Ged Carroll

Month: May 2022

  • Metaverse discussion paper

    I have put together a metaverse discussion paper. This post is the executive summary of the metaverse discussion paper. The full paper has much more context including context on the history of the metaverse, the current reality and separating out the hype.

    This originally started as a discussion paper drafted during quiet moments at work. Client work got in the way developing it further. I didn’t have time to complete writing the metaverse discussion paper beyond an outline and supporting research.  

    A good deal of my work is to do with brand experience. So, it made sense for me to dig in and find out more about the metaverse from the perspective of what it means to brands. I structured my approach in understanding the metaverse, in terms of: 

    • What is currently being said 
    • The past developments leading up to the metaverse
    • Possible futures

    How to use the metaverse discussion paper

    This document contains a large amount of content. I would advise that you read the executive summary and everything else you can dive into as your muse or boredom strikes you. 

    The link to the full metaverse discussion paper is at the bottom of the post. I am giving it away for free under a Creative Commons Attribution – No Derivatives licence.

    Metaverse Final
    Available for free download at the bottom of the post.

    Executive summary

    The current state of the metaverse and the technology sectors attitude to it can be best understood through the words of a mid-20th century political thinker Ivan Chtcheglov. Chtcheglov reflected on an illusory imagined construction.

    And you, forgotten, your memories ravaged by all the consternations of two hemispheres, stranded in the Red Cellars of Pali-Kao, without music and without geography, no longer setting out for the hacienda where the roots think of the child and where the wine is finished off with fables from an old almanac. That’s all over. You’ll never see the hacienda. It doesn’t exist.

    The hacienda must be built.[1]

    What became apparent as I researched for this document was how companies were trying to solve problems that were a small part of what will be needed for a metaverse. This is because the metaverse as envisaged in science fiction and technology as ‘thought leadership’ will require a wide range of technology problems to be solved. For instance, the current technologists haven’t been able to surpass the vivid experiences created in mid-to-late 20th century cinemas and theme parks. 

    Broadly the technology challenges would be characterised as:

    • Scalability 
    • Believable and immersive
    • Open and portable in nature from a technology perspective
    • Decentralized 
    • Traversable – the ability to ‘travel’ around and between worlds
    • Able to conduct commerce and exchange
    • Social
    • Secure and trusted

    Many companies have deep expertise in some parts of the metaverse problem. Some work builds on decades of work in areas such as virtual reality and haptic technology. But these areas haven’t progressed with the kind of pace one would expect from Moore’s Law.[2] Technologists are trying to work out how existing technologies, like distributed databases, games physics engines and realistic computer rendering could be used to solve some of the problems needed to be addressed to build a future metaverse. 

    What we saw with the web, but are not seeing with the metaverse at the moment is collaboration. There isn’t open collaborative work towards a maturing standards environment necessary for interoperability as well as a solid direction to help define future metaverse technologies. The lack of collaboration makes it hard to predict, if or when we would be likely to see a metaverse. We can speculate how the future supporting technologies for the metaverse might net out based on heuristics like Moore’s Law or Metcalfe’s Law[3].[4] It would be impossible to speculate on the realpolitik required to build the ‘metaverse’ and what would drive its universal adoption over time. 

    But that isn’t stopping companies thinking about how the metaverse work with their brands. Governments are also giving a lot of thought to the coming metaverse including:

    • The provision of services in a ‘metaverse’ environment
    • How to manage market competition
    • Understanding the potential of the metaverse to foment social disturbances and imperil security 

    Since the metaverse, doesn’t currently exist as envisaged, it makes sense to look for analogues. These analogues include social trends in highly evolved technology markets and precursor technologies such as gaming and VR. The goal of the research would be to try and understand what it might look like when digital immersive experiences become commonplace.   

    Consultants like Forrester Research[5] and McKinsey are recommending that organisations get involved with precursors to learn, but also temper their expectations. There is a limitation to this approach, technology and culture evolve with use. Scale changes things further. Norms that were established when platforms have 100,000s of users evolve or fade away when the user number goes to 100s of millions or even billions. 

    One of the ways that this research happens is through a resurgence of technologist and marketer interest in virtual worlds like Roblox and AltspaceVR. These virtual worlds allow experimentation to discover what works (and what doesn’t) far in advance of the future metaverse. Deloitte Consulting considered that one of the three business model scenarios for the metaverse was what they termed a ‘Low Orbit’ where the metaverse like VR, continues to be used for niche rather than general purpose uses. The current virtual worlds lean more towards the ‘Low Orbit’ model. The current belief[6] that games are the metaverse falls firmly into the ‘Low Orbit’ model. 

    Assuming for a moment that businesses manage to retain and build on the body of knowledge they get through this experimentation they will hopefully answer questions like:

    • Using VR early adopters as a proxy for metaverse users, what works from a marketing effectiveness perspective, in driving brand awareness and brand activation?
    • How effective are virtual world experiences in terms of brand awareness and brand activation? How does it benchmark against web-based media, mobile apps, out of home (OOH), cinema and broadcast media like connected and conventional television? 
    • What are the dos and don’ts acquired through experimentation in virtual worlds from user experience design perspective for brands?
    • How would a virtual world assist in digital consumer testing and virtual crowdsourcing before committing to manufacture an item at scale? What are the strengths and limitations in this approach?
    • What tactics are drive brand awareness in a virtual world in an effective manner?
    • When do experiences get old and have to be refreshed? 
    • How can the brand be a better citizen in the virtual world? How much interaction is required with ‘real’ brand ambassadors?

