OOPS is Meta’s online operations support system. OOPS provides access to user accounts like a sys admin on a company IT network. If you’re a Meta employee, friends or family you can get hold of a concierge service to solve account related problems. It isn’t available to outsiders.
It seems that OOPS has been used to reassign or disable accounts for profit and access wasn’t as controlled as it should be.
The Meta OOPS scandal made me wonder if OnlyFans performer Kitty Lixo had actually been gaslit about her account by Meta employees, rather than being helped out in return for sex. Lixo has gone from having an Instagram account with 199,000 followers to two smaller accounts with under 20,000 followers combined at the time of writing.
“We met up and I f**ked a couple of them and I was able to get my account back two-three times,” Kitty Lixo said, recommending others with locked accounts to continue reaching out to the platform for eventual ban reversal.
OnlyFans Star Says She Slept With Meta Employees to Get Instagram Unbanned by Nick Mordowanec (May 20, 2022) Newsweek
Subscription Pricing Coming to Features Your Car Already Has – a $25-per-month charge for advanced cruise control or $10 to access heated seats? What if those charges continued long after your car was paid off? …As vehicles become increasingly connected to the internet, car companies aim to rake in billions by having customers pay monthly or annual subscriptions to access certain features. Not content with the relatively low-margin business of building and selling cars, automakers are eager to pull down Silicon Valley-style profits. For automakers, the advantage of this model is clear. …Not only do they get a stream of recurring revenue for years after an initial purchase, they can hope to maintain a longer-term relationship with the customer and build brand loyalty, said Kristin Kolodge, vice president and head of auto benchmarking and mobility development at J.D. Power. – I suspect that this will only work if every car was on a lease agreement and if that’s the case then there are lots of negative impact from old cars that need to be written off that outweigh this business model. Secondly, there is an expectation that all of the vehicle will conform to Moore’s Law.
What about the layoffs at Meta and Twitter? Elon is crazy! WTF??? | I, Cringely – I first arrived in Silicon Valley in 1977 — 45 years ago. I was 24 years old and had accepted a Stanford fellowship paying $2,575 for the academic year. My on-campus apartment rent was $175 per month and a year later I’d buy my first Palo Alto house for $57,000 (sold 21 years later for $990,000). It was an exciting time to be living and working in Silicon Valley. And it still is. We’re right now in a period of economic confusion and reflection when many of the loudest voices have little to no sense of history. Well my old brain is crammed with history and I’m here to tell you that the current situation — despite the news coverage — is no big deal. This, too, shall pass – vintage Bob Cringely
Kiwix on the App Store – this is available on Mac and iOS app stories. It allows you to view an offline version of Wikipedia, Project Gutenberg and Khan Academy modules. Ideal for when you’re unplugged.
What happens to the unionist community identity with it being so bound up to being part of the UK and their otherness to the local Irish population?
Would Northern Ireland Unionism see the UK as having spurned them and what would the blowback be? The honest answer would be which branches of unionism?
The various strands of unionism
Unionism means different things to different people. Below are three very broad brush stroke portraits of unionist groupings.
The staunch religious unionists who may be regular attendees at the likes of the Free Presbyterian church who believe that their rights are divine and would view papists in the same category as satanists and pedophiles. Even worse are people with secular beliefs in things like gay marriage or abortion on demand.
The working class unionists who might not be regular church attendees but hatred is tradition, the Troubles were only one generation away and in a time of globalisation, any advantage is needed. In many respects the more active members of this community look and sound similar to right wing populist supporters on the mainland and elsewhere. With low education attainment, a united Ireland would have a limited upside. In previous generations these were the people that Carson fired up and volunteered to die by the thousand in the First World War.
The middle class unionist. In the past they may have voted for the Ulster Unionist Party which was a house for a wide range of unionist views from the moderate Terence O’Neill to more hardline candidates. More likely to be in the professions, a medium sized business owner, farmer and university educated. Economic considerations are more likely to have a bearing on any voting decisions.
Unionism was begat from a displaced people
The curious aspect about unionism is the origins. The people who founded the Ulster plantations, were disconnected from their King who had moved to London to rule over the whole of Great Britain. They were given land to make them feel like they were still cared about.
Later generations that were brought in were themselves displaced from land holdings in Scotland previously by landlords The eviction of tenants went against dùthchas, the principle that clan members had an inalienable right to rent land in the clan territory. Since the Middle Ages the clan has been the principle social organisation / construct. The plantations led to the founding of many of Ulster’s towns and created a lasting Ulster Protestant community in the province with ties to Britain. It also resulted in many of the native Irish nobility losing their land and led to centuries of ethnic and sectarian animosity, which at times spilled into conflict.
