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  • Magic donkey

    I was reading Rob Manuel’s Facebook post about the origin of B3ta’s ‘magic donkey’ and its wider connection to the modern dystopian web experience.

    B3ta and magic donkey

    I guess it makes sense to first explain what B3ta is. B3ta is a community of bored driven people with a creative bent and a finely tuned sense of the absurd. The Guardian described it as a ‘purile digital arts community’. To be fair the works are more multi-displinary, than just digital in nature. Brands and memes get hacked.

    Ball's ice cream by S4RK on B3ta
    By SR4K on B3ta. Unilever’s ice cream ‘heart brand’ gets flipped to become a stylised scrotum. The UK version of the heart brand is Wall’s which becomes Ball’s.

    Its humour and its contributors are mostly British.

    B3ta was founded as a website and forum back in 2001 and I found it as a passive consumer a few years later. The front page and weekly email sent to members curated a selection of the content in the forums. Whilst contributors weren’t paid, there was a lot of kudos to getting your content on to the front page of the website, or into the weekly email that went out to the community of creators and consumers.

    This meant that Manuel was under pressure by contributors to put their work on the front page or in the weekly update email. The ego of the creator is familiar to anyone who has watched TV shows or films such as:

    Manuel invented an imaginary editor to deflect pressure away from himself. Of course, imaginary editor had to be slightly absurd. Hence a magic donkey.

    Flickr and the magic donkey

    While Rob Manuel was responsible for trying to fend off B3ta contributors aspirations to get on the front page, Cal Henderson was responsible for the technology. He had been a co-founder of B3ta alongside Manuel.

    Henderson is better known as a long time collaborator with Stewart Butterfield and CTO of Slack. But before that he was responsible for the technical aspects of B3ta and then moved on to Flickr.

    Flickr had a strong tight community, with agreed well-adhered to rules. A large part of this was down to the Flickr team including co-founder Caterina Fake and Heather Powazek Champ. The community met up in real life; rather like users of Chinese network Douban had been known to do. Flickr users were also good at organising their pictures providing labels or tags for images. But as the community scaled, surfacing the right content at the right time would have been more difficult.

    Henderson word on a algorithm-driven function called ‘interestingness’ that surfaced ‘the best’ content on a particular subject. Here’s what Steve’s Digicams said about is likely to go into the ‘Interestingness’ algorithm.

    There are a number of factors that go into what makes a photo interesting including, the number of tags it has, the number of groups it belongs to, how many people have viewed the image, and how many people have made it their favorite.

    Steve’s Digicms – What is Flickr Interestingness?

    Cal Henderson called the algorithm ‘magic donkey’. This would be a substitute for the curation done by an editor or a community manager and be applied across all subject areas. If the descriptions of Henderson’s interestingness algorithm reminds you a bit of Larry Page and Sergei Brin’s original working paper The PageRank Citation Ranking: Bringing Order to the Web, you’re probably right. At a base level both seem to rely on different feedback mechanisms to provide a reductive way of resolving what to show. Feedback as a concept is a hugely important role in computing and technology. Bell Labs were using feedback in its solutions to reduce noise on telephone lines at the start of the modern electronic age. Now feedback and analysis is done thousands of time a second to try and provide robots with some form of situational awareness.

    Magic donkey, search and social search

    Just over 12 months after it was formed, Flickr was purchased by Yahoo!. Yahoo! was interested in flickr for a number of reasons:

    • Yahoo! (and Microsoft) were fighting a losing battle against Google’s search engine and needed an edge
    • Web 2.0 had started to take off and Flickr was a cool property in this space.

    At that time search lacked meaning and context. To help you understand what search was like back then. I used to use the analogy of a shop assistant

    Imagine going to the supermarket and asking the assistant for an item, they run down the corridor and run back with their arms full of different stuff. They empty the stuff into your trolley and say to you ‘Your item is in there’. If you are lucky, the item is at the top of the pile, it you aren’t you may sort through it all and find you don’t have it anyway. You complain to the manager and he dismisses you with ‘Its your own fault, you asked in the wrong way’.

    Folksonomy.

    In order to deal with the meaning and context problem, all the main search engines brought out vertical search services

    • Video Search
    • Maps
    • Blog search
    • Google Scholar
    • Shopping search

    And ‘easter eggs’ such as providing information on local time in different cities or countries and measurement conversions. Whilst these weren’t great at driving advertising revenue they encouraged usage. Search became a giant Swiss army knife for knowledge workers.

    All the search providers had a keen interest to the GWAP (games with a purpose) work that was being done at Carnegie Mellon University by Luis von Ahn. von Ahn is a specialist in the field of ‘human computation’.

