Category: economics | 經濟學 | 경제학 | 経済

Economics or the dismal science was something I felt that I needed to include as it provides the context for business and consumption.

Prior to the 20th century, economics was the pursuit of gentleman scholars. The foundation of it is considered to be Adam Smith when he published is work An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations. Smith outlined one of the core tenets of classical economics: each individual is driven by self-interest and can exert only a negligible influence on prices. And it was the start of assumptions that economists model around that don’t mirror real life all the time.

What really is a rational decision maker? Do consumers always make rational decisions? Do they make decisions that maximise their economic benefit?

The problem is that they might do actions that are rational to them:

  • Reducing choice when they are overwhelmed
  • Looking for a little luxury to comfort them over time. Which was the sales of Cadbury chocolate and Revlon lipstick were known to rise in a recession
  • Luxury goods in general make little sense from a ration decision point of view until you realise the value of what they signal
  • Having a smartphone yet buying watches. Japanese consumers were known to still buy watches to show that they care about the time to employers when they could easily check their smartphone screen

All of which makes the subject area of high interest to me as a marketer. It also explains the amount of focus now being done by economists on the behavioural aspect of things.

  • PopSlate failure

    PopSlate

    I’ve go in involved in a few crowdfunded products and some of them have worked out but the majority haven’t. The latest example was the high profile e-ink phone cover PopSlate. PopSlate got over $1 million dollars of funding and was widely covered by the media.

    “popSLATE 2 is E-Ink for your iPhone done right.” – Slashgear

    “It’s an evolution, not merely refinement.” – Wired

    Why crowdsourced projects fail?

    Generally I’ve found that crowdfunded projects like PopSlate tend to fail for three (non-criminal) reasons:

    • They underestimated the cost or complexity for batch manufacture of items. They have problems with getting tooling moulds to work and have to go through iterations that burn up cash
    • They get gazzumped; their product is sufficiently easy to make that Chinese manufacturers who go through Indiegogo and Kickstarter for ideas get the product into market faster
    • The engineering is just too hard. This seems to have been the problem for PopSlate who couldn’t innovate and get their product into market as fast as new phones came out

    On the face of it, the PopSlate is a great idea. Bringing the kind of dual screen technology to the iPhone that had been in the Yota phone for a number of years. Huawei had a similar snap-on e-ink back available for the the P9 handset in limited quantities.

    popSLATE – The smart second screen on the back of your phone

    PopSlate had already launched a mark I version of their product.  With the mark II version of their product PopSlate tried to do too much: they tried to make it a battery case but still ridiculously thin.  The following email was sent out on Saturday morning UK time:

    Critical Company Update

    This update provides serious and unwelcome news.

    Based upon your support, we have spent the last year continuing to develop our vision for “always-on” mobile solutions. Our goal was to solve three fundamental issues with today’s smartphones: we wanted to simplify access to information, increase battery performance, and improve readability. Unfortunately, the significant development hurdles that we have encountered have completely depleted our finances, and we have been unable to raise additional funds in the current market. As a result, popSLATE does not have a viable business path forward.

    This marks the end of a 5-year journey for our team, which started with a seed of an idea in 2012 and led to our quitting our jobs to start the company. Although we are very disappointed by the ultimate outcome and its implications for you as our backers, we are proud of our team, who worked tirelessly over the years to commercialize the first plastic ePaper display, globally ship thousands of popSLATE 1 devices as a first-in-category product, and re-imagine & further extend the platform with the second generation product. Despite a strong vision, high hopes, and very hard work, we find ourselves at the end of the journey.

    We are out of money at this juncture for two key reasons. First, we have spent heavily into extensive development and preparation for manufacturing;  as you are aware, we hit some critical issues that multiplied the required spend, as described in previous updates.

    Most recently, we learned that the fix for the Apple OTA issues would involve more significant redesign. While we initially suspected that the Lightning circuit was the culprit, it turned out that it was a much more fundamental issue.  Namely, our housing material is not compatible with Apple OTA requirements. You may think, “Wait, isn’t it just plastic?  Why would that be a problem?” While the housing is indeed largely plastic, we used a very special custom blend of materials that included glass fibers. The glass fibers were used to solve two issues, both of which were related to making the device super-thin: a) they enabled uniform, non-distortional cooling of the housing mold around our metal stiffener plate (the key component that makes popSLATE 2 thin but very strong) and b) they added tensile strength to the very compact form factor. Unfortunately, we have concluded that these added fibers are attenuating the RF signal and that we would have to spend additional cycles to tune a new blend with required modifications to the tooling. This is an expensive and timely process.

