticised Jensen Huang and Nvidia (at the head of a vanguard of large American multinationals) on their continued investment in China. The title was subsequently changed on the digital edition of the op-ed in the Wall Street Journal to a more generic ‘Why the China Doves Are Wrong.’

    https://flic.kr/p/2rAfBqv

    Qualcomm announced AI chips and first client.

    The IPA publishes two pieces of important research. Balance efficiency and effectiveness or risk a marketing ‘death spiral’ – great piece of work by Les Binet and Will Davis that reinforces the message behind The Long And The Short of It. Beyond engagement – understanding influencer payback revealed some of the benefits and pitfalls in conducting paid influencer campaigns. Though some of the more interesting findings were in the details, including the unpredictability of influencer campaign success.

    Actress and director Diane Keaton died leaving behind a diverse body of film and TV work. I thought her role in The Little Drummer Girl is her most underrated performance.

    How October 2025 memed?

    My favourite one of the five ‘core’ trends Jing Daily on Chinese social media ‘fits’ was goblincore.

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    The name tells you everything that you need to know. The looks seems to be inspired by video games and cosplay that borrows heavily from Tolkien, who in turn borrowed from European folklore.

    Escapism with a hint of darkness made a good deal of sense in a time of high youth unemployment, economic uncertainty and technological upheaval in China.

    November 2025

    The end of October was wet and blustery. The Economist came out and said that western government debt was at levels unseen since Napoleonic times. Donald Trump threatened to sue BBC. Vaping overtook smoking in the UK. Starbucks sold the majority of its China operations to a local private equity investor. Sony launched a cheaper Japan-only Playstation 5. Funko announced that it would struggle to continue as a going concern due to its high debt level. Celebrations for the 85th anniversary of Bruce Lee got underway.

    Palantir had great sales results, but spooked investors. Microsoft admitted that its efforts to build out computing power for LLMs was limited by access to data centre electrical power.

    Some of the major studios in the porn industry including Aylo who runs Pornhub came together to establish a code of conduct. Why now? China’s equivalent to Grindr have been withdrawn from local app stores.

    Shein keelhauled by the French government due to it selling ‘child like’ sex dolls online. Israel gets rid of Chinese cars in its vehicle fleet as it can’t the vehicles against espionage. An executive at L3Harris was jailed for selling secrets to the Russians. BYD announced UK launch date for Porsche 911 rival.

    RTÉ announced a new daytime line-up for its week day daytime programming on RTÉ Radio 1 to take it through the end of 2025 onwards. Christmas advertising arrived even earlier than last year. WARC claim that advertisers were following consumers who were starting Christmas shopping research earlier. John Lewis’ effort seemed to be a ‘homage’ to the imagery of Charlotte Wells’ film Aftersun. Nick Asbury wrote the best (all be it over the top) analysis of the advert.

    Early research on generative AI produced ad creative had lessons on the best approaches to get effective creative. IPG UK revenue dropped 8.4% quarter-on-quarter in advance of its purchase by Omnicom. Omnicom completed purchase of IPG, a critic described the deal as ‘two drunks leaning on a lamp post‘.

    Nigo’s streetwear brand Human Made listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange.

    Private equity company Vista claimed job cuts were due to AI automating tasks. One in five UK companies expected to follow Vista’s example in 2026. Law firm Clifford Chance let go of 10% of back office staff due to automation and offshoring.

    Wang Fuk Court in Tai Po caught fire with the flames spreading from tower-to-tower. The whole of Hong Kong went into mourning. At least 146 people lost their lives. The Chinese government was concerned that the tragedy might spark protests.

    How November 2025 memed?

    67

    6-7 featured ambiguously on a rap track and was then picked up by teens to mean everything and nothing.

    December 2025

    The US government published their 2025 National Security Strategy on The Whitehouse website. December started off with rain and Omnicom-IPG related firings playing out in near real-time on Reddit. The share price was up 0.14% by the close of the market in New York. More job cuts were expected as Omnicom hadn’t reorganised its own portfolio of agencies. A presentation that captured the zeitgeist of social media marketing for 2025 was published.

    https://flic.kr/p/2gv9mSj

    Jimmy Lai, who founded Giordano and The Apple Daily was convicted on two counts of conspiracy to collude with foreign powers and one count of conspiracy to publish seditious materials. The UK government response was weak, the US one slightly stronger.

    UK consumer spending dropped at fastest rate in four years. UK arms of discount supermarket brands Aldi and Lidl sold Christmas vegetables including brussels sprouts, turnips, carrots, parsnips and potatoes for 8 pence / bag, (or 84 – 94% discount).

    WARC has research to show that global advertising spend is growing faster than the economy – but that incremental gain is accruing only to the major online platforms.

    https://flic.kr/p/2rLgZeh

    Prada closes its acquisition of Versace. Nike announced more changes in the boardroom. Superdry and Nike got called out for greenwashing claims. Toyota launched the GR GT sports car. Unilever ice cream spin-out ousted independent board chairwoman of Ben & Jerry’s.

    Mistral launches new open weight models. Jim Chanos went public on shorting Nvidia stock. Disney did a deal with OpenAI.

