Looking back to when I started this blog, it would have been reasonable to expect an inevitable march of retailing from offline to online. Amazon was on a tear and search advertising volumes were increasing year on year. By the time I was at Yahoo! search advertising (focused on online retailing) counted for about half of all revenue for the company.
At that time Yahoo! had a Spotify-like subscription streaming music service that was viewed as a threat to Apple’s iTunes download only offering. When I worked there Yahoo Music was the number one online music site in terms of audience reach and total time spent by consumers on the site. Also display advertising was much bigger for brands than it is today and Yahoo! was guaranteed a good share of the online marketing spend from any movie launch at the time.
The reality of online retailing, was slower than our expectations. While COVID drove an increase in online retailing there has also been corresponding innovations in retailing as well.
Amongst the pioneers in this change have been luxury brands like Burberry and Nike, who brought digital into their stores to provide a superior customer experience.
Adidas brought manufacturing into its stores with its speedfactory experiment, allowing for fast time to market and customisation.
Supreme changed the cadence of retailing with the Thursday morning ‘drop’ which saw queues outside stores. Every Thursday became a launch day as far as their customers where concerned. The queue has moved from Apple’s annual cadence, to every week.
Until watching this video on Heat I didn’t understand its link to Michael Mann’s earlier projects Crime Story and L.A. Takedown; which were basically attempts to make the same story for film. One of the reasons why Heat looks so realistic is that the film used a number of ex-special forces consultants including Steven Mitchel, who you might know better as Andy McNab. Heat is a legendary film for putting Al Pacino and Robert DeNiro in the same scene at the same time.
Heat has fantastic dialogue and is used by the US military for training purposes.
Beauty
Is the BBL bubble about to burst? – The Face – BBL is Brazil Butt Lift – the big butt is going the way of oversized breast enhancement surgery. It will have its place, but it won’t be so extreme
‘Prison Gothic’: Hong Kong road signs reborn as new font – Hong Kong Free Press HKFP – “Responding to the social movements and changes is a big incentive for the fonts’ development,” said Brian Kwok, associate professor at Hong Kong Polytechnic University’s design school. “In the past, symbols of Hong Kong local culture might be egg tarts, milk tea and the Lion Rock,” Kwok told AFP. “Now fonts have become a way for young people to explore their Hong Kong identity.”
Which means the only listings are likely to be old industry listings of state owned firms that foreign investors wouldn’t want to deal with anyway. The second one was: Alibaba scales back global expansion plan to rival Amazon | Financial Times – Alibaba.com’s US operation has failed to meet its initial targets, forcing the Chinese company to readjust its growth plans, according to three people familiar with the operations. The project has also been hit by dozens of staff departures from its New York office. The troubles at its US business-to-business arm come as Alibaba steps up its international push as its domestic operations continue to get hit by Beijing’s tech crackdown, slowing economy and rising competition. However, Alibaba.com has struggled to retain US sellers since its launch, in part down to the difficulty of competing with the prices of global merchants. “US manufacturers aren’t as competitive, the cost of everything is a lot higher including labour. The team do not have enough support internally, so they can’t get enough suppliers and sellers on board,” one current employee said – you could read this as the US is uncompetitive, or Alibaba only manages to sell on cost rather than value (quality, flexibility, after sales service don’t matter).
Aviation sector will be disrupted for years, Qatar Airways boss says | Financial Times – “Covid has damaged the supply chain of the industry . . . I think that it will last for a couple of years — it is not going to go away tomorrow,” Akbar Al Baker told the Financial Times in an interview. Labour shortages in Europe, delays in aircraft deliveries from manufacturers and a lack of spare parts had all affected Qatar Airways, he added. – and this is without the problems that airports have faced in baggage handling etc. If aircraft deliveries were really an issue, why did Qatar pick a fight with Airbus?