    Human computation was providing machine learning something to learn from. You want to teach a machine learning algorithm how to identify cats? von Ahn’s ESP game was the ideal teacher. In the words of von Ahn’s own page at Carnegie Mellon University:

    The first GWAP developed by von Ahn, the ESP Game displays images to two players who each try to guess words that the other player would use to describe the image. The game improves web image searches by generating descriptions of uncaptioned images. Google Inc. has licensed the game, which the company calls Google Image Labeler.

    Games With A Purpose – Carnegie Mellon University

    von Ahn went on to design other games that would have a similar utility

    • Matchin, a game in which players judge which of two images is the more appealing. (This might introduce cultural bias and would probably be much more problematic now.) Back in the late noughties this was seen as progress towards better search. Automating systemic racial bias just wasn’t on the radar and ‘bro culture’ wasn’t as prevalent in its engineers
    • Tag a tune – which looked to get genres and descriptors like happy or sad music
    • Verbosity – tests ‘common sense’ knowledge to build facts for machine learning platforms like ‘you shouldn’t walk under ladders’

    You can still try Google’s use of GWAP here. Though most people are more used to engaging with GWAP functions as part of CAPTCHA and reCAPTCHA verification services. Google used reCAPTCHA and CAPTCHA technology to digitise the archives of The New York Times and libraries into Google Books.

    Yahoo!’s answer to this has been variously termed knowledge search and social search. The idea was to improve the quality of results through people and provide context through human effort. A few of the things were in Yahoo!’s favour for this approach.

    Heuristics that support social search

    Search like many categories of commerce, tends to follow the principle of the long tail. The bulk of interest or transactions are the head. This existed pre-Internet; if you’re of a certain age you’ll remember that most people seemed to have a Sade or Dire Straits album in their CD collection. Ed Sheeran or Beyonce on their Spotify playlists would be a similar phenomenon now.

    Search is quite similar. The biggest searches on search engines are likely to be something along the lines of:

    • Porn
    • Google (on Yahoo! or Bing)
    • Amazon
    • eBay
    • Facebook

    (The lists that you see published of the top searches put out by Google, Yahoo! etc are usually cleaned first by the PR teams; so have limited value as trustworthy information sources.)

    A lot of searches are looking for things that you’ve found before online. Whether it was a particular article or a website that you use on a regular basis.

    Social search was manifested in a number of different ways. Questions and answer sites had originally got popular in east Asia, notably Korea, Taiwan and Japan.

    Jerry Yang himself got behind the launch of what would become Yahoo! Answers following the popularity of a Q+A service launched by Yahoo! in Taiwan.

    Yahoo! had an interest in tagging and folksonomies as a way of providing context around content. In a similar way to the way lexemes work.

    So if you were listening to a report on the stock market. The report wouldn’t necessarily have to use the phrase stock market to indicate that was what the report was about. There would be lexemes – words associated with the concept of a stock market that would be indicators for instance:

    • Wall Street
    • Bull market
    • Bear market
    • Standard & Poors 500 (S+P500)
    • NASDAQ
    • Share price
    • FTSE
    • The Hang Seng
    • The Nikkei

    There would be similar language for other subjects as well. This allows for one item to be in multiple categories. Yahoo! acquired Flickr which helped because it had a community that tagged their images.

    Yahoo! also launched a series of social bookmarking services. Remember what I said earlier about people often searching for things that they’d found before? Well a social bookmarking tool offers a few benefits

    • Your bookmarks exist online so you don’t have to worry about getting access to your browser bookmark folder at home, at work or on the move
    • You organise things using the language that makes the most sense for you
    • You can search amongst links that you’ve found before
    • Searching amongst content that you and others like you chose to bookmark should raise the overall quality of the links that you are provided with

    There was Yahoo! MyWeb, MyWeb 2 (beta) and it then acquired Delicious. Stewart Butterfield used to joke that Yahoo! bought flickr because they thought flickr were the ‘tagging people’; when they’d really just been copying the feature from Joshua Schacter at Delicious. Yahoo! then went on to buy social bookmarking site Delicious as well.

    The problem is that to tag your bookmarks and content carefully requires a discipline that many people struggled to maintain. I have found it to be personally beneficial over time, but I had a strong incentive to stick with it; even then I have been far more lax on my photo tagging since I no longer use Flickr’s desktop app to upload my photos.

    Changing behaviour is hard; when I worked there, reputedly a higher proportion of Yahoos used Google search than the general population. I heard that there was a similar behaviour pattern at Microsoft.

    There is also a certain irony in Henderson et al falling back closer towards a Google PageRank citation / feedback-type model of algorithm given the nature of a more human-powered and humane ideal of social search.

