Category: online | 線上 | 온라인으로 | オンライン

The online field has been one of the mainstays since I started writing online in 2003. My act of writing online was partly to understand online as a medium.

Online has changed in nature. It was first a destination and plane of travel. Early netizens saw it as virgin frontier territory, rather like the early American pioneers viewed the open vistas of the western United States. Or later travellers moving west into the newly developing cities and towns from San Francisco to Los Angeles.

America might now be fenced in and the land claimed, but there was a new boundless electronic frontier out there. As the frontier grew more people dialled up to log into it. Then there was the metaphor of web surfing. Surfing the internet as a phrase was popularised by computer programmer Mark McCahill. He saw it as a clear analogue to ‘channel surfing’ changing from station to station on a television set because nothing grabs your attention.

Web surfing tapped into the line of travel and 1990s cool. Surfing like all extreme sport at the time was cool. And the internet grabbed your attention.

Broadband access, wi-fi and mobile data changed the nature of things. It altered what was consumed and where it was consumed. The sitting room TV was connected to the internet to receive content from download and streaming services. Online radio, podcasts and playlists supplanted the transistor radio in the kitchen.

Multi-screening became a thing, tweeting along real time opinions to reality TV and live current affairs programmes. Online became a wrapper that at its worst envelopes us in a media miasma of shrill voices, vacuous content and disinformation.

  • Shareware: Throwback gadget

    Shareware -back before the internet became ubiquitous, software was distributed by bulletin boards. It was expensive to dial into a board, so magazines uses to have storage media pre-loaded with applications on the front of them.

    For much of the late 1990s and early 2000s my parents used to use MacFormat magazine CDs and floppy disks as coffee coasters. One disk may come with bloatware such as the installation software for AOL, Demon or Claranet. The other disk would be full of free or paid for software.

    The paid for software was often written by a single developer. It was a labour of love / cottage industry hybrid. Often the developers wrote the software to deal with a real need that they had, it was then passed on as they thought others would benefit as well.

    Open source software the way we understand it now was only in its infancy in terms of public awareness. Packaged software was big money. As recent as 2000, Microsoft Office for the Mac would have cost you £235. Quark Xpress – the Adobe Indesign of its day would have cost in the region of £700+ VAT.

    Into the gap sprung two types of software: freeware and shareware.

    Freeware was usually provided as is, there was little expectation of application support. It would become orphaned when the developer moved on to other things

    ChocoFlop Shareware Style

    Shareware usually had different mechanisms to allow you to try it, if you could see the benefit then you paid a fee. This unlocked new features, or got rid of nag screens (like the one from image editing app Chocoflop).

    In return you also got support if there was any problems with the app. Shareware hasn’t died out, but has become less visible in the world of app stores. One that I have been using on and off for over 20 years is GraphicConvertor by Lemke Software. It handles any kind of arcane graphic file you can throw at it and converts it into something useable.

    Kagi Software were one of the first people to provide programmers with a way of handling payments and software activation. Kagi provided an onscreen form to fill out, print, and mail along with their payment. it was pre-internet e-commerce.

    I can’t remember exactly what utility programme I first bought for my college PowerBook, but I do remember that I sent the printed form and cheque to a developer in Glasgow. I got a letter back with an activation code and a postcard (I’ve now lost) from the Kelvingrove Art Gallery and Museum.

    Later on, Kagi were one of the first online payment processors.

    From the late 1990s FTP sites and the likes of download.com began to replace the magazine disk mount covers. Last year Kagi died, making life a little more difficult for the worldwide cottage industry of small software developers. it was inconvenient, but now with PayPal developers have an easy way to process payments and there are various key management options.

  • Micro influencers

    Micro influencers – much of the social marketing today for consumer brand is done through what is called influencer marketing. For a number of these influencers who have a large social following, working with brand has become very lucrative. But one of the hottest tickets at the moment within communications agencies are ‘micro-influencers’; Edelman Digital lists it as a key area in Digital Trends Report . There is widely cited research by Marketly that claims there is an engagement ceiling (at least on Instagram). Once a follower count gets beyond that, engagement rates decline. This micro-influencer sweet spot is apparently 1,000 – 100,000 followers.

    What are micro influencers?

