Search results for: “"knowledge search"”

  • Pipes by Yahoo

    I discovered something at the end of last year. The belatedly missed Yahoo Pipes was, in fact, officially called “Pipes by Yahoo.” I made that mistake, despite being well-versed in the brand guidelines, having spent a year working there with a copy consistently at my side.

    Now, why this journey down the memory superhighway? That’s a valid question. The inspiration for this post came from Bradley Horowitz’s initial post on Threads. (I had to go back and re-edit the reference to post from tweet to include it in the previous sentence, force of habit). In his post, Bradley shared the history of Pipes by Yahoo. I’m acquainted with Bradley from my time at Yahoo!. During that period, he was one of the senior executives in Jeff Weiner’s Yahoo! Search and Marketplace team.

    Consider this article as complementary to the Pipes by Yahoo history that Bradley pointed out. I will share the link where it makes sense to go over and read it in my depth. My commentary provides context prior to Pipes by Yahoo launching, the impact it had and why it’s pertinent now.

    Origins

    To comprehend Pipes by Yahoo, a fair amount of scene-setting is necessary. The contemporary web experience is now a world apart from the open web of Pipes, just as Pipes was distant from the pre-web days of the early 1990s.

    Boom to bust

    During the mid-1990s through the dot-com bust, Yahoo! generated substantial revenue from various sources, with online display advertising being the most pivotal. Launching a blockbuster film from the late 1990s to the early 2010s often involved a page takeover on Yahoo! and featuring the trailer on the Yahoo! Movies channel and Apple’s QuickTime.com. A similar approach applied to major FMCG marketing campaigns, with large display advertising initiatives.

    San Francisco billboard drive-by

    Yahoo! profited significantly during this period, as the internet was the new trend, and display advertising was a cornerstone for brand building. Money was spent generously, akin to contemporary budgets for influencer marketing programmes.

    Yahoo! occupied a space between TV, magazine advertising, and newspaper advertising. The design of the My Yahoo! page mirrored the multi-column layout of a traditional newspaper.

    Similar to a newspaper, Yahoo! developed various departments and services:

    • Search
    • News (including finance)
    • Music services
    • Shopping, featuring a store for small businesses, auctions, and a shopping mall-type offering
    • Sports
    • Communications (email, instant messaging, voice calls, early video calling)
    • Web hosting

    Then came the dot-com crash. Advertising revenue plummeted by around a third to 40 percent, depending on who you ask. Deals like the acquisition of Broadcast.com shifted from appearing speculative and experimental to extravagant wastes of money as the bust unfolded. This experience left scars on the organization, restraining the size of deals and the scope of ambition. Opportunities were second and third-guessed.

    Yahoo! Europe narrowly survived, thanks to a white-label dating product. Love proved to be a more dependable revenue source than display advertising. A new CEO from the media industry was appointed to address shareholder and advertiser concerns.

    The advertising industry was in a constant state of learning. Performance marketing emerged as a significant trend, and search advertising gained prominence.

    The initial cast in this story

    Jeff explains something to the phone

    Weiner was hired into Yahoo! by then CEO Terry Semel. Semel knew Weiner from his work getting Warner Brothers into the online space.

    Bradley

    Yahoo! had started getting serious about search by acquiring a number of search technology companies and hiring talented people in the field. Bradley Horowitz had found an image and video search startup called Virage and joined Yahoo! (a year before I got there) as director of media search.

    Tim Mayer Yahoo

    There was former Overture executive Tim Mayer who was VP of search products and drove an initiative to blow out Yahoo!’s search index as part of a feature and quality battle with Google, Bing and Ask Jeeves. It was a great product, but with the best effort in the world we didn’t have the heat. The majority of Yahoos internally used Google because of muscle memory.

    how many points for visiting the metro?

    Vish Makhijani was ex-Inktomi and was VP – international search and has more of a focus on operations. He worked on getting non-US Yahoo! users feature parity – at least in search products.

    Former Netscaper, Eckhart Walther was the VP in charge of product management.

    Aside: where did Ged sit?

    Where did I sit? Low on the totem pole. To understand my position in the organisation, imagine a Venn diagram with two interlocking circles: the European central marketing team and Vish’s team. I would have sat in the interlocking bit. If that all sounds confusing, yes it was.

    Downtown San Jose

    Search wars and web 2.0

    Pipes by Yahoo emerged from the confluence of two technological trends that developed in parallel, extending all the way to early social media platforms.

    Search wars

    I had been discussing the prospect of working at Yahoo! with a couple of people since around 2003. I had an online and technology brand and product marketing background. I had been blogging regularly since late 2002 / early 2003 and managed to incorporate online reviews and forum seeding into campaigns for the likes of Aljazeera and BT. The business was emerging from survival mode. As an outsider, it wasn’t immediately apparent how precarious Yahoo!’s situation had been. However, the threat posed by Google was undeniable.

    At that time, Google didn’t have the extensive workforce it boasts today. One of my friends served as their PR person for Europe. Nevertheless, Google had embedded itself into the zeitgeist, seemingly launching a new product or feature every week. If there wasn’t a new product, stories would sometimes ‘write themselves,’ such as the time the face of Jesus was supposedly found on Google Maps photography of Peruvian sand dunes. The closest contemporary comparison might be the cultural impact of TikTok.

    The geographical impact of Google’s cultural dominance was uneven. In the US, Yahoo! was a beloved brand that many netizens were accustomed to using. Yahoo! held double the market share in search there compared to Europe. Part of this discrepancy was due to Europeans coming online a bit later and immediately discovering Google. But Google didn’t do that well with non-Roman derived European languages like Czech. It has similar problems with symbolic languages like Korean, Chinese and Japanese.

    Google explosion

    I can vividly remember the first time I used Google. At that time I was using a hodge podge of search engines, usually starting with AltaVista and then trying others if I didn’t get what I wanted. This was before tabbed browsers were a thing, so you can imagine how involved the process became.

    Google appeared in an online article, which I think was on Hotwired some time during late 1998, less than a year after it had been founded. I clicked on a link to use the search engine. Google looked every different to now. It had a clean page with three boxes beneath. The first one was a few special searches, I think one of them was Linux-related, which tells you a lot about the audience at the time. The second was set of corporate links including a link explaining why you would want to use Google – although experiencing one search was enough for most people that I knew. The final box was to sign up to a monthly newsletter that would give updates on what developments Google was up to.

    From then on, I very rarely searched on Alta Vista, though my home page was still My Excite for a long time. This was more because I had my clients news set up on the page already and they had decent finance overage at the time.

    The difference in searches was really profound, there were a number of factors at work:

    • Google’s approach seemed to give consistently better results than the vectored approach taken by Excite or AltaVista.
    • There was no advertising on the SERP (search engine results page), but that was to soon change.
    • You could use very directed Boolean search strings, which isn’t possible any more since Google optimised for mobile.
    • Search engine optimisation wasn’t a thing yet.
    • The web while seeming vast at the time, was actually small compared to its size now. Web culture at the time was quirky and in aggregate nicer and more useful than it is now. Part of this was was down to the fact that early web had a good deal of 1960s counterculture about it. Wired magazine would write about the latest tech thing and also profile psychedelic experimenters like Alexander Shulgin. Cyberpunk, rave and psychedelic tribes blended and found a place online. You can see the carcass of this today with Silicon Valley’s continued love of Burning Man. (Note: there were rich dark seams if that was the kind of thing you were into. There wasn’t the same degree of social agglomeration that we now have, nor were there algorithms that needed constant new content to feed diverse realities.)
    • Content creation on the web was harder than it is now. Blogging was at best a marginal interest, the likes of Angelfire, AOL Hometown, Geocities and Tripod provided free hosting, but you couldn’t put up that much content to pollute the search index even if you wanted to.

    The impact was instantaneous and by early 1999, it was much a part of the nascent netizen culture as Terence McKenna.

    Homage to Terence McKenna

    McKenna spent the last bit of his life interrogating the search engine for four to five hours a day. He was convinced that the online world it provided access to represented some sort of global mind.

    Sometimes he treats the Net like a crystal ball, entering strange phrases into Google’s search field just to see what comes up. “Without sounding too cliché, the Internet really is the birth of some kind of global mind,” says McKenna. “That’s what a god is. Somebody who knows more than you do about whatever you’re dealing with.”

    As our society weaves itself ever more deeply into this colossal thinking machine, McKenna worries that we’ll lose our grasp on the tiller. That’s where psychedelics come in. “I don’t think human beings can keep up with what they’ve set loose unless they augment themselves, chemically, mechanically, or otherwise,” he says. “You can think of psychedelics as enzymes or catalysts for the production of mental structure – without them you can’t understand what you are putting in place. Who would want to do machine architecture or write software without taking psychedelics at some point in the design process?”

    Terence McKenna’s Last Trip – Wired.com (May 1, 1999)

    A year after that McKenna interview, Google was running over 5,000 Linux servers to power the search engine.

    At first, Google also powered search on some of the web portals and saw itself as a competitor to search appliance businesses like Inktomi and Autonomy. The advertising kaiju started operation in 2000 and it was tiny. This violated patents held by GoTo.com – a business subsequently acquired by Yahoo!.

    Post-bust

    Once Yahoo! had disentangled itself from the carnage of the dot com bust, search was a much bigger deal. And Google had become a behemoth in the space of a few years. In 2002, Google launched Google News – a direct challenge to web portals like Yahoo!, MSN and Excite. Around about this time Google started to be used as a verb for using a web search engine.

    While display advertising had taken a dive, search advertising had took off for several reasons:

    • It was performance marketing, even when a business is just surviving sales are important
    • Behavioural intent – if you were searching for something you were likely interested in it and may even purchase it
    • So easy to do at a basic level, even small and medium sized businesses could do it
    • Advertising dashboard – Google did a good job at helping marketers show where the advertising spend had gone.

    We’ll ignore on the difficult facts for the time being, for instance:

    • The role of brand building versus brand activating media
    • What attribution might actually look like
    • That Google advertising is a rentier tax, rather than a business generator

    Google listed on the stock market in August 2004. Investors ignored governance red flags like the dual share structure so the founders could retain voting rights.

    Yahoo! in the search wars

    Yahoo! had come out of the dot com bust battered but largely intact. Yahoo! was scarred in a few important ways.

    Identity crisis

    Yahoo! came about pre-Judge Jackson trial when Microsoft spread terror and fear into the boardroom of most sensible technology companies. I know that sounds weird in our iPhone and Android world. Rather than the bright cuddly people who give us Xbox, it was a rabid rentier with a penchant for tactics that organised crime bosses would have approved of. It took a long time to work that out of their system.

    Another big factor was the fear of Microsoft. If anyone at Yahoo considered the idea that they should be a technology company, the next thought would have been that Microsoft would crush them.

    It’s hard for anyone much younger than me to understand the fear Microsoft still inspired in 1995. Imagine a company with several times the power Google has now, but way meaner. It was perfectly reasonable to be afraid of them. Yahoo watched them crush the first hot Internet company, Netscape. It was reasonable to worry that if they tried to be the next Netscape, they’d suffer the same fate. How were they to know that Netscape would turn out to be Microsoft’s last victim?

    Paul Taylor – ex Yahoo and founder of Y-Combinator

    Yet Yahoo! went on to hire media mogul Terry Semel as it went through the dot com bust, shows that this thinking must have coloured views somewhat.

