Innovation, alongside disruption are two of the most overused words in business at the moment. Like obscenity, many people have their own idea of what innovation is.
Judy Estrin wrote one of the best books about the subject and describes it in terms of hard and soft innovation.
Hard innovation is companies like Intel or Qualcomm at the cutting edge of computer science, materials science and physics
Soft innovation would be companies like Facebook or Yahoo!. Companies that might create new software but didn’t really add to the corpus of innovation
Silicon Valley has moved from hard to soft innovation as it moved away from actually making things. Santa Clara country no longer deserves its Silicon Valley appellation any more than it deserved the previous ‘garden of delights’ as the apricot orchards turned into factories, office campus buildings and suburbs. It’s probably no coincidence that that expertise has moved east to Taiwan due to globalisation.
It can also be more process orientated shaking up an industry. Years ago I worked at an agency at the time of writing is now called WE Worldwide. At the time the client base was predominantly in business technology, consumer technology and pharmaceutical clients.
The company was looking to build a dedicated presence in consumer marketing. One of the business executives brings along a new business opportunity. The company made fancy crisps (chips in the American parlance). They did so using a virtual model. Having private label manufacturers make to the snacks to their recipe and specification. This went down badly with one of the agency’s founders saying ‘I don’t see what’s innovative about that’. She’d worked exclusively in the IT space and thought any software widget was an innovation. She couldn’t appreciate how this start-ups approach challenged the likes of P&G or Kraft Foods.
I was first aware of MEMS (micro-electromechanical system) with Texas Instruments DLP chips in projectors which were key to digital cinema and vast improvements in home projectors alongside LED light sources. I did a bit of freelance work for AOL Germany and had a review of the DLP technology that had been installed in Leicester Square and used to show the remastered original Star Wars trilogy. Depending on the MEMS, they do not even have mechanical parts.
They are classified as MEMS because they use structures used in conventional machinery, such as springs, channels, cavities, holes and membranes. Some MEMS devices convert a measured mechanical signal into an electrical or optical signal, they may also be referred to as transducers. In Japan, MEMS are more commonly known as micromachines, and in European countries, MEMS are more commonly referred to as microsystems technology (MST).
MEMS are in every modern smartphone as digital compasses and accelerometers that provide essential functionality for these phones. Asianometry provide a really good background of the potential in MEMS.
The Goodwill Project
The Goodwill Project published an interesting spoken word work by Milorgia (Georgia Anne Muldrow and Milo better known as R.A.P. Ferreira). You can hear more of the project on the Bandcamp page. It’s an interesting freewheeling collaborative work that draws from R&B and hip hop.
Russia’s situation
Interesting interview with Russian opposition politician Vladimir Milov at the Austrian Institute For Europe and Security Policy. Some of the comments about the importance of the Orthodox Church in Russia has been overblown in importance is very interesting.
Saab 900
Big Car did a great history of the original Saab 900, for a car that was as revolutionary in the 1980s as Tesla had been in the 2010s. The reality is that the Saab 900 was a mix of clever engineering and hand me down parts from the likes of British Leyland.
Saab never managed to get scale in its car business, which was the reason why it disappeared under the disastrous ownership by General Motors. However, looking at other manufacturers like Rover Group, there is no guarantee that an alternative owner could have done any better. The Saab 900 Turbo, alongside the Audi Quattro was the stuff of my pre-teen automotive dreams.
Iain Tyrell this tour around a beautiful example of the Saab 900 Turbo 16S. His detailed explanation on turbos is really interesting. Its also interesting to hear that its a bit lighter than a Porsche Boxster.
Lessons from Ukraine
Interesting BBC segment on how the Ukraine war is changing the nature of war. Integrating information into the fighting is interesting. Their assumptions about the tank doesn’t take into account that the Russians haven’t used infantry and armoured vehicles in a tactically smart way. Infantry without tanks are vulnerable, as are tanks without infantry.
Sheryl Sandberg is leaving Meta. She has roughly 1.6 billion reasons never to work again – that isn’t lives ruined by Facebook, but her net worth on leaving Meta after 21 years at Google and Facebook building advertising sales operations teams.