    Brown & Fiorella (2013) described micro influencers

    Adequately identifying prospective customers, and further segmenting them based on situations and situational factors enables us to identify the people and businesses – or technologies an channels that are closest to them in each scenario. We call these micro-influencers and see them as the business’s opportunity to exert true influence over the customer’s decision-making process as opposed to macro-influencers who simply broadcast to a wider, more general audience.

    Brown & Fiorella wanted to focus on formal prospect detail capture and conversion. It sounds like an adjunct to integrating marketing automation from the likes of Hubspot and Marketo into a public relations campaign.

    This approach is more likely to work in certain circumstances:

    • Low barrier to conversion (e-tailing)
    • Business-to-business marketing – for instance Quocirca did some interesting research back in 2006 that showed endorsements by a finance directors peers at other companies was likely to have a positive effect on a prospective supplier

    Brown & Fiorella’s thinking tends to fall down, when you deploy their approach to:

    • Consumer marketing
    • Mature product sectors
    • Mature brands

    Brand preference and purchase is much more dependent on reach and repetition to build familiarity and being ‘top-of-mind’ as a product.

    Most money in influence marketing is spent in the consumer space as B2B marketing tends to struggle with:

    • Reach
    • Volume of conversation interaction

    (At least outside of the US).

    Brown and Fiorella are 180 degrees away from the approach of consumer marketing maven Byron Sharp and his ‘smart’ mass marketing approach. This means that PR and social agencies are often out-of-step with the thinking of marketing clients, their media planners and other agency partners.

    Engagement matters less than reach or repetition of brand message for mature sectors or brands. For many consumer brands the drop off in engagement amongst macro-influencers is a non-issue, a red herring.

    The only part of the engagement measure that I would be concerned about in that case would be content propagation amongst my defined target audience – how widely had it been repeatedly shared as this would affect total reach.

    If the client and planner are using Sharp’s thinking then this audience would be wide, but a certain amount of the propagation would be wasted – for instance outside targeted geographies.

    From the perspective of communications agencies I can understand the obsession with engagement being part of their DNA. Micro influencers are an extension of this, as macro-influencers value is increasingly out of whack with their marketing benefits. These businesses are in the offline world are engagement agencies; whether its politicians, regulators, fashion stylists, movie set designers, editors, journalists, TV producers or DJs.

    Why are micro influencers a hot topic now?

    The most obvious reason is that more popular ‘macro-influencers’ are well informed about their commercial value which has been driven up to a point where they look expensive in terms of cost, even if you charitably look at it on a ‘per follower’ basis.

    On the supply side of the equation, influencer representation benefit from having more ‘inventory’ that can be sold at various price points to marketers. So in some respects micro influencers fulfil a market supply need.

    Challenges in influencer marketing

    From a marketing perspective there are a number of issues in influencer marketing – these factors are either unknown data points or represent an issue with the brand experience

    • Quality of brand placement
    • Cost per reach
    • Consistency of reach (how confident is the media planner that the influencer will achieve a certain level of reach)
    • Message repetition amongst the audience that I want to reach

    Which makes it harder to factor into an econometric model that would help justify the investment in influencer marketing as a contribution to sales.

    Let’s have a look at data around a campaign for smartphone manufacturer Huawei. This has been touted as successful by the agency involved, Social Chain. We don’t know the cost as its likely to be client confidential.

    • 2 million YouTube views (we don’t know how many of these were driven by advertising)

    • 75,000 likes

    • 13,587,159 impressions driven by 6 influencers

    • 10,689 clicks from 90 posts

    • 10 million impressions for the promotion of a colour variant of the smartphone model and 92,320 engaged

    • 4.6% engagement rate (which we’re assured is 41% higher than the industry average for branded content)

    What this doesn’t tell us:

    • Reach amongst target audience
    • Repetition amongst target audience

    Which could then be used to provide an estimate of its contributory factor to sales if you had an econometrics model. You can’t access how it works next to other tactics and there are limited outtakes for the learning marketing organisation.