    Cheque book shy

    Even Mark Cuban would admit that Broadcast.com was not worth the billion dollar price tag that Yahoo! paid for it. It was a high profile mistake at the wrong point in the economic cycle which haunted Yahoo! acquisition plans for years. Which is one of the reasons why may have Yahoo! dropped the ball when it had the chance to buy Google and Facebook.

    The game has changed

    But the game had changed. Display advertising was no longer as profitable as it had been. Search advertising was the new hotness, fuelled by online commerce. By early 2004, Yahoo! is confident enough in its own search offering to drop Google who had been providing its search function.

    Yahoo! acquired search appliance business Inktomi in 2002 and then Overture Services in 2003. Overture services provides the basic ad buying experience for Yahoo! search advertising.

    In 2004, Yahoo! realises having search is not enough, you have to offer at least as good as product as Google, if not better. This is where Tim Mayer comes in and for the next couple of years he leads a project to build and maintain search parity with Google.

    You had a corresponding project on the search advertising side to bring the Overture buying experience up to par with Google with a large team of engineers. That became a veritable saga in its own right and the project name ‘Panama‘ became widely known in the online advertising industry before the service launched.

    Search differently

    Googling is a habit. In order to illicit behavioural change you would have to

    • Have an alternative
    • Change what it means to search in a positive way

    Yahoo! approached this from two directions:

    • Allowing different kinds of information to be searched, notably tacit knowledge. I worked on the global launch of what was to become Yahoo! Answers, that was in turn influenced by Asian services notably Naver Knowledge IN. This approach was championed internally by Jerry Yang.
    • Getting better contextual data to improve search quality providing a more semantic web. This would be done by labels or tags. In bookmarking services they allowed for a folksonomy to be created. In photographs it provided information about what the pictures or video content might be, style or genres, age, location or who might be in them.

    Web 2.0

    Alongside a search war there was a dramatic change happening in the underpinnings of the web and how it was created. While the dot com bust caused turmoil, it also let loose a stream of creativity:

    • Office space was reasonably priced in San Francisco only a couple of years after startups and interactive agencies had refurbished former industrial buildings South of Market Street (SoMo).
    • Office furniture was cheap, there was a surplus of Herman Miller Aeron chairs and assorted desks floating around due to bankruptcies and lay-offs.
    • IT and networking equipment was available at very reasonable prices on the second hand market for similar reasons. You could buy top of the range Cisco Catalyst routers and Sun Microsystems servers for pennies on the dollar that their former owners had paid for them less than one computing generation before. This surplus of supplies be bought online from eBay or GoIndustry.com.
    • Just in time for the internet boom wi-fi had started to be adopted in computers. The first wi-fi enabled laptop was the Apple iBook. Soon it became ubiquitous. Co-working spaces and coffee shops started to provide wi-fi access connected to nascent mainstream broadband. Which meant that your neighbourhood coffee shop could be a workspace, a meeting space and a place to collaborate. We take this for granted now, but it was only really in the past 25 years that it became a thing. It also didn’t do Apple’s laptop sales any harm either.
    • Open source software and standards gave developers the building blocks to build something online at relatively little financial cost. Newspapers like the Financial Times would have spent 100,000s of pounds on software licences to launch the paper online. In 2003, WordPress was released as open source software.
    • Amazon launched its web services platform that allowed developers a more flexible way for putting a product online.
    • The corresponding telecoms bust provided access to cheaper bandwidth and data centre capacity.

    All of these factors also changed the way people wrote services. They used web APIs building new things, rather than digital versions of offline media. APIs were made increasingly accessible for a few reasons:

    • Adoption of services was increased if useful stuff was built on top of them. Flickr and Twitter were just two services that benefited from third party applications, integrations and mashups. Mashups were two or more services put together to make something larger than the ingredients. The integration process would be much faster than building something from scratch. It worked well when you wanted to visualise or aggregate inputs together.
    • Having a core API set allowed a service to quickly build out new things based on common plumbing. Flickr’s APIs were as much for internal development as external development. Another example was the Yahoo! UK’s local search product combining business directory data, location data and mapping.
    local

    There was also a mindset shift, you had more real-world conferences facilitating the rapid exchange of ideas, alongside an explosion of technical book publishing. One of the most important nodes in this shift was Tim O’Reilly and business O’Reilly Publishing. Given O’Reilly’s ringside seat to what was happening, he got to name this all web 2.0.

    Finally, a lot of the people driving web 2.0 from a technological point of view were seasoned netizens who had been exposed to early web values. The following cohort of founders like Mark Zuckerberg were more yuppie-like in their cultural outlook, as were many of the suits in the online business like Steve Case or Terry Semel. But the suits weren’t jacked into the innovation stream in the way that Zuckerberg and his peers – but that would come later.

    This was the zeitgeist that begat Pipes by Yahoo.

    The approach to a new type of search needed the foundational skills of web 2.0 and its ‘web of data’ approach. Yahoo! acquired number of companies including Flickr, Upcoming.org and Delicious. At the time developers and engineers were looking to join Yahoo! because they liked what they saw at Flickr, even though the photo service was only a small part of the roles at the business.

    Web 2.0 talent

    The kind of people who were building new services over APIs were usually more comfortable in a scrappy start-up than the large corporate enterprise that Yahoo! had become. Yet these were the same people that Yahoo! needed to hire to develop new products across knowledge search, social and new services.

    There were some exceptions to this, for instance the 26-person team at Whereonearth who operated a global geocoded database and related technology had a number of clients in the insurance sector and Hutchison Telecom prior to being acquired by Yahoo!. The reason why Yahoo! became so interested was a specific Whereonearth product called Location Probability Query Analyser. The technology went on to help both the Panama advertising project and Yahoo! search efforts. George Hadjigeorgiou was tasked with helping them get on board.

    I knew some of the first Flickr staff based out of London, they sat alongside technologist Tom Coates who would later work on FireEagle. They all sat in a windowless meeting room on a floor below the European marketing team sat in.

    Most people didn’t even know that they were there, working away thinking about thinks like geotagging – a key consideration in where 2.0 services and mobile search.

    Going over to the Yahoo! campus in Sunnyvale made it clear to me that the difference in cultural styles was equally different over there, from just one cigarette break with Stewart Butterfield of Flickr.

    Secondly, there was the locale. The best way I found to help British and Irish people get the environment of Silicon Valley was to describe it as a more expansive version of Milton Keynes with wider roads and a lot more sunshine. One of the biggest shocks for me on my first visit to the Bay Area was how ordinary Apple and Google’s offices felt. (This was 1 Infinite Loop before Apple Park construction started). The canopy over the main building entrance looked like an airport Novotel, or every shopping centre throughout the UK.

    In the same way that Milton Keynes is not London; Silicon Valley’s quintessential campus laden town Sunnyvale is not San Francisco.

    This is not the dystopian doom spiral San Francisco city of today with failed governance and pedestrianisation projects. At this time, San Francisco was on the up, having been clobbered by the dot com bust in the early noughties, financial services had kept the city ticking over. Technology was on the rise again. Home town streetwear brand HUF was making a name for itself with its first shop in the Tenderloin, the DNA Lounge had consistently great nights from west coast rave and goth sounds to being a haven for mashup culture with its Bootie nights.

    There was great cinemas, vibrant gay night life and the sleaze of the Mitchell Brothers O’Farrell theatre. The Barry Bonds era San Francisco Giants won more than their fair share of baseball matches.

    If Yahoo! were going to keep talent, they’d need a place in the city. It makes sense that setting up the San Francisco space fell to Caterina Fake. Fake was co-founder of Flickr and was given a mandate by Jerry Yang to ‘make Yahoo! more like Flickr’. So she decided to set up an accelerator for new products.

    Brickhouse

    According to Caterina Fake on Threads:

    I dug around on the company intranet and exhumed an old deck for an initiative called “Brickhouse” which had been approved by the mgmt, but never launched.

    Caterina Fake (@cefake on threads)

    This tracks with my experience in the firm, projects would form make rapid progress and then disappear. And during the first dot com boom, San Francisco was home to online media companies, such as Plastic (Razorfish SF), Organic and Agency.com, many of whom also had offices in New York. Wired magazine had its office there, as did a plethora of start-ups.

    Fake goes on to say that Brickhouse managed to use the same office space she had worked in while she had worked at Organic over a decade earlier.

    The 60 Minutes episode Dot-com Kids marked an acme in this evolution of San Francisco. At the time Fake was doing this exercise, there was probably a Yahoo! sales team based in San Francisco proper, but that would be it.

    Fake cleans up the Brickhouse deck and gets it through the board again with Bradley Horowitz with the then Chief Product Officers Ash Patel and Geoff Ralston, president Sue Decker and chief Yahoo Jerry Yang being the board champions of the project.

    Fake hands off to Chad Dickerson to realise Brickhouse as she heads off on maternity leave. Fake, Dickerson and Horowitz assemble the Brickhouse team (aka the TechDev group) and ideas that would eventually build Pipes by Yahoo!, Fire Eagle and other projects.

    This is where my origins viewpoint on Pipes by Yahoo finishes. For the download on its creation, go here now; the link should open in a new tab and I will still be here when you get back to discuss the service’s impact.

    Pipes by Yahoo was launched to the public as a beta product on February 7 2007. Below is how it was introduced on the first post added to the (now defunct) Yahoo Pipes Blog. At this time product blogs became more important than press releases for product launches as information sources to both tech media and early adopters.

    Introducing Pipes

    What Is Pipes?
    Pipes is a hosted service that lets you remix feeds and create new data mashups in a visual programming environment. The name of the service pays tribute to Unix pipes, which let programmers do astonishingly clever things by making it easy to chain simple utilities together on the command line.

    Philosophy Behind the Project
    There is a rapidly-growing body of well-structured data available online in the form of XML feeds. These feeds range from simple lists of blog entries and news stories to more structured, machine-generated data sources like the Yahoo! Maps Traffic RSS feed. Because of the dearth of tools for manipulating these data sources in meaningful ways, their use has so far largely been limited to feed readers.

    What Can Pipes Do Today?
    Pipes’ initial set of modules lets you assemble personalized information sources out of existing Web services and data feeds. Pipes outputs standard RSS 2.0, so you can subscribe to and read your pipes in your favorite aggregator. You can also create pipes that accept user input and run them on our servers as a kind of miniature Web application.

    Here are a few example Pipes to give you an idea of what’s possible:

    • Pasha’s Apartment Search pipe combines Craigslist listings with data from Yahoo! Local to display apartments available for rent near any business.
    • Daniel’s News Aggregator pipe combines feeds from Bloglines, Findory, Google News, Microsoft Live News, Technorati, and Yahoo! News, letting you subscribe to persistent searches on any topic across all of these data sources.

    What’s Coming Soon?
    Today’s initial release includes a basic set of modules for retrieving and manipulating RSS and Atom feeds. With your help, we hope to identify and add support for many other kinds of data formats, Web services, processing modules and output renderings.

