Ged Carroll

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  • Davis Polk Asia + more things

    Davis Polk Asia

    Davis Polk Asia chair withdraws from Hong Kong security law forum | Financial Times – Guessing that Davis Polk Asia didn’t do a thorough opportunity cost analysis before agreeing to participate in the Hong Kong National Security Law Forum. An alternative hypothesis that I have heard about Davis Polk Asia could be due to being really screwed globally and will ANYTHING for some billings. Even if David Polk Asia really desperate, I can’t imagine that there will be that much upside in the greater China market and maybe some backlash in the law firm’s other international and US domestic offices. The backlash happened as soon as the FT published news of their forthcoming participation. I can also imagine that the subsequent Davis Polk Asia withdrawal will cause blowback with mainland clients and government contacts. The smart play for Davis Polk Asia would have been to decline the place in the first instance. It is even more surprising when David Polk Asia could have looked at Mayer Brown pulling away from representing Hong Kong University last year was a case study in likely outcomes. Given that one would want solid wise heads in the senior staff of a law office rather than status seeking sycophants, the Davis Polk Asia chairman Mr Rogers doesn’t look like a credit to his firm. Discretion might have been the better part of valour in this case.

    Branding

    ‘We Love Winning, But Not At All Costs’: Asics On Offering Athletes Mental Health Aid | The Drum – I was chatting with a contact about the Asics positioning overall that this manifests and its an exceptionally clever reframe around a ‘sound mind in a sound body’ – its very Japanese and yet very now. Its a space that New Balance, Saucony, Newton etc left wide open for them

    The Elizabeth line: Grimshaw’s line-wide Crossrail design – fantastic article on the design language of Crossrail. Its architecture its branding, its product and service design all together in one package

    China

    Shanghai lockdown exposes global supply chain strains | Financial Times – the Port of Los Angeles, for example, is monitoring data from China on energy consumption, traffic patterns and pollution, to understand how busy the country’s factories are so it can prepare for the volumes of cargo to come. “I’m on the phone most evenings with friends . . . in Shanghai telling me what’s happening on the ground,” – interesting how they’re having to rely on abstract data

    As Q1 results disappoint, should brands look beyond China? | Advertising | Campaign Asia – brands were able to offset these losses thanks to the strength in North America and Europe. Aeffe, the parent company of Mochino, nearly tripled its net income in the three month period, as Europe (which represents almost one-third of its total revenue) jumped 37.5% thanks to Germany and the UK. Tapestry shares even climbed on May 12 after it posted that sales in North America rose 22% year-on-year, fully offsetting mid-teens decline in China. These two regions will be crucial as China slowly recovers from its worst Covid wave since 2020. Although the mainland is on track to become the world’s largest luxury market by 2025, the US is still in top spot, accounting for 31% of the global market (China accounts for 21%). As such, it is important for brands to continue building traction in North America and Europe to cushion against near-term losses in Asia

    China Brief: Expanding State Power Still Tops Xi Jinping’s Agenda – The published speech shows how much of Xi’s economic thinking is about control, tied to what he sees as a necessary expansion of government power. The speech frames China’s problems as coming down to the “reckless expansion of capital,” or private industry, which can only be curbed by expanding the CCP’s power. That idea relates to one of Xi’s favorite terms from last year: “common prosperity,” achieved via the redistribution of wealth. Publishing the 2021 speech now may be an attempt to revitalize that language. Other Chinese officials, such as Premier Li Keqiang, are focused primarily on addressing economic issues, but party power still tops Xi’s agenda. One part of the speech may seem incompatible with its profession of socialist values: how conservative it sounds about welfare. Xi explicitly states that “common prosperity” isn’t welfare. His words also suggest a fear of overpromising what the government can deliver, but they also echo an idea I’ve heard from rich and powerful people in China—that people living in democracies never vote to cut welfare benefits because the public is lazy and entitled

    Consumer behaviour

    “Macho pink” menswear takes over in China | Vogue Business – “Macho pink” can be seen as a kind of “rebellion”, however, this rebellion currently remains limited to product categories considered mainstream for men, such as e-sports, sneakers and electronics. As male consumers in China put more emphasis on self-expression, this is validated to some extent by pink goods. – this reminds me of the bold neon colours of 1980s skiwear brands like Nevica. More on the social impact here: Millennial Pink Begone, Enter the Age of Hot Pink Fury | High Sobriety 

