What I’m calling augmented retailing is a step change in technology in retailing from efficiency to effectiveness.
Retailing efficiency
Before we talk about augmented retailing, let’s go through efficiency which has been the focus for a long time. Depending on the way you want to look at this, you could look back centuries to the foundation of a technology multiplier: children.
Family retail businesses had family members working in their business from once they could understand and act on instructions. I have friends that started working in the family restaurant from 6-years old. I started working on the family farm (ineffectively) from a similar age.
Weighing scales were starting to become standardised by the middle-ages and giving short measures could see you punished.
The next innovation were payment related, such as currency and credit.
At the end of the 19th century thanks to industrialisation you started to see the origins of supermarkets as we now think about them. Sears Roebuck was the exemplar for mail order business, from which we now have Amazon and the countless e-tailers out there. Around about the same time the cash register was invented, which allowed cashiers to deal with more customers in a given amount of time. Cash registers then improved over the next century.
At the end of the 20th century we start to see e-tailing emerge. Accelerating mail order from being a niche to becoming a mainstream form of retail. Around the same time, you also saw cashier-less tills come in and other techniques to make shopping even more self-service.
Augmented retailing
Augmented retailing isn’t for the primary benefit of the retailer; but the customer. That’s more radical than it sounds as I write this down.
Look at other trends that marked change in retail and its about inconvenience to ‘create’ demand:
Apple retail product launches.
Abercrombe and Fitch / Hollister’s ‘club style’ door queues.
I have started to see innovations that are focused on the effectiveness of the consumer experience, rather than being orientated around retailing efficiency.
Mylowe virtual advisor
Lowe’s is a DIY superstore, rather similar to B&Q, Homebase or Toolstation in the UK. Like B&Q, Lowe’s has on-site experts to advise customers and help them select parts for projects.
Mylowe helps the experts by augmenting their expertise, providing a faster, better experience for Lowe’s customers.
A-eye
Indian snack manufacturer Britanniaworked with their agency VML India to aid blind consumers to shop independently. The app christened A-eye uses Google’s Vertex AI to recognise products on shelves and provide information about the product (quantity, ingredients, instructions etc.). Think about the personal confidence that this would bring to the user in their everyday life.
Albert Heijn provides cooking tips
Dutch supermarket brand Albert Heijn uses generative AI to help consumers by answering cooking questions. `Mijn AH assistent’ helps customers in their food shopping for food ingredients.
Cocaine Cowboys by Nicola Tallant tells the story of the Kinahan organisation. The Kinahan organisation is a group that wholesales and retails illegal drugs in association with other organised crime groups. Tellant explains how deprivation, geography and economic growth fuelled drug trafficking and abuse in Ireland. Isolated council estates and economic hardship drove a heroin epidemic. The subsequent Asian Tiger economy only uplifted young professionals who then were a ripe market for cocaine. Cocaine added to Ireland’s already difficult relationship with alcohol use and abuse.
Crime journalism such as this is popular in Ireland because it is so concentrated through blood and marriage ties. We don’t have the kind of diversity that the British criminal underworld has. This means that it’s much more ‘relevant’ to Irish society.
But the book title itself is very interesting. There is a clear parallel to the scale of the cross-border drug trade between the US and Mexico.
Irish country music star Daniel O’Donnell courtesy of TG4
But there is also an underlying western theme across Irish culture. The vast majority of us are at most a few generations from the farm. We have had hard times which is why country music appealed and even morphed into a localised genre Country and Irish popular in rural areas and amongst lorry drivers (or in American truck drivers that drive ‘semis’.)
Tallant’s stance is definitely anti-Kinahan; but the book title Cocaine Cowboys gives them the hero status and taps deeply into the mainline that the cowboy and related elements like country music have into Irish culture at home and abroad. Cocaine Cowboys might be the inspiration for the next generation to replace the Kinahans.
If you want to know more beyond the book Nicola Tallant and her colleagues at Irish tabloid the Sunday World host a podcast called Crime World.
