Looking back to when I started this blog, it would have been reasonable to expect an inevitable march of retailing from offline to online. Amazon was on a tear and search advertising volumes were increasing year on year. By the time I was at Yahoo! search advertising (focused on online retailing) counted for about half of all revenue for the company.
At that time Yahoo! had a Spotify-like subscription streaming music service that was viewed as a threat to Apple’s iTunes download only offering. When I worked there Yahoo Music was the number one online music site in terms of audience reach and total time spent by consumers on the site. Also display advertising was much bigger for brands than it is today and Yahoo! was guaranteed a good share of the online marketing spend from any movie launch at the time.
The reality of online retailing, was slower than our expectations. While COVID drove an increase in online retailing there has also been corresponding innovations in retailing as well.
Amongst the pioneers in this change have been luxury brands like Burberry and Nike, who brought digital into their stores to provide a superior customer experience.
Adidas brought manufacturing into its stores with its speedfactory experiment, allowing for fast time to market and customisation.
Supreme changed the cadence of retailing with the Thursday morning ‘drop’ which saw queues outside stores. Every Thursday became a launch day as far as their customers where concerned. The queue has moved from Apple’s annual cadence, to every week.
I was thinking a lot about consumption when I came across the psychological concept of moral licensing. Doing something that is thought of as a good behaviour boosts the self image, leading to a sense of justification in a more indulgent behaviour later on.
It explains incongruity in human behaviours. One example that immediately came to mind when I first read about the concept of moral licensing occurred very early in my agency career.
Burger queen
The agency was one of an expanding number of American shops that had set up in London. I was a piss-poor excuse of client services person; but was widely read, had a sharp-thinking strategic head on my shoulders and sounded uncharacteristically authoritative in technology client presentations.
One of the London office’s senior executives was English but as part of their degree secondment had spent some time in the US. Later on, they were working in the Bay area on high technology and consumer brand accounts.
During that time, they became a Buddhist and were vegan except for the regular Big Mac meal in the office, or, going to and from a new business pitch.
Given that the global CEO functioned on sipping vodka out of a constantly topped up glass, with periodic runs to the local Starbucks for jolts of iced quadruple expressos, the Big Mac eating vegan behaviour was considered only mildly eccentric by comparison.
Wellness
While my burger queen experience is mildly amusing to recollect, moral licensing has a serious health and wellness impact. The consumer wellness market has a moral vocabulary that positions food as a “sinful” indulgence or a “purifying” virtue, and physical exercise as a moral redemption mechanism. This moral framing is a critical structural vulnerability. When wellness, nutrition, and wearable technology brands construct campaigns using moralised binaries, this trigger subconscious moral licensing.
Higher levels of moral licensing, self-licensing, or compensatory health beliefs (CHBs) are associated with elevated body weight (BMI), increased caloric intake, or heightened body image anxiety.
The fipside of this is the ‘health as an alibi’ for slim people who are often judged as excessively vain or narcissistic.
Finally research from North Caroline State University found that customer reward programmes drove long-term consumption habits. They that consumers who regularly purchased lower-calorie meals indulged more when reward opportunities occurred. They had a higher probability of trading rewards for indulgent high-calorie items and desserts. When questioned, they used their prior calorie dietary discipline to justify it.
Luxurious moral licensing
There is a well known link between relative preferences for luxury items and a previously expressed virtuous intent. This might be a donation of time or money to a charity allowing consumers to establish ‘moral’ credentials. An example that taps directly into this is Balenciaga‘s capsule collections that collaborate with the likes of the UN World Food Programme (WFP).
This boost to their virtuosity mitigates the negative feelings and anticipatory guilt typically associated with purchasing frivolous or expensive items. In research it is found to double consumer intent to purchase high-end consumer goods.
However moral licensing isn’t all plain sailing for luxury brands. There is a tension between luxury brand attributes of self-enhancement and status with moral licensing being related to self transcendence and altruism. Consumers experience the mismatch which negatively affects brand evaluation.
Moral licensing examples in advertising
Moral licensing is tapped into in indulgent advertising. A classic example is the current framing in Müller Corner yoghurts.
Moral licensing was leaned on very heavily during the golden age of TV advertising.
2025 started warmer, but windier than normal. I had just published a similar post and had a days break before thinking about drafting 2025 as it happened, how it was seen at the time tends to be missed out when we look back with the benefit of hindsight.
I haven’t written much about the Trump administration, mainly because everything kept changing, so it wasn’t apparent at the time what was really important. Every day felt like a burning platform.
January 2025
Small and medium sized business confidence at new low. Japanese convenience store operator Lawson used offshore workers to help customers via digital avatar. Chinese property developer VANKE CEO was detained to help authorities with their enquiries. VANKE, alongside Country Garden, is one of the better ran companies known for corporate transparency. Meanwhile Guangzhou FC (formerly Guangzhou Evergrande) was ejected from China’s professional football league. Amazon announced UK drone delivery service.
HSBC shut down their first attempt at competing in the ‘fintech’ space. Zing competed with Wise and Revolut in global money transfers.
Circana research found that GLP-1s weren’t responsible for long term sales declines in snacks and other consumer packaged goods sales.
Rolex raised their prices across their models by 1-to-3 percent. Louis Vuittonrevisited its 2003 collaboration with Takashi Murakami. LVMH Watch Week leaned hard into novelties and featured Bvlgari, Daniel Roth, Gérald Genta, Hublot, L’Epée 1839, Louis Vuitton, TAG Heuer, Tiffany & Co. and Zenith.
