Month: December 2018

  • ICE-ing

    ICE-ing – a method of protest using vehicles with internal combustible engines

    Sometimes writing posts are a matter of serendipity. I was out walking in Stepney Green and came across a series of electric vehicle charging points. I hadn’t paid any attention to them before.

    Right about the time that I noticed them; I saw that the parking bays in front of the charging points were all taken up by petrol or diesel engined vehicles. This being London were parking spaces tend to be a premium, I took a picture of the dissonant scene and quickly moved on.

    Untitled

    I came in and then read a piece of how truck owners in the US were trolling Tesla supercharging points. Car culture is still huge and overwhelmingly celebrating petrol engined vehicles. But in the US there is a definite sub-text to the protests; one of class war. Metropolitan elite Democrats versus middle America truck-owning Republicans hence ice-ing.

    I revisited the photo that I took earlier in Stepney Green. All the vehicles in the photo were mid-range Mercedes cars with the exception of the Nissan pick-up truck. What would the odds have been of a super-mini in the row of parked vehicles if this was just about parking spaces? Was it British ice-ing

    It didn’t seem organised; but more of an organic system. Some first ‘person like me’ committed the transgressive act of parking in a charging bay. This then gave ‘permission’ for others to do it as well and the spaces filled up.

    There are a number of reasons for a consumer to not want to purchase an electric car when looking for a vehicle:

    • Cost
    • Energy density / range
    • Speed of recharging
    • Charging point network
    • Vehicle choice

    A bigger and harder to crack issue for vehicle manufacturers is one of values. Electric cars don’t have a culture behind them. They may have good road performance but they are the wholemeal bread of the automotive world. Something you should so, rather than something you are passionate about driving. Internal combustion engines won’t go quietly into the night.

    BMW going into formula E and launching the i8 using the design language from the M1 was a nod towards making electric sexy. But on its own its like spitting in a hurricane. One Japanese vehicle manufacturer knew how to make electric (and petrol) vehicles exciting through

    • Customisation
    • Tinkering
    • Community
    • Noise
    • Spectacle

    Unfortunately for the automotive industry that vehicle manufacturer is Tamiya. Tamiya is a Shizuoka based manufacturer of remote control cars for hobbyists.

    Maybe the answer isn’t about marketing but about engineering?

    You can change the fuel without changing the excitement, noise or spectacle.

    Hydrogen powered combustion engines offer similar energy density and performance to petrol cars, but with water as the waste product rather than carbon monoxide. Battery technology currently relies on a lithium and most of the world’s supply comes out of a high desert in Chile – we’ve replaced one finite resource (oil) with another (lithium and rare earth metals).

    Toyota is already experimenting with hydrogen in Japan. BMW have done pilot programmes in the past and hydrogen as been trialled in heavy goods vehicles.

    More consumer behaviour related posts here.

  • Facebook secret rulebook + more things

    Inside Facebook Secret Rulebook for Global Political Speech – The New York TimesModerators express frustration at rules they say don’t always make sense and sometimes require them to leave up posts they fear could lead to violence. “You feel like you killed someone by not acting,” one said, speaking on the condition of anonymity because he had signed a nondisclosure agreement. – the Facebook secret rulebook for global free speech raises as much questions as it provides answers and gives Facebook dangerous extra governmental powers. More Facebook related content here.

    Amazon Alexa crashes after Christmas Day overload | The Irish TimesThe crash, at about 10am Irish time, prompted Amazon customers to complain about not being able to play festive songs, turn on their living room lights or get cooking instructions for Christmas dinner. – reminds me of working on the Cellnet / O2 Genie WAP portal that did a similar thing on Christmas day. And the technicians from Logica (now part of CGI) who supported it all having to roll back the Oracle database underpinning many of the systems including email.

    Silence has been golden for Jardine Matheson | Financial Timestoday’s Jardines is primarily Sir Henry’s creation. It is an intensely conservative institution that does not give a fig for modernity or the views of outside shareholders, and is overseen by an all-male, family infused board of directors. It is equally a daring merchant adventurer with plenty of grit. – Jardines were more averse to the risk that the 1997 handover of Hong Kong represented and have built up businesses in other countries unlike their peer Swire

    Amazon Alexa Shopping Tripled as Bose, Nerf Topped Holiday Sales | FortuneAmazon on Wednesday said that the number of voice-activated orders placed via its virtual personal assistant Alexa were three times greater during the 2018 holiday season than they were in the last year – is this proportionate to the increase in Alexa powered devices, this comparison is important in order to understand the ramifications of the growth pattern

    Huawei Veterans Selling AI to Banks Shape China’s Newest Unicorn – Bloomberg – 4Paradigm looks as if it could get crushed by Huawei’s wolf culture. The only thing holding it back is the lack of trust in the associatedHuawei name abroad and concerns about letting Chinese software manage the most sensitive data

  • T-WOG $ & things that made last week

    Things that made my day this week, apart from spending time with family, introducing my Mum to T-WOG $. T-WOG $ is the Terry Wogan secret pirate radio shows. We also ended up eating surprisingly little Christmas food; none of us really wanted the heaviness of seasonal fare that introduces food coma.