After peak woke, what next? The Economist – in the past decade, a form of wokeness has arisen on the illiberal left which is characterised by extreme pessimism about America and its capacity to make progress, especially on race. According to this view, all the country’s problems are systemic or structural, and the solutions to them are illiberal, including censorship and positive discrimination by race. This wokeness defines people as members of groups in a rigid hierarchy of victims and oppressors. Like the Puritans of old, adherents focus less on workable ideas for reducing discrimination than on publicly rooting out sinful attitudes in themselves and others (especially others). The Economist has analysed how influential these ideas are today by looking at public opinion, the media, publishing, higher education and the corporate world. Using a host of measures, we found that woke peaked in 2021-22 and has since receded. For example, polling by Gallup found that the share of people who worry a great deal about race relations climbed from 17% in 2014 to 48% in 2021, but has since fallen to 35%. Likewise, the term “white privilege” was used 2.5 times for every 1m words written by the New York Times in 2020. Last year it was used 0.4 times per 1m words. – Of course, woke’s failure could be viewed by proponents as a sign of deep-rooted systemic prejudice
Economics
Why Britain has stagnated? | Foundations – this reads true and hits hard. My parents came to the United Kingdom when the motorway network was being built, power stations were being constructed and the first generation of nuclear submarines were being constructed. In London the Victoria line was constructed. Now the UK struggles to build any infrastructure and its strategic industrial capabilities have been hollowed out or disappeared.
FMCG
Unilever moves on ‘sub-par’ marketing | WARC – That means consistent execution in marketing innovation, marketing quality, proposition sharpness, execution of pricing, execution of distribution. Fernandez suggested that, on a scale of 1-10, the business is currently at around six but needs to get to eight or nine (“ten doesn’t exist”). A&P spending is increasing as a proportion of revenue, from 13% in 2022, to 14.3% in 2023, and 15.1% in H1 2024. “There is an implicit recognition that our level of investment was not in line with our ambition of volume growth,” he said. That increased investment is not there to fund a growing volume of marketing content, he added. “I’m much more concerned about the quality of the stuff that we put in the market than the amount”. And that also means a focus on brand-building. “We see other people putting much more focus on promotional pricing,” he said, “but we always will prefer to invest in long-term, equity-building activities.” – CFO burns marketing teams ‘I believe our marketing was subpar”
Is marketing entering its ‘era of less’? | WARC – based on Gartner CMO surveys marketers are increasingly being seen as cost centres and are being asked to do more with less which is affecting mar tech spend, staffing and agency spend.
Innovative research that literally put people in the driver’s seat | WARC – More than half of strategists (59%) are integrating AI into their strategy development process in a cautiously progressive way. They need to identify the skills that AI can’t replace, such as getting buy-in for a strategy, and double down on them. Speedy access to research and insight (74%) and streamlining repetitive tasks (74%) are the top opportunities strategists see in leveraging AI in the strategy process.
Future of Strategy 2024: Synthetic data – speedy saviour or another example of the industry’s arrogance? | WARC – it’ll be useful when time is of the essence, and you want to ‘speak’ to people and get their thoughts on your hypotheses, ideas or campaigns. In that scenario, I can see how that approach may replace an ad-hoc focus group set up hastily in the agency’s boardroom. But we’re not here purely to understand people. If the role of communications is to move people emotionally, shouldn’t we also be here to feel people? As Richard Huntington, CSO of Saatchi & Saatchi says: “You can’t feel data.” The beauty of humans (and the beauty of ethnography) is that so often it’s not what we say that powers an ‘insight’ or a strategy, a campaign or some NPD… it’s what people don’t say. It’s the nods and winks, the gestures, the objects with meaning they have in their homes and in their lives. That texture isn’t picked up by a typical conversation – be that with synthetic data or in a focus group. These feelings that are elicited from ethnography are the special sauce that can separate the wheat from the chaff.
Home | LibreOffice – Free and private office suite – Based on OpenOffice – Compatible with Microsoft – I have 35 years of content saved, and LibreOffice can open them all. When you’ve been writing for years, your manuscript formats will often be obsolete (though I’ve tried to make decisions that make my poems available platform agnostic, such as using plaintext, but line breaks and stanza breaks don’t always translate well in markdown). LibreOffice is an incredible tool for opening 25 year old wordperfect files when I need them.
