The heat from radioactive processes within the planet’s interior causes the plates to move, sometimes toward and sometimes away from each other. This movement is called plate motion, or tectonic shift
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz declaration of a zeitenwende or epochal tectonic shift following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Part of this tectonic shift is Germany’s desire to become a security guarantor in Europe. A lot of coverage has focused on how far away Germany is from this aspiration in terms of military preparedness and over-reliance on the very countries likely to threaten European security.
In an opinion piece Chancellor Scholz asked a rhetorical question
How can we, as Europeans and as the European Union, remain independent actors in an increasingly multipolar world?
Scholz implies that the tectonic shift also adversely affects the United States efforts to jumpstart green industries and contain a globally more aggressive China. One could argue that Scholz’s approach is business as usual. For decades, large German enterprises have encouraged the government to work with authoritarian regimes, creating a Germany highly dependent on bad actors.
Indonesia set to penalise sex outside marriage in overhaul of criminal code | Reuters – the new code could be passed by as early as next week. The code, if passed, would apply to Indonesian citizens and foreigners alike, with business groups expressing concern about what damage the rules might have on Indonesia’s image as a holiday and investment destination. – the question is if this is going to take Indonesia on a similar path of economic stagnation as Malaysia has taken?
Twitter’s decline continues. I noticed this morning that Twitter allowed me to post the exact same Twitter post twice. That isn’t something that was possible previously and I could see how it could be used for nefarious reasons.
My twitter account this afternoon when I checked it
Shein Confusion: The Fast-Fashion Giant’s New Resale Site Doesn’t Make Buying Easy — The Information – Annie tries out Shein Exchange, the e-commerce brand’s foray into the bustling resale market. On its face, the platform seems like a good idea, given the ongoing controversies over Shein’s cheap, disposable, landfill-clogging apparel. But there is something distinctly off about the brand’s effort to sell used clothes
Amazon’s new AI tool may take over work from employees facing layoffs and buyouts – Vox – the tech giant has been working for at least the last year to hand over some of its recruiters’ tasks to an AI technology that aims to predict which job applicants across certain corporate and warehouse jobs will be successful in a given role and fast-track them to an interview — without a human recruiter’s involvement. The technology works in part by finding similarities between the resumes of current, well-performing Amazon employees and those of job applicants applying for similar jobs
Chinese COVID protests have been held in major cities including Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Beijing and Chengdu. Why did the Chinese COVID protests happened and what does it mean?
One panel of a SARS triptych that I photographed back in 2010 at a Chinese Communist Party exhibition at the Guan Shanyue Art Museum in Shenzhen, China.
TL;DR (too long, didn’t read)
The Chinese COVID protests aren’t comparable to events like the 1989 protests or Hong Kong in 2019.
The Third Hong Kong’s anti-extradition law protest 第三次反送中遊行
Secondly, there are clear parallels for behaviours in other markets. However, when viewed through the lens of Chinese communist party, the restlessness of their population will further feel their paranoia. Part of this paranoia will be down them knowing that they the current administration has let down the population in a long-standing promise on epidemics, initially made by Mao Zedong.
This betrayal of the people may be emblematic of deep-rooted flaws in the senior party leadership team. To paraphrase Sir James Porter; a party rots from the head down.
Why did it happen?
After a shaky start, that mirrored the early Chinese government response to SARS[i]. China managed its first wave COVID-19 experience successfully using lockdowns to control the spread of the virus. It pursued what was called a Zero COVID policy. They managed to keep the virus largely contained in Wuhan and the local province of Hubei. By the summer the government held it largely under control.[ii]
There was Chinese government censorship internally[iii] and misinformation[iv] externally[v]. By the summer of 2020, COVID was largely under control within China. By August 2020, Wuhan was able to host a giant pool party of unmasked attendees dancing along to a DJ playing EDM, like it was Ibiza on the Yangtze.
China managed to hold COVID down through strict lockdowns through 2021. But by the spring of 2022, there was an infection peak again and further lockdowns have ensued.
Over time, China has attempted to be more granular in its approach to lockdowns over time and called this ‘dynamic zero COVID’. However, lockdowns themselves have implicit risks[vi], for instance research found that a rise in depression and anxiety could see a rise of premature death of 134%[vii]. Research has shown that these factors are particularly acute in medical staff involved in treating COVID-19[viii]. Chinese companies and the government tried to address mental health through digital channels, these responses outstripped existing regulations[ix].
The pressure of COVID lockdowns together with mistakes seems to have produced an environment for the protests to grow.
The BBC coverage paraphrased some of the protestors that they interviewed talking about feeling angry, sad, helpless – in a state of purgatory[x]. One can understand the sense of frustration portrayed and the likelihood of how this can lead to protest in those desperate enough.
