Category: software | 軟件 | 소프트웨어 | ソフトウェア

Soon after I started writing this blog, web services came up as a serious challenger to software. The thing that swung the tide in software’s favour was the rise of the mobile app ecosystems.

Originally mobile apps solved a gnarly problem for smartphone companies. Web services took time to download and were awkward compared to native software.

Now we tend to have a hybrid model where the web holds authentication functionality and the underlying database for many applications to work. If you pick up a Nokia N900 today, while you can appreciate its beautiful design, the device is little more than a glowing brick. Such is the current symbiosis between between software apps and the web services that support them.

That symbiosis is very important, while on the one hand it makes my Yahoo! Finance and Accuweather apps very useful, it also presents security risks. Some of the trouble that dating app Grindr had with regards security was down to the programmers building on third party APIs and not understanding every part of the functionality.

This means that sometimes things that I have categorised as online services might fall into software and vice versa. In that respect what I put in this category takes on a largely arbitrary view of what is software.

The second thing about software is the individual choices as a decision making user, say a lot about us. I love to use Newsblur as an RSS reader as it fits my personal workflow. I know a lot of other people who prefer other readers that do largely the same job in a different way.

  • The Mattei Affair + more stuff

    The Mattei Affair

    The story of Eni

    I went down a rabbit hole when investigating a post that I have in draft at the moment and discovered The Mattei Affair. I got to find out more about Eni – one of Europe’s oil supermajors. Even though I had worked in the oil industry at the start of my carrier I didn’t have a good understanding of the story of Enrico Mattei. Despite the great work done in documenting the industry though Daniel Yergin‘s book The Prize published in 1990. Yergin’s book was recognised as the defacto history of the industry back when I worked in the oil industry.

    Francesco Rosi

    Who would have thought that a film maker would have been able to make a film about a prosaic story like the life of an oil industry executive? Francesco Rosi managed to create something special with The Mattei Affair. Enrico Mattei was an extraordinary oil industry executive who helped Italy recover economically from the post-war period until his death in 1962 in a mysterious private plane crash. Rosi has a very distinctive story style mixing documentary footage with docu-drama, often performed by non-professional actors. In this respect The Mattei Affair mirrors Rosi’s 1961 film of Sicilian bandit Salvatore Giuliano.

    The story line covers different aspects of Mattei’s career and then loops back to the aftermath of the plane crash providing an innovative form of non-linear storytelling.

    Rose’s film production became part of the story itself. A journalist that Rosi had used to research The Mattei Affair himself disappeared which added to the mystery surrounding Enrico Mattei and the film. Rose’s search for the missing investigative journalist became part of the film itself.

    So The Mattei Affair is a remarkable film for all sorts of reasons.

    Mauro De Mauro

    Mauro De Mauro was the journalist that Rosi had hired to dig into The Mattei Affair and try to find out what had happened. At the time De Mauro worked for L’Ora newspaper based in Palermo, Sicily. He disappeared in September 1970 and his body was never found.

    Hard to find

    De Mauro wasn’t the only hard to find aspect of The Mattei Affair. For a film that won the grand prize at the Cannes Film Festival it had been very hard to find, even in the world of YouTube. It had a limited screening in the US with just one screen showing the film in New York back in 1973. It doesn’t appear at film festivals as a retrospective.

    The BBC apparently tried to licence it for broadcast in the mid-1990s and failed. Bootleg DVDs of the film occasionally surface, but its never been licensed and released on Blu-Ray or DVD, which is very strange indeed, given the remarkable nature of the film and story behind it.

    The New York Times review of the film published on May 21, 1973 described the film as an ‘immensely honorable but unsuccessful film’, rather like the reviewer was trying to bury a film that they themselves were intrigued by and had enjoyed watching.

    I found the film to be intriguing, enjoyable and beautifully shot. I was haunted by the story that I had seen on screen and am puzzled by the film’s lack of wider distribution – given the significant nature of the film in its own right.

    Subaru Impreza 22B

    Nothing brings home the inflationary world of cars at the moment like this review of the Subaru Impreza 22B STi. This was the first Impreza model to do well in rallying after the legacy, though much of this was down to the disqualification of Toyota’s Celica GT-4 cars that had been previously all-conquering. These cars were sold in Japan and made it outside on the grey market import scene over time, there were less than 500 of this particular model made. One of these Subaru cars with just the delivery mileage had been put in storage for over 20 years and sold for £295,000 in 2020.

    This Subaru isn’t a bonkers road going version of the Ford RS200 or an Audi Sport Quattro of the mid-1980s. This nicely kept, but worn in version of the Impreza 22B STi is still worth more than £200,000. By comparison you can buy a 1987 vintage Toyota Celica GT-4 from Japan (so it will have been well looked after in comparison to the UK, with just 77,000 kilometres on the clock) for about 4.2 million yen or £26,000 plus import costs. You can find even better bargains if you are prepared to have up to 100,000km on the clock.