Apple Knew Where the Puck Was Going, But Meta Skated There – the PAN or personal area network has been talked about for 20+ years. What this misses is that the Orion glasses were possible thanks to silicon carbide lens which are a non-trivial thing to manufacture at scale
This section on AI search is largely down to Rowan Kisby’s observations over at LinkedIn. I worked with Rowan when I was her client at Unilever, super-smart, can’t recommend her enough. Now on to AI search: Google has looked to augment its web search in a more obvious way with generative AI providing ‘AI search’ features.
The AI search features have adversely affected publishers of non-time dependant evergreen content according to Authoritas. This has sparked concern amongst media publishers, but early feedback on IAC and Ziff-Davis shareholder calls indicated little change in traffic numbers. Google claims that AI search feature ‘AI previews’ actually delivers more, rather than less click throughs.
Dr Mike Lynch OBE | Obituary – Sound on Sound magazine cover’s Lynch’s music hardware career which happened before he started Autonomy. The bit that this story misses is how Lynch’s developments helped move forward digital music and affecting electronica during a particularly creative point in culture including house and the rave scene that spun out of it.
I can’t recommend Phoebe Yu‘s content enough, this video on colour, culture and user experience design is a great example of her work.
The Geopolitics of Wine | Peter Zeihan – thanks to increasing costs of capital, aging worker demographics and climate change New Zealand and Australia will do better than Latin American wines and most European offerings except France
Is marketing entering its ‘era of less’? | WARC | The Feed – based on Gartner CMO surveys marketers are increasingly being seen as cost centres and are being asked to do more with less which is affecting mar tech spend, staffing and agency spend.
How to connect offline to China’s Gen Z and Alpha? | Jing Daily – Young Chinese consumers are finding new consumer interests away from blind boxes and claw machines: ‘Guzi’ (谷子) stores. ‘Guzi’, derived from the phonetic English ‘Goods’, describes merchandise featuring popular ACG (animation, comics, and games) characters, including badges, standees, and posters. – China develops it’s take on otaku culture
The AI state of the union H1 2024 post came about as we had a number of trends starting to come into view. To paraphrase Charles Dickens the AI state of the union H1 2024 represented both the best of times and the worst of times in generative AI.
Astro Boy | George Oates
Is the current state of AI analogous to the dot com boom?
In this respect, discussions around a dot com type boom around generative AI are less helpful. The dot com boom didn’t have the same naysayers at the time, aside from what would be now called edge lords worried about money. Like with all economic cycles they would eventually be proved right, but not until we had broadband and shopped at Amazon.
Culturally, we are in a very different, darker place and aren’t riding an economic boom. I have tried to lay out some of the nuances in the themes currently driving AI discussions.
I have broken this down into three themes and a focus on Japan.
Vendor knife fight
Trough of disillusionment
Synthetic data
Japan focus
Right let’s get into The AI state of the union H1 2024.
Vendor knife fight
The AI state of the union H1 2024 sees generative AI being added to products and business plans, in a similar way to being web-enabled in the late 1990s. Spring Apps estimated that there almost 58,000 AI companies.
Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon and Meta increased their investment in generative AI to $106 billion during the first six months of the year. In addition, Meta is looking to leverage the open source model of software development to drive progress in its Llama model. This echoes, how the open source model and software like Linux, MySQL and PHP were used during the dot com boom and the move to web 2.0 to provide greater efficiencies and possibilities.
Some applications such as Adobe Creative Suite has become much more powerful thanks to adding generative AI. Alphabet has finally had generative AI companies parked on its front lawn. Open AI joined Perplexity in providing a search product.
Apple came up with Apple Intelligence that provides a platform and front end for a mix of generative AI models. Microsoft has Co-Pilot that it has been selling to enterprises.
Financial institutions have led the charge to try and get productivity gains such as JPMorgan’s IndexGPT and the continued automation of back office processes.
Meanwhile in China, Baidu’s ERNIE has attracted almost a million developers looking to use the generative AI platform in their projects.
Trough of disillusionment
The enthusiasm for generative AI hasn’t managed to drown out dissonant voices. The number of objections are diverse.
