Ged Carroll

Category: technology | 技術 | 기술 | テクノロジー

It’s hard to explain to someone who didn’t live through it how transformation technology has been. When I was a child a computer was something mysterious. My Dad has managed to work his way up from the shop floor of the shipyard where he worked and into the planning office.

One evening he broad home some computer paper. I was fascinated by the the way the paper hinged on perforations and had tear off side edges that allowed it to be pulled through the printer with plastic sprockets connecting through holes in the paper.

My Dad used to compile and print off work orders using an ICL mainframe computer that was timeshared by all the shipyards that were part of British Shipbuilders.

I used the paper for years for notes and my childhood drawings. It didn’t make me a computer whiz. I never had a computer when I was at school. My school didn’t have a computer lab. I got to use Windows machines a few times in a regional computer labs. I still use what I learned in Excel spreadsheets now.

My experience with computers started with work and eventually bought my own secondhand Mac. Cut and paste completely changed the way I wrote. I got to use internal email working for Corning and internet connectivity when I went to university. One of my friends had a CompuServe account and I was there when he first met his Mexican wife on an online chatroom, years before Tinder.

Leaving college I set up a Yahoo! email address. I only needed to check my email address once a week, which was fortunate as internet access was expensive. I used to go to Liverpool’s cyber cafe with a friend every Saturday and showed him how to use the internet. I would bring any messages that I needed to send pre-written on a floppy disk that also held my CV.

That is a world away from the technology we enjoy now, where we are enveloped by smartphones and constant connectivity. In some ways the rate of change feels as if it has slowed down compared to the last few decades.

  • iPhone X launch + more things

    iPhone X launch

    In terms of the news agenda, the iPhone X launch dominated the news. I wrote about it here and here.  This image from the Chinese internet summed everything about the iPhone X launch up for me.

    Chinese reaction to iPhone X

    We’re in a place of innovation stuckness at the moment – we’re celebrating incremental improvements in user experiences on smartphones as transformational, they aren’t. This is a category challenge, not a vendor-specific one. Even infrastructure and component vendor Qualcomm is struggling to envision ways to move things on.

    I have been mostly listening to this playlist from this years Love International Festival

    And FIP Radio

    Japanese group meforyouforme combining traditional Japanese culture and dance with modern tap dancing FTW


    Hong Kong stars Donnie Yen and Andy Lau go back to the 1970s with Chasing the Dragon – a thriller based on real characters involved in drug smuggling and organised crime in the turbulent go-go economic boom of Hong Kong – Lee Rock (Lui Lok) was a corrupt policeman nicknamed 500 million dollar Inspector, who avoided corruption charges by moving to Canada and then Hong Kong. Crippled (or Limpy) Ho was a triad called Ng Sek-ho who rivalled the 14K triad group.  It is against the backdrop of the post-1967 riots economic boom which saw Hong Kong blow up in manufacturing and financial services. This brought rich pickings in corruption which led to the formation of the ICAC – the Independent Commission Against Corruption.

  • Gimlet Media + other news

    Gimlet Media

    WPP locks in minority stake in Gimlet Media podcast network | Mumbrella – podcasting as an advertising / sponsorship format seems to have got over its measurability barrier. Gimlet Media was founded in 2014 and has a range of factual and entertainment content franchises including investigative journalism, comedy and commentary on internet culture. A number of Gimlet Media shows moved over from being produced by the Australian Broadcasting Corporation to continuing on their podcasting network.

    Business

    UK car sales and registrations down – Business Insider – British people have a close to zero household savings rate, and way too much debt, making further car purchases difficult. Consumers are afraid a recession might be coming and have reduced their spending on expensive items. The PCP car loan trend may have peaked, flooding the market with nearly new used cars. – two things about this, the UK is way over leveraged at a government and consumer level. Brexit is just going to make this a lot worse. Secondly, the auto finance model is broken and the UK could be the contagion that causes a sub-prime two crisis to ripple around the world. It also make the UK market less attractive for European exporters, which means a harder time trying to get a deal for BREXIT

    Uber’s “clean air” fund | FT Alphaville – its actually a passenger tax, yet another reason to go with Addison Lee who already have hybrids in their fleet

    Finance

    China to Shut Bitcoin Exchanges – WSJ – interesting that the article doesn’t cite sources. Caixin broke this story at the end of last week. Is this down to these currencies providing black economy payments and capital flight?