Sandberg’s resignation has been a long time coming, and was repeatedly predicted since the early 2010s when the toxic nature of Facebook’s ad model became apparent. You had the sense that she viewed herself as a presidential candidate in waiting. Her exhortations to lean in were at odds with the ‘tech bro’ culture that still permeates Meta and other Silicon Valley firms. Sandberg leaves Meta with her reputation in tatters and with less chance of becoming president than More on Sheryl Sandberg leaving Meta here: Sheryl Sandberg calls it quits – by Casey Newton & Axios Login: Sandberg’s ad jackpot
Number of Hongkongers applying for BN(O) scheme rises 25 per cent in first quarter of 2022, likely from families applying before new school year | South China Morning Post – Some 123,400 Hongkongers have applied for pathway to British citizenship since January 31 last year, with 92 per cent of them successful. Canada, Australia have offered alternative routes, but immigration experts say BN(O) and Canadian programmes will remain most popular. – A few observations on this. There has been a strong historic connection between Hong Kong and Vancouver going back to at least the 1967 riots. The South China Morning Post used to have a Vancouver column until April this year. Prominent people like Li Ka-shing had their families there. There is a similar connection with the UK, though I found that I was running into more Canadians than British born Chinese during my time in Hong Kong. Secondly, the dominance of mainland Chinese in creating a threatening atmosphere for Hongkongers in Australia is a big issue
Ideas
Should Cities Disband their Police Departments? – ScienceDirect – the short answer social science data research says no they shouldn’t. The long answer. Unlike the UK, in the US large towns can have their own police forces. There are then county sheriffs departments and state police as well. Closing a ‘city police department just means less responsive policing with less crime solved, less transparent data indicating the quality of policing going on. Crime still happens.
FT’s How To Spend It magazine rebrands as big spenders go out of style | Financial Times | The Guardian – The How To Spend It name was created in 1967, when the FT’s first female employee suggested the wives of its readers might enjoy a section on how to spend their husband’s income. It later became a standalone magazine, riding the luxury goods – and financial services boom – of the 1990s and 2000s. Alice Pickthall, of Enders Analysis, told a 2018 Guardian long read that the magazine was best understood as the “Argos catalogue for rich people” – my issue with HTSI has been less about nice things and more about the lack of quality many of the items have in terms of design, build quality and longevity
Marketing
How the 968CS rebuilt the Porsche powerhouse | Financial Times – ‘You don’t understand: if we don’t get a car at under £29,000 then we’re dead’,” says Gaskell, now 63, a multiple non-executive director, investor and speaker – and a transatlantic rowing record-holder too. He got together with some colleagues to work out how to get a 968 priced at £28,995. “Out went air conditioning, electric windows, rear seat, rear wiper, boot lock – and the big electric driver and passenger seats were replaced with lighter ones.” They got it down to £28,975, then realised they had another problem: “Buyers wouldn’t like saying they’d bought a cheap Porsche.” The solution was to position it as a “lightweight” road-racer. “We lowered the suspension, quietly had a special steering wheel made for us by Italian manufacturer Momo – the factory would have gone nuts if they’d known – and called it the ‘Club Sport’. A couple of professional drivers reported that it was a fantastic driver’s car. We’d accidentally created a game-changer, and in 1993 it was named ‘Performance Car of the Year’.” – interesting tale about innovating in adversity. There are a some bits missing however. Porsche had form making lightweight cars like this, notably the Porsche 911 Club Sport from 1987. So there was a ready use case, concept and language that could be adapted for the cheap 968 rather than a completely new creation as implied by this article.
Media
Amazon to close China Kindle Store after losing out to domestic rivals | Financial Times – Amazon will leave behind a growing customer base of digital book lovers. More than 500mn Chinese listened to or read books on a digital device in 2021, according to research by the China Audio-video and Digital Publishing Association. China’s digital reading market generated more than Rmb40bn ($6bn) of sales last year, an increase of more than 18 per cent from 2020 – back when I started going to China there was a substantial trade in purchasing Kindle tablets from the US and Japan. For regulatory reasons Amazon China has been slow to get into e-books. So local competitors fuelled a parallel trade in Kindles. These tablets were then refreshed and pointed to local e-book stores. It must be galling to Amazon to know that not only did they lose out on e-tailing in China, but the subsidised Kindles from other markets built China’s rivals in e-book sales.