    Some of the platforms like Meta’s Horizon Worlds and Animoca Brands’ The Sandbox hope to be the metaverse. They desire to incorporate the consumers entire perceived metaverse. An analogue to the business models of Horizon Worlds or The Sandbox would be walled garden ‘super apps’ WeChat and the Taobao that currently represent most of the consumer mobile web in China today. Or the walled garden ‘desktop web’ experience[7] of AOL[8] in pre-broadband America. Deloitte Consulting outlined this approach as one of their likely business model scenarios of the metaverse. They called it a ‘Double Star’. 

    Platforms face a big challenge; consumer expectations are well over a decade ahead of what the technology can actually deliver. 

    Even if the technology is successful, the challenge for brands, walled garden and open metaverse platforms are many. Here are two of the biggest challenges to get started:

    • How do brands and platforms show that sufficient effort has been done to keep users safe? This isn’t only about filtering content, but filtering behaviour. Will post-censure of bad behaviour be sufficient? Will the environment be sufficiently safe for brands to participate and advertise? 

    In a world of ESG[9] considerations, would an energy intensive virtual pleasure palace be too much for investors or purpose-driven brand owners like BlackRock, Proctor & Gamble or Unilever?

    [1] Chtcheglov, I.V. (1953) Formulaire pour un urbanisme nouveau. France – http://www.bopsecrets.org/SI/Chtcheglov.htm

    [2] Gregersen, E. (July 21, 2011) Moore’s Law. United States: Encyclopaedia Britannica – https://www.britannica.com/technology/Moores-law

    [3]  Metcalfe, R. (August 18, 2006) Guest Blogger Bob Metcalfe: Metcalfe’s Law Recurses Down the Long Tail of Social Networks. United States: VCMike via wordpress.com – https://vcmike.wordpress.com/2006/08/18/metcalfe-social-networks/

    [4] Shapiro, C. and Varian, H.R. (1999). Information Rules. United States: Harvard Business Press

    [5] Proulx, M., Ask, J., Bennett, M., Gownder, J.P., & Truog, D. (March 29, 2022) There Is No Metaverse Today, But Be Prepared. United States: Forrester Research – https://www.forrester.com/blogs/there-is-no-metaverse-today-but-be-prepared/

    [6] Whatley, J. (May 17, 2022) The metaverse doesn’t exist! You’re talking about gaming. United Kingdom: The Drum – https://www.thedrum.com/opinion/2022/05/17/the-metaverse-doesn-t-exist-you-re-talking-about-gaming

    [7] (September 4, 2000) AOL’s ‘Walled Garden’. United States: The Wall Street Journal – https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB968104011203980910?reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

    [8] America Online

    [9] Environmental, Social and Governance criteria. Standards used by socially conscious investors as a way to filter investment decisions. More here – https://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/environmental-social-and-governance-esg-criteria.asp

    Click here. Available for free: Metaverse – Reality, Hype & Futures

    I have more on technologies that blur the line between online and offline here.

  • Bongbong Marcos + more things

    Bongbong Marcos

    Bongbong Marcos aka Ferdinand Romualdez Marcos Jr is the son of former Filipino president Ferdinand Marcos. The Asia Society did a really good talk on the election which explains what got Bongbong Marcos elected as president of the Philippines. Yes there was a lot of misinformation and sketchy tactics by the Bongbong Marcos campaign, but there is more going on.

    Marcos Fiesta-20150912-090-IM0P1343

    Much of the issue seems to be that Marcos is viewed as standing against local Filipino dynasties that have most of the economic power in the country. I found this particularly interesting as Bongbong Marcos and his running mate Sara Duterte are both from dynasty families.

    Marcos’ mother Imelda had a dad who as a lawyer, an uncle who was a supreme court judge, a cousin who was in the lower house of parliament and her brother was a provincial governor. On his father’s side, Bongbong’s grandfather was a lawyer and politician, and the mother was a school teacher. While both of Bongbong’s parents had known poverty, they could rely on a strong powerful network of family ties to help get them good jobs. Ferdinand Marcos even managed to get away with murder in 1939.

    Bongbong Marcos is supposed to be stuffing people he can trust through blood ties into key government and political positions such as speaker of the house and ministerial roles.

    Opposition party strategy

    The Marcos campaign managed to play on nostalgia for older voters and addressed young voters through TikTok. The opposition party strategy failed in online marketing. Misinformation was an aggravating factor.

    Corrosion of liberal democracy

    The average Filipino voter doesn’t feel invested in democracy in the same way that the middle class would be. 7 out of 10 surveyed by Pew wouldn’t mind an authoritarian leader like Bongbong Marcos – so Marcos was pushing against an open door. The middle classes are looking for ‘order and discipline’ rather than dysfunction. They think that economic success and freedom are mutually exclusive. They look to the United Arab Emirates and Singapore as exemplars. There are similarities with middle income countries like Modi in India, Erdoğan in Turkey, Urban in Hungary and Bolsonaro in Brazil.