    Magic donkey and content firehose

    Cal Henderson literally wrote the book on scaling websites to cope with the kind of growth you would see driven by social web applications such as photo sharing, bookmarking and social networks.

    But social networks grew at a phenomenally fast rate. You could never log on to Friendster. That meant that the bar was set very low for MySpace to compete against Friendster.

    MySpace and Facebook were initially very sluggish sites. Twitter and the ‘fail whale’ of the site being down were a cultural touchstone of the late noughties.

    Fail Whale
    Fail Whale via The Diva Rockin on Flickr.

    This increase in audience, meant a consequent increase in content. YouTube for example was running at over 45minutes of video being uploaded every minute. I am sure that rate is even greater now. How to sort through this firehose of content?

    To engineers the solution would look a lot like Henderson’s magic donkey. Algorithms slowed down the newsfeed to something more manageable, otherwise it would overwhelm the users.

    On the commercial side, the social platforms need to show sticky content that will keep users on their site longer and that they can vend advertising against.

    No great plot to up-end civilisation or spread hatred and bile. But algorithms can have unintended consequences. Content that polarises, engages. The algorithm doesn’t know that’s a bad thing. Soon those that want to engage with audiences in an emotive political way understand how the system can work with them.

    A mix of trial and error with a bit of understanding of behavioural science and continual learning allows political actors to learn how to use the system. Incremental tweaks in approach that their rivals or peers make drives that knowledge at a faster rate than the algorithms seem to evolve. The algorithm is blind to it all. It sees the things it cares about ‘improving’. Time spent on service, engagement with content, commenting and sharing. A human-machine feedback mechanism is created.

    In essence, it’s Google’s ‘stupid shop assistant’ all over again and this time human input in the feedback mechanisms is hurting rather than helping the magic donkey of social platforms.

    More on flickr here and more on internet culture here.

    UPDATE (September 24, 2020): Earlier this week the FT ran the story ‘YouTube reverts to human moderators in the fight against misinformation‘ – in an apparent indication that the ‘magic donkey’ model has reached its limits (at the moment). YouTube’s machine learning algorithms when given control had a false positive bias banning a ‘significant number’ of videos that broke no rules. In a three month period 11 million videos were taken down. (The usual number is about half that).

  • Podcasting + more things

    Listening in – Podcasting provides a space for free thought in China | China | The Economist – I suspect that podcasting will represent a new frontier in censorship for Chinese regulators. China has an eco-system that allows paid subscription via podcasting platforms for experts in different fields such as business or investing. More China-related content here.

    Mike Pompeo renews attack on HSBC as bank walks line between US and China | Financial Times – HSBC is about to get a lot of trouble coming its way. It has managed to make enemies of the Chinese government over Huawei, the US government over Hong Kong sanctions busting and the UK government over its support of the Hong Kong national security law. I don’t think that they will be able to wriggle out of the mess that they have got themselves into

    Chinese Diplomats Helped Military Scholars Visiting the U.S. Evade FBI Scrutiny, U.S. Says – WSJ – not terribly surprising

    Can virtual fit technology step up and replace fitting rooms? | Vogue Business – this could also accelerate the move to digital

    Alibaba wants American brands. The same ones as Amazon | Vogue Business – this could kill JD.com and Amazon China

    Rolls-Royce unveils “confident but quiet” rebrand by Pentagram – move away from skeuomorphic 3D branding lends itself better for apps online etc etc

    Are creatives better at creativity? | Contagious – While we’re always interested in the nature of creativity, it’s important to put experiments like these into perspective – there’s a lot more to being an agency creative than what was tested here. After all, being good at keep-ups doesn’t mean you can play professional football.

    Tech war chronicles: How a Silicon Valley chip pioneer landed in China  – Reuters – really interesting. MIPS, SPARC and RISC-V are arguably better architectures than ARM’s Core series of processors. MIPS has been ubiquitous in high performance computing to embedded electronics. It is very well understood, in terms of both design and writing software for it

    Wilderness of Mirrors – The Burning Shore – great meditation on the nature of conspiracy theories and culture

    KFC temporarily drops ‘finger lickin’ slogan in first global campaign – KFC believes its slogan is “inappropriate” at a time when hygiene is top of mind and so is dropping it temporarily, but is on the lookout for an interim replacement.

  • Things that caught my eye this week

    Indonesia is a fascinating place in and of itself and comes up with all kinds of cultural nuggets. The latest one that I came across was the Vespa Extreme moped sub-culture. Vespa scooters are plentiful in Indonesia, as is the desire to invent. Car tuning culture is big amongst the middle class. But for those who need something more affordable Vespa Extreme builds are a site to behold. The South China Morning Post put together this great documentary film on the Vespa Extreme culture and its riders.

