Looking back to when I started this blog, it would have been reasonable to expect an inevitable march of retailing from offline to online. Amazon was on a tear and search advertising volumes were increasing year on year. By the time I was at Yahoo! search advertising (focused on online retailing) counted for about half of all revenue for the company.
At that time Yahoo! had a Spotify-like subscription streaming music service that was viewed as a threat to Apple’s iTunes download only offering. When I worked there Yahoo Music was the number one online music site in terms of audience reach and total time spent by consumers on the site. Also display advertising was much bigger for brands than it is today and Yahoo! was guaranteed a good share of the online marketing spend from any movie launch at the time.
The reality of online retailing, was slower than our expectations. While COVID drove an increase in online retailing there has also been corresponding innovations in retailing as well.
Amongst the pioneers in this change have been luxury brands like Burberry and Nike, who brought digital into their stores to provide a superior customer experience.
Adidas brought manufacturing into its stores with its speedfactory experiment, allowing for fast time to market and customisation.
Supreme changed the cadence of retailing with the Thursday morning ‘drop’ which saw queues outside stores. Every Thursday became a launch day as far as their customers where concerned. The queue has moved from Apple’s annual cadence, to every week.
Japan has had a small but vibrant Chicano culture scene for years. The Japanese have had a community on the west coast of the US for over a century and a love of the detailed sub-cultures of the US. Japan also influences cultures and consumers in Taiwan, Thailand, Hong Kong and even China. Add to that, the fact that Chicano culture is portrayed in shows that are streaming internationally like Mayans MC.
In the west, this would be called cultural appropriation; but I don’t think that really captures what’s going on here.
It is interesting that it is happening now, while Thailand is ruled by a military government; there is a sub-culture flourishing that probably looks rebellious and anti-authoritarian is very interesting.
Korea
Vice News did an episode on the families behind chaebols – Korean business empires called South Korea’s Untouchable Families. None of the content will be of any surprise to anyone who has read this blog or has an appreciation of modern Korean culture. The tale of how the chaebols where largely creations of the Korean government and in time managed to capture the country after the 1997 financial crisis is largely a matter of public record. The extra-legal nature of chaebols are the stuff of Korean dramas.
The ‘chaebol negotiation rule’ of a three year sentence commuted to five years probation is also well known.
What I found curious is how much emphasis they have put on Samsung, who have the most international reach and advertising spend. The Samsung semiconductor experience with workers suffering from cancer mirrors the experience of workers in fabrication facilities when they were based in Silicon Valley. So the risks involved in the chemicals and the need for protection would have been well known.
Asianometry has also recently published a video on the Chaebols that takes a slightly different take on the rise of the companies, linking their rise with weak and financially challenged political parties.
Japan – Tokyo Girl’s Collection
I have written about Tokyo Girl’s Collection in the past. It is interesting to see that it was extended into the metaverse this year. The formula is still largely the same:
A large live event with entertainment
Models and dokusha-models. (These are chosen among actual readers of the magazines as “representatives”. They are more attractive than average readers but not pretty enough to be actual models).
Online shopping and m-commerce of looks that the audience wouldn’t be able to buy locally if they live outside Tokyo
Hong Kong deindustrialisation
By the time I got to Hong Kong, the city’s industrial base had migrated north to the mainland. But I did get to see the massive packaging and printing factory that had been converted to the home furnishing shopping centre now called Horizon Plaza in Ap Lei Chau. As a child many of my clothes and toys had ‘Made in Hong Kong’ written on them.
I got to see the massive buildings that used to have clothing factories in Fo Tan and the Sui Fai Factory Estate – a multi-storey building full of light industrial units. De-manufacturing encouraged the rent-seeking oligarchs that dominate Hong Kong today, for instance Li Ka shing started off manufacturing plastic flowers and other light industrial processes, but pivoted to rent seeking businesses property, telecoms and retailing.
LIHKG forum became famous beyond Hong Kong when it was at the centre of the leaderless protest movement during the 2019 Hong Kong protests. Hong Kong’s local internet has a history of Reddit like forums since the late 1990s.
HKGolden
Prior to 2016, there was the HKGolden Forum named after the Golden Computer shopping centre in Sham Shui Po. Golden Computer shopping centre considered one of the cheapest places in Hong Kong to purchase a computer. Products on sale range from complete PC systems, smartphones and peripherals. Unlike purely consumer-oriented IT shopping centres, Golden features several stores specialising in professional grade networking equipment as well.