    Study: games and video-watching correlate with kids getting smarter, social media a wash | Boing Boing

    Taking the pulse of the US consumer | McKinsey and more here from GlobalWebIndex: How The Cost Of Living Crisis Is Affecting Consumer Spending | GWI 

    Culture

    Cyberpunk: Edgerunners Anime Comes to Netflix Geeked Week

    Liberals Should Be Worried About the Conservative Comedy Scene – POLITICO – Conservative humorists aren’t merely catching up to their liberal counterparts in terms of reach and popularity. They’ve already caught them — and, in some cases, surpassed them, even as the liberal mainstream has continued to write conservative comedy off as a contradiction in terms. “[Liberals] are ceding ideological territory in the culture wars to the right via comedy,” Marx told me, noting that once-beloved liberal comedians like Stewart are struggling to find their footing in the treacherous landscape of post-Trump humor. “This thing that we thought we have owned for the last 20 years has been leaking, and the borders are slowly getting shifted.”

    Design

    Bamboo scaffolding: Why does Hong Kong still use it in construction? | Goldthread 

    Economics

    Greedflation, gouging and price controls – by Noah Smith 

    Advertising percentage of GDP – The Creative Industries 

    Americans Don’t Miss Manufacturing — They Miss Unions | FiveThirtyEight 

    Russia Is Losing Access to Imports – by Matthew C. Klein 

    Biden’s China strategy cannot work with weapons alone | Financial Times 

    Subprime Car Loan, Lease Defaults Hit All-Time High in February | Jalopnik – this has been a long time coming

    Joe Biden waters down Indo-Pacific Economic Framework to win more support | Financial Times 

    Energy

    Fraunhofer sketches roadmap for solid-state battery c… eeNews Automotive 

    Toyota further expands hydrogen ecosystem – eeNews Automotive – Europe needs to increase its commitment to a hydrogen economy

    Ethics

    Company Reviews on Glassdoor: Petty Complaints or Signs of Potential Misconduct? – HBS Working Knowledge – Whether it’s Theranos and its fraudulent blood testing technology, Wells Fargo and its fake financial accounts, or Volkswagen and its bogus emissions data, a whistleblower eventually comes forward to expose the behavior, and executives are held accountable. “But what you start to realize is that the problems that have been uncovered have been going on for a very long time,” says Dennis Campbell, a professor of business administration at Harvard Business School. Far from being just a few bad apples, most business improprieties occur within a widespread culture of bad behavior—or at least, a lot of people looking the other way as misconduct is taking place, he says.

    Ideas

    The i-Frame and the s-Frame: How Focusing on Individual-Level Solutions Has Led Behavioral Public Policy Astray by Nick Chater, George Loewenstein :: SSRN  – worthwhile reading in concert with this – What nudge theory got wrong | Financial Times 

    Putin plays his asshole card | I, Cringely – interesting post on the million plus Ukrainian hostage situation in Russia

    Japan

    Japan’s living standards are too low – by Noah Smith 

    Korea

    Depression on the Rise Among Young Men – The Chosun Ilbo 

    Koreans Think AI Is the Future – The Chosun Ilbo – 1/ artificial intelligence 2/ robotics 3/ future mobility 4/ hydrogen fuel 5/ energy 6/ biotechnology 7/ aerospace 8/ new materials 9/ batteries 10/ semiconductors – skews to Korea’s current strengths in semiconductors, hydrogen fuel cells and robotics

    Luxury

    LVMH-owned watchmaker Tag Heuer to accept crypto payments | Vogue Business – terrible timing given the bear market in crypto at the moment. Its also part of the odder financial aspects happening in the watch sector. From companies going vertical into the pre-owned marketplace to Breitling adopting a car lease type model for watches

    Marketing

    Marketers to face challenges as the world of internet enters into a new Cookie-less phase; What measures has the advertising industry taken? / Digital Information World – looking at this data SMS is very undervalued as people are more likely to keep their mobile number while social and email are more transitory

    Marketers, investing in market research is not superfluous – there is the big initial deep dive that happens when a new CMO arrives or a new product or market is contemplated. Second, there is the lesser but more common annual research that updates the organisation on the market, its segments and associated behaviour that feeds annual market planning. Finally, there is the more occasional inquiry into a specific micro issue that springs up. A pricing problem, a sudden reduction in market share or some other occasional issue that demands customer insight to guide management action