    Netflix moved forward with a $72 billion bid for Warner Studios and HBO Max. Paramount intervened. Vanity Fair ran a tell-all interview with The White House chief-of-staff. President Trump’s defamation lawsuit against the BBC moved forward.

    Facebook sunset Messenger apps for Windows and macOS. PayPal applied to become a bank. The Pax Silica Declaration was signed by nine nations—the United States, Japan, South Korea, Singapore, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, Israel, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Australia to bolster the semiconductor supply chain from Chinese pressure.

    How 2025 memed?

    https://flic.kr/p/2qPACjF

    YouTuber This is Antwon nailed in his description of the year as The Slop Era to capture how generative AI had captured culture in a similar manner to all things internet in culture from about 1994 onwards as the dotcom era kicked off through to the millennial bust.

    404 Media discussed the phenomenon at SxSW, specifically why slop content happens.

    Much of it was created by more technically-oriented people in the Philippines, the Middle East or South Asia who were looking to go viral. The reason why they did it was not to become famous per se but to gain vitality and get paid by Facebook’s creator programme.

    In essence, the slop wasn’t for you or me, but designed to directly target the algorithm and then the creator gets a small share of the subsequent ad revenue. The model worked as a side hustle only because venture-backed AI models are providing a surplus of free tokens to these creators through farmed trial accounts.

    By October, ‘AI slop’ was used as a pejorative for any artwork developed with the help of generative AI including a large public art mural in Chicago.

    The FT worried about what it was doing to our online experience and work lives.

    The people that made 2025

    The most important part of this recollection of 2025, the people I am thankful for (and to) this year including: Ivana Bivolarova, Graeme Brimmer, Megi Cane, Rosa Chak, Matt Charman, Adrian Cockle, Robin Dhara, Waleed Elgindy, Harry Fowler, Tom Gogan, Haruka Ikezawa, Sarath Koka, Matthew Knight, Valia Koleva, Argyro Kyriakidou Wilson, Sarah Lafferty, Dawn Lee, Rupesh Limbachia, Karen Lo, Lee Menzies-Pearson, Nick Moffat, Fiona Ong, Muhminah Raees, David Shearer, Inas Sid, Angeline Velasco, Nadège Verboon, Calvin Wong & Noel Wong.

    The sales pitch.

    I have finished my strategy engagement at Google’s internal creative agency and am now taking bookings for strategic engagements. I can start immediately – keep me in mind; or get in touch for discussions on permanent roles. Contact me here.

    now taking bookings

    More on what I have done here.

    bit.ly_gedstrategy

    The End.

    Don’t forget to share if you found it useful, interesting or insightful.

    Now on Substack as well as on LinkedIn.

  • Toyota FJ Land Cruiser + more stuff

    Toyota FJ Land Cruiser

    Toyota announced its new Toyota FJ Land Cruiser model. The Toyota FJ Land Cruiser is a smaller five-seater vehicle. It is a direct replacement for the FJ Cruiser which was sold in many markets outside the UK and European Union. Like its predecessor the Toyota FJ Land Cruiser shares underpinnings with its larger 7-seater cousin the 250 series. It features a shorter wheelbase. Toyota has put a lot of effort into thinking about how it can make the Toyota FJ Land Cruiser more extensible in capabilities and more modular.

    17 Jun 2025 . El Gobernador del Estado, Pablo Lemus, encabeza la entrega de útiles y uniformes escolares del programa “Listo Jalisco” en Teuchitlán

    Modularity comes in compatibility with MOLLE military storage connectivity that has made its way into the civilian world. While Alpine packs are about sleek design with few snags, MOLLE allows fastenings, pouches and equipment to be suspended inside and outside bags. Toyota has now extended this to the inside of the Toyota FJ Land Cruiser’s rear door.

    The focus on extensible features within the vehicle shows how some markets (notably America) have a large after market industry providing additional features for vehicles with aspirations to do overloading. Toyota is an active participant in the SEMA show in the US. This is where fans and the vehicle modifying industry get together to be inspired, do deals and gain intelligence on vehicles so that they can design new after market parts. Toyota brings concept builds, as well as allowing after market manufacturers to measure and 3D scan new vehicles.

    The move to extensible design, shows that Toyota is interested in providing more of that capability through its own business. Third-party parts, in particular lift kits can affect handling and wheel bearings. Designing its own aftermarket parts and applying extensible thinking in the vehicle design philosophy allows Toyota to:

    • Meet consumer needs.
    • Ensure the vehicles meet the factory’s quality and reliability standards.
    • Offer incremental additional revenue.

    While a Toyota FJ Land Cruiser as ‘mum truck’ won’t need a water fording kit. An overlanding enthusiast like Chloe Kuo would put it to good use and influence more potential buyers in the process.

    Like the FJ Cruiser before it we are unlikely to see the Toyota FJ Land Cruiser in UK Toyota dealerships due to the UK government’s focus on forcing UK consumers away from internal combustion vehicles. Instead they are likely to come in small numbers as JDM (Japanese domestic market) pre-owned vehicles.