    Ireland

    With direct flights to Dublin, Cathay takes big bet on Ireland | HKEJ Insight – huge for Ireland, expect more long haul flights in there

    Legal

    Qualcomm demonstrates their Sleaziness by Posting a Press Release Downplaying any possible iPhone X Advancements – Patently Apple – guessing Qualcomm thinks that it won’t be settling its law suits with Apple then

    Luxury

    Dapper Dan, the original tailor to hip-hop royalty, now has a deal with Gucci | Quartz – it was only a matter of time, really happy for Dan – if 30 years too late

    Strange Bedfellows? Collaborations Help Young Brands Make Ends Meet — The Fashion Law

    Online

    Why RSS Still Beats Facebook and Twitter for Tracking News | Fieldguide – couldn’t agree more

    Spotify Web Player No Longer Compatible With Apple’s Safari Browser – Mac Rumors – interesting that Spotify uses a Google plug-in with security issues

    Ecouter FIP | Radio Musicale Eclectique – very nice early morning listening

    Technology

    Fab equipment spending breaking industry records | Electroiq – foundries are anticipating continuing electronics demand rather than a flattening or a slow down

    Autonomous Cars: The Level 5 Fallacy – Monday Note – A two-to-three year engineering timeline isn’t unusual; five years is considered longterm. Beyond the five-year horizon? No thanks, I’ll switch to a more spiritually and financially rewarding pursuit. We’ll leave the worthy but nebulous commitments to Carnegie Mellon and Stanford. In other words: No Level 5 in the foreseeable, bankable future. Instead of the soothing vision of a saloon on wheels on the road tomorrow… That’s Uber’s autonomous aspirations fucked then and probably explains why Apple has scaled back its car ambitions for the time being. It also shows the corporate aversion to hard innovation now, compared to 50 years ago

    For Superpowers, Artificial Intelligence Fuels New Global Arms Race | WIRED – faster optimal approaches

    Web of no web

    The Inspection Chamber – BBC R&D – really nice project with voice activated services

    LTE Apple Watch uses same phone number as iPhone, some carriers to offer free/cheaper trial plans | 9to5Mac – is it just me or does sounds like a waste of space? I am more interested in the longer term if experiments like this provide Apple with a way to improve power management and consumption on their smartphones

  • FaceID

    @ WWDC

    Apple’s facial recognition aka FaceID has spurred a number of discussions about the privacy trade-offs in the iPhone X.

    Experts Weigh Pros, Cons of FaceID Authentication in iPhone X | Dark Reading – One concern about FaceID is in its current implementation, only one face can be used per device, says Pepijn Bruienne, senior R&D engineer at Duo Security. TouchID lets users register up to five fingerprints. If a third party obtains a user’s fingerprint and reproduces it, and the user is aware, they could register a different unique fingerprint.

    Can Cops Force You to Unlock Your Phone With Your Face? | The Atlantic – Even if Face ID is advanced enough to keep pranksters out, many wondered Tuesday if it would actually make it easier for police to get in. Could officers force someone they’ve arrested to look into their phone to unlock it?

    How Secure Is The iPhone X’s FaceID? Here’s What We Know | Wired – Marc Rogers, a security researcher at Cloudflare who was one of the first to demonstrate spoofing a fake fingerprint to defeat TouchID. Rogers says he has no doubt that he—or at least someone—will crack FaceID. In an interview ahead of Apple’s FaceID announcement, Rogers suggested that 3-D printing a target victim’s head and showing it to their phone might be all it takes. “The moment someone can reproduce your face in a way that can be played back to the computer, you’ve got a problem,” Roger says. “I’d love to start by 3-D-printing my own head and seeing if I can use that to unlock it.” 

    Now lets talk about the Apple Watch, which I consider to present more serious issues.
     
    The Apple Watch 3 is interesting from a legislative point-of-view. The software SIM in the Apple Watch clones the number of your iPhone. The security services of the major powers generally don’t broadcast their capabilities. Politicians are generally untroubled by knowledge of what is possible. Giving politicians an inkling is likely to result in broad sweeping authoritarian power. 
    Imagine what will happen when Amber Rudd goes into parliament looking for real-time access to everyone’s phones. She now can point to the Apple Watch 3 as evidence that LTE and 3G connections can be cloned. What kind of legislation will her special advisers start cooking up then?

