Ged Carroll

Category: business | 商業 | 상업 | ビジネス

My interest in business or commercial activity first started when a work friend of my Mum visited our family. She brought a book on commerce which is what business studies would have been called decades earlier. I read the book and that piqued my interest.

At the end of your third year in secondary school you are allowed to pick optional classes that you will take exams in. this is supposed to be something that you’re free to chose.

I was interested in business studies (partly because my friend Joe was doing it). But the school decided that they wanted me to do physics and chemistry instead and they did the same for my advanced level exams because I had done well in the normal level ones. School had a lot to answer for, but fortunately I managed to get back on track with college.

Eventually I finally managed to do pass a foundational course at night school whilst working in industry. I used that to then help me go and study for a degree in marketing.

I work in advertising now. And had previously worked in petrochemicals, plastics and optical fibre manfacture. All of which revolve around business. That’s why you find a business section here on my blog.

Business tends to cover a wide range of sectors that catch my eye over time. Business usually covers sectors that I don’t write about that much, but that have an outside impact on wider economics. So real estate would have been on my radar during the 2008 recession.

  • User domestication

    User domestication was an interesting phrase that I noticed in an essay about the growth of WhatsApp. In the essay the author highlighted a number of factors in WhatsApp’s success:

    • Having a proprietary messaging client that didn’t support industry standards for messaging such as the XMPP protocol supported by Google Talk. (Google later abandoned the XMPP open protocol itself in favour of its proprietary Google Hangouts).
    • WhatsApp had a low learning curve of adoption through to a well designed user experience.
    • The user experience of WhatsApp was easy to learn
    • WhatsApp worked across both Android and iOS devices which helped its adoption through network effects

    This led to a number of things, which the author identified as user domestication factors:

    • A high level of user dependence on WhatsApp
    • No control over the software. (it can’t be modified, it prevents migration to another platform – a la Facebook and people’s address book)
    • Exploitation of ‘captive users’ who would find it difficult to resist

    If all of this sounds familiar, its because it was the Facebook playbook from the get-go. Like organising export of your address book from Yahoo! to Facebook, but not the other way around.

    Messing around with iPad
    Captured attention

    The author makes clear that WhatsApp is just an illustrative example.

    This probably explains why the essay doesn’t seem to match up with the WhatsApp story pre-Facebook. Founders Brian Acton and Jan Koum originally had a nominal subscription model. Acton went on to help set up the Signal Foundation, after leaving WhatsApp post Facebook takeover. His reason for leaving was concerns over the monetisation of WhatsApp by Facebook.

    But I think that there can be little argument that Facebook thought of WhatsApp as a user domestication opportunity.

    The relationship that the media industry has with consumers through the use of DRM (digital rights management) is a similar form of user domestication mentioned in his essay.

    Another example of this ‘user domestication’ in action is the apparent failure of Google’s search choice screen to have any effect on its monopoly market share in Europe.

    It differs from previous generations of technology lock-in exercised by the likes of Microsoft, IBM and Apple in that the costs of these obvious upfront. In user domestication, the costs are less apparent and the value extraction happens on an ongoing basis.

    More information

    WhatsApp and the domestication of users

    WhatsApp founder Brian Action, says Facebook used him to get its acquisition past EU regulators | Techcrunch

  • China crackdown + more things

    MACAU DAILY TIMES 澳門每日時報 » Hong Kong | Thousands flee for UK, fearing China crackdown – What’s surprising is not the content of the article itself. There are plenty of pieces in the English language media around the world about the fear of a China crackdown due to the Hong Kong National Security Law driving Hong Kongers away. (The reality is less likely to be a China crackdown and more likely to be a progressive anaconda-type squeeze.) I am surprised to see this article in the usually tame Macau media. Which left me with the question why? My initial thoughts were that space constrained Macanese could take up some of the slack in Hong Kong as locals vacate? If so it would solve problems in the housing market and the need to build additional infrastructure in Macau.

    Hong Kong Bar Association’s new chair on national security law and China ｜ Apple Daily – I can’t see Mr Harris’ tenure ending well, given his lack of alignment with the line of travel on Hong Kong’s national security law. We might see a more forceful China crackdown on the legal sector, than just the mainland media criticism so far

    Next generation of horseshit | The Ad Contrarian newsletter – more on why life stage is more important than generations

    Merrick Garland Wants Former Facebook Lawyer to Top Antitrust Division | Prospect – this could be good for Facebook

    Majority of B2B advertising is ‘ineffective’ | Marketing Week – Of the 1,600 B2B ads shown to a sample of 6 million people worldwide over the past four years, 75% scored one star or less on System1’s FaceTrace emotional measurement tool – so ineffective in brand building, but potentially effective in terms of performance marketing? We don’t know