Business issues
Morgan Stanley in a research report quoted a large pharmaceutical company CTO who abandoned the use of Microsoft Copilot in their organisation. The crux of the argument was that they weren’t seeing the value. Presentation creation was described as middle school level. Pharma companies tend to use PowerPoint as a publishing platform rather than a ‘presentation tool’ with data rich busy slides, so I can understand why Copilot became unstuck.
It isn’t only ‘high-end’ knowledge work conducted by large corporates that is underwhelming. McDonald’s is withdrawing generative AI systems deployed at its drive-thru restaurants due it not working as planned. A Gartner survey of IT leaders indicated that McDonald’s wouldn’t be alone with nearly one in three generative AI projects to be scrapped in 2024.
That might not be such a bad thing as businesses are currently in a process of experimentation, so long as the lessons learned are captured and internalised.
Goldman Sachs have pivoted over a matter of months from being bullish about generative AI, to being concerned that the return on investment for generative AI may take far too long.
Societal impact
What if speed isn’t the goal? The process of reading isn’t only about the ability to parse information quickly but also affects other aspects of human thinking and behaviour. There are clear benefits for certain groups of people including neurodivergent and second-language learners. But it also poses a risk to close reading skills which impacts developing or improving existing skills. Secondly, the generative AI can miss key facts from a document, given up as speed is prioritised over nuance and accuracy.
Knowledge collapse – By mediating access through AI tools moving forwards, due to the model’s focus on the centre of of the distribution of its data set. Restricting access to the edges is likely to cause harm to future innovation, human understanding and cultural development outlined in Peterson’s paper AI and the Problem of Knowledge Collapse.
Technology-specific issues
Environmental impact – like web 3.0 and the crypto economy, generative AI requires a lot of energy to run high performance data centres. This means that Open AI is losing money hand-over-fist paying for computing capacity from Microsoft at a significant discount.
Model collapse – the relative lack of human-made data and the rise of synthetic data used in training generative AI systems is likely to lead to a rapid degradation in those models, indicating a ceiling on amount of progress that generative AI based on LLMs is likely to make.
Synthetic data
Synthetic data is probably one of the most difficult subjects to write for AI state of the union H1 2024. On one hand, you have Mark Ritson’s endorsement of synthetic data based on what we saw from B2B marketing generative AI startup Expenza AI. Ipsos have also got some credible interesting offerings that seem to be based on the provision of synthetic data.
Is it any good? A lot depends on how the LLM is trained and the way it’s being used in terms of what you want to achieve. As with any tool, it can be useful for the right jobs. The MRS Delphi Group gave a range of feedback on the way it should be used, some of which seemed to contradict each other. We don’t know how accurate a picture the LLM is creating, what is being called algorithmic fidelity.
Until concerns about algorithmic fidelity is addressed sufficiently well; marketers would be wise to exercise a degree of caution.
Japan focus
I have included Japan in my AI state of the union H1 2024 post for a few reasons.
Prior to the current exuberance about generative AI; Japan was doing really interesting things using different parts of AI including fuzzy logic and software agents. The Panasonic rice cooker that cooks rice that’s perfect for your preference. Error correction for video and audio playback, from CDs to Blu-Rays. Complex camera programme algorithms including image stabilisation. Sophisticated non-playable character behaviour in computer games. There has even been synthetic singers like Hatsune Miku and virtual influencers.
If Star Trek influenced the flip phone, the smartphone ( think the tri-corder, especially when used with the likes of Oxford Nanopore‘s products) and tablets (on Star Trek’s next generation), then cyberpunk and Japanese anime have influenced AI in a similar manner. Elon Musk and Sam Altman would fit right in as villains in the Ghost In The Shell series.
Finally, even though Japan influenced cyberpunk based on William Gibson’s experience meeting Japanese students, it has a paradoxical relationship with technology. For instance, the Japanese government recently stopped using 3.5″ floppy disks. Ancient crafts are still highly prized and Japanese brands like The Real McCoy’s and Grand Seiko who provide premium manufactured goods to artisanal standards.