Porsche sales dropped, mostly due to 28% drop in China during 2024. Louis Vuitton launched an early 2000s streetwear throwback for its autumn / winter 2025 collection by Nigo and Pharrell Williams.
While generation cohorts are no better than horoscopes, they have prominence in marketing discourse; Gen Beta started. Publicis Worldwide & Leo Burnett merged to form Leo. Kellogg’s returned to British TV screens with mascot Cornelius the Cockrel in the ad ‘See you in the morning’.
51% say that overall, they like the ad, while only 26% disliked it. That’s a good score, you’d expect an average campaign to roughly take 40% like to 20% dislike.
UK institution, the BBC shipping forecast turned 100. Half of banned UK crypto ads remained online.
The earliest iterations of cartoon characters Popeye and Tintin went into the public domain in the U.S – but his likeness and name is still trademarked. STEM content creator Zara Dar made 3x more revenue per video on Pornhub vs. YouTube.
State laws based on Louisiana’s Act 440 require age verification for adult entertainment sites. In response, Pornhub’s parent company, Aylo, had blocked access in 20 states. This included Florida, a major centre for porn production. Meta launched machine learning powered accounts, it wasn’t well received. Meta pivoted from fact checking to be more combative with the EU, Brazil and China.
Some US TikTok users signed up to Chinese Instagram analogue Xiaohongshu in protest to TikTok restrictions.
Why did the US take action against TikTok? Rutgers University affiliated research from 2023 was the best public reason given. TikTok returned in one news cycle thanks to President Trump’s patronage.
Donald J. Trump became U.S. president again as typhoon-speed winds drove fires in Los Angeles.
Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau resigned. Edelman’s trust barometer survey marked new societal nadir with a crisis of grievance.
Oliviero Toscani, the photographer behind Bennetton’s iconic advertising campaigns and work in the fashion label’s COLORS magazine died.
Film director David Lynch died.
Over the past decade ‘children’s cafeterias‘ which offer free or low-cost meals have grown in Japan from a standing start to over 10,000 venues. (Similar to the UK’s food bank expansion.) 2025 saw 1,794 cafeterias open.
The majority of cafeterias have no age restrictions. Out of an estimated total 18.9 million annual users, 70%, or 13 million, were children while the other 30% (5.9 million) were adults.
Across Asia and in diaspora communities around the world, the lunar new year was welcomed in on January 29th. In the Chinese horoscope, it was the year of the wood snake.
Cellular mobile services in UK turn 40. UK government announced improved atomic clock that will help in more precise, jam-proof navigation. CES was all about generative AI. OpenAI continued to lose money on ChatGPT. Irrational exuberance in LLMs deflated by popularity of DeepSeek.
How January 2025 memed
Streetwear’s pivot to avant garde all-black influenced by Rick Owens and Raf Simons with dark eye shadow, was popularised by hip-hop and trap artists out of Atlanta. Playboi Carti was associated with the look. The look got a name inspired by Carti’s Opium record label – opiumcore. Jing Daily claimed that gender fluidity and opiumcore looks were going to trend in China luxury and streetwear.
It’s at odds with Chinese government guidance. They deplatformed ‘excessively feminine’ male models and those who ‘slavishly worship’ western culture. Even opiumcore’s name is problematic.
February 2025
Donald Trump tariffs announced against Canada, China and Mexico. Samsung head Lee Jae-yong cleared of fraud and stock manipulation charges. Clothing store Forever21 went bankrupt again. Bybit had $1.5Bn of etherium stolen from its ‘offline’ cold wallet – biggest crypto theft to date. Nike collaborates with Skims. Unilever changes their CEO.
Robert F Kennedy Jr promised to ‘Make America Healthy Again” or MAHA, crystalised the name of a movement that brought together wellness and the political right.
Language learning company Duolingo, shared their new brand book, which was held up as an example of how to capture a brand’s culture, positioning and market proposition. Liverpool Football Club refreshed their brand identity. R3 published their 2024 new business league table. Key takeaways:
Interpublic lost 500,000 USD in business more than they won, what they won in creative, they lost in media.
Fuji TV screens tentpole anime show Sazae-sanwithout sponsorships, an advertising boycott over a sexual assault allegation cover-up. Lidl sold out its TikTok shop debut in 20 minutes. Post-production and video FX business Technicolor shut down.
Simon Kemp launched this year’s Digital 2025 compendium of global online behaviours. YouTube turned 20 on Valentine’s Day. Cory Doctorow’s Pluralistic turned five.
David Webb announced plans for the end of his iconic financial website which covered the Hong Kong market. Webb was in the final stages of his battle with cancer. Fiverr launched FiverrGo – a generative AI art-working service.
Taiwanese TV actress Barbie Hsu (pronounced Shu) died aged 48. Hsu was a popular actress across East and South East Asia. The Democratic Party in Hong Kong disbanded.
HKTaxi – which pioneered taxi-hailing apps in Hong Kong, announced April closure. The Washington Post alleged UK government demanded global backdoor on Apple services. Apple removed protected cloud encryption from UK users. Humane AI has its intellectual property bought by HPE. Humane is shuttered including its AI pin device. Apple launched its iPhone 16e, it featured Apple’s first custom wireless modem. Amazon announced closure of messaging and video app Chime. Promised to continue supporting the Chime SDK, which allows the underlying messaging and video service to be integrated directly into apps. Microsoft announced Skype service closure.
How February 2025 memed?
Credit due to Dan Lambden: *LinkedInsincerity (noun)*: A phenomenon observed on LinkedIn characterised by interactions that appear inauthentic, exaggerated, or lacking genuine sincerity.