    Toyota recognises that net zero is more complex than importing Chinese electric vehicles. Considerations also need to be given to vehicle use case, the whole life carbon footprint of the car and sustainability. But that doesn’t make simple solutions for policy makers.

    Toyota will have four Land Cruiser models that it will be selling around the world:

    • J70 series – sold to the UN, various militaries, Japan, Australia and in the global south. Doesn’t pass current European vehicle laws as it’s designed for resilience, robustness, repairability and sustainment in the most hostile environments.
    • J300 series – the flagship of the line-up. Sold in the US as the Lexus LX, this combines the comfort of a top of the range Range Rover with the capability of the 70 series in an off-road environment. As a Land Cruiser it is available in Australia, Japan, the Gulf States, South Africa and various countries in South East Asia from Sri Lanka to the Philippines.
    • J250 series – the most widespread of the Land Cruiser range in terms of sales footprint. It is sold in Japan, Europe, North and South America, Australia, Sri Lanka, the Philippines, China, Vietnam, Brunei and the Gulf States. In Europe it’s known as the Land Cruiser. It’s sold in other markets as the Toyota Prado, the Toyota Land Cruiser 250 in Japan, the Toyota Land Cruiser Prado in Australia and in North America as the Lexus GX and Toyota Land Cruiser. It is smaller and utilitarian than the J300, but not quite as robust or spartan as the J70 series.
    • FJ Land Cruiser – the Toyota FJ Land Cruiser is likely to be sold in North America and Japan, mirroring the markets where the FJ Cruiser was originally sold.

    China

    A Proud Superpower Answers to No One – by Ryan Fedasiuk – an odd blend of policy isolation and hubris. Read with China Doubles Down – by Stephen Roach – Conflict

    Economics

    How the UK Lost Its Shipbuilding Industry – by Brian Potter – The UK ultimately proved unable to respond to competitors who entered the market with new, large shipyards which employed novel methods of shipbuilding developed by the US during WWII. British industry in general failed to invest adequately to keep ahead of competitors. The UK fell from producing 57% of world tonnage in 1947 to just 17% a decade later. By the 1970s their output was below 5% of world total, and by the 1990s it was less than 1%. In 2023, the UK produced no commercial ships at all. – Part of this was also down to policy decisions. The Thatcher administration deliberately designated yards as military-only to drive them to the wall and smash the trade unions.

    Energy

    Honeywell unveils new technology to decarbonise heavy industries | FT – no reason why it couldn’t work for aviation and vehicle fuel as well in principle aside from scale.

    US government and Westinghouse strike $80bn nuclear reactor deal | FT

    Porsche hits reverse on EV push as new CEO shifts back to petrol | FT

    Finance

    Barclays buys Best Egg in $800mn bet on US loan securitisation | FT – is this sub-prime? Read also HSBC warns on wider risks from private credit blow-ups | FT

    Hong Kong

    Memory Exiled | History Workshop – a bit tiresome, don’t get me wrong I am happy to throw brickbats at the UK Government as a citizen of a decolonised country but this is distorted. – The UK government releases papers after 20 years, but some are kept under wraps for longer for national security or other reasons. Sensitive materials (in Hong Kong’s case, perhaps to do with the handover) don’t account for more than a tiny percentage of the content and are redacted. One possible reason the Hong Kong files are still not released is simply that there are huge amounts of them, and they are mostly on microfiche, which is a pain to digitise – not because of a desire to ‘control history’.

    Breaking | Beijing vows to support Hong Kong in better integrating into national development | South China Morning Post – reads like extending Bay Area narrative and weakening Hong Kong‘s distinctiveness?

    Innovation

    The Loop: How American Profits Built Chinese Power

    Luxury

    Kim Jones joins Bosideng to lead its new high-end urban line | Vogue Business – Bosideng are a huge maker of down jackets, it will be interesting where they go with Kim Jones.

    Marketing

    What’s gone wrong at WPP? The crown slips at world’s biggest advertising group | WPP | The Guardian – “Middle-aged traditional creatives, the ones that have built a career doing traditional TV ads and posters who you’d have thought would be the most at threat of extinction, are moving very fast, teaching themselves how to master…generative AI to survive.”

    Forgive the rant, but this quote from an article about WPP’s decline–and the attitude behind it–drives me absolutely crazy. Let’s do the math.

    If you’re a 40-year-old creative, you were 19 when Facebook launched.You turned 21 when Twitter debuted.You were 22 when Apple introduced the iPhone, and 25 when Instagram came out.
    So you’ve literally spent your entire career in advertising creating work for the digital/social/smartphone media ecosystem. 
    And that means you’ve produced way more digital-first and social campaigns than TV spots, let alone posters. (Also: I would love to meet the creative who “built a career” making posters.)

    And creatives older than 40? They’ve successfully navigated the decline of broadcast and mass media, the introduction of smartphones, the broad shift to targeting, the endless parade of social channels and new technologies that Will Change Everything–arguably the greatest two decades of disruption the advertising industry has ever faced.

    And the creatives who are over 60? They’re the generation that *invented* digital advertising. – I thought that this comment from LinkedIn was the most insightful assessment of the article

    Security

    Russia at war — ebook by Royal Danish Defence College – great articles including one by Anders Puck-Nielsen.