    For that you are getting a similarly fast Japanese piece of Group A homologation rally history in a smaller package and prettier looking. And its a Toyota, which means the kind of reliability that Mercedes used to be famous for. And with the extra money you can buy yourself a 1980s vintage Porsche 911 SC or even an early 1990s Porsche 911 Carrera 4 coupé.

    Open AI takes on e-sports

    Open AI built a machine to do for e-sports for DeepMind did for Go. The Open AI team focused on Dota 2. More from a talk by the Computer History Museum here.

    All of this is very impressive, but we are still a good distance from having a ‘general purpose AI’ that works across multiple disciplines. Once the system is trained on a particular model, it can’t then learn new skills or areas of expertise and apply the knowledge across areas. The models used in Open AI are deep reinforcement learning (or Deep RL in programmer lingo), all of which goes back to the neural network academic work done from the mid-1980s to the early 1990s. It was first applied to a backgammon game.

    Interest in it amongst technologists is due to one book first written in 1998: Reinforcement Learning: An introduction. The point being is that ‘AI’ champions like Google and others, haven’t moved the science of artificial intelligence on any further, but are throwing more processing power at it instead.

    Your Hit Parade

    I came across this 1955 TV show that was syndicated around NBC TV and radio affiliate stations as black and white film. It was interesting to see the way primary programme sponsor Lucky Strike was integrated into the show. Secondary sponsor ‘Pin Curls’ got a very brief mention at the beginning of the show, in a ‘blink and you’d miss it’ kind of placement.

    “readings of radio requests, sheet music sales, dance hall favorites and jukebox tabulations”

    Your Hit Parade chart methodology

    The use of the word tabulate to indicate how the hit parade chart was compiled, implying mechanical computing in the background. I don’t know whether a juke box could of determined the number of plays of each record at the time. Dance hall favourites sounds particularly nebulous. Finally radio plays wasn’t included in the chart mechanism, instead there was the vague ‘reading out of radio requests’.

    By 1949, we know that there were steps taken to try and stamp out paid placement aka Payola, but music publishers didn’t engage with this process in a positive manner. When it eventually became a scandal the big music companies tried to tie payola to rock and roll music. Independent record companies or music publishers frequently used payola to promote rock and roll on American radio. The reason for these payments was to get around DJs own biases regarding ‘black sounding music’. Payola got put under a spotlight after a congressional investigation in 1958 and 59 that killed DJ Alan Freed’s career and saw Dick Clark transition to television.

  • Hino trucks + more news

    Hino trucks

    Hino Motors is a car and truck manufacturer best known for its iconic Hino trucks. It started its convoluted origin story spinning out of manufacturing company owned by Tokyo Gas.

    Hino 1973

    Before there was Hino trucks, there were a small amount of half tracks and armoured personnel carriers made for the Imperial Japanese Army. After the war Hino got into the truck business and for a brief while also made cars. The pretty Hino Contessa coupé showed potential, but becoming part of the Toyota group saw Hino focus on commercial vehicles under its own name.

    Hino, Green

    Hino trucks with their winged logo marked my childhood in Ireland. Hino trucks pulled palleted loads on taunt liner trailers, shipping containers and flat bed trailers of hay. The supermarket delivery wagons, the bakers lorry, skip deliveries, ready mix and the dairy picking up milk from my Uncle’s farm were all using Hino trucks. The distinctive unblinking three green lights on the roof of oncoming Hino trucks stood out of the total darkness of rural Irish roads.

    hino sh28

    I had Robert ‘Pino’ Harris to thank for making Ireland the Hino trucks capital of Europe at the time. And his Hino trucks success story is one of a singular focus on relationships and customer service.

    So it saddened me to read about Hino trucks emissions scandal relating to their diesel engines. Toyota/Hino: truck unit not strong enough to overcome emissions data scandal  | Financial Times

    China

    Adidas ousts China chief as sales suffer after consumer boycott over Xinjiang | Financial TimesAllison Malmsten, sportswear analyst at China-focused consultancy Daxue Consulting, said that since the boycott, Nike and Adidas have ceded their top position on ecommerce apps such as Alibaba’s Tmall. In their place, local online retailers have promoted Li-Ning and Anta, making the “competition a lot stiffer”.Jonathan Cummings, Asia-Pacific president of brand consultancy Landor and Fitch, said that after years of market dominance, Adidas and Nike were being challenged by “cheaper domestic brands that have become stronger”.Adidas generated nearly a quarter of its sales in the Greater China region in the first half of last year, the bulk of which came from mainland China. – it will be interesting to see where adidas will try to go in China and whether they feel it is worth riling western customers to arrest their decline in China