    Here are some of the things we’re already got planned for future releases:

    • Programmatic access to the Pipes engine
    • Support for additional data sources (such as KML)
    • More built-in processing modules
    • The ability to extend Pipes with external, user-contributed modules
    • More ways to render output (Badges, Maps, etc…)

    Pipes is a work in progress and we’ll need your help to make it a success. Try building some simple pipes and advise us what works well and what doesn’t in the online editor. Tell us how you’d like use Pipes, what we can do to make cool things possible, and show us ways you’ve found to use Pipes that never even occurred to us. In return, we promise to do our best to make Pipes a useful and enjoyable platform for creating the next generation of great Web projects.

    And please have fun!

    The Pipes Development Team

    Pipes impact

    I had a good, if exhausting time at Yahoo! It was first inhouse role and my part of the central marketing team had an exhausting workload. By the time Pipes by Yahoo launched, I had left Yahoo! Europe. There has been a re-organisation of European arm and the business had been ‘Kelkoo-ised’; a few of us on the European central marketing team took the opportunity to take the money and run.

    I remember bringing Salim (who headed the European search team) up to speed and getting his support to push for me getting a payout, rather than fighting my corner.

    Peanut Butter Memo

    Brad Garlinghouse’s peanut butter manifesto was made public towards the end of the year portraying a game of thrones type power play which would have seen the kind of structures that were put in place in the European organisation rolled out globally.

    On the face of it, some of it was pertinent, but it lacked a wider vision.

    While Garlinghouse has gone on to have a really successful career at Ripple; the Yahoo! business unit he ran had several problems. He was in charge of Music and the Comms & Community BU. At the time it had a poor record of building products fit for early adopters like music properties that aren’t Mac-compatiable, this was when the iTunes store and Apple iPod springboard off the Mac community and into the mainstream.

    The then new Yahoo! Mail which didn’t work on Safari and a Messenger client which was worse to use than third party clients like Trillium or Adium. All of which made it hard to build a buzz that will bridge to mainstream users. Yahoo! Messenger, could have been Skype or WhatsApp. It became neither.

    For a more modern example, think about the way Instagram and Threads were Apple iPhone first to build a core audience.

    At the time, I was less charitable about the memo. And the memo raised wider questions about the business; like was the CEO facing an executive revolt?

    The launch of Pipes by Yahoo helped to inject some more positive energy back into the Yahoo! brand. Remember what I said earlier on how talent wanted to join Yahoo!’s engineering and development teams because of Flickr. They started to want to join Yahoo! because of Pipes.

    The outside world

    I was back agency side when Pipes launched. I had friends within Yahoo! still and kept an eye on the various product blogs. I got the heads-up on Pipes and put aside an afternoon and an evening to explore it fully. A quick exploration gave one an idea of how powerful Pipes by Yahoo could be. While Pipes was powerful, it was also relatively user friendly, like Lego for data. It was more user friendly than Apple’s Automator, which inspired Pipes by Yahoo! in the first place.

    At this time in London the amount of people working on social media and online things was still relatively small. Knowledge was shared rather than hoarded at grassroots events and on an ecosystem of personal blogs. This was a group of eople with enquiring minds, a number of whom I can still call friends.

    We shared some of the public recipes on Pipes by Yahoo and learned from them, just as I had learned about Lotus 1-2-3 macros in the early 1990s, by picking through other peoples examples. (I put this to use automating data records in the Corning optical fibre sales support laboratory that I worked in at the time.)

    The agency I worked with had a number of large technology clients including AMD, Fujitsu Siemens personal computing devices – notably smartphones, parts of Microsoft and LG.

    AMD and Microsoft were keen to keep track on any mention of their brand in a number of priority blogs or news sites at the time. Social listening was in its infancy and there were a number of free tools available, which I got adept at using.

    We managed to build and sell both AMD and Microsoft respectively a custom feed which provided them with links to relevant content in near real-time, which they then published on an internal site so that key audiences always had their fingers on the pulse.

    This was all built on top of two free Pipes by Yahoo accounts which used a similar but tweaked recipes to make this happen.

    On the back of that work, we managed to sell in a couple of small websites to the Microsoft team based on WordPress. I had long moved on to another agency role by the time the Pipes by Yahoo feeds would have died.

    Discussing Pipes by Yahoo with friends, they said it had inspired them to learn to code. Pipes by Yahoo spurred creativity and creation in a similar way to HyperCard.

    Zeitgeist

    While all of this has talked about Pipes by Yahoo! and how great the launch was, the ending of Pipes was much more humdrum. The service had been glitchy at the best of times and wasn’t being maintained in the end. In conversations I had with friends, it was compared to a British sports car: unreliable but loveable. Yahoo! closed it down on September 30, 2015.

    Which begs the question, why is Pipes by Yahoo, which was shut down eight and a half years ago being celebrated amongst the digerati?

    I think that the answer to this is in the current online zeitgeist. The modern web isn’t something that anyone involved in web 2.0 would have signed up for. Algorithms have fragmented the global town hall archetype envisaged for social. The web no longer makes sense in aggregate, as it’s splintered by design.

    The modern web feels ephemeral in nature. This seems to have gone hand-in-hand with a video first web exemplified by TikTok.

    The social platforms the fragmentation seem to be declining in relevance and its isn’t clear what’s next. The people-driven web of knowledge search and web 2.0 is under pressure from AI content providing a mass of ‘just good enough’ content. Even influencers are being usurped by digital avatars. Even the audience engagement is often synthetic. All of which leaves the netizen in a state of confusion rather than the control that Pipes by Yahoo offered.

    Taylor Lorenz is a journalist who made net culture and platforms her beat. Taylor Lorenz’ book Extremely Online feels like she is reporting from another planet rather than the recent web and it was published in October last year.

    More information

    Mediasaurus no more? The Well

    Let’s Get This Straight: Yes, there is a better search engine | Salon.com (December 21, 1998)

    The Original GOOGLE Computer Storage Page and Brin

    Notre histoire en détail | Google

    How Google Became a Verb | TLF Translation

    Facebook Yahoo! patents case | renaissance chambara

    Yahoo! Answers Adoption | renaissance chambara

    Sadowski, J. (2020). “The Internet of Landlords: Digital Platforms and New Mechanisms of Rentier Capitalism.” Antipode 52 (2): 562-580.

    Amazon.com Launches Web Services; Developers Can Now Incorporate Amazon.com Content and Features into Their Own Web Sites; Extends ”Welcome Mat” for Developers | Amazon.com newsroom

    Nobody Knows What’s Happening Online Anymore – The Atlantic

    Extremely Online: The Untold Story of Fame, Influence and Power on the Internet by Taylor Lorenz

    The Age of Social Media Is Ending | The Atlantic

    AI is killing the old web, and the new web struggles to be born | The Verge

    Is the web actually evaporating? | Garbage Day

  • 2023 – that was twenty twenty three

    2023 has been an eventful year. I thought it made sense to go back and reflect on everything that has gone on this year. I was inspired to do this after coming across a similar post that I had done for 2005.

    Double Duck

    Contrary to what much of the tech sector believed just six months earlier, 2023 was not going to be the year of the metaverse. In reality, it never was. Sales of VR devices had dropped in 2022, and the technology was years away from the hype.

    It was also going to be a bad year for speculators buying and selling on secondary markets. Previous hot properties like Rolex watches, Porsche 911s and the luxury industry in general dip. Rolex watch prices peaked in 2022 and prices normalised during 2023, despite the watch industry’s efforts to sustain artificial demand. The weakness in luxury markets was mirrored by a weakening of the performance of luxury business. Cryptocurrency saw successful legal proceedings brought by the US government against two of its highest profile industry advocates Sam Bankman-Fried and Changpeng Zhao – both former CEOs of trading platforms FTX and Binance, respectively.

    LLMs and experiments in using them to generate a wide range of outputs drove technology trends instead. Amazon was noticeable by its absence from being at the forefront of this trend, despite its Alexa service. FOOH (fake out of home) became a marketing fad as clients didn’t have budget and still wanted to creat viral moments.

    From a health perspective 2023 was the year of Semaglutide. Novo Nordisk displaced LVMH in the third quarter to become Europe’s most valuable company. FMCG brands and retailers blame the drug (likely falsely) for impacting sales of certain food categories. WW (the brand formerly known as Weight Watchers) jumps into telehealth to offer the treatment direct to patients. Ozempic, Semaglutide or Wegovy were mentioned most days in the media.

    January 2023

    The rail strikes that had disrupted travel in 2022, continued into 2023.

    The Consumer Electronics Show (CES) kicks off 2023. Themes included narrow throw projectors to replace large panel TV screens. The Displace wireless TV looked to turn the large screen into a giant tablet device – as a gimmick it caught a good deal of media attention.

    CES had new areas that weren’t given their own focus just a few years ago around the Internet of Things:

    • Food technology
    • Health technology
    • Sports technology

    Harmon showcased a modular solution to car-based computers, allowing an upgrade path. Currently cars might be based on software and processors that are over a decade old. The Wall Street Journal pointed out the forthcoming ‘gadget gap’ due to a drop off in venture capital funding, resulting in less future start-ups.

    Apple launches its M2, M2 Pro and M2 Max series of processors

    Brand planning pioneer Jeremy Bullmore dies. Later on in the year so does the last vestiges of J Walter Thompson – the agency where Bullmore had his career.

    China ended its COVID-19 related travel restrictions as the world moved to managing the virus as endemic rather than epidemic. COVID ripped through the Chinese population with an estimated 90 percent infection rate. Lunar year related travel had been restricted in previous years under the government’s zero COVID approach. At the time there were great hopes of an economic resurgence, but the Rhodium Group pointed out that progress would be stymied by Chinese corporate and local government debt. In the face of government interference, China’s most famous entrepreneur Jack Ma cedes control of financial services business Ant Group.

    I read Adam Fisher’s oral history of Silicon Valley, Valley of Genius. The reality was that technology leaders were viewed in a more complex light during 2023 and the book title was indicative of the hubris infested in many Silicon Valley leaders. The FT highlighted how it felt software leaders were failing in the physical realm. Just writing that sentence made me think of big tech executives as JRR Tolkien’s ring wraiths. IBM loses its historic top spot in US patent filings and Microsoft invests in OpenAI with a view to integrate ChatGPT into their products and services.

    Mastodon the federated answer to gets a hard pass from the Financial Times after trying to run their own instance. It was a minefield of legal and regulatory issues.

    The US department of justice is investigating Binance – a crypto currency exchange. Already in January 2023, the ongoing legacy of the 2019 protests in Hong Kong carries on as the Hong Kong chief executive is given the right to ban Jimmy Lai’s British barrister from representing him agains the National Security Law charges that he will face. Talking of authoritarian regimes, the UK retail sector embraces facial recognition to try and combat shop lifting and violent crime in their stores.

    Huawei patents EUV lithography tools used for making microchips with pathways below 10nm in size. This news was greeted with skepticism. Later on in the year Huawei launches a processor that might have been made using this technique. This raises major questions about proliferation of critical technology.

    Meanwhile other Chinese companies look to launder their Chinese identity to be more acceptable for their foreign customer base.

    Professor Scott Galloway coins the term ‘Patagonia vest recession‘ to encapsulate how knowledge economy jobs have been impacted more than blue collar roles in late 2022 onwards. I write a post on it and it turns out to be the best performing blog post on my site this year.

    Asian communities celebrate the lunar new year (it’s the year of the rabbit).

    Work-wise I was enmeshed in a number of marketing and innovation projects for GSK Vaccines.