    NATO Baltic Sea mission has ‘deterred’ undersea sabotage: commanders | Spacewar

    Dentsu warns staff of data breach after Merkle hit by cyber ‘security incident’ | Campaign

    Software

    Apple employees have ‘concerns’ over Siri performance in early iOS 26.4 builds: report – 9to5Mac

    Major NHS AI trial delivers unprecedented time and cost savings – GOV.UK – Microsoft 365 Copilot trial demonstrates monthly time savings of potentially 400,000 hours for NHS staff.

    Technology

    China calls for ‘extraordinary measures’ to achieve chip breakthroughs | FT and The Dark Horse of China’s AI Silicon: Cambricon After the Nvidia Ban | Voice of Context

    Qualcomm shares jump as it launches new AI chip to rival Nvidia | FT and Nvidia to invest $1bn into Nokia as chip giant extends deal spree | FT – I keep thinking back to Cisco circa 1999 and its never-ending stream of stock-based acquisitions based on the irrational exuberance of of an elevated share price.

    Amazon Plans to Replace More Than Half a Million Jobs With Robots – The New York Times – Amazon is working hard on automating more warehouse tasks with robots, targeting 600k jobs and 30 cents cost saving per item shipped. Versus Alibaba reality circa late 2017.

    Wireless

    Iridium develops compact chip for robust global GPS protection | Space Daily

  • Tahoe + more things

    Tahoe

    Another year, another macOS. Tahoe is sensibly unambitious but it has raised some ire amongst Mac users. You can tell how unambitious Tahoe was, when CNET had to do an article showing you how common app icons have changed because you otherwise probably didn’t notice. I know I didn’t.

    Tahoe is neither here nor there as a release for me. I haven’t found features that are ‘can’t live without”. The app interface changes feel different for the sake of being different, but I quickly got used to them.

    In terms of quality it still feels a bit ‘beta’-ish but I hope that the bugs get ironed out over time.

    • The pop-up window to select my accent over the ‘o’ in my given name gets blanked out for some reason.
    • When performing certain actions, the browser chrome all turns white.

    Otherwise things have been fine so far. My anti-virus of choice launched an update soon after Tahoe came out. As has my VPN client and numerous utilities and apps that I use for work, or just keeping my Mac tuned up.

    I have a Brother mono laser printer to connect up, (as my long-suffering HP unit finally gave up the ghost after a decade of service,) which might be a bit of a trial if Reddit is anything to judge by.

    Last Week on My Mac: Tahoe’s elephant – The Eclectic Light Company – this critique points out the kind of issues with Tahoe that implies it isn’t the Macintosh operating system of Steve Jobs with its historic focus on art principles and typography right from the beginning.

    China

    From ‘guochao’ to ‘zìxìn’: China’s new era of cultural confidence | Jing Daily

    Why anti-involution feels anti-Chinese? | Following the Yuan

    Dutch seizure of chipmaker followed US ultimatum over Chinese chief | FT – the judgement paints a bit more of a nuanced picture with two independent actions. It also explicitly states that the government order is not final yet (and at that point would still be open to appeals). The actual matter involved is a (significant) breach of fiduciary duty by Zhang Xuezheng and the holding company (Yuching). Cited issues were:

    • Placing of orders to another Wingtech subsidiary in China (that is in financial trouble) far exceeding demand (such that the expectation is that a significant share of the stock would need to be scrapped as it would not be able to be used in time)
    • Replacing 3 people with banking authority (including the CFO) with 3 other people, without financial background, one not an employee of Nexperia at all. All in the context where urgent US sanctions mean that independence from China is important for continued operations of the company. The court called this “Voor een onderneming van de orde van grootte van Nexperia grenst een dergelijke handelswijze aan roekeloosheid” (“For a company in the order of size of Nexerperia these actions border on being reckless”).
    • For the replacement no motivation was provided, prompting the chief financial officer and the chief legal officer from their own fiduciary duties as directors to object (and also to ask the court to investigate/intervene)
    • Stated intent to dismiss existing directors (without motivation) or asking for mandatory consultation from the workers council.

    As to the decisions:

    • Suspension of Xuezheng as director/CEO
    • Temporary appointment of a new non-executive director (with power to make final decisions)
    • Place all (except 1) share under management/safekeeping with a lawyer
    • This all motivated by (very) signifcant breach of the fiduciary duty, not based upon an Dutch government action. The application of the Entity list on Nexperia as subsidiary was a significant contextual driver though (as in the duty to minimize corporate risks).

    Consumer behaviour

    Piper Sandler Completes 50th Semi-Annual Teen Survey | Piper Sandler – teen spending down 6 percent compared to last year. Another point was that Dr Pepper was their favourite drink ahead of Coca-Cola, which makes this activist investor’s interest even more salient: tarboard builds stake in Keurig Dr Pepper after unpopular Peet’s deal | FT

    Economics

    UK risks higher inflation becoming entrenched, IMF warns | FT

    Health

    Mirador fundraising raises hopes of revival in US biotech market | FT

    Ideas

    Everything Is Television – Derek Thompson

    Japan

    Anime activism – Matt Alt’s Pure Invention – I didn’t realise that in 1978 the president Marcos of the Philippines had banned a whole genre of anime (giant robots or mecha) due to the influence of Voltes V on Filipino student activists.