    Quality of brand placement

    Many brands have struggled to get their brand in the influencers content in a way that:

    • Represents it in a meaningful way (for example beyond unboxing videos, one smartphone looks rather like another)
    • Doesn’t feel ad-hoc or awkward

    Some luxury brands have managed to get around this by keeping control of the content; a good example of this is De Grisogono – a family-run high jewellery and luxury watch brand. They work with fashion bloggers that meet their high standards and invite them to events. (It’s obviously an oversight on their part that I haven’t had an invite yet.)

    De Grisogono provides them with high-quality photography of its pieces and the event. They get the best of both worlds: influencer marketing but with a high standard of brand presentation which raises the quality of the achieved reach.

    There is a school of thought that micro influencers will be easier to manage in order to assure quality of brand placement. However, micro-influencers are likely to be aspiring macro-influencers and each will have a clear line of demarcation in their own head that they won’t cross. The reality is one of complexity dependent on:

    • Brand power
    • Relationships
    • Credibility of proposed idea
    • Impact on aspirations – could they get more followers by taking a stand and strategically burning a brand?
    Cost per reach

    Influencers tend to talk about themselves in terms of the number of followers that they have. However many followers seldom engage with the influencers content. This happens for a number of reasons:

    • The follow button is often used as a book mark or a like button
    • Algorithmic changes to social platforms and the volume of the social firehouse itself drown out brands (and these influencers are all about the brand of ‘me’). Whatley and Manson’s research at Ogilvy on the decline of organic reach in Facebook pages  is worthwhile having a look at

    Followers as a data point is not the straight analogue of reach that the industry and influencers would have you believe based on how they present their data.

    Reach numbers that are presented are often not that much more useful:

    follower

    (Data via Golin, TapInfluence and Marriott)

    Consistency of reach

    So influencers may give us follower numbers or ‘total reach’ calculations but how do we know what reach their brand placement content is likely to achieve? At the moment, I don’t know how consistent influencers are, I have a ‘personal time’ data project currently in progress on it. More on that hopefully in a later post. There isn’t off-the-peg data that I know of, so I am pulling together a data set.

    Message repetition

    Until we understand the ‘quality of brand placement’ we wouldn’t be able to understand whether a piece of influencer content was a point of content delivery. We’d also need to know do audiences of influencer A also look at media channels or other influencers that we have in our overall media plan. There often isn’t an overall media plan and there often isn’t sufficient quality of audience data for influencers.

    More on influence here.

    More information

    Edelman Digital Trends Report – (PDF) makes some interesting reading
    Instagram Marketing: Does Influencer Size Matter? | Markerly Blog
    Influence Marketing: How to Create, Manage and Measure Brand Influencers in Social Media Marketing by Danny Brown & Sam Fiorella ISBN-13: 978-0789751041 (2013)
    Facebook Zero: Considering Life After the Demise of Organic Reach

  • China cloud market + other news

    China cloud market

    Amazon, Microsoft Face Tough New Limits on China Cloud Market — The Information – why aren’t companies lobbying the US (and other governments) to hammer China on the WTO?. It is interesting that the China cloud market is being treated like a strategic industry. The question is what is the Chinese government’s end game with the data in the China cloud market and how will it be weaponised?

    Shenzhen civic centre

    Business

    Yahoo! remainder to rebrand as “Altaba”, CEO resigns – the truly sad bit is David Filo’s resignation, despite being one of the largest shareholders

    Sterling’s Plunge Spoils FTSE 100 Record Winning Streak – MoneyBeat – WSJ – sterling’s drop shows that the FTSE gains are mostly illusory

    Finance

    Alipay User Overview 2016 – China Internet Watch – the spend sounds high given China’s average wage

    Gadget

    MacFarlane quits Sonos | TechEye – Amazon on the low end and Bose alongside other hi-fi companies now in the market

    Media

    Journalism, media and technology trends and predictions 2017 – Reuters Institute for the study of journalism – interesting issues that will affect media planning and creative (Facebook Live, VR, AR). Social becomes a policy tool as politicians use social for campaigning and dialogue (PDF)

    Apple Sets Its Sights on Hollywood With Plans for Original Content – WSJ – its about competing with Spotify; not Netflix apparently

    Collett Dickenson Pearce | BraveNewMalden – how to ruin an ad

    Venture capital is going to murder Medium – Business Insider – $132 million in funding…

    Online

    China’s answer to Quora now worth a billion bucks | Techinasia – it pisses me off that the way this is phrased. Knowledge search Q&A type sites have been a staple of Asian web for over a decade: Naver being a classic example. Baidu has had a version for years.