    Second, we have been unsuccessful at raising additional financing, despite having vigorously pursued all available avenues since the close of our March Indiegogo campaign (including angels, VCs, Shark Tank and equity crowdfunding, both in the US and abroad). Many in our network of fellow hardware innovators have encountered this difficult new reality. You may have also seen the very public financial struggles of big-name consumer hardware companies—GoPro, Fitbit, Pebble, Nest and others—as highlighted in this recent New York Times article [link]. The most dramatic example of this phenomenon is the recent and sudden shutting down of Pebble, paragon of past crowdfunding success.

    There is no way to sugarcoat what this all means:

    • popSLATE has entered into the legal process for dissolution of the company
    • Your popSLATE 2 will not be fulfilled
    • There is no money available for refunds
    • This will be our final update

    While this is a very tough moment professionally and emotionally for us, it is obviously extremely disappointing for all of you who had believed in the popSLATE vision. Many of you have been with us since the March campaign, and a smaller set helped found the popSLATE community back in 2012. To you—our family, friends, and other unwavering backers—we are incredibly grateful for your enthusiasm, ideas, and support throughout the years. Just as importantly,  we deeply regret letting you down and not being able to deliver on our promise to you. We truly wish there were a viable path forward for product fulfillment and the broader popSLATE vision, but sadly we have exhausted all available options.

    Sincerely yours,
    Yashar & Greg
    Co-founders, popSLATE

    The problem as a consumer you have for much of these gadget is this:

    • If a product can be easily made in Shenzhen, it will be so you should be able to get it cheaper on lightinthebox or similar sites
    • If it can’t be turned out in a reasonable time, it has a low likelihood of succeeding

    There have been successes of more hobby-based products; I have a replica of Roland’s TB-303 synthesiser. It’s the kind of product that can be assembled whilst not relying a China-based supply chain. It also is based on well understood technology and there weren’t issues of with designing for very tight places or Apple’s requirements (in the case of iPhone’s accessories).

    What about the poster child of Pebble? Pebble managed to go for longer with a sophisticated product but couldn’t withstand the gravity of declining sales in the wearables sector. More related content here.

  • Asian Godfathers by Joe Studwell

    I’d read Joe Studwell’s How Asia Works over lunar new year so Asian Godfathers was an obvious follow-on. Studwell dealt directly with the reasons for East Asia’s economic growth and Southeast Asia’s failing to follow them.

    Asian Godfathers

    Studwell attached this same subject through through a different lens. Studwell looks at it through the lens of the business community in these different countries. In Asian Godfathers, he tells the story through Asia’s business tycoons. From the taipans of Hong Kong to Stanley Ho – the Macau gambling tycoon.

    The Asian godfathers were generally cosmopolitan privileged people who where in the right place at the right time. Some of them had colourful origin stories as black marketers selling fake medicines and blockade runners. Mao’s China relied on business tycoons across Asia when the country had closed itself off from the world.

    Studwell tells of an elderly tycoon who goes to sleep in a bedroom with no windows, such was his paranoia about revenge from the families of people who had been ‘treated’ with his black market antibiotics decades earlier.

    This also explains the paranoia that Hong Kong’s tycoons had over politicised youth in Hong Kong  as well. These are the people who are most likely to kick back against their rent seeking businesses.

    But these Asian Godfathers are just a side show in a wider panorama of political greed and incompetence across Southeast Asia. Asian Godfathers is more like Hotel Babylon than an economics analysis like How Asia Works, yet it delivers its message forcefully. More related content here.