    Marketing

    Post | LinkedIn – The Future of Brand Building Begins Where Commerce Meets Creativity. – or P&G applying the radio soap opera format to the 21st century

    Stopping agency burnout: the fight against ‘insidious’ work cultures and ‘inaccurate’ timesheets – Campaign found a long-hours culture continues to exist in adland, with pitching, client demands and poor role-modelling by managers part of the equation. 

    In the current climate of staff cuts, lingering threats of AI replacing the workforce and agencies dealing with economic constraints, late working – and the chance of burnout – continues to be a risk.

    Shrinking teams can potentially lead to more demands being placed on remaining employees. WPP and Interpublic each cut thousands of staff from their global workforces in the first half of 2025, on top of headcount reductions in 2024. Last year, the collective global headcount across the “big six” holding companies declined by 1.6%, the first fall since the post-pandemic rebuild. 

    WPP boosts AI marketing with $400mn Google deal | FT – I would be concerned if they weren’t using video generators like Veo and Google Gemini – which does make me wonder what Mark Read was up to?

    On the importance of good strategic writing in using AI: AI interfaces and the role of good writing | by Nick DiLallo | Oct, 2025 | UX Collective

    Media

    Apple sued over use of copyrighted books to train Apple Intelligence | Yahoo! News

    Google designated with “strategic market status” by UK Competition and Markets Authority – The Media Leader

    Exclusive | Advertisers Push Big Tech to Adopt Standards for Transparency in Ad Sales – WSJ

    How We Automated Content Marketing to Acquire Users at Scale | Spotify Engineering – Insightful blog post from Spotify’s ML team: they implemented their own pre-ranking algorithm to select the best ad variants to deploy to their advertising channels in their user acquisition campaigns. 

    Spotify’s marketing team developed a creative production pipeline that could generate and deploy ad creatives to marketing channels based on listening habits in a geographic region. The problem they encountered was that they were generating creatives from a high-cardinality dataset, and the number of variations they were uploading to their channels was overwhelming those channels’ ability to optimize ads effectively. 

    Spotify’s solution was to build a pre-ranking algorithm using XGBoost that would determine which creatives to upload to the channels. Their ML pre-ranking model outperformed a simple heuristic model, with 4%-14% lower CPRs and 11%-12% higher CTRs. The ML model utilized a rich set of features to predict sub_percentage (the percentage of contributed subscriptions from the artist) and relative_cps_ratio (the share of the artist’s cost per subscription in the marketing campaign) for premium subscriptions, whereas the heuristic model used three fixed features. The model is retrained daily based on a defined lookback window.

    Moreover, although this was deployed before ATT, the team found that ATT didn’t impact its performance, as training relied on aggregated data.

    This obviously remains a relevant issue as advertisers scale the volume of their creative production through generative tools. While this pre-dates Meta’s Andromeda initiative for pre-ranking, it’s still likely relevant for most other channels (and, depending on the volume of creative uploaded, Meta).

    Perplexity Pauses New Advertising Deals to Reassess Ambitions | AdWeek – brands are rethinking how to spend their budgets. Chan said many advertisers are moving away from performance-focused, traditional search and towards top-of-funnel brand awareness—an area Perplexity may pursue down the line.

    Online

    US Amazon Prime Membership Finally Hits 200 Million | CIRP – Amazon Prime finally hit the 200-million-member mark in the US, after several quarters of slow, but steady growth toward that milestone.

    Note: CIRP estimates the number of individual Amazon shoppers who use Amazon Prime. That includes multiple family members for many subscribers, so this estimate is higher than the number of US households that pay for an Amazon Prime membership.

    Amazon knows the difference between Prime shoppers and paid Prime member households, so as US Prime membership approaches its limit, there may be a growing focus on bringing those numbers closer together. Amazon does not want to reduce the number of Amazon Prime membership users, but it certainly would not mind having more paid memberships associated with them. We expect Amazon to continue its efforts to attract members by emphasizing the benefits of Prime, rather than policing shopping and limiting Prime membership sharing.

    CIRP estimates 200 million US Amazon customers had a Prime membership as of the September 2025 quarter. That is an increase of about 6% from 189 million US Amazon Prime members in the September 2024 quarter and up very slightly from our 198 million member estimate last quarter.

    Retailing

    Why Did Walmart Just Buy a Shopping Mall? – The New York Times – reminds me of the local mini-shops that used to be inside Kwik Saves in many towns

    Technology

    China’s ‘Darwin Monkey’ is the world’s largest brain-inspired supercomputer | Live Science

    I had been having lunch in the Google canteen with colleagues, and then came back to my desk, checked an email newsletter and this arrived: Smartphone-powered AI predicts avocado ripeness | Newsroom | Oregon State University

    Web of no web

    Palmer Luckey’s Anduril launches EagleEye military helmet with help from buddy Zuck | The Verge

    Amazon launches Echo devices designed for Alexa+ | Amazon

  • August 2025 newsletter

    August 2025 introduction – duck and dive (25) edition

    https://flic.kr/p/pFjf1X

    This is the 25th edition of Strategic Outcomes. The first edition was quickly bashed out in a hotel room. And people signed up, and kept coming back. As I write this August 2025 has been a weird month with the weather throwing all the seasons at once at us from storms to heatwaves.