HSBC’s past may not help its future | Financial Times – There is no place in the new Hong Kong for a pre-eminent bank which is not institutionally subject to the Chinese government. As China turns inwards, it makes sense for the ruling party to want its own financiers in command of a smaller standalone lender that will be well-capitalised, regionally-focused and prepared to serve national objectives, not global shareholders. The installation of a Communist party committee at HSBC’s Chinese investment banking subsidiary, reported by the FT, is a prelude of what is to come: a slow, patient strategy of small steps designed to make inevitable a break-up already determined on high in Beijing. That is why Ping An has fired the first shot in the final battle over the colonial legacy of Hong Kong — a place China has always called “a problem left over from history”. – the smart play would be to cut the PRC and Hong Kong business off from the rest of the network. While China is the growth engine, it relies on the rest of the network for this profitable wealth management business. Secondly, what will happen with Standard Chartered?
Ideas
Reviving Progress in the UK – there is an issue with the capital injection required by the plans outlined. Would anyone trust the UK government that they would be able to execute in a competent manner on the ideas? I think that the UK is suffering from a crisis of competence as much as anything else.
Associated Press Aims to Drop the Term “Assault Rifle” from StylebookThe Firearm Blog – really interesting change towards more neutral language while the progressive media obsesses about the new SIG-Sauer MCX Spear which is similar in terms of lethal effect to the longer range rifles field during the first part of the cold war. These cold war era designs have been modernised and are available to gun owners across most of the US. The MCX Spear relies on a newer, harder to get ammunition. This ammunition is also harder to fill at home than existing formats like the earlier NATO 5.56mm and 7.62mmm rounds. Older weapons like the Heckler & Koch G3 are a bit heavier but offer a similar performance, yet you wouldn’t get this information from the progressive media. Regardless of your opinion on gun control, the facts matter.
Beijing detains high-flying Tsinghua semiconductor boss, report says | Financial Times – Zhao Weiguo, the former head of an expansive Chinese conglomerate with state backing and deep investments in the global technology sector, has been placed under investigation by officials in Beijing, according to local media. The 54-year-old, who led cash-strapped chipmaking giant Tsinghua Unigroup for a decade, has been out of contact after being taken from his home by authorities in mid-July, reported Caixin, a Chinese business publication.
Decoded was originally written in 2013. I read this version. I know that there is a new edition being published in September 2022. Barden had been a marketer working at T-Mobile (now EE, BT’s mobile phone network), Diageo and Unilever.
His background and a foreword written by British marketing grandee Rory Sutherland give an indication of the book’s quality.
Once more with emotion
Barden’s background has skewed towards CRM, online marketing and consumer marketing. I disagree with Barden in one important way. Barden doesn’t think that emotion has any benefit in marketing. I agree with Barden to a point, beyond nostalgia, I won’t have an emotional connection with the brand of margarine spread that I buy. The nostalgia is largely out of control of the brand.
However, both the IPA and WARC have shown that communications that provokes an emotional reaction can build long term awareness over time. Think about the adverts that get stuck in your memory, versus rational adverts. Emotional adverts make you feel something, even if they don’t change your opinion of the product they can build memory structures with enough exposure.
The challenge as Barden points out, being able to do this consistently. The example that Barden cites is Cadbury’s inability to match the quality of its ‘Gorilla’ advert.
Getting beyond emotion
Beyond a difference of opinion on the effect of emotion in communications, I thought that the content in Decoded was very good. The book felt to me as if it was aimed at British junior inhouse brand marketers at the likes of Unilever and Diageo where Barden aimed his stripes. The book is full of British examples, this might limit its success in the US. The examples are already old enough that they might not resonate with marketers who recently left college; but they would leave US readers clueless. While British marketers are often exposed to US authors at the start of their careers like David Aaker and Philip Kotler; the same isn’t true for their American peers of British marketing thinkers.
I also see it valuable for marketing undergraduate students, with its real world examples. He also does these summary pages at the end of each chapter that reminded me of ‘Dummies Guides‘ format books.
Decoded covers behavioural science principles and is valuable for the quality of reading list that it provides the reader to delve into after they have read the book.