These interactions may include overly enthusiastic endorsements, insincere congratulatory messages, and inflated descriptions of professional achievements, often driven by the desire to network or gain visibility rather than foster true professional connections. In essence, LinkedInsincerity represents the façade of professionalism masked by the pursuit of personal gain.
March 2025
March started with cold sunny days and the first snowdrops in the park by my house.
But in comparison to the weather, economic indicators weren’t great. Hong Kong slowed down its retail sales decline. HSBC celebrated the 160th anniversary of its founding.
Launched in 1953, JCB built their 1,000,000th backhoe loader. Volkswagen announced move away from touchscreen-only car controls. AstraZeneca bought cell therapy company esoBiotec. 23andMe declared bankrupt.
Going upmarket, Moët & Chandon & Pharrell Williams collaborated on a €30,000 limited edition champagne bottle. It was to demonstrate ‘ collective spirit, optimism and human connection’. Lewis Hamilton became a Lulu Lemon ambassador. Willy Chavarria collaborated with Tinder on a small collection with the theme ‘How we love is who we are’. Rolex opened London flagship managed by Watches of Switzerland. Maker’s Mark launched Fielden Rye whisky – their first new recipe in 70 years.
Starbucks launched a collaboration with Snoopy to reboot sales.
In media, Sesame Street started shooting its 56th season. But had no distribution partner in place. Yahoo! sold TechCrunch to private equity buyer. The Federal Trade Commission looked into Omnicom’s takeover of Interpublic. Apple loses $1 billion / year on streaming. Medical drama Grey’s Anatomy turns 20 years old. The Grateful Dead celebrated their 60th anniversary with a 60 CD boxset Enjoying The Ride featured live sets recorded from 1969 to 1994.
In online, old was gold as Yahoo! turned 30 and has enjoyed a mild comeback. (Disclosure, I worked there earlier on in my career.) Digg relaunch announced. Discord planned for IPO.
Manus, a Chinese ‘general AI agent’ launched beta release that outperformedOpenAI. Deliveroo announced plan to exit Hong Kong operations in April.
Mobile World Congress saw Xiaomi & Realme show concept smartphones with detachable lens. Apple delayed more personalised aspects of Siri in its Apple Intelligence rollout. Alphabet bought security start-up Wiz for $32Bn. Microsoft turned 50 years old. Oracle systems were breached and health records stolen.
In other news, Japan marked 30 years since the Tokyo subway sarin attacks. Author and former KGB officer Oleg Gordievsky died. Irish crime fiction author Ken Bruen died.
How March 2025 memed?
Geopolitical disruption: The Daily Star is a UK tabloid newspaper with a right of centre, populist editorial voice. It would be a natural ally of the Trump administration; yet the headline on front page of the paper was ‘JD Dunce‘ on the March 5th, edition.
Research firm YouGov showed a sharp decline in how UK people saw the US.
April 2025
The end of March 2025 was the height of sakura season in Japan and in the UK. The sun greeted the start of April, so did the Trump administration with global tariffs in ‘Liberation Day‘ announcement.
Another thing went up in the US as well as tariffs, preventable disease-related deaths. Pertussis (whooping cough) and measles increased in US compared to last year. Pertussis infections doubled, measles infections grew even more. Spain and Portugal suffered countrywide electricity blackouts.
The US National Science Foundation got rid of most external advisory panels and the FDA announced move to phase out animal testing.
On a lighter note another thing going viral was pistachio cream filled chocolate.
At Watches & Wonders, Rolex launched the Land Dweller, a watch design that is similar in concept to the Oysterquartz, Audemars Piguet Royal Oak and the Vacheron Constantine Overseas. Just as important was the new high-beat movement design rolled out in the Land Dweller. Prada bought Versace. LVMH fashion and leather goods sales fell 5% year-on-year. Added to luxury sector woes were Chinese factories claiming to offer consumers better deals on luxury goods by going direct. One bright note – Highsnobriety found that 40% of American respondents found that sustainable fashion was fashionable. This compared to just 25% of young people (gen-z) globally.
Advertising Week Europe was held in London. Key topics of discussion included retail media and connected TV from Uber, Carwow and Disney. Adobe provided generative AI designed conference bags. UK marketing spend fell for first time in four years. Hostess Brands became first mainstream brand to promote their products on April 20th – informally 4.20 day that celebrated cannabis use. McVities celebrated the 100th anniversary of the chocolate digestive and Wired magazine celebrated the 30th anniversary of its original website.
Bluesky announced its plans to verify accounts. Nike sued over the closure of its NFT business.
In other news, it was 50 years since the end of the Vietnam war. Reggae star Max Romeo died in Jamaica, Pope Francis died in Rome and it was the 100th anniversary of The Great Gatsby by F Scott Fitzgerald. Fitzgerald’s ending to the novel was widely quoted and captured the zeitgeist of April 2025 well.
“They were careless people . . . they smashed up things and creatures and then retreated back into their money or their vast carelessness, or whatever it was that kept them together, and let other people clean up the mess they had made.”
I had started a project engagement at Google. This was 20 years to the day when I started my in-house gig at Yahoo! less “plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose” more “history doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes”.
The Apple iPad turned 15 and AirTags turned 4 years old.
How April 2025 memed?
An article in WARCcaptured April’s mood for me with the acronym VUCA. The phrase has its origin in the US Army War College during the mid-1980s, who were looking to describe a post-cold war scenario.
Volatility: Rapid significant change with little to no warning as to the size of change.
Uncertainty: Unclear outcomes as are the causes.
Complexity: Multiple factors in play with complex inter-related aspects to them which makes finding a way forward challenging.