Vaccinations with Chinese socialist characteristics
As of July 2022, China had apparently given out over 3 billion vaccines, or enough to have vaccinated the population at least twice and then some[xi]. But the vaccination rate amongst the elderly was significantly lower than other comparable countries by 2022[xii]. This has meant that China is worried about a massive amount of COVID fatalities occurring, if it altered course.
The lower vaccination rates were attributed to a number of factors including misinformation on social media influencing elderly Chinese to self-quarantine instead. Secondly, immune-compromised people in China were sometimes advised by doctors to not take the vaccine. And the Chinese government chose to vaccinate younger working age people first, as they were more likely to come in contact with the virus[xiii].
What happened to drive the Chinese COVID protests?
A series of insights into the world outside China from Xi Jinping at the G20[xiv] to the World Cup Finals in Qatar showed life going on without face masks[xv]. So Chinese COVID protestors would have a good idea that COVID outside China is much less restrictive in nature. This is the reverse of the reaction that happened during the Wuhan pool party, which fuelled debate and more than a bit of envy in some westerners.
Inciting incidents
Then a succession of horrific mistakes by the Chinese government and big business fuelled consumer frustration and anger in the months leading up to the protest:
A bus transporting people to a quarantine facility in Guizhou province killed 27 people and injured another 20[xvi].
Foxconn delayed bonus payments[xvii] to workers locked down on their factory and provided insufficient food for the quarantined workers[xviii]
An apartment block fire in Urumqi, Xinjiang caught fire[xix]. The fire was covered on state television. The ten deaths that occurred were blamed by protestors on COVID lockdown conditions. I want to add that this doesn’t mean that Han Chinese have put aside long-standing prejudice and suddenly feel brotherly solidarity with Uighur citizen[xx]; but they could see the same thing happening to themselves if they got caught in a lockdown. This distinction is important as Han-Uighur solidarity would represent many bigger problems for the Chinese government
The common thread amongst all the inciting events is that Chinese protestors could easily see themselves in the place of victims of these disasters. You can combine this with frustration and a perfect storm for the Chinese COVID protests in major cities. Western coverage has given some weight to those voices who shouted for Xi Jinping to resign[xxi], this doesn’t signify a colour revolution in motion. Instead, these are likely more a measure of frustration with COVID restrictions. But they could be personally and politically embarrassing for Xi Jinping and reinforce existing internal Chinese communist party fears.
Government response to Chinese COVID protests
The communist party looked to censor online channels of the protests[xxii], but netizens kept reposting the content. Since China has a real ID policy for mobile phone numbers and digital accounts these posters knew the risk of being traced by the security apparatus.
Government influenced media and online personalities promoted a narrative that the protests had been instigated by external influence. This immediate leap to speculate on foreign influence is in keeping with Xi Jinping’s vision of constant vigilance and paranoia on internal national security.
The allegations of foreign influence were used to mobilise patriots[xxiii] to try and intimidate foreign journalists during previous crisis, but failed to achieve the same goal this time.
This narrative was anticipated and ridiculed by the protagonists in the Chinese COVID protests[xxiv].
Which foreign forces do you talk about? Karl Marx or Friedrick Engels?
Attributed to a protestor in Beijing
A heavy police presence managed to restrict protestors gathering on subsequent evenings[xxv]. University students have been sent home early from the end of the semester, to prevent further student activism on campus[xxvi]. Chinese authorities immediately set out to track down those who participated in, or supported the protests.
But in Guangzhou, the heavier police presence resulted in a violent clash with protestors. The scene has a ridiculous aspect to it with riot police wearing Tyvek bunny suits to protect themselves against COVID infection[xxvii].
Quiet moves
Some cities in China like Beijing, Guangzhou and Shenzhen have started to ease off from their COVID testing regime in the face of Chinese COVID protests; yet the infection numbers are reaching record rates in the country[xxviii].
China is justifying this, by claiming that Omicron infections were less likely to result in death. Scientific experts disagree[xxix] and point to Hong Kong’s COVID-19 wave during the spring[xxx] as an indicator of what we’re likely to expect in China.
What’s less apparent is how China will improve vaccination rates. China’s inability to force older citizens to vaccinate belies the countries authoritarian nature.
This inability to vaccinate is particularly curious, as it chips away at the Chinese communist party’s legitimacy. It is over 64 years since the founder of modern China Mao Zedong wrote ‘Farewell to the God of Plagues’[xxxi], yet the party under Xi Jinping is still struggling to vanquish COVID-19 after almost three years.
While western media speculates about the reasons why China won’t use more effective foreign vaccines[xxxii], I find the inability to vaccinate the elderly a bigger mystery.