    For those who haven’t heard it, T-WOG $ is Peter Serfinowicz channels Terry Wogan; IF he hosted a show on rinse.fm. He gets the light, deft responses that Wogan perfected for his fan base during his heyday on BBC Radio 2 or TOGs as they were called. TOGs stood for Terry’s Old Geezers and Gals. Serfinowicz then marries this with the call out culture from pirate radio since the late 1980s.

    Terry was unfortunately taken from us going on for two years ago, but his cultural impact lives on.

    To complete the illusion; I just need to find an impressionist who can do a passable impression of Daniel O’Donnell spitting lyrics over drill tracks.

    RuPaul’s tic-tac diet from circa 1993… RuPaul had refined her persona by this time. This was done about the same time that RuPaul had her first album and mainstream success with Tommy Boy Records.

    A more serious interview with RuPaul Charles courtesy of Houston PBS

    Ireland, Brexit and the future of Transatlantic Relations

    An Irish perspective on Brexit. Daithi O’Ceallaigh is a former Irish Ambassador to the United Kingdom, so is likely to have an informed opinion with regards how the Irish government views Brexit.

    Three stories on video game addiction told in I Was A Winner. Its a great bit of film making about an issue that could be the tobacco industry of our time.

    And one last thing as a seasonal bonus

  • Populism & more in 2019

    At a macro level, the world is in a pretty strange place at the moment. Populism is at the centre of uncertainty across many countries in terms of political direction, macro economics, technology and consumer uncertainty.

    2016 State of the Union debate

    Populism and nationalism is on the march: Duterte in the Philippines. Trump in the US. The German right wing populism leaning political party AfD is shifting the Overton window in Germany. The yellow vests in France and the UK is channeling anger into political activism along fringe party lines providing an opportunity for populism. The UK has seen a rise in far right grassroots media mirroring the rise of The Canary and similar publications on the left both of which fuel different forms of populism. The Russians don’t need to do it as the populism and divisive politics is homegrown. The Queen’s speech called for unity in the country and the UK government’s Prevent anti-radicalisation programme has more far right cases than Islamic extremists. Even China has been gradually moving to a Han nationalism as part of its more forceful foreign policy. India and Pakistan have both seen a rise in sectarian politics. This has impacts in terms of foreign trade and economic growth. We are already seeing domestic brands rising in China and India; we may see a decline in brands and product SKUs in the likes of the UK – all of which will impact advertising budgets. At an agency office level; the chilling effect of nationalism is going to affect the movement of talent on both client and agency side. It’s hard to articulate the atmosphere of an agency that I was working in the day after the Brexit vote without using the word bereavement. I know people in my family and peers who are moving away. Over time this will impact culture and creativity. It is hard to remember but back in the 1970s the UK was much more parochial and less multi-cultural than it is now. Everyday things we take for granted like good food were much poorer experiences.

    There are so many variables in play we don’t know where populism and divisive politics is going, but there are dark possibilities to the government ‘by the seat of their pants’ which seems to be prevalent.

    Cryptocurrency and block chain: We’ve seen a wide range of crypto currencies decline in values this year. What are the factors might drive a recovery? Why would there be a spike in demand? I don’t know what that ‘X factor’ would be. I suspect that experiments in block chain such as verifying online media spend to prevent online fraud will start bumping up against the limitations of the technology. Blockchain has a relatively low transaction rate compared to legacy payment systems. Decentralisation still isn’t as good as an Oracle database or a mainframe a la the traditional banking system. Some applications just make no sense.

    From Farm to Blockchain: Walmart Tracks Its Lettuce – The New York Times – is a classic example of technology for technology’s sake. How much lettuce would Walmart be selling day in, day out? That data has to be collected across a complex supply chain. Secondly, its a privatised centralised blockchain which negates the technical benefits of Blockchain and makes me wonder why IBM weren’t selling in Db2 or Oracle high transaction speed relational database on a z-series mainframe. It’s announcements like this that makes one wonder if blockchain has jumped the shark.

