Ged Carroll

Category: oprah time | 書評 | 서평 : 文芸批評

Welcome! I guess the first question that you have is why oprah time? Well in my last year of college I used to sit in the house that I shared with my landlord and write my essays whilst watching cable TV.

There I would be sipping tea, writing away and referencing from text books spread around me on the couch and coffee table. One of the programmes on the in the background was Oprah Winfrey. A lot of the show was just background noise. But I was fascinated by Oprah’s book club.

She’d give her take on a book, maybe interview the author. And then it would be blasted up the New York Times bestsellers list. This list appears weekly in the New York Times Book Review. Oprah’s book club was later emulated by other talk show hosts, notably the UK’s Richard Madeley and Judy Finegan.

On the high end you had Melvyn Bragg‘s South Bank Show when they profiled an author of the moment.

When I came to writing my own review of books that I’d read, I was was brought back to that time working on a sofa. Apple laptop in hand. It made sense to go with Oprah time.

You might also notice a link called bookshelf. This is a list of non-fiction books that I have kept. And the reasons why I have kept them.

If you’ve gone through my reviews and think that you’d like to send me a book to review. Feel free to contact me. Click this link, prove that you’re human and you will have my email address.

  • The Dragon and The Snakes

    The Dragon and The Snakes

    David Kilcullen wrote a number of books on the strategic challenges faced by the west in the war on terror. His book The Dragon and The Snakes looks at the challenges that the west faces from China (the dragon), Russia and Iran (the snakes). I was finishing reading this book as the Ukraine | Russia crisis broke this month, dominating the news headlines.

    The Dragon and The Snakes

    Out of the cold war

    The Dragon and The Snakes starts with what shaped the modern world. The modern world was shaped out of the cold war. Western doctrine was defined by meeting a numerically superior force with superior technology. At the time, China and Russia were in dispute over a number of issues. At the chime of Chairman Mao, the death of Stalin and changing posture of the Soviet Union led to a fissure that widened over time. In the cold war was not only a war for influence between capitalism and communism; but also evolved into a war between Soviet communism and Maoist communism. China and Russia both supplied North Vietnam, but China invaded Vietnam partly due to it being more in the Soviet camp than the Chinese camp (this is is somewhat simplifying a multi-causal conflict, but has a truth in it).

    China and US had limited cooperation with regards Russia which was brought in by Nixon’s famous visit to China and the machinations of Henry Kissinger who believed in systems and the ends justifying the means.

    The flat topography of Kuwait and Iraq, together the latest 1980s weapons systems from the cold war made the first gulf war quick and provided an eye-raising demonstration of modern warfare. The campaign was just 42 days long.

    Pivotal moments of change

    Kilcullen goes on to discuss pivotal moments of change for both Russia and China in The Dragon and The Snakes.

    • The first gulf war. China noted that integrated satellite and aerial reconnaissance with associated command and control information systems; full spectrum jamming to ensure battlefield communications superiority; better coordination of naval and ground offensive forces than ever achieved before; highly accurate missile systems; integrated command, control, communications and intelligence for directing the battle. Mechanised units with air support then won the battle. But they also noticed the economics of war were not in favour of technology. Bombers and missiles were dubbed flying mountains of gold and used to attack targets worth less than the weapons system. Secondly more technology meant a shorter weapons system life. Weapons systems average service life went from 30 years to 10 years during the cold war due to technological obsolescence.
    • Kosovo – NATO’s intervention emphasised the nature of modern warfare to Russia. But it also emphasised the threat that the west posed. The Russians have a cultural connection to the Serbians. One incident in particular stuck out: the bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade. The Chinese embassy attack showed a number of things. The bombing of the embassy was a demonstration of precision bombing. Unfortunately it was the right target, wrong building and was the sole CIA designated attack of the war. The CIA gave the military the wrong coordinates for a Yugoslav storage facility, instead they were the coordinates for the embassy
    1. It fuelled Chinese perceptions that the US and west were willing to attack them, this stoked nationalism at home and basically broke the Kissinger-era detente and trust with the US. Thus there was a common view from both Russia and China
    2. China realised that it needed to adapt from being an Asian land army to having an expeditionary component and defending against a likely American led expeditionary force
    3. It reinforced Chinese views about the technological nature of war
    • Russian invasion of Georgia. While the two Chechen wars had been a meat grinder that exhibited many of the Soviet era armies weaknesses and corruption, it was the invasion of Georgia that proved to be the emphasis to professionalise and improve. Russians learned and built doctrine from the experience. Air power had proved vulnerable to relatively cheap MANPADs (man portable air defence systems). Armour disrupted by anti-tank missiles. Neither of which would have been a surprise to students of the Arab Israeli conflicts of the 1960s and 1970s, but were relearned again. Out of this experience sprang a lot of the ideas around hybrid warfare and applying technology to area denial systems in an asymmetric way, from an economic perspective.
    • Afghanistan, Iraq. Both of these wars showed the limits of the western way of war-fighting. Weapons systems became expensive, the west didn’t have the stomach for deaths and insurgents were finding ever new ways of using consumer technology. Google Maps and Google Earth were used for planning, command and control of both terrorists and private military contractors. Consumer drones conducted surveillance and even delivered bombs. All of the western weaknesses were noted, most of all the perceived lack of western will. Afghanistan reinforced views in Russia and China that the west was in an accelerating slope of decline.
    • Ukraine and Syria. Ukraine and Syria have allowed Russia to refine its war fighting techniques from a communications and technological perspective, as well as testing asymmetric techniques and also defending against them.

