Ged Carroll

Category: consumer behaviour | 消費者行為 | 소비자 행동

Consumer behaviour is central to my role as an account planner and about how I look at the world.

Being from an Irish household growing up in the North West of England, everything was alien. I felt that I was interloping observer who was eternally curious.

The same traits stand today, I just get paid for them. Consumer behaviour and its interactions with the environment and societal structures are fascinating to me.

The hive mind of Wikipedia defines it as

‘the study of individuals, groups, or organizations and all the activities associated with the purchase, use and disposal of goods and services.’

It is considered to consist of how the consumer’s emotions, attitudes and preferences affect buying behaviour. Consumer behaviour emerged in the 1940–1950s as a distinct sub-discipline of marketing, but has become an interdisciplinary social science that blends elements from psychology, sociology, social anthropology, anthropology, ethnography, marketing and economics (especially behavioural economics or nudge theory as its often known).

I tend to store a mix of third party insights and links to research papers here. If you were to read one thing on this blog about consumer behaviour, I would recommend this post I wrote on generations. This points out different ways that consumer behaviour can be misattributed, missed or misinterpreted.

Often the devil is in the context, which goes back to the wide ranging nature of this blog hinted at by the ‘renaissance’ in renaissance chambara. Back then I knew that I needed to have wide interests but hadn’t worked on defining the ‘why’ of having spread such a wide net in terms of subject matter.

  • Smooth jazz & things that made last week

    I tried to keep the crazy in the week under control listening to smooth jazz. However the week has been just as insane as last week. Huawei’s Meng Wanzhou is out on bail, but Donald Trump cast a shadow on the whole process by a saying that he was quite prepared to use her freedom as a pawn in his trade dispute with China. Telling China that the rule of law is malleable isn’t a good move from a strategic point-of-view. Suddenly everything is negotiable, which incentivises bad actor behaviour. 

    As for Brexit, the words of Danny Dyer still ring true:

    Who knows about Brexit? No one has got a fucking clue what Brexit is… You watch Question Time, it’s comedy. No one knows what it is. It’s like this mad riddle…

    Danny Dyer, Good Morning Britain – ITV (June 28, 2018)

    How smooth jazz originated and took off

    How habit-forming products are made by Nir Eyal. This is all pretty dark and illustrates how modern apps are and web services are made habit forming.

    There are a series of Christmas themed adverts at the moment that riff on Christmas animation The Snowman by Barbour and Irn Bru’s original and belated sequel ad.

    Uber has got into the Christmas spirit by putting a limited amount of toy themed cars out on to the streets of Paris.

    Matt Farah’s Watch and Listen podcasts is one of the better YouTube channels out there. Their interview with Jean-Marc Pontrué, the CEO of Panerai is a level of insight that you wouldn’t normally have. One key observation is that Richemont has turned SIHH into a fan event for their brands as other houses have withdrawn. It is part of a wider more engaged attitude that Panerai takes with its fans compared to the likes of Rolex. I think that its a smart move as luxury is still about experiences.

  • Most popular blog posts of 2018

    It’s that time of year again when I reflect on the things that I’ve done and what I can learn from the year. I wanted to get this out there whilst I still have a bit of respite from the holiday cheer. 

    In reverse order

    Reuse, re-edit and remix – the quality and impact of creative is a key question that is being asked at the moment. Marketers have finally woken up to the power of brand building as well as performance media. Which then begs the question what’s the minimum viable creative tweaks to effective creative that can be used?

    Apple – special event (September 2018) – trying to cut through the formulaic delivery of the company’s new products to understand what where the key salient points. I was surprised that this generated far more interest than a similar keynote at Apple WWDC which was much more interesting. 

    Enron and the net in 2000 – pre-Facebook the net was a much more decentralised place. Enron failed in their vision of a real time market for broadband, so I decided to work out what happened to some of their ‘partners’ at the time.

    Ramblings on consumption – this started off as a collection of disjointed notes I made whilst travelling to see the family in Ireland 

    Recommendations for a marketers bookshelf – you can’t dismiss the power of a good listicle. 

    This wasn’t the internet we envisaged – looking at the media of the 1990s we were promised an immersive visually stimulating interactive experience. Unfortunately we ended up with Instagramers and Facebook

    Throwback gadget: Bose Wave system – I still use a Bose Wave stereo due to the big sound that you get from a compact size. Its modular nature meant that it has weathered the iPod, DAB broadcast radio and internet streaming extremely well

    Jargon watch: zhuang bi (装b) – an exploration into Chinese l33tspeak. 

    Oprah time: Operation Elop – Nokia accounted for 25% of the Finnish economy at one stage and then spectacularly fell from grace, with the iconic phone business being sold to Microsoft. Yet the definitive history of what happened has never been licensed and translated by business publishers. I got to read a crowdsourced translation instead. 

    Things I’d like to see in 2018 – included in this list was innovation in smartphone experience (which we don’t have at the moment), a leaner web and critical thinking around the hype of crypto currencies. 