  • Toshiba chip sale + more news

    Exclusive: Japan to vet bidders in Toshiba chip sale for national security risks – sources | Reuters – I could understand that Japan probably doesn’t want China dicking them around on the Toshiba chip sale. China would happy interfere with the Toshiba chip sale, because of the pathological hatred Chinese authoritarian nationalism holds for Japan. Also the Toshiba chip sale would aid in ‘Made in China 2025’. China could try and mess up the Toshiba chip sale like they have been doing with the Lotte chaebol of Korea and have done in the past with rare earth metals

    Business

    Beijing industry minister says no discrimination against foreign companies | SCMP – empirical evidence would tend to suggest otherwise

    ‘Superstar Firms’ May Have Shrunk Workers’ Share of Income | NY Times – is this analogous to rent seeking and monopolistic power?

    BBC Radio 4 – PM, British Airways to cut legroom on planes – WTF – part of marketing is clear differentiation from budge airline experiences beyond the price premium that you pay. I guess IAG airline British Airways doesn’t buy into that concept. So glad I got rid of my BA loyalty card years ago.

    Economics

    Faulty Towers: Understanding the impact of overseas corruption on the London property market – Transparency International UK – so basically if you’re from a high corruption country Transparency International is tarring you with the same brush. This needs to be a bit more nuanced

    Brexit hole at the heart of British budget – POLITICO – Brexit as a term apparently now polls badly….

    How to

    Unwind by Sync Project – look at the site on your phone, it accesses your heart rate presumably via the touch sensor??? and plays music to help you unwind based on the data

    Ideas

    “Adulting School” teaches millennials grown-up skills like hanging a picture, fitting a sheet, and networking — Quartz – Some interesting stuff in here, some of the subjects remind me of night classes. The demographics points are good though

    Innovation

    Doppler Labs sues Bose for allegedly stealing augmented audio tech – Business Insider – new category of active hearing products

    Cathay Pacific rethinks in-flight meals with on-demand catering trial on long haul services | SCMP – really interesting change in process

    Luxury

    Report: LVMH to Launch Multi-Brand E-Commerce Site | News & Analysis | BoF – going after Yoox | Net a Porter and department stores

    Media

    Online Affiliate Marketing – ASA | CAP – making video blogs relations with brand clear by for instance having ad in the title

    Q&A: Nicholas Thompson looks to push Wired into the future by returning to radical roots – Columbia Journalism Review – glad its happening. Wired has lost its mojo over the past number of years. Now if they could revamp their typographic design as well that would be mint.

    Online

    Flickr Adds ‘Similarity Search’ to Help You Discover Visually Similar Photos | Peta Pixel – bloody handy for mood boards and presentations

    Retailing

    Urban Outfitters’ CEO says the US retail bubble is bursting, just like housing in 2008 | Quartz – time to think about shorting Gap, Arcadia, Sports Direct etc

    Security

    WikiLeaks Releases CIA Hacking Tools – Schneier on Security – this won’t end well. Next level hacking has been democratised. The toolkits will provide a learning experience for other states and building blocks for criminal hackers. More on security here.

    University of Twente | Electronic energy meters’ false readings almost six times higher than actual energy consumption | University of Twente – Enschede – which also explains why energy vendors love smart meters. It also will call into question the likely decisions made by smart networks and smart cities

    Software

    A brief history of blockchain | HBR  – nice technical 101

    Technology 

    Why I left Mac for Windows: Apple has given up | Charged – damning indictment on the current state of the Mac. I haven’t got there but the butterfly keyboard is a piece of shit.

    Web of no web

    The Internet of Things and interaction style: the effect of smart interaction on brand attachment: Journal of Marketing Management: Vol 33, No 1-2 – pay wall

  • Have we reached peak streetwear?

    At the end of January I wrote a blog post about the landmark luxe streetwear collection by Louis Vuitton and Supreme.

    I delved into the history of streetwear and the deep connection it shared with luxury brands. This linkage came from counterfeit products, brand and design language appropriation.

    This all came from a place of individuality and self expression of the wearer.

    obey

    I reposted it from my blog on to LinkedIn. I got a comment from a friend of mine which percolated some of the ideas I’d been thinking about. The comment crystalised some of my fears as a long-time streetwear aficionado.