    Virtual reality hasn’t seen the level of adoption that was predicted. The problem is no longer one of technology hardware (lets ignore battery life for a little while) but content. VR changes the way stories are told and experienced, it makes it hard to build brand experiences and compelling content. Microsoft has managed to build a community of early adopters in Altspace – a Second Life type environment. Augmented reality (AR) has been sporadically adopted and Apple has been putting a lot of work into building creator tools, but the decline of Blippar. Magic Leap’s demo film for its partnership with Cheddar doesn’t currently look like a compelling AR application to me. It does mirror, anecdotal evidence that suggests the most common use of VR is to replicate a big TV experience in a small space through the Netflix application.

    https://youtu.be/xjYE-joYjQs

    If 2017 and 2018 were the years when ad fraud became the bête noire of marketers, 2019 might see harder questions asked of influencer marketing practices. The move from influencers to micro-influencers was down to cost per reach and engagement. The move to nano-influencers implies a similar kind of shift again. Yet it seems to be largely taken on blind faith by marketers at the moment that influencers are good thing. I think many of the challenges that influence marketing faces when I wrote about them earlier are still valid. One question that I haven’t seen seriously considered by marketers is when you’re in a culture where ‘selling out’ has moved from being shameful to gen-x; to a badge of validation in the space of a decade that has to change the value proposition that influence brings? As a marketer the possible answer to that question worries me.

    The focus on ad fraud might be partly responsible for a slight resurgence in the realisation brand advertising is valuable. Performance advertising is about the now, brand advertising is all about sowing acorns that are reaped for decades to come. As a concept it’s easy to grasp at an empirical and research driven level. But when marketers typically stay in a role for a short time, the now becomes of outsized importance. They have to make an impact and then plan their exit strategy in what’s typically a three year cycle. Brand is hard for FMCG (fast moving consumer goods) brands to take on board as they see channel and shelf disruption from the likes of Amazon and Ocado. They have experimented with the direct sales model a la Birch Box and Dollar Shave Club, but that will only work with certain products. Consultants selling disruption are selling chaos; clients hedging against black swans often miss where change isn’t happening – consumer behaviour doesn’t change at the speed of PowerPoint. I’ll leave the last word on digital disruption to Mark Ritson.

    It’s hard to get emotional or feel any of the romance of news media from a home page, but the paper edition carries with it the great cultural power of journalism. Print editions will become the ‘couture’ offering of the news brands – loss-making but important assets for building and retaining authority and influence over the market

    Mark Ritson, The story of digital media disruption has run its course – Marketing Week 

    Validation of traditional media can be seen all around us. Amazon printing catalogues, online brands having flagship stores. Underground and out of home adverts for e-commerce businesses surround me as I go about my daily life in London.

    Stories with everything – I don’t know whether the recent trend of every social platform having a short form video function that disappears a la ‘stories’ is a wider socio-cultural trend or the constant carousel of changing formats as part of a ploy to keep users engagement rate up. For established platforms there is little to be lost by throwing new features agains the wall and seeing what sticks.

    I’ve omitted talking about 5G as it will take more than a year to get up and running. It won’t be clear what its application is until we start to see how effective the network is in practice. Gadgets like fold out phones won’t fundamentally change the pictures under glass interface used in smartphones for the past decade or so. Their impact may be exaggerated due to their high cost that consumers will bear one way or another.

    I realise that these are a series of random thoughts but would be interested to know what you think. Feel free to comment below.

  • Keyboardio + more news

    Keyboardio Blog — December 2018: A startling discovery – one of the worst tales I’ve heard about manufacturing in Shenzhen; this is off-the-hook. Keyboardio have been extraordinarily unlucky. Keyboardio are famous for making custom mechanical keyboards

    Volkswagen ‘readies to write off’ $300m investment in Israeli ride-hailing service Gett – Business – Haaretz.com – digital is a winner takes all environment, or at best an 80-20 duopoly. But I still reckon Uber’s model is BS because they still aren’t profitable. It is an arbitrage play that has failed because it requires public transport to be put out of business.

    Influencers Are Faking Brand Deals – The Atlantic – sounds like a cargo cult, but on social media. Presumably they think some lower tier brands will be impressed and offer them a real deal.

    Ex-Microsoft Intern: Google Deliberately Crippled Edge Browser | ExtremeTech – interesting that Microsoft staff are ascribing behaviour (product bundling) to Google that they did with Microsoft Explorer. Although it also wouldn’t surprise me if they were right on this occasion.

    This Health Startup Won Big Government Deals—But Inside, Doctors Flagged Problems | Forbes – interesting inside tale of Babylon Health. Interesting especially in the light of IBM Watson Health’s failure

    Defiant Xi Jinping Says No One Can Dictate Reforms to China – Bloomberg – depending how you read this statement “No one is in the position to dictate to the Chinese people what should and should not be done.” This could be defending legitimacy of CCP AND OR Chinese firms and people can do what they like abroad with impunity

    Xi Jinping’s Strongman Rule Comes Under Fire as China Celebrates Deng’s Reforms – WSJ – Xi will never be as good as Deng, just like his Dad wasn’t

    Netflix’s Movie Blitz Takes Aim at Hollywood’s Heart – The New York Times – it reminds me a bit of the ‘New Hollywood’ movement of the 1970s (paywall)