    How chaotic accounting engulfed Sir Martin Sorrell’s S4 Capital empire | Business | The Sunday Times 

    Materials

    World’s first commercial 200mm VCSEL wafer ships – eeNews Europe 

    Media

    Six Shifts Changing the Future of Media | Bain & Company 

    Online

    Hong Kong Considers Blocking Telegram Messaging App, Local Paper Says – Bloomberg – Hong Kong authorities are deliberating whether to curtail public access to the messaging service Telegram, the Sing Tao Daily reported, potentially reviving fears the former British colony is moving closer toward Beijing-style internet controls. The Privacy Commissioner for Personal Data is considering invoking regulations for the first time to restrict access to a platform it found to be rampant with doxxing, the local newspaper reported Tuesday. The widespread doxxing — or online exposure of sensitive and personal data — was aimed at government officials as well as citizens, the newspaper said, citing unidentified people.

    Security

    Civitas: Institute for the Study of Civil Society China’s presence in NHS supply chains

    Iraq balks at greater Chinese control of its oilfields | Reuters 

    Wireless eavesdroppers can hack 6G signal with DIY me… Smart2.0 

    Chinese Hackers Tried to Steal Russian Defense Data, Report Says – The New York Times – The emails landed on March 23 in the inboxes of scientists and engineers at several of Russia’s military research and development institutes, purportedly sent by Russia’s Ministry of Health. They carried a subject line that offered seemingly tantalizing information about a “list of persons under U.S. sanctions for invading Ukraine.” But the emails were actually sent by state-sponsored hackers in China seeking to entice their Russian targets to download and open a document with malware, according to a new report to be released Thursday by the Israeli-American cybersecurity firm Check Point… The Chinese campaign targeted Russian institutes that research airborne satellite communications, radar and electronic warfare

    Taiwan

    EU to upgrade trade ties with Taiwan as China warns Brussels ‘not to gamble on this issue’ | South China Morning Post 

    Telecoms

    EETimes – Lockheed Counts on Intel, Nvidia to Connect Defense Systems 

    Web of no web

    BujiBui makes 3D digital twins accessible anywhere | DigiTimes 

    P&G is Designing for the Future: How the Metaverse is Changing Consumer Engagement 

    Wireless

    South Korea to start testing 5G-V2X projects in 2Q23 

  • Special branch & other stuff

    I think my interest in this vintage TV series Special Branch comes from a couple of places:

    • Sharing Mike Herron’s subversive books, Apple TV adaption and audio books with friends and my Dad
    • Sharing my love of John LeCarre with friends during lockdown

    Special Branch was before my life time. The episodes start very much in the vein of a Le Carre or Len Deighton-type story. Later episodes were more human interest focused including an investigation of a religious cult. However one episode touches on the often overlooked post-war history of the British security services and military combatting Cypriot desire for independence.

    Those with a keen eye will notice Bernard Hepton who played Toby Esterhase in the BBC TV adaptation of Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy & Smiley’s People playing a Soviet-era Ukrainian colonel in this episode.

    You can see more episodes of Special Branch on YouTube here.

    Genesis on luxury

    This is an interesting event that Genesis took part in for marketing purposes. The tone of voice on the session was more about the ‘business of luxury’ rather than encouraging luxury consumption. It’s trying in a way that Lexus didn’t need to. Lexus let their engineering do the talking, by comparison luxury and fashion is something that Mercedes and BMW have increasingly lent into.

    There is also no focus on sport in the way that BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Audi, Infiniti and Lexus have had.

    Lights and shadows

    A lovely collection of video footage showing light and shadow views in Japan. A good deal of it is the the same locations shot at different times of the day. There is some b-roll, TV and film footage mixed in for good measure.

    Mysterious circles in the Sahara

    My guess when I first saw this was oil exploration. I had worked in the oil industry before I went to university and heard the upstream and exploration adventures of older colleagues. This documentary is a fascinating journey to find out the truth and the limits of the internet and assumptions about modern industry practices not being a good guide of past practices. Without any further introduction I will leave you to this mystery of the Algerian desert.