    From an economic perspective what does Bongbong Marcos mean? Noah Smith made their most optimistic take on the economics of the Philippines Can the Philippines sustain its growth? – by Noah Smith. An authoritarian Bongbong Marcos government might see the departure of foreign companies who have been responsible for powering the past two decades of economic growth in the Philippines. The only reason why you might not see a foreign multi-national company exit would be ‘de-Chinaisation’ of global supply chains.  

    Business

    BMW and Audi suspend shipments by train to China | Financial Times – that takes out the belt out of the belt and road initiative

    China

    ARM China staff post open letter pledging loyalty to … eeNews Analog – “The ARM Technology team will adhere to the leadership of Allen Wu, unswervingly follow the path of independent and self-improvement development, and work together to build ARM Technology into a great Chinese technology company!” – if this isn’t a warning for investors in China I don’t know what is – Arm China’s renegade chief makes his last stand | Financial Times 

    China’s secret property empire | The Spectator 

    China’s exporters battered by lockdowns and global inflation | Financial Times 

    China Orders Government, State Firms to Replace Foreign Computers – Bloomberg 

    COSCO: China’s shipping giant expands its global influence – Nikkei Asia – interesting that COSCO is the one shipper still going to Russia

    Siemens to discontinue business in Russia – eeNews Europe – Siemens stopped all new business with and international deliveries to Russia and Belarus. The comprehensive international sanctions and the current and potential countermeasures are affecting the company’s business activities in Russia – especially its railway service and maintenance business. For companies that are mainly active in B2B business, the decision to completely exit a region is more difficult to make than for companies that sell consumer goods. The reason: contracts for the maintenance of industrial plants and trains are concluded for many years, sometimes decades – this is an opportunity for Chinese railway businesses

    Firms as Revenue Safety Nets: Political Connections and Returns to the Chinese State | The China Quarterly | Cambridge Core – restructured state-owned enterprises (SOEs) with political connections pay more tax than their assessed amount, independent of profits, in exchange for more preferential access to key inputs and policy opportunities controlled by the state. Examining taxes rather than profits also offers a new interpretation for why China continues to favour its remaining SOEs even when they are less profitable – it also explains why apparently inefficient SOEs get so many bank loans from state owned banks

    Consumer behaviour

    Older workers in higher-paid industries are joining the Great Resignation – Vox – I’d like to see more data on this. Is it a choice for them and will it be changed by higher inflation?

    Does Aging Make You More Susceptible to Fake News? | Technology Networks – this fit in with findings by Kings College London on the resisting as a younger fake-news believing set of people

    People trust AI fake faces more than real ones, research suggests 

    Why Is Y2K Style Still Happening?! An Analysis of a Wild Trend | High Snobriety 

    California’s demography is at odds with the old California Dream | The Economist – The population fell to 39.2m in the year to January 2022, 400,000 lower than in 2020 (see chart). In 1990, the number of Californians had been rising by a robust 2.5% a year. The biggest contribution to the decline came from migration. In 2021, the net change (people moving out of state minus those moving in) was twice as large as the number of covid deaths and four times the population’s natural change (the excess of deaths over births). Big cities have been hit hardest; the population of Los Angeles County has fallen for the past four years. Even if these declines were no worse than average—and national demographic trends are slowing, too—they might seem worse in a state where, as its governor once said, “the future happens here first”. In fact California’s demography is worse than average. The state’s total fertility rate (tfr, an estimate of the number of children women will bear over their lifetimes) fell from 2.2 in 2006 to 1.5 in 2020, more than in America as a whole, where the fall was from 2.1 to 1.6.

    Culture

    How Graffiti Became Gentrified | The New Republic 

    Economics

    How China-backed projects made Sri Lanka’s economic meltdown worse | South China Morning Post 

    Energy

    VW sells out of electric cars in Europe and US | Financial Times 

    Buffett-backed BYD’s shares drop after launch of pollution probe | Financial Times – is it BYD or is it something else?

    Finance

    Beijing orders ‘stress test’ as fears of Russia-style sanctions mount | China | The Guardian 

    Hong Kong

    Will Hong Kong reopen for business under new leader Lee? Yahoo! News – not open for business basically

    Arrest of Cardinal Zen send chills through Hong Kong’s Catholic church | Financial Times – a diocesan administrator tendered their resignation over a posting on the “Catholic Way” Facebook page on April 27. The post, which was quickly deleted, summarised a television interview in which a local priest accused China of attempting to control religion in Hong Kong. The diocese said the administrator had resigned of their own accord. The police investigation of the 612 Humanitarian Relief Fund, of which Zen was a trustee and which supported pro-democracy protesters, could also have implications for Hong Kong’s legal system. Police said on Thursday that they had complained to the Bar Association and Law Society about alleged misconduct by unnamed lawyers who took on the fund’s cases

    Hongkongers in Britain | 英國港僑協會 – great resource for Hong Kongers moving to the UK

