Category: telecoms | 電信 | 통신 | テレコム

I thought about telecoms as a way to talk about communications networks that were not wireless. These networks could be traditional POTS (plain old telecoms systems), packet switched networks including ethernet or some hybrid of the two.

I started my agency career working during the dot com era. What was happening in the broader technology space was one wave of technology cresting, while another one rose.

In the cresting space was:

Enterprise software (supply chain software, financial systems, database software, middleware software tools).

NIC cards (network interface cards, a way of getting your computer to be able to communicate with an ethernet network. It was a little circuit board that connected on to the mother board and allowed.

Mainframe and mini-computers. It was around about this time that company owned data centres peaked.

In the rising wave was:

Servers –

Unix servers and workstation grade computers were what hosted the first generation of websites. Names that did particularly well were Sun Microsystems (now part of Oracle) and Silicon Graphics Inc. (SGI). Sun Microsystems ran everything from investment banking models to telecoms billing systems. It’s hardware and software made great web servers. SGI was facing a crisis in its core market of 3D modelling due to Moore’s Law, but its operating systems was still very powerful. They managed to get some work as servers because people had them around in creative agencies.
You also had a new range of servers on the low end. A mix of new suppliers like Cobalt Networks and VA Linux, together with existing companies like Dell who were offering Linux and Windows web servers that were really repackaged local area network file servers.

Enterprise information management software. The web posted its own problems for content management and publishing and companies like Captiva and Open Text rushed in to plug the gap.

Traditional vendors like HP and IBM rushed into provide a mix of software and hardware based solutions including e-business by IBM, which morphed into ‘Smarter Planet’

Telecoms companies – two things happened.

Phone services were deregulated opening up former state owned incumbents to competition in fixed line and mobile telephony
Data services really started to take off. Multinational companies like Shell looked to have a global data network for routing their calls over, so in many respects they looked like their own telecoms company. Then those data networks started to become of interest to the nascent internet providers as well. Mobile data started to gain traction around about the time of the dot com bust

So it made sense that I started to think about telecoms in a wide but wired sense, as it even impacts wireless as a backhaul infrastructure. Whether this is wi-fi into your home router or a 5G wireless network connecting to a fibre optic core network.

Digital China
I was looking for data on Digital China. wearesocial put together some of the best slideware together in terms of macro-dgital numbers country-by-country.

Social, Digital & Mobile in China 2014 from We Are Social Singapore

Slides and numbers only tell some of the story, so I wanted to reflect on some of the data points in the slides.
- China boasts a mobile penetration of 91%, however many people have two or more phones which means that mobile phones aren’t quite as ubiquitous as the number appears
- Desktop internet usage still occurs in internet cafes, often inside a factory complex like Foxconn’s facility in Shenzhen or off the high street of major cities where gaming is a popular pastime, this puts a slightly different complexion on the European-looking numbers for Shanghai and Beijing
- One thing that is noticeable about Chinese broadband internet connections is that whilst they have bandwidth (which averages just over 3.45MB/s according to the slides), it also has a lot of latency – due to the systems put in for local legal and regulatory compliance. Latency is important because even a small amount (just 0.025s) can adversely affect the call quality on a voice over IP call
- Mobile internet is very popular, partly because it is the only internet access that a lot of people have. The popularity has come at a price for mobile operators including infrastructure costs (so they have banded together to build a joint network of base stations) and reduced SMS traffic (WeChat’s rise has reduced SMS to just 2% of its former value)
- QQ has 808,000,000 accounts, at least some of these are actually business accounts. A Chinese business operating on e-commerce will have a QQ IM account for synchronous communications and file transfers, alongside an email address (which will get checked less frequently) and a phone number
- The search market statistics quoted show user promiscuity in their search habits, partly due to the fact Baidu had taken a more measured approach to mobile search
- The e-commerce numbers fail to show the market dominance of Alibaba with its TaoBao and TMall retail platforms as digital China shops. TaoBao alone has half a billion registered users, the vast majority of which would be in China
- WeChat has some 600M domestic registered users. Again some of these accounts will be corporate accounts, there are many inactive accounts if these numbers are to be believed. Each account will be attached to a mobile phone number
More China related content here.
August 5, 2014
Smartphone value system

Benedict Evans in his post Unbundling innovation: Samsung, PCs and China compared the value system of smartphone industry to the PC industry where value began to be hollowed out and the market became commoditised.

Evans claims that this hollowing out of the value system is already happening to Samsung. Part of the challenge is that so much of the design of the hardware layer in phones comes from reference designs by component manufacturers like Qualcomm and reference design work done by manufacturers like Foxconn. Globalisation outsourced hardware design innovation, a plus side of this is that there is a whole eco-system in southern China that can support anyone who wants to make a branded handset building on experience gained working with major technology brands. The downside that there is little room to add to the value system beyond brand marketing.