What’s next for Glossier as founder Emily Weiss steps down after eight years | Vogue Business – Glossier is famous for popularising millennial pink in its stores, its zip-lock bubble pouch and for pioneering everyday beauty in an industry obsessed with perfection. However, signs of internal shifts began earlier this year when the beauty brand laid off nearly one-third of its staff, according to an internal email obtained by Modern Retail. It also enlisted the singer and Gen Z favourite Olivia Rodrigo to promote the brand in April, after years of relying on its own community. There have been other bumps in the road. Two years ago the sub-brand Glossier Play closed, and the brand was also called out by former store employees who made allegations about racist behaviour and a toxic work culture. Glossier publicly apologised. – for many marketers in the beauty and personal care space Glossier was the poster child of a ‘new way’ of brand building. It looks as if it wasn’t the new way at all and its had to pivot to more conventional means.
Glossier is moving from scrappy start-up to a mainstream beauty brand. Will Weiss stepping back mean that Glossier will be up for sale?
Consumer behaviour
How Labour lost the Indian vote in the local elections – New Statesman – new Indian immigrants have more in common with Rishi Sunak than with the 1970s East Africans. Born to a wealthy, upper-caste Hindu family, this immigrant is likely to have attended one of India’s most prestigious private schools, aspiring to attend an Ivy League university. They were raised by domestic help who cooked and cleaned for them. Sunak embodies the Indian upper middle class. He understands the new wealthy India. Hell, he’s a card-carrying member of the new wealthy India: the Stanford educated son-in-law of one of the biggest Indian tech families, born to middle-class Indian doctors. This means that when Labour draws attention to Sunak’s elitist background, it makes him more appealing to both Indian demographics. He achieved the social mobility the 20th-century immigrants hoped for for their children, and he is a member of the family that encapsulates the new elite India
Economics
All the reasons why so many near-retirees are going back to work — Quartz – the pandemic may have been an even bigger setback to this age group than the current data suggests. There may be many older workers who want to return to work right now and are facing well-established obstacles, such as age discrimination, that make it much harder for an older employee to be rehired after leaving or losing a job, Davis suggests. Going back to work after retirement? It’s complicated. The data also don’t indicate how many of the people who went back to work would have preferred to retire, but couldn’t—a sign that the system could be failing them
Is British science aiding and abetting the Chinese human organ trade? – Last month, for example, a government bill was passed banning British citizens from travelling overseas to purchase an organ. Accompanying this awareness is a growing unease in western academia. Eminent medics are starting to look back uncomfortably on decades of “constructive engagement” with the Chinese medical establishment – those all-expenses-paid trips to lecture budding surgeons, and the profitable arrangements to train batches of them in the west. Meanwhile editors of academic journals are scouring their back issues for too-good-to-be-true studies on organ transplants, that may have arisen from experimentation on human guinea pigs in places such as Xinjiang. In October last year a world-renowned Australian transplant doctor, Professor Russell Strong, called on all Chinese surgeons to be banned from western hospitals to prevent them using the skills they pick up there in the organ harvesting market. Now, a leading human rights body has warned medical equipment manufacturers – among others – that they might be prosecuted if their kit is found to be used in the illegal Chinese trade. – this is going to expand areas of decoupling
Unilever’s Samir Singh: Sustainability shouldn’t burden consumers with guilt or expense | Campaign Asia – existential threats to the personal care business wouldn’t just come from being innovation laggards, but could also come from feisty D2C brands or strong local rivals eating into market share. Here, Singh is more concerned about one over the other. “Despite the noise, D2C brands have made no impact on market share charts in the personal care business,” he contends. “You will hear a lot about them for the first six months to a year, (then) they will peak and then in two or three years, they tend to disappear.” Instead, it is strong homegrown local brands that worry Singh more. He points out that across categories ranging from deodorants to skin care and across markets ranging from India to Indonesia, Unilever has felt local threats to its storied global brands. These brands have been able to compete on price, innovation, distribution and brand recall. “While we have been winning with our global names, these local brands have taken market share from us previously,” he admits. – this looks like headstone for the DTC CPG boom, other comments about sustainability are interesting as well
Chanel profits skyrocket 171% on price hikes, Americas gains | Vogue Business – Chanel famously increased the prices of its iconic handbags last year (the small Classic Flap bag rose by an average 21 per cent in 2020 and a further 30 per cent in 2021, according to Jefferies analyst Flavio Cereda) and said a twice-year price adjustment is the norm for the brand. Price increases “depend on product categories and countries because it depends if the currency in one country has moved in a direction. There is not a single pricing decision which has been made in January. Usually, we revise, we adjust prices when we have to, twice a year.”