    Calculus on Pornhub

    Taiwanese mathematics tutor puts calculus lessons on Pornhub. Attracts audience with attractive female assistants who clean the board. His rationale of taking his content to a less crowded platform can’t be faulted though.

  • Metaverse discussion paper

    I have put together a metaverse discussion paper. This post is the executive summary of the metaverse discussion paper. The full paper has much more context including context on the history of the metaverse, the current reality and separating out the hype.

    This originally started as a discussion paper drafted during quiet moments at work. Client work got in the way developing it further. I didn’t have time to complete writing the metaverse discussion paper beyond an outline and supporting research.  

    A good deal of my work is to do with brand experience. So, it made sense for me to dig in and find out more about the metaverse from the perspective of what it means to brands. I structured my approach in understanding the metaverse, in terms of: 

    • What is currently being said 
    • The past developments leading up to the metaverse
    • Possible futures

    How to use the metaverse discussion paper

    This document contains a large amount of content. I would advise that you read the executive summary and everything else you can dive into as your muse or boredom strikes you. 

    The link to the full metaverse discussion paper is at the bottom of the post. I am giving it away for free under a Creative Commons Attribution – No Derivatives licence.

    Metaverse Final
    Available for free download at the bottom of the post.

    Executive summary

    The current state of the metaverse and the technology sectors attitude to it can be best understood through the words of a mid-20th century political thinker Ivan Chtcheglov. Chtcheglov reflected on an illusory imagined construction.

    And you, forgotten, your memories ravaged by all the consternations of two hemispheres, stranded in the Red Cellars of Pali-Kao, without music and without geography, no longer setting out for the hacienda where the roots think of the child and where the wine is finished off with fables from an old almanac. That’s all over. You’ll never see the hacienda. It doesn’t exist.

    The hacienda must be built.[1]

    What became apparent as I researched for this document was how companies were trying to solve problems that were a small part of what will be needed for a metaverse. This is because the metaverse as envisaged in science fiction and technology as ‘thought leadership’ will require a wide range of technology problems to be solved. For instance, the current technologists haven’t been able to surpass the vivid experiences created in mid-to-late 20th century cinemas and theme parks. 

    Broadly the technology challenges would be characterised as:

    • Scalability 
    • Believable and immersive
    • Open and portable in nature from a technology perspective
    • Decentralized 
    • Traversable – the ability to ‘travel’ around and between worlds
    • Able to conduct commerce and exchange
    • Social
    • Secure and trusted

    Many companies have deep expertise in some parts of the metaverse problem. Some work builds on decades of work in areas such as virtual reality and haptic technology. But these areas haven’t progressed with the kind of pace one would expect from Moore’s Law.[2] Technologists are trying to work out how existing technologies, like distributed databases, games physics engines and realistic computer rendering could be used to solve some of the problems needed to be addressed to build a future metaverse. 

    What we saw with the web, but are not seeing with the metaverse at the moment is collaboration. There isn’t open collaborative work towards a maturing standards environment necessary for interoperability as well as a solid direction to help define future metaverse technologies. The lack of collaboration makes it hard to predict, if or when we would be likely to see a metaverse. We can speculate how the future supporting technologies for the metaverse might net out based on heuristics like Moore’s Law or Metcalfe’s Law[3].[4] It would be impossible to speculate on the realpolitik required to build the ‘metaverse’ and what would drive its universal adoption over time. 

    But that isn’t stopping companies thinking about how the metaverse work with their brands. Governments are also giving a lot of thought to the coming metaverse including:

    • The provision of services in a ‘metaverse’ environment
    • How to manage market competition
    • Understanding the potential of the metaverse to foment social disturbances and imperil security 

    Since the metaverse, doesn’t currently exist as envisaged, it makes sense to look for analogues. These analogues include social trends in highly evolved technology markets and precursor technologies such as gaming and VR. The goal of the research would be to try and understand what it might look like when digital immersive experiences become commonplace.   

    Consultants like Forrester Research[5] and McKinsey are recommending that organisations get involved with precursors to learn, but also temper their expectations. There is a limitation to this approach, technology and culture evolve with use. Scale changes things further. Norms that were established when platforms have 100,000s of users evolve or fade away when the user number goes to 100s of millions or even billions. 