The HKGolden forum fell out of a site put up in the late 1990s by stall owners at the Golden Computer centre to show people what were the typical prices for computer parts. The HKGolden Forum served as a creator and distributor of memetic ideas in Hong Kong including new slang terms of the local Cantonese vernacular and promoting discussions of societal topics.
LIHKG
LIHKG forum seemed rise in prominence once it was launched in 2016, quickly eclipsing HKGolden. It is restricted to contributors having an email address from a Hong Kong ISP (like Netvigator) or a local higher education institution. The LIHKG forum pig icon became a familiar motif on 2019 Hong Kong protest posters and artwork.
Since the national security law in Hong Kong it has has been a source of some anti-vaccination / public health programme discussions. Today the LIHKG forum app has been taken down from the Android and iOS app store.
Most Hong Kong political discussions have already moved on to various Telegram channels.
China has a fateful choice to make – by Noah Smith – An angry, chauvinistic nationalism has become a deeply rooted force in China’s society. Even as China’s government has wavered on whether to support Putin, there has been a massive outpouring of support for the invasion on Chinese social media. Of course that nationalistic sentiment isn’t unanimous, and it’s hard to tell what percent holds it, but for now they seem to have the upper hand. In fact, at this point it’s not clear that China’s top leadership could stop the nationalist tide even if they wanted to; like the generals of Imperial Japan, they could end up getting pushed into aggressive action by a populace that had no idea of the risks. – interesting that we’re starting to see this kind of rhetoric beyond reactionary elements
Park Island. (For Peter Moss, May 2018) | by Aidyn F | Medium – my friend Aidyn’s poetry. We were introduced by a former colleague of mine from Yahoo! who had worked in Hong Kong as a TV presenter before the handover. Aidyn introduced me to the Foreign Correspondents Club and gave me a different perspective on Hong Kong
Big Tobacco’s future in Russia goes up in smoke | Financial Times – a classic case of consumer globalisation: they made sophisticated products, marketed them expertly and raised quality standards. It would be fine apart from one problem: the product was cigarettes and the World Health Organization estimates that more than 19m Russian smokers will die prematurely. Hence the global pivot that companies have been trying to make towards vaping and heat-treated tobacco devices, including Philip Morris’s IQOS and BAT’s Glo. Russia has been vital to the “smoke-free future” that Philip Morris now promises and one executive last year hailed its “truly very spectacular progress” there. It is not clear how much safer heat-treating tobacco is to produce a nicotine vapour rather than smoking it in cigarettes. One analysis concluded that users of the devices inhale “substantially fewer” toxicants, but the results were mixed and most studies are done by tobacco companies. Nor is the purpose of heat-treated tobacco devices obvious. Philip Morris says that 72 per cent of IQOS users switched entirely from cigarettes in 2020, but it leaves many who carry on using both. There is an echo of the past transition from Belomorkanals to Marlboro Golds: better, but not good
Gadgets
Sound On Sound Issues (Active) – Amazing archive of the early issues from Sound on Sound magazine including amazing Japanese synthesisers like the Roland D-50
MTR sees Covid tester in action | The Standard – LIHKG forum users shared candid photos of Hong Kong people testing themselves for COVID in public including on the MTR and while out having a meal
Why the Chechen Warlord Wears Designer Boots | GQ – As Russia invades Ukraine, murderous Chechen leader and Putin ally Ramzan Kadyrov is using designer pieces to demonstrate his power. I don’t think Prada really wants Ramzan Kadyrov as a brand ambassador
I got a chance to watch the Vintage Tomorrows documentary the other evening. It was interesting that it had a range of practitioners such as William Gibson and Bruce Sterling in it. Cory Doctorow gave some of the explanations of the culture. There were a number of things that Vintage Tomorrows just scratched the surface on:
How can steam punk be decolonised? Steam Punk is based on a new-liberal society that thrived on child exploitation and had colonisation at its centre. Add to that is the fact that steam punk is the very essence of Stuff White People Like.
There is a question about the reductive dismal nature of science fiction, a theme that William Gibson has reflected on at length.
The relationship between our own convergent technology path and gadgets. This also brings in the control that people feel with hardware that they can build. There was aspects around specialisation that wasn’t touched up on, but its into this as well.
I thought that Vintage Tomorrows didn’t reflect more on Victorian originators of science fiction like Jules Verne beyond a name check. I would like to have heard more about William Gibson and Bruce Sterling’s take on things.
I felt that there was a huge opportunity missed in not getting Neal Stephenson on camera to discuss steam punk on Vintage Tomorrows.
