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  • The Exponential Era by Espindola & Wright

    The Exponential Era is a business strategy book published by the IEEE Press as part of its series on technology, innovation and leadership. David Espindola and Michael Wright work at Intercepting Horizons and advise at the University of Minnesota.

    The book is a concise 182 pages including its index. It has a satisfying hard cover about the height and width of a paperback book. The book proportions reminded of many of the books that we used to have my secondary school’s library. It felt right in my hand. Its a small thing, but it matters.

    The exponential era

    The secondary school analogy goes further; the book summarises knowledge and makes it relatively easily digestible.

    The Exponential Era includes:

    • The threat of platforms and their ability to disrupt market sectors
    • Why people find it hard to grasp the change brought about by the future
    • Megatrends with the kind of utopian tone that reminded me of Alvin Toffler, George Gilder and John Naisbitt
    • Horizon monitoring
    • Agile approach to development
    • Test and learn
    • Feedback based strategic decisions which relies extensively on the technology sector’s fetishisation of John Boyd’s OODA model
    • The Innovator’s Dilemma
    • Future business ethics

    The book consolidates the kind of reading that people in technology and marketing would likely have read anyway. Chances are if you’ve already read books like Saving Big Blue, Measure What Matters, The Lean Startup and Zero to One, then The Exponential Era isn’t written for you.

    Who should read this book?

    Instead this book seems to be an increasingly diminished audience. A company too small for it’s management to have been lectured on disruption by McKinsey, Bain, BCG or Accenture. But still large enough to be concerned. Like McKinsey et al Espindola and Wright are looking to create disruption fear and sell their SPX methodology to re-engineer their business. I would have thought the c suite in most businesses would have at least done enough reading to have a high level understanding of the content in the book.

    The book’s relentless utopian optimism reminded me a lot of business works from the 1970s to the dot com era. I think that The Exponential Era will be of most use to junior people at the start of their career looking for a primer rather than its intended audience.

  • Harmony Korine & things that made last week

    Film director Harmony Korine has shot a number of spots for convenience store 7-Eleven. If Korine’s name sounds familiar he is most famous for writing Kids and directing the dystopian 1997 movie Gummo – that paints an unflattering picture of midwest America. Much of the rest of his work has been making music videos and brand movies for luxury fashion houses Gucci & Dior.

    In his posts for 7-Eleven Harmony Korine riffs off the American Graffiti vibes of the convenience stores with parking around them and combined that with sub cultures on YouTube. Most notably the Japanese dancing rockabilly gangs of Yoyogi Park, Tokyo. (More Japan related content here.)

    https://youtu.be/hBCf83SA9j4

    Another video riffs on the recently raised profile of African American culture in skating rinks following the documentary United Skates.

    https://youtu.be/kEOzBqOjWGU

    If you had caught the The Lord of The Rings bug before the Peter Jackson movie adaption, you would be familiar to with two things. The first was the Ralph Bakshi animated adaptation, which unfortunately didn’t see its second part made due to faults mostly on the side of United Artists. The second would be Brian Sibley’s radio adaptation for the BBC, that still remains in publication as a CD audio book. Sibley did this fantastic interview on the the making of the radio drama and the reaction to it. Back in 1981, The Lord of The Rings adaptation had been destination radio, with listeners being sure to tune in to each episode.

    Really interesting interview with plus size influencer Saucye West. It highlights a new economy in plain sight. It is also interesting how the the body positive movement has bifurcated along racial lines, partly due to body shape. The business aspect of it is really interesting. She is an influencer and also advises brands on size 26+ products. There is the discussion about the lack of brand purpose in plus size clothings.

  • PostScript + more things

    PostScript

    Adobe is dropping PostScript Type 1 font support. Be prepared for the change – huge move, given the amount of time that PostScript had been at the centre of design and print. There must be brands out there still using Type 1 fonts for standard print design work that haven’t changed style in 30 years beyond a logo tweak. Without PostScript fonts you couldn’t have had the laser printer or modern design software tools

    Business

    Amazon Exploding Hoverboard Case Could Forever Change Company – BloombergLast month, a California appeals court ruled that Amazon can be held liable, even though the seller stored and shipped the device itself. The decision sent shockwaves through the e-commerce world. Though it will probably be appealed again, the ruling raises the possibility that Amazon might have to exert more control over the activity on its own website. “Courts are rejecting the internet exceptionalism idea when it comes to a company like Amazon,” Agnieszka McPeak, a Gonzaga University professor, told Bloomberg Law. – It could also have implications for companies like Shopify

    Sennheiser to spin out its consumer audio business | EE News Europe – AKG got sold off by the family, Sennheiser is selling off its iconic headphone business. This leaves only Beyerdynamic – Sennheiser sells auido business to hearing aid maker | EE Times Europe 

    South Korea’s Kakao to buy two U.S. storytelling apps for $950 million | Reuters

    Why SoftBank’s THG deal has more questions than answers | Financial TimesWhat exactly the Ingenuity business does is something of a riddle: chief executive Matthew Moulding described it as a “social media influencer platform” but it also handles the prosaic business of logistics and translations for third parties launching in new markets – I don’t get The Hut Group (THG), maybe they’re bad about telling their story?

