According to the AMA – Marketing is the activity, set of institutions, and processes for creating, communicating, delivering, and exchanging offerings that have value for customers, clients, partners, and society at large. This has contained a wide range of content as a section over the years including
Super Bowl advertising
Spanx
Content marketing
Fake product reviews on Amazon
Fear of finding out
Genesis the Korean luxury car brand
Guo chao – Chinese national pride
Harmony Korine’s creative work for 7-Eleven
Advertising legend Bill Bernbach
Japanese consumer insights
Chinese New Year adverts from China, Hong Kong, Malaysia and Singapore
Doughnutism
Consumer Electronics Show (CES)
Influencer promotions
A media diary
Luxe streetwear
Consumerology by marketing behaviour expert Phil Graves
Payola
Dettol’s back to work advertising campaign
Eat Your Greens edited by Wiemer Snijders
Dove #washtocare advertising campaign
The fallacy of generations such as gen-z
Cultural marketing with Stüssy
How Brands Grow Part 2 by Jenni Romaniuk and Byron Sharp
Facebook’s misleading ad metrics
The role of salience in advertising
SAS – What is truly Scandinavian? advertising campaign
Brand winter
Treasure hunt as defined by NPD is the process of consumers bargain hunting
Lovemarks
How Louis Vuitton has re-engineered its business to handle the modern luxury consumer’s needs and tastes
If you’re reading this blog, you probably have a passing familiarity with the work of Hunter S. Thompson. Thompson’s most famous work Fear and Loathing in Last Vegas was a semi-biographical work that told the trip of Thompson and hispanic rights activist Oscar Zeta Acosta to go from east Los Angeles to Las Vegas. Oscar Zeta Acosta was an advocate for the rights of what would be now called the LatinX community in the United States. He was a lawyer by profession and respected member of his community. I don’t want to give anything further away about the story that led up the disappearance of Oscar Zeta Acosta.
Londongrad
The Economist have done a documentary on how London was so popular as a destination for laundering their money and reputation. London has built up a reputation for where oligarchs from Russia and other countries and former government officials go to invest and live.
They will often have their significant others live in London, while they act as an astronaut partner. The rationale for such an arrangement may vary. One may wish to protect your family from a badly behaving state. This would be similar to the why so many Hong Kongers had their families live in Canada from the late 1960s onward. Even Hong Kong’s richest man Li Ka-shing had his family in Vancouver.
A darker reason would be the trend toward kleptocracy which has flourished across the former Soviet bloc. The trend has become so pronounced that central and west London has been nicknamed Londongrad. Along with the oligarchs has flourished a range of professional and personal services to cater for their every need. But the oligarchs wouldn’t have come if a services framework didn’t exist in Londongrad. The legal and financial services were built up over time to benefit the aristocracy and then attract overseas capital post-war, most notably ‘Euro dollars’ from petrostates and the beneficiaries of globalisation. Londongrad built on these foundations.
To give an idea where some of the money that comes into Londongrad; look no further than the Russian frontlines in the Ukrainian war.
Samsung Bespoke
Cheil Worldwide have done a new film for Samsung’s Bespoke range of refrigerators and freezers. It’s got a huge amount of craft in the production. Check it out.
Shin Ultraman
Ultraman is getting the modernisation treatment that Godzilla had a few years ago. It’s now in the cinema in Japan and here’s the trailer. While the film might be more polished than the original, that doesn’t mean that the creators didn’t know a good thing when they saw it and kept the Showa-era vibe of the original Ultraman film typography.
Michael Caine on class
I am a big fan of Caine’s performance in The Ipcress File, a film adaptation of Len Deighton’s novel of the same name. Much of the rest of his work leaves me cold. I came across this clip where Michael Caine talks about class, which I thought was more relevant today than it was when it was originally recorded. Michael Caine has since gone on to support the party of the establishment which makes his earlier class consciousness ironic.
