Culture was the central point of my reason to start this blog. I thought that there was so much to explore in Asian culture to try and understand the future.
Initially my interest was focused very much on Japan and Hong Kong. It’s ironic that before the Japanese government’s ‘Cool Japan’ initiative there was much more content out there about what was happening in Japan. Great and really missed publications like the Japan Trends blog and Ping magazine.
Hong Kong’s film industry had past its peak in the mid 1990s, but was still doing interesting stuff and the city was a great place to synthesise both eastern and western ideas to make them its own. Hong Kong because its so densely populated has served as a laboratory of sorts for the mobile industry.
Way before there was Uber Eats or Food Panda, Hong Kongers would send their order over WhatsApp before going over to pay for and pick up their food. Even my local McDonalds used to have a WhatsApp number that they gave out to regular customers. All of this worked because Hong Kong was a higher trust society than the UK or China. In many respects in terms of trust, its more like Japan.
Korea quickly became a country of interest as I caught the ‘Korean wave’ or hallyu on its way up. I also have discussed Chinese culture and how it has synthesised other cultures.
More recently, aspect of Chinese culture that I have covered has taken a darker turn due to a number of factors.
Until watching this video on Heat I didn’t understand its link to Michael Mann’s earlier projects Crime Story and L.A. Takedown; which were basically attempts to make the same story for film. One of the reasons why Heat looks so realistic is that the film used a number of ex-special forces consultants including Steven Mitchel, who you might know better as Andy McNab. Heat is a legendary film for putting Al Pacino and Robert DeNiro in the same scene at the same time.
Heat has fantastic dialogue and is used by the US military for training purposes.
Beauty
Is the BBL bubble about to burst? – The Face – BBL is Brazil Butt Lift – the big butt is going the way of oversized breast enhancement surgery. It will have its place, but it won’t be so extreme
‘Prison Gothic’: Hong Kong road signs reborn as new font – Hong Kong Free Press HKFP – “Responding to the social movements and changes is a big incentive for the fonts’ development,” said Brian Kwok, associate professor at Hong Kong Polytechnic University’s design school. “In the past, symbols of Hong Kong local culture might be egg tarts, milk tea and the Lion Rock,” Kwok told AFP. “Now fonts have become a way for young people to explore their Hong Kong identity.”
PES are a stop motion animation house, whom I was introduced to by Guy, one of the creative directors that I work with. Film food trilogy is one set of films that they did a number of years ago, over a seven year period.
The film food trilogy starts with Western Spaghetti
The second film Fresh Guacamole was short listed for an Oscar nomination.
The final one in the food film trilogy is Submarine Sandwich.
Doraemon and Toyota collaboration for advertisement
The premise in these Toyota films is that it is 30 years later and the human characters have grown up, but have still stayed in the respective relative status to each other. The giant is still a bully for instance and Nobita is still a dweeb.
https://youtu.be/OfnUNmjHzoQ
Big Data China: AI – Surveillance symbiosis
Interesting discussion on the use of big data and machine learning in China. The programmable world with Chinese authoritarian characteristics. Some interesting insights in this stream. The event covers:
how China‘s large-scale investments in surveillance technology is both enhancing the state‘s capacity to repress dissent and providing commercial advantage to Chinese AI companies operating in the facial recognition and surveillance space.
CSIS
It is worthwhile looking at the materials that the CSIS is doing in association with Stanford University on Big Data China.
How LVMH took over Asia
Asianometry looks how Louis Vuitton grew so big in Asia. Japan and Hong Kong took over luxury sales increased in the 1970s due to a massive increase in disposable income. Its interesting that much of it was driven initially by Japanese department stores in the 1960s and Ferragamo was one of the first western luxury brands that they stocked. Louis Vuitton opened their first store in Japan in the Ginza district in the 1970s, they had somehow managed to leap the chasm that stymied other rivals who were traditional medium-sized enterprises like Louis Vuitton at the time. Well worth a look at this video.
Prior to reading The Power Law Mallaby wasn’t a familiar name to me. Looking into his background I could see why, Mallaby is a Washington Post columnist and specialises in international economics for the Council of Foreign Relations. A perfect CV for a policy wonk. His previous works have included a biography of Alan Greenspan, the World Bank and a book on hedge funds.