    What Comes Next Is the Future (2016) on Vimeo – great documentary on the history of the web and where it going in the future

    Netflix is even more popular than porn in hotel rooms | Quartz – it doesn’t look as douchy on your credit card statement?

    Security

    Russia’s D.N.C. Hack Was Only the Start – NYTimes.com – interesting if a bit self-serving op-ed by Robby Mook who managed Hillary Clinton’s failed 2016 campaign for president. His distinction between leaks versus doxing is a relatively weak argument. Where would he stand on whistleblowers?

    Software

    WeChat is morphing so Chinese smartphone owners will never have to download an app again — Quartz

    Technology

    Future Health Index – interesting resource on future of health thinking

    Gartner Says 2016 Marked Fifth Consecutive Year of Worldwide PC Shipment Decline – PCs aren’t dead, but they aren’t the general purpose device; instead their are a serious computing device where more computing power, more focus or better ergonomics are required rather than the casual or glanceable computing of mobile and tablet devices

    Web of no web

    TV anchor says live on-air ‘Alexa, order me a dollhouse’ – guess what happens next • The Register – epic. More related content here.

    Google Maps now displays Uber drivers in real-time | TheNextWeb – is this real data though?

  • Sound from screen + other news

    Sound from screen

    Sony’s New OLED TV Emits Sound From Screen – Nikkei Technology Online – back in the 1970s and 1980s, Sony and Technics (Panasonic) experimented with flat audio speaker drivers. You can see the ancestor of the thinking behind sound from screen, by looking at the Technics SB-10 and Sony’s APM8. Sony’s accurate pistonic motion foreshadowed NXT’s ubqiuitous flat panel sound from screen technology. NXT originally was part of the UK speaker manufacturer Wharfdale. More information here.

    Noise Meter, Held at Logan Airport End of Neptune Road Records Over 86 Decibels

    Economics

    Theresa Maybe, Britain’s indecisive premier | The Economist – unflattering comparison with Gordon Brown

    Finance

    How Social Cash Made WeChat The App For Everything | Fast Company – if you look at WeChat you have some idea where Facebook Messenger is trying to go

    How to

    The Blueprint | The Expectations Game – managing expectations

    Luxury

    Visvim Dissertations: Boro (Aomori, Japan) | Union Los Angeles – great read

    Media

    Tommy Mottola Pens Open Letter To Mariah Carey | Idolator – “I would never have encouraged her or guided her to do something like a reality television show!!!!! I don’t get it!!… that does absolutely nothing for her integrity, her credibility, or her massive talent!! She should take a step back, think carefully and figure out what to do next.” I still don’t get why the music industry continues to go along with reality TV

    Online

    Edelman Digital Trends Report – (PDF) makes some interesting reading

    Security

    Hackers threaten smart power grids – POLITICO – really interesting data that shows for many countries the cost benefit analysis of smart metering wasn’t proven. Guessing security costs weren’t considered seriously by many who thought it was a good idea

    The polity that is Singapore cybersecurity | Marginal Revolution – go analogue

    Technology

    Babylon Health partners with UK’s NHS to replace telephone helpline with AI-powered chatbot | TechCrunch – Working with a number of health authorities in London, Babylon will begin a six month trial starting at the end of January to offer its AI-powered chatbot ‘triage’ service as an alternative to the NHS’s 111 telephone helpline that patients call to get healthcare advice and be directed to local and out-of-hours medical services. – more related content here.

    Cellulose Nanofiber-based Engine Cover Exhibited at Show (1) – Nikkei Technology Online – lighter than current GRP (glass reinforced plastic) covers

    Foxconn boosting automated production in China | Digitises – it would be interesting to see how they cope with the fine motor work required for iPhone assembly (I suspect not very well)

    Daring Fireball: Why Chris Adamson Bought a New Mac Pro Last Week – capitulation – the word a power Apple customer used to describe his purchase of a new Mac Pro. When you’re customers resent you there is a problem

    Apple’s 2016 in review | Chuqui – a great read

  • Smartwatches & more news

    Smartwatches

    Let’s Face It: Smartwatches Are Dead | Variety – interesting that Variety covered smartwatches. Apple is king of smartwatches. That market is at best immature, at worst dead in the water. Of course all this could change in an instant with a compelling use smartwatches case from a killer app – rather like Apple’s LaserWriter and Aldus’ PageMaker software completely changed things for the Apple Macintosh. Luxury as a sector has fallen down for smartwatches, health looks like a better candidate.

