Categories
经济 | economics | 경제학

Reagonomic time bomb

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According to a number of reports the clock is ticking on the US economy and the dollar before it goes into meltdown.

The key factors for consideration according to the Asian Times article ‘Crisis towers over the dollar’:

  • The total US public national debt now exceeds 7 trillion USD
  • When Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, military and government pensions are added in, the total national debt exceeds 51 trillion USD, according to Fortune magazine – that’s nearly five times the gross domestic product (GDP)
  • The current year’s deficit alone approaches 1 trillion USD when you add the off-budget items
  • Derivatives (highly leveraged and enormously risky instruments such as interest-rate futures, options and swaps) now total 180 trillion USD, 17 times the GDP. Even government-sponsored enterprises such as Fannie Mae (the Federal National Mortgage Association) and Freddie Mac (the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corp) use derivatives heavily

  • The total US consumer debt is more than 8 trillion USD
  • The US government funding gap is some 54 trillion USD

A leading proponent of this bearish assessment is Morgan Stanley’s principle economist Stephen Roach. Roach is said by the Boston Herald of having given the US economy no more than a one in ten chance of avoiding a meltdown. You can read the article here.

In Morgan Stanley’s own Global Economic Forum digests, the thinking of their global team of economists is distilled for fund managers. The digest of November 26, 2004 highlights Fed chairman Alan Greenspan’s belief that the world is not likely to continue to fund US debt.In a recent webcast Roach warned of a possible ‘disorderly’ correction to the imbalances in the dollar and a possible trade war with China.

Categories
法 | legal | 법률학

Hack with sense of humour

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IT company SCO is currently involved in a legal argument over allegedly copied software ending up in Linux. Kudos to The Inq for flagging up this subversive website hack. Makes a pleasant difference from the usual scrawlings on site defacements. At the time of writing this was still up on the SCO site, though this will change when the SCO webmaster gets into work. Posted by Hello

Categories
买东西 | shopping | 쇼핑 商业 | business | 상업

Unwins off-licence

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My colleague Jonathan has some inside skinny on cheap alcohol this Christmas via Unwins off-licence. According to his contacts Unwins the off licence chain is allegedly being bought out by Oddbins and so clearing its inventory by providing good prices on champagne. So if the white van man doesn’t do deliveries in your area Unwins may be worth a visit. To find your nearest branch start hit Yell.com.

About Unwins

As Britain`s largest family-owned independent wine merchant, founded in 1843; with over 400 shops in the South of England, they pride themselves as one of the few remaining truly specialist wine merchants.