Ged Carroll

Category: consumer behaviour | 消費者行為 | 소비자 행동

Consumer behaviour is central to my role as an account planner and about how I look at the world.

Being from an Irish household growing up in the North West of England, everything was alien. I felt that I was interloping observer who was eternally curious.

The same traits stand today, I just get paid for them. Consumer behaviour and its interactions with the environment and societal structures are fascinating to me.

The hive mind of Wikipedia defines it as

‘the study of individuals, groups, or organizations and all the activities associated with the purchase, use and disposal of goods and services.’

It is considered to consist of how the consumer’s emotions, attitudes and preferences affect buying behaviour. Consumer behaviour emerged in the 1940–1950s as a distinct sub-discipline of marketing, but has become an interdisciplinary social science that blends elements from psychology, sociology, social anthropology, anthropology, ethnography, marketing and economics (especially behavioural economics or nudge theory as its often known).

I tend to store a mix of third party insights and links to research papers here. If you were to read one thing on this blog about consumer behaviour, I would recommend this post I wrote on generations. This points out different ways that consumer behaviour can be misattributed, missed or misinterpreted.

Often the devil is in the context, which goes back to the wide ranging nature of this blog hinted at by the ‘renaissance’ in renaissance chambara. Back then I knew that I needed to have wide interests but hadn’t worked on defining the ‘why’ of having spread such a wide net in terms of subject matter.

  • Consumer interest in iOS etc.

    If you’re like me you read far more journalist analysis of the wireless phone market than is good for you. I thought that it would be instructive to have a look at what consumers are looking for instead and look for any patterns. After sales availability and visibility consumer interest is probably the biggest determinator of success. My weapon of choice was Google Insights for Search. My research was based on a few assumptions about consumer interest in the wireless space and some limitations in the tool that I was using:

    • Consumers know what type of smartphone that they want
    • Consumers decisions aren’t carrier loyal
    • Consumers used Roman script to search for the brand
    • Search is a good proxy for consumer interest – it hasn’t been disrupted by Facebook in this regard yet despite what others may tell you
    • China despite being the world’s largest market isn’t going to be providing meaningful data because Google Insights for Search doesn’t cover that market
    • The Russia sample is indicative of overall consumer sentiment in Russia (Yandex is a big search player in Russia)

    Consumer Interest in platforms
    Some of the biggest interest in handset brands is in the developing world. In many respects this is their PC revolution. In developed Asian markets like Hong Kong and Singapore there is a much higher interest than EU countries – partly because of on-the-go lifestyles and partly because of the economic cataclysm that the western world is facing. The iPhone still attracts the most interest, but what is interesting is the acceleration that Android seems to have in terms of increasing interest. Microsoft’s efforts, whilst lauded by critics haven’t yet turned into consumer interest.  Research In Motion’s Blackberry platform seems to be down but not out yet in the consumer stakes.

    Nokia

    I took a snapshot of consumer interest in Nokia over the past three months to try and see what effect the global launch campaign for Nokia’s Windows phones are doing to consumer interest in the brand.

    I deliberately didn’t compare them to the iPhone because Nokia themselves acknowledge that they are competing against Android handset makers like HTC and Samsung. Nokia launched the Lumia phones with their biggest marketing campaign ever and had a lot of column inches written about the brand alongside a gamut of marketing commnications tactics from experiential events and advertising to point of purchase.


    Whilst Nokia’s new range of Lumia phones have had a substantial marketing budget put in place, but it doesn’t seem to have significantly affected search interest: it’s not quite living up the Amazing Everyday billing yet. This is also the case for Windows Phone with interest remaining consistently low in comparison to the Nokia brand. I think that the stubborn consumer disinterest in Windows Phone is a big challenge.

    More wireless related content can be found here.

  • iPhone pragmatism

    Despite working as a digital strategist and creative thinker (whatever the hell that means) agencyside, I have a very pragmatic relationship with technology both past and present from the iPhone to my original Mac. I have had Macs since 1989, primarily because they were the closest thing I found to a computer that just worked.