Matt Alt has put together a good overview of the policy and cultural context for generative AI in Japan. It’s less of a clear cut issue than the Japanese body politic seems to believe. The Japanese government believes that its population is likely to view AI positively because of anime plot lines. While Atom Boy is a positive example there are lots of negative examples in the Ghost In The Shell franchise alone. There is also a tension between government aspirations for international exports of increased amounts of media content.
There are also concerns about existing AI relationships in Japan exasperating existing societal problems, like virtual girlfriends or boyfriends.
The luxury sector is undergoing a transformation, and nowhere is that more apparent than in the world of boutique e-tailers. I am of a generation that grew up with boutiques, carefully curated fashion looks from multiple brands.
As a child, my Mam would get me jumpers as I grew up from different small stores like this. To this day, the ultimate compliment she would give any item of clothing was that it was ‘exclusive’.
As I started buying my own clothes I pivoted between sports shops for my footwear, Ellis Brigham for layers, Caran D’Ache – a menswear boutique in Birkenhead at the time for jeans and ‘going out’ clothing. (Having known the owner/manager quite well, I suspect that the store was named after the Swiss writing instrument company, rather than the pseudonym of French satirist Emmanuel Poiré). This was where I got my first down jacket (by Naf Naf), Oshkosh B’gosh dungarees and Champion sweatshirts. At the time Ellis Brigham was a sea of Polartec and Gore-tex with no down jackets in sight.
I started venturing further afield and went to Quiggins in Liverpool, Affleck’s Palace in Manchester and what’s now the Victoria Quarter in Leeds. I’d also started coming down to London with friends to find brands I couldn’t get at home.
Famous high-end boutiques like Browns built a reputation for championing up and coming womenswear designers like Hussein Chalayan and Alexander McQueen. They also helped the likes of Ralph Lauren, Jil Sander and Calvin Klein start seeing in London. At their best boutiques moved culture as curators and taste makers. I got my love of American workwear from Caran D’Ache and Japanese streetwear from the late lamented Hideout which was just off Golden Square.
Department stores were the first aggregators of boutiques with a mix of single brand and multi-brand concessions under one roof. Brands like Selfridges, Harvey Nichols, Isetan, Lane Crawford, Mitsukoshi, Neiman Marcus, Saks Fifth Avenue, SEIBU and Shinsegae.
These established businesses have their place, indeed LVMH owns a number of selective retail businesses like DFS (often known as T Galleria), Le Bonne Marché and Starboard Cruises. So multi-brand distribution has a place in the luxury retail mix. Over time the premium department store brands and LVMH’s select retail brand would both have boutique e-tailers within their brands providing an omni-channel experience.
In the run up to COVID, multi-brand retail counted for 57 percent of luxury sales, management consultancy Bain expect this to decline to 36 percent of luxury sales by 2030.
Online
Online continues to disrupt retailing over a quarter century after it landed. The first casualties were book stores and music stores. Twenty years ago, one of the most enjoyable activities that I did in my spare time was rifling through record store shelves, digging for surprising or elusive vinyl records, CDs and DVDs.
Some of the places were I did this are long gone, like Tower Records in Piccadilly Circus. On the flipside, new businesses sprang up to be online first, or online only. Amazon started as a book store and eventually became the modern-day equivalent of the Sears Roebuck catalogue.
Luxury was no exception and a variety of dedicated boutique e-tailers sprang up:
Matches
MyTheresa
Net-a-Porter
YOOX
Farfetch
In the same way that mobile operators were the key determinators of whether mobile phone shops were successful, luxury brands had the whip hand over multi-brand boutiques. Phones4U died when its relationships with EE and Vodafone came to an end. The FT article The implosion in luxury ecommerce implied a similar pivotal moment between Farfetch and Kering, but with Farfetch managing to sell itself to Korean e-tailing business Coupang instead of going into administration.
One brand / one store
Luxury brands have looked to gain more control over their customer experience and get closer to the customer overall. This has seen many brands open single brand stores. Up until the 1980s, Louis Vuitton sold mostly through department stores, now it’s mostly through its own brand channels. Some brands like Audemars Piaget, now only sell through their own single brand showrooms.
The big name department stores continued to hold a position in the marketplace due to their own brand power, even while smaller mid-market stores in provincial cities folded.