    The bingo call for 25 – ‘duck and dive’ would have been equally appropriate descriptor for 2025 to date – with massive changes across current affairs, the economy and culture. It seemed to make more sense than calling this a ‘silver edition’.

    25 evokes memories a of childhood Irish card game played with my Uncle and Granny on the formica top of the farmhouse kitchen table. Something I frequently did during August nights after a day’s work cleaning up after animals, feeding livestock and other tasks.

    For this month’s musical accompaniment I can recommend St Etienne Take Me To The Pilot produced by Orbital’s Paul Hartnoll, which hits different to previous St Etienne records.

    New reader?

    If this is the first newsletter, welcome! You can find my regular writings here and more about me here. 

    Strategic outcomes

    Things I’ve written.

    • From the changing nature of motorsport fandom to do clients actually care about WPP’s organisational changes and new CEO?
    • Hacks for moving city, from my time uprooting my life from London to Hong Kong and back again. These were and edited version of notes from an email I wrote years ago for a acquaintance who was moving to Shenzhen, soon after I had made the jump to Hong Kong. He is no longer with us, you may get some value out of them.

    Books that I have read.

    • I am currently reading David McCloskey’s Moscow X. The slow reading pace is more down to me rather than the accessibility of the book which is up to McCloskey’s usual high standards.

    Things I have been inspired by.

    Escalating trade tensions

    GLG shared a discussion on escalating global trade tensions. I had a number of takeaways from it.

    US trade war with China has devolved into a dangerous stalemate where neither side can back down without losing face.

    The core conflict stems from China’s state-led industrial policy clashing with the rules-based system. The Trump administration’s rhetoric triggered China’s historical “century of humiliation,” making compromise politically difficult.

    Key takeaways from the discussion:

    1. China’s top demands aren’t about tariffs.
    • Respect is paramount: China’s first demand for restarting talks is that the Trump administration speaks to them with respect and stops insults.
    • Sovereignty is key: China insists on discussing Taiwan, which it views as its “most important and most sensitive issue”.
    1. The U.S. is overstretched.
    • Not enough negotiators: The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative has only about 250 total employees.
    • Outsourcing is unworkable: Using pro bono law firms to assist raises problems with security clearances and conflicts of interest.
    1. The non-China strategy is different.
    • A softer tone: The administration’s approach to allies like Japan, South Korea, and Vietnam is more ‘measured’.
    • Quick deals: preliminary agreements with these nations that focus on tariff reductions, while punting more complex issues negotiations down the road.
    1. Sector-specific US risks loom large.
    • Technology: export controls on advanced chips and dumping of Chinese-made legacy chips used in cars and white goods.
    • Autos: Highly integrated supply chains that cross borders, are very vulnerable to tariffs.
    • Pharmaceuticals: Tariffs on generic drugs could become unprofitable and cause them to disappear from the U.S. market.

    The state of AI in business

    The Gen AI divide: state of AI in business 2025 | MIT was published and created an AI stock sell-off based on its top-line factoid: 95% of companies get zero RoI from GenAI.

    But there was more interesting takeaways in the report that paint a more nuanced picture:

    The “Learning Gap” is the real barrier.

    • The primary reason AI pilots stall is that most systems don’t retain feedback, adapt to context, or improve over time. 
    • While 70% of employees prefer AI for simple tasks like emails and summaries, 90% choose a human colleague for complex projects because of the learning gap.

    Buy, don’t build.

    • Internally developed tools fail twice as often as COTS ones.
    • The data shows a clear winning strategy: pilots built through strategic partnerships with external vendors are twice as likely to reach full deployment as those built internally (a 66% success rate versus 33%).

    Companies are making misplaced bets.

    • An estimated 70% of AI investment is directed at high-visibility sales and marketing functions.
    • The highest and clearest ROI in underfunded “back-office” areas. Some firms are saving $2-10 million annually in customer service and document processing.

    These three points are good news for consultants, productivity suite vendors and enterprise software companies that really understand their clients workflow pain-points.

    Chart of the month. 

    Actually two charts. The first one is a decline in conscientiousness. Depending who you believe this could be down to our always-on lives thanks to social media and smartphones, OR, a victim of the broken social contract that young adults (aka generation z) feel has happened.

    DSC05359

    A corresponding decline in US consumers reading for pleasure tends to imply a smartphone-related effect rather than broken social contract as cause. Also broken social contracts are depressingly common generation-by-generation.

    https://flic.kr/p/2rprUpL

    Things I have watched. 