    Like car culture there are meet-ups, cruises and even festivals organised.

    Vespa Extreme Culture.

    About half of the mobile game developers on iOS are based in China, the country’s universities turn out more programmers each year than anywhere else (including India). Yet China has still lagged behind other countries games in terms of incorporating technology and art. That’s where Black Myth: Wukong is supposed to come in. Sun Wukong is one of the names of the Monkey King in the Chinese literary classic Journey To The West. This has been a staple of Chinese animation and film for years.

    Black Myth: Wukong

    Could it be popular in China? It’s hard to tell from this pre-Alpha release footage. The biggest issues are likely to come from Chinese regulators. But hopefully the game won’t have to undergo the lengthy rewrites and changes foreign games have to do to comply. Instead the Chinese developers should be able to bake compliance in from the start. However, its China; so nothing is guaranteed.

    German software giant SAP created a Tinder-like internal matching app to connect isolated employees for virtual lunches during remote work – its an interesting approach to things I guess. Home working lacks serendipity of working in an office. There is no water cooler moments. Social interactions are limited and Zoom analogues (Microsoft Teams, GoTo Meeting etc) burden the user with a heavy cognitive load. I just hope that this is opt-in at SAP, rather than ‘enforced’ or ‘serious fun’.

    The Ikea Taiwan Facebook page faithfully created looks from their catalogue on Animal Crossing, much to the delight of their Taiwanese and Hong Kong based followers. The original post is here.

    Ikea Taiwan Animal Crossing
    The original Facebook post
    Ikea Taiwan Animal Crossing
    Front cover with Animal Crossing characters, but on Ikea furniture
    Ikea Taiwan Animal Crossing
    Side-by-side comparison between the original catalogue and a recreation using sets dressed in Animal Crossing
    Ikea Taiwan Animal Crossing
    Another example, all prices are in Taiwan dollars rather than Animal Crossing belles

    More Ikea related content here.

    Spotify is already encouraging media planners to start thinking about audio adverts for their client Christmas campaigns. More here; Spotify’s Christmas in Summer: Hear the Cheer 

  • Epic Games + more things

    Why Epic isn’t an innocent victim in the Fortnite battle with Apple, and why it deserves a loss today – BGR – interesting argument that goes against the popular media narrative. I wonder why Epic haven’t gone after console makers as well? Not all gamers might get the fact that Epic has created this crisis fully knowing it would breach the contract, fully knowing what Apple’s responses could be, and full knowing that Apple will call its bluff. That’s why it had all those lawsuits on hand and the viral commercial. Whether it expected Apple to go for the nuclear option, that’s debatable, but the same email chain above proves that Apple’s response was swift. From the moment Epic released the update, Apple let the company know that it’s risking losing access to its developer tools, which can hinder app development for games based on the Unreal engine that Epic licenses to other game makers.  The same response also details another dishonest behavior from Epic that shouldn’t be ignored. Epic took advantage of Apple’s developer tools to quietly push an update to the App Store that turned on an IAP payment functionality that Apple would never approve. Epic has been cheating, and that’s a company that’s supposedly working for other developers. That’s a company that other developers should trust when dealing with a hypothetical Epic App Store inside the App Store that would be governed by Epic’s own rules

    Vietnamese tech firm sues TikTok, alleging copyright infringement – Reuters – VNG are a highly creative outfit. They do great games, their messenger platform has done well despite Vietnam allowing access to WhatsApp and Facebook. They had some challenges over IP over five years ago and have since built up their own stable of recording artists

    Chinese-Made Smartphones Are Secretly Stealing Money From People Around The Worldhow cheap Chinese smartphones take advantage of the world’s poorest people. Current security concerns about Chinese apps and hardware have largely focused on potential back doors in Huawei’s 5G equipment. More recently, people have focused on how user data collected by TikTok could be abused by the company and the Chinese government. But an overlooked and ongoing threat is the consistent presence of malware on cheap smartphones from Chinese manufacturers and how it exacts a digital tax on people with low incomes

    Why are prices so damn high by Eric Hellend – health, education and the Baumol cost disease

    Jack Ma’s Ant Group Produces $3.5 Billion Profit in Six Months as IPO Looms – WSJ – one thing to remember is how Ma unilaterally bilked Yahoo! shareholders out of Ant Financial when Carole Bartz was CEO. Probably not a good investment for a foreigner in China

