I have over 106,000 Avios, enough to get me from Heathrow to Hong Kong first-class and still have some left over. These are frequent flyer points given out by British Airways. I have a lot of them and wanted to spend them. Unfortunately, I haven’t been able to cash them in the four times or so that I have tried. In fact I wasn’t able to book a Heathrow to Hong Kong flight in any class of travel. I admit, I was more than a little disappointed. But my curiosity was bigger than my disappointment and so my last failed Avios experience got me thinking.
In fact when I went forward a month or so I still couldn’t get a Heathrow to Hong Kong flight, apart from one flight which required a stopover in Riydah, Saudi Arabia. The Riydah stopover isn’t really an option at all, unless one is:
A Saudi national
Part of the tour group (of four or more) with a Saudi visitors visa
In possession of a Saudi business visa, which requires an invitation from a Saudi company
In possession of a Saudi employment visa
If you don’t fit into any of those categories, you aren’t allowed to transit through a Saudi airport, this would include the lions share of the BA customer base. In other words, I had two hopes: Bob Hope and no hope.
So I did an unscientific survey amongst my contacts and found that they’d managed to spend their Avios (and their predecessor Air Miles) on trans-Atlantic flights occasionally, but mostly for short-haul European flights. They like me had found it hard to book longer haul flights.
This time I tried going through customer services who checked and told me that there were no reward flights available when I wanted to go. I enquired via the British Airways Twitter account about trading options and they said how would one put a monetary value on Avios?
So bear with me whilst I break this down:
There are a limited number of rewards seats, how many on the journey I want to go? I don’t know. Where they go or when they are, apart from searching via the British Airways site. It isn’t exactly a transparent process, what proportion of seats could notionally qualify? This sounds to me like the start of a game of chance, rather than the traditional rewards scheme like my local coffee shop, Superdrug or Boots cards.
Why are there a limited number of seats? Presumably to reduce the redemption rate down to an ‘acceptable’ level. Given that Avios are earned in proportion to transactions:
Airline flights
Promotional partner purchases
Credit card transactions
This implies that there is some form of monetary value exchange by the affiliate marketing parter, there is some from of monetary value to British Airways and by implication there is some form of monetary value (after BA has taken it’s cut) to the consumer (me).
So how do we derive a value? I suspected it is likely to vary according to route. Here are some examples based on single flights from London (all airports) on December 1, 2012, versus how many Avios the trip requires. I have taken out taxes from the flight price to make the comparison between the payment methods fair. I have also not included the credit card surcharge and picked the cheapest flight shown. All data has been provided from the British Airways website with a currency setting in pounds:
Destination | class
Avios
Price in pounds
Avios/Pound
Hong Kong (1st)
91,000
7,312.01
12.4453
Hong Kong (business)
60,000
4,709.01
12.7416
New York (1st)
60,000
6,822.71
8.7942
New York (business)
40,000
4,199.71
9.5245
Dubai (1st)
60,000
3,627.01
16.5426
Dubai (business)
40,000
2,755.01
14.5190
Helsinki (1st)
22,500
439.95**
51.1422
Helsinki (business)
15,000
439.95
34.0948
Manchester (business)
4,500
2.60*
1,730.7692
* Avios lists a business class option to Manchester, the ticket booking system only offers economy. The price is minus the airport tax.
** Avios lists a first-class option to Helsinki, the ticket booking system only offers business and economy class
So this is a very small sample size, but there seems to be some sort of pricing strategy at work, which implies that British Airways has some sort of notional value on the Avio as a currency unit and they are trying to elicit customer behavioural change and maximise the Avios/pounds price that they get for flights.
I presume that they would probably move around reward seats to use Avios iron out gaps in demand. But given that Avios price can alter, why does British Airways need to also restrict demand with ‘reward seats’ availability?