    Wider parameters of war

    Kilcullen highlights the way hacking, espionage, propaganda, weaponised diaspora, elite capture online crime, organised crime, misinformation, bribery, soft power, sharp power and private military operators mean that we are in a war that western leaders currently refuse to acknowledge. This then further emboldens Russia, China and the likes of Iran and North Korea. It felt strangely prescient that I was reading the book when MI5 issued a security warning about Christine Lee and Russia threatened to invade Ukraine.

    Byzantine outlook

    Disturbingly in The Dragon and The Snakes, Kilcullen thinks that the best way that the west can handle China and Russia is learning from the Byzantine empire’s ability to forestall collapse. This implies a few things:

    1. He doesn’t believe that the west can find its way to effectively combatting China or Russia
    2. He doesn’t believe that western systems of governance will survive
    3. He believes that dragon and the snakes have more durable and effective systems of governance and war

    All of which indicates an increasingly dark dystopian future.

    In The Dragons and The Snakes Kilcullen provides a cogent well-researched and written picture of our current situation. If his work scares the crap out of enough people, we may even get answers to the multitude of problems that he outlines. More on the book here.

  • Freedom by Nathan Law

    I was sent a copy of Freedom as a gift, so I tried to come at the book with an open mind. I wrestled with a number of things reading book, which will come out a bit later on.

    Freedom by Nathan Law with Evan Fowler

    Is Freedom any good?

    Early on this was a question that I was asking myself. Freedom clearly wasn’t a book with someone like me in mind. I have read a number of the China and Hong Kong books out there, kept up with the latest thinking and for a time lived in the city.

    I could see that the book might be written for others as a primer. It is a swift tour through Mr Law’s own story, the resurgent nature of China across as an authoritarian state. China’s power projection beyond its borders and the nature of authoritarianism in general. He also tells the story from his perspective of the Hong Kong protests.

    The reality is that in this ambition for Freedom, Law and Fowler have squeezed the territory of at least half a dozen books into one slim paperback.

    Mr Law’s own story

    Mr Law’s own story mirrors that of previous generations of Hong Kongers. His father escaped from the mainland and brought his wife and son across. The honesty of Mr Law’s story comes through his own admission of how few memories he had of life before Hong Kong. His concern about China at this time is more from the life of his parents. He only really remembers the sun on his back and hugging his Mum on her bicycle. He relies on the struggle of his parents in China, during and after the cultural revolution to tell the story of an authoritarian state.

    Hong Kong like Shenzhen is a city of immigrants. Chinese people from Guangdong, Fujian and Shanghai have moved to the city over the decades in waves. As an immigrant child Mr Law is an everyman Hong Konger.

    Two other aspects of Law’s story struck me. The first was the honesty with which he talked about not wanting to engage with the 2019 protests at first as he was going to Yale on a full scholarship.

    The second was the way he talked about the horror of a custodial sentence. I have no desire to go to jail, but about a third of the UK population has a criminal record. It isn’t quite the ‘mark of Cain’ that it seems to be in Hong Kong. That says a lot about the kind of society that Hong Kong is.