    QAnon Is Alive and Well in Japan – The Diplomat 

    China-Australia clash may be more about Beijing’s economic fears than a coronavirus probe | South China Morning Post 

    Today’s jet fighter designers don’t get the point – Asia Times – the cockpit itself is “beautiful,” full of screens that allow you to bring up an incredible amount of information about the fighter with just a few finger swipes, and customize the data to tailor it for the particular mission. The F-35 is the first to use touch screen technology. Unlike switches, which take up permanent cockpit space, touch screens allow the same LCD screen space to be instantly repurposed, the report said. One minute, a display could be used to pull up data on an aircraft’s fuel reserves, and the next, it could help target an enemy position on a mountainside. That goes a long way toward simplifying the cockpit and not overwhelming a pilot with wall-to-wall physical switches, dials, and single-use displays, the report said. But the problem with touch screens, the pilot explains, is a lack of tactile feedback. Switches have a nice, satisfying click that instantaneously lets the user know they were successfully flipped, the report said. The anonymous pilot reports failing to get a result from a touch screen about 20% of the time – the need for haptics has never been clearer

    China Raises Threat Level Over Rare Earths — Radio Free Asia – “Rare earth ore exports are limited in value, and the global demand for raw materials is relatively low,” said Liu Enqiao of Anbound Consulting. But Liu added that the decline “might be partly due to China’s tightening of regulations on strategic resources” under the country’s new export control law, which took effect on Dec. 1.

    Asian Fans Turn Their Back on Korean Pop Culture – The Chosun Ilbo – a lot of the problem seems to be down to overexposure and the Black Sun club scandal

    Mystery surrounds huge rise in Huawei executives’ social media followings | Financial Times – they aren’t the first corporate to be apparently caught astroturfing and won’t be the last. The New York Times tackles this from a different angle point out how accounts like this were used to lobby against 5G decisions against Huawei in Belgium – Inside a Pro-Huawei Influence Campaign – The New York Times 

    Facing the Jackpot with William Gibson | Ploughshares at Emerson College 

    The EU must protect the right to privacy and not attack end-to-end encryption – interesting that so many vendors came together on this. Its also interesting that its missing big tech names

    US-China tech war: former Google chief and others call for action to handle ‘asymmetric competition’ from Beijing | South China Morning Post – US tech group, formed in July 2020 to tackle ‘the most difficult questions regarding US competitiveness with China on technology’ also includes Jared Cohen. Report calls for determined action to tackle tech competition with China and says a certain amount of ‘bifurcation’ is inevitable

    Elderly woman DJ becomes online sensation in China | South China Morning Post – to be fair she’s about the same age as a number of big name DJs in the west. Pete Tong is 60, Carl Cox is 58, Junior Vasquez is 71, DJ Hell is 58 and Georgio Moroder is 80.

    Artificial Intelligence Will Define Google’s Future. For Now, It’s a Management Challenge. – WSJ – most of Google’s problems related to AI are rooted in the company’s approach to managing staff, adding that science, and not ideology, should guide ethical debates. “Google is the coddler-in-chief,” he said. “Their employees are so coddled that they feel entitled to make more and more demands” regarding how the company approaches AI and related issues. – TL;DR – millennial and gen-z Googler snowflakes preventing the company from creating amoral shareholder value

  • VR Headset + more things

    Apple’s first VR headset will reportedly be powerful and pricey – CNET – its a rumour so take with a pinch of salt, the approach outlined reminded me of being rather similar the way Oculus was in their early model VR headset devices. It is also interesting how they consider a VR headset as a stepping stone to AR glasses. Will Apple be enough to mainstream the VR headset? More related content here.

    Next drops bid to buy Topshop after Arcadia’s breakup | Philip Green | The Guardian – The Next consortium was pitted against Shein, a Chinese online fashion retailer and Authentic Brands, the US owner of the Barneys department store, which has been linked to a joint bid with JD Sports. The online retailers Asos and Boohoo are also thought to be involved in the mix. Shein tabled an offer worth in excess of £300m for Topshop and Topman, according to Sky News which first reported the development. It added that a separate process was being run for other Arcadia brands such as Burton and Dorothy Perkins

    ‎Finding Genius Podcast: Telehealth Technology Breaking the Barrier of Geography on Apple Podcasts – practitioner discussion on the realities of telehealth for diabetes and obesity management treatment

    Asians dump WhatsApp for Signal and Telegram on privacy concerns – Nikkei Asia 

    TSMC hikes capex to record $28bn as chip race heats up – Nikkei Asia 

    ‘Absolute carnage’: EU hauliers reject UK jobs over Brexit rules | Brexit | The Guardian – data showed that an increasing number of freight groups rejected contracts to move goods from France to Britain in the second week of January. Transporeon, a German software company that works with 100,000 logistics service providers, said freight forwarders had rejected jobs to move goods from Germany, Italy and Poland into Britain. In the second week of January the rejection rate for transport to the UK was up 168% on the third quarter of 2020 and had doubled in the first calendar week of the year