What’s next for Glossier as founder Emily Weiss steps down after eight years | Vogue Business – Glossier is famous for popularising millennial pink in its stores, its zip-lock bubble pouch and for pioneering everyday beauty in an industry obsessed with perfection. However, signs of internal shifts began earlier this year when the beauty brand laid off nearly one-third of its staff, according to an internal email obtained by Modern Retail. It also enlisted the singer and Gen Z favourite Olivia Rodrigo to promote the brand in April, after years of relying on its own community. There have been other bumps in the road. Two years ago the sub-brand Glossier Play closed, and the brand was also called out by former store employees who made allegations about racist behaviour and a toxic work culture. Glossier publicly apologised. – for many marketers in the beauty and personal care space Glossier was the poster child of a ‘new way’ of brand building. It looks as if it wasn’t the new way at all and its had to pivot to more conventional means.
Glossier is moving from scrappy start-up to a mainstream beauty brand. Will Weiss stepping back mean that Glossier will be up for sale?
Consumer behaviour
How Labour lost the Indian vote in the local elections – New Statesman – new Indian immigrants have more in common with Rishi Sunak than with the 1970s East Africans. Born to a wealthy, upper-caste Hindu family, this immigrant is likely to have attended one of India’s most prestigious private schools, aspiring to attend an Ivy League university. They were raised by domestic help who cooked and cleaned for them. Sunak embodies the Indian upper middle class. He understands the new wealthy India. Hell, he’s a card-carrying member of the new wealthy India: the Stanford educated son-in-law of one of the biggest Indian tech families, born to middle-class Indian doctors. This means that when Labour draws attention to Sunak’s elitist background, it makes him more appealing to both Indian demographics. He achieved the social mobility the 20th-century immigrants hoped for for their children, and he is a member of the family that encapsulates the new elite India
Economics
All the reasons why so many near-retirees are going back to work — Quartz – the pandemic may have been an even bigger setback to this age group than the current data suggests. There may be many older workers who want to return to work right now and are facing well-established obstacles, such as age discrimination, that make it much harder for an older employee to be rehired after leaving or losing a job, Davis suggests. Going back to work after retirement? It’s complicated. The data also don’t indicate how many of the people who went back to work would have preferred to retire, but couldn’t—a sign that the system could be failing them
Is British science aiding and abetting the Chinese human organ trade? – Last month, for example, a government bill was passed banning British citizens from travelling overseas to purchase an organ. Accompanying this awareness is a growing unease in western academia. Eminent medics are starting to look back uncomfortably on decades of “constructive engagement” with the Chinese medical establishment – those all-expenses-paid trips to lecture budding surgeons, and the profitable arrangements to train batches of them in the west. Meanwhile editors of academic journals are scouring their back issues for too-good-to-be-true studies on organ transplants, that may have arisen from experimentation on human guinea pigs in places such as Xinjiang. In October last year a world-renowned Australian transplant doctor, Professor Russell Strong, called on all Chinese surgeons to be banned from western hospitals to prevent them using the skills they pick up there in the organ harvesting market. Now, a leading human rights body has warned medical equipment manufacturers – among others – that they might be prosecuted if their kit is found to be used in the illegal Chinese trade. – this is going to expand areas of decoupling
Unilever’s Samir Singh: Sustainability shouldn’t burden consumers with guilt or expense | Campaign Asia – existential threats to the personal care business wouldn’t just come from being innovation laggards, but could also come from feisty D2C brands or strong local rivals eating into market share. Here, Singh is more concerned about one over the other. “Despite the noise, D2C brands have made no impact on market share charts in the personal care business,” he contends. “You will hear a lot about them for the first six months to a year, (then) they will peak and then in two or three years, they tend to disappear.” Instead, it is strong homegrown local brands that worry Singh more. He points out that across categories ranging from deodorants to skin care and across markets ranging from India to Indonesia, Unilever has felt local threats to its storied global brands. These brands have been able to compete on price, innovation, distribution and brand recall. “While we have been winning with our global names, these local brands have taken market share from us previously,” he admits. – this looks like headstone for the DTC CPG boom, other comments about sustainability are interesting as well
Chanel profits skyrocket 171% on price hikes, Americas gains | Vogue Business – Chanel famously increased the prices of its iconic handbags last year (the small Classic Flap bag rose by an average 21 per cent in 2020 and a further 30 per cent in 2021, according to Jefferies analyst Flavio Cereda) and said a twice-year price adjustment is the norm for the brand. Price increases “depend on product categories and countries because it depends if the currency in one country has moved in a direction. There is not a single pricing decision which has been made in January. Usually, we revise, we adjust prices when we have to, twice a year.”