As he quite rightly points out some businesses are looking to take control of their business by building beyond hardware and into the service stack to try and move up the value system.

A number of manufacturers put their own UI over Android like HTC’s Sense UI and Huawei’s Emotion UI. Whilst these contributed to a handset personality, they didn’t provide true value system differentiation. Facebook even tried to get in on the act with Facebook Home, but the user experience left something to be desired according to reviewers.

Manufacturers tried to add applications in their phones, which competed with Google’s own application stack. At the present time, no Android manufacturer has come up with a killer application for their brand of phone, mainly because they replicated Google’s efforts and with the exception of Samsung, the application wouldn’t be sufficiently ubiquitous – particularly if it was some sort of communications platform like say Whatsapp.

Meanwhile, Google hasn’t been sitting quietly on the sidelines but has been using its power within the community to exasperate commoditisation by combatting manufacturers efforts at software customisation. This process has been rolled further into the Android efforts with strict guidance on Android Wear devices. All of this may feel quite similar to Microsoft Windows around about the time of their dispute with Netscape.

Deeper innovation requires a fork in the Android OS and a break with some if not all of the services. This break has been forced on Chinese manufacturers anyway as consumers wouldn’t be able to access Google’s maps, email or search. Which is the reason why Xiaomi’s MIUI, Jolla’s Sailfish OS and CyanogenMod have an opportunity to work with phone manufacturers.

However, the ironic aspect of this is that any of these platforms became too successful they would wield as much power as Google does at the moment.

A sweet spot for hardware manufacturers would be a hetreogenuous OS environment, all of which will run Android-compliant applications. In order for this to work, you would need an equivalent of POSIX compliance for Unix-type operating systems for these mobile OS’ and a way of ensuring that platform innovation didn’t ossify either the OS or the internet services supporting it.

Where does Apple fit into all this?

Could the HTC One have been built without manufacturers having invested in milling machines after the introduction of the iPhone 5 aluminium monocoque chassis? Apple’s process innovations / popularisation of production techniques opens up opportunities for the wider Android community. This is because of Apple’s focus on materials innovation as well full integration of the services and software stack.

This lends weight to a viewpoint that Apple has in some respects has become a ‘fashion brand’ as one of my colleagues put it, think a watchmaker rather than say a fashion house like Louis Vuitton and the analogy has a certain amount of merit. This also implies that when thinking about the iPhone the value decision lifts itself out of the economic rational actor. However there are also shifting costs. You don’t buy a DSLR camera, you buy into a system since the camera needs lens in order to work. Applications (particularly paid for applications) play a similar role, as do services. There is an inherent switching cost away from iPhone, this is lower when switching platform from Andrioid to iPhone and practically none existent for many users upgrading their Android handsets.

So in many respects Apple sits apart from this in the same way that the Mac sat within, yet apart from the PC industry.

More information
Unbundling innovation: Samsung, PCs and China
Android and differentiation | renaissance chambara
Messaging’s middleware moment | renaissance chambara
The folly of technology co-marketing budgets | renaissance chambara
HTC One – gsmarena

July 21, 2014
The Idea Factory: Bell Labs and the Great Age of American Innovation by Jon Gertner

The Idea Factory reaches back to an age that is now alien to most of us. At one time the most complex devices that people generally had in their homes were a sewing machine, a piano or a mechanical clock or watch. Yet we now view clothes (particularly those from H&M and Primark) as disposable objects, have a limitless amount of media entertainment available at our finger tips and the complexity of a smartphone in your pocket eclipses the complexity of any device in a home just a few decades previously.

Gertner tracks the rise of the American telephone company AT&T through its research arm Bell Labs. Reading the book, the first thing that strikes you is the immense complexity of the very young telephone networks with its complex mechanical switches, manually operated patch boards and strands of copper telephone lines stringing the country together in a way far more immediate than railway travel.

Out of Bell Labs came a flurry of developments over just a few decades: the vacuum tube

the transistor

the laser

fibre optic networks

the CCD (charged couple device) which is the eye of video and digital cameras

and the cellular networks we now take for granted

What the book fails to answer is the very nature of innovation that Bell Labs was held up for. Is there an ideal structure for innovation? It seems to be the case that ‘it depends’ is the answer; the innovations seemed to come from brilliant individuals, small teams and herculean efforts.

Robert X. Cringely in his book Accidental Empires talked about Silicon Valley really revolving around the efforts and successes of some four dozen people being at the right place and the right time. Gertner’s book implies a similar linkage bringing in a number of names familiar with technology history: Claude Shannon, William Shockley and Charles Kao.