Barden dives into the kind of concepts that brand marketers would come across in shopper marketing and ad testing from the likes of Kantar. He provides a sound basis on which marketers can rely to understand, if not, critique their agency’s efforts.
Beside emotion, my biggest concern is that marketers might think that Decoded is the final step on their education journey, rather than the first step. It provides a useful primer that the engaged marketer can then delve into. Unfortunately for us all, there are a lot of surface player who would declare mission accomplished at this point.
If like me, you wanted a follow on read from Decoded, my recommendation would be Phil Graves Consumerology, which I reviewed here. Graves’ work nicely fits in with the discussion Barden had on shopper marketing from an expert in the field.
I had heard a variant on the ‘Soviet steel’ story that was responsible for Italian cars being rust buckets when I was growing up. The version I heard was that high proportions of recycled scrap from rusted war wreckage and dismantled ships had been put in Italian steel to make it cheaper. (It was easy to believe this version. Libya had a strong historic connection to Italy and prior to oil being discovered Libya’s top export was scrap metal from abandoned military equipment of the second world war’s North African campaign.) Secondly, Russian cars that made it to the west were unreliable and suffered from rust, which supported beliefs about Soviet steel. The reality would have been that the quality related issues in Alfa Romeo’s factories likely would also occur with unmotivated Soviet workers during the economic stagnation from the late 1960s onwards.
Soviet goods had a rough and ready feel to them, it would be reasonable to assume that Soviet steel wasn’t great. The alternative explanation in this video seems to be reasonable. This viewpoint has changed in the belief of engineers like my Dad that Chinese steel of a particular grade has a quality discount like the Soviet steel of old.
Klarna valuation crashes to $6.5bn from $46bn | Financial Times – unsurprising when I see reports that about 30% of buy now, pay later loans will be struggling to pay them back. It reminds me of storecard debt during the 1991 recession. I was working during college holidays for MBNA a few years later and people were using the balance transfer function to get £20,000 to £30,000 of store card debt on to a card to play off at a lower interest rate. MBNA was then securitising their debt via bonds. There’s probably people who bought a suit at Burtons in the late 1980s that only cleared that debt by the time the millennium came around
People are leaving Hong Kong and here’s where they’re going – “Everyone’s going to Singapore,” said Pei, especially those working in finance, law and recruitment, she said. Kay Kutt, CEO of the Hong-Kong based relocation company Silk Relo, agreed, saying people are attracted to the ease of business, family friendliness, tax incentives and open borders of Singapore. In its 40-year existence, the past three years have been the busiest years on record for Silk Relo’s sister moving company, Asian Tigers, she said. “We cannot keep up with the capacity,” she said. “We don’t have enough people to serve what’s going on in the marketplace.” Families are transferring to Singapore, she said, but small- and medium-sized businesses are also on the move. Whereas one company executive might have left in the past, now “they’re all going,” she said. Small companies are “taking the entire team and putting them into Singapore.” Large companies are also relocating to Singapore, said Cynthia Ang, an executive director at the recruitment firm Kerry Consulting. She cited L’Oreal, Moet Hennessy and VF Corporation — the latter which owns brands such as Timberland and North Face — as examples, while noting there are more who haven’t made their decisions public yet. – the volume going to Singapore is immense based on the amount of people that I am seeing coming to the UK
Hong Kong resistance will live on – SupChina – a few things here. I thought the parallels between Tibet’s annexation by China and Hong Kong was interesting. I don’t think that resistance will continue on. For the majority of people, its just easier to leave. People are going to Thailand, the UK, Australia, Canada and Singapore. They are connected through family networks to the world.