Joint Venture Between High-Tech Rheinmetall AG and DEMALOG, Germany’s Biggest Biometrics Company – Soldier Systems Daily – The strategic objective is to integrate biometric technology, artificial intelligence software, and digitization solutions in three different areas: driver monitoring, security, and industry. For Rheinmetall, the joint venture marks an important step in the transformation to digitization technology and expanding into driver monitoring solutions. Furthermore, the new joint venture enhances the Düsseldorf-based technology group’s future-oriented diversification into biometrics applications geared to the security sector and industry. The move also adds to its existing digitization and software expertise. Importantly, the partnership reinforces Rheinmetall’s capabilities in five strategic technology clusters: automation, sensors, digitization, alternative mobility, and artificial intelligence
Virtual clubbing points to future profits from the metaverse | FT – Hybe, the agency behind K-pop band BTS, was hit by a 98 per cent plunge in sales from its core live concert business in 2020 as tours were cancelled. But total annual revenues and operating profit still rose over a third, as it was quick to offer VR concerts and content. With such digital content repurposed at a fraction of the cost of live shows, operating margins rose to nearly a fifth higher than pre-pandemic levels. CJ ENM, which started using the latest VR and augmented reality technology for its virtual concerts in 2020, has also enjoyed a boost to content sales. These have since risen steadily, more than doubling in the latest quarter, as did operating profits from its music division. For Sony, sales from its music segment rose a fifth in the year to March
Making the metaverse – Smart2.0 – its odd, or disingenuous the way Meta is outlining an open metaverse rather than a walled garden, rather like a turkey voting for Christmas
I think my interest in this vintage TV series Special Branch comes from a couple of places:
Sharing Mike Herron’s subversive books, Apple TV adaption and audio books with friends and my Dad
Sharing my love of John LeCarre with friends during lockdown
Special Branch was before my life time. The episodes start very much in the vein of a Le Carre or Len Deighton-type story. Later episodes were more human interest focused including an investigation of a religious cult. However one episode touches on the often overlooked post-war history of the British security services and military combatting Cypriot desire for independence.
You can see more episodes of Special Branch on YouTube here.
Genesis on luxury
This is an interesting event that Genesis took part in for marketing purposes. The tone of voice on the session was more about the ‘business of luxury’ rather than encouraging luxury consumption. It’s trying in a way that Lexus didn’t need to. Lexus let their engineering do the talking, by comparison luxury and fashion is something that Mercedes and BMW have increasingly lent into.
There is also no focus on sport in the way that BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Audi, Infiniti and Lexus have had.
Lights and shadows
A lovely collection of video footage showing light and shadow views in Japan. A good deal of it is the the same locations shot at different times of the day. There is some b-roll, TV and film footage mixed in for good measure.
Mysterious circles in the Sahara
My guess when I first saw this was oil exploration. I had worked in the oil industry before I went to university and heard the upstream and exploration adventures of older colleagues. This documentary is a fascinating journey to find out the truth and the limits of the internet and assumptions about modern industry practices not being a good guide of past practices. Without any further introduction I will leave you to this mystery of the Algerian desert.