    I had analogue mobile phones from my time DJing and having friends who worked in cell phone service centres. My first phone that I had to buy was digital, the mobile phone was a Motorola; mainly because One2One (now Everything Everywhere) sold a package where you paid just over 100 pounds and had a phone for 12 months, with a small amount of inbuilt local call time. At the time I used it as a more reliable version of my pager. Even back then SMS proved to be more reliable than the pager that I had used previously

    I went from Motorola to Ericsson, mostly because Ericsson handsets were really well made and then moved to Nokia when Ericsson merged its handset business with Sony. I moved from Nokia to the Apple iPhone and a Samsung feature phone for two reasons:

    • Apple had an address book that worked. My address book didn’t brick the phone. I haven’t had that bad problems with data corruption and it syncs with my computer. It has all the productivity applications I enjoyed on my Nokia phones like MetrO and QuickOffice. The iPhone also has major flaws. For instance, the browser isn’t great, but I put up with it because I can sync my bookmarks for it across from the Safari browser on my Mac. The biggest think that I miss was the Nokia keyboard and laptop layout on the Nokia E90 Communicator
    • My Samsung phone could take two SIMs which is a boon for traveling. This is something that most phone manufacturers don’t provide for markets outside the developing world

    My iPhone was also expensive, like the price of a cheap laptop kind of expensive, which means that I look at it in a different way to previous smartphones. Instead of getting rid of my phone every 18 months, I am thinking closer to three years, just like my laptop.  An additional factor  is that whilst the first iPhones were a radical leap forward,  the iPhone 4 and 4S don’t have sufficient must-have value for me to move on until my current phone dies or the next iteration of the iPhone comes out.

    Now I wouldn’t say that I am an everyman for the iPhone using population; but this has to have some effect on sales. For every iPad that Apple sells there maybe at least a few iPhone upgrades put on hold as an opportunity cost.

  • Gucci + more news

    Gucci

    Shenzhen sweatshop allegations force Gucci to act – FT.com – PR nightmare and management FAIL for Gucci. The Gucci story is unusual in that it affects service workers. Luxury in Asia requires a certain servility of service that I find uncomfortable and the Gucci story of long oppressive days for retail staff sounds emblematic of it. That its happening in the Gucci Shenzhen store doesn’t surprise me at all

    China

    China Favors Direct Investment to Create ‘New Blood’ in Europe – WSJ

    Maersk builds LatAm “reefer” factory | FT.com – because the cost of production is growing faster in China than Latin America

    Consumer behaviour

    What Wealthy Women Really Want – WSJ

    For Their Children, Many E-Book Fans Insist on Paper – NYTimes.com – the tactile arguments for toddlers are the same reason why I prefer print books

    Culture

    Alan Moore – meet the man behind the protest mask | The Observer – it was a nice literary tail for the Guardian to loop back with Alan Moore

    Paris Review – The Art of Fiction No. 211, William Gibson – interview with the cyber punk don

    Economics

    Housing prices fall in Chinese cities – FT.com – property developers and small businesses have been suffering

    Brussels warns on risk of UK double-dip – FT.com – UK economy stagnating and government’s deficit reduction strategy isn’t working according to a European Commission report – a deep and prolonged recession complemented by continued market turmoil cannot be excluded

    The way (not) to rein in the yen – FT.com – A more aggressive quantitative easing programme, targeting 10-year government bonds instead of shorter maturities, would contribute more decisively to ease the pressure on the exchange rate. More importantly, it would also stimulate the largely stagnant domestic economy (paywall)

    The Long Haul to Capitalizing on Web Trends – Digits – WSJ – According to comScore Inc., almost 62% of the ads shown on Facebook in the July through September quarter came from advertisers that are not among the top 1000 digital advertisers in the U.S.; on Yahoo Inc., just 23% come from such small advertisers. These sorts of Facebook advertisers range from nail salons marketing to people who live a particular town, to recruiters targeting employees at a specific company – going down the long tail due to targeting ability, not great on context like Google local search though

    Ideas

    Information: Be careful what you signal | The Economist

    Possibility Is Thrust of 100-Year Starship Study – NYTimes.com – in 10,000 years, the speed of humans has jumped by a factor of about 10,000, from a stroll (2.6 m.p.h.) to the Apollo astronauts’ return from the Moon (26,000 m.p.h.). Reaching the nearest stars in reasonable time — decades, not centuries — would require a velocity jump of another factor of 10,000

    Innovation

    Marubeni Launches 3D Printing Service — Tech-On! – interesting that it is aimed at making precision resin dies etc

    Japan

    Japan’s #1 Mascots: Kumamon, Bary-san, and Nishiko-kun | Japan Probe – Japan seems to have mascots for everything, kind of cool actually