Ambiguity: the information that is available is open to misinterpretation.
May 2025
May started with the warmest day of the year, 26 celsius in London.
Warren Buffett announced plan to retire from Berkshire Hathaway. The UK and US outline shape of a limited trade agreement. The CIA launched a high production value ad campaign on western social media to recruit Chinese agents.
CNBC’s Jim Cramer celebrated 20 years of his Mad Money show. While 2024 was was the year of semaglutide, Novo Nordisk seemed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. It was still a surprise when Lars Fruergaard Jørgensen stepped down as CEO. Unilever discovered a correlation between a particular type of skin microbiome bacteria and positive mental health measures. Consumer DNA testing company 23andMe was sold to Regeneron.
Alex Mashinsky sentenced to 12 years for fraud related to 2023 collapse of cryptocurrency business Celsius.
Monocle announced a new book shop and café in Paris. Business Insider laid off over 20% of staff and announced shift to AI. Amazon announced Prime Day to be held in July and did its first brand refresh in two decades. Google refreshed the big G icon. Mozilla announced closure of bookmarking service Pocket. Wikipedia took five years to go from six million articles to seven million around May 28, 2025. DoorDash agreed to buy Deliveroo. Hong Kong congee restaurant chain Ocean Empire closed down abruptly. Nutella announced a new peanut-based variant.
Dior Coutureadmitted a successful cyber attack. US telecoms company Charter announced it was buying Cox Communications.
McDonald’s Restaurants saw a decline in sales. This was down to low income consumers spending less, while middle class earners still weren’t going into McDonalds. Normally when there is a recession, McDonalds should benefit from the more well-off trading down to McDonalds. Instead, fortunes have diverged into a ‘k-shaped’ recession. Lower income earners are hit, while middle classes aren’t. What Axios called the ‘McRecession‘.
How May 2025 memed?
The conclave to select a new Pope shined a light on all things Vatican related. President Trump got in on the act via his social media feed. Robert Provost was elected pope in a relatively fast conclave. His election surprised prediction markets. Recent film Conclave became a must-watch film as it was a good guide to the process of electing a new Pope.
June 2025
June started with changeable spring-like weather with rain from London to Tokyo. The UK government published its Strategic Defence Review. A Ukrainian operation destroyed Russian aircraft deep inside Russia using small drones concealed in containers. Israel launched attacks on Iran.
CEO Mark Read announced he was leaving WPP at end of 2025. Apple’s ‘Shot on an iPhone’ campaign won at Cannes. Apple launched a new ‘shot on an iPhone’ film featuring Stormzy.
US Vogue editor Anna Wintour moved to more hands-off role as chief content officer at Condé Nast.
Unilever bought ‘chemical-free’ direct-to-consumer men’s personal care brand Dr Squatch for $1.5Bn. UK discounter Poundland was sold for a pound.
Hong Kong legalised basketball betting by Hong Kong Jockey Club. This will attract mainland gamblers where basketball has a huge following in comparison to soccer or horse racing. Asian currency arbitrage opportunity indicated a problem in US finances.
Bill Atkinson who was part of the original Mac and General Magic teams died, as did soundtrack composer Lalo Schifrin.
Meanwhile Apple’s WWDC felt like Mac-orientated conferences of years long past. AI was sprinkled in features with a focus on on-device AI models. Oakley and Meta collaborated on smart glasses. Flickr roles out creative commons 4, giving creators greater control over their image rights.
Chart of the month June 2025
Podcast advertising showed signs of maturing with slowing growth according to WARC.
How June 2025 memed? – TACO
From US foreign policy to trade negotiations the TACO trade dominated. TACO was shorthand for ‘Trump always chickens out’ – markets bet against the Trump administration’s commitment to a course of action – which starts to become a dangerous bet to make when this viewpoint becomes sufficiently visible. OperationMidnight Hammer being the exception that proved the rule.
July 2025
July started off with a heatwave. The Big, Beautiful bill passed in the US senate and congress. In the UK, on of the biggest things that happened in 2025 was that 16 and 17 year olds got the right to vote. The Communist Party of China turned 104, the United States celebrated its 250th anniversary of its founding. It was the 40th anniversary of Live Aid – so Live Aid was the equivalent distance in time from us to what the end of the second world war was to Live Aid.
Perplexity AI touted a nascent advertising offering around media agencies. Chinese multi-modal AI model Kimi launched. One of the more interesting aspects was the ability to upload up to 50 documents for reference. But it didn’t deliver as well as promised, I will let the Web Curios newsletter tell you the rest:
…when I played with it earlier this week it quickly became apparent that this is a mendacious little fcuk and will spit out completely-invented material with a glee unmatched by any of the actual, paid-for, top-end models; as such I can only recommend it as a fun thing to poke around with rather than a free alternative to the big players.
Apple supported the cinema launch of its film F1, with a haptic trailer, which used the vibrating motor on the smartphone alongside the speakers. The film did well at the cinema, so Apple bid for formula 1 streaming rights in the US.
K-pop band BTS announced return with news music and global tour. The Observer laid bare lies and deceit behind bestseller The Salt Path. Media executive Linda Yaccarino resigned from Twitter (X).
In the same way that in the mid-1990s onwards to 2000, the internet became part of culture as much as a technology people used, AI has been having a similar movement since 2023 onwards. When you combine AI with highly memetic training content and accidents ensue, so it was with Grok AI becoming ‘Mechahitler‘ and edgelords around the world rejoiced in their childhood bedroom or parent’s basement. Grok is considered to be an AI without a ‘woke ideology’.