    At the end of the month, Adaline Lau passed away. Adaline was a friend that I made in Hong Kong.

    Adaline Lau, Asia Editor of ClickZ asking a question to Douglas Stotland of Facebook
    SES Asia: Adaline Lau, Asia Editor of ClickZ asking a question to Douglas Stotland of Facebook. Taken at SES Hong Kong 2011.

    Adaline had been living in Singapore and had moved back to Hong Kong. At the time I first met her, she worked reporting on the online media and advertising worlds for ClickZ as their Asian bureau editor.

    Prior ClickZ, Adaline had written at Marketing Magazine and The Singapore Marketer. Outside of her professional writing, Adaline was an avid blogger and photographer, constantly seeking out and documenting vegetarian restaurants wherever she travelled. For many years, Adaline’s Doufu Mafia blog, Flickr and Instagram account was the first place I pointed people to, when they asked about vegetarian or vegan fayre.

    February 2023

    The issue of the day at the start of February 2023 was Chinese spy balloons with a debate that raged for months about whether the balloons were surveilling sensitive military sites or not. The balloon in question had a payload that was 30 feet long.

    If the balloon had made it to the UK, it would have found very little to observe as much of the civil service, the NHS and railway unions were on strike.

    A freight train accident in Ohio inspires a barrage of online misinformation, a good deal of it happening via Chinese sources. The west and China might be locked in a cold war, but the information war is raging hot.

    In Japanese media circles, the last print issue of Popteen magazine marks the transition towards digital media for consumer magazines. Adidas continues its annus horriblis into the early part of 2023 with write downs on both Yeezy and Ivy Park collaborations with Kanye West and Beyonce respectively. Drop sales later on in the year of Yeezy designs help bail Adidas out.

    Online NORA (no real answer) or knowledge search is expected to become a thing as Microsoft provides ChatGPT powered search results. The results are a bit underwhelming. The Chinese government bans its own technology companies from providing services based on ChatGPT.

    The EU moves to ban the sale of new petrol and diesel-powered cars in 2035, there has been a lot of reflection about whether this is the right thing as Chinese government supported electric vehicle companies eviscerate Europe’s car manufacturers.

    Wegovy was launched in the US back in 2021, and by the beginning of 2023, the international discussion about obesity and weight loss management had gone global. Knowledge of the drug amongst patients and the general public spread far faster than the ability to prescribe it as a medicine.

    Pharrell Williams signs on as creative director for Louis Vuitton’s men’s collection. Williams has already worked on collections for Billionaire Boys Club and adidas. His appointment reinforces the ongoing links between premium streetwear and luxury. Meanwhile long time technology veteran Susan Wojcicki steps down from the CEO role at YouTube.

    20190818 Hong Kong anti-extradition bill protest
    Studio Incendo

    TV documentary maker and journalist Bao Choy launches The Collective HK, a new news media outlet. The increasing authoritarian nature of the Hong Kong authorities has seen the closure of several media outlets who had a different perspective to the authorities. Her decision shows immense bravery. The Hong Kong government launches its ‘Hello Hong Kong’ tourism campaign which was heavily criticised.

    South Park touches a British cultural live wire with their criticism of Prince Harry and Meghan Markle in the series episode ‘Worldwide Privacy Tour‘. My Mam and Dad knew far too much about this episode of South Park, it was unnerving.

    Nissan America launches a four-hour advert for the Nissan Ariya electric car. It owes a lot to the Lofi Girl YouTube channel.

    US television and broadband provider Dish Network gets taken offline by unknown hackers. It is an unprecedented infrastructure attack.

    Some UK retailers ration sales of fresh fruit and vegetables due to disrupted supply chains on products imported from southern Europe and north Africa.

    This month marked the first anniversary of the Russian invasion in Ukraine and the 50th anniversary of Pink Floyd’s Dark Side Of The Moon album.

    March 2023

    Silicon Valley pioneer and Intel co-founder Gordon Moore dies. Xi Jinping is appointed as the leader of China for a third term. This was considered to be a measure of how much power Mr Xi has consolidated around himself. China mediates a detente of sorts between the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and Iran.

    US regional bank SVB (Silicon Valley Bank) goes bankrupt dizzyingly fast. Concern about smaller banks ripples throughout the world. Switzerland forces UBS to takeover Credit Suisse to prevent a similar crisis. HSBC picks up SVBs European business catering to start-ups and US technology companies with European offices.

    Microsoft shuts down its VR based social network Altspace VR. Altspace has a small engaged and passionate community, but it was all far too small to make a difference to Microsoft as it pivoted to LLM-based artificial intelligence. Open AI launches Chat GPT4, technology pundits and the advertising world lose their shit. Later on in the month Google opens early access to Bard – a ChatGPT competitor which receives much less publicity

    The Ford Motor Company patents a particular use case for autonomous vehicles, the ability to self-repossess itself if the owner misses their finance payments. The Chinese government detains members of due diligence research firm The Mintz Group. The more opaque China becomes, the less tenable it becomes to conduct work there, do business with Chinese companies or invest in Chinese companies and the Chinese economy. 

    In adland, my friend Iain Tait launches a new agency called Food. An academic research paper shows that negativity drives online news consumption. This has important implications, calling into question ad-funded online news media and social platforms used to consume online news.

    New York’s iconic I love NY tourism campaign gets an unnecessary makeover to We love NYC. It’s unnecessary and the typographic design is an abomination. Luxury car maker Ferrari gets hacked and its customer data gets leaked online.

    In a move that anticipates more office time in the hybrid work mix. Armani advertises bespoke suits and pushes a return to the office.

    Armani channeling the 1980s &  1990s hoping for a return to the office from hybrid working

    Adidas’ relationship with Beyoncé finishes. Ivy Park had underwhelmed in its performance, making less than 25 percent of its projected revenue. In China, women who had fallen in love with virtual characters during COVID arrange in real life meet-ups with cos-playing analogues.

    On a personal note, I had been using the Yahoo! platform including Yahoo! Mail for 25 years. I had forgotten this fact until Yahoo! emailed me to let me know.

    April 2023

    Chinese online marketplace app Temu launches in Europe and the UK, seven months after its US launch. It heavily features online advertising across social platforms like Instagram and Facebook. Like Wish it is the usual mix of scam listings, damaged and or late deliveries, incorrect orders and no customer service.

    Amazon closes the Book Depository. The service was closed down with just three weeks notice to customers and staff. It seemed a world away from when Amazon had bought the online book store back in 2011. I will miss it. It was a life saver when I lived in Hong Kong due to its free global shipping. It was also a place that I used for gift shopping, sending items to friends based abroad.

    Audemars Piguet looks to address rampant watch crime by replacing new watches that are stolen during the first year of ownership. This is a first for the luxury industry. De-influencing – a negative trend for brands used to social media influencers as boosters became a concern for industry marketers who had doubled down on influence as marketing pixie dust. De-influencing is when an influencer provides a negative review of a brand that they don’t like. In luxury beauty L’Oreal buys Aesop to bolster its luxury portfolio. The latest thing in luxury travel is a good nights sleep, with sleep tourism becoming a thing.

    Telehealth startup Ro, promotes its ‘Body Program‘ service to Americans. The service prescribes and ships Wegovy the obesity and weight management medicine direct to patients.

    Bud Light’s influencer marketing activity with transgender social media personality Dylan Mulvaney; sparks a boycott that sees sales drop by over 20 percent. It acts as a catalyst for a bigger discussion on the merits of brand purpose in marketing circles.

    Cloud phone service 3CX gets hacked, leaving lots of large corporates vulnerable to hacking. And in Australia, satellite failures cripple GPS enabled automation on tractors. This is important for sowing crops like wheat and barley. The feature allows the farmer to do the process much more efficiently.

    The modern world as we know it exists largely due to the Xerox corporately funded research centre in Palo Alto. Known as Xerox PARC had originally financed it to be ready for future innovation that would disrupt their existing business. In the end they weren’t ready. Innovation continues there to this day, but Xerox but handed over PARC to the SRI International. SRI conducts research and development on behalf of US government departments and companies across a wide range of disciplines. SRI had been where Doug Engelbart had done much of his key work.

    Damien Roach, aka patten releases Mirage.FM – the first album made purely with generative AI created sounds. It sits somewhere between early Reese or Juan Atkin electronic tracks and the layered production of The Avalanches. 7-Eleven Hong Kong uses generative AI created backdrops for their TV and video ads supporting their 7-Select food range.

    The Russo Brothers launch Citadel – a series on Amazon Prime Video. The show isn’t my cup of tea, but what was notable about it, was the degree of commerce integration. You could buy close to the same outfits the characters wore on screen.

    Citadel

    At work, our agency teamed up with online plant seller Plant Drop and researchers from Oxford University to promote the wellbeing and detoxifying nature of house plants. The government shuts down the NHS COVID-19 tracking app as usage had declined.

    A product giveaway went wrong for BMW. Not necessarily that big an issue, except this was in China at the Shanghai auto show. The brand had been giving out ice creams to stand attendees. They seem to have ran low and kept the ice creams strictly for foreign attendees. Chinese netizens, ever vigilant for anything they can construe as a slight went wild online. Meanwhile, the Milan Furniture Fair is called out for an exhibition of racist glass sculptures from the 1920s.

    May 2023

    The WHO had downgraded COVID-19 from its global health emergency.

    “This virus is here to stay. It is still killing, and it’s still changing,”

    Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, director general, WHO (World Health Organisation)

    The regional bank crisis continues. First Republic Bank collapses and gets acquired by JP Morgan Chase. Unlike SVB, the international impact is muted. Part of this is down to First Republic being a true regional bank, whereas SVB had an international footprint that followed its technology client base around the world.

    Google demonstrates Bard, a ChatGPT analogue – with a heavy focus on generating software code at Google I/O 2023 – their version of Apple’s WWDC (worldwide developer conference).

    Klick Health published research showing that ChatGPT demonstrated 10x more empathy than medical professionals. Meanwhile, WPP announces a partnership with Nvidia to use generative AI in advertising.

    Disney continued its trend of poor performance in the box office with the live action adaptation of The Little Mermaid, it was particularly badly received in Asian markets. In the west, views were divided based on how important the viewer thought fidelity to the original films casting was important.

    Hublot took the movement in luxury towards a circular economy a little too seriously with a limited edition watch made from recycled Nespresso pods.

    The FT’s Cristina Criddle lifts the lid on how Bytedance had accessed her phone through the TikTok app and surveilled her.

    June 2023

    If there was a word of the month for June 2023, it would be decivilisation. President Macron used the term to encapsulate the widespread civil unrest and radical political action ripping through France in a closed door session with experts. The phrase was leaked and the rest is history. Decivilisation isn’t only a French phenomenon, in New York the beleaguered police department went after car manufacturers rather than car thieves.

    Apple unveils its Vision Pro goggles. You won’t be able to buy them in 2023, but Apple wanted to get out its software development kit out to have developers come up with potential killer apps. Apple sought to avoid the traps of the metaverse and comparisons to mixed reality devices with its ‘spatial computing’ concept. Alphabet scraps its next generation of augmented reality (AR) glasses, but continues to develop software for AR devices.

    German engineering manufacturer Rheinmetall puts a smart factory in a shipping container, allowing spare parts to be manufactured using additive manufacturing closer to where the parts are needed. There is a clear need in the Ukraine invasion battlefield.