    Japan Today | Toshiba to close three semiconductor plants

    Korea

    South Korea’s economy: What do you do when you reach the top? | The Economist – interesting economic profile on Korea

    Luxury

    Von Furstenberg to Chinese Women: Stop Chasing Men – WSJ

    The rise of quiet luxury: Understated chic that is very, very expensive. – Slate Magazine

    China’s Menswear Market (Quietly) Booming « Jing Daily

    Luxury’s anti-social (media) brigade | FT.com – variable adoption

    Brussels finally recognises luxury | FT.com

    Luxury Second-Hand Shops Spreading Like Wildfire In China | Jing Daily

    The moral of Dior’s numbers | FT.com – Galliano story didn’t affect Dior sales

    Media

    Secret documents reveal the flimsy case for Ofcom to give into BBC’s public TV DRM demands – Boing Boing

    Technology

    HP CEO: Apple will become market leader in personal computers | MacNews

    Wireless

    Nokia’s Microsoft Phones May Not Get Traction, Analyst Says – NYTimes.com – no USP, apart from a bucketload of advertising

  • CIC on China’s luxury market

    CIC who provide the IWOM set of reports and flakey tools (think Sysomos, Radian6 or Adobe SocialAnalytics for the mainland Chinese internet eco-system) have come up with an interesting report on online conversations around the Chinese luxury market. CIC is increasingly being integrated with GroupM. It will be interesting to see how CIC copes as China exerts increasing control over social and marketing data access.

    Key take-outs

    • They are motivated to buy luxury goods as a way to ‘show-off’ and most of the online conversations are around this subject. Status itself is a tool designed to engender trust in things like business interactions rather than self actualisation per se
    • The distribution system is complex with overseas purchasing and purchasing agents (presumably to avoid China’s luxury goods tax and for more choice) also a popular subject. For luxury brands it means that Chinese expansion needs to be tapped by also having presence in places like Hong Kong, Japan, Korea, Paris – France and the major cities of the US
    • Real-time reporting of runway shows initiated by the brands doing webcasts has been extended by netizens to their own platforms. Much of the commentary is similar to the social television interactions you used to see on early video platform Joost; and on Twitter during shows like The Apprentice or The Only Way is Essex (TOWIE)
    • Counterfeit – there was a significant group that own both counterfeit and authentic versions of a product because it is ‘interesting to mix and match usage between real and fake’. This is a really interesting brand interaction and raises the question: what if authentic isn’t authentic enough in terms of brand experience? This is something that I could see impacting the likes of Louis Vuitton. Gucci, Chanel and Hermes as they become over-exposed in the marketplace. One of the ways to approach this is to educate consumers on what luxury means: craftsmanship, heritage or being at the forefront of something (which may mean an intersection between streetwear and luxury)

    More related content here. More from CIC here.

  • Dealer chic

    If the working class and the lower middle class are worried about financial security with trends like extreme couponing; the upper-middle classes are also interested in the thrill of a good deal with the changing economic environment a distant secondary motivator. With this in mind Trendwatching talked about dealer chic; reading their profile its almost as if they are thinking about their lifestyle in business terms. Looking for:

    • Increased efficiency – getting more for less – the buzz of a bargain
    • Value add – provided primarily through an improved experience

    Dealer chic is supposed to be caused by a move towards perfect markets – the use of reviews and comparative pricing facilitated by the web parallels the kind of techniques that procurement professionals would use. It also echoes the promise of disintermediation that web 1.0 was supposed to bring use with the first generation of shopping comparison sites in the late 1990s

    A more worrying by-product of the dealer chic trend is that brands are increasingly commoditised and access to mobile devices have accelerated the consumer buying process by providing them with the necessary research and the opportunity for instant gratification – potentially having a micro-chunking time effect on the timings and tweaking of pricing strategies.

    It means that luxury goods are seen as an asset class. This will mean an acceleration in price appreciation, but in order for luxury brands to benefit they will need to get involved in running pre-owned platforms. They can add value in validating each and every item, for a commission. 

    The space won’t be uncontested. You have established players from eBay and Yahoo! Auctions to Japanese retail brands like Brand-Off are already in this space. The Japanese have built up a formidable opportunity

    More information

    Trendwatching | dealer chic – find out more about dealer chic and sign up for Trendwatching’s free email newsletters