Category: consumer behaviour | 消費者行為 | 소비자 행동

Consumer behaviour is central to my role as an account planner and about how I look at the world.

Being from an Irish household growing up in the North West of England, everything was alien. I felt that I was interloping observer who was eternally curious.

The same traits stand today, I just get paid for them. Consumer behaviour and its interactions with the environment and societal structures are fascinating to me.

The hive mind of Wikipedia defines it as

‘the study of individuals, groups, or organizations and all the activities associated with the purchase, use and disposal of goods and services.’

It is considered to consist of how the consumer’s emotions, attitudes and preferences affect buying behaviour. Consumer behaviour emerged in the 1940–1950s as a distinct sub-discipline of marketing, but has become an interdisciplinary social science that blends elements from psychology, sociology, social anthropology, anthropology, ethnography, marketing and economics (especially behavioural economics or nudge theory as its often known).

I tend to store a mix of third party insights and links to research papers here. If you were to read one thing on this blog about consumer behaviour, I would recommend this post I wrote on generations. This points out different ways that consumer behaviour can be misattributed, missed or misinterpreted.

Often the devil is in the context, which goes back to the wide ranging nature of this blog hinted at by the ‘renaissance’ in renaissance chambara. Back then I knew that I needed to have wide interests but hadn’t worked on defining the ‘why’ of having spread such a wide net in terms of subject matter.

Google I/O 2016
Google I/O 2016 happened on May, 18 – 20. There had been a lot of pieces of coverage about the different products and services released. But I wanted to spend a bit of time reflecting on what Google I/O 2016 told us about their viewpoint on technology.

Giving apps a second chance

Google knows as well as anyone that the app moves towards a maturity model where consumers stick with the core apps that they want and then don’t go any further.

Data shows that consumers use their top five apps 88 per cent of the time. So why would Google care when it knows that 60 percent of the top apps on the Android platform?

The reasons for an expanded app usage include:
- A proportion of Google’s advertising (like Facebook) is derived from the promotion of app downloads
- Android devices are reaching market maturity in many markets, growth is likely to come from new uses – at least some of which will be derived from third party platforms
- Google has staked its ambition in the PC sector on its Chrome operating system being able to run apps from the Android eco-system. In order for that to happen there needs to be a healthy community of developers
- In the same way that DoubleClick’s ad network greatly expanded the inventory of Google’s advertising business, third party applications offer Google an additional source of usage for its own services. If you want to see the future of Google Apps look at the the way the likes of Baidu and Tencent allow third-party integration with their own tools
Streaming or ‘instant’ apps is part of Google’s efforts to encourage consumer trial of new apps and enhance relationships with developers. Firebase, it’s new analytics platform for mobile developers helps them have a better relationship with their installed user base allowing them to use data to target notifications and campaigns.

More faith in wider area networks (WANs) than personal area networks (PANs)

Android Wear’s updates were interesting. Put simply Google has more faith in data being delivered in a timely manner over cellular or wi-fi networks than it does for inter device transfers over variants of Bluetooth. Both the Apple Watch and Android Wear products suffered from performance lags when the watch was a thin client of a phone. Having a cellular radio on board the phone presents challenges with battery life, but speeds up real world performance.

The original design failure wasn’t down to network performance, but is likely to have implications for personal area network technology like Bluetooth in its different variants or ZigBee. These technologies are all about scale, lose a scale advantage and it poses a problem for future adoption by others. This can happen in a virtuous way. Apple’s adoption of USB benefited the standard greatly and drove interest in peripheral development for both Mac and PC. Apple’s abandonment of FireWire and the 3.5″ diskette marked their decline.

Lots to be concerned about from a privacy point of view?

Google Home moved yet another pair of Android powered ears into our environment. It was obvious from Google’s description of services that a paid marketing model to be the ‘car booking’ or equivalent service of Home could be very lucrative for the search giant. How this device could be used for market research, tracking brand mentions or government surveillance also poses some conundrums moving beyond smartphones to brown goods.

Android N features file based encryption rather than treating the whole device as an encrypted disk. This raises questions around the comparative ease of access from a privacy perspective. Secondly, SafetyNet allows Google to reach into a phone to remove pre-existing applications without user permission. There is no explanation if they also have write privileges to the phone as well. If so, expect law enforcement and intellectual property owner interest. From the way it reads this would affect apps and content that have been side loaded as well as got from an app store.

Android is giving the high ground to Apple on privacy presumably because it considers its own customers don’t care about it that much.