Given this research there are a number of attributes that I think would go into deriving a the notional value of an Avios if it was to be traded:
Where I want to go and when I want to go which dictate a probability of getting hold of a reward seat
How long the Avios are needed for. If you want to fly next week, it doesn’t matter whether the Avios you are buying the flight run out in a month or four years time. If you are buying Avios to use in 12 months their expiry date matters more
Some of these attributes start to make Avios look like a derivative, so an algorithm similar to the Black-Scholes equation would factor in:
The risk that you wouldn’t be able to spend the Avios
The notional value of the Avios based on where market players actually want to go to rather than where British Airways wants to game their flight plans to go
In a market like Points.com, were Avios to be floated as currency or against other rewards programmes, one maybe able to see their true value. A massive deflation in their value would support my hypothesis of Avios not being rewards per se, but more analogous to a lottery ticket.
And such a situation would be counterproductive to customer loyalty, because the gamed nature of the programme would become more readily apparent. Imagine if you were told you can enter a game of maybe getting on some flights for free (excluding airport taxes), but more points doesn’t necessarily increase your chances of winning. British Airways Avios customer loyalty scheme wouldn’t seem so attractive, would it?
I’d leave the final words to John Lydon:
Ever get the feeling you’ve been cheated? Good night!
which he apparently said at the end of the last Sex Pistols concert, Winterland Theater, San Francisco, California January 14, 1978. More marketing related content can be found here.
If you’re like me you read far more journalist analysis of the wireless phone market than is good for you. I thought that it would be instructive to have a look at what consumers are looking for instead and look for any patterns. After sales availability and visibility consumer interest is probably the biggest determinator of success. My weapon of choice was Google Insights for Search. My research was based on a few assumptions about consumer interest in the wireless space and some limitations in the tool that I was using:
Consumers know what type of smartphone that they want
Consumers decisions aren’t carrier loyal
Consumers used Roman script to search for the brand
Search is a good proxy for consumer interest – it hasn’t been disrupted by Facebook in this regard yet despite what others may tell you
China despite being the world’s largest market isn’t going to be providing meaningful data because Google Insights for Search doesn’t cover that market
The Russia sample is indicative of overall consumer sentiment in Russia (Yandex is a big search player in Russia)
Consumer Interest in platforms Some of the biggest interest in handset brands is in the developing world. In many respects this is their PC revolution. In developed Asian markets like Hong Kong and Singapore there is a much higher interest than EU countries – partly because of on-the-go lifestyles and partly because of the economic cataclysm that the western world is facing. The iPhone still attracts the most interest, but what is interesting is the acceleration that Android seems to have in terms of increasing interest. Microsoft’s efforts, whilst lauded by critics haven’t yet turned into consumer interest. Research In Motion’s Blackberry platform seems to be down but not out yet in the consumer stakes.
Nokia
I took a snapshot of consumer interest in Nokia over the past three months to try and see what effect the global launch campaign for Nokia’s Windows phones are doing to consumer interest in the brand.
I deliberately didn’t compare them to the iPhone because Nokia themselves acknowledge that they are competing against Android handset makers like HTC and Samsung. Nokia launched the Lumia phones with their biggest marketing campaign ever and had a lot of column inches written about the brand alongside a gamut of marketing commnications tactics from experiential events and advertising to point of purchase.
Whilst Nokia’s new range of Lumia phones have had a substantial marketing budget put in place, but it doesn’t seem to have significantly affected search interest: it’s not quite living up the Amazing Everyday billing yet. This is also the case for Windows Phone with interest remaining consistently low in comparison to the Nokia brand. I think that the stubborn consumer disinterest in Windows Phone is a big challenge.
I’ve had a number of links sent to me that were too good not to share with you all: Donkey Bong, Graff Jewellery, PBS on porn and more.
Donkey Bong
JoeCartoon clogged up many networks in the late 90’s with his un-PC and puerile flash animations, creating characters like the Cheech & Chong ‘Stoned Fly’ and Gerbill. The most memorable animations like the frog in the blender and gerbil in the microwave allowed office workers to unleash the passive sadism that lies beneath us all and put the phrase Who’s ya Daddy? into popular English usage. His work has defined what a viral campaign is. He is back with another dollop of surreal weirdness and ultraviolence in Donkey Bong. More on it here.
