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  • Windows 8 sales

    From the changing interface to an absence of a start button, the analysts came out with reasons that felt unsatisfactory. It isn’t a lack of quality, if you look at the reviews by the technology press of Windows’95, you’ll see a product that sucked in a way that made Vista look perfect by comparison; yet it went on to be the best-selling Microsoft product ever. Windows 8 has its problems, but in comparison to Vista its a really well made product. The fundamentally-flawed Windows 95 was the acme of Microsoft’s position in the marketplace. Given all this spurious debate, I thought I would throw some ideas out instead:

    • The economy – China now has single digit growth, economists generally agree that India isn’t living up to its economic potential. Brazil has problems, Europe is still going through the great restructure. The US is growing slowly but full of turmoil as government spending is causing uncertainty. All of these factors will affect purchases across IT and consumer electronics
    • The web – the biggest thing the web did was negate operating system specific file formats like those on Windows 8 applications. You no longer need to write a document in Word or a spreadsheet in Excel. Enterprise applications no longer need to have a client piece of software running on a PC. This also means that you don’t need to follow software release cycles to keep your PC relevant. Given that the killer app for the PC is the web, replacement cycles for computers have lengthened. A friend of mine, recently had their iPad, iPhone 5 and PowerBook stolen in their house. Yes, that’s right I said PowerBook, their laptop which they were happy with was about seven years old…
    • Opportunity costs – So you have a computer that’s a few years old, but you are still happy with it and smartphones moving forwards more rapidly, so need to be replaced every 18 months to two years. The new PC purchase will get put on the back-burner
    • Substitute products for a Windows 8 PC – This is the classic butter-margarine example that economics teachers used to trot out before low-fat spreads caught the awareness of coronary wary consumers. But in a web-based world tablets that provide a PC like web experience are a substitute for a full-blooded personal computer. An iPad can run Myst, show video and communicate with others via the internet
    • A lack of a compelling reason to upgrade – Robert X. Cringely wrote his book Accidental Empires back in the early 1990s, had a whole chapter on the future of computing. One of the most striking parts of this chapter for me was a paragraph with a quote from Ken Okin who worked at Sun Microsystems at the time:  Ken Okin, who was in charge of hardware engineering for the Lisa and now heads the group designing Sun Microsystems’ newest workstations, keeps a Lisa in his office at Sun just to help his people put their work in perspective. “We still have a multitasking operating system with a graphical user interface and bit-mapped screen, but back then we did it with half a mip [one mip equals one million computer instructions per second] in 1 megabyte of RAM,” he said. “Today on my desk I have basically the same system, but this time I have 16 mips and an editor that doesn’t seem to run in anything less than 20 megabytes of RAM. It runs faster, sure, but what will it do that is different from the Lisa? It can do round windows; that’s all I can find that’s new. Round windows, great!”  So even back as far as the early 1990s there was a lack of a compelling reason to upgrade from machine-to-machine. This is even more of the case now. Cringely claimed that in order to have a radical jump in software appearance you would need a corresponding jump in the hardware. The last big jump that we had in personal computing was the tablet PDA
    • The declining power of the IT guy – between BYOD (bring your own device) and the rise of small or freelance businesses there are less traditional corporate users. The power of the Microsoft Certified system is diminished and with that decline has gone the ability to specify a Windows-based computer
    • The law of big numbers – Microsoft already has a huge installed user base, most sales will not be won from its competitors but from itself. That’s a tough place to be if people are looking for stellar growth
    • Paradigm shifts mean deskilling people – Metro represents a new way of using a computer. It threatens consumers current computer literacy knowledge. For many consumers there was no on-ramp
    • Divergence, convergence and the sitting room – a perfect storm of dedicated media server substitute products (Roku, Boxee, Apple TV), smart TVs, games consoles and tablets have squeezed the laptop, media PC and gaming machine in ‘lean back entertainment’ scenarios. We are seeing traditional brown goods being replaced by other goods (often providing a more convenient but poorer quality experience) in the living room that have also subverted multimedia computing

    Does Windows 8 mean Microsoft is doomed? No.