Over time, brands extended their shop front into the online sphere. This was done once two things were able to happen:
An all-up online and offline view of a given customer and CRM systems allowed this to happen. This wasn’t for efficiency reasons to go online only, but to provide an omnichannel service to match customer’s omni-channel lifestyles.
Getting this all-up view will also help with future EU legislation moving towards a circular economy.
The ability to provide a high level delivery experience for online purchases. This mattered less with fragrances than it did with watches and handbags. High security logistics providers like Ferrari were able to provide this to the main luxury brands.
One small chink of hope for multi-brand stores is that single brand stores may be forced to either change business practices, or insulate themselves from legal action via authorised dealerships. A court case brought by two women against Hermés in the US claims that having to buy other products to get a crack at purchasing a Birkin bag is a violation of antitrust laws.
The obligation to buy other products first, is what the women claim is an ‘illegal tying arrangement’ which is why Hermés might be in violation of antitrust laws. Other brand who have authorised dealers rather than their own showrooms are less likely to be at risk.
Compressed middle-class
One of the first things that I learned when doing LVMH’s INSIDE LVMH certificate was that the bulk of luxury purchases are made by the middle classes.
Robert Gordon’s Rise and Decline of American Growth outlined how the middle classes in America (but also many other western countries). Income inequality, automation and globalisation drove a stagnation and decline in middle class numbers, even as the number wealthy increased.
Globalisation elevated a new middle class in Asian countries like Japan, Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan and Thailand. Energy drove middle class growth in the countries surrounding the Persian gulf and Nigeria. Louis Vuitton opened their first show rooms in the US in 1914, in Japan in 1978 (though department stores had been selling their products for years). The first Korean shop opened in 1984 and China eight years later.
Over the past few decades this was compensated by new middle classes growing. They don’t necessarily have the earning power of a middle class westerner, but the purchasing power level may vary considerably. So a middle class consumer in a country like Thailand, Malaysia or Singapore might have more disposable income than someone in the UK.
Japan’s middle class quickly reached stagnation due to the lost decades of economic growth after their 1989 asset bubble. Korea has gone through a similar challenge, it has seen raised consumption, but recently this is driven by household debt rather than prosperity.
China
Quantity is a quality of its own, which is a reason why Chinese consumers have been so important to luxury brands since the early 2000s when China joined the WTO and its economy took off. Once there was even a small growth in middle class numbers that represented a big increase in global luxury sector sales. The decline in economic growth due to the property sector bubble has dampened luxury sales to China. It is not only about the decline in ability to purchase, but also the decline in being seen to purchase western luxury goods.
This less conscious consumption started early on during the Xi administration’s desire to combat corruption and aspire to a more equal society. Gifting declined. Economic decline accelerated this Chinese macro-trend.
COVID and after
COVID changed consumption. Money that would have previously been spent on experiences such as restaurant meals or travel transferred into things. Both single brands and boutique e-tailers got a lift in this environment. But a wider economic effect is still working its way through the economy. This effect is known as the bullwhip or Forrester Effect.
This resulted in a number of economic distortions:
Partial shutdown – Consumers no longer went to work or high traffic retail hotspots. Non-essential workers didn’t go to work. Logistics systems buckled under the weight of packages and luxury businesses diverted production to support medical needs such as LVMH’s perfumes businesses making hand sanitiser.
Unusual increase in demand – Home working drove an increase in demand from media consumption and home improvement to buying more stuff from all that money they saved from not going out.
Supply chain disruption – Air cargo prioritised medical supplies while existing stock sat in empty shops.
All of this disruption which drove inflation, this reduced demand as consumers had less to spend.
Luxury brands focused on their inflation proof ultra-high net worth customer base and raised prices to compensate for the reduction in sales volume. The fight for that reduced volume pitched multi-brand boutique e-tailers against their suppliers and the results weren’t pretty.
Boutique e-tailers are going to the wall, or consolidating to weather the fiscal storm until such time as middle class consumers can start spending aspirationally again.
Some of these businesses can’t be saved. Matchesfashion, which was bought out by Frasers Group didn’t have much chance.