    The rising costs of China’s friendship with Russia | Financial TimesWhen the Russian invasion of Ukraine started two weeks ago, Jane Yan, a senior executive at a machine parts maker in eastern China, says she was not too worried about the impact. After all, buyers in Russia and Ukraine accounted for less than 5 per cent of the company’s overseas sales last year. But as the full ferocity of the Russian onslaught started to become apparent, the outlook shifted dramatically. Important clients in countries such as Poland and Germany cancelled orders with the Zhejiang-based company. “A Munich-based client said ‘it feels terribly wrong to send money to a country that is tolerating war in Ukraine — sorry’,” said Yan, who asked that her employer not be identified. She added that inquiries from European buyers have also fallen sharply since the conflict started. “I hope the war ends as soon as possible.” – I wonder how prevalent this consumer boycott actually is of Chinese products?

    Culture

    Why disco will never truly die — Quartz – interesting, but full of American privilege, but no love for producers like Giorgio Moroder, Luxxury, Dimitri from Paris, Late Night Tuff Guy or The Reflex

    Ideas

    How factory robots lead to human deaths – Futurity“For decades, manufacturers in the United States have turned to automation to remain competitive in a global marketplace, but this technological innovation has reduced the number of quality jobs available to adults without a college degree—a group that has faced increased mortality in recent years,” says lead author Rourke O’Brien, assistant professor of sociology at Yale University. 

    Our analysis shows that automation exacts a toll on the health of individuals both directly—by reducing employment, wages, and access to healthcare—as well as indirectly, by reducing the economic vitality of the broader community.” 

    Since 1980, mortality rates in the United States have diverged from those in other high-income countries. Today, Americans on average die three years sooner than their counterparts in other wealthy nations. 

    EACH NEW ROBOT PER 1,000 WORKERS LED TO ABOUT 8 ADDITIONAL DEATHS PER 100,000 MALES AGED 45 TO 54 AND NEARLY 4 ADDITIONAL DEATHS PER 100,000 FEMALES IN THE SAME AGE GROUP. 
    Automation is a major source of the decline of US manufacturing jobs along with other factors, including competition with manufacturers in countries with lower labor costs, such as China and Mexico.
     

    Previous research has shown that the adoption of industrial robots caused the loss of an estimated 420,000 to 750,000 jobs during the 1990s and 2000s, the majority of which were in manufacturing.

    Korea

    The legal battle threatening Samsung’s dynasty | Financial Times

    Nearly 40% of Manufacturers on Brink of Insolvency – The Chosun Ilbo (English Edition) – this is small and medium sized businesses. This is worse than the 2008 financial crisis

    Legal

    Letters: No need for a WeChat ban | Australian Financial Review – not sure if Tencent would play along

    Marketing

    “Wank pods” to become a new work perk for Stripchat employees | Stripcat – cheap PR stunt

    What Is Message Testing, and Why Does It Matter?  | GLG 

    Materials

    Boeing suspends buying titanium from Russia | RTÉ News 

    Retailing

    Uniqlo to Keep Stores in Russia Open As Zara, H&M Pull Out 

    Security

    Another Chinese Hacking Tool Discovered By Symantec | Gizchina – interesting that it was aimed at high-level, non western government agencies. What is the equivalent that they are using in the west then? How about U.S. State Governments Hit in Chinese Hacking Spree – WSJ 

    Supply chain giant Expeditors is still recovering from cyberattack, expects ‘material adverse impact’ – GeekWire 

    Software

    Russian Cybersecurity Giant Kaspersky Tries to Maintain Neutrality During Ukraine War

    RuTracker.org, once the largest resource website in Russia, has recently been unblocked, after Microsoft, Adobe, game developers, etc. announced that they are banned from selling products in Russia – yqqlm – Gamingsym – BitTorrent to be main source of software and entertainment for Russians, opportunity for western governments to spread malware

    Technology

    It’s Not ‘Too Late’ for Intel to Beat the Apple M1 – ExtremeTech – so two questions come out of this.