    Luxury

    Why Victoria’s Secret Body Positivity Spin Won’t Work in China | Jing DailyVictoria’s Secret’s has a long history of glamorous supermodel perfection, therefore this choice is seen as inauthentic for the Chinese consumer and has left many citizens bewildered. Global brands need a localized approach in China, but one that resonates convincingly with the company – on Victoria’s Secret trying be more inclusive and body positive

    Technology

    EVs Will Drive A Lithium Supply Crunch – IEEE Spectrum – not new news, but interesting that it is being highlighted by electrical engineers now just as many electric cars are coming to market. More lithium related content here

    Web of no web

    Northrop Breaks Into DARPA’s Blackjack « Breaking Defense – Defense industry news, analysis and commentarysoftware-defined Positioning, Navigation and Timing (PNT) technology will offer military users an agile new signal from low Earth orbit (LEO) that is not dependent on existing satellite navigation systems – it could be interesting to see what new services can be built on this eventually

  • Bullwhip effect aka Forrester effect

    Bullwhip effect

    I came across the bullwhip effect as a descriptor recently in discussions around the global chip shortage. Bullwhip effect is a concept that is well known in supply chain circles.

    The bullwhip effect is also known as the Forrester effect. Disruption ripples back from the retailer, through the wholesaler, manufacturer, on to their suppliers and so on.

    The usual causes for the effect are:

    • Demand forecast updating – this might be where a company might want to change their product mix to match consumer demand, if a product is very successful or grossly underperforms
    • Order batching – where members of the supply chain round up, or round down the quantity of orders. This happens with the periodic memory gluts or shortages affecting the technology sector
    • Price fluctuations – price discounts can encourage non-linear increases in purchases as it becomes worthwhile for customers to stock up, hedging against increased prices down the line. Oil reserves would be a classic example of this phenomenon
    • Rationing and gaming – buyers and sellers delivering over or under their order quantities. An example of this would be the actions of Enron in US electricity markets. This could be used in a positive way to promote changing the supply chain like renewable sources of electricity generation
    My, what a big holster you have.

    What caused the global chip shortage that is driving the bullwhip effect?

    There were three causes to the global chip shortage

    1. Partial shutdown – The semiconductor industry went through a partial shutdown because of the COVID-19 epidemic. This meant that there was a smaller supply of chips.
    2. Unusual increase in demand – Home working drove an increase in demand: increased sales in PCs, wi-fi routers, external hard drives, mice, keyboards, printers and so on. There was also a corresponding increase in home entertainment as consumers upgraded smart TVs, Apple and Roku set top boxes. This all coincided with the launch of the next generation of gaming consoles by Sony and Microsoft – which can usually drive a squeeze on their own
    3. Supply chain disruption – A fire in Japan at Renesas Electronics. A trade war affecting Chinese semiconductor manufacturers. Freezing winter weather in Texas disrupting employees and their businesses. Now there is a drought in Taiwan affecting TSMC – the world’s largest semiconductor foundries

    More related posts here.

    More information

    Chip shortage is starting to have major real-world consequences 

    Global chip shortage: everything you need to know | CAR Magazine

    The global semiconductor shortage can be explained by the bullwhip effect 

    Chip industry pressures spur Renesas to diversify | Financial Times

    Taiwan’s chip industry under threat as drought turns critical | Financial Times

    Texas winter storm blackouts hit chip production | Financial Times

  • OrCam + more things

    OrCam

    OrCam Read – Transform the Way You Read – YouTube – I watched this video and wondered if this was a sign of failure in the education sector in terms of literacy. As far as I can tell, OrCam is a dedicated OCR appliance that reads back the text to you. In essence it is playing the same role as a scribe to a medieval lord. I suspect that OrCam is a product looking for a market and this is a skewed pitch

    Business

    Chinese investment in UK assets estimated to be £135bn : CityAM 

    Another One Bites The Dust: Why Verizon’s Divestiture Of AOL And Yahoo Is No Surprise | Forrester – Verizon’s sale represents a giant write down. I remember the uproar when Tumblr got wrote down from $1Bn to zero. This is a greater write down in absolute value.

    Consumer behaviour

    Are some personalities just better? – All-blues might really be happier and healthier. If so, it could a result of late modernity, or it might have always been true. Still, that doesn’t mean that evolution will favor all-blues, or that all-blues are “more successful”

    Economics

    The Failed Promise of Malaysia’s New Economic Policy – Asia Sentinel – Malaysia’s 49 year affirmative action programme for the Malay majority failed and helped precipitate a brain drain of Malaysian Chinese overseas (paywall)

    Ideas

    How the U.S. Government Can Learn to See the Future – LawfareResearch over the past decade funded by the U.S. government demonstrates that “keeping score” by quantifying the probability that a potential event will or will not happen leads to improved forecasting accuracy. This is especially true when that scorekeeping is paired with training to reduce cognitive biases, as well as tools that combine the forecasts of many people together, harnessing the “wisdom of crowds.” These methods are not just for carnival games and stock trading. They can provide clearer insight on national security questions – it looks like prediction markets might be getting their time in the sun again

    Security

    Sweden drops Russian hacking investigation due to legal complications | The Record by Recorded FutureSwedish government dropped today its investigation into the 2017 hack of its sports authority, citing the legal constraints that would have prevented prosecutors from charging the Russian hackers responsible for the intrusion, which officials claimed were mere pawns operating on behalf of a “foreign power.”

    China-linked hackers used VPN flaw to target U.S. defense industry -researchers | Reuters

    Chinese military unit accused of cyber-espionage bought multiple western antivirus products | The Record by Recorded Future 

    Apple brass discussed disclosing 128-million iPhone hack, then decided not to

    Wireless

    Opinion | Steve Jobs Never Wanted Us to Use Our iPhones Like This – The New York Times