China engaged in foreign interference, by attempting to spam foreign social media platforms to try and crowd out and conceal genuine posts covering the Chinese COVID protests[xxxiii].
What can we learn from other countries experiences with regards the Chinese COVID protests?
China managed to avoid the number of deaths that occurred in other countries so far as we know through lockdowns, quarantine and controlled access to public spaces based on regular testing.
But it isn’t the only country to experience a youth-based resistance to COVID lockdown style restrictions. Kings College London conducted research throughout the COVID pandemic.
As locked down was eased they found that about 24 percent of the population were likely to think that the restrictions should be lifted faster and saw the risks of COVID-19 as being lower than the rest of the population[xxxiv]. During lockdown King’s College London research identified a group called ‘the resisting’[xxxv].
The resisting were about 9 percent of the population. They skewed young and male with a mean age of 29. They were outliers in terms of belief in rumours and have a high usage on social media usage.
A hypothetical Chinese technocrat looking for comfort in these numbers would see a silent majority that is compliant or supportive of COVID prevention measures and that the Chinese COVID protests were done by a young minority. This would also mirror the experience during the 2002 – 2003 SARS outbreak, when people in Zhejiang province protested over the inability of the Chinese government to control the epidemic[xxxvi].
Toronto editions of Hong Kong’s Sing Tao Daily and Taiwan’s World Journal from June 5-7, 1989. Both Hong Kong and Taiwan enjoyed Western-style freedom including freedom of the press, which explains why such newspaper records exist. In China, the event of June 4 1989 is not mentioned anywhere.
The headlines read:
“Bodies pile up in Beijing Massacre. A Hudred Thousand Dead or Wounded” ***
“Fierce fighting continues in Beijing’s east side, troops leave Tiananmen Square”
“U.S., Soviet Union, other countries evacuate their citizens from Beijing”
*** Because of the news blockade and dangerous conditions in Beijing, the very first reports initially said as many as 100,000 were killed or wounded, this was later corrected to as many as 20,000. The most credible estimates suggest between 2,000 and 8,000 casualties.
They would be slightly more alarmed by the calls for Xi Jinping to stand down, and the fact that protestors weren’t just from the middle-class student body but also involved worker protests as well[xxxvii]. However, one could argue that this is a coincidence rather than the cross-class unity[xxxviii] that underpinned a succession of protests across China in 1989[xxxix] culminating in the June 4 massacre.
The US Army’s Land Warrior programme was in development for some 33 years. The idea behind it is that better informed soldiers who are connected to support assets can do more with less and survive.
Chris Capelluto put together a good accessible history of the programme.
Burning chrome
About a decade after the rise of cyberpunk developed as a literature genre, the defence thinkers realised the potential of modern technologies that would have sounded similar to Case’s cyber deck in Neuromancer.
Head up displays, small but connected and powerful networked computers and connected weapon sights of the Land Warrior programme have taken over three decades to fulfil the original vision. Technology takes time, while Land Warrior has taken three plus decades; artificial intelligence is taking a lot longer again.
Human factors
Even now the Land Warrior programme isn’t completely sorted. The Microsoft Halolens AR displays are said to cause debilitating nausea, headaches and eye strain. More than 80% of those who experienced discomfort suffered symptoms within three hours of using the Land Warrior AR headset.
The wearable computer of the Land Warrior programme is an Android powered Smartphone sized device, but would be using very different networks. The network is both the strength and the point of weakness in the Land Warrior programme.
How the networked structures of Land Warrior will fully affect military culture and power structures will be interesting. All of it will be creating tensions in the millennia of ‘hard-wiring’ humans have had since before the dawn of civilisation as we know it and the impact will be much deeper than just the physical tiredness from head up display googles.
Just think about the benefits and ills of social media, or how the world has shrunk through video calls. In my parent’s lifetime, people leaving their homes in Ireland to emigrate to the US or Australia used to have a wake at their leaving. In some respects that departure was a form of death. That is very different to the relationship that I have with family and friends around the world now. Changes coming through from Land Warrior might be equally deep over time.