    A submersible designed to take tourists to the bottom of the ocean implodes. The Ocean Gate Titan was taking passengers to visit the wreck of the Titanic. Omega chooses to launch the following teaser ad campaign at an inopportune moment.

    Omega watch advert a week after Ocean Gate submersible accident

    The Hong Kong government tries to spur consumer consumption with a campaign called ‘Happy Hong Kong‘ – a key element being a series of discounts at several local businesses. The government also sponsors the floating Double Ducks temporary installation by Florentijn Hofman in Victoria Harbour. One duck deflates in the heat. Hofman had previously exhibited one duck in the harbour in 2013.

    Disney’s woes continued into June with the commercial failure of Pixar film Elemental.

    In advertising, GroupM forecasts low growth in media spend. Meanwhile luxury conglomerate Kering buys British fragrance house Creed.

    July 2023

    If decivilisation was June’s word of the month, July 2023 would be represented by the term ‘doom loop’. Doom loop hit its zeitgeist as international media including El Pais and the Financial Times discussed multiple problems that are plaguing San Francisco. San Francisco is just the canary in the coal mine, with mayor Eric Adams seeing similar challenges just a couple of months later.

    Nintendo launches Pokémon Sleep – a gamified sleep tracker with Tamagotchi-type care requirements. Years of news coverage has been highlighting how insufficient sleep of Japanese workers and students has been harming their health and the economy. Twitter rival Threads is launched by Meta. It joins T2/Pebble, BlueSky Social, Mastodon and Post.news.

    The FIFA Women’s World Cup is held in Australia, brands get behind it and the public gets to see great football on the pitch. This sparks a discussion about sports media budgets and football as a business.

    Wild fires across Greece disrupt various holiday destinations, just as leisure travel hits its stride post-COVID. July would be eventually found to be the hottest July on record around the world.

    Barbeheimer – the act of going to watch Barbie and Oppenheimer one after the other at the cinema becomes a cultural moment. The movies are so different, there contrasting nature of the films, together with the post-COVID novelty of getting back into the cinema creates a box office chimera. In Japan, Barbeheimer was viewed negatively trivialising the crime against humanity inflicted on civilians in both Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

    In Hong Kong, McDonald’s Restaurants hold an art exhibition in conjunction with Kevin Poon to celebrate 40 years of the golden arches in the city.

    Toyota focuses on solid state battery technology alongside its work on hydrogen fuel cell-powered vehicles. Dyson’s abortive electric car project failed partly because it was unable to source solid state batteries. Meanwhile, a Reuters investigation found that Tesla cars were designed to lie about their range to their drivers.

    August 2023

    August felt like the world was on fire. The UK was in the middle of a heatwave. The news had coverage of wild fires in Tenerife, Greece and Canada. The smoke from forest fires in the Northwest Territories of Canada wrapped New York in choking smog. I worried about extended family in Toronto.

    The word of the month is gatekeeping – meaning to keep earned knowledge to yourself, such a personal favourite restaurant or life hack.

    Wiko stores indicates intent to file for bankruptcy and Clinton’s Cards closed a fifth of their shops. It isn’t only bricks-and-mortar retailers having problems, luxury e-tailer Farfetch closed down its beauty business. Meanwhile Rolex buys international watch retailer Bucherer, though their plans for the group aren’t clear and fire a good deal of speculation.

    China’s largest property developer Country Garden defaults on bond debt. Country Garden has been better managed than Evergrande and this shows how systemic problems are in the China property market.

    Google has one of the biggest changes that I can remember in its UK management structure; the rationale isn’t immediately apparent. Speculation starts on Meta’s microblogging platform Threads after usage drops off. OpenAI, the company who created ChatGPT is burning through $700,000 a day to run just one of their services with no clear path to profitability.

    The APG publish their results of their annual skills survey. Planners are required to have a ridiculously large set of skills, data and technology aspects were considered to be under-estimated.

    In a move that feels more like it should have been done in 2020, PayPal launches its own Stablecoin pegged to the US dollar.

    I launch a monthly newsletter published on this blog and on LinkedIn.

    September 2023

    Temperatures at the beginning of September went as high as 32 celsius. Stonegate who own the Slug and Lettuce chain of bars introduce ‘dynamic‘ aka surge pricing at the evening and during the weekend.

    Following events like the Bud Light boycott, a corresponding ‘anti woke economy‘ is emerging in the US to cater for socially conservative leaning audiences.

    The media and advertising sector continue to think that retail media will be the breakout channel for 2023. Meta stops supporting media on its platforms in Europe and faces a backlash from publishers and politicians. Rupert Murdoch announces his retirement and puts the family succession plan in place.

    Iconic computer game series Myst celebrates its 30th anniversary. Apple’s Wanderlust event sees new evolutions of its iPhone range and Apple Watch. Meanwhile IDC predicts that global smartphone sales will hit their lowest point in a decade, indicating market maturity and saturation. The UK walks back an attempt to gain access to encrypted messaging services like Signal, iMessage and WhatsApp. Technology vendors had threatened to pull out of the UK rather than attempt to comply with the proposed British regulations. Malcolm Penn’s Future Horizons updated their forecast for the semiconductor industry, predicting a return to growth. Iran’s religious leaders use artificial intelligence to issue fatwas.

    Toyota announces plans for mass production of solid state batteries for their vehicles. Production is slated to start in 2027.

    Russell Brand faces a criminal investigation, allegations including sexual assault, stalking and harassment. The media don’t bother reflecting on how the had acted as an enabler of Brand’s conduct over the years. Brand wasn’t the only one in trouble, US casino brands MGM Resorts and Caesars suffer from cybersecurity incidents that force the shutdown of their computer systems.

    Adidas’ Adizero Adios Pro Evo 1 are running shoes designed to last just one race. They cost $500 a pair.

    October 2023

    Qualcomm launches a series of processors designed to be used in personal computers. Their performance is supposed to be superior to Apple’s M2 family of processors launched back in January. A few days later Apple launches its M3 family of processors.

    Conflict breaks out on the Gaza strip with HAMAS taking hundreds of hostages and killing hundreds more. The event fractures progressive political support throughout the world.

    DeBeers resurrects their ‘A Diamond is Forever’ marketing campaign to try and arrest declining sales in both China and America. Studio Ghibli’s The Boy & The Heron has its UK premiere at the London Film Festival. It goes on UK and US general release in December.

    The Rugby World Cup is in full swing, but sponsor luxury watch brand Tudor is wrapped up in a dispute with the tournament’s referees over its role as official timekeeper.

    LVMH sees a 7 percent single day drop in share price, leading other luxury groups decline in value. Much of this decline is considered to be due to the perceived end to a golden age of luxury good consumption during the 2020s. Time will tell if this marks the luxury sector’s equivalent of the dot com bust.

    A Vogue Business research report finds that the fashion industry is still failing on size inclusivity. Meanwhile Nike collaborates with Dove on girl’s body confidence due to the confluence of their brand purpose and the realisation that a combined effort would be beneficial.

    Sales of electric cars decline year-on-year in the UK as vehicles don’t meet consumer needs in terms of range and pricing. Retail sales have hit a two year low; implying a broader cyclical downturn.

    Intelligence chiefs warn western technology companies about an uptake in Chinese attempts at industrial espionage.

    My alma mater Concentric gets acquired by Accenture Song from marketing group Stagwell. TV advertising costs have increased, but there is considerable debate on the degree of the increase. Meanwhile President Biden unveils an executive order to try and provide a regulatory framework for artificial intelligence development and distribution.

    November 2023

    The month starts with the closure of micro-blogging platform Pebble. Almost a year to the day of the bankruptcy of cryptocurrency exchange FTX, Sam Bankman Fried is found guilty of criminal charges including fraud. Russian volcano Klyuchevskaya Sopka erupts, while it was largely ignored by the media, the eruption disrupts trans-Pacific flights and air freight, affecting air routes to Korea and Japan in particular.

    The Institute of Practitioners in Advertising (IPA) and ISBA announce their principles on the use of generative AI in advertising.

    The UK hosts 2023 Artificial Intelligence Safety Summit – it probably more important in spurring a direction rather than any ‘hard outcomes’. Despite the media coverage, most of the general public didn’t care. It won’t have burnished the reputation of prime minister Rishi Sunak and his interview with Elon Musk is particularly toe-curling.

    10 Downing Street YouTube channel

    The interview is part of Musk’s launch plan for Grok – an LLM-based chat bot to compete with OpenAI’s ChatGPT and Google’s Bard.

    Disney+ is to add a ‘with ads‘ subscription option.

    Gallup withdraws from China as the communist government closes the country off from the west. The South China Morning Post – historically Hong Kong’s paper of record celebrates its 120th anniversary on November 6, 2023. The English language paper is still important for luxury brand advertisers, alongside the premium end of the food service and beverage sector. How long that will remain the case is open to debate as Hong Kong looks to replace expat talent with mainland Chinese? Hong Kong still has the potential to surprise with its hosting of the 2023 Gay Games. This was the first time that they had been hosted in Asia.

    The China Project – a media business of informative podcasts, news and events closes abruptly on the same day as the SCMP 120th anniversary – the timing was pure coincidence. Kaiser Kuo and Jeremy Goldkorn interviewed a plurality of opinions and perspectives on all aspects of China. What did join the SCMP and The China Project was that their respective founders shared a similar vision. As the SCMP founders put it in the first edition of the newspaper:

    ‘tell the truth for the good of humanity’.

    South China Morning Post editorial Friday November 6, 1903

    Eurasia Group subsidiary, GZero Media ran a survey of attendees at the 2023 Paris Peace Forum about the state of democracy around the world. Over three quarters of participants surveyed were of the opinion that democratic progress was going backwards.

    gzero survey at Paris Peace Forum

    Humane launches their AI pin. It’s an interesting mix of ideas that represents a challenge to both smartphones ‘pictures under glass’ and AR goggles paradigm, but the use case for the AI pin isn’t apparent at launch.

    Russian cyber crime outfit LockBit who managed to affect the Royal Mail’s IT systems in January, net two big whales: legal firm Allen & Overy and China’s largest bank by deposits ICBC. The ICBC infection is supposed to only affect the systems of its New York office. Given the symbiotic relationship that groups like this have with arms of the Russian intelligence services, it’s surprising that they didn’t back away from the ICBC infection.

    ICBC is a state-owned bank, in Chinese terms this is like throwing a petrol bomb at a Chinese embassy. Changpeng Zhao, CEO of cryptocurrency platform Binance steps down over money laundering controls and could do prison time.

    LinkedIn passes 1 billion registered users. WeWork files for bankruptcy, weirdly the company got additional funding from SoftBank just days before going under. SoftBank lost $16 billion from its investments and loans to WeWork. Meta and Amazon team up to reduce purchase friction between Meta advertising for items on Amazon marketplace. A new in-app experience provides seamless shopping.

    Call of Duty: Modern Warfare III launches to a worldwide marketing blitz, just in time for the Black Friday consumer fest and Christmas shopping for middle-aged Dad gamers.