With Yoon’s Election, It’s Time for China to Rethink Its Korea Policy – The Diplomat – China remains – at least in the short to medium run – South Korea’s preferred trading partner, with the country being Seoul’s largest export-import partner, over the United States, by a substantial margin. With slowing growth rates, uncertainty over the real estate sector, and declining demographics in China as looming challenges on one hand, and surging inflation and protectionist amplification of domestic industries in the United States, neither China nor the U.S. presents itself as the natural, exclusive economic partner for Seoul in the long run. More promising, perhaps, would be the exploration of expanded options and connections between South Korea and emerging markets such as Vietnam and India, as well as the European Union. Yoon centered his campaign around the allegations that the present regime has been too economically dependent upon China
Xerox PARC spins out predictive maintenance for IIoT – eeNews Europe – The Xerox Palo Alto Research Centre (PARC) has an iconic place in the history of the electronics industry, developing the ideas behind such innovations as the computer mouse, Ethernet and laser printing. But with Xerox waning in influence in the digital age and a focus on software and services, PARC as a subsidiary since 2002 has perhaps struggled in its open innovation role of custom R&D services. One area where it has been innovating is the Industrial Internet of Things (IIoT). It has now launched new venture to commercialize predictive maintenance technology that reduces unplanned downtime in industrial manufacturing operations. – ok this undersells the work that Xerox PARC did in software, operating systems, distributed services, user experience and networking, but the introduction of Navity is very interesting. There are certain limits to this for instance production lines that depend on several machines will still need scheduled maintenance
Hino Motors is a car and truck manufacturer best known for its iconic Hino trucks. It started its convoluted origin story spinning out of manufacturing company owned by Tokyo Gas.
Before there was Hino trucks, there were a small amount of half tracks and armoured personnel carriers made for the Imperial Japanese Army. After the war Hino got into the truck business and for a brief while also made cars. The pretty Hino Contessa coupé showed potential, but becoming part of the Toyota group saw Hino focus on commercial vehicles under its own name.
Hino trucks with their winged logo marked my childhood in Ireland. Hino trucks pulled palleted loads on taunt liner trailers, shipping containers and flat bed trailers of hay. The supermarket delivery wagons, the bakers lorry, skip deliveries, ready mix and the dairy picking up milk from my Uncle’s farm were all using Hino trucks. The distinctive unblinking three green lights on the roof of oncoming Hino trucks stood out of the total darkness of rural Irish roads.
I had Robert ‘Pino’ Harris to thank for making Ireland the Hino trucks capital of Europe at the time. And his Hino trucks success story is one of a singular focus on relationships and customer service.
Adidas ousts China chief as sales suffer after consumer boycott over Xinjiang | Financial Times – Allison Malmsten, sportswear analyst at China-focused consultancy Daxue Consulting, said that since the boycott, Nike and Adidas have ceded their top position on ecommerce apps such as Alibaba’s Tmall. In their place, local online retailers have promoted Li-Ning and Anta, making the “competition a lot stiffer”.Jonathan Cummings, Asia-Pacific president of brand consultancy Landor and Fitch, said that after years of market dominance, Adidas and Nike were being challenged by “cheaper domestic brands that have become stronger”.Adidas generated nearly a quarter of its sales in the Greater China region in the first half of last year, the bulk of which came from mainland China. – it will be interesting to see where adidas will try to go in China and whether they feel it is worth riling western customers to arrest their decline in China
The rising costs of China’s friendship with Russia | Financial Times – When the Russian invasion of Ukraine started two weeks ago, Jane Yan, a senior executive at a machine parts maker in eastern China, says she was not too worried about the impact. After all, buyers in Russia and Ukraine accounted for less than 5 per cent of the company’s overseas sales last year. But as the full ferocity of the Russian onslaught started to become apparent, the outlook shifted dramatically. Important clients in countries such as Poland and Germany cancelled orders with the Zhejiang-based company. “A Munich-based client said ‘it feels terribly wrong to send money to a country that is tolerating war in Ukraine — sorry’,” said Yan, who asked that her employer not be identified. She added that inquiries from European buyers have also fallen sharply since the conflict started. “I hope the war ends as soon as possible.” – I wonder how prevalent this consumer boycott actually is of Chinese products?
Culture
Why disco will never truly die — Quartz – interesting, but full of American privilege, but no love for producers like Giorgio Moroder, Luxxury, Dimitri from Paris, Late Night Tuff Guy or The Reflex
Ideas
How factory robots lead to human deaths – Futurity – “For decades, manufacturers in the United States have turned to automation to remain competitive in a global marketplace, but this technological innovation has reduced the number of quality jobs available to adults without a college degree—a group that has faced increased mortality in recent years,” says lead author Rourke O’Brien, assistant professor of sociology at Yale University.