Grok didn’t magic the name ‘Mechahitler’ out of thin air, it is a character from the Wolfenstein series of games based on various alternative history scenarios of world war two. It’s emulated by cosplayers and a film had been in development for over a decade.
Mechahitler as a meme beat out BURRITO – Bold Unilateral Retaliation Regardless of Inflation Trade or Order, which came from the TBOY podcast.
August 2025
July bowed out wetter and cooler than much of the month and August opened with winds that made it feel more like spring. It was the 80th anniversary of the atomic bomb attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki and the 250th anniversary of Daniel O’Connell. Indonesians protested their government by flying the pirate flag from manga and anime franchise One Piece.
Vogue saw an online backlash against its first AI model photo shoot. A French livestreamer died live on broadcast – in a manner eerily reminiscent of the David Cronenberg’s Videodrome.
Adidaslaunched a collaborative sneaker with Lufthansa. The Ford Transit celebrated its 60th birthday. Nike leans into its ACG technical outdoor brand to drive growth. Seiko celebrated 60 years of making dive watches in a low-key manner with enthusiasts. McDonald’s in Thailand allegedly demanded damages and fired a restaurant manager for having previously been a go-go dancer – who was pictured on her former bar’s social media. It wasn’t clear if it was a franchisee or the Thai McDonald’s partner McThai Co. Ltd who was involved.
Intel CEO was asked to resign by The White House because of his ‘connections‘ to China. Later on the US government takes a stake in Intel. The Pakistani energy sector suffered from renewed cyber attacks.
https://flic.kr/p/2rmo6o8
NASA Jim Lovell who was famous for being part of Project Apollo died.
How August 2025 memed?
In the same way that Che Guevara was a touchstone for rebellion against established authority in the 20th century – the internet has found its own icon. Ibrahim Traore is a coup leader and Burkinese army officer. Traore has become famous beyond the Francophone region, becoming an icon for protestors from Micronesia to the New Zealand Parliament.
September 2025
Autumn weather started in the last week of August, with the rain arriving too late to help out arable farmers in the home counties.
China, Russia and India met as part of the SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organisation).
China and Russia sign an initial agreement to develop a new high capacity gas line called Spirit of Siberia 2. Oracle’s Larry Ellison becomes the world’s richest man.
ITV celebrated its 70th birthday. Long time online blogging service Typepad closed down. Online news aggregator Techmeme turned 20. Google Docs turns 20 and Google Chrome browser market share exceeds 70 percent. AOL discontinued dial-up internet services in the US and Canada and was put up for sale for $1.5 billion. That’s still less than $1.50 for every disk and CD that AOL ever sent out to consumers in the US and Europe. The UK security services launched the Silent Courier portal to aid leaks by Russian and Chinese sources. Mastodon launched new services for corporates and marketers. Specialist interest online video networks Playeur and History of Weapons and War (think History Channel meets YouTube documentaries) both closed down, subscription based video platforms are hard.
Apple continued to lose key engineers to Meta and launch iPhones. Training LLMs sloppily in one aspect of their roles can make their behaviour malicious in other areas. Chinese company makes world’s fastest production car.
Concerns about an AI bubble started to show up in rate of change in search volume.
In the face of smartphone bans, American school children dug out iPods, Discmans and Walkmans to still have music while they study or just hang out in class. The UK government tested its emergency alerts system prompting a siren sound and this screen shots on smartphones across the country. There was no corresponding SMS text message to feature phones.
Ron Carroll, a Chicago-based singer, producer songwriter died leaving a body of house music behind. Italian film actress Claudia Cardinale died, she was famous for Fellini’s 8 1/2 and Leone’s Once Upon a Time In The West. Giorgio Armani died a week after his last interview with the FT was published. Robert Redford died aged 89, a day after the FT wrote a style article about the tweed blazer he wore in Three Days of The Condor. It didn’t take long for some wags to talk about the ‘curse of the FT’. Yahoo! News covered off Redford’s ‘role‘ in the nod of approval GIF, which made me a bit sad, given for many people that clip of Jeremiah Johnson was all they’d seen of his career as an actor / director.
How September 2025 memed?
Operation ‘Raise The Colours’ saw St George’s flags spring up across England from homes and lamp posts to painted roundabouts. Whilst many of the displays were well meaning, the initative was apparently driven by far right groups. This seemed to be designed to build momentum for a Tommy Robinson rally in London.
October 2025
There was a downpour overnight as September rolled into October. The Labour Party conference had finished, leader Kier Starmer had historically low approval ratings. Storm Amy hit the UK that weekend. Britain lost control of its borders. Data analysed by David Webb showed that Hong Kong had a revenue problem from tax avoidance / evasion of tobacco products. The cause was less clear, it may be cross-border shopping trips, smuggling gangs or more likely both. Webb’s website was shut down on Hallowe’en.
Barclays bought US consumer loans business Fresh Egg.
The FT claimed that the UK government demanded a backdoor to British user data. The Labour Party conference had finished. Ireland elected a new president in a process marred by a large amount of spoiled votes and low turnout. Scandal dogged Labour decision to abandon China spy case – or as former British ambassador with Chinese experience put it ‘appeasement’ and a ‘masterclass in ineptitude’. Chinese conglomerate BYD sells record number of electric cars in UK as Jaguar Land Rover flounders from cyberattack by suspected ‘state actor‘. Mercedes Vision Iconic concept car unveiled in Shanghai, looked like the vehicle the relaunched Jaguar brand would want to build. The grill design mimicked a vintage Mercedes 600 ‘Grosser’ and was a world away from the current nadir of the car brand.
