Category: economics | 經濟學 | 경제학 | 経済

Economics or the dismal science was something I felt that I needed to include as it provides the context for business and consumption.

Prior to the 20th century, economics was the pursuit of gentleman scholars. The foundation of it is considered to be Adam Smith when he published is work An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations. Smith outlined one of the core tenets of classical economics: each individual is driven by self-interest and can exert only a negligible influence on prices. And it was the start of assumptions that economists model around that don’t mirror real life all the time.

What really is a rational decision maker? Do consumers always make rational decisions? Do they make decisions that maximise their economic benefit?

The problem is that they might do actions that are rational to them:

  • Reducing choice when they are overwhelmed
  • Looking for a little luxury to comfort them over time. Which was the sales of Cadbury chocolate and Revlon lipstick were known to rise in a recession
  • Luxury goods in general make little sense from a ration decision point of view until you realise the value of what they signal
  • Having a smartphone yet buying watches. Japanese consumers were known to still buy watches to show that they care about the time to employers when they could easily check their smartphone screen

All of which makes the subject area of high interest to me as a marketer. It also explains the amount of focus now being done by economists on the behavioural aspect of things.

  • Machine learning powered services + more

    Machine learning powered services

    Intelligent Relations – Matt Muir nails this in his take down of their machine learning powered media relations platform – Vapid, largely-pointless busywork which despite its almost universal lack of import is nonetheless treated by its practitioners as somehow REALLY VITAL and with a reverence normally reserved for stuff that matters rather than with the disregard appropriate for an industry staffed largely by double-figure-IQ morons. Anyway, that’s all by way of preamble to the introduction of Intelligent Relations, a new company which is set to make PR even worse if you can imagine it. Intelligent Relations (it sounds…it sounds like an escort agency for the sort of people who bother applying to Mensa, is what it sounds like) is PR, but with AI! That’s right, AI! The MAGICAL SECRET SAUCE that makes EVERYTHING BETTER and definitely isn’t a sign that someone is attempting to sell you some magic beans! Just listen to this – “GPT-Powered Outreach, 24/7 analysis of all relevant public event data to identify opportunities and pitch your company’s stories faster than the competition…Relentless customized global outreach based on AI-ranked relevancy to your brand. Generate responses that start, nurture, and build personal relationships with media influencers. Put your execs and your company in the heart of the conversation. No agency. You own your relationships – not your PR firm…Precisely worded campaigns, aggressively scaled with technology. Faster than humans, more personal than email blasts.” So, er, you are outsourcing the writing of pitch emails, and followups, to a machine? Have, er, you read any non-tweaked GPT-3 generated copy recently? – All of this stuff about machine learning powered media relations reminded me of the start of my agency career.

    I was working with an agency that was part of the Interpublic Group. We were riding the technology boom of the mid-to-late 1990s. This was a series of booms that were inter-related.

    • Telecoms boom, came from deregulation, the rise of data services, globalisation and the internet
    • Enterprise software boom driven by Moore’s Law, the ability to interconnect systems and exchange data at rates previously unseen. There was a strong incentive to replace old systems due to concerns about the millennium bug
    • Mobile boom as GSM networks and their CDMA equivalent democratised the mobile phone and allowed for nascent data services
    • The dot.com boom as companies built service layers over the top of data networks. Much of the ambition was way ahead of where technology was
    • Hardware boom. Businesses and consumers needed to get online

    Our CEO at the time Larry Weber came over to the office in Covent Garden, met clients and held court. He turns around to the junior staff and tells them how soon they won’t have to worry about manually contacting journalists or compiling status reports. Instead, the contact work will be outsourced to the Philippines (thanks to the telecoms boom). And data that was entered once in the company intranet WeberWorks would through the power of Lotus Notes be diced into the reports that the clients needed.

    WeberWorks in its first iteration was a proof of concept, not a viable product. Though I believe that the successor agency Weber Shandwick stuck with developing the platform.

