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  • Technopolarity

    Ian Bremmer at the Eurasia Group has been talking about Technopolarity throughout 2022 and has amped up the discussion in recent months.

    Bremmer’s hypothesis is that big technology companies and their leaders will create power structures that will challenge the powers of governments. I was reminded of the different ‘country franchises’ that populated the future America of Neal Stephenson’s novel Snow Crash. Snow Crash envisaged a Randesque libertarian hellscape with no power centre.

    The biggest technology firms are designing, building, and managing an entirely new dimension of geopolitics. In this new digital space, their influence runs deep, down to the level of individual lines of code. They’re writing the algorithms that decide what people see and hear, determine their economic and social opportunities, and ultimately influence what they think. Individuals will spend more time in digital space in 2022, at work and at home. Much of this time will be spent in the “metaverse”—an emerging, more immersive version of the web where all the problems of digital governance will be magnified. The metaverse (or more accurately, multiple metaverses) in turn will increasingly rely on economic systems based on decentralized blockchain platforms that governments are already struggling to control.

    Bremmer, I., Kupchan, C. (January 3, 2022) Risk 2: Technopolar World. United States: Eurasia Group.

    Aside from the power of the metaverse, Bremmer & Kupchan largely got things right. The Eurasia Group positioned technology giants along three axes. The degree to which the companies matched the following archetypes:

    • National champions.
    • Globalists.
    • Techno-utopians.

    In general, Chinese companies were national champions, while their American counterparts were predominantly globalists. The European Union has attempted and largely failed to bring a degree of control, curbing the excesses of technology companies.

    China has cracked down on companies that it felt was too big. The digital space itself has a Randian view of global leadership, ignoring the consequences and the responsibility of their power.

    Algorithms as destiny

    Bremmer’s initial thinking on technopolarity was focused on the role of algorithms underpinning online services. More recently, he has focused beyond platforms to look at the nature of ‘artificial intelligence’ and its ability to upend geopolitics.

    Emotional contagion

    As far back as 2012, Facebook had conducted a study in ’emotional contagion’ by altering the news feeds for 700,000 users and it was all completely legal. The feeds were changed to reflect more positive, or negative content – to see if seeing more sad messages makes a person sadder. The experimental subjects were not given any warning and their emotional state was by analysing changes in their language on the platform.

    And I am not even pointing out the effect that social media can have on its audiences in general without experimentation.

    Elon Musk’s Technopolarity

    Walter Isaacson’s biography of Elon Musk; brought the concept of Technopolarity to life. In the book Isaacson discusses decisions and actions that Musk made over the Ukraine war. Musk because of his personal concern about Russian escalation, disabled the Starlink service covering occupied Ukrainian territory to disrupt Ukraine’s military efforts including marine drones. So Elon Musk essentially made a decision that directly affected US defence efforts to support Ukraine. It could have even resulted in the destruction of American military equipment donated to the defence of Ukraine.

    Musk has had conversations with Vladimir Putin like he was a head of state and even the US government has been careful about how they deal with him.

    “Even though Musk is not technically a diplomat or statesman, I felt it was important to treat him as such, given the influence he had on this issue”

    Colin Kahl, former under-secretary of defense for policy at the Pentagon
    Starlink

    Kahl’s attitude to Musk is at odds to the fate of former Qwest CEO Joe Nacchio who went to jail after he was found to be a barrier to the NSA’s domestic surveillance plans, in particular the MAINWAY database. Nacchio was convicted of insider trading. Nacho’s successor also held outing after 4 years, discussions with the NSA went nowhere. A quick trawl of Twitter history would be enough to find evidence to put Musk on trial should the US government wish to do so. What’s happened to government power in the decades since Nacchio went to jail?

    The New Yorker went on to describe Elon Musk’s power as ‘shadow rule‘. Musk isn’t elected. He isn’t even responsive to his shareholders. His Twitter account is a testament to his mercurial nature.

    What’s more concerning for US government wonks is that Musk’s Tesla mega factory in Shanghai leaves him exposed to manipulation by the Chinese government. For instance, they could pressure him to turn off Starlink across the Pacific adversely affecting Taiwan, Japan, Australia and US forces in the region. The Ukrainian experience suggests that Musk would not hesitate to put American lives on the line, or see Taiwan handed over the horrific barbarity of Chinese invasion.

    More related content here.

  • Tiny Habits

    Tiny Habits is an accessible book by behaviour change expert and academic BJ Fogg. Unlike like his first work Persuasive Technology, Fogg’s Tiny Habits is an easier read for the everyman.