Apple released upgrades of three products with its M5 processor. LVMH offered hope of business growth. Adidas unveiled its football for the next world cup called Trionda which looked like a shanzhai Poké Ball (used for catching and storing Pokemon). Toyota won its ninth manufacturers championship competing in the FIA WRC (world rally championship). 2025 marked their fourth back-to-back championship win.
Indonesia blocked TikTok and then unblocked it when the platform provided user information. Analytics suggested the world usage of social media may have peaked. Amazon hit 200 million US shoppers using Prime. Alphabet celebrated the 25th anniversary of Google Ads.
OpenAI had teething troubles while developing a new consumer hardware product, and seemingly does deals with everyone for $1 trillion+ of infrastructure – by mid-October it’s easier to list who they hadn’t done a deal with. By the end of October, OpenAI announced for-profit business. Concerns about an AI economic bubble became mainstream. EU looked to promote AI digital sovereignty. Amazon Web Services had an outage, Gigabrain announced the shutdown of their Reddit search tool and pivot to Aire AI video. NHS announced major productivity benefits from Microsoft Copilot trial.
Palantir CTO Shyam Sankar criticised Jensen Huang and Nvidia (at the head of a vanguard of large American multinationals) on their continued investment in China. The title was subsequently changed on the digital edition of the op-ed in the Wall Street Journal to a more generic ‘Why the China Doves Are Wrong.’
Actress and director Diane Keaton died leaving behind a diverse body of film and TV work. I thought her role in The Little Drummer Girl is her most underrated performance.
How October 2025 memed?
My favourite one of the five ‘core’ trends Jing Daily on Chinese social media ‘fits’ was goblincore.
The name tells you everything that you need to know. The looks seems to be inspired by video games and cosplay that borrows heavily from Tolkien, who in turn borrowed from European folklore.
Escapism with a hint of darkness made a good deal of sense in a time of high youth unemployment, economic uncertainty and technological upheaval in China.
November 2025
The end of October was wet and blustery. The Economist came out and said that western government debt was at levels unseen since Napoleonic times. Donald Trump threatened to sue BBC. Vaping overtook smoking in the UK. Starbucks sold the majority of its China operations to a local private equity investor. Sony launched a cheaper Japan-only Playstation 5. Funko announced that it would struggle to continue as a going concern due to its high debt level. Celebrations for the 85th anniversary of Bruce Lee got underway.
Palantir had great sales results, but spooked investors. Microsoft admitted that its efforts to build out computing power for LLMs was limited by access to data centre electrical power.
Some of the major studios in the porn industry including Aylo who runs Pornhub came together to establish a code of conduct. Why now? China’s equivalent to Grindr have been withdrawn from local app stores.
Shein keelhauled by the French government due to it selling ‘child like’ sex dolls online. Israel gets rid of Chinese cars in its vehicle fleet as it can’t the vehicles against espionage. An executive at L3Harris was jailed for selling secrets to the Russians. BYD announced UK launch date for Porsche 911 rival.
RTÉannounced a new daytime line-up for its week day daytime programming on RTÉ Radio 1 to take it through the end of 2025 onwards. Christmas advertising arrived even earlier than last year. WARC claim that advertisers were following consumers who were starting Christmas shopping research earlier. John Lewis’ effort seemed to be a ‘homage’ to the imagery of Charlotte Wells’ film Aftersun. Nick Asbury wrote the best (all be it over the top) analysis of the advert.
Early research on generative AI produced ad creative had lessons on the best approaches to get effective creative. IPG UK revenue dropped 8.4% quarter-on-quarter in advance of its purchase by Omnicom. Omnicom completed purchase of IPG, a critic described the deal as ‘two drunks leaning on a lamp post‘.
Nigo’s streetwear brand Human Madelisted on the Tokyo Stock Exchange.
Private equity company Vista claimed job cuts were due to AI automating tasks. One in five UK companies expected to follow Vista’s example in 2026. Law firm Clifford Chance let go of 10% of back office staff due to automation and offshoring.
Wang Fuk Court in Tai Po caught fire with the flames spreading from tower-to-tower. The whole of Hong Kong went into mourning. At least 146 people lost their lives. The Chinese government was concerned that the tragedy might spark protests.
How November 2025 memed?
6-7 featured ambiguously on a rap track and was then picked up by teens to mean everything and nothing.
December 2025
The US government published their 2025 National Security Strategy on The Whitehouse website. December started off with rain and Omnicom-IPG related firings playing out in near real-time on Reddit. The share price was up 0.14% by the close of the market in New York. More job cuts were expected as Omnicom hadn’t reorganised its own portfolio of agencies. A presentation that captured the zeitgeist of social media marketing for 2025 was published.
Jimmy Lai, who founded Giordano and The Apple Daily was convicted on two counts of conspiracy to collude with foreign powers and one count of conspiracy to publish seditious materials. The UK government response was weak, the US one slightly stronger.
UK consumer spending dropped at fastest rate in four years. UK arms of discount supermarket brands Aldi and Lidl sold Christmas vegetables including brussels sprouts, turnips, carrots, parsnips and potatoes for 8 pence / bag, (or 84 – 94% discount).
WARC has research to show that global advertising spend is growing faster than the economy – but that incremental gain is accruing only to the major online platforms.
Prada closes its acquisition of Versace. Nike announced more changes in the boardroom. Superdry and Nike got called out for greenwashing claims. Toyota launched the GR GT sports car. Unilever ice cream spin-out ousted independent board chairwoman of Ben & Jerry’s.
Netflix moved forward with a $72 billion bid for Warner Studios and HBO Max. Paramount intervened. Vanity Fair ran a tell-all interview with The White House chief-of-staff. President Trump’s defamation lawsuit against the BBC moved forward.