    My web toolbox – some of the tools that I was using in early July this year. 

    How to use RSS – with so many people now getting algorithmically selected, part of the solution is by going back to RSS and Atom feeds from trusted sites. So I threw together a guide to getting started with Newsblur

    The advertising industry post prompted by WPP’s 2017 financial results – how much of WPP’s difficulties are due to changes in the client and media environment versus WPP’s business?

    Social networks 10 years ago – 2018 will be looked back on in internet history as when the elites finally woke up to the dominance (ex-China) of Facebook, Google, Amazon and Apple. Looking back at 2008, it is hard to believe how much the social network eco-system changed

    Mercedes Benz China Syndrome – Chinese netizens are still jumping the Great Firewall to vilify western brands who reflect views that ‘offend the Chinese people’ – even when this content is aimed at non-Chinese audiences. Mercedes’ offence was an Instagram image with one of their cars and a quote from the exiled Dalai Lama. Dolce & Gabbana didn’t learn from the Mercedes experience. Mercedes and other brands saw the Chinese government get involved in what would be considered to be extra-territorial exceptionism. This mirrors and contrasts with the Chinese reaction to the Canadian arrest of Meng Wanzhou. The Chinese foreign ministry accused the US and Canadian governments of overreach. 

    Oprah time: Directorate S by Steve Coll – book review of Directorate S which discusses the complex relationship between the US war on terror and Pakistan

    Personal online brand – the perennial debate of should you own your own site or build your reputation on someone else’s platform?

    Out and about: Sicario 2: Soldado – I was so looking to this film and felt so disappointed when I got to watch it and was presented with a grand vision at the start that quickly fizzles out to a mediocre homage of the original, with one eye on building a franchise. 

    Dawns Mine Crystal by Yunchul Kim at Korean Cultural Centre – amazing art installation that I was fortunate to see. It moulded art and science as part of the Art @CERN project. 

    The influencers post – a post on the irrational exuberance associated with influencer marketing. I suspect that we’re close to peak influence.

    Chinese smartphone eco-system for beginners – I presume that its very Googleable – this post was inspired and featured a video on smartphones in China by Winston Sterzel earlier in the year. I then put accompanying background information to give it more context for marketers. China is changing a lot, one consequence of this is that Winston is looking to move to the US and visit China occasionally rather than live there, like he has been for the past decade.

    The long and the BBH of it – Binet’s The Long and the Short of it has been a strategists go to reference for a while. BBH pointed out the benefits of expanding the data set. However its easier to snipe from the sidelines rather than doing something meaningful about it.

    App constellations 2018 research – this built on research that I had done in 2014 and 2016. It was the most trafficked post for the first half of the year. It was also the post that took me the longest to research and I managed to lose my archive data file soon afterwards. I will revisit it, but will have to try and pull the data from these images for the basic numbers!

    Innovation: a few thoughts – this post came from the coalescence of many things that were kicking around in August and early September. My friend Nigel Scott had come up with some interesting research on venture capitalists; disabusing any illusion of science in their investment selection. You had ‘struggle porn’ being championed on LinkedIn; which made the wrong correlation between effort and innovation. Finally you have big technology companies with an inflated sense of their manifest destiny a la ‘software is eating the world’ and the hubris of Google, Facebook, Amazon, Tesla and Apple. I pulled ideas from across the board, borrowing a lot from Kevin Kelly’s concept of The Technium. 

    What if stories are brain code – storytelling is treated as a science within the creative  sector. The reality is that its based a pretty shaky base. Whilst the formulation of storytelling is suspect; psychological research indicates that stories are even more powerful than we previously realised. 

    Some data points

    30 percent of the top posts from the first half of the year made the cut through the whole of the year, which surprised me as I thought that they would benefit from additional ‘evergreen’ search traffic.  

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    Lessons learned

    • There is still an interest in long form content and research
    • There was less of an interest this year in purely social platform based subject matter materials
    • Evergreen content doesn’t seem to work as well as previously

  • Dieter Rams handbag + more things

    Buy it now: the Dieter Rams handbag – DisneyRollerGirl – the Dieter Rams handbag reminds me of the kind of thing that would appeal to Chinese millennial luxury buyers. They’ve increased their luxury consumption sophistication in leaps and bounds

    Perspectives on Encryption and Surveillance – Lawfare – great set of essays on the interface of cryptography, privacy and the law

    Autonomous Vehicle Navigation in Rural Environments without Detailed Prior Maps by Ort, Paul and Rus – interesting work being done by MIT and Toyota

    Starwood Reservation Database Security Incident – name, mailing address, phone number, email address, passport number, Starwood Preferred Guest (“SPG”) account information, date of birth, gender, arrival and departure information, reservation date, and communication preferences. For some, the information also includes payment card numbers and payment card expiration dates, but the payment card numbers were encrypted using Advanced Encryption Standard encryption (AES-128). There are two components needed to decrypt the payment card numbers, and at this point, Marriott has not been able to rule out the possibility that both were taken – oh Lordy!