    22 years later and agency life faces much the same problems, except an algorithm is touted to replace Filipino call centre workers in this scenario. What does machine learning powered media relations have that a Filipino call centre doesn’t? How will the PR profession grow when the on-ramp for people to learn how it works is now taken over by a machine learning powered media relations service instead?

    A lot of PR technology is based on the expectation that (machine learning powered) content will be fed into a media sausage factory and coverage will come out. But relationships are important, as journalists get hundreds of pitches and press releases per day.

    Consumer behaviour

    Phoenix eyes’ on catwalk of mainland academy’s fashion gala draw fire for insulting China |AppledailySome netizens accused the university of humiliating China after a video of the event on YouTube showed that most of the models either had an eye shape known as phoenix eyes, or were using eyeliner to present the same appearance. The eye shape, which is identified by a slight upward lift at the outer corner of the eye, is considered a desirable facial feature. However, some people regard it as a harmful stereotype reinforced by Western culture and the fashion industry. One influential blogger on Weibo, China’s dominant social media platform, said that because this look conforms with the stereotypes of ethnic Asians it carries a meaning of serious humiliation – this might be what passes for woke in China. The story was originally published in the English version of the Apple Daily Hong Kong on June 21, 2021 three days before the paper closed down. I have linked to to a Wayback Machine archive of the article.

    Political trolling twice as popular as positivity, study suggests – BBC News – unsurprising as taps into system 1 thinking

    Economics

    Competition and concentration | Financial TimesThe 1980s financialisation of the US economy created a mindset that manufacturing did not matter — and that it should therefore be shifted to lower-cost labour markets. The high value-added stuff, including R&D, would remain onshore. It didn’t turn out like that. Like any other activity in life, manufacturers learn by doing, which means that the most effective innovation usually takes place alongside production. That’s why so many of America’s most impressive companies, including Intel, shifted a lot of their R&D to China – great take on globalisation here. It also gives a sense of where the FT’s view is on the process

    Private equity ‘raid’ on UK companies sparks furious row in City | Financial Times – best quote in the comments ‘The British should be relieved to have their assets stripped by relatively familiar, relatively transparent organizations. It may be the Chinese next.’

    The Evolution of Corruption in China | Foreign Affairscorruption comes in distinct flavors, each exerting different social and economic harms. The public is familiar with three main types. The first is petty theft: police officers shaking down people on the street, for example. The second is grand theft: national elites siphoning off massive sums from public treasuries into private accounts overseas. The third is speed money: petty bribes paid to regular officials to bypass red tape and delays and grease the wheels of bureaucracy. All three types are illegal, vociferously condemned, and rampant in poor countries. But corruption comes in another, more elusive variety: access money. In this kind of transaction, capitalists offer high-stakes rewards to powerful officials in exchange not just for speed but also for access to exclusive, lucrative privileges, including cheap credit, land grants, monopoly rights, procurement contracts, tax breaks, and the like. Access money can manifest in illegal forms, such as massive bribes and kickbacks, but it also exists in perfectly legal forms – I was thinking of the favoured firms during the British empire and the chaebols during the Park presidency in South Korea. The chumocracy of UK politics is closer to speed money

    Ideas

    Digital Addiction Hunt Allcott, Matthew Gentzkow, and Lena Song (NBER.org working paper)Many have argued that digital technologies such as smartphones and social media are addictive. We develop an economic model of digital addiction and estimate it using a randomized experiment. Temporary incentives to reduce social media use have persistent effects, suggesting social media are habit forming. Allowing people to set limits on their future screen time substantially reduces use, suggesting self-control problems. Additional evidence suggests people are inattentive to habit formation and partially unaware of self-control problems. Looking at these facts through the lens of our model suggests that self-control problems cause 31 percent of social media use. – or in other words social media is like big food, the illegal drugs industry, alcohol, tobacco and gambling (PDF)

    Innovation

    Losing sight of the Future – Noahpinion – interesting article but the author forgets about energy density as an issue in their own predictions whilst mentioning it as a flaw in prior ones

    Marketing

    The fashion marketing shake-up: As Instagram, Facebook costs surge, where next? | Vogue Business – marketing inflation is hitting the fashion industry as platform and influencer costs surge, but sales don’t. More online related content here.