  • This is your brain on e-books

    This is your brain on e-books

    This Is Your Brain on E-Books | MIT Technology Review – This is your brain on e-books highlights how e-books are different. I had a similar experience to this is your brain on e-books that I called Kindle brain

    Consumer behaviour

    The broken record: vinyl, matter, memory and meaning – FACT Magazine: Music News, New Music. – interesting take on how the artifact of records (and other media) are as important as the content itself

    McKinsey – Asian consumer insights – great set of reports

    Economics

    The Terrifying Reality of Long-Term Unemployment – The Atlantic

    Statistical Yearbook for Asia and the Pacific 2012 by the UN

    Finance

    Iterations: How Five Real Economists Think About Bitcoin’s Future | TechCrunch

    The biggest banks say the biggest banks aren’t worth investing in, and regulation’s to blame – Quartz

    Six Reasons Why Chinese People Will Drive the Next Bull Market in Bitcoin

    FMCG

    Unitever’s Unbeatable branded media 《无懈可击之美女如云》,何润东,赵柯,清扬-搜狐娱乐

    Innovation

    Darpa’s New Navigation Tool Is Smaller Than a Penny | Danger Room | Wired.com

    Media

    Really, Microsoft? Your vision for the future of TV is… an HDMI cable? — Tech News and Analysis – they also sold their IPTV business to Ericsson in the past couple of days

    Facebook Launches Partner Categories, 500+ Generic Profiles To Target Ads Better, With Data From Datalogix, Epsilon, Axciom | TechCrunch

    With Google’s Help, ‘Glamour’ Monetizes Hangouts – interesting ideas

    Yahoo, Apple Discuss Deeper iPhone Partnership – WSJ.com – this makes sense for both sides

    Online

    Google gains team behind Behavio, a startup that uses smartphone data to make predictions | The Verge – Google getting more user intent data and extending context into the real world to create the ‘web of no web’

    Twitter Now Rivals Facebook as Teens’ Most Important Social Network

    TripAdvisor Acquires Jetsetter for Undisclosed Amount | Betabeat

    Why Marissa Mayer Bought A $30M Startup – Business Insider – summation and reinvention of search is the key

    Security

    Computer Security Legend Mudge Leaves DARPA for Google Job – AllThingsD – if you are unemployed for six months you aren’t going to get a job

    North Korea Pirates Spy Tools and Porn on BitTorrent | TorrentFreak

    Huge attack on WordPress sites could spawn never-before-seen super botnet | Ars Technica

    Mozilla Wants to Eliminate Passwords With ‘Persona’ | Wired.com

    IRS claims it can read your e-mail without a warrant | Politics and Law – CNET News

    Software

    My iOS 7 wish list — Tech News and Analysis

    Facebook’s Android app can now retrieve data about what apps you use – The Next Web

    Apple asks developers to localize apps, opens Chinese Support forum in international push

    Opinion: Antitrust complaint against Android is an attack on open source | Ars Technica

    Microsoft, others behind new Android EU complaint – Rethink Wireless

    Is Windows 8 Killing PC Sales? Read the Fine Print: The Report of Windows’ Death was an Exaggeration | Forrester Blogs

    Technology

    AAPL, DELL, HPQ: Bernstein Ponders Lengthening PC Cycle – Barrons.com

    Google has a single towering obsession: It wants to build the Star Trek computer. – Slate Magazine

    China just surpassed the US in semiconductor manufacturing—and the trend is likely to accelerate – Quartz

    Telecoms

    The fastest way to speedy networks: ignore Uncle Sam — GigaOM – internet infrastructure driving clusters of economic progress

    Web of no web

    You Lookin’ At Me? Reflections on Google Glass. – Jan Chipchase – Voices – AllThingsD – interesting analysis around consumer behaviour and the context for Google Glass

    Wireless

    Cell Networks Are Energy Hogs – Alexis C. Madrigal – The Atlantic

    LG grabs third spot in global smartphone market|Economy|News|WantChinaTimes.com

  • Margaret Thatcher

    This isn’t a post about what I think about Margaret Thatcher, beyond my amazement at the body politic and their inability to make appropriate decisions related to the telecoms, media and technology sectors. It has never been that much of interest to me and viewed it with a lot of my cynicism fueled by legislation like part V of the Criminal Justice and Public Order Act 1994 or the Digital Economy Act 2010.

    I cited those two acts in particular, as they are empirical evidence that stupidity doesn’t run along party lines. I’ve also met some really smart politically active people who I am happy to consider my friends including Nick Osborne and Will Heald.

    Instead this post is more about trying to make sense of what happened after Margaret Thatcher died and try and contextualise it for the wider world.

    On the pro-Margaret Thatcher side of things the narrative is relatively easy. Mrs Thatcher was responsible for clearly differentiating against the Labour Party. The Conservatives came to power with a raft of ideas that they thought would reinvigorate the UK; socially and economically. Under Mrs Thatcher, the government took on and won conflicts against strong interest groups including the trade union movement – which has never recovered.

    The Margaret Thatcher administration was considered to have played a strong game abroad; from the Falklands Islands to negotiating with the European Community. She is also lauded as being a partner to Ronald Reagan on foreign policy.

    Mrs Thatcher is not President Reagan

    Whilst many American media saw an analogue between Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher; I think that a closer comparison would be Lyndon B. Johnson. Johnson became president at a troubled time. The politics of Thatcher and Johnson were very different but some of the factors of their administrations were very similar. America was going through economic and social change. His part in that change, in particular the civil rights movement divided voters – Johnson took decisions that were unpopular and sowed the seeds of the current bipartisanship in the US government.