    One of the ways that this research happens is through a resurgence of technologist and marketer interest in virtual worlds like Roblox and AltspaceVR. These virtual worlds allow experimentation to discover what works (and what doesn’t) far in advance of the future metaverse. Deloitte Consulting considered that one of the three business model scenarios for the metaverse was what they termed a ‘Low Orbit’ where the metaverse like VR, continues to be used for niche rather than general purpose uses. The current virtual worlds lean more towards the ‘Low Orbit’ model. The current belief[6] that games are the metaverse falls firmly into the ‘Low Orbit’ model. 

    Assuming for a moment that businesses manage to retain and build on the body of knowledge they get through this experimentation they will hopefully answer questions like:

    • Using VR early adopters as a proxy for metaverse users, what works from a marketing effectiveness perspective, in driving brand awareness and brand activation?
    • How effective are virtual world experiences in terms of brand awareness and brand activation? How does it benchmark against web-based media, mobile apps, out of home (OOH), cinema and broadcast media like connected and conventional television? 
    • What are the dos and don’ts acquired through experimentation in virtual worlds from user experience design perspective for brands?
    • How would a virtual world assist in digital consumer testing and virtual crowdsourcing before committing to manufacture an item at scale? What are the strengths and limitations in this approach?
    • What tactics are drive brand awareness in a virtual world in an effective manner?
    • When do experiences get old and have to be refreshed? 
    • How can the brand be a better citizen in the virtual world? How much interaction is required with ‘real’ brand ambassadors?

    Some of the platforms like Meta’s Horizon Worlds and Animoca Brands’ The Sandbox hope to be the metaverse. They desire to incorporate the consumers entire perceived metaverse. An analogue to the business models of Horizon Worlds or The Sandbox would be walled garden ‘super apps’ WeChat and the Taobao that currently represent most of the consumer mobile web in China today. Or the walled garden ‘desktop web’ experience[7] of AOL[8] in pre-broadband America. Deloitte Consulting outlined this approach as one of their likely business model scenarios of the metaverse. They called it a ‘Double Star’. 

    Platforms face a big challenge; consumer expectations are well over a decade ahead of what the technology can actually deliver. 

    Even if the technology is successful, the challenge for brands, walled garden and open metaverse platforms are many. Here are two of the biggest challenges to get started:

    • How do brands and platforms show that sufficient effort has been done to keep users safe? This isn’t only about filtering content, but filtering behaviour. Will post-censure of bad behaviour be sufficient? Will the environment be sufficiently safe for brands to participate and advertise? 

    In a world of ESG[9] considerations, would an energy intensive virtual pleasure palace be too much for investors or purpose-driven brand owners like BlackRock, Proctor & Gamble or Unilever?

    [1] Chtcheglov, I.V. (1953) Formulaire pour un urbanisme nouveau. France – http://www.bopsecrets.org/SI/Chtcheglov.htm

    [2] Gregersen, E. (July 21, 2011) Moore’s Law. United States: Encyclopaedia Britannica – https://www.britannica.com/technology/Moores-law

    [3]  Metcalfe, R. (August 18, 2006) Guest Blogger Bob Metcalfe: Metcalfe’s Law Recurses Down the Long Tail of Social Networks. United States: VCMike via wordpress.com – https://vcmike.wordpress.com/2006/08/18/metcalfe-social-networks/

    [4] Shapiro, C. and Varian, H.R. (1999). Information Rules. United States: Harvard Business Press

    [5] Proulx, M., Ask, J., Bennett, M., Gownder, J.P., & Truog, D. (March 29, 2022) There Is No Metaverse Today, But Be Prepared. United States: Forrester Research – https://www.forrester.com/blogs/there-is-no-metaverse-today-but-be-prepared/

    [6] Whatley, J. (May 17, 2022) The metaverse doesn’t exist! You’re talking about gaming. United Kingdom: The Drum – https://www.thedrum.com/opinion/2022/05/17/the-metaverse-doesn-t-exist-you-re-talking-about-gaming

    [7] (September 4, 2000) AOL’s ‘Walled Garden’. United States: The Wall Street Journal – https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB968104011203980910?reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

    [8] America Online

    [9] Environmental, Social and Governance criteria. Standards used by socially conscious investors as a way to filter investment decisions. More here – https://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/environmental-social-and-governance-esg-criteria.asp

    Click here. Available for free: Metaverse – Reality, Hype & Futures

    I have more on technologies that blur the line between online and offline here.