    Ideas

    Talking about white privilege online can backfire – Futurity – The relationship between question language and the content of the responses was mediated by their support or opposition to renaming buildings. This suggests that, rather than causing people to think differently about the world, the term white privilege causes an emotional reaction which then affects their response, Quarles says. Inclusive ways of speaking about race online, such as the term “racial inequality,” are more likely to create a sense of shared purpose, he says. Policymakers who want to promote racial equity should consider how their language can either unite people or alienate potential allies, he says. – but this doesn’t understand that white privilege as a term comes from left-wing thinking and isn’t designed for dialogue. The emotional reaction is elicited by design as part of the narrative of ideological struggle. Either the party is worn down to the ideology or they are part of the enemy, which is then followed to its conclusion in Stalinism

    Innovation

    AMD to roll out 5nm processors as early as September 

    State of Venture Q1’22 Report – CB Insights Research – unsurprisingly, higher interest rates have a negative effect on VC funding of businesses and a slight decline in the number of new unicorns being minted

    Recovery for Bosch as it warns of slowdown – eeNews Europe – It’s worth taking a closer look at how the war affects climate action. My assessment is nuanced: in the short term, the acute conflict will slow progress in reducing carbon emissions, but in the long term, it will accelerate the technological transformation in Europe – Bosch also particularly keen on green hydrogen

    Could digital printing ease supply chain disruptions? | Vogue Business 

    IBM aims for 4000 qubit quantum computer – eeNews Europe 

    EETimes – A Post-Moore’s Law World 

    EETimes – As Classic Moore’s Law Dims, Heterogeneous Integration Steps Into the Limelight 

    Japan

    Japan passes law aimed at China guarding economic security, technology, supply chains | South China Morning Post 

    The pervasive succession crisis threatening Japan’s economy | Financial Times 

    Korea

    ‘Fashion has no age’: the stylish senior citizens of Seoul | South Korea | The Guardian 

    Luxury

    Lex in depth: why the luxury market needs to hedge against China | Financial Times – Customers at the exclusive Shinsegae department store in the Gangnam district of Seoul prefer to display their wealth discreetly. But their high spending was exposed to the wider world when it revealed annual sales had topped $2bn in 2021 — the highest turnover for a single store in the world. It outpaced even Harrods in London, which before the coronavirus pandemic had long held the world’s top spot

    Materials

    Why Is Plastic Bad for the Environment? This New Material Will Explain | Architectural Digest 

    Media

    Sony rejects China’s censorship request in ‘Spiderman’ | New York Post 

    Online

    Inside TikTok’s Explosive Growth – by Alex Kantrowitz 

    Security

    Quantum computers: Encryption technique could stop scammers from faking their location | New Scientist 

    Because of Ukraine, America’s arsenal of democracy is depleting | The Economist – challenges in supply chain and manufacturing

    ICE ‘now operates as a domestic surveillance agency,’ think tank says | Engadget 

    EU plans to require backdoor to encrypted messages for child protection | AppleInsider – “When executing the detection order, providers should take all available safeguard measures to ensure that the technologies employed by them cannot be used by them or their employees for purposes other than compliance with this Regulation,” says the proposal, “nor by third parties, and thus to avoid undermining the security and confidentiality of the communications of users.” – congratulations EU you’ve just empowered authoritarian regimes and risked the lives of millions elsewhere

    Technology

    RISC-V chip designed with open source tools – eeNews Europe – ARM should be worried

    Web of no web

    Apple WebXR: Web-based AR doesn’t work on iPhones – Protocol 

    Wireless

    Wi-Fi 7 home mesh routers aim to hit 33Gbps | Ars Technica 

  • Suzume no Tojimari & more stuff

    Suzume no Tojimari is the latest anime from Makoto Shinkai. Suzume no Tojimari seems to share the same universe as some of Shinkai-san’s other films: Your Name and Weathering with You. Suzume no Tojimari goes from a rural town in the South, through the modern ruins that punctuate modern Japan.

    Everyday footage of Japan in the 1990s

    One of the great things about Japan being at the forefront of high-definition video standards is that you get a good deal of high quality footage of what everyday looked like in the 1980s and 1990s covering the bubble era and the immediate aftermath.

    This seems to be footage for a demonstration recording, that I presume was commissioned by Sony. (Mainly because none of the other consumer electronics manufacturers would feature the Sony buildings front and centre in the footage of the opening shot). I suspect that the shots might be relatively short due to storage considerations on the cameras being used.

    By contrast, here is a modern constant stream of street life in present day Tokyo, Japan.

    https://youtu.be/S_bxc_AFUZU

    Original jungle samples

    I have been fascinated by the YouTube channel original jungle samples for a while. They track down the constituent samples that made up many drum and bass tracks, putting the original sources up against their use so you can see how they were transformed. This one profiling M-Beat is a great example of the work that they do.

    Obesity science

    BBC’s current affairs programme Panorama scratched the surface on the public health challenge of obesity. I know a fair bit about the subject area as I have been working on a global launch for Novo Nordisk’s obesity franchise. What quickly becomes apparent from the programme is the misalignment between scientific understanding of obesity as a complex chronic condition, current treatment techniques and government policy.