    About BJ Fogg

    I was introduced to the work of BJ Fogg by my colleague Ray Short, who had gone on one of his courses in behaviour change for healthcare that he had run in the US. Fogg is a social scientist who started his research career focusing on ‘Captology’ – short hand for computers as persuasive technology. His courses on captology launched the careers of many of the most successful software product managers and UX designers – including a co-founder of Instagram.

    If you dislike ‘swipe right’, you can blame Fogg and his book Persuasive Technology. Fogg’s interests changed to focus on human behaviour change in general. Research at Stanford looks at how behaviour change can help climate change, health, mental health and reducing screen time.

    Tiny Habits

    Tiny Habits explains BJ Fogg’s lens for designing behaviour change. Rather than thinking about bias’ and how to counteract them, Fogg takes a different approach.

    He focuses on small, concrete change. The change is based on three elements:

    • Motivation
    • Ability
    • Prompt

    He captures this in a formula

    B (behaviour) = MAP

    Motivation is contextual and varies in intensity, so can’t be necessarily relied upon

    Having a ‘tiny habit change’ reduces the required ability required. In the same way that a project manager would break a project down into much simpler customer elements

    Prompt is about timing the change into an existing habit. For example having your multi-vitamins in your bathroom cabinet, to reduce the difficulty of taking the tablet. And then taking the tablet each day after brushing your teeth in the morning.

    Tiny Habits breaks this process down so that customers and marketers can apply the process, and, also teach it to family members, colleagues or customers. In this respect, it’s much easier to manage than a counter-bias based approach.

    I could see this being particularly powerful wen combined with Phil Graves AFECT consumer research approach:

    A – Analysis of behavioural data. Does the research look at consumer behaviour or not? If it doesn’t look at some aspect of consumer behaviour, it isn’t valuable.
    F – Where the consumers in the right frame of mind? Where they observed whilst in a retail experience, making a purchase?
    E – Environment. What is the context of the content. Research that isn’t observational / behavioural in nature should at least be done where retail decisions happen. Environment is bound together with frame of mind. 
    C – Covert study. Being aware of being observed affects behaviour. Think about the use of close circuit TV and fisheye mirrors to try and prevent casual shoplifting. 
    T – Timeframe. Did the timeframe of the study match the timeframe that consumers would typically use themselves?

    More on Tiny Habits here; and more book reviews here.

  • Climate despair

    I started thinking about climate despair last month as I was researching my post on psychotherapy + culture.

    Depth of climate despair

    The driver was a research report that appeared in The Lancet in December 2021. Researchers surveyed 10,000 respondents aged between 16 – 25, in ten countries across the Asia Pacific region, North and South America, Europe and Africa. The respondents were drawn from Kantar’s LifePoints online research panel. Of those who started the survey less than 70 percent completed it. The gender split was slightly overweight towards males: 51·4% male, 48·6% female.

    The survey was developed by 11 international consultants with expertise in climate change emotions, clinical and environmental psychology, psychotherapy, psychiatry, human rights law, child and adolescent mental health, and young people with lived experience of climate anxiety. Which means that there was an incentive to come out with the findings they received and that may have biased the results. But the indications are clear in terms of direction around climate despair.

    Key datapoints supporting the sense of climate despair amongst respondents:

    • Survey respondents across all countries were worried about climate change (59% were very or extremely worried and 84% were at least moderately worried)
    • Over half of those surveyed reported each of the following emotions: sad, anxious, angry, powerless, helpless or guilty
    • 75% of those surveyed said that they think the future is frightening
    "C̶l̶i̶m̶a̶t̶e̶ ̶C̶h̶a̶n̶g̶e̶  We Change"
    Derek Read – “C̶l̶i̶m̶a̶t̶e̶ ̶C̶h̶a̶n̶g̶e̶ We Change”

    The report says:

    Distress about climate change is associated with young people perceiving that they have no future, that humanity is doomed, and that governments are failing to respond adequately, and with feelings of betrayal and abandonment by governments and adults. Climate change and government inaction are chronic stressors that could have considerable, long-lasting, and incremental negative implications for the mental health of children and young people.

    Hickman, C.,Marks, E., Pihkala, P., Clayton, S., Lewandowski, R.E. & Mayall, E.E. (December 2021) Climate anxiety in children and young people and their beliefs about government responses to climate change: a global survey. (UK) The Lancet Planetary Health

    The article then goes on to hold governments accountable for a moral harm on the young people. However, a good deal of the moral harm is also due to the way companies and NGOs actually talk about climate change.

    Anecdotal evidence from therapists interviewed by the New York Times suggests that climate despair tends to be more prevalent in young female patients that they see. However, this might be down to a young men being less likely to see a therapist than a young woman.

    Positive reinforcement

    This video from WARC features research why it is ineffective to play into the constant environment doom loop if we want action. A change in approach should start to combat the deeply entrenched feeling of climate despair.