Joint Venture Between High-Tech Rheinmetall AG and DEMALOG, Germany’s Biggest Biometrics Company – Soldier Systems Daily – The strategic objective is to integrate biometric technology, artificial intelligence software, and digitization solutions in three different areas: driver monitoring, security, and industry. For Rheinmetall, the joint venture marks an important step in the transformation to digitization technology and expanding into driver monitoring solutions. Furthermore, the new joint venture enhances the Düsseldorf-based technology group’s future-oriented diversification into biometrics applications geared to the security sector and industry. The move also adds to its existing digitization and software expertise. Importantly, the partnership reinforces Rheinmetall’s capabilities in five strategic technology clusters: automation, sensors, digitization, alternative mobility, and artificial intelligence
Virtual clubbing points to future profits from the metaverse | FT – Hybe, the agency behind K-pop band BTS, was hit by a 98 per cent plunge in sales from its core live concert business in 2020 as tours were cancelled. But total annual revenues and operating profit still rose over a third, as it was quick to offer VR concerts and content. With such digital content repurposed at a fraction of the cost of live shows, operating margins rose to nearly a fifth higher than pre-pandemic levels. CJ ENM, which started using the latest VR and augmented reality technology for its virtual concerts in 2020, has also enjoyed a boost to content sales. These have since risen steadily, more than doubling in the latest quarter, as did operating profits from its music division. For Sony, sales from its music segment rose a fifth in the year to March
Making the metaverse – Smart2.0 – its odd, or disingenuous the way Meta is outlining an open metaverse rather than a walled garden, rather like a turkey voting for Christmas
Davis Polk Asia chair withdraws from Hong Kong security law forum | Financial Times – Guessing that Davis Polk Asia didn’t do a thorough opportunity cost analysis before agreeing to participate in the Hong Kong National Security Law Forum. An alternative hypothesis that I have heard about Davis Polk Asia could be due to being really screwed globally and will ANYTHING for some billings. Even if David Polk Asia really desperate, I can’t imagine that there will be that much upside in the greater China market and maybe some backlash in the law firm’s other international and US domestic offices. The backlash happened as soon as the FT published news of their forthcoming participation. I can also imagine that the subsequent Davis Polk Asia withdrawal will cause blowback with mainland clients and government contacts. The smart play for Davis Polk Asia would have been to decline the place in the first instance. It is even more surprising when David Polk Asia could have looked at Mayer Brown pulling away from representing Hong Kong University last year was a case study in likely outcomes. Given that one would want solid wise heads in the senior staff of a law office rather than status seeking sycophants, the Davis Polk Asia chairman Mr Rogers doesn’t look like a credit to his firm. Discretion might have been the better part of valour in this case.