    Battle of the Robots Still Favors Japan and Europe—For Now – WSJ – Covid-19 has accelerated automation in factories, especially in manufacturing powerhouse China. Foreign companies have long dominated the market for industrial robots and automation tools there—but there are signs that dominance is fraying around the edges. As the factory for the world, China is unsurprisingly far and away the largest market for industrial robots. Before the pandemic, however, the U.S.-China trade war was slowing growth. New installations of industrial robots amounted to 140,500 in 2019, a 9% decline from the previous year, but still almost three times the number for second-place Japan, according to the International Federation of Robotics. Last year was likely much better: Credit Suisse estimates that China’s industrial-robotics market grew 9.5% in 2020.

    Audi and BMW shut down car subscription programs | Engadget – When Mercedes-Benz shuttered Collection, however, it cited mediocre demand and complaints about the hassles of switching personal items between vehicles. While it wasn’t mentioned at the time, the COVID-19 pandemic hasn’t helped matters. People are commuting less if at all, and may be more interested in saving money than the flexibility of swapping cars.Subscription ervices like Volvo Care are still going, although it’s not certain how well they’re faring.There may be a slight revival. Automotive News claims Cadillac is testing a resurrected Book service with dealers, although it would arrive a year after the brand’s hoped-for early 2020 revival. However, the overall market appears to be contracting

    Majority of Europeans fear Biden unable to fix ‘broken’ US | World news | The Guardian – “Europeans like Biden, but they don’t think America will come back as a global leader,” said the thinktank’s director, Mark Leonard. “When George W Bush was president, they were divided about how America should use its power. With Biden entering the White House, they are divided about whether America has power at all.” The survey of 15,000 people in 11 European countries, conducted at the end of last year, found that the shift in European sentiment towards the US in the wake of the Trump presidency had led to a corresponding unwillingness to support Washington in potential international disputes

    Exclusive: City of London Corp boss says ‘not our place’ to criticise China : CityAM – Nathan Law, one of the leaders of the 2014 Umbrella Movement protests in the territory and now in exile in London, told City A.M.’s City View podcast yesterday that UK firms’ “compliance and collusion” with the Chinese Communist Party’s agenda threatened the West’s “democratic values”. The pointed criticism comes after firms including HSBC and Standard Chartered, headquartered in London but who see significant revenues in Asia, backed the imposition of a draconian National Security Law in Hong Kong

    Damaging brand image is rarely harmful because it matters so little – In the age of Trump, what people think of you is far less important than the more brutal objective of getting people to think about you. – Salience is so important

    Zoom spy claims a warning for multinationals in China | Financial Times – the point is that every MNC is compromised because of the pressure that China brings on employees in their country

    IWC’s Christopher Grainger-Herr: “We Are Currently Experiencing Extraordinary Times.” – part of the issue with IWC is pre-COVID product related including using movements that watch fans look down on

    China-US rivalry: how the Gulf War sparked Beijing’s military revolution | South China Morning Post 

  • Doughnutism

    Doughnutism is a phrase that I found out about from a presentation of Carat’s 2021 trends paper. In the paper itself it is called the donut problem, but when talked about the phrase doughnutism was used.

    COVID-19 has changed behaviours. More people are telecommuting, which has changed people’s travel needs. As a consequence, there has been an uptake in locally bought products and services.

    Carat found data that suggested there was a common phenomenon in multiple cities. Lots of activities on the peripheral, where the bulk of people live, but a sharp decline in footfall in the middle. This would be shops that catered for commuters in central business districts, urban tourist traffic or destination shopping areas.

    This void in the centre is where doughnutism comes from.

    Carat cited CACI research that showed retail footfall returned to only 25 per cent of pre-COVID levels after the spring lockdown was lifted. This was in sharp contrast to the return to pre-COVID levels of activity in residential areas.

    As the report says:

    In a way, it’s the idea of the ‘fifteen-minute city’ brought to life. In Sorbonne University professor Carlos Moreno’s model, people would be able to access everything they need for everyday living within a 15-minute walk and have everything else delivered.

    Carat Trends 2021 – The Year of Emotionally Intelligent Marketing

    There were some indications that local-oriented social media like site Nextdoor rose in user activity. Facebook is developing a competitor. It also offers an opportunity for digital out of home media to thrive.

    Carat thinks that doughnutism will continue. If it does depend on how long COVID lasts and how it affects knowledge workers in the long run. There was a piece in the FT that talked about how creativity might be being adversely affected with the move to remote working.