    The nature of China

    I think other people have done a better job of talking about the nature of the Chinese government, in particular its approach to governance and foreign policy. Mr Law just can’t cover the ground needed in Freedom, he doesn’t have the space. I will include a list of recommended material on China at the end of this post.

    The Hong Kong protests

    The main thing that struck me about Mr Law’s account of the Hong Kong protests is a sense of restraint in the telling. He pulls his punches and allows the reader to draw their own conclusions, or do their own research. This is especially apparent with Mr Law’s description of the Yuen Long incident.

    If you want the general gist of the Yuen Long incident, there was a good documentary that the Hong Kong government clamped down on called 7.21 Who Owns the Truth? produced by Yuk-Ling ‘Bao’ Choy

    Tone of voice

    I was trying to put my finger on the tone of voice in Freedom. What did it remind me of? Eventually I realised that it reminded me of the kind of content I had read previously by the likes of think tanks like Demos during the New Labour era. So far the Hong Kong protestors have managed to engage and activate right of centre politicians across Europe, the US and the UK. But more progressive voices aren’t engaging with the situation in Hong Kong. I took this book as an attempt to reach out to the wonks in this camp. Activists like Mr Law would need to create receptivity in the the people who work for progressive politicians before they can engage with the politicians themselves.

    Hence the primer approach, so that these people would delve further into China. You can find out more about Freedom by Nathan Law with Evan Fowler here.

    Other recommended reading to get you started

    Hidden Hand by Clive Hamilton & Mareike Ohlberg

    Chinese communist espionage by Peter Mattis with Matthew Brazil

    The Dragon and The Snakes by David Kilcullen

    Prisoner of The State by Zhao Ziyang

    Red Roulette by Desmond Shum

    City of Protest by Antony Dapiran

    Rebel City by Jeffie Lam

  • The Coddling of the American Mind

    The Coddling of the American Mind by Greg Lukianoff and Jonathan Haidt. The book sprang out of an article that the authors wrote for The Atlantic – How Trigger Warnings Are Hurting Mental Health on Campus.

    Jonathan Haidt

    Haidt is a social psychologist by training and currently serves as professor of ethical leadership at New York University Stern School of Business. I heard an interview with Haidt on the the dark psychology of social networks and this book came up which was the key reason why I bought it.

    The Coddling of The American Mind

    Greg Lukianoff

    Lukianoff is a lawyer by training and president of Foundation for Individual Rights in Education (FIRE), a US based group that  free speech rights on college campuses. If it was Lukianoff on his own I would likely dismiss this book as partisan.

    Premise of The Coddling of the American Minds

    In The Coddling of the American Mind Haidt and Lukianoff discuss factors that are affecting the resilience of young people emerging from colleges in the US.

    They suggest a number of factors for the increasing intolerance and threats to American life from the left and the right.

    • Intimidation and violence on campus – the book highlights examples on both the left and right of the political spectrum. Violence by left wing protestors at Berkeley was particularly disturbing due to the lack of action by law enforcement
    • Witch hunts against academics
    • Self reinforcing cycle of political polarisation
    • Paranoid parenting compared to the latch-key parenting that older people would have been used to growing up
    • The decline of outdoor play
    • Safetyism – the move of safety culture from improving physical safety promoted by the likes of Ralph Nader (safer workplaces, no lead paint on toys etc) to encompass mental and emotional safety as a priority
    • The quest for justice. The complexity of how you define justice is important

    Haidt and Lukianoff are of the opinion that you need to prepare people for life and to be resilient. That this approach doesn’t detract from the desire to change the world seems to be ignored by advocates of the status quo.

    How the book has been received?

    The Financial Times generally praised the book and it ended up on the New York Times bestsellers list.

    The book was perceived as an attack on progressive liberal values by some reviewers, whereas I think it wasn’t attack on those values, but the means by which they are being pursued. It confronts the hard truth that there is intolerance at both ends of the political spectrum and a lack of dialogue.