Graff Jewellery
No not Graff – the most fabulous jewels in the world, but graffiti enabled by the reverse setting on a diamond ring by Tobias Wong. Get caught making use of your ring to make your mark on the world by tagging car and train windows, luscious pearlescent paint work on a TVR or your boss’ computer screen. You can see Tobias’ diamond project here.
PBS On Adult Entertainment industry
OK, we are currently pitching for a UK-based adult entertainment orientated television channel and web site, this this website designed to complement a PBS Frontline documentary on the adult entertainment industry was useful for research into the business . Seriously though, looking at this, there are some scary people out there, interesting facts – a starlet in the industry has an average career lifespan of just 12 months. Sombre, disturbing and yet compelling reading here. Glamourous like Boogie Nights it ain’t.
Supercharged Records
Email text from Supercharged Records: “Click on the link below to hear an exclusive preview of all the tracks from the forthcoming Freestylers ‘Raw As F**k’ album!
Turn audio off on the front page and click on ‘album info’ and then ‘preview album’
http://www.thefreestylers.com/
We would also like to take this opportunity to say thank you to all of you how have purchased Push Up. Thank you!
The album is out in the UK on the 5th July, contact you local record store to pre-order a copy!”
Hydrogen power and hydrogen fuel cells have been around for decades. Hydrogen power fuel cells as an invention were invented in the 19th century. The modern hydrogen fuel cell was refined before the second world war and have been used in NASA’s space programme since Project Apollo. The space programme’s use of hydrogen power inspired General Motors to create a hydrogen fuel cell powered van in 1966. By the late 1980s, BMW had developed a hydrogen-powered engine which it trialled in its 7-series vehicles a decade later.
By the mid-2010s there were four hydrogen power passenger cars using fuel cells: Honda Clarity, Toyota Mirai, Hyundai ix35 FCEV, and the Hyundai Nexo. BMW is collaborating with Toyota to launch another four models next year.
In addition in commercial vehicles and heavy plant Hyundai, Cummins and JCB have hydrogen power offerings. JCB and Cummins have focused on internal combustion engines, while Hyundai went with hydrogen fuel cells. The aviation industry has been looking to hydrogen power via jet turbines.
Hydrogen power offers greater energy density and lower weight than batteries. Unlike batteries or power lines, hydrogen can be transported over longer distances via tanker. So someplace like Ireland with wind and tidal power potential could become an energy exporter.
The key hydrogen power problem has been investment in infrastructure and an over-reliance on batteries. Batteries bring their own set of problems and a global strategic dependency on China.
Toyota is now warning that if there isn’t imminent international investment, that China will also dominate the supply chain, exports and energy generation in the hydrogen economy as well. It feels like me reaching a historic point of no return.
Skincare you can wear: China’s sunwear boom | Jing Daily – A jacket with a wide-brim hood and built-in face shield. Leggings infused with hyaluronic acid to hydrate while shielding skin from the sun. Face masks with chin-to-temple coverage. Ice-cooling gloves designed to drop skin temperature. In China, UV protection apparel isn’t just functional — it’s fashionable, dermatological, and high-tech. Once a niche category for hikers or extreme sports enthusiasts, China’s sunwear market has exploded into a $13 billion category blending climate adaptation, anti-aging culture, and the outdoor lifestyle wave. While other apparel segments slow, the sunwear sector is projected to reach nearly 95.8 billion RMB ($13.5 billion) by 2026 expanding at a CAGR of 9%, according to iResearch.