    Business

    Lessons from the Kingston Smith’s annual agency profitably survey | Chris Merrington | Pulse | LinkedIn – The top 30 independent digital agencies’ margin declined to 4.9%. 30% of them are making a loss

    Will Hong Kong’s OOCL be eaten up by the world’s biggest container lines? | Hongkong Business – expect further consolidation, Hamburg Sud has been acquired by Mearsk.

    China

    VIDEO: Embattled LeEco Sued in HK as Bills Pile Up | Young’s China Business – fascinating rise and probable fall.

    Consumer behaviour

    Men, Please Stop Manthreading | Gizmodo – errr no, this isn’t a gender issue despite the weak rationale

    Economics

    WSJ City – US Businesses Reconsider UK and EU Investment – interesting reading; serious implications for agencies who act as a hub or work on global briefs

    Major cut in EU migrants risks long-term damage to UK economy – report | The Guardian – and this all doesn’t seem to be taking into account automation and foreign competition reducing demand…

    As Brexit approaches, signs of a gathering economic storm for Britain – The Washington Post – “I can’t see any circumstance in which we’re going to get a good deal,” he said, noting the E.U.’s incentive to deter future defections by driving a hard bargain with Britain. “The U.K. is going to come out of this very badly. The impact hasn’t even started yet.” 

    Gadget

    Apple Extends Discounts on USB-C Adapters and Accessories Until March 31 – Mac Rumors – the MacBook Pro disaster continues. Having blown fortune on dongles to make my laptop work. I am now faced with 10 years of battery chargers, power adaptors for planes and automobiles and a variety of connectors that are now up for the scrap heap. Not exactly environmentally friendly design. A second thing is that the MagSafe connector is far safer than the new USB C connectors.

    Ideas

    Perfecting Cross-Pollination | HBR – research on more than 17,000 patents suggests that the financial value of the innovations resulting from such cross-pollination is lower, on average, than the value of those that come out of more conventional, siloed approaches. In other words, as the distance between the team members’ fields or disciplines increases, the overall quality of their innovations falls. But my research also suggests that the breakthroughs that do arise from such multidisciplinary work, though extremely rare, are frequently of unusually high value—superior to the best innovations achieved by conventional approaches

    Innovation

    The Sunk Cost Fallacy and the Future of Silicon Valley — The Information – an oblique criticism of Silicon Valley no longer being known for ‘hard’ innovation (paywall)

    AI Winter Isn’t Coming – Despite plenty of hype and frantic investment, a leading artificial intelligence expert says hardware advances will keep AI breakthroughs coming – hmmm not so convinced most of it is building on 1980s work rather than really moving things forward

    Japan

    Tokyo Thrift special: ‘It’s a Sony’ exhibit shows off decades of decadent design – The Verge – basically a love letter to Sony’s product design and obsession for engineering

    Korea

    Tour guides accuse South Korean departmental store of exploiting expatriates | SCMP – interesting given who Chinese shoppers are overwhelming large parts of central Seoul

    Legal

    The UK’s Investigatory Powers Act allows the State to tell lies in court • The Register – Section 56(1)(b) creates a legally guaranteed ability – nay, duty – to lie about even the potential for State hacking to take place, and to tell juries a wholly fictitious story about the true origins of hacked material used against defendants in order to secure criminal convictions. This is incredibly dangerous. Even if you know that the story being told in court is false, you and your legal representatives are now banned from being able to question those falsehoods and cast doubt upon the prosecution story. 

    Potentially, you could be legally bound to go along with lies told in court about your communications – lies told by people whose sole task is to weave a story that will get you sent to prison or fined thousands of pounds.