AT&T launched Telstar based on a range of technologies that had been developed over the previous decades at Bell Labs, from solar cells to vacuum tube-based amplifiers. The company had a tight relationship with the Department of Defence due to the amount of work it had done in the early cold war on radar and guidance systems. The satellite was launched aloft on a first generation Delta rocket, US military payloads now travel into space on a fourth generation Delta rocket.

It was also apparent that innovation seems to have its natural time like the Technium of Kevin Kelly’s book What Technology Wants; indeed the history of the Bell Company had much to do with Alexander Bell’s dash to patent an invention that had also been conceived at the same time by another gentleman called Gray.

There is an interesting case study in product development failure with a look at AT&T’s abortive picture phone service from the early 1960s.

In comparison to Bell Labs early history the book moves at break-neck speed through the history of the labs after the break up of AT&T in 1984. A few things that sprung out of this:

Lucent’s rise and decline due to vendor financing of telecoms equipment sales. It is interesting that Huawei arranges for Chinese state banks to put up the financing rather than putting up the money itself; but essentially sells on the same premise that made Lucent successful.

The nature of innovation had fundamentally changed, there was now a core body of work that corporate innovation could draw on without doing the kind of unfettered research that Bell Labs had carried out and facilitated great leaps forward.

If you are at all curious about the why of your smartphone, broadband connection or the underpinnings of the software running your MacBook then The Idea Factory is a recommended read. My one criticism is that the post-break up Bell Labs deserves far more exploration than The Idea Factory gives it. You can find more book reviews here.

July 8, 2014
Carbon nanotubes & other news
Carbon nanotubes

IBM betting carbon nanotubes can restore Moore’s Law by 2020 | ExtremeTech – interesting, IBM research has been at the leading edge of a lot of semiconductor manufacturing techniques including:
- Copper interconnects
- RISC architecture design
- Multi-core design
- Strained silicon substrates
Carbon nanotubes may join particularly as there is so much speculation about the state and future of IBM’s chip business as management moves towards a software and services based future. Is IBM preparing to sell the chip manufacturing business to the highest bidder?

Business

Amazon China chief replaced with another expat | WantChinaTimes – the back story is that Amazon has about 2 per cent of the e-commerce market in China

Design

Waterproof CD player with vocal removal function | AkihabaraNews – interesting thinking about context. Japan is still a big physical media market (they still have Tower Records) and people love to sing in the shower

Economics

HK’s retail sales fell in May | RTHK – its all about valuable gifts: watches, bags etc dropping by 25%

Ideas

The Future of the Workforce May Be Part-Time, Says Google CEO Larry Page | Re/code – utopian spin on zero-hour contracts?

Korea

S Korea to break away from Windows by 2020 | WantChinaTimes – interesting move: Windows 8 partly to blame, I suspect also the security decisions made around Active X made Koreans think twice before attaching themselves to Microsoft

Online

An Online Shift in China Muffles an Open Forum – NYTimes.com – “This is a new phase for social media in China,” said Hu Yong, a journalism professor at Peking University. “It is the decline of the first large-scale forum for information in China and the rise of something more narrowly focused.” – the authors have positioned this as a Chinese -specific move yet it is mirrored in the west with the rise of Whatsapp, Telegram and other OTT messenger services

Google bans porn from its ad network | CNBC – Google obviously doesn’t need the revenue, which bodes well for ongoing quarterly number going forwards

UK’s Porn Filter Triggers Widespread Internet Censorship | TorrentFreak – The results of ORG’s new tool show that what started as a “porn filter” has turned into something much bigger. Under the guise of “protecting the children” tens of thousands of sites are now caught up in overbroad filters, which is a worrying development to say the least – interesting that some are blocking the Open Rights Group and open source software sites

Thanks To “Right To Be Forgotten,” Google Now Censors The Press In The EU | Marketingland – once you take the 1st amendment driven angst viewpoint out of this, its a great summary of things by Danny Sullivan

Tencent Opening Up API for Wechat Login — China Internet Watch – expect WeChat’s app constellation to mushroom outside the Tencent family. More on WeChat here.

Security

3 Real Security Risks Threatening Your Smart TV Entertainment | Make Use Of – make mine a dumb TV

Technology

CHART OF THE DAY: Apple Is Invading The Enterprise – Business Insider – there is also a credibility issue, go to a developer conference and there is a sea of silver lids, this will knock on into the enterprise

Telecoms

I, Cringely The Secret of Google X – I, Cringely – I think untethered balloons aren’t a smart move either
July 7, 2014
Inhibitors and other news

Inhibitors

WPP CEO Sorrell Says Regional Offices Can Be ‘Inhibitors’ | Advertising Age – interesting tension happening here; part of the reason for the inhibitors that there isn’t a power to yes is because the power structures aren’t designed right. A second inhibitor issue is also that the centre is all asking for the wrong things. Often HQ has the power to say no; not the power to say yes where they haven’t come up with the idea. All of these inhibitors means that agency side pan-regional roles will be under threat. More related content here.