    Song Lim Shoemaking

    I am a big fan of videos that show how something is made. This is a video of how hiking boots are made as a bespoke process by Song Lim Shoemaking.

    Creativity. Its what makes us

    I am a big fan of going to see exhibitions and museums. It refreshes me and helps me have a clean slate in terms of thinking. It is interesting to see the V&A lean into this with a two minute film to get creatives back into museum visits.

    Steroids as a popular drug

    Vice digs into why steroids has become popular. It comes back to visions of modern masculinity and self image. Maybe because I came up in Liverpool during the late 1980s and early 1990s steroids were a common thing back then, rather than the more recent development that Vice seems to think that it is.

  • Supply chain technology + more news

    Will supply chain technology facilitate problematic global supply chain management?

    Investors Are Piling Into Supply-Chain Technology – WSJ – Newly minted unicorns, or companies that exceed $1 billion valuations, in the logistics sector in 2021 include e-commerce fulfillment specialist ShipBob Inc., digital warehouse and distribution provider Stord Inc. and Flock Freight, a platform that matches shipper loads to trucks and is backed by a venture arm of Japan-based conglomerate SoftBank Group Corp. Backers including big investment funds are pumping money into logistics technology at a rapid pace, driving up valuations for digital-focused ventures across freight, delivery and warehousing. The influx of cash is giving startups in a once-overlooked sector expanded access to capital to build out their businesses, particularly for the top companies that have already developed their core products, according to venture-capital executives who focus on logistics and supply chains. Supply-chain technology startups raised $24.3 billion in venture funding in the first three quarters of 2021, 58% more than the full-year total for 2020, according to analytics firm PitchBook Data Inc. Besides venture-capital firms, backers included global investment managers like Tiger Global Management LLC and Coatue Management LLC and the venture arms of large corporations such as shipping giant A.P. Moller-Maersk A/S and Koch Industries Inc. And then you have Venture capitalists chase industrial tech start-ups as supply shocks widen | CNBC  – this reminds me of the B2B dot com frenzy around companies like GoIndustry, i2 Technologies and JDA Software / Blue Yonder.

    Supply chain technology underpins supply chain management (SCM). SCM as a term sprang out of management consultancy Booz Allen Hamilton in 1982. But the originals of supply chain technology go back much further. Railway companies were experimenting with barcode type readers with British Rail having a system that read the codes on trains passing at 100mph error free. This system was eventually shut down when British Rail was privatised. In the US they were using KarTrak in the late 1960s, but that was later abandoned. The codes were incorporated into the computer software used to schedule freight rail transport. Shipping containers sprung out of work done for the US military and were proved successful in Korea. The standards for the ‘intermodal’ container where hammered out from 1968 through 1972 covering everything from the containers themselves to safe handling. So you had a standard box and a method of tracking it, which is at the core of supply chain technology.

    Containers did a number of things:

    • It helped prevent ‘shrinkage’. Seiko no longer had to worry about shrinkage due to dockers kicking in the corner of a crate to steal a watch or ten and sell them down the pub.
    • It encouraged automation of docks and handling, reducing the amount of unskilled labour required
    • Simplified freight forwarding and handling through standardisation
    • Facilitated easier global supply chains. Goodyear would know how many tractor tyres it could fit in a 40 foot trailer and ship from Singapore. The ports of Singapore and Hong Kong managed to parlay their use of logistics management software to move containers faster, which proved to be a competitive advantage for a number of years, even after Hong Kong deindustrialised with the mainland opening up

    Once logistics management was in place, attention could be turned to sourcing, procurement and the integration of enterprise resource planning to provide an end-to-end picture through supply chain technology. The Japanese developed a lot of management practices designed to master supply chain management and these practices drove a wider demand for supply chain technology.

    Packet network infrastructure provided a way to connect systems from channel partners, intermediaries and third party suppliers with a company through a standard interface for supply chain technology to work. What is called EDI or electronic data interchange. The rise of the web made it even easier which is why you had a plethora of supply chain technology companies to simplified the process of EDI. They democratised supply chain technology.

    It also allowed retailers like Tesco to use supply chain technology to become vertically integrated from upstream suppliers and downstream customers.

    China

    Ex-President of China Merchants Bank Investigated for Suspected Corruption | Caixin Global – China Merchants Bank is huge. Londoners might be familiar with the brand from the extensive advertising CMB have done aimed at Chinese tourists every summer since the Olympics. Scandals are also changing marketing: Why Are Athletes Becoming Luxury Brands’ Ambassadors of Choice in China? – problem is due to show business stars reputation from being effeminate looking men to corruption, tax evasion and sex abuse scandals like their business titan peers

    互联网与中国后现代性呓语 

    Divergent views on China’s investment landscape | Financial Times – JPMorgan last month called China’s internet sector, once an engine of growth, “uninvestable”. Many big investors have headed for the exits. This week we revealed that Weijian Shan, the chair of PAG, a $50bn fund and one of Asia’s biggest investors, has diversified away from China.