  • Bongbong Marcos + more things

    Bongbong Marcos

    Bongbong Marcos aka Ferdinand Romualdez Marcos Jr is the son of former Filipino president Ferdinand Marcos. The Asia Society did a really good talk on the election which explains what got Bongbong Marcos elected as president of the Philippines. Yes there was a lot of misinformation and sketchy tactics by the Bongbong Marcos campaign, but there is more going on.

    Marcos Fiesta-20150912-090-IM0P1343

    Much of the issue seems to be that Marcos is viewed as standing against local Filipino dynasties that have most of the economic power in the country. I found this particularly interesting as Bongbong Marcos and his running mate Sara Duterte are both from dynasty families.

    Marcos’ mother Imelda had a dad who as a lawyer, an uncle who was a supreme court judge, a cousin who was in the lower house of parliament and her brother was a provincial governor. On his father’s side, Bongbong’s grandfather was a lawyer and politician, and the mother was a school teacher. While both of Bongbong’s parents had known poverty, they could rely on a strong powerful network of family ties to help get them good jobs. Ferdinand Marcos even managed to get away with murder in 1939.

    Bongbong Marcos is supposed to be stuffing people he can trust through blood ties into key government and political positions such as speaker of the house and ministerial roles.

    Opposition party strategy

    The Marcos campaign managed to play on nostalgia for older voters and addressed young voters through TikTok. The opposition party strategy failed in online marketing. Misinformation was an aggravating factor.

    Corrosion of liberal democracy

    The average Filipino voter doesn’t feel invested in democracy in the same way that the middle class would be. 7 out of 10 surveyed by Pew wouldn’t mind an authoritarian leader like Bongbong Marcos – so Marcos was pushing against an open door. The middle classes are looking for ‘order and discipline’ rather than dysfunction. They think that economic success and freedom are mutually exclusive. They look to the United Arab Emirates and Singapore as exemplars. There are similarities with middle income countries like Modi in India, Erdoğan in Turkey, Urban in Hungary and Bolsonaro in Brazil.

    From an economic perspective what does Bongbong Marcos mean? Noah Smith made their most optimistic take on the economics of the Philippines Can the Philippines sustain its growth? – by Noah Smith. An authoritarian Bongbong Marcos government might see the departure of foreign companies who have been responsible for powering the past two decades of economic growth in the Philippines. The only reason why you might not see a foreign multi-national company exit would be ‘de-Chinaisation’ of global supply chains.  

    Business

    BMW and Audi suspend shipments by train to China | Financial Times – that takes out the belt out of the belt and road initiative

    China

    ARM China staff post open letter pledging loyalty to … eeNews Analog – “The ARM Technology team will adhere to the leadership of Allen Wu, unswervingly follow the path of independent and self-improvement development, and work together to build ARM Technology into a great Chinese technology company!” – if this isn’t a warning for investors in China I don’t know what is – Arm China’s renegade chief makes his last stand | Financial Times 

    China’s secret property empire | The Spectator 

    China’s exporters battered by lockdowns and global inflation | Financial Times 

    China Orders Government, State Firms to Replace Foreign Computers – Bloomberg 

    COSCO: China’s shipping giant expands its global influence – Nikkei Asia – interesting that COSCO is the one shipper still going to Russia

    Siemens to discontinue business in Russia – eeNews Europe – Siemens stopped all new business with and international deliveries to Russia and Belarus. The comprehensive international sanctions and the current and potential countermeasures are affecting the company’s business activities in Russia – especially its railway service and maintenance business. For companies that are mainly active in B2B business, the decision to completely exit a region is more difficult to make than for companies that sell consumer goods. The reason: contracts for the maintenance of industrial plants and trains are concluded for many years, sometimes decades – this is an opportunity for Chinese railway businesses

    Firms as Revenue Safety Nets: Political Connections and Returns to the Chinese State | The China Quarterly | Cambridge Core – restructured state-owned enterprises (SOEs) with political connections pay more tax than their assessed amount, independent of profits, in exchange for more preferential access to key inputs and policy opportunities controlled by the state. Examining taxes rather than profits also offers a new interpretation for why China continues to favour its remaining SOEs even when they are less profitable – it also explains why apparently inefficient SOEs get so many bank loans from state owned banks

    Consumer behaviour

    Older workers in higher-paid industries are joining the Great Resignation – Vox – I’d like to see more data on this. Is it a choice for them and will it be changed by higher inflation?