Shanghai lockdown exposes global supply chain strains | Financial Times – the Port of Los Angeles, for example, is monitoring data from China on energy consumption, traffic patterns and pollution, to understand how busy the country’s factories are so it can prepare for the volumes of cargo to come. “I’m on the phone most evenings with friends . . . in Shanghai telling me what’s happening on the ground,” – interesting how they’re having to rely on abstract data
As Q1 results disappoint, should brands look beyond China? | Advertising | Campaign Asia – brands were able to offset these losses thanks to the strength in North America and Europe. Aeffe, the parent company of Mochino, nearly tripled its net income in the three month period, as Europe (which represents almost one-third of its total revenue) jumped 37.5% thanks to Germany and the UK. Tapestry shares even climbed on May 12 after it posted that sales in North America rose 22% year-on-year, fully offsetting mid-teens decline in China. These two regions will be crucial as China slowly recovers from its worst Covid wave since 2020. Although the mainland is on track to become the world’s largest luxury market by 2025, the US is still in top spot, accounting for 31% of the global market (China accounts for 21%). As such, it is important for brands to continue building traction in North America and Europe to cushion against near-term losses in Asia
China Brief: Expanding State Power Still Tops Xi Jinping’s Agenda – The published speech shows how much of Xi’s economic thinking is about control, tied to what he sees as a necessary expansion of government power. The speech frames China’s problems as coming down to the “reckless expansion of capital,” or private industry, which can only be curbed by expanding the CCP’s power. That idea relates to one of Xi’s favorite terms from last year: “common prosperity,” achieved via the redistribution of wealth. Publishing the 2021 speech now may be an attempt to revitalize that language. Other Chinese officials, such as Premier Li Keqiang, are focused primarily on addressing economic issues, but party power still tops Xi’s agenda. One part of the speech may seem incompatible with its profession of socialist values: how conservative it sounds about welfare. Xi explicitly states that “common prosperity” isn’t welfare. His words also suggest a fear of overpromising what the government can deliver, but they also echo an idea I’ve heard from rich and powerful people in China—that people living in democracies never vote to cut welfare benefits because the public is lazy and entitled
Consumer behaviour
“Macho pink” menswear takes over in China | Vogue Business – “Macho pink” can be seen as a kind of “rebellion”, however, this rebellion currently remains limited to product categories considered mainstream for men, such as e-sports, sneakers and electronics. As male consumers in China put more emphasis on self-expression, this is validated to some extent by pink goods. – this reminds me of the bold neon colours of 1980s skiwear brands like Nevica. More on the social impact here: Millennial Pink Begone, Enter the Age of Hot Pink Fury | High Sobriety
Liberals Should Be Worried About the Conservative Comedy Scene – POLITICO – Conservative humorists aren’t merely catching up to their liberal counterparts in terms of reach and popularity. They’ve already caught them — and, in some cases, surpassed them, even as the liberal mainstream has continued to write conservative comedy off as a contradiction in terms. “[Liberals] are ceding ideological territory in the culture wars to the right via comedy,” Marx told me, noting that once-beloved liberal comedians like Stewart are struggling to find their footing in the treacherous landscape of post-Trump humor. “This thing that we thought we have owned for the last 20 years has been leaking, and the borders are slowly getting shifted.”
Company Reviews on Glassdoor: Petty Complaints or Signs of Potential Misconduct? – HBS Working Knowledge – Whether it’s Theranos and its fraudulent blood testing technology, Wells Fargo and its fake financial accounts, or Volkswagen and its bogus emissions data, a whistleblower eventually comes forward to expose the behavior, and executives are held accountable. “But what you start to realize is that the problems that have been uncovered have been going on for a very long time,” says Dennis Campbell, a professor of business administration at Harvard Business School. Far from being just a few bad apples, most business improprieties occur within a widespread culture of bad behavior—or at least, a lot of people looking the other way as misconduct is taking place, he says.
Koreans Think AI Is the Future – The Chosun Ilbo – 1/ artificial intelligence 2/ robotics 3/ future mobility 4/ hydrogen fuel 5/ energy 6/ biotechnology 7/ aerospace 8/ new materials 9/ batteries 10/ semiconductors – skews to Korea’s current strengths in semiconductors, hydrogen fuel cells and robotics
Luxury
LVMH-owned watchmaker Tag Heuer to accept crypto payments | Vogue Business – terrible timing given the bear market in crypto at the moment. Its also part of the odder financial aspects happening in the watch sector. From companies going vertical into the pre-owned marketplace to Breitling adopting a car lease type model for watches
Marketers, investing in market research is not superfluous – there is the big initial deep dive that happens when a new CMO arrives or a new product or market is contemplated. Second, there is the lesser but more common annual research that updates the organisation on the market, its segments and associated behaviour that feeds annual market planning. Finally, there is the more occasional inquiry into a specific micro issue that springs up. A pricing problem, a sudden reduction in market share or some other occasional issue that demands customer insight to guide management action
Hong Kong Considers Blocking Telegram Messaging App, Local Paper Says – Bloomberg – Hong Kong authorities are deliberating whether to curtail public access to the messaging service Telegram, the Sing Tao Daily reported, potentially reviving fears the former British colony is moving closer toward Beijing-style internet controls. The Privacy Commissioner for Personal Data is considering invoking regulations for the first time to restrict access to a platform it found to be rampant with doxxing, the local newspaper reported Tuesday. The widespread doxxing — or online exposure of sensitive and personal data — was aimed at government officials as well as citizens, the newspaper said, citing unidentified people.