Will Southeast Asia support Russia’s war with semiconductor exports? — Radio Free Asia – Southeast Asian states, apart from Singapore, have eschewed sanctions and continue to trade with Russia. But as the war drags on, that will have consequences in terms of secondary sanctions and other penalties imposed by the west. Russian supply chains run through Southeast Asia, and the United States and other western governments are have made the targeting of Russian sanctions evasion operations a top priority. One area where Southeast Asian actors may be tempted into sanctions evasion – or where, conversely, they could help pressure Russia economically – is in the export of semiconductors. – there will be a point when they will be on the receiving end of either Chinese aggression or western sanctions. In either case, the west will just standby
Why talk about delivery services? On the days that I go into office I am reminded of the late 1990s and 2000 with online services marketing, in particular delivery services. The Super Bowl advertising had a plethora of online businesses, Coinbase’s QRcode ad will likely be the Pets.com sock puppet of 2022. (The reason why online businesses are on TV is that it represents the lowest cost per reach for effective brand awareness of any medium, including digital channels).
https://youtu.be/0XXPKvbNr8o
Growth hacking
We also saw a resurgence in growth hacking, trying to get consumers to go from ‘I’ve never heard of you’ to app download as fast as possible. Which usually means thrusting a leaflet with a QRcode into my hand as I leave the tube station on my way home most week day evenings. A lot of these apps are delivery services.
Here’s a list of the on-demand delivery services that have been promoted to me so far:
Getir – I had a leaflet from Getir one time at the the tube station. It’s purple and yellow brand colours caught my attention because it immediately reminded me of vintage Yahoo! I threw the leaflet in the recycling and paid no more attention until ‘Taxi-gate‘. The company alleged that their agency partner didn’t buy enough taxi advertising for their brand and instead bought advertising for other delivery services. I didn’t realise until I started researching this post that Getir was founded in 2015 by a team in Turkey.
Uber Eats – Uber Eats had already established itself as a restaurant delivery service to rival Deliveroo and Just Eats. It has also pivoted into grocery deliveries over the past couple of years in my neighbourhood. I would get emails and mailouts from my credit card company with a discount code for use the first time I grocery shopped on Uber Eats.
Deliveroo – Like Uber Eats Deliveroo had already established itself as a restaurant delivery service and expanded into grocery delivery services as well. I had them actively promoted to me via email, as I had used Deliveroo in the past
Ocado – This spring Ocado started promoting Ocado Zoom to me promising deliveries of a limited amount of products within two hours of order
Gorillas – Gorillas is a Getir analogue that was founded in Germany and launched in 2020. I got a number of leaflets from them, they were the most frequent leaflet that I received on my way out of the tube station. The logo was distinctive, but that’s all I could remember about it.
Kozmo.com
Kozmo.com could be considered to be the American dot com ancestor of online delivery services. Kozmo.com was the brainchild of two investment bankers in the US. It was launched in 1998 serving areas of New York. In July 2000, at the height of its business, the company operated in selected areas of Atlanta, Chicago, Houston, San Francisco, Seattle, Portland, Boston, New York, Washington, D.C., San Diego and Los Angeles. It was popular with young professionals and college students, in the areas that it served. But despite the delivery service’s careful choice of markets served, it didn’t survive the dot.com bust going under in April 2001. While the business had filed for an IPO, it never actually went public.
Economic circumstances
The UK is likely to be heading into a recession that will be harder and longer than our near peers. There is an inflation and commodity pricing storm that has caused a cost of living crisis currently dominating the political agenda and rising interest rates.
We know from businesses like Uber and Kozmo.com that delivery services are a low margin business at the best of times. We could be staring into another online business bust. This time it will be driven by a wider economic crisis rather than the precipitating incident, but the effect will be the same. Retail investors including pension fund savers will suffer.
It feels that we forget history and are doomed to repeat it. Yes smartphones made ordering more convenient than dial-up, but it still didn’t change the essential business model for these delivery services. These businesses relied on cheap money to burn through in the hope of eventually getting profitable. In this respect it reminds me of the dot.com startups that I used to meet at the start of my agency life who talked about not worrying too much about profitability, but about trying to move at ‘internet speed‘. We’ve already seen this kind of thinking at WeWork and other Softbank businesses.
History is destiny; if we fail to learn the appropriate lessons from it.