“Our analysis shows that automation exacts a toll on the health of individuals both directly—by reducing employment, wages, and access to healthcare—as well as indirectly, by reducing the economic vitality of the broader community.”
Since 1980, mortality rates in the United States have diverged from those in other high-income countries. Today, Americans on average die three years sooner than their counterparts in other wealthy nations.
EACH NEW ROBOT PER 1,000 WORKERS LED TO ABOUT 8 ADDITIONAL DEATHS PER 100,000 MALES AGED 45 TO 54 AND NEARLY 4 ADDITIONAL DEATHS PER 100,000 FEMALES IN THE SAME AGE GROUP. Automation is a major source of the decline of US manufacturing jobs along with other factors, including competition with manufacturers in countries with lower labor costs, such as China and Mexico.
Previous research has shown that the adoption of industrial robots caused the loss of an estimated 420,000 to 750,000 jobs during the 1990s and 2000s, the majority of which were in manufacturing.
Can Intel out-design Apple in terms of chips? I think that is certainly possible, possibly even extremely likely
Can Intel compete with Apple on process? Possibly soon, if they managed to partner with Samsung or TSMC. Certainly in the longer term if Intel’s process engineers get their mojo back, or they continue to partner with TSMC or Samsung
Roundtable: A Brutally Honest Conversation on the Metaverse – Web 2.0 Is about the individual/the corporation, and Web 3.0 is about the collectivist statement, or the community / collectivist environment, in some ways. – interesting that there is a whole piece missing about web 1.0 being about personal and organisation publishing and communications. Web 2.0 being a web of data and creativity
Sony and Honda reveal plans to jointly make and sell electric vehicles | TechCrunch – this might also explain why Sony’s ‘concept’ car seemed to have a lot of money put into it, to make it look like a finished product a couple of years ago. Sony and Honda’s EV venture is a lesson for corporate Japan | Financial Times – the FT makes a number of good points about the relatively junior role that Honda is taking in the endeavour and that Sony making a decision to go independent indicates that consolidation of vendors in the electrical vehicle space is far off. I expect that the Sony and Honda deal in this respect is partly the pressures driven by the amount of ‘dumb capital’ chasing electric and automotive vehicles.
Sony and Honda likely see their deal as an antidote to that pressure. There were also fair comments made about relative software expertise between Sony and Honda, however I would argue that there is still a need for stable underpinnings of the software from the likes of QNX. But in the critique of the previous motor industry partnerships isn’t fair. For instance, Yamaha has a long history of taking concepts and designs to Toyota for them to build them. The most iconic of which was the Toyota 2000GT. So in many respects Sony and Honda are working on similar heritage to others.
It is interesting that we haven’t seen a similar pairing to Sony and Honda between Samsung and Renault, given their Korean car assembly joint venture. It is also interesting that Apple has failed to secure a similar partnership to Sony and Honda in its car efforts so far.
China’s Two Traps by Keun Lee – Project Syndicate – China’s economic slowdown suggests, the next phase of its development is rife with challenges. The country risks being ensnared by two traps: the “middle-income trap” (the tendency of fast-growing developing economies to lose momentum once they reach middle-income status) and the Thucydides Trap (when tensions between an insecure incumbent hegemon and a rising power lead to conflict)
Why are Chinese students so keen on the UK? – BBC News – The initial attraction of Glasgow – as well as its solid academic reputation – to many was how the Victorian university buildings looked on the brochures, rather like Hogwarts from the Harry Potter films
How China’s Ambitious Belt and Road Plans for East Africa Came Apart – The Diplomat – Chinese actors typically approach BRI deals with two contradictory assumptions: First, the political leadership with whom they are dealing is either too weak or too venal to challenge contract terms that decidedly favor China; and, second, these same leaders will be strong enough to fend off resistance to ambitious infrastructure projects by opposition politicians and civil society groups while also mobilizing the financial resources necessary to sustain expensive, long term projects. – they expect the kind of smooth running process that they would have in China, but not surprisingly don’t get it
Chinese lenders squeeze African borrowers even harder | Financial Times – Chinese lenders are imposing even more stringent collateral requirements on low-income country borrowers than previously known as they seek to hedge risks from their extensive overseas development finance programme. Under a $200mn loan from China Eximbank for the expansion and modernisation of Entebbe airport, the Ugandan government is required to channel all revenue from the country’s only international airport into an escrow account, according to the contract obtained by AidData, a US-based research lab. The document highlights a long-running controversy over the loan to Uganda’s government, which damaged its relationship with the bank. And more here: China cobalt mine deal was ‘injustice’: my country did not get anything, ex-DRC leader says | South China Morning Post