MACAU DAILY TIMES 澳門每日時報Beware of Li Kashing’s supersized value trap – But as the initial excitement starts to fade, investors are growing nervous, wary of a billionaire family that has a poor track record on shareholders’ returns. The Li clan takes pride in the myriad of businesses and markets it operates in. But what kind of value-add can a diversified conglomerate offer when globalization is out of favor and geopolitical risks are on the rise? CK’s de-rating has accelerated since Trump’s first term, with the stock trading at just 35% of its book value even after the recent share bump. The complex business dealings have made enterprise valuation an impossible task. In a sign of deep capital market skepticism, CK seems to have trouble monetizing its assets. Its health and beauty subsidiary A.S. Watson is still privately-held, a decade after postponing an ambitious $6 billion dual listing in Hong Kong and London. Softer consumer sentiment in China, once a growth market, has become a drag. Last summer, CK Infrastructure did a secondary listing in the UK, hoping to widen its investor base. – Rare direct criticism of CK Hutchison’s conglomerate discount.
Ghost in the Shell’s Creator Wants to Revisit the Anime, But There’s One Problem – Production I.G’s CEO Mitsuhisa Ishikawa—who produced both Ghost in the Shell films—spoke at the event. Ishikawa revealed a key obstacle preventing a third film: finances. He explained that Innocence had an enormous budget, estimated at around 2 billion yen (approximately $13 million), with profits reaching a similar figure. However, the film was planned with a ten-year financial recovery period, and even after 20 years, it has yet to break even.
‘Gucci’s 25% sales collapse should shock no one’ | Jing Daily – “Gucci is so boring now.” “They’ve lost all their confidence.” “It feels desperate — just influencers and celebrities.” Comparing Gucci’s bold, visionary eras under Tom Ford and Alessandro Michele and today’s safe, uninspired iteration reveals a stark contrast. That classroom moment reflected a broader truth: Gucci’s Q1 2025 is not a temporary dip. It’s the result of a deeper structural identity crisis — arguably one of the worst brand resets in recent luxury history.
Welcome to my April 2025 newsletter, this newsletter marks my 21st issue.
21 marks a transition to full adulthood in various countries, hence ‘keys to the door’ in bingo slang. In Chinese numbers, symbolism is often down to phrases that numbers sound like. 21 sounds like “easily definitely fine” – indicating an auspicious association with the number.
For some reason this month I have had Bill McClintock’sMotor City Woman on repeat. It’s a mash-up of The Spinners – I’ll be Around, Queensrÿche – Jet City Woman and Steely Dan – Do it Again. It’s a bit of an ear worm – you’re welcome.
New reader?
If this is the first newsletter, welcome! You can find my regular writings here and more about me here.
Things I’ve written.
Cleaned up copy of an interview I did as a juror for the PHNX Awards. More here.
From the challenges faced by Apple Intelligence to drone deliveries and designing in lightness.
I thought about how computing tends towards efficiency along the story arc of its history and its likely impact on our use of AI models.
Books that I have read.
The Leftover Woman by Jean Kwok. The book is a complex thriller. The story is straight forward, but the books covers complex, fraught issues with aplomb from misogyny, the male gaze to the white saviour complex.
The Tiger That Isn’t by Michael Blastland and Andrew Dilnot focused on the use of numbers in the media. But it’s also invaluable for strategists reading and interrogating pre-existing research. As a book is very easy-going and readable. I read it travelling back-and-forth to see the parents.
A Spy Alone was written by former MI6 officer Charles Beaumont. I was reminded of the dreary early 1970s of George Smiley’s Britain in Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy by the tone of the book. However A Spy Alone is alarmingly contemporary, with oblique references to UK infrastructure investments in the UK attached to a hostile foreign power, private sector intelligence, open source intelligence a la Bellingcat, nihilistic entrepreneurs and a thoroughly corrupted body politic. Beaumont’s story features a post cold-war spy ring in Oxford University echoing the cold war Cambridge spy ring. Beaumont touches on real contemporary issues through the classic thriller, in the same way that Mick Herron uses satire.
Things I have been inspired by.
Big brand advertising isn’t as digital as we think.
Trends in TV 2025 by Thinkbox threw up some interesting data points and hypotheses.
Advertising is eating retail property. A good deal of search and social advertising gains is not from traditional advertising, but traditional retailing, in place of a real-world shop front. This is primarily carried out by small and medium-sized enterprises. I imagine a lot of this is Chinese direct-to-consumer businesses. 80% of Meta’s revenue is not from the six largest advertising holding companies.