    The Iron Prefect was a film that I watched purely on the basis of a talk Alex Cox gave as part of the special features on the Blu Ray. The film is an account of a Fascist-era official sent to combat the Sicilian mafia who ends up finding how endemic and self-defeating his mission is. It is based on the story of Cesare Mori and some of his most famous acts such as the siege of Gangi. Cox talked about its similarity to The Mattei Affair – which I can see to a certain extent, in terms of the themes explored. The film features Claudia Cardinale and Giuliano Gemma – two greats of Italian cinema. But the real star is the scenery.

    Hong Kong Hong Kong is a tragic romantic triangle about mainland migrants with a social realism bent. It was shot in 1983, but didn’t have the escapism of more popular films in the Hong Kong box office at the time.

    The film is similar in feel to the likes of the kitchen sink dramas of 1960s kitchen sink dramas like This Sporting Life, and John Huston’s boxing drama Fat City. It shows a different side to Hong Kong cinema than western audiences were used to. It came out the same time as Zu Warriors from the Magic Mountain and Jackie Chan’s Project A. Hong Kong Hong Kong benefited from the free flow of rostered actors attached to TVB – the dominant broadcaster being able to work for Shaw Brothers film productions. Protagonist Alex Man, like other stars of his era including Chow Yun-fat and Simon Yam Tat-wah came through TVB’s acting school that nurtured talent from all walks of life from first-jobbers, to former models and policemen.

    Man brought experience from television and stage roles to his film performances which makes Hong Kong Hong Kong more powerful.

    Finally 1980s the city of Hong Kong itself plays a fantastic role to the drama. From the opening tracking shot taken somewhere above Kennedy Town to the composite buildings and Shangri-La Hotel in Tsim Sha Tsui – to migrant slums that were being dismantled as public housing improved. Hong Kong has continually changed from an architectural point of view, though the pace has slowed recently. Some of the shots pulled at me deep inside as only a home you deeply cared about can.

    An Amorous Woman of Tang Dynasty featured Alex Man as a classic wuxi swordsman. The star is Pat Ha Man-jing who would have been 18 or 19 at the time. The film feels more ‘Japanese’ chambara romance than your usual Hong Kong film. Ha’s cleavage is on display – which is unusual as the Hong Kong film industry is more socially conservative. Violence is ok, but risqué films like Sex and Zen with a category III rating often had Japanese actresses in them like Mari Ayukawa and Rena Murakami. The Japanese actresses appeared because of the stigma in Hong Kong society affected actresses careers more than their male counterparts AND the ongoing popularity of Japanese adult films in Hong Kong. 

    An Amorous Woman of Tang Dynasty shows the two sides of Shaw Brothers productions: great actors and inventive cinematography on one side, together with cheap skating on set design like giant marine plywood panels.

    Shaw Brothers had been wounded by the founding of Golden Harvest, he power of the studio system was waning, the Hong Kong new wave movement was taking off and soon ‘mainland collaborations’ would dismantle much of the ecosystem that made Hong Kong cinema great.

    I really wanted to like Butterfly on Amazon Prime Video. It had a great cast including Daniel Dae Kim, Piper Perabo and Charles Parnell. It was shot on location in South Korea. It had an interesting take on the privatisation of intelligence operations. But it felt empty and definitely less than the sum of its parts, which is a shame given how well Amazon did on its Tom Clancy adaptions. Butterfly was let down by poor storytelling.

    Useful tools.

    Yet another LLM. Anara was something I have trialled a little and found useful due to its heavier weighting towards citing research papers compared to the other main LLMs out there. Useful for account planners as another tool in our arsenal to be used in parallel with the more mainstream tools out there, rather than as a substitute.

    The sales pitch.

    I am currently working on a brand and creative strategy engagement at Google’s internal creative agency. I am now taking bookings for strategic engagements from the start of 2026 – keep me in mind; or get in touch for discussions on permanent roles. Contact me here.

    now taking bookings

    More on what I have done here.

    bit.ly_gedstrategy

    The End.

    Ok this is the end of my August 2025 newsletter, I hope to see you all back here again in a month. Be excellent to each other and onward for an indian summer, despite some of August already feeling autumnal.

    Don’t forget to share if you found it useful, interesting or insightful.

    Get in touch if you have any tips or thoughts.

  • Motorsport fandom + more things

    Motorsport fandom is strange. Back when I was a child motorsport fandom was a bunch of anoraks – literally. There was a category of clothing that you could buy from mail order catalogues and retailers like Demon Tweeks called a rally jacket. This was a coat good enough to deal with some cold wet weather branded by a car company or a tobacco brand.

    Extraliga-Play Off-2025-Ypsilonka-photo-Zdenek Sluka-0030

    Motorsport fandom, in particular single-seater race series are starting to see very different types of fans who learned their supporting ideas from the K-pop armies which are a symbiot of the artist promotion machine. While both promotion machine and fans are separate with very different tactics, they were united by a common goal to a point.

    This isn’t the first time that media has brought in new fans, gaming created fans in the past. But the current motorsport fandom is interesting because of the cultural friction that it brings for drivers and legacy fans. From hate campaigns and death threats against drivers to ‘idol’ style objectification – women are demonstrating traits that would define toxic masculinity. All wrapped up in pastel tinted social media posts and Etsy products – so that makes it all fine, doesn’t it?