    WARC highlighted research that positive environmental images motivate people to take action. The research paper in the Journal of Advertising Research is Are consumers moved by a crying tree or a smiling forest? Effects of anthropomorphic valence and cause acuteness in green advertising written by three Taiwanese researchers based on a number of studies, each with 35 – 50 participants.

    Research key findings

    The paper had four key findings:

    • When the environmental issue is considered a sudden disaster, negative anthropomorphism is more persuasive. 
    • By contrast, when the environmental issue is viewed as an ongoing tragedy, positive anthropomorphism results in a more favourable attitude, higher willingness to pay, and more money being donated. 
    • Consumers’ connectedness to nature serves as the underlying mechanism in this messaging. If this level of connectedness to nature is low, nonprofit organizations and companies must alter these perceptions by choosing a more appropriate anthropomorphic valence and cause acuteness in their green advertising.

    All of which seems to point to a possible challenge amongst both NGOs and companies over their inability to discern the difference between important and the most urgent elements. If collectively they can’t understand the categorisation, it’s no wonder that a significant minority of their audience slips into climate despair and is discouraged from taking a more active role.

    Secondly, working on consumer’s connectedness to nature is a major communications JTBD (job to be done).

  • Tampopo

    I first got to see Tampopo at the 051 Cinema in Liverpool. It was a comedy, it had new wave vibes and I knew I could watch it several more times without getting bored. When I went to college a lecturer screened clips of it to emphasise the importance of observation as a market research tool – a lesson that has stuck with me to this day. Decades later I get Tampopo on Blu-Ray via Criterion Collection re-issue.

    Tampopo

    The print is way richer and better than what I saw a few times in Liverpool and it still holds my interest.

    Ramen western?

    Before we get into the film I want dispel the idea of the ramen western. Every magazine review you see of Tampopo will use the term ‘ramen western’ which was apparently coined by publicists during its international release. It’s a lazy phrase in the case of Tampopo for a number of reasons.

    Yes, one of the protagonists has some clothing that might evoke the image of a cowboy, but that’s like writing the entire film from a few curated still images. The clothing is more about evoking the rugged individuality of a truck driver, in a largely conformist society. Their neckerchief is more about lorry cabs having no air conditioning at the time.

    The best spaghetti westerns like A Fist Full of Dollars actually were adaptions of Japanese films. In the case of A Fist Full of Dollars, it’s the retelling in western setting of the Akira Kurosawa film Yojimbo. So the Ramen Western reference is basically saying ‘it’s a Japanese interpretation set around a neighbourhood restaurant of an Italian plagarisation of a Japanese chambara film classic’.

    The reality is that Tampopo is more complex than the simplistic ramen western label would have you believe.

    Juzo Itami

    Director Juzo Itami was an auteur: actor, script writer and director. Tampopo was his second feature film and he would eventually direct eight more. Itami’s later films courted controversy with him being attacked by Yakuza members. His eventual suicide is widely believed to have been staged by members of the Goto-gumi to prevent a film that discussed the gang’s links with the Soka Gakkai buddhist movement.

    Back to Tampopo

    Tampopo revolves around food as art and food is also the MacGuffin for the film. In the main story, a widow is struggling to manage her ramen shop following the death of her husband the cook and shop owner.

    A jobbing truck driver and drivers mate stop to eat and get sucked into a quest. The widow who is named Tampopo (Dandelion), the truck driver and driver’s mate to make great ramen and rejuvenate the fortunes of the shop.

    So if Tampopo isn’t a ramen western, what is it?

    The simple answer would be an action comedy revolving around a ramen shop and the art of cooking. But there is so much more in the film.

    There is a second story about ‘the man in white’ which has heavy overtones of French new wave cinema and features a basket of European food fit for a decadent picnic. The fourth wall is broken and one of the characters speaks directly to the audience, adding an additional layer of complexity. We are both audience and (minor) character. Over new wave vignettes in the film include:

    • Salarymen having a meal at a French restaurant 
    • A women’s etiquette class on how to eat spaghetti silently in the European manner
    • Supermarket staff stopping an older woman with a compulsion to squeeze food
    • A con man uses an elaborate meal to lure a mark into an scam
    • A woman breast feeds her infant

    Torakku Yarō

    There are references due to the plot structure to the idea of the ronin – the unattached samurai helping out common people in the plot structure. But just as important the film references Japanese culture around that time. There is a clear parallel between Tampopo and a series of trucking related comedy films that were made from 1974 – 1979. Torakku Yarō (トラック野郎) roughly translates as Truck Guys or Truck Rascals. It is a series of ten films made over a four year period to cater for the popularity of the genre.

    The plots were standardised.