What the book doesn’t cover
The origins of modern venture capital in the pre-second world war era was through the family offices of people like the Wallenbergs and the Rockefellers. The Power Law only picks up the story post-war and has a distinct US bias in its storytelling.
Synopsis of The Power Law
George Doriot
Mallaby starts the story with Georges Frédéric Doriot and the American Research and Development Corporation (ARDC). What’s interesting Doriot is how he was different from today’s VCs with a focus on patriotism. Doriot is most famous for his funding of Digital Equipment Corporation (DEC), an enterprise computer company whose mini-computers facilitated the early internet and many business computer systems. At the time of DEC, the Boston area seriously rivalled the Bay Area as the technology centre.
Treacherous eight
As the book goes into the story of Arthur Rock and his relationship with the treacherous eight who left Bill Shockley’s lab, this is where many Silicon Valley histories start to coalesce with The Power Law. Mallaby adds a little more, such as the 600x return that both the eight and Rock enjoyed from their investment. At 96, Rock is still alive at the time of writing. He is more recently remembered for his involvement of firing of Steve Jobs from Apple in 1985, a good deal of this came down to his distaste for Jobs informal appearance.
Sandhill Road
Arthur Rock and former Doriot student Bill Draper benefited from being in the right place and at the right time. The US government looked to spur innovation as part of the cold war and the Bay Area was were much of this innovation would happen. Sequoia and Kleiner Perkins followed soon after, these names are now central to the Sandhill Road venture capital ecosystem, but in 1972 they were just starting off with businesses like Atari. Atari wasn’t started by experienced business professionals, but by a twenty something who thought meetings in the hot tub were a good idea. Atari marked a point in time when VCs had to become the adults in room, or as Mallaby put it ‘active investors’.
What I didn’t realise at the time was how early in Kleiner Perkin’s history was their engagement with biotech pioneer Genentech. I didn’t realise that Genentech was funded before Apple and was more a peer of Tandem Computers. Much of the early networking was based on a two-way door between established venture funded firms that were descendants of the treacherous eight and early venture capital firms that employed experienced executives as partners.
Apple was notable for two reasons. Firstly, venture capital firms operated for the first time rather like an insurance syndicate with several funding the business rather than one large investor. Secondly, the returns on Apple seems to have solidified the model and bought niche financing to a wider awareness beyond the geographic pockets of the technology industry. Where many books like Accidental Empires would use this as a jumping off point to tell the story of the PC industry. The Power Law instead talks about computer networking, this makes sense if one thinks of Metcalfe’s Law as the power law that matters the most in the internet age. The early east coast venture capital community were more cautious than their west coast counterparts, partly because the east coast technology corridor had less of a loose network of connections compared to the west coast. I think that the different business culture of the east coast also had an effect.
Connectors
Doerr connected Cypress Semiconductor and Sun Microsystems, two companies that Kleiner Perkins funded so that they would make the SPARC RISC microprocessor. You could put this as the starting point for the golden age of UNIX servers and workstations – which we can trace forward to today’s Mac range and modern Google servers.
Doerr had attempted other alliances before and in this way we see a different way how Metcalfe’s Law was the power law of the title. VCs has access to several nodes that they could connect together to try and build a technical vision. This is different to the idea we’re usually sold of the tech visionary / company founder a la the Google founders, Mark Zuckerberg or Steve Jobs.
Meanwhile Don Valentine of Sequoia Capital usurped the founders of Cisco Systems and brought in a new team to run the business bilking the founders out of much of their money. Part of this was down to one of the original Cisco founders being a woman.
Government money
The VC industry of the early 1990s capitalised on government money. Netscape was a remake of Mosiac which was the first graphic internet browser software developed in the NCSA software design group. This was part of the government-funded National Center for Supercomputing Applications (NCSA) at the University of Illinois. UUNET was a commercial ISP based on the back of the ARPANET email delivery system. As the dotcom boom took off it was the largest ISP and the fastest growing. UUNET eventually became part of MCI WorldCom and then Verizon, where UUNET remains a key part of the Verizon business offering. Both Netscape and UUNET were viewed at VC successes but as The Power Law shows, the reality was more complicated.