    Secondly, it will only be a matter of time before criminals either work out how to do it themselves, or co-opt mobile carrier staff. Two factor authentication that depends on SMS is already compromised. This allows it to be compromised and undetectable.

    The Apple Watch 3 may have royally screwed us all.

  • Apple retail special Event outtakes

    Key takeouts from the Apple special event with a little bit of analysis on Apple Retail.
     
    Apple Retail
    First presentation by Angela Ahrendts. There is a question of why she hadn’t presented at previous keynotes.  My read on it is that that the revenue per square foot metric beloved of retail analysts will tumble. Apple seems to be taking the mall companies idea of shopping as entertainment and doing it for their individual stores.
    Town hall – what they call the stores internally, bigger focus on engagement rather than transactions – is this an effort to try and recapture cool?
    Store features
      • Plaza – public private spaces outside the store if possible, interesting implications on future store placements – probably less in malls
      • Forum – open plan internal space
      • Boardroom – private space focused on developer relations, was probably the most interesting push. Stores are being given a stronger push as embassies for developer relations. 
      • Creative Pro – Apple genius for the creative apps, probable mix of amateur and professional audiences addressed
      • Today at Apple – driven by Creative Pro staff to focus on creating more usuage of key offerings i.e. photo walks – think Nike Running Club. Also includes teacher outreach
      • Genius grove – the genius bar but with plants presumably to try and break up the overall store noise
    • Avenues  – wider aisles that products are on
    Continued retail expansion in the US including Chicago – interesting that international expansion wasn’t mentioned. 
     
    Apple Watch
      • 50% yearly growth – the series 2 fixed many of the hygiene factors wrong with the first version
    • 97% customer satisfaction – health seems to be driving this
    Health features: focus on heart rate monitor and getting proactive about flagging elevated heart rate. Also focusing on heart rhythm changes as well.
     
    watchOS 4 out September 19 available to all customers. Interesting that they didn’t drill into some of interesting features on watchOS 4 using Siri
     
    Series 3 Apple Watch with cellular built in. Your Dick Tracy fantasies are alive. Apple thinks that people will leave their phones at home and bring their Apple Watch. They also see it as killing the iPod Nano with wireless music playback. I am yet to be convinced.
    Apple added a barometric sensor; usage example was focused on health and fitness rather then locative apps. Not a great surprise given that these sensors have been in premium G-Shocks for a good while. 
     
    Apple used specially designed lower power wifi and Bluetooth silicon. But no news about who is making the cellular modem. The SIM is embedded on the motherboard and presumably a software update? These changes could have interesting implications for future phones?
     
    Interesting carrier partnerships, in particular all three of China’s mobile carriers, but only EE in the UK?
     
    Apple TV
     
      • Apple TV now supports 4K, unsurprising hardware upgrade and includes high dynamic range – Apple is following the TV set industry’s lead
      • More interesting is the amount of content deals Apple has done with studios, in particular keeping the price point of 4K HDR content the same as was previously charged for HD content.
      • Interesting TV partnerships but no major UK TV stations only Mubi
      • Emphasis on easy access to sports on the Apple TV would wind up cable companies further
    • Apple TV was also positioned as the control interface for HomeKit smarthome products. There was no further  update on HomeKit in the presentation 
    iPhone 8 incremental changes
     
      • Wireless charging with glass back. The steel and copper reinforcement of the glass is probably to help with the induction charging
    • Incremental improvements in picture quality. Bigger focus on AR including new sensors.
    iPhone X
     
      • Positioned as future direction for iPhones. Biometric face ID is clever but has issues. I wonder how it will work with facial hair or weight gain – Apple claims that it will adapt. Apple also claims to be able to detect photos and masks. It’s also used for face tracking in AR applications with some SnapChat lens demos.
      • As with Touch ID, there is a PIN code if your face doesn’t work. I have found that Touch ID doesn’t work all the time so you need that PIN back up.
      • The notch at the top poses some UX / design issues and the industrial design implies case free usage which will be a step away from usual iPhone usage.
    • What isn’t immediately apparent to me is the user case for the iPhone X versus the iPhone 8 plus?
    What was lacking in the iPhone presentation was a celebration of all in the changes in iOS 11 under the hood.
    A11 – Bionic chip in the iPhone 8 and X
      • Includes new integrated GPU for machine learning and graphics. This explains why Imagination Technologies are in trouble
    • New image sensor processingThe A11 processor has a hardware neural network on the chip for the iPhone X – unsure if its also usable on the 8
    Apple’s moves to embrace, co-opt Qi wireless charging and build a super-standard on top of it will likely wind up members like Qualcomm and Huawei. How much of this is down to user experience and how much is down to the desire to get Apple IP in the technology stack?
    Apple is left with a large product line of iPhones: SE, 6 series, 7 series, 8 series and the X