The problem now for unionists is that a majority of mainlanders feel ambivalent at best towards their Ulster kinsmen and the desire for union with them is one-sided.
Toronto businessman allegedly focus of Chinese interference probes: sources | Globalnews.ca – The Canadian Security Intelligence Service has investigated Wei Chengyi for his alleged role in a covert scheme that facilitated large-fund transfers meant to advance Beijing’s interests in Canada’s 2019 federal election, sources said. According to RCMP sources, national security investigators are also probing Wei for possible links to several properties in Toronto and Vancouver allegedly used as so-called Chinese government “police stations,” which are believed to secretly host agents from China’s Ministry of Public Security (MPS.)
Russia’s Road to Economic Ruin | Foreign Affairs – At the beginning of the war, in February and early March, Russians rushed to buy dollars and euros to protect themselves against a potential plunge in the ruble. Over the next eight months, with Russian losses in Ukraine mounting, they bought even more. Normally, this would have caused a significant devaluation of the ruble because when people buy foreign currency, the ruble plunges. Because of sanctions, however, companies that imported goods before the war stopped purchasing currency to finance these imports. As a result, imports fell by 40 percent in the spring. One consequence was that the ruble strengthened against the dollar. In short, it was not that sanctions did not work. On the contrary, their short-term effect on imports was unexpectedly strong. Such a fall in imports was not expected. If Russia’s central bank had anticipated such a massive fall, it would not have introduced severe restrictions on dollar deposits in March to prevent a collapse in the value of the ruble. Economic sanctions did, of course, have other immediate effects. Curbing Russia’s access to microelectronics, chips, and semiconductors made production of cars and aircraft almost impossible. From March to August, Russian car manufacturing fell by an astonishing 90 percent, and the drop in aircraft production was similar. The same holds true for the production of weapons, which is understandably a top priority for the government. Expectations that new trade routes through China, Turkey, and other countries that are not part of the sanctions regime would compensate for the loss of Western imports have been proved wrong. The abnormally strong ruble is a signal that backdoor import channels are not working. If imports were flowing into Russia through hidden channels, importers would have been buying dollars, sending the ruble down. – One of the more interesting pieces of analysis on sanctions
The Center for Strategic Translation – Starting in the summer of 2023 the Center will host a series of seminars to teach young journalists, graduate students, and government analysts the tools of “Pekinology.” Led by a carefully selected set of senior scholars and retired government personnel, these seminars instruct students in the open-source analysis of Communist Party policy, introduce them to the distinctive lexicon and history of Party speak, and train them how to draw credible conclusions from conflicting or propagandistic documentary sources
Back to 1992 with DJ Vertigo. I knew DJ Vertigo or to call him is proper name Steve from my time shopping at 3Beat Records where he worked behind the counter. His Grin tapes brought a steady stream of non-record buyers into the store. Weekends saw him DJ’ing across the north of England in the early 90s including big nights at the time like Maximes in Wigan, Ark and The Gallery which were both in Leeds and The Orbit @ Morley in the greater Leeds area. At the time 3 Beat was having its status THE record store was being challenged by Probe Records that was around the corner at 9 Slater Street. There was a new manager who got in some amazing house and techno alongside Probe’s usual material. Down on Matthew Street you had the Groover Record Bar with Rusty, Les Calvert and Dave Graham.
Over time, DJ Vertigo’s legacy got cemented as tapes were passed on, copied or transferred to digital. The other names faded away in terms of their cultural relevance.
Last I heard DJ Vertigo was playing regular ‘old school’ club nights in Leeds for middle aged people to relive their youth and young people to hear the sounds that had excited their gen X peers.
The Peripheral
Amazon Studios have adapted William Gibson’s book The Peripheral, which I enjoyed reading when it came out. I look forward to each new episode. Here’s the trailer
Porsche have built a homage to the Safari Rally, Oman Rally and Paris-Dakar Rally cars that Dave Richards (of Prodrive fame) used to build on Porsche 911 SC RS cars.
I personally would want it jacked up a bit more for ground clearance and portal axles a la a Mercedes Unimog. There’s also no mud flaps, but otherwise its an interesting looking car.
DJ Kenta
What I have been listening to this week. Japanese DJ, DJ Kenta. Its kind of like an upbeat version of a Giles Patterson set. More here.
Kherson offensive
William Spaniel does a good job of providing an analysis of the Ukrainian effort to take back Kherson.
A more nuanced view on the Ukraine invasion in the air from a RUSI analyst.