    Does Aging Make You More Susceptible to Fake News? | Technology Networks – this fit in with findings by Kings College London on the resisting as a younger fake-news believing set of people

    People trust AI fake faces more than real ones, research suggests 

    Why Is Y2K Style Still Happening?! An Analysis of a Wild Trend | High Snobriety 

    California’s demography is at odds with the old California Dream | The Economist – The population fell to 39.2m in the year to January 2022, 400,000 lower than in 2020 (see chart). In 1990, the number of Californians had been rising by a robust 2.5% a year. The biggest contribution to the decline came from migration. In 2021, the net change (people moving out of state minus those moving in) was twice as large as the number of covid deaths and four times the population’s natural change (the excess of deaths over births). Big cities have been hit hardest; the population of Los Angeles County has fallen for the past four years. Even if these declines were no worse than average—and national demographic trends are slowing, too—they might seem worse in a state where, as its governor once said, “the future happens here first”. In fact California’s demography is worse than average. The state’s total fertility rate (tfr, an estimate of the number of children women will bear over their lifetimes) fell from 2.2 in 2006 to 1.5 in 2020, more than in America as a whole, where the fall was from 2.1 to 1.6.

    Culture

    How Graffiti Became Gentrified | The New Republic 

    Economics

    How China-backed projects made Sri Lanka’s economic meltdown worse | South China Morning Post 

    Energy

    VW sells out of electric cars in Europe and US | Financial Times 

    Buffett-backed BYD’s shares drop after launch of pollution probe | Financial Times – is it BYD or is it something else?

    Finance

    Beijing orders ‘stress test’ as fears of Russia-style sanctions mount | China | The Guardian 

    Hong Kong

    Will Hong Kong reopen for business under new leader Lee? Yahoo! News – not open for business basically

    Arrest of Cardinal Zen send chills through Hong Kong’s Catholic church | Financial Times – a diocesan administrator tendered their resignation over a posting on the “Catholic Way” Facebook page on April 27. The post, which was quickly deleted, summarised a television interview in which a local priest accused China of attempting to control religion in Hong Kong. The diocese said the administrator had resigned of their own accord. The police investigation of the 612 Humanitarian Relief Fund, of which Zen was a trustee and which supported pro-democracy protesters, could also have implications for Hong Kong’s legal system. Police said on Thursday that they had complained to the Bar Association and Law Society about alleged misconduct by unnamed lawyers who took on the fund’s cases

    Hongkongers in Britain | 英國港僑協會 – great resource for Hong Kongers moving to the UK

    Ideas

    Talking about white privilege online can backfire – Futurity – The relationship between question language and the content of the responses was mediated by their support or opposition to renaming buildings. This suggests that, rather than causing people to think differently about the world, the term white privilege causes an emotional reaction which then affects their response, Quarles says. Inclusive ways of speaking about race online, such as the term “racial inequality,” are more likely to create a sense of shared purpose, he says. Policymakers who want to promote racial equity should consider how their language can either unite people or alienate potential allies, he says. – but this doesn’t understand that white privilege as a term comes from left-wing thinking and isn’t designed for dialogue. The emotional reaction is elicited by design as part of the narrative of ideological struggle. Either the party is worn down to the ideology or they are part of the enemy, which is then followed to its conclusion in Stalinism

    Innovation

    AMD to roll out 5nm processors as early as September 

    State of Venture Q1’22 Report – CB Insights Research – unsurprisingly, higher interest rates have a negative effect on VC funding of businesses and a slight decline in the number of new unicorns being minted

    Recovery for Bosch as it warns of slowdown – eeNews Europe – It’s worth taking a closer look at how the war affects climate action. My assessment is nuanced: in the short term, the acute conflict will slow progress in reducing carbon emissions, but in the long term, it will accelerate the technological transformation in Europe – Bosch also particularly keen on green hydrogen

    Could digital printing ease supply chain disruptions? | Vogue Business 

    IBM aims for 4000 qubit quantum computer – eeNews Europe 

    EETimes – A Post-Moore’s Law World 

    EETimes – As Classic Moore’s Law Dims, Heterogeneous Integration Steps Into the Limelight 