Irrational behaviour
I thought that the original dot.com boom was irrational behaviour, but I learned from the account of GO Computers a decade or so earlier that irrational behaviour is very much in the blood of venture capital, which explains how we had WeWork and Uber in the 2010s which is where The Power Law finishes its tale. The funny thing about the irrational behaviour is that both the dot com era and the 2010s Softbank appear to have been an accelerant with their late stage momentum approach to venture capital deals which blew valuations on businesses up far beyond what would be reasonably expected otherwise. Softbank gave birth to ‘growth equity’ as a business model that took in many existing and new VC businesses including Russian Israeli Yuri Milner and his DST Ventures business which invested in Facebook, Stripe and GroupOn.
Paul Graham and Peter Thiel
Paul Graham was a founder of an ad tech business who then moved over to investing and had a reputation for warning startup founders about the nature of VC funding. It fitted neatly into the ‘John Gaunt’ type narrative that played well with some of his peers like Peter Thiel. The impact of these people setting an ideological agenda of sorts for Silicon Valley founders, together with a plethora of other founders providing seed capital to businesses from Google onwards greatly impacted the freedom of VCs to operate using their previous models and left the industry open for the Softbanks of the world to inflate everything.
China off-note
The Power Law offers a largely truimphantist view of the role of VCs such as Sequoia Capital in China. However, this seems to ignore the impact of Chinese VC and angel investors. It also chooses to ignore the negative impact of Xi Jingping.
Conclusion
Mallaby illuminates part of Silicon Valley history that I wasn’t familiar with, in particular VCs strategic role in steering technological change during the 1990s. Time has somewhat outpaced the book. The rise of Xi Jingping and the change in attitude towards safety and innovation amongst young Chinese is likely to make the China section look overly optimistic. The end of easy money, at least for the time being will impact the VC industry globally and growth equity looks like a folly during the present time. But if you want to understand how things were The Power Law is the ideal book for you.
Hong Kongers Book Fair, an independently organised book fair set up by Hillway Culture was cancelled the day before its official launch. The landlords claimed that they had violated a sub letting clause in the contract, the reality has more to do with the current environment around publishing in Hong Kong.
Hillway Culture who organised the Hong Kongers Book Fair are looking to keep local Hong Kong culture alive. And what were the books that would have made landlords and the government concern? The diaries of local political prisoners, locally drawn graphic novels, a phonebook of Ukraine and translations of Orwell’s 1984 and Animal Farm. You can support the book fair organisers and exhibitors through this online shop.
Before Fast & The Furious Tokyo Drift raised the international profile of Japanese illegal racing there was Mid Night. This video tells the story of the Porsche 911 Turbo that was at the centre of the club. What I also found interesting was the emphasis on big American muscle cars at the top of the scene rather than say Japanese tuned Mazda RX7s, Nissan Fairlady Zs, Italian sports cars or the big engined German saloon cars like the Mercedes-Benz 300 SEL 6.3 and the Mercedes-Benz 450SEL 6.9. Given how on it the Japanese police usually still are on enforcement I was surprised this could go on, let alone have the impact that it had.
The end of the salary man
The Asia Society and Adecco try to put lipstick on the pig of how middle class ‘iron rice bowl’ jobs are disappearing even amongst the most successful corporate organisations in Japan, Korea and Singapore. This is the end of a social contract between society, exploitive corporations and governments who collaborated in creating directed economies. This has been tearing away at the fabric of society, a large number of middle aged men are now homeless. They spent their best years not present in their marriages and when made redundant were kicked out of their homes on to the streets.
Helihome
In the family farm house were my Mum grew up there hung a jigsaw picture that was of a painting of the post-war American Antarctic Expedition. It captured my imagination with its Trucker Sno Cat vehicles, pallets being moved off bright orange freighters onto sled and a bright orange Sikorsky helicopter.
I spent a good deal of my early childhood looking at that picture. So if you had asked 6-year old me to come up with my dream camper van, I would have likely come up with something like the Helihome. The Helihome was designed in the early 1970s by a Florida aviation company using ex-Vietnam war surplus US marine helicopters.