    North Face Owner Pulled Xinjiang Criticism, Then Reinstated It – WSJ – VF Brands struggling to navigate divergent Chinese and western markets. Its not been a good week for VF Brands as the Futurelight logo court case with Futura is bring a lot of unwelcome attention to the North Face brand and may blow on to its Supreme brand.

    McDonald’s, Wendy’s Cut Back Value Meals, Focus on Pricier Food – this is partly inflation. But I think that they are working an angle to squeeze premium burger brands: Five Guys, Gourmet Burger Kitchen (GBK), Byron Burger and similar

    Retailing

    S.Korea retailer E-Mart buys eBay’s S.Korean business for $3 bln | Reuters – purchased by Shinsegae – part of Samsung chaebol

    Technology

    Panasonic defends $7bn Blue Yonder deal after questions over price | Financial Times – interesting that Panasonic bought Blue Yonder. Blue Yonder is a supply chain software provider

    Wireless

    EE to reintroduce Europe roaming charges in January – BBC NewsEE, which is part of BT Group, previously said it had no plans to reintroduce roaming charges in Europe. – No plans meant that they didn’t have their act together at that time, typical BT in other words

  • PostScript + more things

    PostScript

    Adobe is dropping PostScript Type 1 font support. Be prepared for the change – huge move, given the amount of time that PostScript had been at the centre of design and print. There must be brands out there still using Type 1 fonts for standard print design work that haven’t changed style in 30 years beyond a logo tweak. Without PostScript fonts you couldn’t have had the laser printer or modern design software tools

    Business

    Amazon Exploding Hoverboard Case Could Forever Change Company – BloombergLast month, a California appeals court ruled that Amazon can be held liable, even though the seller stored and shipped the device itself. The decision sent shockwaves through the e-commerce world. Though it will probably be appealed again, the ruling raises the possibility that Amazon might have to exert more control over the activity on its own website. “Courts are rejecting the internet exceptionalism idea when it comes to a company like Amazon,” Agnieszka McPeak, a Gonzaga University professor, told Bloomberg Law. – It could also have implications for companies like Shopify

    Sennheiser to spin out its consumer audio business | EE News Europe – AKG got sold off by the family, Sennheiser is selling off its iconic headphone business. This leaves only Beyerdynamic – Sennheiser sells auido business to hearing aid maker | EE Times Europe 

    South Korea’s Kakao to buy two U.S. storytelling apps for $950 million | Reuters

    Why SoftBank’s THG deal has more questions than answers | Financial TimesWhat exactly the Ingenuity business does is something of a riddle: chief executive Matthew Moulding described it as a “social media influencer platform” but it also handles the prosaic business of logistics and translations for third parties launching in new markets – I don’t get The Hut Group (THG), maybe they’re bad about telling their story?

    Luxury

    Why Victoria’s Secret Body Positivity Spin Won’t Work in China | Jing DailyVictoria’s Secret’s has a long history of glamorous supermodel perfection, therefore this choice is seen as inauthentic for the Chinese consumer and has left many citizens bewildered. Global brands need a localized approach in China, but one that resonates convincingly with the company – on Victoria’s Secret trying be more inclusive and body positive

    Technology

    EVs Will Drive A Lithium Supply Crunch – IEEE Spectrum – not new news, but interesting that it is being highlighted by electrical engineers now just as many electric cars are coming to market. More lithium related content here

    Web of no web

    Northrop Breaks Into DARPA’s Blackjack « Breaking Defense – Defense industry news, analysis and commentarysoftware-defined Positioning, Navigation and Timing (PNT) technology will offer military users an agile new signal from low Earth orbit (LEO) that is not dependent on existing satellite navigation systems – it could be interesting to see what new services can be built on this eventually

  • Bullwhip effect aka Forrester effect

    Bullwhip effect

    I came across the bullwhip effect as a descriptor recently in discussions around the global chip shortage. Bullwhip effect is a concept that is well known in supply chain circles.