    Eli Lilly has its obesity treatment Zepbound approved by US regulator, the FDA and the UK’s MRHA. The efficacy of the treatment and Eli Lilly’s scale from marketing to operations represent serious competition for Novo Nordisk’s portfolio. (Disclosure: in a past role I worked on global advertising creative campaigns for Novo Nordisk’s obesity products). Expect these medicines to dominate the consumer and media zeitgeist similar to Prozac or Viagra during their respective heydays.

    YouTube launches a policy on AI-generated or ‘synthetic content’ as they called it. AI is already used widely in many content videos to provide a consistent narrator experience, such as King Clarence’s inner voice on the Jimmy & Clarence channel which uses Siri. What’s less clear from the policy is how YouTube will detect creators who don’t comply with their rules.

    I got to spend time at the FT Future of AI conference, great to see ‘danr‘ as Yahoos knew him on stage. While the complexity of trip planning screams out as an AI use case, the solutions introduced by travel sites aren’t great. Even the Booking.com CEO admitted it to Axios. Sam Altman leaves and returns to OpenAI – the not for profit / ethical control of the business in tatters.

    UK inflation drops to 4.6% as economic growth tends towards zero. WHO posts statement on undiagnosed respiratory illnesses breaking out across northern China.

    Leica launches the first camera to support the C2PA standard which ‘vouches’ for the integrity of photography and considered as a way of helping authoritative sources to not publish misinformation.

    Charlie Munger

    Berkshire Hathaway‘s Charlie Munger dies just shy of his 100th birthday. Henry Kissinger managed to make it to a century, but many people will remember it as the day Shane Magowan left us.

    December 2023

    If COP 28 had been an instalment of a film franchise, rather than the UN Conference of the Parties of the UNFCCC, it would have been given a sub-heading of Oil Strikes Back? Ipsos’ Almanac highlights the consumer concerns about the latest generation of artificial intelligence models, the polycrisis, and the advertising keeps failing in numerous aspects of diversity.

    The UK high street took another low-key knock, Adrian’s Records – famous to record collectors around the world (and cost-conscious indie music fans of a certain age) shut their high street store. The business is still unwinding their stock via direct sales to the record retail trade and both eBay and Amazon marketplace.

    This is more down to the fact that owners Adrian Rondeau and Richard Burke are retiring. Adrian had been running the shop since 1969.

    Walmart launches Add to Heart; a short form video series that allows the audience to shop-the-look as they watch. This will run on Roku, TikTok and YouTube. Of course, this is only 18 years after Girlswalker’s Tokyo Girls Collection have been doing it…

    Robinhood, abandoned an effort to launch in the UK 3 years ago, it came back at the beginning of December with a waiting list. By comparison, fans of Grand Theft Auto will have to wait until some time in 2025 for the next instalment to drop. The trailer set in contemporary Florida has distinct synthwave vibes.

    Games Workshop has partnered with Amazon to bring Warhammer to life. Probably a smart move given how Amazon has sympathetically developed Lee Childs’ Jack Reacher series and Michael Connolly’s Bosch books.

    McDonalds delves back into their marketing archive to inspire a new format of restaurant: Cosmcs. They’re probably hope it memes like the Grimace shakes during the summer. Travis Scott’s Cactus Jack has gone from partnerships with McDonalds and Nike to hitting its acme with Audemars Piguet on a set of 200 highly customised Royal Oak watches. They are already on the secondary market for $500,000 within a week of its launch. It’s a bit of a risk, as Scott’s had moments just as controversial as Kanye West, representing brand reputational risk.

    Unilever investigated in the UK by CMA over its green claims. Having been on the inside, I can say that the green efforts are genuine. They also involve trade-offs, so refill plastic sachets would have a lower carbon footprint for transport, but they’re still plastic. Being second-guessed by regulators adds to the complexity.

    Former proprietor of the Hong Kong Apple Daily newspaper and British citizen Jimmy Lai goes on trial in a case that is expected to take about 80 days to be heard. Lai’s case is the most prominent trial under the Law of the People’s Republic of China on Safeguarding National Security in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region. Lai is charged with ‘collusion with foreign forces’ and sedition.

    Hong Kong Police announced bounties against five people overseas on on suspicion of inciting secession or colluding with foreign forces. This includes the founder of Hongkongers in Britain, and a US national working for World Liberty Congress.

    With courtroom drama taking up much of the oxygen in Hong Kong, it’s not surprising that the top grossing domestic film in 2023 was courtroom comedy drama A Guilty Conscience – which grossed five times more than any other Hong Kong film in the box office this year – and the highest grossing Hong Kong or Chinese film in city to date, surpassing the previous record set in 2022.

    The French Competition Authority €91 million ($100 million) fine for Rolex France restricting authorised dealers from selling watches online isn’t likely to benefit multi-brand dealers and instead more likely to drive vertical integration. Vertical integration was partly to blame for the fire sale of Farfetch to Korean online services firm Coupang.

    From an adidas perspective, we’re now in a post-Yeezy & post-Ivy Park world. It launched a joint venture with fashion house Fear of God as a long term collaboration a la Y-3 with Yohji Yamamoto. They indicated that they want to move away from the hype drop model that fuels secondary markets (StockXGOAT etc.) and build something ‘more sustained’. 

    While we’re on the subject of hype, it started for Christmas adverts started before Hallowe’en. The advertising industry needed a good news and the 4.8% lift (year on year) in UK advertising spend for Q4 was a sorely needed top-up for the sector. This year’s tone through the ads is more downbeat reflecting a subdued economic environment. Loath as I am to nominate one effort over another during the Christmas season; Uncommon Studios for JD Sports ‘a bag for life’ was an acknowledgement of how iconic the draw string bag is, and has been since before Liquid’s Sweet Harmony first rang out. Liquid’s Eamon (aka Ame) works making music for advertising and TV for Clerkenwell Sound Collective while releasing tracks under the Liquid name and Shane (aka Model) is still making music. Perhaps it’s better that they didn’t show how messed up your kicks will be after dancing all night in a basement or industrial unit.

    On a more serious note, the small details in this got me and gave me goosebumps; in particular the ever-present sirens of urban Britain in the background at the end. It’s not ‘Christmas’ – it’s a working class Christmas. For me, it’s timeless and adds yet more grist to the mill on thinking about things in terms of life stages rather than ‘generations’ which hides what unites us and creates false divisions. 

    Midjourney version 6 is released, so by the time St Stephen’s Day (Boxing Day for UK people) or December 26th for the rest of the world – my LinkedIn feed became flooded with images people were prompting whilst bored post-turkey dinner.

    Meanwhile WHSmith, quietly rolls out a rebrand for its shop signage with WHS. I didn’t think I would be writing about a rebrand this late in the year, but it makes sense being able to get shop fitters in during the Christmas holiday.

    The new sans serif font and blue background parallelogram confuses the media and consumers due to its resemblance to the NHS logo. While the more design conscious among us may realise that the NHS uses italics to suggest movement, whereas WHSmith uses the box instead, some consumers won’t see the nuance.

    At the time of writing, I don’t know what job the rebrand was designed to do. I have a hypothesis that the semiotics of the design were to imply that the stationery shop is a valued service to its customers (like the NHS). The consumer confusion is understandable, given that many town centres had NHS-branded COVID vaccination centres. This is part of a wider change at WHSmith; which is increasingly dependent on its travel terminus business in airports and train stations in the UK, Europe and the US.

    The rebrand hadn’t been extended to their online presence so far. If the storefront signage has been confusing, extending the rebrand to mobile web bookmarks and mobile app icons would likely cause even more confusion. Might there be enough time to consider bringing back the WHSmith ‘cube’ icon?

    I will finish up on Google’s year in search, though having done these lists for Yahoo! Search in the past, I have a good idea of how sanitised these trends reports are.

    The sales pitch

    Now taking bookings for strategic engagements or discussions on permanent roles. Contact me here.

    More on what I have done to date here.

    bit.ly_gedstrategy
  • NORA

    Last week I heard the acronym NORA mentioned with regards the kind of problems that Microsoft’s algorithm could solve. NORA stands for no one real answer. Search is already pretty good at answering questions like ‘what time is it in Osaka’ or ‘what is the capital of Kazakhstan’.

    In the mid-2000s NORA would have been called ‘knowledge search‘ by the people at Google, Yahoo! and Bing – who were the main search engine companies. So its not a new idea in search, despite what one might believe based on the hype around chatbot enabled search engines. ChatGPT and other related generative AI tools have been touted as possible routes to get to knowledge search.

    Knowledge search

    Back when I worked at Yahoo! the idea of knowledge search internally was about trying to carve out a space that useful and differentiated from Google’s approach as defined by their mission:

    To organise the world’s information and make it universally accessible and useful

    Our approach to search – Google

    Google was rolling out services that not only searched the web. It also covered maps, the content of books including rare libraries and academic journals. It was organising the key news stories and curating which publications were seen in relation to that story. It could tell you the time elsewhere in the world and convert measures from imperial to metric.

    Google’s Gmail set the standard in organising our personal information, making the email box more accessible and searchable than it had been previously. We take having a journaled hard drive for granted now, but at one time Google Desktop put a search of the files on your computer together with online services in one small search box.

    Google Desktop Mac

    Being as good as Google was just table stakes. So when I was at Yahoo! we had our own version of Google Desktop. We bought Konfabulator, that put real time data widgets on your desktop and were thinking about how to do them on the smartphone OS of the time Nokia’s Symbian S60. Konfabulator’s developer Arlo Rose went on to work on Yahoo!’s mobile experiences and Yahoo! Connected TV – a photo-smart TV system that was before the modern Apple TV apps. Tim Mayer led a project to build out an index of the web for Yahoo! as large, if not bigger than Google’s at the time. And all of these developments were just hygiene factors.

    My colleagues at Yahoo! were interested in opinions or NORA; which is where the idea of knowledge search came in. Knowledge search had a number of different angles to it:

    • Tagged content such as my Flickr photo library or social bookmarking provided content from consumers about a given site that could then be triangulated into trusted context, or used to train a machine learning model of what a cat looked like
    • Question and answer services like Quora, Yahoo! Answers and Naver’s Jisik In Service improved search. Naver managed to parlay this into becoming the number one search engine for Korea and Koreans. Google tried to replicate this success with Knol and failed
    • Reviews. Google managed to parlay reviews into improving its mobile search offering. Google acquired Zagat in 2011. This enabled Google to build a reputation for good quality local restaurant reviews. It eventually sold the business on again to another restaurant review site The Infatuation

    The ChatGPT type services in search are considered to provide an alternative to human-powered services. They create NORA through machine generated content based on large data sets trawled from the web.

    Energy consumption

    A conventional Google internet search was claimed to consume 0.3 watt/hours of power according to Google sources who responded to the New York Times back in 2011. This was back when Google claimed that it was processing about one billion (1,000,000,000) searches per day. It accounted for just over 12 million of the 260,000,000 watt hours Google’s global data centres use per day. The rest of it comes from app downloads, maps, YouTube videos.

    But we also know that the number of Google searches ramped up considerably from those 2011 publicly disclosed numbers

    Google global search volume

    The driver for this increase was mobile search including more energy intensive Google Lens and voice activated searches thanks to Android.

    Large language models (LLMs) are computationally intensive and this will result in a corresponding rise in energy consumption. That also has implications in terms of business profit margins as well as ESG related considerations.