Acronym Designer Errolson Hugh Sees the Future | GQ – “People often use the word ‘dystopia’ or the phrase ‘cyberpunk’ in relation to us,” Errolson says. “But really, our whole thing is, Acronym is really about agency. It’s about enabling somebody to do something they couldn’t otherwise. It’s inherently optimistic.” – Errolson Hugh and the design team at Acronym cross a number of different areas or disciplines. You could look backwards and see Hugh and Co. as materials innovators with martial influences walking in the footsteps of Massimo Osti who founded C.P. Company and Stone Island.
Errolson Hugh via Bicycle magazine Japan
There is also a clear connective thread in terms of style between Errolson Hugh’s Acronym, Yoon Ahn & Verbal (Ryu Yeong-gi) of Ambush and also Paul Nicholson of Number 3.
How will the world pay to support its aging population? – economic growth will falter, since working-age populations will shrink. In the US, real potential GDP growth is projected to drop from 2.4% currently to 1.5% in 2043. Some of this can be offset. “If inflation starts eating into savings, people will want to come back to work,” Pradhan said—something that’s happening even now in the US. Any official move to raise the retirement age will not go down well with people who have been used to thinking of stopping work at 60 or thereabouts, Pradhan said. “Even in Russia, at a time when Vladimir Putin had a lot of popularity, he found it hard to push the retirement age up,” he said. But even if, de facto, people retire later, Pradhan is unsure of “how much this can be juiced. Already, by reducing pension benefits, we’ve made people aware of this.” In the EU, for instance, the labor force participation rate for people between the ages of 55-64 rose from around 43% in 2005 to around 64% in 2019. “I’m not sure how much higher we can drag that,” Pradhan said. – in some economies this can blunted through women’s increased participation in the workplace.
Criminal records checks of lion dance performers necessary, Hong Kong security chief says – Hong Kong Free Press HKFP – “Given the unique nature of lion dance activities and attendant martial arts displays, it is necessary for the Government to ensure that public order is not disturbed and that public safety is not affected when such sport activities are conducted in public places,” he said. As of last month, the Hong Kong Chinese Martial Arts Dragon and Lion Dance Association had around 190 organisation members. In the year of 2018-2019, the association organised five dragon and lion dance competitions with funding from the Leisure and Cultural Services Department. The competition saw more than 200 participating teams and more than 2,100 participants in total. – National security implications given the lion dance’s close association with kung fu practitioners? There is also the subversive history of the lion dance.
Lion dancing gained its greatest fame during the Ching Dynasty. The Manchu reign at that time was an oppressive, inhumane government. Thousands of Chinese were massacres without any known cause until, it is said, “their blood literally reddened the rivers.” Ming loyalists attempting to foment rebellion against the Manchu warlords, expressed their hatred by inventing the green-faced lion. With brows made of twin steel swords, each measuring 1 foot 6 inches in length, the green lion represented the Manchu Government during the Ching Dynasty. Fighting the lion meant combating the Manchus.
Since lion dancing was performed in villages all over the country for the purpose of celebrations, the rebels would use the opportunity to exchange information and to collect money for the revolution. As part of the dance, the lion would eat lettuce — which is where the money would be hidden. The lead dancer would cry, “Choi ching!” (“get the Ching!”) to signal that he was a fellow revolutionary and, therefore, it was safe to pass information to him. However, informers soon figured out the battlecry. So, since chiang (meaning “green”) sounds very much like ching, the revolutionary passcode was changed to “Choi chiang!” (“get the green”). To this day, this revolutionary cry is used when the lion “eats” the symbolic lettuce and good luck money.
The idea of the disruption crisis came from a series of conversations that I have been having in recent times and recent online news.
TechCrunch Disrupt NY 2012 Day Two – May 23, 2012 (Photo: Devin Coldewey)
What is the disruption crisis?
The rise of big tech such as Meta, Twitter, Google, Amazon, Bytedance, Alibaba and Tencent drove a wave of digital disruption over the past quarter century. Now the disruptors are being disrupted themselves and I think that they may precipitate a disruption crisis.
Continuing to look to these digital disruptors is the equivalent of Jimmy Swaggart or Jim Bakker being held up as an exemplar of a good husband and faithful spouse.
Mass lay-offs
Others have talked about the layoffs in more depth, so I have included a video explanation.
I started my agency career during the dot com bubble. We had going for growth at all costs. They talked about trying to move at ‘internet speed’. This was down to the go for growth funding model that drove start-ups through their angel and VC funding rounds and beyond. Common sense was often set aside. if this sounds 180 degrees away from the lean start-up model you’re not wrong.