    Margaret Thatcher faced similar troubled times in the UK:

    • UK industry was struggling – UK industry had suffered decades of chronic underinvestment and poor stakeholder relationships. It no longer had many of the advantages of its first mover status in the industrial age. In addition, the rebuild of mainland Europe after the war and US foreign policy towards the British Empire had accelerated the UK’s decline due to a lack of captive markets and increasing competition. Globalisation had come on stream as Korean shipyards, Japanese consumer goods and cheap Indian textiles demolished industry in the North of England. The interesting thing was that lots of foreign-run businesses in the UK were doing much better than their British counterparts so it couldn’t have been all about the workers
    • It is hard for anyone under the age of 25 to imagine it, but the Cold War promised imminent destruction which changed the relationship between western and eastern Europe. Deployment of US nuclear weapons on UK soil was emotive
    • Society generally wasn’t as liberal as it is now, being PC didn’t happen. Discrimination was rampant as the UK hadn’t addressed the changing racial and ethic mix of the country from descendants of the Windrush immigrants, the Irish and the South Asian immigrant communities. Enoch Powell had made his famous rivers of blood speech a few years before. Society wasn’t as accepting of the LGBT elements of the community
    • Foreign policy had to deal with a diminished role for the UK in the world. From trying to manage that the UK was outmaneuvered on Hong Kong by China to the unequal partnership with the US

    The conflict points

    • Monetary policy to reduce inflation – this drove up interest rates and sent many UK manufacturing businesses to the wall. A good deal of this was because Margaret Thatcher rejected Keynesian economics. Since the North of England was dependent on these businesses an economic gulf opened up between the South East and the rest of the country. Subsequent economic progress widened the gap further
    • Miners Strike – Margaret Thatcher and her cabinet sought to go head-to-head with the NUM which had brought down the Heath administration. Admittedly, the miners weren’t helped by Arthur Scargill’s leadership
    • Privatisation – took assets out of state control. It is controversial every time there is a train crash or electricity price hike as it allowed strategic assets to be owned by foreign companies the debate wages on about appropriate returns and a lack of investment
    • The big bang – deregulated banking and fueled further growth in the city. Along with the move to home ownership, new-fangled financial instruments created the conditions of the current economic crisis. The lack of a portfolio of industries in the UK economy meant the the country took a harder hit than other European countries with a similar balance sheet
    • Poll tax – the community charge or poll tax was a replacement for the property rates which used to fund council services. Since it was a flat charge on the individual it had been considered as far back as 1981 and viewed in a Green Paper to be unfair. It was eventually implemented first in Scotland and then in England and Wales in 1990. Riots ensued as the tax was considered to be unfair by many
    • Northern Ireland – the Margaret Thatcher administration had reasons to be disliked by both sides. Republicans due to the  way in which the Thatcher administration handled the Hunger Strikes in the Maze prison and the shoot-to-kill policy; Unionists due to the Anglo-Irish agreement that gave the Irish government a say in Northern Ireland’s affairs

    All of this has made the Conservatives almost unelectable in many parts of the UK; Scotland only has one Conservative MP. This is closer to the Lyndon B. Johnson analogy for Margaret Thatcher echoing Lyndon B. Johnson’s comments about losing the South for generations when he legislated on equal rights.

    Under-discussed aspects of the Thatcher administration

    • The Advisory Council on the Misuse of Drugs was allowed to shape and direct day-to-day policy on drug use which was at odds with Mrs Thatcher’s conviction (rather than evidence)-based approach to policy
    • Launching campaigns promoting safe sex and the dangers of AIDS. Again this sat against Mrs Thatcher’s personal beliefs in terms of family values
    • Taking climate change seriously. Prior to her career as a politician Mrs Thatcher has been a research chemist, which probably helped her understand the issue. Her understanding of climate change had nothing to do with her conflict with the miner’s unions
    • Ironically Margaret Thatcher signed the UK up to the Single European Act to create one European market
    • Abolished corporal punishment in state schools back in 1986. No more going to the headmaster’s office to be caned
    • Rupert Murdoch – Margaret Thatcher’s close relationship with Murdoch was a mutually beneficial relationship; however it set the template that led to the current news media debacle in the UK that lead to the Leveson Report

    What I can’t really explain is the amount of energy that has gone into the debate some 20 years after she left office.

    I suspect that Margaret Thatcher’s death is a point where the wider political agenda shaped by her administration has taken the UK since the mid-1990s is being debated.  This debate isn’t split along current party lines as Ed Milliband’s Labour Party is still similar to the New Labour of Tony Blair – just a bit jaded and suffering from a creative bankruptcy of new ideas.