    Has campus liberalism gone too far? | Financial Times

    The Idioms of Non-Argument | The Atlantic

    Does Our Cultural Obsession With Safety Spell the Downfall of Democracy? | The New York Times

    Have Parents Made Their Kids Too Fragile For the Rough and Tumble of Life? | Washington Post

  • The rise & fall of American growth

    The rise and fall of American growth

    It has been five years since The rise and fall of American growth was written by Robert J Gordon. When it was first published it was a New York Times bestseller and won awards from the FT and McKinsey. I felt that it was particularly interesting to go back and visit now, given current economic circumstances and the view that its data provides on the techno-optimism versus techno-pessimism that is currently raging on.

    The Rise and Fall of American Growth

    Understanding the author’s perspective

    Robert J Gordon developed his career as an economist in a crucible. He started his career during a time of battle between Keynesian and the monetarist supporting economists. Keynesian ideas had reached their peak in the 1950s. It was challenged by economists such as Milton Friedman and George Stigler. Both of whom were from the Chicago School. The Chicago School was the University of Chicago. It became a centre for economic conservativism. The Chicago School At his time, drew on the likes of Hayek for its ideas.

    Gordon became a ‘New Keynesian’. They assume that there is imperfect competition in price and wage setting to help explain why prices and wages can become “sticky”. They do not adjust instantaneously to changes in economic conditions. Wage and price stickiness, and the other market failures present in their models, imply that the economy may fail to achieve full employment. They argue that macroeconomic stabilisation by the government and the central bank leads to a more efficient macroeconomic outcome than a laissez faire policy would.

    American growth and techno-optimism

    The techno-optimism viewpoint is that continuing technology innovation is going to bring about a new golden age. There are essays trading perspectives on this back-and-forth.

    Gordon’s research suggests that the kind of growth suggested by techno-optimists as an outcome is usually because of very special circumstances.

    When he looked at American growth through the 19th century; growth had occurred in short spurts and much of it wasn’t driven by technology, but was multiple factors coming together. He further posits that those factors that drove American growth are unlikely to be repeated in the future.

    The last spurt of this growth was during the irrational exuberance of the dot com era.

    As you’d expect from an economist, Gordon pulls together to support his ideas very carefully and it is based on empirical analysis. IT has driven little economic growth, which makes one wonder about the benefits of digital transformation as touted by management consultancies.

    Gordon’s work is also an argument against globalisation, at least for the American economy. It brings into question the American dream.

    Finally, with technology unlikely to drive the kind of stellar growth promised, it brings into question the massive premium set on growth stocks over the long term and venture capital investments in the technology sector and the current Silicon Valley model.

    Gordon’s current research is focused on looking at European and American growth so it will be interesting to see commonalities and differences. I expect to see a spurt of growth from second generation mobile devices that freed up small businesses by providing an instantaneous connection with the customer. Rather than relying on an answer machines or a member of their family as receptionist.

    The Rise and Fall of American Growth: The U.S. Standard of Living since the Civil War: 70 (The Princeton Economic History of the Western World, 70)

    More book reviews can be found here.

    More information

    Robert Gordon’s academic papers here.

    Answering the Techno-Pessimists (complete) – Noahpinion 

    Interview: Patrick Collison, co-founder and CEO of Stripe – Noahpinion

  • Get Tough by William E Fairbairn

    What is Get Tough?

    Get Tough is a book on hand-to-hand fighting originally published in 1942. It is important for what it represents as much as it is with regards its content.

    Fairbairn as an author

    By the time Get Tough was written in 1942; Fairbairn was an experienced published author. In 1926, Fairbairn wrote the book Defendu. This was a step-by-step guide to Fairbairn’s fighting system that distilled his experience in street fights, alongside the jujuitsu he learned from early Japanese teachers that went abroad. In this respect Fairbairn, was similar to the Gracie family in Brazil, Imi Lichtenfeld’s Krav Maga and the Soviet founders of SAMBO. Globalisation drove hybrid fighting styles. Something we’d later see with mixed martial arts in general.

    Defendu as a title didn’t catch on that well as a title so it was republished as Scientific Self-Defence in 1931.

    The second world war resulted in Fairbairn’s most prolific period as an author. He wrote Shooting to Live with a colleague and firearms expert Eric Sykes. All-In Fighting was written by Fairbairn as a manual in close quarters combat. Though a section on using firearms in a close up situation was contributed by P.N. Walbridge.