Reference designs in VR to drive adoption and commoditisation

Google’s Daydream project looks to provide standardisation in hardware. By going down this route, Google hopes to spur on the sensor market required for improved AR experience and drive uptake. These will likely be a very different experience to the computer workstation powered Occulus Rift. Driving this technology into the smartphone market may combat the current stagnation in phone sales growth.

More information
Google I/O 2016 event page
A16hz on Google I/O 2016
Everything Google just announced at its I/O conference
Palm, Apple, Google and the whole mobile device thing
The Limits of Google
If Google’s right about AI, that’s a problem for Apple – Marco.org
ISIS’s Mobile App Developers Are in Crisis Mode | Motherboard
June 8, 2016
Jeremy Corbyn + more things

Jeremy Corbyn Facebook strategy is so much more sophisticated than you think | Business Insider – I am not convinced that this is going to move the needle for him, it won’t reach beyond his core followers. It doesn’t match marketing best practice which makes me believe Jeremy Corbyn will be very disappointed come election time.

How e-commerce changes lives in rural China | South China Morning Post – interesting article the key thing to remember is that the South China Morning Post is owned by Jack Ma of Alibaba. More on China here.

Deodorant Changes Attractiveness Of Men And Women In Different Ways – PsyBlog – How men who appear low in masculinity can be more attractive to women.Wearing deodorant makes men who are seen as low in masculinity more attractive to women, new research finds. – the original Lynx / Axe brand positioning was closer to the mark than we thought

Can a Neuroscientist Understand Donkey Kong, Let Alone a Brain? – The Atlantic – Two researchers applied common neuroscience techniques to a classic computer chip. Their results are a wake-up call for the whole field.

This ‘Demonically Clever’ Backdoor Hides In a Tiny Slice of a Computer Chip | WIRED

The Chinese Government is Setting Up Its Own Major Science Fiction Award | io9 – this is really interesting, think about how Star Trek inspired the cellphone or Neuromancer and Star Wars inspired augmented reality. I wonder what way the government will be directing the content towards. Now do you see what China is doing here? A second thing is the that science fiction writer Cixin Liu is the one bright spot in Chinese (government-approved) soft power at the moment

The Perks Are Great. Just Don’t Ask Us What We Do. — Backchannel – life inside a malvertising company. Interesting expose

Berlin clubbers are now snorting chocolate to get high | Dazed – WTF. I’d imagine that just because chocolate sounds innocuous doesn’t mean that it wouldn’t be painful to snort

June 7, 2016
June 2016 research slides

Here is a copy of the slides that I pull together (when I have the time) of publicly available data that would be of use. This is the June 2016 research slides.

Google search volumes

This month I have some new data around search which came from disclosures at Google I/O in terms of search volumes. We talk about social as if search has gone out of style but its growth is still staggering. This is now driven by mobile device penetration and adoption as computing devices on the go. It also speaks to the wider number of questions that search now answers. It used to be that search answered with ‘facts’ found online. It then became more contextual with shortcuts that gave you the weather forecast or a foreign exchange rate. Mobile moved this on further to items like local recommendations.

Partly through the search box, but also by more meta detail about the device doing the searching and its location to within a few metres due to GPS and cell tower triangulation. Voice interaction has also started to impact search volume. Image driven search still seems to be an area that could drive much more potential search volume, that would be valuable for commerce.

Looking at global search revenue over time, Google’s monopoly position becomes immediately apparent. It is amazing how Bing and Yahoo! haven’t managed to grow market share but just transfer value from one to the other. In the Chinese market, Sohu has been obliterated with Baidu search. But one does have to wonder about the value of web search, when so much internet usage now happens in the WeChat eco-system.

More details about me here.

Full presentation

Full presentation available for download as a PDF on Slideshare and you can find more research related posts here.

June 2016 research slides from Ged Carroll

June 1, 2016
Mobile searches + more

Saying a third of mobile searches are local, Google brings “Promoted Pins” to Maps – but still no development platform for third party integration. Google Maps is still behind Baidu Maps in this respect. But the pivot towards local mobile searches offers opportunities for many small and medium sized businesses. More on where 2.0 related topics here.