    1. Can Intel out-design Apple in terms of chips? I think that is certainly possible, possibly even extremely likely
    2. Can Intel compete with Apple on process? Possibly soon, if they managed to partner with Samsung or TSMC. Certainly in the longer term if Intel’s process engineers get their mojo back, or they continue to partner with TSMC or Samsung

    Apple goes chiplet for 114bn transistor M1 Ultra – eeNews Europe 

    Telecoms

    Huawei UK’s British board members resign over Russia-Ukraine stance | Reuters 

    Web of no web

    Roundtable: A Brutally Honest Conversation on the MetaverseWeb 2.0 Is about the individual/the corporation, and Web 3.0 is about the collectivist statement, or the community / collectivist environment, in some ways. – interesting that there is a whole piece missing about web 1.0 being about personal and organisation publishing and communications. Web 2.0 being a web of data and creativity

  • 3G graduation + more stuff

    3G graduation film

    3G graduation sees DoCoMo celebrating 3G wireless services and how they fitted into consumers lives. While DoCoMo has its service running for another couple of years, rival Au has shut down its 3G network this year. The ‘Graduation’ in 3G graduation is used in a similar way to how US technology companies use ‘sunset’ as a euphemism for shutting down a service.

    In sectors outside technology like the 3G graduation film, the term graduation is signify an artist leaving an idol group. Japanese Idol groups like AKB48 and Morning Musume mirror the interchangeable team nature of Puerto Rican boy bandma Menudo. Like Japanese idol groups, Menudo appeared in adverts for big brands like Pepsi and McDonalds across Latin and South America (including Portuguese speaking Brazil). They even appeared in a Pepsi ad that ran in the Philippines. They also did two TV specials. Japanese idol groups contain pop stars with the following characteristics:

    a type of entertainer marketed for image, attractiveness, and personality in Japanese pop culture. Idols are primarily singers with training in acting, dancing, and modeling. Idols are commercialized through merchandise and endorsements by talent agencies, while maintaining a parasocial relationship with a financially loyal consumer fan base.

    Wikipedia: Japanese idol

    When members leave the group due to contract violations, ageing out, or wanting to build a career of their own, they ‘graduate’. Like the 3G graduation film idols share an association with school imagery.

    https://youtu.be/dKxjw3YntBk

    Kit-Kat anime advert

    Nestlé Kit-Kats are popular in Japan. They are especially popular during exam time. The reason for this is that the Japanese pronunciation of KitKat, “Kitto Katto,” sounds similar to the phrase “Kitto katsu,” which means “I believe you will win/you can do it.” The homophone nature of Kitto Katto meant that Kit-Kats became a good luck charm, with people having them or giving them as gifts for big days such as school entrance exams or even job interviews.

    This explains why this anime advert directed by Naoko Yamada is around the theme of “Kikkake wa Kit Kat de,” or “Kit-Kat Creates the Chance,” and has a school related setting.

    This is apparently the first of what promises to be a series of adverts being done by Yamada for Kit-Kat.

    Modern car mechanical design

    For someone who hasn’t bought a car in 25 years, hearing about how unreliable BMWS and Mercedes cars have become is a bit of a shock. I have driven hire cars and am aware that cars are now heavily reliant on computers. What I hadn’t realised was how cheap mechanical parts had become under the hood. The reason why they had been engineered down to a price, was to allow for the price of all the new electronics that make up the car driving experience now.

    I started my work life off in a corporate research lab were we were developing a way of making a plastic manifold cover for a small Ford of Europe engine. This engine was destined for the Ford Fiesta and the first Ka if we had managed to get everything to work. The idea was that the engine would be a sealed unit. When it needed to be replaced it would undergo a factory recondition, or would be recycled. This was about reducing environmental impact, without impacting profits. But looking at some of the parts going into these cars now, I am shocked.

    More in this video here.

    Amazon luxury watch copies

    Amazon is a den of iniquity in terms of shoddy products and fakes. German watch YouTuber shows the variety of watches that steal the design language of watches from the likes of:

    • Nomos
    • TAG Heuer
    • Breitling
    • Rolex
    • Audemars Piguet
    • Patek Philippe

    All of these come in at about $100 price. It is interesting how the Chinese factories turning these watches out have managed to get their way around the brand police. Finally, I am surprised to see Chinese manufacturers relying on a cheap, but reliable Seiko movement for the most part. Which is probably down to the weird deficiencies in Chinese engineering that means that you don’t see Chinese made rollerball pen refills.

    The amazing design of the jerry can

    Great video by a Scottish YouTuber who covers why the jerry can was such a clever product design and the history of the fuel container. I did not realise that they were tested in the Spanish civil war. More here.

    NFTs and Ralph Bakshi’s animated adaptation of The Lord of The Rings

    The problems with NFTs. NFTs sprung out of the move to decentralised finance or cryptocurrency. NFT are smart contract linked artefacts. These were seen as a panacea for creatives to make money during COVID. This video is an interesting discussion on NFTs, and uses the analogy of investors buying real estate that drove the 2008 mortgage crisis. The crypto-economy has many of the same drivers.

    The guy who made this video also did a really good exhaustive history of Ralph Bakshi‘s The Lord of The Rings film that preceded Peter Jackson’s The Lord of the Rings trilogy by a couple of decades, and the BBC’s radio adaptation by a few years. I am a fan of all three, but am in no doubt that Peter Jackson’s film in some places is a shot-for-shot copy of Bakshi’s film and borrows dialogue from both Bakshi and the BBC.