    Get Tough was an American and Australian edition of All-in Fighting, but without the section by P.N. Walbridge. Where All-in Fighting was aimed at the soldiers Fairbairn and his colleagues taught, Get Tough looked to appeal to a wider audience.

    Fairbairn provided an edited version of his work called Self Defence For Women and Girls, which is about a quarter of the pages of Get Tough. There was also an American edition retitled Hands-Off!

    Fairbairn managed to write the book whilst training British commandos. Fairbairn and Sykes had a falling out sometime in 1942 and were never reconciled. Fairbairn took his expertise to to the US and Canada. Sykes carried on teaching in the UK.

    Get Tough and colonialism

    Get Tough was a distillation of experience that Fairbairn had in Korea and then later in Shanghai. As a member of the Shanghai Municipal Police he had been involved in hundreds of fights with local and international residents of the port city.

    The experience led to Fairbairn to play a role in developing:

    • Anti-riot techniques
    • Police sniping techniques with Eric Sykes
    • The Defendu fighting style
    • Two types of knives. The Fairbairn-Sykes fighting knife. A slender but sharp double sided stiletto blade designed the weapon to strike at the vulnerable parts of an opponent’s body, especially the vital organs. The original version was known as the Shanghai knife and had a 6 inch blade. It was likely part of the cache of illegal weapons that Fairbairn and Sykes brought back to the UK from Shanghai during the war. The military versions were 1.5 inches longer, to get through winter clothing. The Smachet, a large broad knife almost like a machete or a Roman sword

    Fairbairn’s work was based on the health and lives of colonial subjects. Fairbairn often enjoys exclusive credit for this work, but the reality was that it was a collaborative effort from several officers in the Shanghai Municipal Police including Eric Sykes and Dermot O’Neill. The Shanghai Municipal Police was what modern organisational theorists would have termed a ‘learning organisation’.

    Part of this learning culture was forced upon them by events. The Shanghai Municipal Police killed four members of a protest in May 1925 because they didn’t have enough police on duty to manage a demonstration. This felt rather similar to the Amritsar shootings of 1919, which shattered support for British rule in India by both Indians and people in the UK.

    This led to the Shanghai Municipal Police founding the first modern SWAT team called the reserve unit; this unit was also responsible for modern methods of policing riots.

    The Get Tough legacy

    Defendu had been taught to hundreds of policemen who rotated through Shanghai before the second world war. They then went on to work in other outposts of the British Empire in a policing or military capacity.

    When Sykes and Fairbairn brought their particular set of skills back to the UK in 1940. They were put to work training commandos and and secret agents in their skills. These skills were taught to military age men and women, the women were predominantly going to be dropped by parachute into occupied Europe.

    Again hundreds, if not thousands of people passed through the schools that they ran in Scotland and the south coast of England. Some of the people who went through those schools were from overseas. When they eventually went home, the ideas and training that they learned went with them and were put to use. At first trying to retain colonial rule. Then later, building up nascent special forces units including units from the US, Belgium, Holland, Canada, New Zealand and Australia.

    Over time these countries evolved their techniques to match modern war, but the principles where still there.

    After the second world war, the colonial policemen of the Shanghai Municipal Police who survived scattered across the British empire. Fairbairn went to Cyprus to train police in his techniques. He then ran two sessions in Singapore for the newly formed riot squad unit.

    The contents of Get Tough

    Fairbairn wrote Get Tough for a wide range of readers, not just the military as Fairbairn himself said:

    It is not the armed forces of the United Nations alone who can profit by learning about how to win in hand-to-hand fighting. Every civilian, man or woman, who ever walks a deserted road at mid-night, or goes in fear of his life in the dark places of a city, should acquaint himself with these methods.

    Get Tough by William E. Fairbairn

    The book covers:

    • Blows
    • Releases – how to get out of holds by an assailant
    • Holds
    • Throws
    • Miscellaneous advice – mostly covering improvised weapons from things at hands
    • Use of the knife – Fairbairn talks about using the Sykes-Fairbairn fighting knife
    • The Smatchet – use of a short machete type weapon designed by Fairbairn
    • Disarming an opponent of his pistol

    If you’ve trained in a martial art, you’ll have done drills of some sort like katas in karate. Fairbairn’s work doesn’t have drills per se. The idea is that if you do the hold or the blow, you are unlikely to need follow up.

    More book reviews here.