Ged Carroll

Blog

  • Dealer chic

    If the working class and the lower middle class are worried about financial security with trends like extreme couponing; the upper-middle classes are also interested in the thrill of a good deal with the changing economic environment a distant secondary motivator. With this in mind Trendwatching talked about dealer chic; reading their profile its almost as if they are thinking about their lifestyle in business terms. Looking for:

    • Increased efficiency – getting more for less – the buzz of a bargain
    • Value add – provided primarily through an improved experience

    Dealer chic is supposed to be caused by a move towards perfect markets – the use of reviews and comparative pricing facilitated by the web parallels the kind of techniques that procurement professionals would use. It also echoes the promise of disintermediation that web 1.0 was supposed to bring use with the first generation of shopping comparison sites in the late 1990s

    A more worrying by-product of the dealer chic trend is that brands are increasingly commoditised and access to mobile devices have accelerated the consumer buying process by providing them with the necessary research and the opportunity for instant gratification – potentially having a micro-chunking time effect on the timings and tweaking of pricing strategies.

    It means that luxury goods are seen as an asset class. This will mean an acceleration in price appreciation, but in order for luxury brands to benefit they will need to get involved in running pre-owned platforms. They can add value in validating each and every item, for a commission. 

    The space won’t be uncontested. You have established players from eBay and Yahoo! Auctions to Japanese retail brands like Brand-Off are already in this space. The Japanese have built up a formidable opportunity

    More information

    Trendwatching | dealer chic – find out more about dealer chic and sign up for Trendwatching’s free email newsletters

  • Video futures

    Peter Jackson has been shooting a really interesting video diary for the forthcoming Hobbit two-part film. Whilst all the Tolkien geeks are pouring over it salivating at what they are going to spend their next ten year’s disposable income on, I was curious to know what it was likely to tell us about the future of video. Jackson heads up Weta Workshop and Weta Digital, constantly innovating in video production. Below is the first entry, it is worthwhile working through all of them

    • Technology still hasn’t addressed the need to shoot 3D in an elegant way. Much of this is down to the fact that the economics and scale that has driven semiconductor innovation hasn’t been replicated in other aspects of technology such as camera optics, so they use Heath Robinson-esque mirrored set ups to get around the interocular (replicate the distance between your eyes) distance issue
    • The amount of dedicated cameras that Jackson is having to use suggests that 3D product isn’t likely to come down in cost anytime soon; so we are still likely to have shoddy post-production versions plied on cinema audiences for a good while yet. I could see the demand for 3D dying out, at least until VR starts to make a serious impact on lean back experiences.
    • Higher frame rates make a difference. I hadn’t realised that the human eye can distinguish at up to the equivalent of 60 frames per second. Shooting at this speed makes imagery more believable. So we are more likely to go to 60fps 4K video than 24fps at 8K resolution.
    • Digital doesn’t mean perfect reproduction. If you’ve listened to an iPod versus a decent CD player; or a decent CD player versus a decent record player – it would be easy to understand this point; despite the historic branding as digital having a higher fidelity to the original. However it was still interesting to hear how the high quality digital cameras de-saturate the video and the make-up artists and set designers have to work hard to compensate for the colour loss on screen

    More related content, alongside other aspects of technology can be found here.

  • Optimising for platforms

    Optimising for platforms rather than clients and audiences. Three years ago I taught an interactive marketing module at the business school of a private university in Barcelona. It was a great experience presenting to a number of senior executives and up-and-coming talent from various parts of Spanish industry including advertising and interactive agencies. I ended up learning from them as much as they learned from me.

    One of the attendees talked about listening to what his clients wanted, but that he really focused on building sites that Google wanted him to build; when the client wishes and Google were in conflict, Google won out. At the time the phrase struck me as it illustrated the pinnacle of Google’s power on the internet.

    The internet maybe open, it may be based on standards which means that you can see broadly the same experience across different platforms and browser software; but that’s no good if no one ever sees you site, modern-day equivalent of the classic philosophical question:

    If a tree falls in a forest and no one is around to hear it, does it make a sound?

    However even if you don’t rank highly in Google, it can still be promoted in other ways. The other week I was at a conference when I heard one of the audience as a question about the wisdom of:

    Buiding a business in Mark’s house

    That is building a business on the Facebook eco-system. I was reminded of the earlier discussions I had in Barcelona around the power of Google.

    Facebook wasn’t a new idea, there have been social networks for as long as there has been the commercial internet.

    • The Well
    • AOL in some of its earliest incarnations as a BBS (bulletin board system) for Macintosh computers provided some of the functionality that Facebook pages and groups do now. AOL gave users 2MB to create their own personal presence on the web through a tool called Personal Publisher (it could be found with the keyword PP2 – it wasn’t called search back then) a kind of pre-Geocities.com page that does what your profile on Facebook does now
    • And if you enjoy Zynga’s Farmville or Cityville, these owe a huge debt to Lucasfilm’s Habitat developed by former Yahoo Randy Farmer and sat on the AOL platform some 25 years ago

    Many of the innovations that Facebook has since come out with like email and instant messaging, are features that AOL and others had since the internet first became popular. The contrast between the two is more about scale, whilst AOL was phenomenally popular with 30 million subscribers at its peak (who also paid for line access), and still reaches 112 million unique users on a monthly basis; but it was never omnipotent in the way that Facebook became.