  • Sony and Honda + more news

    Sony and Honda

    Sony and Honda reveal plans to jointly make and sell electric vehicles | TechCrunch – this might also explain why Sony’s ‘concept’ car seemed to have a lot of money put into it, to make it look like a finished product a couple of years ago. Sony and Honda’s EV venture is a lesson for corporate Japan | Financial Times – the FT makes a number of good points about the relatively junior role that Honda is taking in the endeavour and that Sony making a decision to go independent indicates that consolidation of vendors in the electrical vehicle space is far off. I expect that the Sony and Honda deal in this respect is partly the pressures driven by the amount of ‘dumb capital’ chasing electric and automotive vehicles.

    Sony and Honda likely see their deal as an antidote to that pressure. There were also fair comments made about relative software expertise between Sony and Honda, however I would argue that there is still a need for stable underpinnings of the software from the likes of QNX. But in the critique of the previous motor industry partnerships isn’t fair. For instance, Yamaha has a long history of taking concepts and designs to Toyota for them to build them. The most iconic of which was the Toyota 2000GT. So in many respects Sony and Honda are working on similar heritage to others.

    It is interesting that we haven’t seen a similar pairing to Sony and Honda between Samsung and Renault, given their Korean car assembly joint venture. It is also interesting that Apple has failed to secure a similar partnership to Sony and Honda in its car efforts so far.

    China

    Baby bust: what happens when China’s population shrinks? | Chinese Whispers | The Spectator

    How bad could China-US relations get? With Rana Mitter – New Statesman 

    China’s Two Traps by Keun Lee – Project SyndicateChina’s economic slowdown suggests, the next phase of its development is rife with challenges. The country risks being ensnared by two traps: the “middle-income trap” (the tendency of fast-growing developing economies to lose momentum once they reach middle-income status) and the Thucydides Trap (when tensions between an insecure incumbent hegemon and a rising power lead to conflict)

    Two sessions’ 2022: China sets GDP growth target of ‘around 5.5 per cent’ | South China Morning Post – defence budget rising by 7.1 percent to 1.3 trillion yuan

    WeDoctor Is Said to Cut Workforce After Delay in Going Public – Bloomberg 

    Xi Jinping Warns Missteps on Ethnic Issues Would Destabilize China – Bloomberg 

    China’s President Xi reiterates grain security, urges for domestic dominance | Reuters – interesting how food security has been a recurring theme for Chinese policy makers over the past few years

    Culture

    50 Objects From Around the World #18: Chinese Kitchen God | Financial Times you can find the full set of objects here: The home in 50 objects from around the world | Financial Times

    Why are Chinese students so keen on the UK? – BBC News

    Why are Chinese students so keen on the UK? – BBC NewsThe initial attraction of Glasgow – as well as its solid academic reputation – to many was how the Victorian university buildings looked on the brochures, rather like Hogwarts from the Harry Potter films

    Design

    Search Party — Real Life – the psychology that goes into Google’s ‘I’m feeling lucky’ button

    Economics

    How Russia’s airline industry was pushed to the brink in a week | Financial Times – the bit that this doesn’t mention is the large payments that the Russian government used to enjoy from foreign airlines going over its territory to reach east Asia

    How are the Big Sanctions hurting Russia so far? – Interesting read that somewhat matches up with what I wrote about Ukraine here.

    How China’s Ambitious Belt and Road Plans for East Africa Came Apart – The DiplomatChinese actors typically approach BRI deals with two contradictory assumptions: First, the political leadership with whom they are dealing is either too weak or too venal to challenge contract terms that decidedly favor China; and, second, these same leaders will be strong enough to fend off resistance to ambitious infrastructure projects by opposition politicians and civil society groups while also mobilizing the financial resources necessary to sustain expensive, long term projects. – they expect the kind of smooth running process that they would have in China, but not surprisingly don’t get it

    Energy

    Tory MPs urge bigger ‘floating’ wind target to boost energy security | Financial Times – I am surprised that tidal isn’t getting more prominence as an energy source

    A reprieve for coal? Xi Jinping urges ‘realism’ on China’s road to carbon goals | South China Morning Post – Green transition can’t be made overnight and progress must be steady, he says. Focus on stability comes as fossil fuel use rises and Russia’s invasion pushes up energy prices – translation ‘all that green energy stuff we said at Davos was just to make anxious white people happy and get them off our back’. Its also interesting to see that Chinese subsidies on electric car purchases are being removed: China to end NEV subsidy policy at end of 2022 