    Consumer behaviour

    UK consumer confidence plunges to near-record low | Financial Times 

    Culture

    Terence Donovan captures the hedonism of Birmingham’s ’90s… – The Face 

    Design

    Google Tests Hidden Interfaces Which Remain Invisible Unless They’re Used / Digital Information World 

    Ethics

    The age taboo in workplaces means we miss out on talent | Financial Times – Research by two Harvard psychologists, Tessa Charlesworth and Mahzarin Banaji, suggests that negative stereotypes of ageing are actually more persistent than those about race and gender. Drawing on data from more than 4mn tests of conscious and unconscious bias, they have found that attitudes to sexual orientation, race and skin tone have improved during the past decade, compared to stubborn biases about age and disability, and increasing negativity about people who are overweight. Charlesworth and Banaji predict that anti-gay bias could reach “neutrality” in 20 years’ time, but that on current trends it will take 150 years for the same to happen to ageism. The raw reality is that older workers tend to be more expensive than younger ones, and are more vulnerable to cuts to middle management. But it may be a false economy to lower initial salary costs by hiring the young, if familiarity with procedures and teamwork are lost

    FMCG

    Investigating the Pink Tax: Evidence Against a Systematic Price Premium for Women in CPG by Sarah Moshary, Anna Tuchman, Natasha Bhatia :: SSRN – We find that women’s products are more expensive in some categories (e.g., deodorant) but less expensive in others (e.g., razors). Further, in an apples-to-apples comparison of women’s and men’s products with similar ingredients, the women’s variant is less expensive in three out of five categories. Our results call into question the need for and efficacy of recently proposed and enacted legislation mandating price parity across gendered products. – so there is actually a ‘blue tax’ rather than a pink tax

    Hong Kong

    The Black Box: My Experience in Hong Kong’s Prisons During the Pandemic Lockdown 

    Some Hong Kong women would rather die alone than date Hong Kong men — Quartz 

    Ideas

    On Collaboration — Tom Darlington

    British Historian Antony Beevor: “Putin Wants to Be Feared – Like Stalin and Hitler” – DER SPIEGEL – the liberal West is now facing a decline, and even possibly a collapse, in confidence in parliamentary democracy. The heroic resistance of Ukraine is perhaps the only hope that we will recognize in time the dangers of the general slide towards authoritarianism in an increasingly Manichaean world – that is to say, a new dualism of two power blocs confronting each other: one with a free and liberal stance, and one without.

    The cognitive dissonance of corporate life | Financial Times – employers’ efforts to drag people back into the office by offering them “perks” from free snacks to company swag. One particularly eager (and rich) organisation offered workers who were willing to trek back in the chance to win a Tesla. But Spiers, like me, isn’t biting. “I’ve come to think of these corporate toys and rewards as the work equivalent of the cheap prizes you win at a carnival after emptying your wallet to play the games,” she writes. “The difference is that the point of the carnival is to have fun and the prizes are incidental. In the workplace, this is just a laughably terrible trade-off. Who wants to give up the two hours a day they gain by not commuting for a free coffee mug? – interesting challenge that probably only a recession will right

    Digitally-Native Jobs, Self-Employment, and the Antiwork Movement 

    Indonesia

    Indonesia’s new law removes redtapes for foreign investors | DigiTimes – With abundant natural resources and young labor, Indonesia attracts – and needs – more foreign investment. The three largest foreign investors in Indonesia are Singapore, China (including Hong Kong), and Japan. Data provided by Indonesia’s Ministry of Investment (BKPM) showed that in the first three quarters of 2021, Singapore accounted for 32% of the total foreign investment, Hong Kong 13.8%, China 10%, and Japan 7.7%. – its also a great option for the move away from Chinese manufacturing

    Innovation

    Bosch snaps up Fraunhofer MEMS microspeaker spinout – eeNews Europe 

    Korea

    Young Rich Koreans Are Worth on Average W6.6 Billion – The Chosun Ilbo (English Edition)

    Luxury

    Kering: China’s lockdown takes much of the blame for Gucci’s crimped sales | Financial Times – I’d be more worried by how dependent they are on Chinese mainland sales

    Crypto crackdown stifles China’s ability to offshore cash | Financial Times – With the government applying more scrutiny to digital asset transactions, one of the oldest and most conventional methods to bypass capital controls is gaining popularity: the luxury collectible trade. While it’s difficult to bring suitcases filled with cash through customs, a Tang dynasty-era vase or a couple of Patek Philippe watches can easily pass as personal belongings. Rich buyers can purchase them in China and resell outside the country. Indeed, demand for designer time pieces is taking off, high-end watch sellers in China told the FT. One wealthy Chinese heir also told the FT about another existing loophole, in which Chinese developers building condo projects in Thailand or Malaysia market them at home, and accept renminbi. Once properties are purchased, they can be sold locally into currencies that can be more easily exchanged into dollars – this probably explains why auction houses Sotheby’s and Phillips have expanded their Hong Kong operations

    Media

    Netflix is not a tech company — Benedict Evans – back in 1992, just as the ‘Internet’ was starting to sound interesting, a company in the UK used technology to disrupt television. 