Hong Kong
Chinese fitness app Keep files for Hong Kong IPO · TechNode – interesting that this is going ahead given the kind of data that Keep would have. One only needs to look at the opsec failures that Strava revealed of American forces in the Middle East and Afghanistan
The war in Ukraine is going to change geopolitics profoundly | The Economist – Japan, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan joined in sanctions against Russia, as did Australia. The change of mood in Japan has been particularly striking. Over the past decades it has tirelessly wooed Russia, in part to counterbalance China but also in the hope of settling the problem of four northern islands seized by the Soviet Union. Abe Shinzo, the former prime minister, met Mr Putin 27 times, including a trip to an onsen bathhouse. Now, under Kishida Fumio, Japan has frozen the share of Russia’s central bank reserves held in the country and is urging fence-sitters to take a clearer stance against its former pal. The end of the cold war was never going to usher in perpetual peace. But the Ukraine crisis is giving new form to the possibilities for future conflict and ways in which it may be averted. It is raising the previously outré possibility of territory being stripped from a developed country by force. By bringing Russia and China closer together, it is putting a new burden on the system of American alliances that partially encircles them. It has started consolidating Europe’s belief in itself and its ideals, and may increase its willingness to fight for them; it may also be seeing Germany and Japan, a lifetime after their defeat in the second world war, taking on new martial roles – the military rise of Japan will be worrying for China
Ukraine conflict risks uncontrollable escalation of cyberwarfare – Nikkei Asia – When and if Russia, or some other advanced-hacking state, pulls these tricks against a better-prepared adversary, resulting in a tit-for-tat escalation that could quickly spin out of control. Given the historical weakness of digital security in much of the U.S.’s civilian infrastructure, notably the electric utilities and grid, we can imagine a situation in which Russia or China, or some other entity causes not just inconvenience but casualties, including deaths. What would the U.S. do then? If Russia took down electricity from Boston to Washington, New York to Chicago, the American people would get very, very angry. What would an American government do next? The U.S. has said, with strategic vagueness, that an attack on critical infrastructure, including digital infrastructure, could ultimately trigger a military response. Then what? In 1962, futurist Herman Kahn published “Thinking the Unthinkable,” pondering nuclear-war scenarios in ways that few of the people who had control over those civilization-killing weapons had ever considered. No one wanted to prevent nuclear war more than Kahn, in part because he understood what it would mean. We do not believe that nearly enough thinking about cyber-unthinkables is taking place today, nor the escalation scenarios that would bring them on.
Chinese telecoms giant Huawei has been helping Putin’s efforts to stabilise Russia’s internet | Daily Mail Online – Huawei, which reportedly has five research centres in Russia, is said to have ‘rushed to Russia’s aid’ to support its internet network in the face of the attacks. A report, which appeared on a Chinese news site but was later deleted, claimed that Huawei would use its research centres to train ‘50,000 technical experts in Russia’. – The Mail on Sunday is now covering the kind of stories that previously only featured on the English language pages of late lamented Apple Daily Online published out of Hong Kong.
Arm China CEO asserts semiconductor joint venture’s right to pursue an IPO independent from its SoftBank-owned British parent | South China Morning Post – “Arm has written to Chinese authorities that Arm China won’t survive without [the British firm’s] support,” Wu said. He indicated, however, that Arm China has already developed the capability to continue its operations separately from Arm in the UK. The stand taken by Wu in Arm China forms part of a larger effort by the country’s semiconductor industry to overcome US trade sanctions and build a world-class chip supply chain. The dispute with Arm has not slowed down its Chinese joint venture’s business under Wu. Last year, Arm China generated US$700 million in total revenue, including intellectual property licensing and royalty fees. Arm’s share in its China venture was about US$500 million last year, according to Wu. “Arm can’t afford to lose its share of revenue from the Chinese market,” Wu said. He indicated that the Chinese joint venture has hit all its goals – including revenue, net profit, and research and development spending – which were set five years ago. Wu said Arm China’s biggest contribution to the Chinese chip design industry was to open the company’s source codes to domestic customers, “giving them freedom to develop their chips and raise their capabilities to a global level”. He also said he was displeased by Arm’s decision in May 2019 to cease business with Huawei Technologies Co, following Washington’s decision to add the Shenzhen-based telecommunications equipment maker to the US trade blacklist. – I suspect Mr Wu is working on behalf of the Chinese government in ‘war by other means’