Calculus on Pornhub
Taiwanese mathematics tutor puts calculus lessons on Pornhub. Attracts audience with attractive female assistants who clean the board. His rationale of taking his content to a less crowded platform can’t be faulted though.
I have put together a metaverse discussion paper. This post is the executive summary of the metaverse discussion paper. The full paper has much more context including context on the history of the metaverse, the current reality and separating out the hype.
This originally started as a discussion paper drafted during quiet moments at work. Client work got in the way developing it further. I didn’t have time to complete writing the metaverse discussion paper beyond an outline and supporting research.
A good deal of my work is to do with brand experience. So, it made sense for me to dig in and find out more about the metaverse from the perspective of what it means to brands. I structured my approach in understanding the metaverse, in terms of:
What is currently being said
The past developments leading up to the metaverse
Possible futures
How to use the metaverse discussion paper
This document contains a large amount of content. I would advise that you read the executive summary and everything else you can dive into as your muse or boredom strikes you.
The link to the full metaverse discussion paper is at the bottom of the post. I am giving it away for free under a Creative Commons Attribution – No Derivatives licence.
Available for free download at the bottom of the post.
The current state of the metaverse and the technology sectors attitude to it can be best understood through the words of a mid-20th century political thinker Ivan Chtcheglov. Chtcheglov reflected on an illusory imagined construction.
And you, forgotten, your memories ravaged by all the consternations of two hemispheres, stranded in the Red Cellars of Pali-Kao, without music and without geography, no longer setting out for the hacienda where the roots think of the child and where the wine is finished off with fables from an old almanac. That’s all over. You’ll never see the hacienda. It doesn’t exist.
What became apparent as I researched for this document was how companies were trying to solve problems that were a small part of what will be needed for a metaverse. This is because the metaverse as envisaged in science fiction and technology as ‘thought leadership’ will require a wide range of technology problems to be solved. For instance, the current technologists haven’t been able to surpass the vivid experiences created in mid-to-late 20th century cinemas and theme parks.
Broadly the technology challenges would be characterised as:
Scalability
Believable and immersive
Open and portable in nature from a technology perspective
Decentralized
Traversable – the ability to ‘travel’ around and between worlds
Able to conduct commerce and exchange
Social
Secure and trusted
Many companies have deep expertise in some parts of the metaverse problem. Some work builds on decades of work in areas such as virtual reality and haptic technology. But these areas haven’t progressed with the kind of pace one would expect from Moore’s Law.[2] Technologists are trying to work out how existing technologies, like distributed databases, games physics engines and realistic computer rendering could be used to solve some of the problems needed to be addressed to build a future metaverse.
What we saw with the web, but are not seeing with the metaverse at the moment is collaboration. There isn’t open collaborative work towards a maturing standards environment necessary for interoperability as well as a solid direction to help define future metaverse technologies. The lack of collaboration makes it hard to predict, if or when we would be likely to see a metaverse. We can speculate how the future supporting technologies for the metaverse might net out based on heuristics like Moore’s Law or Metcalfe’s Law[3].[4] It would be impossible to speculate on the realpolitik required to build the ‘metaverse’ and what would drive its universal adoption over time.
But that isn’t stopping companies thinking about how the metaverse work with their brands. Governments are also giving a lot of thought to the coming metaverse including:
The provision of services in a ‘metaverse’ environment
How to manage market competition
Understanding the potential of the metaverse to foment social disturbances and imperil security
Since the metaverse, doesn’t currently exist as envisaged, it makes sense to look for analogues. These analogues include social trends in highly evolved technology markets and precursor technologies such as gaming and VR. The goal of the research would be to try and understand what it might look like when digital immersive experiences become commonplace.
Consultants like Forrester Research[5] and McKinsey are recommending that organisations get involved with precursors to learn, but also temper their expectations. There is a limitation to this approach, technology and culture evolve with use. Scale changes things further. Norms that were established when platforms have 100,000s of users evolve or fade away when the user number goes to 100s of millions or even billions.