    Legal liabilities

    With NORA content being created by machine learning services, it might be different to the previous generation of knowledge search services. These services were platforms, but machine learning services become publishers.

    This becomes important for a few reasons

    • Increased costs (while they aren’t using an army of writers, they are using a lot of computing power to generate the responses)
    • Legal protections (in the US)
    • Intellectual property and plagiarism issues, currently they can handle it just by taking down the content. Once they become a publisher rather than a platform things become more complicated

    “no provider or user of an interactive computer service shall be treated as the publisher or speaker of any information provided by another information content provider”

    Communications Decency Act of 1996.Section 230

    Section 230 has been repeatedly used to regulate Facebook, Google et al in a lax manner as they haven’t been ‘publishers’, with ChatGPT this may change. The question of whether an algorithm is a creator has some precedence. Financial reporting has used machine learning to create news reports on company financial results over a number of years. Combine that with the general political antipathy towards Meta and Alphabet from both of the main US political parties and things could get interesting very fast.

    It is interesting that OpenAI is putting a lot of thought around ethics in LLM, which will impact future services and they probably hope stave off regulation.

    Regulated industries and liability

    Given an LLM’s ability to make things up it can:

    • Gives advice without pointing out health risks by creating a workout plan or a weight loss diets
    • Gives bad legal advice
    • Infringe regulations surrounding different industries like financial services

    This is just the tip of the iceberg that NORA content powered by LLMs face.

    Business model disruption

    Search advertising as we know it has been the same for the past two decades. The disruption to the look and feel of search results through Bing’s chat response has a negative impact on Google’s advertising model with the search ads along the top and down the right hand side of the search engine results page. Instead you’ll end up with the ‘correct’ answer and no reason to click on the search adverts.

    Currently if a non-relevant site shows up in Google. The lack of relevance is blamed on the site rather than the search engine. However an error in a machine learning created NORA response will see the search engine blamed.

    Which is pretty much what happened when Google demonstrated their efforts in the area. Inaccuracies in a demonstration held in Paris cause the share price of Alphabet to decline by 7 percent in one day. Technology news site TechCrunch even went as far as to say that Google is losing control.

    Microsoft probably doesn’t have a lot to lose in Bing. So integrating ChatGPT’s LLM might give them a few percentage points of search market share. Microsoft thinks that each percent gain would be worth 2 billion dollars in extra revenue.

    The 2 billion number is an estimate and we don’t know how the use of NORA results generated by LLM will affect bidding on search keywords. That 2 billion might be a lot less.

    Is NORA the user problem that Google and Bing’s use of LLMs are fixing?

    Around about the time that Google enjoyed a massive uptake in search it also changed search to meet a mobile paradigm. Research type searches done by everyone from brand planners to recruiters and students have declined in quality to an extent that some have openly questioned is Google dead?

    Google search box

    Boolean search no longer works, Danny Sullivan at Google admitted as much here. While Google hasn’t trumpeted the decline of Boolean search, ‘power’ users have noticed and they aren’t happy. That narrative together with the botched demo the other week reinforced each other.

    Unfortunately, due to the large number of searches that don’t require Boolean strings, Google wasn’t going to go back. Instead, chat-based interfaces done right might offer an alternative for more tailored searches that would be accessible to power users and n00bs alike?

    Technology paradigm shift?

    At first the biggest shock that myself and others had seeing the initial reports was how Google and Microsoft could have been left in the dust of OpenAI. Building models requires a large amount of computing power to help train and run.

    Microsoft had already been doing interesting things in machine learning with Cortana on Azure cloud services and Google had been doing things with TensorFlow. Amazon Web Services provides a set of machine learning tools and the infrastructure to run it on.

    Alphabet subsidiary DeepMind had already explored LLM and highlighted 21 risks associated with the technology, which is probably why Google hadn’t been looking for a ChatGPT type front end to search. The risks highlighted included areas such as:

    • Discrimination, Hate speech and Exclusion although there is research to indicate that there might be solutions to this problem
    • Information Hazards – there has already been a case study on how an LLM can be influenced to display a socially conservative perspective.
    • Misinformation Harms – researchers claimed that LLMs were “prone to hallucinating” (liable to just make stuff up)
    • Malicious Uses
    • Human-Computer Interaction Harms
    • Environmental and Socioeconomic harms

    Stories that have appeared about ChatGPT and Bing’s implementation of it seem to validate the DeepMind discussion paper on LLMs.

    The Microsoft question of why they partnered with ChatGPT rather than rolling out their own product is more interesting. Stephen Wolframs in-depth explanation of how ChatGPT works is worth a read (and a couple of re-reads to actually understand it). Microsoft’s efforts in probabilistic machine learning looks very similar in nature to ChatGPT. As far back as 1996, then CEO Bill Gates was publicly talking about how Microsoft’s expertise in Bayesian networks as a competitive advantage against rivals. Microsoft relied on research and the Bayesian network model put forward by Judea Pearl which he describes in his book Heuristics.

    Given the resources and head start that Microsoft had, why were they not further along and instead faced being disrupted by OpenAI? Having worked in the past with Microsoft as a client, I know they won’t buy into anything that they can build cheaper. That raises bigger questions about Microsoft’s operation over the past quarter of a century and its wider innovation story to date.

    Flash in the pan

    At times the technology sector looks more like a fashion industry driven by fads more than anything else. A case in point being last years focus on the metaverse. The resulting hike in interest rates has seen investment drop in the field. Businesses like Microsoft and Meta have shut down a lot of their efforts, or have scaled back. It is analogous to the numerous ‘AI winters‘ that have happened over the past 50 years as well.

    Bing’s implementation of LLM is already garnering criticism from the likes of the New York Times. This new form of search may end up being a flash-in-the-pan like Clubhouse. The latent demand for NORA in search will still be there, but LLM might not be the panacea to solve it. Consumers may continue to rely on Reddit and question-and-answer platforms like Quora as an imperfect solution in the meantime.

    In summary….

    • NORA content generated by LLMs represent a new way to solve a long known about challenge in online search
    • NORA as a concept was previously called knowledge search
    • NORA content competes with: social media including Reddit, specialist review sites including Yelp or OpenRice and question and answer services including Quora
    • ChatGPT and similar services affect human perceptions of search and the experience makes them more critical of the search engine response is not of an acceptable standard
    • LLMs represent a number of challenges that large technology companies have discussed publicly, but were still attractive for some reason
    • ChatGPT shows up the the decades of research that Google, Microsoft and Amazon have put into machine learning, this will negatively affect investors attitudes to these companies and merits a more critical nuanced examination of ‘innovation’. These large companies seem to be struggling to put applied innovation into practice. Microsoft buying into ChatGPT is essentially an admission of failure in its own efforts over at least 3 decades. Even ChatGPT’s deeply flawed product is considered to be better than nothing at all by these large technology companies
    • Use of ChatGPT like services expose Google and Bing to business risks that are legal and regulatory in nature. It could even result in loss of life
    • ChatGPT’s rise has surfaced deep seated concerns amongst technologists, early adopters, power users and investors about Google’s ability to execute on innovation successfully now (and in the future). Google’s search product has been weakened over time by its focus on mobile search dominance. Alphabet as a whole is no longer seen as a ‘leader’
    • LLMs, if successful would disrupt the online advertising business model around search engine marketing
    • ChatGPT and its underlying technology do not represent a paradigm shift
    • There is evidence to suggest that ChatGPT and other LLM powered chat search interfaces could turn out to be a fad rather than a future trend. The service as implemented has underwhelmed
  • Subprime attention crisis

    Subprime attention crisis is a short book, or a long essay depending on the way you want to look at it. It was written by Tim Hwang.

    Sub Prime Attention Crisis

    About Tim Hwang

    Hwang is a lawyer working for email newsletter platform Substack. Prior to this he worked in a US think tank attached to Georgetown University: Center for Security and Emerging Technology and in public policy at Google focused on machine learning. So he brings a deep set of knowledge to writing Subprime attention crisis. One also has to bear in mind that his current employee Substack is based on the online media model moving from online advertising driven to subscription driven.

    Timing is everything

    I read this book over a couple of days at the beginning of this month. By this time, Meta and Alphabet has published quarterly results that were below what investors expected with falling sales. Add into the mix that the problems that Twitter and Snap have had (which are are bigger issues than just down to the dynamics of the online advertising market), all of which makes this book feel timely.

    On the other hand, one could also argue that much of the crisis had already landed. Ad tech businesses like Rubicon Project have either gone under or merged with their peers creating a massive amount of consolidation. The latest wave of consolidation happened in 2020 – 2021.

    Meta-specific issues

    Even with Meta and Alphabet there are business specific issues. Meta has struggled to compete effectively with TikTok. The poisonous nature of debates on Facebook, together with an aging audience on the platform hasn’t helped. In fact it’s a wonder that the context collapse that the platform has suffered from for at least the past six years hadn’t dragged it down yet. WhatsApp has helped enrich Facebook data and provided a channel for business services. At the time Facebook bought the business partly because Zuckerberg needed a brain trust for the future. The brain trust is gone and Zuckerberg’s dive into the Metaverse looks very similar to Apple’s peak John Sculley moment with the Knowledge Navigator concept. You can see glimpses of the Knowledge Navigator in the smartphone, the iPad, the now abandoned WikiReader product or the use of contextual information and national language processing like Siri. Apple didn’t waste the kind of money that Meta has spent chasing an illusory vision of the future.

    Alphabet-specific issues

    I was surprised that Alphabet growth had lasted this long based on the following considerations:

    With mobile, Google also pivoted a different type of search from product search to where is my nearest coffee shop with free wifi and has managed to sell search ads against them. This meant that Amazon and eBay managed to capture a lot of product searches, with consumers only hitting up Google afterwards and Amazon’s advertising has been eating Google’s lunch. Secondly a lot of the high street and neighbourhood shops have been eaten alive by food delivery services and this was then exasperated by the COVID which has changed at least some people’s consumer behaviour

    Historically, Google has been too focused on looking for multi-billion dollar opportunities which haven’t panned out and closed down smaller services that were making money and bringing in attention. In essence, over the years they have thought Google Reader, the Google Search Appliance, Google Health, Boston Dynamics and several other projects were the big payday. They weren’t, but they were respectable business opportunities, just too small for Google to want to pursue. In its wake Google had destroyed entire sectors, or turned them into cottage industries such as enterprise search and knowledge management, RSS newsreaders autonomous robots

    Web search in general has become less effective at doing deep research for consumer and B2B needs – no more support for boolean operators is a case in point. This has had some tech forward netizens wondering if the likes of Reddit fulfils the vision of knowledge search in place of Google and Alphabet being concerned about young people using TikTok as their local search box instead

    “something like almost 40% of young people when they’re looking for a place for lunch, they don’t go to Google Maps or Search, they go to TikTok or Instagram.”

    Google internal report quoted by Business Insider

    YouTube seems to struggle getting brand building advertising dollars in the face of TikTok, Instagram and this explains why you saw a decline in sales over 2 percent. Instead you see a lot of D2C product ads a la day trading and drop shipping courses advertised. Part of this might be down to the product. YouTube has been screwing over creators and creators have made it clear that they’re not happy. You don’t need to go to YouTube if you get the directors cut of your favourite creators content on Patreon or Curiosity Stream. Censorship of political analysis content around China or Ukraine seems to be particularly bad. 