    Luxury

    Luxury Daily – Unwed, digitally savvy millennials affecting luxury jewellery business – and the luxury digital devices generally look hideous

    Marketing

    Harvard Business Review – whiteboard videos on Facebook – apparently successful tactics with roughly 100,000 views per video

    Media

    Vice Media Forms Alliance With Guardian Newspaper | Variety – interesting move in terms of media

    The Methbot operation | Whiteops – video ad fraud business worth $3-5m/day (PDF) Well worth reading despite the bot network name….

    Europe Presses American Tech Companies to Tackle Hate Speech – The New York Times – only 40 percent of material flagged as possible hate speech online (albeit in a relatively small sample of 600 posts, videos and other online material) had been reviewed by the Silicon Valley companies within 24 hours. Of those 600 postings, just over a quarter was eventually taken down

    China e-sports industry entering golden age, says IDC | DigiTimes – (paywall)

    Finding New Ways To Be Fearless | Media Post – content before channel – interesting take I would see them as having equal footing

    Case study: 3 years, 5M WeChat followers, and 300M RMB valuation – Uncle Tongdao, a WeChat Official Account about astrology just had an exit at a RMB 300 million valuation – character licensing. LINE (Brown and Cony) and WeChat are the platforms for the new Hello Kitty or Mickey Mouse

    Mr. Robot Killed the Hollywood Hacker | MIT Technology Review – a certain amount of conceit as the author is a sci-fi writer, but a great read

    China, new economies driving ad market growth: GroupM | Advertising | Campaign Asia – China continues to exceed expectations, with GroupM China revising upwards its initial forecast of 6.6 percent growth to 7.8 percent. This contrasts with the Magna report, released yesterday by IPG Mediabrands, which initially forecast China’s ad market growth at 8.4 percent and revised it down to 7.2 percent

    Online

    Vine Update – Medium – Vine becomes a feature (officially). Vine made the classic web 2.0 mistake of confusing being a feature with being a fully featured but minimal service for optimal user experience design. This is a hard line to walk during the web 2.0 era, let alone in the face of super-apps like WeChat that compress a whole operating environment into one app at a moderate sacrifice in usability

    Security

    OONI – urandom.pcap: Belarus (finally) bans Tor – double edged sword. On one hand good for a government that wants oversight like Investigatory Powers act; on the other Tor users flag themselves interesting by their use of it. I would expect an MP driven ban in the UK at some point

    Freedom of Press Foundation Asks Canon, Nikon, and Other Camera Manufacturers to Sell Encrypted Cameras | WIRED – another issue is that cameras are more likely consumer electronics than computers – firmware updates are often not used and cameras have a long life

    Congressional group says backdoor laws would do more harm than good – The Verge – smarter approach to cryptography than many politicians. There is a clear dichotomy between politicians desire for personal privacy and their clear advocacy against it in the name of national security. This sense of the other highlights the gap between politicians and the people. The congressional group conclusions are refreshing.

    YouGov | The risk of Britain being attacked by another country in the next 30 years; Websites used/ trusted – website data is interesting but I bet the self reporting percentages aren’t backed up by observed behaviour

    Software

    Tencent: Inside China’s ‘killer app’ factory | FT – (paywall)

    Technology

    MacBook Pro Launch: Perplexing | MondayNote – quite shocking review by Jean-Louis Gassée of his experience with the new MacBook Pro – less than 5 hours of battery life, buggy peripherals and software glitches don’t inspire confidence

    Web of no web

    Protecting the Apple iWatch Standby screenshot as a trademark Device in China? Sorry not possible. – too complex to be protected as a trademark: WTF. China still has ambitions with smartwatches, as part of a wider emphasis on wearables and 5G. Apple’s smartwatches are the only ones that are distinctive in nature and this could bring about copycats. More related posts here.

    Wireless

    Apple Explores Dual-SIM Capability in iPhones, Patent Filing Reveals – Slashdot – I’d have been more surprised if they didn’t look at it

    iPhone Camera Quality: Flickr Data Shows How Insanely Popular It Is | BGR – interesting that Flickr skews towards iPhone users

    Apple (AAPL) is opening up a bit on the state of its AI research — Quartz – still governed by Apple’s focus on computing power per watt

    Above Avalon: Milking the iPhone – interesting analysis