One of the ways that this research happens is through a resurgence of technologist and marketer interest in virtual worlds like Roblox and AltspaceVR. These virtual worlds allow experimentation to discover what works (and what doesn’t) far in advance of the future metaverse. Deloitte Consulting considered that one of the three business model scenarios for the metaverse was what they termed a ‘Low Orbit’ where the metaverse like VR, continues to be used for niche rather than general purpose uses. The current virtual worlds lean more towards the ‘Low Orbit’ model. The current belief[6] that games are the metaverse falls firmly into the ‘Low Orbit’ model.
Assuming for a moment that businesses manage to retain and build on the body of knowledge they get through this experimentation they will hopefully answer questions like:
Using VR early adopters as a proxy for metaverse users, what works from a marketing effectiveness perspective, in driving brand awareness and brand activation?
How effective are virtual world experiences in terms of brand awareness and brand activation? How does it benchmark against web-based media, mobile apps, out of home (OOH), cinema and broadcast media like connected and conventional television?
What are the dos and don’ts acquired through experimentation in virtual worlds from user experience design perspective for brands?
How would a virtual world assist in digital consumer testing and virtual crowdsourcing before committing to manufacture an item at scale? What are the strengths and limitations in this approach?
What tactics are drive brand awareness in a virtual world in an effective manner?
When do experiences get old and have to be refreshed?
How can the brand be a better citizen in the virtual world? How much interaction is required with ‘real’ brand ambassadors?
Some of the platforms like Meta’s Horizon Worlds and Animoca Brands’ The Sandbox hope to be the metaverse. They desire to incorporate the consumers entire perceived metaverse. An analogue to the business models of Horizon Worlds or The Sandbox would be walled garden ‘super apps’ WeChat and the Taobao that currently represent most of the consumer mobile web in China today. Or the walled garden ‘desktop web’ experience[7] of AOL[8] in pre-broadband America. Deloitte Consulting outlined this approach as one of their likely business model scenarios of the metaverse. They called it a ‘Double Star’.
Platforms face a big challenge; consumer expectations are well over a decade ahead of what the technology can actually deliver.
Even if the technology is successful, the challenge for brands, walled garden and open metaverse platforms are many. Here are two of the biggest challenges to get started:
How do brands and platforms show that sufficient effort has been done to keep users safe? This isn’t only about filtering content, but filtering behaviour. Will post-censure of bad behaviour be sufficient? Will the environment be sufficiently safe for brands to participate and advertise?
In a world of ESG[9] considerations, would an energy intensive virtual pleasure palace be too much for investors or purpose-driven brand owners like BlackRock, Proctor & Gamble or Unilever?
[1] Chtcheglov, I.V. (1953) Formulaire pour un urbanisme nouveau. France – http://www.bopsecrets.org/SI/Chtcheglov.htm
[2] Gregersen, E. (July 21, 2011) Moore’s Law. United States: Encyclopaedia Britannica – https://www.britannica.com/technology/Moores-law
[3] Metcalfe, R. (August 18, 2006) Guest Blogger Bob Metcalfe: Metcalfe’s Law Recurses Down the Long Tail of Social Networks. United States: VCMike via wordpress.com – https://vcmike.wordpress.com/2006/08/18/metcalfe-social-networks/
[4] Shapiro, C. and Varian, H.R. (1999). Information Rules. United States: Harvard Business Press
[5] Proulx, M., Ask, J., Bennett, M., Gownder, J.P., & Truog, D. (March 29, 2022) There Is No Metaverse Today, But Be Prepared. United States: Forrester Research – https://www.forrester.com/blogs/there-is-no-metaverse-today-but-be-prepared/
[6] Whatley, J. (May 17, 2022) The metaverse doesn’t exist! You’re talking about gaming. United Kingdom: The Drum – https://www.thedrum.com/opinion/2022/05/17/the-metaverse-doesn-t-exist-you-re-talking-about-gaming
[7] (September 4, 2000) AOL’s ‘Walled Garden’. United States: The Wall Street Journal – https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB968104011203980910?reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
[9] Environmental, Social and Governance criteria. Standards used by socially conscious investors as a way to filter investment decisions. More here – https://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/environmental-social-and-governance-esg-criteria.asp