    The bullwhip effect is also known as the Forrester effect. Disruption ripples back from the retailer, through the wholesaler, manufacturer, on to their suppliers and so on.

    The usual causes for the effect are:

    • Demand forecast updating – this might be where a company might want to change their product mix to match consumer demand, if a product is very successful or grossly underperforms
    • Order batching – where members of the supply chain round up, or round down the quantity of orders. This happens with the periodic memory gluts or shortages affecting the technology sector
    • Price fluctuations – price discounts can encourage non-linear increases in purchases as it becomes worthwhile for customers to stock up, hedging against increased prices down the line. Oil reserves would be a classic example of this phenomenon
    • Rationing and gaming – buyers and sellers delivering over or under their order quantities. An example of this would be the actions of Enron in US electricity markets. This could be used in a positive way to promote changing the supply chain like renewable sources of electricity generation
    My, what a big holster you have.

    What caused the global chip shortage that is driving the bullwhip effect?

    There were three causes to the global chip shortage

    1. Partial shutdown – The semiconductor industry went through a partial shutdown because of the COVID-19 epidemic. This meant that there was a smaller supply of chips.
    2. Unusual increase in demand – Home working drove an increase in demand: increased sales in PCs, wi-fi routers, external hard drives, mice, keyboards, printers and so on. There was also a corresponding increase in home entertainment as consumers upgraded smart TVs, Apple and Roku set top boxes. This all coincided with the launch of the next generation of gaming consoles by Sony and Microsoft – which can usually drive a squeeze on their own
    3. Supply chain disruption – A fire in Japan at Renesas Electronics. A trade war affecting Chinese semiconductor manufacturers. Freezing winter weather in Texas disrupting employees and their businesses. Now there is a drought in Taiwan affecting TSMC – the world’s largest semiconductor foundries

    More related posts here.

    More information

    Chip shortage is starting to have major real-world consequences 

    Global chip shortage: everything you need to know | CAR Magazine

    The global semiconductor shortage can be explained by the bullwhip effect 

    Chip industry pressures spur Renesas to diversify | Financial Times

    Taiwan’s chip industry under threat as drought turns critical | Financial Times

    Texas winter storm blackouts hit chip production | Financial Times

  • Standard Chartered + more news

    Standard Chartered

    Standard Chartered to cut branch network in halfStandard Chartered is to reduce its global branch network by half to around 400 to cut long-term costs after the UK bank reported a stronger than expected first quarter profit. The Asia, Africa and Middle East-focused lender, which had as many as 1,200 branches worldwide in 2014, said today it will shrink the network to a third of that total as it also gives up office space worldwide – this move by Standard Chartered seems to be a short term move to try and please investors

    Temple of Mamon

    Consumer behaviour

    Sex sells: China farm region becomes ‘lingerie capital’ | Hong Kong Free Press HKFP around 2013, volumes soared as younger Chinese consumers began discovering their sensuality, Lei said. Most buyers are now between 22 and 25. Initially, loose-fitting, not-too-revealing designs were favoured in China. Today, semi-transparent, “body-hugging” numbers dominate

    Why are South Korea’s young men turning against Moon Jae-in and his ruling party? | South China Morning PostUnpopular housing policies and a backlash against Moon’s perceived ‘feminist’ agenda has seen support for his Democratic Party administration collapse among Korean men in their 20s and 30s. Not so among young women, however – meaning victory for the opposition is far from guaranteed at the next presidential elections set for March 2022

    As boundaries between work and home vanish, employees need a ‘right to disconnect’