…Amazon made big bets on long plays, willing to sacrifice immediate profitability to boost its overall position in blue ocean markets. When Amazon’s had to play catch-up, it largely hasn’t worked: the Kindle Phone is maybe the most high-profile mistake/missed opportunity, just to name one. It’s hard to deny that this loss-leader approach has been key to Amazon’s success, although it often made the company a mystery to Wall Street. This would signify a huge shift, totally aside from the 3% of employees who will likely leave the company.
Hacking away at the Devices and R&D divisions is the most perplexing to me. These are the sources of Amazon’s most signature successes, with the Kindle, Alexa/Echo, and Fire TV. They’re what hook customers when they’re still kids, and that customers above all associate with the company, even as they help ensure loyalty and drive their share of media purchases and retail revenue. The Kindle, like the Echo and the Fire Stick, was always supposed to be a loss leader: you sell the razor at close to cost and make your money back selling the blades. How many books has Amazon sold because of the Kindle? How many Prime subscriptions? How many impulse purchases do people make on their Echos and Fires?
Tim Carmody, Loss Leaders. (Issue #50) Amazon Chronicles
Consultants have taken the idea of transformative technology and scrappy startup methodologies to try and reinvent business, or facilitate digital disruption. The problem is that the examples they use as exemplars are failing, casting doubt on their doctrine and fuelling a disruption crisis in boardrooms and the consultants that advise them.
Unilever – a cautionary tale
For instance, I contracted at Unilever. I worked rolling out digital brand assets for their Family Brands product line. This was a line of margarines, due to organic growth it has different names in different markets:
Blue Band
Country Crock
Flora
Fruit d’Or
Margarina Primavera
Plantta
Rama
While I was doing this work, I worked closely with the Becel functional foods and Bertorelli brands. Family Brands was being put into a separate business to develop a ‘startup mentality’. The thing was Family Brands hadn’t been a startup for decades. In fact, it hadn’t been a startup since the 1870s when Antoon Jurgens branched out from trading in butter and started to manufacture margarine. His company merged with rivals Van den Bergh’s, Centra, and Schicht’s to form Margarine Unie (Margarine Union) in 1927, by which time it had a dominant position in margarine manufacturing.
Three years later, Margarine Unie merges with Lever Brothers Limited to create Unilever and the rest was history.
Margarine as a substitute good
Margarine historically was a substitute product for butter. My parents (both of whom came from farming families in Ireland) used to talk about how poor children in the towns would have eaten margarine rather than butter. As a child, we might use margarine to bake a cake, but if we wanted the cake to keep a while my Granny or my Mam would only use salted butter. Despite butter (which we kept in the fridge) being so hard that it might break up the surface of the bread, we used it on our sandwiches, toast or to fry with. Margarine just wasn’t the done thing.
One of the most damning things that my Granny once said about a friend of hers was:
She uses margarine to make the ham sandwiches when you’re invited around for a cup of tea.
One of the first courses that I had at university was in economics, where they used margarine as an exemplar for a substitute good.
Healthier option
Margarine started to be considered a healthier option due to concerns about heart disease and cholesterol. Much of this was down to Flora, invented in 1964, which contained polyunsaturated fats derived from sunflower oil. At the same time wholemeal bread started to become preferable due to the requirement for fibre in the diet.
Yellow fats category decline
However Although 21st century sales declined as many consumers switched to butter. This was down to changes in consumers wanting a more natural product and heart health improvising. In the five years leading to 2014, sales of margarine fell 6%, while sales of butter rose 7%.
It was in this atmosphere that the startup narrative was fired up for Family Brands.
The other shoe dropped when Unilever narrowly managed to fight a hostile bid from 3G Capital a couple of years after I was there. Paul Polman got rid of business lower margin businesses as an attempt to increase earnings. These were still great businesses which is why KKR were happy to take the business off Unilever’s hands.
Unilever didn’t spin out a startup. It wasn’t disruptive thinking, it was an act of desperation to fend off takeovers or possible greenmailing. The problem with with this is Unilever now has a lot less buying power on global supplies of oils and fats needed for its ice cream, mayonnaise, food additives and personal care businesses – which was the rationale for forming Unilever in the first place.
Foundational technologies in crisis bringing crisis
Foundational technologies were cited as new elements that would cause digital disruption. The fall of these technologies and the companies that have championed them have fuelled this disruption crisis.
Cloud services
Microsoft and Amazon both saw declining sales in SaaS and related services, as businesses has less employees and needed less seats. Amazon has been cutting deep in its R&D function and devices. This means that Alexa for the hospitality industry and health sectors are likely to be borrowed time.