    Japan

    Japan passes law aimed at China guarding economic security, technology, supply chains | South China Morning Post 

    The pervasive succession crisis threatening Japan’s economy | Financial Times 

    Korea

    ‘Fashion has no age’: the stylish senior citizens of Seoul | South Korea | The Guardian 

    Luxury

    Lex in depth: why the luxury market needs to hedge against China | Financial Times – Customers at the exclusive Shinsegae department store in the Gangnam district of Seoul prefer to display their wealth discreetly. But their high spending was exposed to the wider world when it revealed annual sales had topped $2bn in 2021 — the highest turnover for a single store in the world. It outpaced even Harrods in London, which before the coronavirus pandemic had long held the world’s top spot

    Materials

    Why Is Plastic Bad for the Environment? This New Material Will Explain | Architectural Digest 

    Media

    Sony rejects China’s censorship request in ‘Spiderman’ | New York Post 

    Online

    Inside TikTok’s Explosive Growth – by Alex Kantrowitz 

    Security

    Quantum computers: Encryption technique could stop scammers from faking their location | New Scientist 

    Because of Ukraine, America’s arsenal of democracy is depleting | The Economist – challenges in supply chain and manufacturing

    ICE ‘now operates as a domestic surveillance agency,’ think tank says | Engadget 

    EU plans to require backdoor to encrypted messages for child protection | AppleInsider – “When executing the detection order, providers should take all available safeguard measures to ensure that the technologies employed by them cannot be used by them or their employees for purposes other than compliance with this Regulation,” says the proposal, “nor by third parties, and thus to avoid undermining the security and confidentiality of the communications of users.” – congratulations EU you’ve just empowered authoritarian regimes and risked the lives of millions elsewhere

    Technology

    RISC-V chip designed with open source tools – eeNews Europe – ARM should be worried

    Web of no web

    Apple WebXR: Web-based AR doesn’t work on iPhones – Protocol 

    Wireless

    Wi-Fi 7 home mesh routers aim to hit 33Gbps | Ars Technica 

  • Suzume no Tojimari & more stuff

    Suzume no Tojimari is the latest anime from Makoto Shinkai. Suzume no Tojimari seems to share the same universe as some of Shinkai-san’s other films: Your Name and Weathering with You. Suzume no Tojimari goes from a rural town in the South, through the modern ruins that punctuate modern Japan.

    Everyday footage of Japan in the 1990s

    One of the great things about Japan being at the forefront of high-definition video standards is that you get a good deal of high quality footage of what everyday looked like in the 1980s and 1990s covering the bubble era and the immediate aftermath.

    This seems to be footage for a demonstration recording, that I presume was commissioned by Sony. (Mainly because none of the other consumer electronics manufacturers would feature the Sony buildings front and centre in the footage of the opening shot). I suspect that the shots might be relatively short due to storage considerations on the cameras being used.

    By contrast, here is a modern constant stream of street life in present day Tokyo, Japan.

    https://youtu.be/S_bxc_AFUZU

    Original jungle samples

    I have been fascinated by the YouTube channel original jungle samples for a while. They track down the constituent samples that made up many drum and bass tracks, putting the original sources up against their use so you can see how they were transformed. This one profiling M-Beat is a great example of the work that they do.

    Obesity science

    BBC’s current affairs programme Panorama scratched the surface on the public health challenge of obesity. I know a fair bit about the subject area as I have been working on a global launch for Novo Nordisk’s obesity franchise. What quickly becomes apparent from the programme is the misalignment between scientific understanding of obesity as a complex chronic condition, current treatment techniques and government policy.

    Song Lim Shoemaking

    I am a big fan of videos that show how something is made. This is a video of how hiking boots are made as a bespoke process by Song Lim Shoemaking.

    Creativity. Its what makes us

    I am a big fan of going to see exhibitions and museums. It refreshes me and helps me have a clean slate in terms of thinking. It is interesting to see the V&A lean into this with a two minute film to get creatives back into museum visits.

    Steroids as a popular drug

    Vice digs into why steroids has become popular. It comes back to visions of modern masculinity and self image. Maybe because I came up in Liverpool during the late 1980s and early 1990s steroids were a common thing back then, rather than the more recent development that Vice seems to think that it is.