    Glancing at your phone quickly prompts other people to do the same | New ScientistSuch a rapid, automatic response is probably due to people mimicking each other without realising it – what scientists call the “chameleon effect”. While such mimicry is thought to have evolved in human societies to help people bond with each other, mimicking mobile phone use might have the opposite effect, says Elisabetta Palagi at the University of Pisa, Italy. “We have a need to follow the norms imposed on us by people around us, to [match] our actions with theirs in this automatic way,” she says. “But smartphones can increase social isolation through interference and disruption with real-life, ongoing activities.” – digital yawning

    Economics

    The panopticon of Germany’s foreign trade: New facts on the first globalisation, 1880–1913 | VOX, CEPR Policy PortalThe history of globalisation is usually told in two parts, separated not only by two world wars but also by changes in technology, institutions, and economic logic. This column reconsiders that narrative. Using detailed new evidence on Germany’s foreign trading practices from 1800 to 1913 (the ‘first’ globalisation), it finds that most growth took place along the extensive margin, while 25–30% of trade was intra-industry. If the first globalisation saw substantial heterogeneity within countries and industries, it may be time to re-think the ‘classical’ versus ‘new’ trade paradigm

    Ethics

    Mediatel: Mediatel News: An ill-advised alliance & cross-media measurement pinch-points – Bob Wootton on the moral bankruptcy of P&G circumventing audience privacy measures on Apple devices in China

    Finance

    E-Residency joins campaign against IBAN discrimination | Estonia E-Residency Blog

    Media

    WordPress Saves Creative Commons Search Engine From Shutting Down 

    Pandemic propels Thai mom with ‘nothing to lose’ into internet pornstar | Coconuts BangkokAnd when the internet sees a woman posting sexy nudes, it usually assumes she does porn. At first Fernie hated those insinuations. She felt insulted and would block anyone called her a “porn star.” But it eventually wore her down and, in the way of internet grooming, became a kind of self-fulfilling prophecy as the messages kept pouring in“When I got them that frequently, I started to think of them as compliments,” she said with a giggle. “Then the thought of, ‘If I sell nude pics, I might as well sell porn,’ came to my mind, because they’re similar anyway.” More content related to adult entertainment here.

    Security

    Havana syndrome: NSA officer’s case hints at microwave attacks since 90s | Espionage | The Guardian

    China’s regulator names 33 apps including Baidu, Sogou, iFlytek, Tencent for unauthorised data collection | South China Morning PostThirty three apps from Tencent, Baidu, Sougou and more are among the latest to receive scrutiny over user data. App makers will have to comply with new privacy regulations banning collection of data and forcing user consent

    April 30, 2021 – Letters from an American – really interesting post on information warfare and the way the US body politic is looking at it

    Taiwan bans recruitment for jobs in China to combat brain drain – Nikkei Asia 

    Technology

    Toyota will showcase its hydrogen-powered Corolla at Super Taikyu event – Toyota is definitely thinking about a hydrogen future due to the limitations of lithium ion battery cars. Motorsport is where a lot of research and development happens for car and commercial vehicle manufacturers

    Why has TSMC’s Nanjing expansion plan stirred up a hornets’ nest in Beijing and Taipei? | South China Morning PostTSMC says expansion will help it address chip shortage, particularly for automotive sector. One analyst says move could stifle domestic chip development on the mainland

    Baidu will offer first paid robotaxi service in China next month, letting people hail rides without drivers

  • Conglomerate discount

    Conglomerate discount wasn’t a concept that I was that familiar with. Conglomerates had gone out of style in the west during the 1960s to the 1990s.

    Western conglomerates

    Classic conglomerate examples would be

    • GEC
    • ITT
    • Litton Industries
    • Lonhro
    • Teledyne
    • Textron

    Spivs and financiers bought in and broke them up into their constituent parts. Or a new CEO would do it themselves to focus on core competencies and release value for shareholders.

    Conglomerate discount

    A conglomerate discount is when the stock market values a diversified group of businesses and assets at less than the sum of its parts. This is because investors are worried about the management not being able to focus on improving the operational performance and figuring out a coherent strategic direction.