Chinese Hackers Tried to Steal Russian Defense Data, Report Says – The New York Times – The emails landed on March 23 in the inboxes of scientists and engineers at several of Russia’s military research and development institutes, purportedly sent by Russia’s Ministry of Health. They carried a subject line that offered seemingly tantalizing information about a “list of persons under U.S. sanctions for invading Ukraine.” But the emails were actually sent by state-sponsored hackers in China seeking to entice their Russian targets to download and open a document with malware, according to a new report to be released Thursday by the Israeli-American cybersecurity firm Check Point… The Chinese campaign targeted Russian institutes that research airborne satellite communications, radar and electronic warfare
I have put together a metaverse discussion paper. This post is the executive summary of the metaverse discussion paper. The full paper has much more context including context on the history of the metaverse, the current reality and separating out the hype.
This originally started as a discussion paper drafted during quiet moments at work. Client work got in the way developing it further. I didn’t have time to complete writing the metaverse discussion paper beyond an outline and supporting research.
A good deal of my work is to do with brand experience. So, it made sense for me to dig in and find out more about the metaverse from the perspective of what it means to brands. I structured my approach in understanding the metaverse, in terms of:
What is currently being said
The past developments leading up to the metaverse
Possible futures
How to use the metaverse discussion paper
This document contains a large amount of content. I would advise that you read the executive summary and everything else you can dive into as your muse or boredom strikes you.
The link to the full metaverse discussion paper is at the bottom of the post. I am giving it away for free under a Creative Commons Attribution – No Derivatives licence.
Available for free download at the bottom of the post.
The current state of the metaverse and the technology sectors attitude to it can be best understood through the words of a mid-20th century political thinker Ivan Chtcheglov. Chtcheglov reflected on an illusory imagined construction.
And you, forgotten, your memories ravaged by all the consternations of two hemispheres, stranded in the Red Cellars of Pali-Kao, without music and without geography, no longer setting out for the hacienda where the roots think of the child and where the wine is finished off with fables from an old almanac. That’s all over. You’ll never see the hacienda. It doesn’t exist.
What became apparent as I researched for this document was how companies were trying to solve problems that were a small part of what will be needed for a metaverse. This is because the metaverse as envisaged in science fiction and technology as ‘thought leadership’ will require a wide range of technology problems to be solved. For instance, the current technologists haven’t been able to surpass the vivid experiences created in mid-to-late 20th century cinemas and theme parks.
Broadly the technology challenges would be characterised as:
Scalability
Believable and immersive
Open and portable in nature from a technology perspective
Decentralized
Traversable – the ability to ‘travel’ around and between worlds
Able to conduct commerce and exchange
Social
Secure and trusted
Many companies have deep expertise in some parts of the metaverse problem. Some work builds on decades of work in areas such as virtual reality and haptic technology. But these areas haven’t progressed with the kind of pace one would expect from Moore’s Law.[2] Technologists are trying to work out how existing technologies, like distributed databases, games physics engines and realistic computer rendering could be used to solve some of the problems needed to be addressed to build a future metaverse.