    Back to Subprime attention crisis

    Hwang in Subprime attention crisis points out many of the things that agency employees and owners have known for years:

    • Online advertising effectiveness has declined compared to its performance 25 years ago
    • Audiences don’t see a lot of the ads that are displayed. Different reports will give you different numbers on this
    • Online advertising is destroying the very media industry that its content is shown on
    • Online advertising fraud is a big problem
    • Online advertising business practices are an even bigger problem with up to 70 percent of of online programmatic advertising spend going to advertising technology intermediaries such as The Rubicon Project (now Magnite) and Xaxis
    • This has allowed businesses like Procter & Gamble and adidas to reduce advertising spend at no loss in effectiveness. In the case of P&G Subprime attention crisis highlights how they cut $200 million in online advertising spend, moved that spend on to offline media like radio and print AND managed to increase their reach by 10 percent.

    More on adidas via its inhouse head of media Simon Peel

    One of the most notable things for me was being introduced to the work of Australian based academic Nico Neumann who has done some great research on online advertising effectiveness related areas including Frontiers: How Effective Is Third-Party Consumer Profiling? Evidence from Field Studies.

    So nothing surprising for insiders, but….

    Hwang marshals his facts well. Which is what you would expect from a lawyer. He uses analogous examples from the US financial services sector including the 2008 financial crisis. The book itself is 141 pages in length and there is a substantial section detailing his sources. Subprime attention crisis is based exclusively on desk research.

    More on the book here.

  • Animoca Brands + more news

    Animoca Brands

    Animoca Brands: How a big bet on blockchain and NFTs minted Hong Kong’s latest unicorn | South China Morning Post and more here The Sandbox developer Animoca Brands sees private valuation surge to US$5 billion amid metaverse, NFT frenzy | South China Morning Post – Animoca Brands has come up fast with The Sandbox. NFTs have become a bubble in Hong Kong. I was chatting to a good friend of mine who is now based in Shanghai. We talked about people we used to know who worked at various technology vendors. All are now involved in NFT businesses. The South China Morning Post has partnered with The Sandbox themselves. And then there is the speculation in metaverse property by Hong Kong’s oligopoly: Hong Kong property tycoons, brokers snap up virtual land in metaverse as valuations soar | South China Morning Post and deals like: CSOP AM launches metaverse ETF in Hong Kong | Financial Times 

    Animoca Brands is the face of a NFT bubble that feels curiously like the dot com era. Will there be a place for NFTs? Possibly. Will Animoca Brands be its Amazon or its Pets.com? I don’t know. But I feel queasy about the Hong Kong NFT wave that Animoca Brands are the poster child for. Particularly when on most other economic and societal metrics Hong Kong is running the other way; with a brain drain and economic decline.

    Beauty

    Omicron hits Wuhan, centered on cosmetics staff training – Global Times – centred around a training event by western beauty brand and multilevel marketing firm Nu Skin Enterprises – disclosure I used to work on the NuSkin brand in China and Hong Kong

    China

    Indian Tax Authorities Raid China’s Huawei, Triggering Protest From Beijing – WSJ

    Games changer: How China is rewriting global rules and Russia is playing along – European Council on Foreign Relations – Beijing and Moscow are unlikely to rush to each other’s aid during a military escalation, be it in Ukraine or over Taiwan. But the enabling environment of their mutual diplomatic support matters greatly

    Design

    Shedding some light on “dark patterns” and advertising regulation – ASA | CAP – “dark patterns” encompass a range of misleading advertising practices that have long been regulated under the CAP Code, and some of which reflect practices that are banned in all circumstances under consumer protection law.  The CAP Code has long applied to online advertising (including companies’ own websites), and many of the common “dark patterns” align with issues that the ASA is well-versed in regulating

    Economics

    UK risks spending more on defence equipment than it can afford, warns watchdog | Financial Times – damning NAO report

    Ukraine conflict will have a significant impact on Asia – Nikkei Asia – Look for the crisis to consolidate alignment among Asia’s democracies

    China Loosens New Mobile Payment Rules to Put Small Businesses at Ease – Caixin Global – the benefits of mobile payment oversight is going to mean less small and medium sized businesses fiddling their tax returns than currently happens

    Energy

    Tesla’s reverse on battery cells signals shift for electric vehicles | Financial Times 

    Wind Industry Warns EU to Take Urgent Action as China Rises – Bloomberg – wind industry will get screwed over just like solar and telecoms have been

    Ethics

    Ronn Torossian Admits To “Ethical Lapses” Amid News Site ControversyPRSA-NY’s board of directors unanimously voted to condemn Torossian and 5WPR in response to the story. “In addition to being a cowardly and blatant violation of PRSA’s Code of Ethics, Ronn’s actions are a stain on our profession and undermine our role as guardians of facts and integrity for those we serve. We strongly condemn his and his firm’s direct role in perpetrating disinformation while pretending to be a legitimate industry news site,” said PRSA-NY’s board said in a statement. Torossian is no stranger to controversy, having been criticized over the years for his aggressive PR tactics, and is taking steps to remain in the public eye amid this one. Doing that has included issuing two press releases since the story broke — one offering Torossian’s list of “PR Rules” and another with marketing podcast recommendations. – so the lesson is basically break the rules while you’re small, apologise with no repercussions when you get larger

    EU to punish rights abuses in supply chains, with forced labour ban to follow | South China Morning PostBloc will require large companies to ensure their supply chains are free of human rights and environmental abuses, with fines for failing to comply. But the issue of forced labour, particularly complex for firms active in China, is not covered by the EU, which will address it with a separate ban

    Depicting older people in ads – ASA | CAPCommunicating about ageing and older people in a positive way can help to tackle negative perceptions of ageing, and older people, but negative and offensive stereotypes about ageing and older people are still common. Using stereotypes about age in advertising may breach the CAP Code, and our guidance is designed to help advertisers ensure that they do not include offensive depictions of, or references to age in their advertising. – but is this really going to change in the ad industry when ageism is endemic from the top down in the industry – from hiring policies and representation to board level views held by the likes of Mark Read

    FMCG

    Advertising zero alcohol products – ASA | CAPMarketers should, however, take care not to mislead consumers by implying that a product contains no alcohol at all if it contains any. For some consumers, whether for health, religious, or other reasons, the presence of a small amount of alcohol may be material information and therefore required to be present with reasonable prominence. Although the ASA has not formally ruled on such a circumstance, marketers are best advised to take a cautious approach when marketing a drink that is usually alcoholic (such as a non-alcoholic beer) but has been adjusted to bring it below the 0.5% ABV threshold. For instance, we would strongly recommend that ads contain a reference to the ABV alongside any ‘alcohol free’ or similar claims. – interesting that the ASA felt the need to put this notice out

    Hong Kong

    Hong Kong to allow in doctors from mainland China as Covid cases overwhelm hospitals | Hong Kong | The Guardian – its also got an ideal opportunity to build up a DNA data bank of every Hong Kong resident which will help matching against debris from the 2014 and 2019 protests

    Ideas

    Lecturers admit self-censoring classes with Chinese students | The Times – Academics are self-censoring to avoid causing offence to students from authoritarian states such as China, a new report has said. Two thirds said they believed that academic freedom was under threat in higher education and more than two fifths felt the same about their freedom to select teaching content. The survey of 1,500 social science faculty members across a range of British institutions was conducted by academics from Oxford, Exeter and Portsmouth universities.

    Innovation

    Tencent-backed academic network to launch ‘open access’ journals | Financial Times 

    Startup Turns “Unrecyclable” Plastic Into Giant, Indestructible Construction Bricks it reminds me of Timbuk2’s lamitron experiment and might run into the same legal issues: Target Shuts Down Timbuk2’s Recycled-Plastic-Bag Messenger Bag Project « Mission Mission

    Japan

    Sony Ventures Corporation hits first close of its $215M fourth fund  | TechCrunch

    China temporarily detains Japanese diplomat | The Japan Times – interesting that China is manufacturing a dispute with Japan

    Korea

    Toronto bakery is burnt by a cultural appropriation feud | Financial Times – it is interesting to read about how Chinese cultural appropriation of Korean intangible national treasures has spilled over on to the western social networks. Naturally Vancouver seems to be at the centre of this maelstrom

    Luxury

    Sports car maker Lotus explores IPO options to fund global expansion | Financial Times

    Materials

    Chinese Researchers Uncover Massive Lithium Mine in the Himalayas | Sixth Tone – the Russians did extensive geological surveys and the US did a similar survey using a lot of satellite technology in Afghanistan and the nearby areas

    Easy aluminum nanoparticles for rapid, efficient hydrogen generation from water — Nano Magazine – if this can be commercialised; this has a huge impact for the nascent hydrogen economy

    Media

    Inside Facebook’s $10 Billion Breakup With Advertisers – WSJ – Apple’s privacy settings have affected e-commerce advertising on Facebook and advertising sales have dropped. It would be interesting to see if there was a geographic breakdown on this. If this is people like the Chinese online direct to consumer commerce and drop shippers, thats a big issue for Facebook. It already has issues with big brands in terms of ad quality, brand safety and skepticism over the reliability of Facebook’s ad metrics that is based on past behaviour

    Online

    Google Search Is Dying | DKB – interesting discussion on the Google search experience for early adopters. It is the kind of things that I have complained to friends about. It also shows the relative power of Reddit – which brings us back to the Yahoo! ideas around knowledge search circa 2005/6

    Retailing

    John Menzies accepts sweetened takeover offer | Financial Times 

    Security

    Attack on Ukrainian Government Websites Linked to GRU Hackers – bellingcat 

    Technology

    Intel in Israel: A Semiconductor Success – by Jon Y 

    Web of no web

    TikTok Wants to Avoid Facebook’s Mess. Its Corporate Culture Could Complicate That — The InformationTwo years ago, a team of TikTok employees in China—where the hit video-sharing app’s parent company, ByteDance, is based—were excited to show their colleagues in the U.S. a preview of some new features they’d been working on. But the Americans were troubled when they saw one of them, which would let TikTok users darken or lighten their skin tone—a feature the U.S. employees feared would spur the creation of culturally insensitive videos featuring blackface, according to three people with direct knowledge of the matter. In another meeting, the China TikTok team showed their American counterparts a different feature that used an algorithm to scan users’ faces and tell them whether they were “beautiful” or not, according to one person who saw the presentation. After some employees raised concerns about the features, TikTok decided against launching them in the U.S.

    Web3: A Map in Search of Territory

    China introduces state-backed NFT platform unlinked to cryptocurrencies | South China Morning Post

    Tencent-led project becomes first UN-approved standards initiative on NFTs, known as ‘digital collectibles’ in China | South China Morning Post 

    Tencent quietly updates QQ with Unreal game engine in possible metaverse move | South China Morning Post 

    Chinese firms scramble to register metaverse trademarks despite Beijing’s warnings of risks | South China Morning Post 

    China’s growing market for NFTs, metaverse could foster new money-laundering schemes, central bank official warns | South China Morning Post 

    China plans to accelerate blockchain development and adoption in push to become a world leader in the technology by 2025 | South China Morning Post 

    Meta shows ad agencies metaverse—it looks a lot like Snapchat | Ad Age 

    Wireless

    Telenor investors scrutinise Myanmar sale | Reuters