  • Planable + more news

    Planable

    Planable – Planable is an interesting social preview and scheduling tool, particularly for clients in highly regulated sectors such as pharma clients. I use Buffer rather than Planable

    China

    As many stats as you could possibly want if you have a passing interest in the Chinese internet ecosystem

    Consumer behaviour

    Chinese Prefer the Sound of Silence When Getting Messages From Mom – WSJ – While users take nine seconds on average to read 100 characters, they need 22 seconds to listen to the same 100 characters, excluding pauses, says Liu Xingliang, head of research at Beijing-based analytics firm Data Center of the China Internet. (Paywall)

    Economics

    The Fundamental Surplus by Lars Ljungqvist & Thomas J. Sargent – on why unemployment is hard to fix and why Phillips curves are BS (PDF)

    Luxury

    LVMH Buys Into South Korean Eyewear Brand, Gentle Monster — The Fashion Law – media speculation suggests that it could be worth about 60 billion won ($53.17 million). Per Thakran, the investment will serve to kick-start a strategy to grow the company into a billion-dollar business over the next six to eight years, up from the nearly $200 million it does now. “I believe that across Asia there are only about six to eight brands that can achieve this level of notoriety, with a unique image, that’s differentiated among lifestyle brands,”

    Marketing

    Asian unit of Bell Pottinger separates from London parent | FT – “This has been a difficult time for everyone — especially as so many good, talented and honest people have been caught up in it,” said Mr Turvey. “But I am pleased our offices in Asia now have control of their own destiny.” (paywall)

    Nike is still the king of the sneaker industry, but even great empires can fall | Quartz – much of Nike’s problems are down to poor brand management and over exploitation of assets – just look at all the Air Jordan colour ways that pass through tier zero retailers

    Media

    Facebook is (quietly) looking for an office in Shanghai | Timeout Shanghai – Facebook already sells a substantial amount of advertising to Chinese businesses looking to advertise abroad. Air China is already a marque customer for Facebook and there is a lot of direct e-commerce going on for gadgets and fast fashion

    Online

    Russia’s Facebook Fake News Could Have Reached 70 Million Americans  – $100,000 on Facebook can go a surprisingly long way, if it’s used right. On average, Facebook ads run about $6 for 1,000 impressions. By that number, the Kremlin’s $100,000 buy would get its ads seen nearly 17 million times.
    But that average hides a lot of complexity, and the actual rate can range from $1 to $100 for 1,000 impressions on an ad with pinpoint targeting. Virality matters too. Ads that get more shares, likes, and comments are far cheaper than boring ads that nobody likes, and ads that send users to Facebook posts instead of third-party websites enjoy an additional price break

    There’s something wrong with video advertising and it’s hidden in plain site  – AdNews – too many trackers degrading ad player performance and viewability

    Seniors Realize Their Travel Dreams in This Intel Virtual Reality Project – Video – Creativity Online – it reminded me a bit of Total Recall

    Advertisers bullish over ad budget | Shanghai Daily – bullish on Chinese media market prospects

    City’s telecoms operators look to new iPhone to kick-start handset sales, in long absence of ‘hero’ model | SCMP – is the lack of a hero model an indication of category design maturity?

    Technology

    Feel old? 1990 Sony Trinitron TV now considered ‘historical material’ in Japan | SCMP – it was a thing of beauty, my current TV set still doesn’t do blacks with the same inky depth as my old Trinitron set. Trinitron is also an emblem of how low Japanese consumer electronics have fallen from its pre-Internet highpoint

    Daring Fireball: Samsung’s OLED Display Monopoly – bang goes the market

    Wireless

    Apple Beats Samsung in Smartphone Sales in China and More Importantly in Repeat Sales by a Staggering Margin – Patently Apple – the problem you’ve got is the data, it can’t be trusted