Viewership across video platforms both online and offline have stabilised in the UK. (Separately I heard that ITV were getting the same viewership per programme, but it’s been attenuated with the rise of time-shifted content via the online viewership.
World views
WARC highlighted research done by Craft Human Intelligence for Channel 4 where they outlined six world views for young adults. While it was couched in terms of ‘gen-z’, I would love to see an ongoing inter-cohort longitudinal study to see how these world views change over time in young people. This would also provide an understanding of it it reflects wider population world views. BBH Labspast work looking at Group Cohesion Score of gen-Z – implies that this is unlikely to be just a generational change but might have a more longitudinal effect across generations to varying extents.
Anyway back to he six world views outlined:
‘Girl power’ feminists. 99% identified as female. About 21% of their cohort. “While they’re overwhelmingly progressive, their focus tends to be on personal goals rather than macro-level politics. They underindex heavily on engagement with UK politics and society.”
‘Fight for your rights’. 12% of cohort, 60% female, educated and engaged with current affairs. “Although they consider themselves broadly happy, they believe the UK is deeply unfair – but believe that progress is both necessary and achievable.”
‘Dice are loaded’ are 15% of their cohort. 68% female. “Feeling left behind, they perceive themselves to lack control over their future, and are worried about finances, employment, housing, mental health, or physical appearance.”
‘Zero-sum’ thinkers comprise 18% of their cohort. Over-index at higher end of social-economic scale, gender balanced. “…they lean toward authoritarian and radical views on both sides of the political spectrum.”
‘Boys can’t be boys’ are 14% of the cohort and 82% male. Supporters of traditional masculinity.
‘Blank slates’. 20% of their cohort, all of them male. “They aren’t unintelligent or unambitious, but they pay little attention to matters beyond their own, immediate world. While some follow the news, their main focus is on just getting on with life”.
At the beginning of March, Unilever abruptly replaced its CEO. Hein Schumacher was out, and in the space of a week CFO Fernando Fernandez became CEO. That showed a deep internal dissatisfaction with Unilever’s performance that surprised shareholders AND the business media. Over the past decade Unilever has leaned hard into premium products and influencer marketing.
“There are 19,000 zip codes in India. There are 5,764 municipalities in Brazil. I want one influencer in each of them,” Fernandez said. “That’s a significant change. It requires a machine of content creation, very different to the one we had in the past . . . ”
Fernandez wants to lean even harder into influencer marketing. But I thought that there was a delta on this approach given his goal to have higher margin premium brands that are highly desirable.
“Desirability at scale and marketing activity systems at scale will be the fundamental principles of our marketing strategy”
Meanwhile Michael Farmer’s newsletter had some datapoints that were very apropos to the Unilever situation.
“…for the fifty years from 1960 to 2010, the combined FMCG sales of P&G, Unilever, Nestle and Colgate-Palmolive grew at about an 8% compounded annual growth rate per year. The numbers associated with this long-term growth rate are staggering. P&G alone grew from about $1 billion (1960) to $79 billion in 2010. Throughout this period, P&G was the industry’s advocate for the power of advertising, becoming the largest advertiser in the US, with a focus on traditional advertising — digital / social advertising had hardly begun until 2010. Since 2010, with the advent of digital / social advertising, and massive increases in digital / social spend, P&G, Unilever, Nestle and Colgate-Palmolive have grown, collectively, at less than 1% per year, about half the growth rate of the US economy (2.1% per year). They are not the only major advertisers who have grown below GDP rates. At least 20 of the 50 largest advertisers in the US have grown below 2% per year for the past 15 years. Digital and social advertising, of course, have come to dominate the advertising scene since 2010, and it represents, today, about 2/3rds of all advertising spend.”
Mr Fernandez has quite the Gordian knot to try and solve, one-way or another.