Facebook sunset Messenger apps for Windows and macOS. PayPal applied to become a bank. The Pax Silica Declaration was signed by nine nations—the United States, Japan, South Korea, Singapore, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, Israel, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Australia to bolster the semiconductor supply chain from Chinese pressure.
How 2025 memed?
YouTuber This is Antwon nailed in his description of the year as The Slop Era to capture how generative AI had captured culture in a similar manner to all things internet in culture from about 1994 onwards as the dotcom era kicked off through to the millennial bust.
404 Media discussed the phenomenon at SxSW, specifically why slop content happens.
Much of it was created by more technically-oriented people in the Philippines, the Middle East or South Asia who were looking to go viral. The reason why they did it was not to become famous per se but to gain vitality and get paid by Facebook’s creator programme.
In essence, the slop wasn’t for you or me, but designed to directly target the algorithm and then the creator gets a small share of the subsequent ad revenue. The model worked as a side hustle only because venture-backed AI models are providing a surplus of free tokens to these creators through farmed trial accounts.
By October, ‘AI slop’ was used as a pejorative for any artwork developed with the help of generative AI including a large public art mural in Chicago.
The FT worried about what it was doing to our online experience and work lives.
I have finished my strategy engagement at Google’s internal creative agency and am now taking bookings for strategic engagements. I can start immediately – keep me in mind; or get in touch for discussions on permanent roles. Contact me here.
Another year, another macOS. Tahoe is sensibly unambitious but it has raised some ire amongst Mac users. You can tell how unambitious Tahoe was, when CNET had to do an article showing you how common app icons have changed because you otherwise probably didn’t notice. I know I didn’t.
Tahoe is neither here nor there as a release for me. I haven’t found features that are ‘can’t live without”. The app interface changes feel different for the sake of being different, but I quickly got used to them.
In terms of quality it still feels a bit ‘beta’-ish but I hope that the bugs get ironed out over time.
The pop-up window to select my accent over the ‘o’ in my given name gets blanked out for some reason.
When performing certain actions, the browser chrome all turns white.
Otherwise things have been fine so far. My anti-virus of choice launched an update soon after Tahoe came out. As has my VPN client and numerous utilities and apps that I use for work, or just keeping my Mac tuned up.
I have a Brother mono laser printer to connect up, (as my long-suffering HP unit finally gave up the ghost after a decade of service,) which might be a bit of a trial if Reddit is anything to judge by.
Last Week on My Mac: Tahoe’s elephant – The Eclectic Light Company – this critique points out the kind of issues with Tahoe that implies it isn’t the Macintosh operating system of Steve Jobs with its historic focus on art principles and typography right from the beginning.
Dutch seizure of chipmaker followed US ultimatum over Chinese chief | FT – the judgement paints a bit more of a nuanced picture with two independent actions. It also explicitly states that the government order is not final yet (and at that point would still be open to appeals). The actual matter involved is a (significant) breach of fiduciary duty by Zhang Xuezheng and the holding company (Yuching). Cited issues were:
Placing of orders to another Wingtech subsidiary in China (that is in financial trouble) far exceeding demand (such that the expectation is that a significant share of the stock would need to be scrapped as it would not be able to be used in time)
Replacing 3 people with banking authority (including the CFO) with 3 other people, without financial background, one not an employee of Nexperia at all. All in the context where urgent US sanctions mean that independence from China is important for continued operations of the company. The court called this “Voor een onderneming van de orde van grootte van Nexperia grenst een dergelijke handelswijze aan roekeloosheid” (“For a company in the order of size of Nexerperia these actions border on being reckless”).
For the replacement no motivation was provided, prompting the chief financial officer and the chief legal officer from their own fiduciary duties as directors to object (and also to ask the court to investigate/intervene)
Stated intent to dismiss existing directors (without motivation) or asking for mandatory consultation from the workers council.
As to the decisions:
Suspension of Xuezheng as director/CEO
Temporary appointment of a new non-executive director (with power to make final decisions)
Place all (except 1) share under management/safekeeping with a lawyer
This all motivated by (very) signifcant breach of the fiduciary duty, not based upon an Dutch government action. The application of the Entity list on Nexperia as subsidiary was a significant contextual driver though (as in the duty to minimize corporate risks).
Anime activism – Matt Alt’s Pure Invention – I didn’t realise that in 1978 the president Marcos of the Philippines had banned a whole genre of anime (giant robots or mecha) due to the influence of Voltes V on Filipino student activists.
In the current climate of staff cuts, lingering threats of AI replacing the workforce and agencies dealing with economic constraints, late working – and the chance of burnout – continues to be a risk.
Shrinking teams can potentially lead to more demands being placed on remaining employees. WPP and Interpublic each cut thousands of staff from their global workforces in the first half of 2025, on top of headcount reductions in 2024. Last year, the collective global headcount across the “big six” holding companies declined by 1.6%, the first fall since the post-pandemic rebuild.
Spotify’s marketing team developed a creative production pipeline that could generate and deploy ad creatives to marketing channels based on listening habits in a geographic region. The problem they encountered was that they were generating creatives from a high-cardinality dataset, and the number of variations they were uploading to their channels was overwhelming those channels’ ability to optimize ads effectively.
Spotify’s solution was to build a pre-ranking algorithm using XGBoost that would determine which creatives to upload to the channels. Their ML pre-ranking model outperformed a simple heuristic model, with 4%-14% lower CPRs and 11%-12% higher CTRs. The ML model utilized a rich set of features to predict sub_percentage (the percentage of contributed subscriptions from the artist) and relative_cps_ratio (the share of the artist’s cost per subscription in the marketing campaign) for premium subscriptions, whereas the heuristic model used three fixed features. The model is retrained daily based on a defined lookback window.