    Creativity often comes out of having an itch that you can’t scratch. A classic example of that would be the story behind Post-It notes.

    The idea for the Post-it note was conceived in 1974 by Arthur Fry as a way of holding bookmarks in his hymnal while singing in the church choir. He was aware of an adhesive accidentally developed in 1968 by fellow 3M employee Spencer Silver. No application for the lightly sticky stuff was apparent until Fry’s idea.

    9 Things Invented or Discovered by Accident – howstuffworks

    Six years later the Post-it note was brought to market and the rest as they say was history.

    But it can also come out of serendipity, whether its a conversation whilst in the coffee queue or in an ideation meeting. Experiences that Zoom, Microsoft Teams, Slack or Google Duo don’t perform that well.

    “Exposure to new and different experiences — sounds, smells, environments, ideas, people — is a key source of creative spark,”… “These external stimuli are fuel for our imaginations and the imagined, made real, is what we typically mean by creativity.” “Homeworking can starve us of many of these creative raw ingredients — the chance conversation, the new person or idea or environment. Homeworking means serendipity is supplanted by scheduling, face-to-face by Zoom.” “Homeworking can starve us of many of these creative raw ingredients — the chance conversation, the new person or idea or environment. Homeworking means serendipity is supplanted by scheduling, face-to-face by Zoom.”

    Where’s the spark? How lockdown caused a creativity crisis – FT

    This quote was attributed by the FT to Andy Haldane, an economist at the Bank of England.

    A longer term driver of doughnutism in London and other world cities is more likely to be the gradual conversion of office blocks, retail spaces and nightlife venues into investment properties. Many of these investment properties have overseas owners, who leave them vacant rather than living in them, renting them out or doing short term letting (a la AirBnB).

    More jargon watch related content here.

  • Stott on Hong Kong + more things

    Clifford Stott did a call with the Hong Kong Democrat Party on the Hong Kong protests. His responses also cover issues around COVID-19 and how western nations handle crises. Stott believes that China will be a malign authoritarian influence beyond Hong Kong.

    https://youtu.be/-yr41blUudU

    Clifford Stoff is an expert on deescalation and riot prevention. He came to prominence when he was one of a number of international experts who stepped aside from the Hong Kong government IPCC enquiry. Instead he cowrote Patterns of ‘Disorder’ During the 2019 Protests in Hong Kong: Policing, Social Identity, Intergroup Dynamics, and Radicalization

    Probably one of the darkest aspects of the video is when Stott points out that he visited Hong Kong at the invitation of the Hong Kong Police and wouldn’t be able to go back due to the National Security Law. More security related content here.

    DuckDuckGo surpasses 100 million daily search queries for the first time | ZDNet 

    Safari 14 added WebExtensions support. So where are the extensions? – Six Colors – extensions offer the kind of functionality that push apps used to provide

    How Social Media’s Obsession with Scale Supercharged Disinformation | HBR 

    The Opposite of Mercedes’ Hyperscreen: The Heavily Analog Dashboards of Rally Cars – Core77 – in criticism of convergence in product design

    Where’s the spark? How lockdown caused a creativity crisis | Financial Times – “I don’t look back on the past year and think the collaborations I’ve been involved in are any less creative than before. But I don’t know what I’ve missed.”

    Tory rebels seek to block trade deal with China over Uighurs | Financial Times – Boris Johnson faces a rebellion by about 30 Tory MPs on Tuesday who are seeking to block a potential post-Brexit trade deal with China over its human rights record. The amendment to the trade deal — promoting a UK trade policy that upholds human rights — is co-sponsored by one-time Tory leader Iain Duncan Smith and former minister Nusrat Ghani. It would stop ministers from cutting trade deals with countries found guilty of genocide by the High Court. It is backed by all the opposition parties as well as the Muslim Council of Britain and the Board of Deputies of British Jews

    Beijing spying fears as it emerges airframes of new MoD spy planes were previously used by Chinese airlines – and what was the MoD procurement people doing?

    We don’t need strategists, we need planners – good op-ed by Dave Trott

    Making Sense of the Facebook Menace | The New Republic – interesting but flawed analysis of Facebook

    Behind a Secret Deal Between Google and Facebook – The New York Times 

    As Adobe Flash stops running, so do some railroads in China – Tuesday’s chaos arose after China Railway Shenyang failed to deactivate Flash in time, leading to a complete shutdown of its railroads in Dalian, Liaoning province. Staffers were reportedly unable to view train operation diagrams, formulate train sequencing schedules and arrange shunting plans.Authorities fixed the issue by installing a pirated version of Flash at 4:30 a.m. the following day.