    Facebook has an unsurpassed reach, kind of like a telephone directory for large swathes of the world – a de-facto real identity check. This powerful position is one that Clay Shirky says won’t be changed for the foreseeable future.

    You have to be on Facebook, even if you don’t engage with it (and engagement is something that Facebook seems having issues with for a good while).

    So businesses have gone to the logical step of building their web presence on a platform that they think is most consumers online homebase (as I read it described in Larry Weber’s Everywhere).

    So whilst Facebook may not control as much advertising budget as it likes; it wields a huge amount of consumer power and power over businesses that decide to use the social network as a platform – and that’s not likely to change any time soon.

    There are a number of factors to consider around Facebook:

    • Facebook abuses its position with consumers and I don’t need to discuss it here as it’s been well documented elsewhere already
    • Then there is the impermanence of web APIs, Nick Bradbury wrote a great post about this where he name-checked Facebook’s depreciated FBML, but to be fair, Google and Yahoo! have either changed the terms of APIs to make them less viable or got rid of them completely. So your platform may be here today gone tomorrow. From my experience, at the very least you are subject to browser compatibility problems and relatively high unpredictable down-times
    • It has become a crutch for marketing agencies in the way that the the answer to all consumer marketing used to be the 90-second television advertisement – I am surprised that so many brands are surrendering their reputation to Facebook given the concerns that had been voiced by marketers about Google’s power in recent times

    Marketers would be well advised to take a more pragmatic approach, think about where they are sending their traffic – who ‘owns’ the customer experience and take a portfolio or multi-channel approach to a campaign. More related content here.

    More information:

    Is it possible to replace Facebook? – interesting article by the research and development team at Norwegian state broadcaster NRK

    How Ford Blew It On Facebook | Advertising Age – why drive people via advertising to your Facebook page when you can drive them to your own property?

    The long-term failure of web APIs | Nick Bradbury

  • Extreme couponing

    Extreme couponing – is a phrase that I came across in the Knowledge@Wharton newsletter to describe the way hard-pressed value conscious consumers in North America are using offline vouchers and online resources including comparison shopping and coupon websites to make their grocery spend to go further. Having worked on FMCG programs rolled out in North America, the continued power of local newspaper and electronic coupons are famous.

    Coupons and extreme couponing were historically associated with thrifty older consumers who carried on family traditions developed during and post the great depression.

    Some US supermarket retailers built up a reputation for being ‘coupon friendly’ stores. But that might present its own problems. The average basket value might be much lower. Also the productivity of cashiers might be lower as they have to process all the coupons submitted. If the coupons aren’t valid for that supermarket that might result in a customer stand-off that needs to be resolved with the help of store management.

    The more astute of you may remember seeing coupon clipping and usage in historic episodes of Roseanne (what then become The Conners).

    Which begs the question what’s new that’s driving extreme couponing now? The answer seems to be a combination of food price inflation, low-to-no wage growth and an uncertain economy with high unemployment has led consumers to change their shopping. Pharmacy chains like Walgreens have benefited from business previously done as a one-stop shop in the supermarket since they will accept coupons for personal hygiene and cleaning products. The big issue is for the major brand companies like General Mills, Unilever and Procter & Gamble who are seeing brand loyalty eroded.

    Alongside an increase in coupon adoptions you are seeing bulk buying to hedge against inflation, rather than consumers trying to save the money itself in bank account. More retailing related content can be found here.

    More information

    Brand Disloyalty: Recession-weary Consumers Take Discounts to the Extreme

  • Sony Discman D-250

    When you think about the likes of the Sony Discman D-250 you need to realise what it was like growing up in the 1980s. It meant that personal music on the move was a ghetto-blaster perched on your shoulder annoying the neighbourhood or a Sony Walkman personal stereo. I was really fortunate in that I had a half decent Walkman WM-24 which whilst bulky gave half decent sound. It was more expensive looking than it actually was but the Dolby noise reduction made a big difference. This eventually died on me and I ended up with a more modern, but poorer quality Walkman WM-36.

    But a CD player was what you really wanted, for decent sound.
    Sony D-250 Discman
    I poured over the Sony catalogues working out which one I wanted (the Sony D-Z555) versus the best that I could afford (the Sony D-250). The Sony D-250 Discman was in Sony’s premium Discman range, featuring a pressed metal chassis and a NiCD rechargeable battery the size of a packet of Dentyne gum. Eventually the battery dying and my not being able to buy a replacement battery would see it do hi-fi duty. Portable music would have me use a Sony DCS901 Sports Discman. This also played CD-Rs full of MP3 files – it was my pre-iPod and had a battery life of almost 40 hours, but more of that another time.

    The Discman D-250 came with line-out connection for a hi-fi and you could attach a wired remote control. It could be programmed to random play, play tracks in a specific order and access CD ‘index marks’. These index marks put you to predefined points in a specific recording and at the time were only used in some classical recordings. As a standard it wasn’t widely supported but would have leant itself well to the mix CDs that started to come along a few years later from Mixmag Live.

    The CD has served me well as a player for my hi-fi system because of its rugged mechanicals and decent electronics long after I started using an iPod for portable music and its more sophisticated brother the D-Z555 is highly prized by hi-fi enthusiasts for the same reason, particularly as it featured a digital output as well.