Moreover, although this was deployed before ATT, the team found that ATT didn’t impact its performance, as training relied on aggregated data.
This obviously remains a relevant issue as advertisers scale the volume of their creative production through generative tools. While this pre-dates Meta’s Andromeda initiative for pre-ranking, it’s still likely relevant for most other channels (and, depending on the volume of creative uploaded, Meta).
Perplexity Pauses New Advertising Deals to Reassess Ambitions | AdWeek – brands are rethinking how to spend their budgets. Chan said many advertisers are moving away from performance-focused, traditional search and towards top-of-funnel brand awareness—an area Perplexity may pursue down the line.
Note: CIRP estimates the number of individual Amazon shoppers who use Amazon Prime. That includes multiple family members for many subscribers, so this estimate is higher than the number of US households that pay for an Amazon Prime membership.
Amazon knows the difference between Prime shoppers and paid Prime member households, so as US Prime membership approaches its limit, there may be a growing focus on bringing those numbers closer together. Amazon does not want to reduce the number of Amazon Prime membership users, but it certainly would not mind having more paid memberships associated with them. We expect Amazon to continue its efforts to attract members by emphasizing the benefits of Prime, rather than policing shopping and limiting Prime membership sharing.
CIRP estimates 200 million US Amazon customers had a Prime membership as of the September 2025 quarter. That is an increase of about 6% from 189 million US Amazon Prime members in the September 2024 quarter and up very slightly from our 198 million member estimate last quarter.
Motorsport fandom is strange. Back when I was a child motorsport fandom was a bunch of anoraks – literally. There was a category of clothing that you could buy from mail order catalogues and retailers like Demon Tweeks called a rally jacket. This was a coat good enough to deal with some cold wet weather branded by a car company or a tobacco brand.
Motorsport fandom, in particular single-seater race series are starting to see very different types of fans who learned their supporting ideas from the K-pop armies which are a symbiot of the artist promotion machine. While both promotion machine and fans are separate with very different tactics, they were united by a common goal to a point.
This isn’t the first time that media has brought in new fans, gaming created fans in the past. But the current motorsport fandom is interesting because of the cultural friction that it brings for drivers and legacy fans. From hate campaigns and death threats against drivers to ‘idol’ style objectification – women are demonstrating traits that would define toxic masculinity. All wrapped up in pastel tinted social media posts and Etsy products – so that makes it all fine, doesn’t it?
WPP has its next CEO – but what do clients make of heir apparent? – It’s not indifference. It’s pragmatism. Marketers like this don’t want to buy into the idea that a leadership change signals sweeping transformation. After all, Rose doesn’t start until September. Until then, they’d rather stay focused on the present, not the promise.
Ryan Kangisser, a bellwether for client perspective thanks to his proximity to them as the chief strategy officer at MediaSense, expanded on the point: “I do think that often the industry cares more about these sorts of appointments than clients do. Especially if clients have got a really solid client lead, or business lead, then they’re the people who they feel are the ones driving their business.”
What I’m calling augmented retailing is a step change in technology in retailing from efficiency to effectiveness.
Retailing efficiency
Before we talk about augmented retailing, let’s go through efficiency which has been the focus for a long time. Depending on the way you want to look at this, you could look back centuries to the foundation of a technology multiplier: children.
Family retail businesses had family members working in their business from once they could understand and act on instructions. I have friends that started working in the family restaurant from 6-years old. I started working on the family farm (ineffectively) from a similar age.
Weighing scales were starting to become standardised by the middle-ages and giving short measures could see you punished.
The next innovation were payment related, such as currency and credit.
At the end of the 19th century thanks to industrialisation you started to see the origins of supermarkets as we now think about them. Sears Roebuck was the exemplar for mail order business, from which we now have Amazon and the countless e-tailers out there. Around about the same time the cash register was invented, which allowed cashiers to deal with more customers in a given amount of time. Cash registers then improved over the next century.
At the end of the 20th century we start to see e-tailing emerge. Accelerating mail order from being a niche to becoming a mainstream form of retail. Around the same time, you also saw cashier-less tills come in and other techniques to make shopping even more self-service.
Augmented retailing
Augmented retailing isn’t for the primary benefit of the retailer; but the customer. That’s more radical than it sounds as I write this down.
Look at other trends that marked change in retail and its about inconvenience to ‘create’ demand:
Apple retail product launches.
Abercrombe and Fitch / Hollister’s ‘club style’ door queues.
I have started to see innovations that are focused on the effectiveness of the consumer experience, rather than being orientated around retailing efficiency.
Mylowe virtual advisor
Lowe’s is a DIY superstore, rather similar to B&Q, Homebase or Toolstation in the UK. Like B&Q, Lowe’s has on-site experts to advise customers and help them select parts for projects.
Mylowe helps the experts by augmenting their expertise, providing a faster, better experience for Lowe’s customers.
A-eye
Indian snack manufacturer Britanniaworked with their agency VML India to aid blind consumers to shop independently. The app christened A-eye uses Google’s Vertex AI to recognise products on shelves and provide information about the product (quantity, ingredients, instructions etc.). Think about the personal confidence that this would bring to the user in their everyday life.
Albert Heijn provides cooking tips
Dutch supermarket brand Albert Heijn uses generative AI to help consumers by answering cooking questions. `Mijn AH assistent’ helps customers in their food shopping for food ingredients.