    Beauty

    ‘A marker of luxury and arrogance’: why gravity-defying boobs are back – and what they say about the state of the world | The Guardian

    Business

    Microsoft saved $500 million last year thanks to AI. This year, it’s laid off 15,000 employees | Quartz

    China

    Thinking Through Protracted War with China: Nine Scenarios | RAND and Trump is enabling Chinese power – by Noah Smith

    Consumer behaviour

    More than “I do”: Legal status and cultural distance shape marriages and separations | CEPR

    The evolution of stupid | FT – this reminded me of the debate about calculators in maths and physics exams when I was at school

    Design

    Why carmakers need to bring back buttons

    How Renault is speeding up car development to match Chinese rivals | FT

    ‘When was the last time I saw one of those?’ Car magazine – on the consumer’s obsession with screens over driving experience

    FMCG

    Japan’s mayo king calls time on baby food as inflation bites and births fall | FT

    Health

    A Close Look at Auxiliary Prescription Labels | Inconspicious Consumption – interesting intersection of regulation, consumer experience and design

    Japan

    Alimentation Couche-Tard drops its $46bn pursuit of 7-Eleven owner | FT

    Luxury

    LVMH’s Loro Piana placed under court administration over worker exploitation | FT – it seems to be a feature of the LVMH management ‘system’ rather than a bug

    TikTok won’t grow your luxury brand in the long term | The Drum

    China could give luxury titans a run for their money | FT – this was only a matter of time. See also Swatch activist ups pressure as profits plunge over China weakness | FT

    Marketing

    WPP has its next CEO – but what do clients make of heir apparent? – It’s not indifference. It’s pragmatism. Marketers like this don’t want to buy into the idea that a leadership change signals sweeping transformation. After all, Rose doesn’t start until September. Until then, they’d rather stay focused on the present, not the promise.

    Ryan Kangisser, a bellwether for client perspective thanks to his proximity to them as the chief strategy officer at MediaSense, expanded on the point: “I do think that often the industry cares more about these sorts of appointments than clients do. Especially if clients have got a really solid client lead, or business lead, then they’re the people who they feel are the ones driving their business.”

    Cindy Rose is the right choice for a CEO (but maybe not at WPP) – The Media Leader

    WPP turns to Microsoft executive as AI threatens ‘Kodak moment’ | FT

    Cindy Rose WPP: Why Cindy Rose will lead WPP to recovery, ET BrandEquity

    Is Accenture interested in all or some of WPP? – More About Advertising – it would make sense for Accenture to do their due diligence at the very least

    Why Nike Quietly Launched on Substack

    Media

    Apple TV+ Became HBO Before HBO Could Become Netflix | Spyglass

    Amazon Breaks Up Wondery Podcast Studio, CEO Jen Sargent Departs | Hollywood Reporter – issues with the business model for audio offerings, curious to know if Vox will follow suit? The shows that moved to SiriusXM are interesting, SiriusXM is a subscription-based satellite and internet radio service

    Online

    Google, Microsoft and Amazon face pressure over data sovereignty – Rest of World

    Shitposting as a National Asset – DARC

    Is Everything a ‘Humiliation Ritual’? | GQ and Humiliation Rituals | Protein – on the nature of social media rewards, but could as easily apply to many unscripted TV formats.

    Reddit at 20: A Look Beyond the Upvotes – 3 Quarks Daily

    Chinese police crack down on young women writing homoerotic fiction | Le Monde – this is interesting because its been an area of Chinese online culture which has escaped censure so far despite the government’s concern about traditional family values under the Xi administration

    Disinformation warriors are ‘grooming’ chatbots | FT

    Retailing

    China falls for American-style bulk buying at Sam’s Club despite US trade tensions | Ft

    Security

    Data Warfare – DARC – interesting theory.

    Axios Future of Cybersecurity: 1 big thing: A tale of two generative AI futures – differing opinions from Defcon in Vegas on the impact of AI on hacking and cyberdefence

    From Tactical Trench Killers to Strategic War Winners: Doctrine, Operational Art, and Tomorrow’s Drone-Enabled Maneuver Warfare – Modern War Institute

    Building Trust in Military AI Starts with Opening the Black Box – War on the Rocks

    The Innovation Imperative: Why Tactical Ingenuity is Not Enough | Small Wars Journal by Arizona State University

    Israel Secretly Recruited Iranian Dissidents to Attack Iran From Within — ProPublica

    Software

    Nikkei Asia podcast on how the Korean media industry and gaming developers are using AI – South Korea pushes limits of AI in gaming and entertainment – YouTube

    Axios AI+ 1 Big Thing: AI’s elusive coding speedup – small sample but interesting study. Part of the problem might be the corpus that would underpin coding for open source projects.

    Five things I believe about actually-existing AI today | Dave Karpf

    Technology

    An OpenAI Acquisition Turns Into a Google ‘Hackqusition’ | Spyglass – hackquisition is the new acqu-hire

    Telecoms

    Broadband’s tiny barbarians gather at BT’s gate | FT