    Finance

    The EU is homing in on dirty money – CEPS 

    Chinese lenders squeeze African borrowers even harder | Financial TimesChinese lenders are imposing even more stringent collateral requirements on low-income country borrowers than previously known as they seek to hedge risks from their extensive overseas development finance programme. Under a $200mn loan from China Eximbank for the expansion and modernisation of Entebbe airport, the Ugandan government is required to channel all revenue from the country’s only international airport into an escrow account, according to the contract obtained by AidData, a US-based research lab. The document highlights a long-running controversy over the loan to Uganda’s government, which damaged its relationship with the bank. And more here: China cobalt mine deal was ‘injustice’: my country did not get anything, ex-DRC leader says | South China Morning Post 

    Hong Kong

    Chinese fitness app Keep files for Hong Kong IPO · TechNode – interesting that this is going ahead given the kind of data that Keep would have. One only needs to look at the opsec failures that Strava revealed of American forces in the Middle East and Afghanistan

    Chinese EV start-up NIO seeks quicker secondary listing in Hong Kong via introduction, skips fundraising | South China Morning Post 

    Ideas

    In 1961, MLK taught a college class. Its syllabus might be contentious today | Financial Times – Dr King’s course on classical political philosophy

    Our New Cloud-Based Ruling Class by Yanis Varoufakis – Project SyndicateToday, however, a new form of capital is emerging and is forging a new ruling class, perhaps even a new mode of production. 

    Innovation

    Europe’s quantum tech on show at MWC – eeNews Europe 

    Japan

    Rakuten Symphony acquires Kubernetes platform Robin.io | TechCrunch – likely an acquihire

    Toshiba CEO suddenly resigns amid opposition to restructuring plans | Reuters 

    The war in Ukraine is going to change geopolitics profoundly | The EconomistJapan, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan joined in sanctions against Russia, as did Australia. The change of mood in Japan has been particularly striking. Over the past decades it has tirelessly wooed Russia, in part to counterbalance China but also in the hope of settling the problem of four northern islands seized by the Soviet Union. Abe Shinzo, the former prime minister, met Mr Putin 27 times, including a trip to an onsen bathhouse. Now, under Kishida Fumio, Japan has frozen the share of Russia’s central bank reserves held in the country and is urging fence-sitters to take a clearer stance against its former pal. The end of the cold war was never going to usher in perpetual peace. But the Ukraine crisis is giving new form to the possibilities for future conflict and ways in which it may be averted. It is raising the previously outré possibility of territory being stripped from a developed country by force. By bringing Russia and China closer together, it is putting a new burden on the system of American alliances that partially encircles them. It has started consolidating Europe’s belief in itself and its ideals, and may increase its willingness to fight for them; it may also be seeing Germany and Japan, a lifetime after their defeat in the second world war, taking on new martial roles – the military rise of Japan will be worrying for China

    Korea

    Chinese game developers drive $20bn market cap wipeout of South Korea rivals | Financial Times

    Materials

    Metrology Primer – by Doug (mule) – Fabricated Knowledge – well worth reading if you want to know more about the ins and outs of semiconductor manufacturing

    Media

    How a (Canadian-founded) company you’ve never heard of took control of the porn industry | National Post – great article on the rise of tube sites like Pornhub and the platform’s moderation problems Behind Pornhub’s decade-old moderation problems 

    Australia’s Standoff Against Google and Facebook Worked—Sort Of | WIRED 

    Security

    Chinese state-owned think tank flags national security risks of metaverse, citing potential political and social problems | South China Morning Post 

    Ukraine conflict risks uncontrollable escalation of cyberwarfare – Nikkei AsiaWhen and if Russia, or some other advanced-hacking state, pulls these tricks against a better-prepared adversary, resulting in a tit-for-tat escalation that could quickly spin out of control. Given the historical weakness of digital security in much of the U.S.’s civilian infrastructure, notably the electric utilities and grid, we can imagine a situation in which Russia or China, or some other entity causes not just inconvenience but casualties, including deaths. What would the U.S. do then? If Russia took down electricity from Boston to Washington, New York to Chicago, the American people would get very, very angry. What would an American government do next? The U.S. has said, with strategic vagueness, that an attack on critical infrastructure, including digital infrastructure, could ultimately trigger a military response. Then what? In 1962, futurist Herman Kahn published “Thinking the Unthinkable,” pondering nuclear-war scenarios in ways that few of the people who had control over those civilization-killing weapons had ever considered. No one wanted to prevent nuclear war more than Kahn, in part because he understood what it would mean. We do not believe that nearly enough thinking about cyber-unthinkables is taking place today, nor the escalation scenarios that would bring them on.