A lament for the age of apathy | Financial Times – Turnout in the US election of 1996 fell below 50 per cent. In Britain five years later, it was the lowest since the Great war. Most pop culture either side of the millennium wasn’t even allusively or allegorically political. You can read Jane Austen — goes the old line — without knowing that Napoleon was cutting through Europe. You can watch Friends without knowing that America has a government. The peak of the apolitical age was Big Brother, which, in sealing contestants from the news, didn’t disrupt their lives much. – I think a large amount of society still live in that bubble
I was watching this video and I could it imagine something similar being done to describe the luck of many market towns in the west of Ireland with the identikit feel
The video below is a good run down on the short term aspects of the current state of the UK economy. However UK productivity has been going wrong for decades. Several reasons:
The UK relies on services rather than manufacturing – While the UK was in the EU, those factories that remained imported more productive workers from the east. With Brexit the manufacturing and warehouses went east instead along with income tax revenues
The UK has a serious skills gap, there isn’t the prevalence of night colleges any more
The UK has been declining in automation. The classic example is trying to find an automatic car wash. During the 1970s and 1980s these were all over the UK. Now you get a bunch of people with buckets. UK warehouses are much less automated than most other places. This is partly down to several decades of short termism that Will Hutton wrote about back in The State We’re In circa 1995
Brexit has permanently re-eingineered supply chains around the UK
Too much UK investment has gone into real estate, you only have to see all the developments in London and Manchester
Universities are now developed for the benefit of foriegn students rather than domestic talent growth, innovation. And the universities are over leveraged in property development and are likely to go under if there is a reduction in foreign students or a rise in interest rates
Epson to End All Laser Printer Sales by 2026 – ExtremeTech – quietly chosen to stop selling laser printer hardware by 2026. The company will instead focus on its more environmentally-friendly inkjet printers, according to a statement obtained by The Register. Although the company stopped selling laser printers in the United States a while back, it had maintained the line in other markets, including Europe and Asia. Consumers will no longer be able to purchase new Epson laser printers as of 2026, but Epson has promised to continue supporting existing customers via supplies and spare parts. Epson itself claims its inkjets are up to 85 percent more energy efficient than its laser units and produce 85 percent less carbon dioxide. Interesting move, western companies would be virtue signalling the hell out of this.
Really impressive piece of technology and engineering by Sony. But I can’t work out why it was done. By this time Citizen, Casio and Sony were already making LCD televisions. Back in the day Sony used to some products, just because the engineers could. I also love how this looks like a miniature version of a Sony 14″ portable TV circa 1984, even down to the homage to the Trinitron branding.
There seems to be a lack of appreciation for economic trajectory that Hong Kong is on; inextricably linked in China
They don’t seem to understand the political trajectory Hong Kong is on
They aren’t the kind of talent that Hong Kong needs to plug losses in healthcare, education, social services and the creative industries
More developed countries aren’t likely to want ‘stepping stone’ Chinese people from Hong Kong. Their choices might be as limited as are on the mainland
This will only accelerate simmering nativist hostility and more Hong Kongers may leave via BNO visas etc.
If Hong Kong has been in a recession, what must the real state of the China economy be? Are they way worse than PMI and official numbers seem to suggest?
Finally, China has disliked Hong Kong being a vehicle for capital flight. With a greying workforce and declining birth rate will they dislike the talent flight of middle class Chinese through ‘stepping stone’ Hong Kong?
Ideas
Interesting viewpoint on Russia from author Ian Garner. You can find out more about his book here.
China’s puffer jacket obsession: Its not just Moncler and Canada Goose, homegrown brands are taking off | Campaign Asia – Domestic Chinese and international puffer jacket brands are battling for market share in the mainland. We take a look at which names are emerging victorious. China’s puffer jacket obsession: Its not just Moncler and Canada Goose, homegrown brands are taking offWhen temperatures in China started to cool down in early October, one of the biggest fashion trends to return was the puffer jacket. Alongside higher-priced brands like Canada Goose — which saw 20 percent higher sales compared to the previous year — homegrown puffer jacket labels such as Bosideng, Xue Zhong Fei, and Yaya all reported that their gross merchandise value (GMV) growth rate on Tmall exceeded 100 percent. Meanwhile, European brand Moncler sold out of its classic Maya coat on the first day of its debut on Tmall Luxury Pavilion in October.
Media
Why Hong Kong’s outdoor advertising is underperforming | Media | Campaign Asia – Based on a recent study by Hong Kong Baptist University, OOH ads are failing to capture people as they severely lack creativity. Dang, I feel bad for you son, that’s burn to the Hong Kong agency scene right there. Seriously though I would be curious about the methodology
The $300 Million Sneaker King Comes Undone – WSJ – In May, Mr. Malekzadeh’s fiancée—also the company’s finance chief—pushed for both of them to come clean, according to people familiar with the situation. Federal prosecutors a few months later charged the couple with bank fraud and Mr. Malekzadeh with wire fraud and money laundering. Customers claim they paid millions of dollars for shoes that never arrived. A court-appointed receiver is sorting out the remaining inventory of the entrepreneur’s company, Zadeh Kicks. Early last year, Mr. Malekzadeh collected orders for about 600,000 pairs of Air Jordan 11 Cool Grey sneakers months before they hit stores, netting over $70 million, according to prosecutors. He priced the sneakers between $115 and $200 a pair, cheaper than their expected retail price of around $225