Orlando Helicopter Airways my 6-year old self salutes you.
BMW 7-series production footage
I love manufacturing footage. This b-roll of the BMW 7-series production line is particularly interesting. I thought back to the old Japanese animated cartoons of the automated processes that put a mecha into action as the pilot was put into the head. The degree of automation in this line looks like the science fiction of a few decades ago. Which makes me wonder, how has automation been so advanced in some ways and so basic in others. Why are smartphones still reliant on an army of women to hand assemble the devices? Why is UK industry like food services still so reliant on agency workers earning minimum hourly wages?
I had heard a variant on the ‘Soviet steel’ story that was responsible for Italian cars being rust buckets when I was growing up. The version I heard was that high proportions of recycled scrap from rusted war wreckage and dismantled ships had been put in Italian steel to make it cheaper. (It was easy to believe this version. Libya had a strong historic connection to Italy and prior to oil being discovered Libya’s top export was scrap metal from abandoned military equipment of the second world war’s North African campaign.) Secondly, Russian cars that made it to the west were unreliable and suffered from rust, which supported beliefs about Soviet steel. The reality would have been that the quality related issues in Alfa Romeo’s factories likely would also occur with unmotivated Soviet workers during the economic stagnation from the late 1960s onwards.
Soviet goods had a rough and ready feel to them, it would be reasonable to assume that Soviet steel wasn’t great. The alternative explanation in this video seems to be reasonable. This viewpoint has changed in the belief of engineers like my Dad that Chinese steel of a particular grade has a quality discount like the Soviet steel of old.
Klarna valuation crashes to $6.5bn from $46bn | Financial Times – unsurprising when I see reports that about 30% of buy now, pay later loans will be struggling to pay them back. It reminds me of storecard debt during the 1991 recession. I was working during college holidays for MBNA a few years later and people were using the balance transfer function to get £20,000 to £30,000 of store card debt on to a card to play off at a lower interest rate. MBNA was then securitising their debt via bonds. There’s probably people who bought a suit at Burtons in the late 1980s that only cleared that debt by the time the millennium came around
People are leaving Hong Kong and here’s where they’re going – “Everyone’s going to Singapore,” said Pei, especially those working in finance, law and recruitment, she said. Kay Kutt, CEO of the Hong-Kong based relocation company Silk Relo, agreed, saying people are attracted to the ease of business, family friendliness, tax incentives and open borders of Singapore. In its 40-year existence, the past three years have been the busiest years on record for Silk Relo’s sister moving company, Asian Tigers, she said. “We cannot keep up with the capacity,” she said. “We don’t have enough people to serve what’s going on in the marketplace.” Families are transferring to Singapore, she said, but small- and medium-sized businesses are also on the move. Whereas one company executive might have left in the past, now “they’re all going,” she said. Small companies are “taking the entire team and putting them into Singapore.” Large companies are also relocating to Singapore, said Cynthia Ang, an executive director at the recruitment firm Kerry Consulting. She cited L’Oreal, Moet Hennessy and VF Corporation — the latter which owns brands such as Timberland and North Face — as examples, while noting there are more who haven’t made their decisions public yet. – the volume going to Singapore is immense based on the amount of people that I am seeing coming to the UK
Hong Kong resistance will live on – SupChina – a few things here. I thought the parallels between Tibet’s annexation by China and Hong Kong was interesting. I don’t think that resistance will continue on. For the majority of people, its just easier to leave. People are going to Thailand, the UK, Australia, Canada and Singapore. They are connected through family networks to the world.
Will Southeast Asia support Russia’s war with semiconductor exports? — Radio Free Asia – Southeast Asian states, apart from Singapore, have eschewed sanctions and continue to trade with Russia. But as the war drags on, that will have consequences in terms of secondary sanctions and other penalties imposed by the west. Russian supply chains run through Southeast Asia, and the United States and other western governments are have made the targeting of Russian sanctions evasion operations a top priority. One area where Southeast Asian actors may be tempted into sanctions evasion – or where, conversely, they could help pressure Russia economically – is in the export of semiconductors. – there will be a point when they will be on the receiving end of either Chinese aggression or western sanctions. In either case, the west will just standby