    Michael Milken moderating the panel on Investing African Prosperity  - Los Angeles, 1 May 2013
    Michael Milken who was famous for financing leveraged buyout deals

    Taking advantage of a conglomerate discount

    So our spiv financier could borrow money, buy the company at a discount. Sell off parts to pay off the loan and be left with more money than they initially had to borrow. Many of the constituent companies couldn’t be sold quickly as a going concern. Instead they were shut, machines sold for scrap and their factory land sold for redevelopment.

    Asian conglomerates

    Asian business people, especially those running Hong Kong and Chinese companies don’t view conglomerates in quite the same way.

    Li Ka Shing 李嘉诚
    Li Ka shing

    The Li family manage two publicly listed companies in Hong Kong. They came out of the merger of Cheung Kong Holdings and Hutchison Whampoa.

    Cheung Kong

    Cheung Kong Industries was formed in the 1950s as a plastic flower manufacturer during the post-war industrialisation of Hong Kong. It evolved into a property investment company after the 1967 riots and Cheung Kong Holdings was established in 1971. Over the next decades it became one of Hong Kong’s largest developers and land owners.

    In 2015, the group went under a reorganisation, the groups property assets were spun off into what is now CK Asset Holdings.

    Hutchison Whampoa

    Hutchison Whampoa was bought in 1979. HSBC had a strategic holding in the company and sold that on to Cheung Kong. They also provided Cheung Kong with the loan to make the purchase. In 2015, Cheung Kong bought the parts of Hutchison Whampoa that it didn’t already own. It eventually became CK Hutchison Holdings, incorporating all the non-property aspects of the Cheung Kong – Hutchison Whampoa combine.

    In addition, the Li family have some of the shares in businesses that they own held in the Li Ka shing Foundation (LKSF).

    CK Hutchison and CK Asset Holdings

    CK Hutchison Holdings and CK Asset Holdings both trade at a conglomerate discount. However, the Li family has a controlling share in them. This probably explains why they haven’t come under attack by an activist shareholder from within China or abroad.

    In his article for Apple Daily Yeung Wai-hong explains how the Li family uses the concept of conglomerate discount to their advantage.

    The CK Hutchison Holdings and CK Asset Holdings creation allowed shareholders to see clearly delineated businesses. One focused on property, the other one on non-property assets in 2015.

    CK Asset Holdings started to blur the lines buying into businesses that more sensibly fit into CK Hutchison Holdings – aircraft leasing, pubs and utilities. Creating conditions for a conglomerate discount that is disadvantageous to non-family shareholders. The bigger business has a larger turnover. Even if the profit margin is lower, management still have an excuse to raise their salary and benefits.

    CK Asset Holdings has a large amount of cash on hand indicating a lack of investment opportunities. Recently CK Asset Holdings bought shares in utilities from LKSF in exchange for shares in CK Asset Holdings.

    I’ll let Yeung Wai-hong explain the next bit

    …CK Asset promised to buy back shares equivalent to the amount of HK$17 billion and cancel them. Whether the equity will be diluted is up to the minority shareholders. If they do not accept buyback, their equity will be diluted; if they do, then it won’t. The buyback price is about 10% more than the average share price of CK Asset, so the minority shareholders do have a chance to cash in at a “high price.” However, the buyback price of HK$51 per share is only 53% of the net asset value after deducting the debt. So accepting the buyback is like allowing Li’s family to grab a bargain at half price.

    Conglomerate discount by Yeung Wai-hong, Apple Daily Hong Kong (March 29, 2021)

    If that happened outside Hong Kong there would be shareholder class action suits. The theory goes that these trades slowly put the squeeze on minority shareholders at a discount. Transferring value to the Li family. Eventually allowing for a gradual privatisation of the business at the expense of retail shareholders.

    Once this has been done the value of the assets at their full price can be realised. More finance related content here.

    More information

    ‘Conglomerate discount’ | Yeung Wai-hong | Apple Daily 

    Britannica, T. Editors of Encyclopaedia. “Conglomerate.” Encyclopedia Britannica, September 26, 2007.