Automated communications and AI influencers
Thanks to Stephen Waddington‘s newsletter highlighted a meta-analysis of research papers on the role of automation and generative AI in communications. What’s interesting is the amount of questions that the paper flags, which are key to consideration of these technologies in marketing and advertising. More here.
LinkedIn performance
Social Insider has pulled together some benchmarking data on LinkedIn content performance. It helps guide what good looks like and the content types to optimise for on LinkedIn. Register and download here.
Chart of the month.
The FT had some really interesting data points that hinted at a possible longitudinal crisis in various aspects of reasoning and problem solving. There has been few ongoing studies in this area, and it deserves more scrutiny.
In his article Have humans past peak brain power, FT data journalist John Burn-Murdoch makes the case about traits which would support intelligence and innovation from reading, to mathematical reasoning and problem solving have been on a downward trends. The timing of this decline seems to correlate with the rise of the social web.
If true, over time this may work its way into marketing effectiveness. My best guess would be that rational messages are likely to be less effective in comparison to simple emotional messages with a single-minded intent over time. This should show up in both short term and long term performance. A more cynical view might be that the opportunity for bundling and other pricing complexities could facilitate greater profit margins over time.
Things I have watched.
Akira Kurosawa’s Stray Dog is a film that I can watch several times over despite the film being over 75 years old now. Detective Murakami’s trek through the neighbourhoods of occupation-era Tokyo and all the actors performances are stunning. The storytelling is amazing and there are set pieces in here that are high points in cinema history. I don’t want to say too much more and spoil it for you, if you haven’t already seen it.
Ghost in the Shell: Standalone Complex – Solid State Society – this is a follow on to the original GiTS manga and anime films touches directly on the challenges faced looking after Japan’s aging society. Central to the story is the apparent kidnapping over time of 20,000 children who can’t remember who their parents are. The plot is up to the usual high standard with government intrigue, technical and societal challenges.
The Wire series one – I stopped and started watching The Wire. Films better suited my focus at the time. I finally started into series one this month. The ensemble cast are brilliant. The show is now 22 years old, yet it has aged surprisingly well. While technology works miracles, the slow methodical approach to building a case is always the same.
How Much Does Your Building Weigh, Mr Foster – is a fantastic documentary covering the career of architect Sir Norman Foster. I remember watching it at the ICA when it originally came out and enjoyed watching it again on DVD. Foster brings a similar approach to architecture that Colin Chapman brought to his Lotus cars. When we are now thinking about efficiency and sustainability, their viewpoints feel very forward-thinking in nature.
Useful tools.
Fixing the iOS Mail app
You know something is up when media outlets are writing to you with instructions on how they can remain visible in your inbox. The problem is due to Apple’s revamp of the iPhone’s Mail.app as part of its update to iOS 18.2.
So how do you do this?
Open Mail.app and you can see the categorised folders at the top of your screen, under the search bar.
Find each tab where an a given email has been put. Open the latest edition. Tap the upper right hand corner. Select ‘Categorise Sender’. Choose ‘Primary’ to make sure future emails from this sender are in your main inbox view.
That’s going to get old pretty soon. My alternative is to toggle between views as it makes sense. Apple’s inbox groupings are handy when you want to quickly find items you can delete quickly. Otherwise the single view makes sense.
Inspiration for strategists
Questions are probably the most important tool for strategists. 100 questions offers inspiration so you can focus on the right ones to ask for a given time.
The sales pitch.
I have been worked on the interrogation process and building responses to a couple of client new business briefs for friends (Red Robin Ventures and Craft Associates) and am now working a new brand and creative strategy engagement as part of an internal creative agency at Google.
If you’re thinking about strategy needs in Q4 (October onwards) – keep me in mind; or discussions on permanent roles. Contact me on YunoJuno and LinkedIn; get my email from Spamty to drop me a line.
Ok this is the end of my April 2025 newsletter, I hope to see you all back here again in a month. Be excellent to each other and onward into spring, and enjoy the May bank holidays.
Don’t forget to share if you found it useful, interesting or insightful.
Get in touch if there is anything that you’d like to recommend for the newsletter.