Business

Top 10 Strategic Technology Trends in China — China Internet Watch – interesting bits particularly around changing business models

Consumer behaviour

In Europe, knowing your neighbor doesn’t necessarily make you happier – Quartz – interesting consumer data, that asks questions about what community actually means

Growing Up Grows Up | CEB Insights – more democratic collaborative households

Culture

leet speak (FBI) | Muckrock – I love this FBI guide to online acronyms

Finance

How to manage all your financial affairs from a $20 mobile phone | Quartz – another article on MPesa

FMCG

Colgate is betting that you care as much about your pet’s mouth as your kid’s | Quartz – interesting trend

Health

No more fillings as dentists reveal new tooth decay treatment | theguardian.com – sounds really simple but is cool idea

Hong Kong

WATCH: Hong Kong ad depicts domestic worker in ‘blackface’: Shanghaiist – interesting how social media is lengthening this story

Luxury

Global Textile Trends Round-Up: The Implications of Fabric Innovation – Nanotechnology – interesting article by Euromonitor

Marketing

The A to Z of mobile marketing: 26 trends to inspire you | Econsultancy – I find the idea of heavy pages horrifying

Should Brands get Involved in Political Issues? – Euromonitor International – interesting that this is coming out of marketing rather than CSR

Media

Financial Times Testing Time-Spent Ads – Business Insider – interesting move. Will engagement on a page mean that one is more likely to click on ads below the fold or will content just be ignored, would need more detail on click through rates or even conversion rates if possible

As Weather Channel Blows Yahoo Off Apple’s Upcoming iOS 8, App Storms Ahead for Mayer | Re/code – adds a stick to beat management team with, needs to be careful about stocks default app

Online

Are links dead for Yandex? | Econsultancy – interesting article on Yandex SEO

Indian chat app Hike adds private mode and 100MB file sending, as it hits 20m users – looks like a me too product

Retailing

UK shoppers are turning German when they walk into a supermarket | Quartz – Aldi finally getting some respect. I would go there if there was a branch close to where I lived

Security

Nokia ‘paid millions to software blackmailers six years ago’ | Reuters – Finnish telecoms equipment company Nokia paid several million euros to criminals who threatened to reveal the source code for part of an operating system used in its smartphones some six years ago – did this make the move away from Symbian even more attractive?

BlackBerry Launches BBM Protected For Confidential Instant Messaging | TechCrunch – does this mean normal BBM will become less secure?

Software

AnandTech | Manual Camera Controls in iOS 8 – offers interesting application opportunities. How long before we see a Contax camera app for example?

Technology

Qualcomm for ARM? Intel for MediaTek? Pondering Chip M&A – Barrons.com – interesting discussion on tax inversion

HP Machine: Memristor pioneer explains his discovery- The Inquirer – this looks like a really interesting discovery by HP

Telecoms

Nokia ‘paid millions to software blackmailers six years ago’ | Reuters – Finnish telecoms equipment company Nokia paid several million euros to criminals who threatened to reveal the source code for part of an operating system used in its smartphones some six years ago – did this make the move away from Symbian even more attractive?

EU, South Korea to Ally on Faster Mobile Access – WSJ – it is a smart move. Impressive that Huawei is investing 600 million dollars through 2018 on next-generation networks.

Web of no web

Blippar buys augmented reality firm Layar – interesting consolidation

Wireless

EU, South Korea to Ally on Faster Mobile Access – WSJ – it is a smart move. Impressive that Huawei is investing 600 million dollars through 2018 on next-generation networks

Chinese gov’t reveals Microsoft’s secret list of Android-killer patents | Ars Technica – interesting document which gives a fuller idea of Microsoft’s portfolio. admittedly much of it couldn’t be used against many Rockstar members like Sony and Apple – and some of them could be used in a wider attack on Google services

Here’s Why Amazon Is Actually Smart To Make Its Smartphone Expensive (AMZN) | BusinessInsider – interesting analysis of Amazon’s Fire phone

Bihar’s largest radio station is not a radio station at all | Quartz – Hindustan Unilever uses mobile airtime to broadcast 15 minute radio segments to consumers

Qualcomm for ARM? Intel for MediaTek? Pondering Chip M&A – Barrons.com – interesting discussion on tax inversion

June 22, 2014