    Time to step away from the ‘bright, shiny things’? Towards a sustainable model of journalism innovation in an era of perpetual change | Reuters Institute for the Study of Journalism – to be fair the same is true across marketing and advertising and client boards that have been seduced by the same management consultancy bullshit about disruption for far too long

    China unveils first satellite that offers free Wi-Fi to entire world | Video | SupChina – Oh really?

    South Korea Charges 11 With Selling Samsung Technology to China – Bloomberg – Samsung spent about 150 billion won over a period of six years to develop the OLED technology that is now considered highly-classified national knowledge (paywall) – US is the least of Chinese worries if they can get other countries China has been stealing stuff from to take action like Germany, France, Italy, Japan and South Korea

    Why is Huawei Out in the Cold? | China Media Project – ignore the mock surprise at Jack Ma being a communist party member and reflect on the  interesting analysis of the Chinese Communist Party’s reform and opening 40th anniversary celebration

    How Amazon Now Shapes What Our Stuff Looks Like | Gizmodo – how e-tailing is affecting FMCG packaging design

    The Next Great (Digital) Extinction | WIRED – how counterculture met digital and failed to meet its full potential

    Jane Wong explains why she uncovers hidden app features that tech giants like Facebook want to keep secret | South China Morning Post – great read, particularly her comments on WeChat

    How Cheap Labor Drives China’s A.I. Ambitions – The New York Times – manually writing rules is more like prior efforts at AI than the kind of machine learning advocated at the moment, but that doesn’t mean that the Chinese won’t have their successes

    Luxury goods group Kering steps up digital strategy with new Apple deals – Reuters – interesting apparent role for Apple in this

    In China’s hinterland, car market growth engine sputters – Reuters – a mix of consumer credit squeeze, move out of legacy industries, healthcare costs and inflation affecting car buyers in lower tier cities

  • Naomi Wu & things from last week

    Naomi Wu on the nascent open source culture developing in China. It isn’t just about China taking anymore but contributing. Ironically, China’s large corporates have now tried to start building intellectual property as a weapon cough, cough Huawei.

    Huawei historically leached off the open source community for software and spent a good deal of time justifying why they didn’t contribute to the open source software projects that they so heavily used. It also had a reputation of intellectual property theft, that was allowed to happen unchecked. Naomi Wu, based in Shenzhen, has been doing a lot of work to educate her peers on open source. More related content here.

    Ari Saal Forman’s Menthol 10s took a swipe at corporate culture and big tobacco. Some background for you. Menthol cigarettes were the only flavoured tobacco products allowed in the US. The government banned other flavours. Menthol cigarettes were disproportionately popular with American people of colour.

    Nike didn’t see the social purpose in the message behind the design. In this interview with Vice, Ari Saal Forman tells

    The ambiguous nature of the male host business in Japan is highlighted in this interview. Hosts can be extremely well paid and the roles are very competitive.

    The needs of their clients are surprisingly modest. The client interview section is insane, an 18 year old having $100,000 to spend on drinks in a nightclub – for some people the bubble economy years of late 1980s Japan has never gone away.

    A people’s history of computing in the US. The presenter talks about the early experiences of personal computing and programming languages like BASIC. It is interesting hearing a programmer talk about their ambiguous relationship with BASIC when they went into a professional career of programming.

    It’s the time of the year when 2019 consumer trends are trotted out.  JWT(WundermanThompson) have 100 trends. Trendwatching thankfully have just five.

  • 2018 Chinese consumers insights + more

    Who is winning more 2018 Chinese Consumers? – Global site – Kantar Worldpanel – top line is that western FMCG brands are growing 2018 China consumers market share at a slower rate than their local competitors. Any of them that banging on about 2018 Chinese consumers as a strategic market long term have another think coming. Expect these Chinese brands to go after emerging markets in Southeast Asia and Africa later on. More on consumer behaviour here.

    Facebook, Google, Amazon, and the Collapse of the Tech Mythology – The Atlantic – opportunity for public affairs and public relations industries

    Chart: Is TV’s Reign Nearing Its End? | Statista – the conclusion on this is a bit off base. What is TV? Is it the TV set, is it broadcast infrastructure or is it passive content consumption. IPTV is an extension of TV rather than something new. Is there really that much difference between Amazon Prime and cable TV or nowTV. Is Netflix that much different to HBO? Broadcast networks (terrestrial and satellite) cover more of the population in most western countries than mobile networks, or wired broadband. The technology moves a lot slower which makes have a TV that will last a decade or more an attractive proposition. By comparison my parents have an iPad that is six years old and Apple no longer supports

    Cognitive Training Does Not Enhance General Cognition: Trends in Cognitive Sciences – bang goes a parents excuse for more gaming

    Two great articles on the Dolce & Gabbana Chinese adverts and how it all blew up

    LinkedIn cuts off email address exports with new privacy setting | TechCrunch – interesting move. Especially given that LinkedIn had complained about Facebook doing a similar tactic. Web 2.0 data portability is dead and buried according to LinkedIn. The fit with Microsoft becomes apparent.