    Rupert Murdoch’s Sky realised that you could buy football rights for far more than anyone had ever thought of paying before, and you could make your money back by selling the games on subscription instead of pay-per-view or advertising, and you would be able to deliver that subscription using encrypted satellite channels. This was a big deal, both for Sky and for the UK Premiership league, and it was the beginning of something much bigger. 

    Sky used technology as a crowbar to build a new TV business. Everything about how it executed that technology had to be good, and by and large it was. The box was good, the UI was good, the truck-rolls were good, and the customer service and experience were good. Unlike American cable subscribers, Sky subscribers in the UK are generally pretty happy with the tech. The tech has to be good – but, it’s still all about the TV. If Sky had been showing reruns of MASH and I Love Lucy no-one would have signed up. Sky used tech as a crowbar, and the crowbar had to be good, but it’s actually a TV company. 

    I look at Netflix in very much the same way today. Netflix realised that you could spend far more money on far more hours of scripted drama than anyone had ever spent before, and you could (hopefully) make your money back by selling it on subscription directly to consumers instead of going through aggregators, using a new technology, broadband internet, that both gave you that access and made it possible for people to browse that vast selection of shows – and this: Ads are coming to Netflix: What do top media buyers and analysts think? – It’s plausible that Netflix will play a key role in driving the roll out of hybrid AVOD/SVOD around the world. Today, such models are mostly found in the U.S. and in Asia, but should Netflix add this on a global basis, it could be the next big thing. It’d force others to move beyond pure paid-for streaming models. I’ve long argued that it is unsustainable to expect customers to buy more than five SVOD services — so hybrid models are part of the solution as it eases the pressure on consumer wallets. 

    Ad agencies have persistently asked Netflix over the last few years to start running ads on the service. But they’ve been firmly against this until now. However, as Netflix management said on the investor call, what has changed is that this is a proven model that works: Hulu, HBO Max and Disney+ are doing it, so of course

    Online

    Go beyond the search box: Introducing multisearch – this Google redesign reminds me of much of the experience in search pioneered by you.com. Google needs to reinvent its search offering, early adopters are finding it much less useful then previously – Google search engine is not up to the mark, irrelevant ads and spam disappoint users. Here’s all you need to know / Digital Information World 

    Security

    France says Russian mercenaries staged ‘French atrocity’ in Mali | Mali | The Guardian 

    Singapore

    Singaporeans must benefit’: expats fleeing Hong Kong meet rising resentment | Financial Times – Chia is not alone in holding anti-expat beliefs. Over the past decade, perceptions that international employers have discriminated against locals have placed increasing pressure on the government to clamp down on immigration. While some anger has been directed towards manual labourers from elsewhere in Asia, Singaporeans are also frustrated by the significant proportion of westerners that make up the city’s elite workforce. After the recession triggered by the coronavirus pandemic refocused attention on employment and inequality in Singapore, the discontent has intensified. Experts warned that an influx of white-collar staff from Hong Kong risked deepening tensions, complicating Singapore’s bid to attract foreign money and talent. – Singapore’s answer to populism?

    Telecoms

    EETimes – CAN FD: Anything But Automotive Only – controller area networking. Uses connectors including RS232

    The military race for low Earth orbit satellites – and why China is behind | South China Morning Post – LEO satellite broadband projects going on in addition to Elon Musk’s StarLink – In Europe, Germany-based Airbus Defence and Space has teamed up with satellite internet firm OneWeb to provide services to the military. Canadian firm Telesat, partly funded by Ottawa, is eyeing the US Defence Department as a customer for its global LEO internet service, which is expected to start in 2024. Amazon’s Kuiper project also has been approved to launch 3,236 satellites but has been tight-lipped on its plans in the defence market. In China, LEO satellite internet is a fledgling industry working to connect remote parts of China and countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative. GalaxySpace, a private start-up in a field of state-owned giants, launched China’s first LEO broadband constellation comprising six satellites in March. But state media reports have described them as commercial and made no reference to military services. Separate state-owned enterprises also launched test satellites for the Hongyun and Hongyan LEO broadband projects in 2018 but little has been said publicly about them since. Another state-owned company, China Satellite Network Group, aims to create a Chinese version of Starlink but was only formed last year

    Web of no web

    LVMH’s Arnault is wary of the metaverse “bubble”. Should luxury be? | Vogue Business 

  • Scientific slow down + more things

    Scientific slow down as a brake on innovation

    An interesting essay on the nature of scientific slow down that applies as much to applied innovation as well – Scientific slowdown is not inevitable – Works in Progress – The most popular version of the low-hanging fruit model is that we are picking fruit at a slower rate because the higher-up fruit are harder to get to. You can only invent fire, the wheel, or a flint axe once. This story says that declining research productivity is inevitable. The fact that we once saw increasing scientific progress is because we were continually increasing inputs: adding more researchers, more research tools and technology. But now research is getting so much harder that even this is not enough. But another explanation for falling innovation ‘yields’ is that we are getting worse at picking it, despite the progress in picking methods that has happened. We’ve handed in our stepladders for footstools, without realising it. Our recent decline in innovation vibrancy might be explained by ideas becoming inherently harder to find, but it may just as easily be explained by us becoming worse at finding them. – The scientific slow down is real and is occurring across disciplines:

    • Pharmaceutical research is taking longer and there is a patent cliff on blockbuster drugs
    • Each process change in semiconductors costs more money and takes more time
    • Software takes more lines of code
    IBM 16 Qubit Processor

    But the scientific slow down might also be down to problems with incentives. Technology executive and engineer Judy Estrin talked about the way ‘hard innovation’ is no longer invested in compared to ‘soft innovation’. Innovation itself has become financialised with blockchain being like a snake eating its tale. The scientific slow down could be as much related to the incentives and choices that drive research. The scientific slow down could also be down to the divorce between developing and making things. Silicon Valley is no longer making silicon. So it is harder to foster an eco-system to deal with scientific slow down.