    1. Truck driver falls in love with woman he meets on the road.
    2. Truck driver through his actions actually helps her fall in love with another man.
    3. Truck driver ends up going on a quest to help reunite the star-crossed lovers under some sort of time restriction.

    In this case cooking ramen is substituted for the ‘other man’. The connections don’t stop at the plot structure, one of the main characters Pisken is played by Japanese Italian actor Rikiya Yasuoka – who appeared in the first instalment of the Torakku Yarō series.

    Torakku Yarō itself was based on an earlier series of comedies called Otoko wa Tsurai yo (男はつらいよ): translated as It’s tough being a man. 48 films were made in this series from 1969 to 1995 based around the same formula.

    1. Tora-san falls in love with a woman
    2. Tora-san argues with his extended family
    3. Tora-san’s love of the woman is not reciprocated and he leaves heart-broken

    While the humour may not fully come out from Tompopo, it’s a visual tour-de-force with great acting and a distinctive vision behind the film. I look forward to rewatching it again in the future.

    More film reviews here.

  • Suncity + more stuff

    Suncity

    If you’re of a certain age, you might think that Suncity is related to Sun City in South Africa. Both are in the gambling resort businesses but I don’t think that either are connected. Sun City is part of a pan-African hotel and resort group headquartered in South Africa.

    You might even remember remember the Artists against Apartheid song.

    Suncity was associated with gambling junkets to Macau. The company is associated with Alvin Chau. Prior being sentenced to prison for 18 years, Chau was known as a philandering casino tycoon with a Malaysian-American mistress Mandy Lieu (劉碧麗).

    Suncity Holdings was a Hong Kong listed investment company with:

    • Resort business in the Philippines
    • Hotels and gaming businesses in Russia
    • Consultancy for running hotels and resorts
    • Travel Agency and air chartering services
    • Property development
    • Shopping mall management

    After Chau’s arrest, Suncity cut ties and shut down gambling rooms associated with Chau. Suncity then changed its name to LET.

    The FT alleges that Suncity is also connected with online sports gambling, with services aimed at mainland Chinese. This is illegal in China.

    The most shocking part of the FT’s video is The Gaming Commission (TGC) admitting that they didn’t want to disclose information as it would undermine trust in the ability of TGC to do its due diligence properly.

    Beauty

    Luxury Daily | Richemont launches in-house luxury beauty division 

    China

    Australia’s daigou days done? | WARC – tightening regulatory standards and alternative employment are cited as two key factors by Asia News Network. I would also add increased national pride gau chao has changed the game for Chinese domestic brands

    China Is Full of Risk For U.S. Companies – The New York Times – I consider it more analogous to a sunk cost fallacy

    FMCG

    PZ Cussons/Nigeria: delisting local unit suggests little faith in recovery | Financial Times

    How to

    PlainScribe – better transcription from audio or video files

    These 38 Reading Rules Changed My Life – RyanHoliday.net

    Luxury

    How Coach is using “expressive” luxury to connect with Gen Z | WARC – Heritage brands find themselves at a crossroads between preserving their historical roots and resonating with younger demographics. Tapping into influencer partnerships and cause-related initiatives are two ways to strengthen consumer engagement while simultaneously retaining a brand’s established culture.

    Can Tokyo Fashion Week get back on track? | Vogue Business – The Japanese event is rebuilding momentum and simmering with fresh and unique talent, but hopes for international success are hobbled by insularity and pandemic lockdown aftereffects

    S.Koreans spend on luxury rather than futureーNHK WORLD-JAPAN NEWS

    Marketing

    From Mad Men to machines? Big advertisers shift to AI | Reuters 

    Materials

    Hyundai N: Drive in Style and Power With Carbon Fiber Wheels From Dymag | Carbon Fiber Gear – carbon fibre rims bonded to magnesium alloy centrepiece

    Great manufacturing video showing 100% sports sunglasses being made. Interesting that they choose not to manufacture in China. 100% came out of the motocross scene in the US, back in the 1980s.

    Media

    REmade Retail Media News: Collaboration and margin salvation – retail media will boost margins more than AI

    Pearl TV Responds to Critics of 3.0 Encryption | TV Tech 

    Online

    AI Image Company Rebrands After 404 Media Investigation | 404 Media 

    Meta axes support for news in Europe | Financial Times 

    Social Media Decline: Ending for Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, TikTok | Business Insider – decline is a bit strong, more like behaviour has normed

    Retailing

    How dollar stores (especially Dollar General) have quietly conquered America. The documentary talks about how they’ve reduced their base costs and can work in sparse or very low income communities. If nothing else, this reminds of you of the scale in America’s mid-West.

    Security

    UK pulls back from clash with Big Tech over private messaging | Financial Times