    Chinese telecoms giant Huawei has been helping Putin’s efforts to stabilise Russia’s internet | Daily Mail OnlineHuawei, which reportedly has five research centres in Russia, is said to have ‘rushed to Russia’s aid’ to support its internet network in the face of the attacks. A report, which appeared on a Chinese news site but was later deleted, claimed that Huawei would use its research centres to train ‘50,000 technical experts in Russia’.The Mail on Sunday is now covering the kind of stories that previously only featured on the English language pages of late lamented Apple Daily Online published out of Hong Kong.

    Singapore

    Sea Earnings: Market Value Falls to $132 Billion – Bloomberg

    Grab Loss Swells as Pandemic Hampers Ride-Hailing Demand – Bloomberg and interesting analysis on Grab Telegram: Contact @finbiteinsights TL;DR cost of acquisition is too high

    ‘They took my world’: fashion giant Shein accused of art theft | Art and design | The Guardian – how will legal issues like this affect Shein’s ability to list on foreign stock exchanges like Singapore?

    Taiwan

    Political economists’ views over Russia-Ukraine crisis, China and semiconductors (Part 1) | DigiTimes

    Technology

    Arm China CEO asserts semiconductor joint venture’s right to pursue an IPO independent from its SoftBank-owned British parent | South China Morning Post“Arm has written to Chinese authorities that Arm China won’t survive without [the British firm’s] support,” Wu said. He indicated, however, that Arm China has already developed the capability to continue its operations separately from Arm in the UK. The stand taken by Wu in Arm China forms part of a larger effort by the country’s semiconductor industry to overcome US trade sanctions and build a world-class chip supply chain. The dispute with Arm has not slowed down its Chinese joint venture’s business under Wu. Last year, Arm China generated US$700 million in total revenue, including intellectual property licensing and royalty fees. Arm’s share in its China venture was about US$500 million last year, according to Wu. “Arm can’t afford to lose its share of revenue from the Chinese market,” Wu said. He indicated that the Chinese joint venture has hit all its goals – including revenue, net profit, and research and development spending – which were set five years ago. Wu said Arm China’s biggest contribution to the Chinese chip design industry was to open the company’s source codes to domestic customers, “giving them freedom to develop their chips and raise their capabilities to a global level”. He also said he was displeased by Arm’s decision in May 2019 to cease business with Huawei Technologies Co, following Washington’s decision to add the Shenzhen-based telecommunications equipment maker to the US trade blacklist. – I suspect Mr Wu is working on behalf of the Chinese government in ‘war by other means’

    Web of no web

    China starts rebuff of various metaverse trademark applications amid rush to hype the internet’s next generation | South China Morning Post 

    China’s Xinhua jumps on NFT bandwagon with thousands of news photos to be issued as ‘digital collectibles’ | South China Morning Post 

    Alibaba, Tencent rebrand NFT offerings as ‘digital collectibles’ amid Beijing’s scrutiny of new virtual asset market | South China Morning Post 

    China’s local governments rush to embrace metaverse despite state media warnings | South China Morning Post 

  • Coinbase Super Bowl ad

    Coinbase advertises during Super Bowl

    On Monday afternoon, the buzz amongst my colleagues in New York was the Super Bowl from the night before. In particular the advertising and one advert by Coinbase sparked more discussions than others. The advert was divisive. Some people that there was something wrong with their smart TV which had triggered a dodgy screensaver. One person even first thought that the QRcode would take them through to a site that might explain whatever ransomware had hijacked their TV.

    They scanned the QRcode but it didn’t work properly. The reasons for it not working were twofold:

    • The contrast in the QRcode background and foreground wasn’t large enough for certain colours and so wouldn’t scan
    • The coinbase website fell over. This would be spun as unprecedented demand, but the reality was poor execution

    A game console style ROM screen revealed at the end that it was Coinbase. The management would likely pass the whole car crash off as growth hacking.

    Growth hacking

    Growth hacking as a term was attributed to a blog post by Sean Ellis back in 2010. But as a concept it goes back much further. A classic example of growth hacking could be considered to be FMCG staple of ‘buy one, get one free’ or BOGOF. The master of the growth hack was David Wallerstein came up with the idea of supersizing popcorn servings in the 1960s. Wallerstein came up with a behavioural change experiment as business idea based on the insight of that people might want to buy and eat more popcorn, but were simply ashamed of buying two bags at the cinema. Wallerstein was successful in his experiment. Wallerstein was appointed by Ray Kroc to the board of McDonalds in 1968 and then rolled out larger servings in McDonalds restaurants, if you’ve ever been asked if you want a ‘large meal’ with your burger Wallerstein was responsible. This created a whole range of products in restaurants and supermarkets called expandables, from large meals to multi-packs of products.