What we saw with the web, but are not seeing with the metaverse at the moment is collaboration. There isn’t open collaborative work towards a maturing standards environment necessary for interoperability as well as a solid direction to help define future metaverse technologies. The lack of collaboration makes it hard to predict, if or when we would be likely to see a metaverse. We can speculate how the future supporting technologies for the metaverse might net out based on heuristics like Moore’s Law or Metcalfe’s Law[3].[4] It would be impossible to speculate on the realpolitik required to build the ‘metaverse’ and what would drive its universal adoption over time.
But that isn’t stopping companies thinking about how the metaverse work with their brands. Governments are also giving a lot of thought to the coming metaverse including:
The provision of services in a ‘metaverse’ environment
How to manage market competition
Understanding the potential of the metaverse to foment social disturbances and imperil security
Since the metaverse, doesn’t currently exist as envisaged, it makes sense to look for analogues. These analogues include social trends in highly evolved technology markets and precursor technologies such as gaming and VR. The goal of the research would be to try and understand what it might look like when digital immersive experiences become commonplace.
Consultants like Forrester Research[5] and McKinsey are recommending that organisations get involved with precursors to learn, but also temper their expectations. There is a limitation to this approach, technology and culture evolve with use. Scale changes things further. Norms that were established when platforms have 100,000s of users evolve or fade away when the user number goes to 100s of millions or even billions.
One of the ways that this research happens is through a resurgence of technologist and marketer interest in virtual worlds like Roblox and AltspaceVR. These virtual worlds allow experimentation to discover what works (and what doesn’t) far in advance of the future metaverse. Deloitte Consulting considered that one of the three business model scenarios for the metaverse was what they termed a ‘Low Orbit’ where the metaverse like VR, continues to be used for niche rather than general purpose uses. The current virtual worlds lean more towards the ‘Low Orbit’ model. The current belief[6] that games are the metaverse falls firmly into the ‘Low Orbit’ model.
Assuming for a moment that businesses manage to retain and build on the body of knowledge they get through this experimentation they will hopefully answer questions like:
Using VR early adopters as a proxy for metaverse users, what works from a marketing effectiveness perspective, in driving brand awareness and brand activation?
How effective are virtual world experiences in terms of brand awareness and brand activation? How does it benchmark against web-based media, mobile apps, out of home (OOH), cinema and broadcast media like connected and conventional television?
What are the dos and don’ts acquired through experimentation in virtual worlds from user experience design perspective for brands?
How would a virtual world assist in digital consumer testing and virtual crowdsourcing before committing to manufacture an item at scale? What are the strengths and limitations in this approach?
What tactics are drive brand awareness in a virtual world in an effective manner?
When do experiences get old and have to be refreshed?
How can the brand be a better citizen in the virtual world? How much interaction is required with ‘real’ brand ambassadors?
Some of the platforms like Meta’s Horizon Worlds and Animoca Brands’ The Sandbox hope to be the metaverse. They desire to incorporate the consumers entire perceived metaverse. An analogue to the business models of Horizon Worlds or The Sandbox would be walled garden ‘super apps’ WeChat and the Taobao that currently represent most of the consumer mobile web in China today. Or the walled garden ‘desktop web’ experience[7] of AOL[8] in pre-broadband America. Deloitte Consulting outlined this approach as one of their likely business model scenarios of the metaverse. They called it a ‘Double Star’.
Platforms face a big challenge; consumer expectations are well over a decade ahead of what the technology can actually deliver.
Even if the technology is successful, the challenge for brands, walled garden and open metaverse platforms are many. Here are two of the biggest challenges to get started:
How do brands and platforms show that sufficient effort has been done to keep users safe? This isn’t only about filtering content, but filtering behaviour. Will post-censure of bad behaviour be sufficient? Will the environment be sufficiently safe for brands to participate and advertise?
In a world of ESG[9] considerations, would an energy intensive virtual pleasure palace be too much for investors or purpose-driven brand owners like BlackRock, Proctor & Gamble or Unilever?