Web 3.0 (blockchain, NFTs, cryptocurrency)
Here’s what my friend Nigel Scott had to say about FTX on LinkedIn:
There has been a lot of commentary over the weekend on the #ftx #cryptocurrency #exchange collapse
A lot of words have been typed and spoken but in the end I think the numbers probably sum it up best
Back in 2018 there was an estimated 200 Crypto Exchanges scattered around the globe
Over the past 3 years an estimated 200 Crypto Exchanges have either collapsed or disappeared
This rate of attrition is nothing new. Back in 2014 – after the Mt Gox event – it was estimated 45% of all #Crypto Exchanges had either collapsed or disappeared
The harsh truth is the risk of failure has always been central, rather than peripheral, to the Crypto Exchange model
Today there are almost 600 Crypto Exchanges open for business
The only question that needs to be asked is what fraction of them will still be in business in 2023, 2024, 2025 and beyond?
and, more importantly, what is the probability of picking a survivor, never mind a winner, in such a volatile environment?
Which is to say, contrary to most of the commentary I have read over the weekend, the #ftxcrash isn’t the exception, it’s the rule – what makes it exceptional is the scale, not the probability of the failure
Blast radius
One edition of the Axios Login newsletter used the headline ‘blast radius‘ describe the impact that FTX and other crypto economy problems were having on the wider Web 3.0 ecosystem of decentralised services. Creating a disruption crisis.
Less than four years before disruptive technologies had become mainstream when IBM brought a ‘better way’ of managing supply chain for Walmart by putting their heads of lettuce on the blockchain. Just writing that last sentence made me like my IQ number was dropping; but just four years ago, this was a point of validation…
Metaverse
Prior to Meta’s recent financial results and job cuts you had the likes of McKinsey cheerleading for the metaverse.
With its potential to generate up to $5 trillion in value by 2030, the metaverse is too big for companies to ignore.
To give you an idea of how far we are from the much vaunted metaverse, have a look at my discussion paper.
Social media marketing
Alphabet has seen a decline in YouTube advertising and search advertising is down by about a fifth in October. Twitter is heading towards bankruptcy as brands stopped advertising on the platform. Meta has also shown a decline in advertising revenue. Snap is doing much worse. TikTok seems to be the outlier.
Accenture and the disruption crisis
A quick search of Accenture and disruption yields about 628,000 results. Accenture has latched itself onto disruption in the same way that IBM glommed on to e-business during the first dot com bomb, Sun Microsystems became the ‘dot in dot com’ and the whole of the entire enterprise IT industry latched on to the millennium bug.
Better than ‘the dot in dot com’
Some bright minds at Accenture came up with a concept that was ownable, not time-bounded like ‘e-business’ or ‘the dot in dot com’ – you’re kind of done when everyone has a website that can do transactions of some sort.
Sun Microsystems advert circa 2000
Accenture welded itself to disruption with the Disruptibility Index which looks at how disruption affects different vertical markets.
Dark thoughts
Disruption tapped into deep negative behavioural emotions. Fear, uncertainty and doubt. As tech executive Andy Grove had constantly repeated ‘Only the Paranoid Survive‘. Disruption didn’t necessarily promise a thriving business due to sustained competitive advantage, like earlier generations of technology companies and consultancies. Instead it promised, merely survival in a globalised hostile world, with constant waves of disruption coming at the c-suite. This is the business equivalent of Adam Curtis’ video essay Oh Dearism.
This gives your internal champions on the client side a bit more political space if their digital transformation projects doesn’t hit all the goals that we would like it to hit.
Of course all of this could come off the wheels if a great disruption crisis hit, wouldn’t it?
The disruption crisis doesn’t just toll for Accenture
It would be remiss of me to just single out Accenture. They have been part of a much bigger movement across professional services, finance, the technology sector and academia. Here are some of the people across academia have had a similar idea to Accenture; they’ve written books like these over the past 10 years or so:
It has been the fodder of countless conferences around the world. For example here’s a representative of Euromonitor International speaking at a conference of the International Homeware Association (IHA) on digital disruption.
I am not putting this in here to make fun of the IHA – it is the professional association of a market worth 80 billion dollars a year globally and deserves our respect. Globalisation has centralised a lot of homeware production in the Far East due to globalisation over the past quarter of a century; but it still plays a central, if less visible part in our lives today.
Instead I am using the IHA as an exemplar of how digital disruption has pervaded all parts of the economy as a central organising principle in modern business thinking.