    Beauty

    LG Household Buys U.S. Beauty Brand – The Chosun Ilbo (English Edition) – The Crème Shop is a brand started by a Korean American who sells to teens and 20 somethings and has deals with Hello Kitty and Disney

    China

    China Will Be Deglobalization’s Big Loser by Minxin Pei – Project Syndicate – China was headed toward at least a partial decoupling with the United States well before Russia invaded Ukraine. And it has been seeking to ensure that this process happens on its terms, by reducing its dependence on US markets and technology. To that end, in 2020 China unveiled its so-called dual-circulation strategy, which aims to foster domestic demand and technological self-sufficiency. And yet, last year, China was still the world’s largest exporter, shipping $3.3 trillion in goods to the rest of the world, with the US its leading export market. In fact, overall trade with the US grew by more than 20% in 2021, as total Chinese trade reached a new high. Trade with the European Union also grew, reaching $828 billion, even as disagreements over human rights torpedoed a controversial EU-China investment agreement.

    How are coronavirus lockdowns affecting China’s economic output? | Financial Times and The Age of Slow Growth in China | Foreign Affairs – has China fallen into the middle income trap?

    Design

    ‘You have to do things perfectly . . . but it’s so secret’: how to build an oligarch’s yacht | Financial Times

    Persepolis Reimagined – really nice site by Media Monks for The Getty Museum

    Economics

    The Forgotten Origins of Silicon Valley by William H. Janeway – Project Syndicate

    Europe’s Economy on a Knife Edge by Barry Eichengreen – Project Syndicate 

    Ethics

    Sheryl Sandberg (FB) Accused of Helping Bury Negative Kotick Story: WSJ – Bloomberg – Sandberg apparently threatened DMG business relationship with Meta to spike a story twice

    Finance

    The Incredible Bouncing Ruble by Sergei Guriev – Project Syndicate 

    Germany

    What If Germany Boycotts Russian Energy? by Dalia Marin – Project Syndicate 

    Hong Kong

    Google and Meta impose social media curbs on Hong Kong’s sole leadership candidate | Financial Times – its only a matter of time before Hong Kong falls behind the great firewall. I suspect John Lee’s panel of advisors was an effort to strong arm the business oligarchs into supporting him Hong Kong’s elite join leadership candidate’s campaign as Beijing watches | Reuters. This explains why his manifesto was free of ideas.

    Innovation

    Third US defence department official resigns, warning US risks losing tech edge amid Pentagon’s eroding commercial base | South China Morning Post 

    America is struggling to counter China’s intellectual property theft | Financial Times 

    Japan

    Kishida’s ‘new capitalism’ harnesses nostalgia for traditional business methods | Financial Times – contrary to what the FT thinks if Japan can go back to the planned capitalism (without hubris) of former prime minister Zenkō Suzuki, that might be just the ticket in times of shifting globalisation

    Korea

    ¼ of Young Korean Men Feel Hard Done-By – The Chosun Ilbo (English Edition)

    Marketing

    Local Digital Ad Spend To Surpass $92B, Budgets Shift From Paid Search To Targeted Banners 04/15/2022 – the move from paid search to banner ads for local is interesting

    All-time NFT favourites on display at Harvey Nichols Hong Kong | Digital | Campaign Asia 

    Materials

    LVMH, Fendi open the door to sustainable, plastic-free lab-grown fur | Vogue Business – will lab grown fur be luxe?

    Tackling the test bottleneck in the supply chain – eeNews Europe
    ht – new developments in testing electronics important for QA and spotting fake components

    Media

    How journalists in Ukraine turned to crowdfunding site Patreon to finance coverage | Financial Times

    Online

    Facebook Papers on Donald Trump, the 2020 Election, and Jan. 6 

    Retailing

    Cleaning Up Streetwear’s Act | High Snobriety – the European Commission are proposing new standards which would dictate how durable apparel would need to be in addition to bans on the destruction of unsold materials. This comes at a time when a cavernous dichotomy exists between the cohort of people who require their products to be sustainably minded and the growing number of consumers who succumb to the whims of fast fashion led by retailers like Shein mushrooming to a $100 billion valuation

    Security

    China ‘infiltrates’ groups welcoming Hongkongers to Britain | News | The Times 

    SIG Sauer Comment on NGSW Win -The Firearm Blog – the US military is moving weapons system and ammunition to provide the ability shoot over longer distances

    Taiwan

    US Strategic Ambiguity Over Taiwan Must End by Abe Shinzō – Project Syndicate