[1] Chtcheglov, I.V. (1953) Formulaire pour un urbanisme nouveau. France – http://www.bopsecrets.org/SI/Chtcheglov.htm
[2] Gregersen, E. (July 21, 2011) Moore’s Law. United States: Encyclopaedia Britannica – https://www.britannica.com/technology/Moores-law
[3] Metcalfe, R. (August 18, 2006) Guest Blogger Bob Metcalfe: Metcalfe’s Law Recurses Down the Long Tail of Social Networks. United States: VCMike via wordpress.com – https://vcmike.wordpress.com/2006/08/18/metcalfe-social-networks/
[4] Shapiro, C. and Varian, H.R. (1999). Information Rules. United States: Harvard Business Press
[5] Proulx, M., Ask, J., Bennett, M., Gownder, J.P., & Truog, D. (March 29, 2022) There Is No Metaverse Today, But Be Prepared. United States: Forrester Research – https://www.forrester.com/blogs/there-is-no-metaverse-today-but-be-prepared/
[6] Whatley, J. (May 17, 2022) The metaverse doesn’t exist! You’re talking about gaming. United Kingdom: The Drum – https://www.thedrum.com/opinion/2022/05/17/the-metaverse-doesn-t-exist-you-re-talking-about-gaming
[7] (September 4, 2000) AOL’s ‘Walled Garden’. United States: The Wall Street Journal – https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB968104011203980910?reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
[9] Environmental, Social and Governance criteria. Standards used by socially conscious investors as a way to filter investment decisions. More here – https://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/environmental-social-and-governance-esg-criteria.asp
An interesting essay on the nature of scientific slow down that applies as much to applied innovation as well – Scientific slowdown is not inevitable – Works in Progress – The most popular version of the low-hanging fruit model is that we are picking fruit at a slower rate because the higher-up fruit are harder to get to. You can only invent fire, the wheel, or a flint axe once. This story says that declining research productivity is inevitable. The fact that we once saw increasing scientific progress is because we were continually increasing inputs: adding more researchers, more research tools and technology. But now research is getting so much harder that even this is not enough. But another explanation for falling innovation ‘yields’ is that we are getting worse at picking it, despite the progress in picking methods that has happened. We’ve handed in our stepladders for footstools, without realising it. Our recent decline in innovation vibrancy might be explained by ideas becoming inherently harder to find, but it may just as easily be explained by us becoming worse at finding them. – The scientific slow down is real and is occurring across disciplines:
Pharmaceutical research is taking longer and there is a patent cliff on blockbuster drugs
Each process change in semiconductors costs more money and takes more time
Software takes more lines of code
But the scientific slow down might also be down to problems with incentives. Technology executive and engineer Judy Estrin talked about the way ‘hard innovation’ is no longer invested in compared to ‘soft innovation’. Innovation itself has become financialised with blockchain being like a snake eating its tale. The scientific slow down could be as much related to the incentives and choices that drive research. The scientific slow down could also be down to the divorce between developing and making things. Silicon Valley is no longer making silicon. So it is harder to foster an eco-system to deal with scientific slow down.
China Will Be Deglobalization’s Big Loser by Minxin Pei – Project Syndicate – China was headed toward at least a partial decoupling with the United States well before Russia invaded Ukraine. And it has been seeking to ensure that this process happens on its terms, by reducing its dependence on US markets and technology. To that end, in 2020 China unveiled its so-called dual-circulation strategy, which aims to foster domestic demand and technological self-sufficiency. And yet, last year, China was still the world’s largest exporter, shipping $3.3 trillion in goods to the rest of the world, with the US its leading export market. In fact, overall trade with the US grew by more than 20% in 2021, as total Chinese trade reached a new high. Trade with the European Union also grew, reaching $828 billion, even as disagreements over human rights torpedoed a controversial EU-China investment agreement.
Cleaning Up Streetwear’s Act | High Snobriety – the European Commission are proposing new standards which would dictate how durable apparel would need to be in addition to bans on the destruction of unsold materials. This comes at a time when a cavernous dichotomy exists between the cohort of people who require their products to be sustainably minded and the growing number of consumers who succumb to the whims of fast fashion led by retailers like Shein mushrooming to a $100 billion valuation