Samsung will no longer make Android Wear devices, all in with Tizen OS [Update] | 9to5Google – as Benedict Evans said: Samsung is (probably) giving up on making Android Wear watches. The Apple Watch is only a partial success so far, but Android watches don’t seem to have worked at all

I, Cringely Apple and Didi is about foreign cash and the future of motoring – I, Cringely – as ever thought-provoking, Bob Cringely’s take on Apple’s Didi investment

EXCLUSIVE: The Dirty Advertising Practices of the Industry’s Biggest Brands, Bloggers — The Fashion Law – the legal challenges for influencers of becoming native advertising formats

Anti-EU Campaign Offers A £50 Million Prize For Whoever Can Predict Euro 2016 – BuzzFeed News – smart data capture. Likely to skew male

Spotify Now Lets Brands Sponsor Its Popular Playlists | IPG Lab – history repeating as consumer brands used to sponsor radio programmes like P&G’s recession era ‘soap opera’. It will be interesting to see how much traction this it gets

BNP Paribas in partnership with Luc Besson’s next movie, Valerian and the City of a thousand planets – really interesting execution from a French bank BNP Paribas. Valerian is a classic French comic space opera based on comics by Pierre Christin and artist Jean-Claude Mézières

Secrets of WeChat and Weibo Feed Stream — China Internet Watch – (paywall)

Hoffman Fabrics | Stussy – great background on the Hawaiian shirt, my favourite picture has Tom Selleck as Magnum in the background

PDF Decrypter Pro (Windows & Mac OS X) – Remove PDF owner password and restrictions – Download FREE – handy app to have on tap. the native macOS Preview app, or trying to hack the file on ColorSync will only get you so far

PayPal is shutting down its Windows Phone, BlackBerry, and Amazon apps | The Verge – its an Android and iOS world. This isn’t a good environment for carriers

May 31, 2016
The New Nokia
The New Nokia can rise from the ashes of the old. Microsoft finally let go of its licence for the Nokia brand license on May 19, 2016.

There is a lot of logic to this move:
- Microsoft has already written down the full value of the business acquisition
- It has got the most valuable technical savvy out of the team and moved it into the Surface business
- It removes problematic factories and legacy products
For the businesses that have acquired the rights to use the Nokia name and the factories the upsides are harder to see.

The factories may be of use, however there is over supply in the Shenzhen eco-system and bottlenecks aren’t usually at final manufacture, but in the component supply chain.

There is still some brand equity left in the Nokia phone brand. I analysed Nokia along with a number of other international Greater China smartphone eco-system brands using Google Trend data.

There has been a decline in brand interest over the past 12 months for Nokia of 37%

Nokia still has comparable brand equity to other legacy mobile brands such as BlackBerry and Motorola

The brand equity is comparable to other value mobile brands. Honor; Huawei’s value brand has had a lot of money and effort pumped into it to achieve its current position.

But it’s brand equity doesn’t stack up well against premium handset brands from Greater China. The reason for this is that smartphone marketing and fast moving consumer goods marketing now have similar dynamics – both are in mature little differentiated markets. Brands need to have deep pockets and invest in regular advertising to remain top-of-mind across as large an audience as possible. Reach and frequency are more important than social media metrics like engagement.

In addition to advertising spend needs to be put into training and incentivising channel partners including carriers.

They are entering a hyper-competitive market and it isn’t clear what their point of advantage will be. Given the lock down that Google puts on Android and commoditised version of handset manufacture, the best option would be to look for manufacturing and supply chain efficiencies – like Dell did in the PC industry. But that’s easier said than done.

Garnering the kind of investment required to seriously support an international phone brand is a hard sell to the finance director or potential external investors.

Growth is tapering out.

The average selling price is in steady decline

This is partly because the emerging markets are making the majority new phone purchases.

Consumers in developed markets are likely holding on to the their phones for longer due to a mix economic conditions and a lack of compelling reason to upgrade.

All of the consumers that likely want and can afford a phone in developed markets have one. Sales are likely to be on a replacement cycle as they wear out. Manufacturers have done a lot to improve quality and reliability of devices.

Even the old household insurance fraud standby of dropping a phone that the consumer was bored with down the toilet doesn’t work on the latest premium Android handsets due to water-proofing.

More information

The answer to the question you’ve all been asking | Nokia – Nokia’s official announcement
Gartner highlights a more challenging smartphone sector for Nokia than when it “quit” in 2013 | TelecomTV
Nokia is coming back to phones and tablets | The Verge
So the Nokia brand returns.. with a Vengeance | Communities Dominate Brands

Supporting data slides in full

1605 new nokia smartphone deck from Ged Carroll
May 23, 2016