    Secondly, when one looks at the like of the English Defence League, Casuals United and UKIP there seems to be at least part of the country who don’t feel as if mainstream politics represents them.

    Finally, there is an underlying anger in the poorer members of society for which the 2011 were a pressure valve letting off steam. Throw in some industrial action into the mix and it would all start to feel like 1979 again…

  • Blade Runner VHS tape

    If you are generation-X Blade Runner and ET were two sides of the same coin. I got to watch ET in the cinema but only got to see the Blade Runner VHS tape at first.

    Both films came out in the same year: 1982 and you got to see one, or the other. Being 12 at the time I got to see ET. It wasn’t only an age demarcation, but being a light and dark of the same scientific vision of the future. ET was light (with a couple of scary bits when the authorities capture him in the oxygen tent).

    On the other hand, Blade Runner was a dark dystopian future. The darkness fitted into the grim visage of the UK at the time, particularly in the North of England. It was no accident that some of the macro cityscapes mirrored the petro-chemical industry of Teeside where Ridley Scott grew up (and was eerily similar to the Mersey basin where I lived in the UK).
    Bladerunner Original VHS Front & Cassette
    There were also different in terms of their nature. While ET (like Ferris Bueller’s Day Off and Back To The Future) was a film filled it with consumerism.  ET was also film of passive consumption or ‘sit back media’, in that respect a very traditional film. The experience of Blade Runner was much improved if you managed to watch it on video.

    You could pause, rewind and move slowly through parts of the film to explore the multiple visual layers of the film. Given that games consoles and computers were less popular at the time videos like Blade Runner with deep rich content were the closest one had to an interactive experience.

    In fact exploring Myst a decade later and watching, pausing and rewinding Blade Runner gave me a similar kind of experience.

    Whilst I prefer the narrative of the later cuts, watching digital versions on DVD, Blu-Ray or iTunes seem too clean. Part of the experience missing is that bit of blur and white noise VHS offers, mainly because I first experienced Blade Runner on the small screen in what was then still largely an analogue world. The blur and white noise feels more ‘cyber punk’.

  • Facebook and advertising

    Two things got me thinking about Facebook and advertising this week. Since I have changed my location on my Facebook profile to Hong Kong the bulk of the adverts I have seen have been in Chinese. Now you could argue that the model should also look at the langauge I use for Facebook; but many people in Hong Kong are bilingual so there is a limited gain. Chinese language is fine, because they seem to be the same irrelevant stuff I got when my profile location was in the UK:

    • Credit cards
    • Mobile phones
    • Variants on the usual e-commerce model

    However the irrelevance of Facebook and advertising confronted me with this suggested post.
    WTF Facebook .jpg
    The additional problem that I have with this is that the big spenders of the advertising world like consumer packaged goods brands I’ve worked with would probably be leery about putting their advertisements next to one with a URL indicating likely adult content. It wouldn’t happen on Google because of the context dependent nature of the search page.

    The second thing was when I took time to reflect on the the BBC’s study into socio-economic classes in the UK. Here is some of the data:

    ‘Class’ Tend to socialize exclusively with people like themselves Percentage of UK population Average age
    Elites Yes 6 57
    Established middle class No 25 46
    Technical middle class Yes 6 52
    New affluent workers Yes 15 44
    Traditional working class Yes 14 66
    Emergent service workers No 19 34
    Precariat Yes 15 50

    This data was interesting to me, because it said that for a significant minority of the UK population (those with a wide range of friends), the Facebook model may be a logical fallacy.

    The precariat are the least economically active if we take them out of the equation the numbers change again:

    ‘Class’ Tend to socialize exclusively with people like themselves Percentage of UK population advertisers are likely to care about Average age
    Elite Yes 7.06 57
    Established middle class No 29.41 46
    Technical middle-class Yes 7.06 52
    New affluent workers Yes 17.65 44
    Traditional working class Yes 16.47 66
    Emergent service workers No 22.35 34

    When we look at two other factors the numbers become even more stark:

    Attribute Yes No
    Average age 54.75 40
    Percentage of the UK population 48.24 51.76

    So from a marketing point-of-view the friends model poses two problems: it appeals to consumers with a lower lifetime spend in them (this depends what you are selling) and you are addressing less than half the population you care about (and that includes bottom-feeding brands like pay-day loan companies).

    On the bright side as a marketer using Facebook in the UK you may be that bit closer to the old marketing conundrum attributed to William Lever, Viscount Leverhulme of Lever Brothers fame:

    I know which half of my advertising is working, I just don’t know which half.

    More information
    BBC – The Great British class calculator
    Why Facebook is a dead man walking
    Why Facebook is a dead man walking part II?
    Why Facebook is a dead man walking part 2.5?