    A more recent example would be the signature on hotmail.com emails that encouraged whoever received them to get their own email address at hotmail.com. This was effective back when most people had a work or college email address and wanted a home account for personal communications like finding a new job. Gmail took a slightly different approach with an invite scheme that saw early adopters clamouring like they were trying to get in the door of Studio 54 on a Saturday night.

    The original idea of growth hacking is to try a small marketing tactic and refine it based on the feedback that you get. In reality that gets translated into poor thought out showy tactics focused on the short term. The reason for this is that test and learn is done over a short time period and doesn’t incorporate marketing science. The Coinbase advert was a classic example of this.

    Buzz marketing

    Growth hacking is influenced by a number of things. One of which was the concept of ‘scrappiness’ in start-up marketing.

    Startup scrappiness

    During the original dot com boom new online businesses wasted a fantastic amount of money on ineffective advertising. The most iconic example of this would be the pets.com sock pocket advert that featured in the 2000 version of the Super Bowl.

    Car with Yahoos
    Courtesy of Yahoo! Inc. Co founder David Filo is hanging from the rear of the car.

    You saw some businesses like Yahoo! try to do brand building advertising in a more cost effective way. This was known internally at Yahoo! as buzz marketing and in the US, it had its own team.

    Examples of buzz marketing included wrapping employees cars that had been volunteered in the Yahoo! brand. This was listed in the employee handbook as a free ‘perk’ of working at Yahoo!. There were some conditions like you had to keep the wrap on for year and a good behaviour clause.

    The world's first (only?) purple Zamboni

    There were also some sponsorships like the ice machine at the San Jose Sharks stadium and some high traffic billboards. Yahoo! used to have a billboard alongside the 101 freeway going into San Francisco and another in Time Square, New York.

    Our San Francisco billboard

    While the lesson of ‘go for business models that make financial sense’ seems to have been lost as we left the dot.com era further behind. The idea of ‘scrappiness’ stuck. It fitted with the wider concept of ‘struggle culture’ in entrepreneurship.

    In technology, marketing = sales

    On one level, the problem isn’t Coinbase but the technology sector. The truth is that for the most part technology companies don’t do good marketing. My hypotheses around the reasons for this are:

    • Technologists aren’t marketers. For the original technology firms, the products found their own market. Over time a salesforce was introduced and for complex products there might be pre-sales and post sales consultancy. They don’t really know much about marketing science. The sales funnel is the one ‘marketing model’ that managed to make it into Microsoft® PowerPoint® says a lot about the nature of this understanding.
    • To a technologist, every problem looks like a technology challenge. So the answer for great marketing is either in kludges aka hacks, like the Coinbase advert, or algorithmic in nature. And those algorithms are usually based on a poor understanding of marketing featured in the point above
    • Technologists think short term. Brands are transitory if you are looking to be bought out, or are built ‘organically’ in the hands of the victors (Oracle, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, Apple, Amazon, Tencent or Alibaba). So building a brand is an alien concept. Why build a brand in a world when you believe in disrupt, or be disrupted? Contrast that with the FMCG world where brands have considerably longer lives. The Nestlé Kit Kat chocolate bar is 86 years old at the time of writing. Procter & Gamble’s Bold washing powder (laundry detergent) is a spritely 57 years old. Baileys Irish Cream liqueur is 48 years old, as is the Mobil 1 range of synthetic engine oils, oil filters, chassis grease, transmission fluids, and gear lubricants. If we think of technology brands with that kind of longevity its likely to be the incumbent telecoms companies, Fujitsu, Hitach and IBM. At the younger end would be the likes of Verbatim, AMD, Intel, Oracle, Western Digital, Microsoft, Apple, Acer and Atari.
    • Disrupt or be disrupted creates delusion. If you believe in the disrupt or be disrupted manifest destiny of technology you probably believe that your ability to market is better than established brands that are actually marketing organisations

    I would guess that Coinbase marketers would tick at least some of these hypotheses. It probably doesn’t help that organisations who should know better are starting to buy into this ‘disrupt or be disrupted’ model.

    Cost of reach

    So, if you’re a technology company like Coinbase, who believes in disruption and ‘knows’ how to market better than marketers? The simple answer is that while digital has managed to get marketers to use its platforms, it has failed to offer the most competitive cost per reach. To achieve the same goals Coinbase would have had to spend an order of magnitude more on YouTube than TV to reach an equivalent audience.

    Brand building

    Finally the reason why the advert contrasted so sharply with the other content that ran during the Super Bowl was because everyone else focused on brand building rather than on brand activation. The reason why they are going for brand building is that the work will keep paying dividends for years. This is something that digital transformation doesn’t reflect well through its algorithms. The Coinbase approach was the equivalent of a TV ad that said click here.

    More information

    Find a Growth Hacker for Your Startup | Startup Marketing (July 26, 2010)