    ‘The new definition of luxury’: Highsnobiety unpacks how the landscape of high-end fashion has tilted toward accessibility – DigidayCarvalho said that through the recent research Highsnobiety performed, his team has learned that younger shoppers don’t care about exclusivity in luxury like previous generations did. Instead, they want accessibility. And for the most part, the designer brands that have successfully attracted a younger audience no longer have closed shop doors that only allow in certain clientele.  “Accessibility doesn’t mean that every consumer will have the means to purchase a product, but the doors are open for them,” he said. “The hope is that down the line” this 16- or 17-year-old will become a paying customer of the brand.” More luxury segment content and analysis here

    Frasers Group announces deal for DW Sports | RTE – buying into gyms and fitness studio business

    First, private equity holds us to ransom. Now it wants us to bail out its losses | Private equity | The GuardianIts excessive debts, once the route to fortunes and, it would say, “business discipline”, are crushing it. On top, the commercial property market no longer looks a one-way bet. It wants its vast mortgage debt guaranteed by the government, even though the interest charges drive the underlying companies into operating losses – but this has been apparent way before COVID. Private equity in these sectors has been like an unpleasant game of pass the parcel

    Chick-Fil-A Fires Employee for a Menu Hack Video That Went Viral on TikTok | Inc.com – the article points out the various different reasons why Chck-Fil-A is wrong. I get it, the challenge for businesses like this are:

    • The businesses provide a consistent experience – like McDonalds that’s their thing. This means very hierarchical structures.
    • Finally restaurants tend to make money on controlling the margins tightly, doing the right thing here would be going against pretty much every trait that makes them successful all of the time

    Imagination in China lab RISC-V deal | EETimes Europe – RISC-V is often overlooked as a platform but is has great potential

  • Megatrends by John Naisbitt

    John Naisbitt’s Megatrends was on the New York Times bestseller list when it was first published in 1982. Naisbitt outlined some big long term trends that he’d found as part of a decade of research. Hence the mega in Megatrends; though one could argue that macro may have been a more accurate term to use.

    I wasn’t that familiar with the work of Naisbitt; but came upon it by a circuitous route.

    My circuitous route to Megatrends

    I was introduced to the works of futurist Alvin Toffler in college reading Future Shock, The Third Wave and Power Shift. At the time these were cited on the technology degree courses my friends were on; as well as the marketing course I was studying.

    My house mate and I would talk about Toffler’s books as much Robert Pirsig or Emmanuel Kant, on the sofa of an evening sipping really bad instant coffee. I wouldn’t say that those were particularly happy days for me, but they did give me the time to think and read. Something that is much more of a struggle now.

    As I became more interested in Asia in the late 1990s; l read about how Toffler had influenced technocratic leaders from Singapore to China. I also started to read about John Naisbitt. Like Toffler, Naisbitt had done the Asian speaker circuits, met senior officials and conducted projects in-country through the 1990s. The management consultancy Toffler Associates eventually operated in China on government and private sector briefs.

    Compared to Toffler; Naisbitt seems to have become much more personally committed to China and central Europe. He has alternately lived in Vienna and in Tianjin, China. As the dot com boom kicked off I was reading this book. It fitted right in with similar writings from publications like Gilder Technology Report, Wired and Upside.

    LONDON
    Megatrends by John Naisbitt

    Back to the Megatrends review

    In Megatrends Naisbitt sets out X large scale long term trends that he sees in society

    • Information society and the rise of the knowledge worker
    • High tech / high touch – Naisbitt saw that roles would focus more on technology, or on ‘high touch’ sectors where humans aren’t easily replaceable like nursing care
    • Globalisation – a move in focus from the national economy to the world economy as the world becomes more interconnected
    • A move in strategic focus from short-term planning to long term planning.
    • Decentralisation of power and structures
    • A move from institutional help to self-help
    • Bottom-up governance across government and other organisations as a channel for public opinion
    • The move from hierarchies to networks
    • The population shift in the US from north to south
    • Increase in consumer choice

    At the top line we can still see much of these changes. I can see how Naisbitt’s vision of globalisation would appeal to the likes of Singapore and China. I am less sure about how Chinese technocrats would have made of bottom up decision making or as Naisbitt puts it ‘participatory democracy’.

    Naisbitt failed to take the next logical step; to look at the interactions between the trends. Instead the chapters remained siloed, rather than in context.

    For instance that the decline of hierarchies and rise of knowledge workers saw layers of management shed by organisations. Or the link between consumer choice and the rise of globalisation.

    Conclusion

    Megatrends has value in the way that looks at trends without looking at the how (usually mentioning digitalisation or some similar vehicle of transformation). This is something that we probably wouldn’t be able to do now; given that our mindset is about big data and agile processes. More book reviews here.