    This is from Andy Jephson who works as a director for consumer brand agency Exposure:

    The roots of street and lux that you point to seem to be all about individuality and self expression and for me this is what many modern collabs are missing. To me they seem to be about ostentatious showmanship. I love a collaboration that sees partners sharing their expertise and craft to create something original. The current obsession with creating hype however is creating a badging culture that produces products that could have been made in one of the knock-off factories that you mention. Some collabs that just produce new colourways and hybrid styles can be amazing, reflecting the interests of their audience. But far too many seem gratuitous and are completely unobtainable for the brand fans on one side of the collaborative partnership.

    The streetwear business is mad money

    From Stüssy in 1980, streetwear has grown into a multi-billion dollar global industry. Streetwear sales are worth more than 75 billion dollars per year.

    By comparison the UK government spent about 44.1 billion on defence in 2016. Streetwear sales are more than three times the estimated market value of Snap Inc. Snap Inc., is the owner of Snapchat.

    Rise of Streetwear

    It is still about one third the size of the luxury industry. Streetwear accounts for the majority of menswear stocked in luxury department stores. Harvey Nichols claimed that 63% of the their contemporary menswear was streetwear. Many luxury brands off-the-peg men’s items blur the boundary between luxe and streetwear.

    The industry has spawned some technology start-ups acting as niche secondary markets including:

    • Kixify
    • K’LEKT
    • THRONE
    • StockX
    • SneakerDon
    • GOAT

    Large parts of the streetwear industry has become lazy and mercenary. You can see this in:

    • The attention to detail and quality of product isn’t what it used to be. I have vintage Stüssy pieces that are very well-made. I can’t say the same of many newer streetwear brands
    • Colour-ways just for the sake of it. I think Nike’s Jordan brand is a key offender. Because it has continually expands numbers of derivative designs and combinations. New Balance* have lost much of their mojo. Especially when you look at the product their Super Team 33 in Maine came up with over the years. The fish, fanzine or the element packs were both strong creative offerings. By comparison recent collections felt weak
    • The trivial nature of some of the collaborations. This week Supreme sold branded Metro Cards for the New York subway
    • Streetwear brands that sold out to fast moving consumer products. This diluted their own brand values. While working in Hong Kong, I did a Neighborhood Coke Zero collaboration. The idea which had some tie-in to local cycling culture and nightscape. Aape – the second-brand of BAPE did a deal wrapping Pepsi cans in the iconic camouflage

    Hong Kong brand Chocoolate did three questionable collaborations over the past 18 months:

    • Vitaminwater
    • Nissin (instant noodles)
    • Dreyer’s (ice cream)

    By comparison, Stüssy has a reputation in the industry for careful business management. The idea was to never become too big, too fast. The Sinatra family kept up quality and selective distribution seeing off Mossimo, FUBU and Triple Five Soul. Yes, they’ve done collaborations, but they were canny compared to newer brands:

    “The business has grown in a crazy way the past couple of years,” says Sinatra. “We reluctantly did over $50 million last year.”

    Reluctant because, according to Sinatra, the company is currently trying to cut back and stay small. “It was probably one of our biggest years ever — and it was an accident.”

    Sinatra characterises Stüssy’s third act as having a “brand-first, revenue second” philosophy, in order to avoid becoming “this big monstrosity that doesn’t stand for anything.”

    The Evolution of Streetwear. The newfound reality of Streetwear and its luxury-like management academic study uncovered careful brand custodianship.

    It’s not clothing; it’s an asset class

    Part of the bubble feel within the streetwear industry is due to customer behaviour. For many people, street wear is no longer a wardrobe staple. Instead it becomes an alternative investment instrument. Supreme items and tier zero Nike releases are resold for profit like a day trader on the stock market.

    Many of the start-ups supported by the community play to this ‘day trader’ archetype. It is only a matter of time for the likes of Bonham’s and Sotherby’s get in on the act.

    A key problem with the market is that trainers aren’t like a Swiss watch or a classic car. They become unusable in less than a decade as the soles degrade and adhesive breaks down.

    There is the apocryphal story of a Wall Street stock broker getting out before the great stock market crash. The indicator to pull his money out was a taxi driver or a shoe shine boy giving stock tips.

    Streetwear is at a similar stage with school-age teenagers dealing must-have items as a business. What would a reset look like in the streetwear industry? What would be the knock-on effect for the luxury sector?

    More information
    USA Streetwear Market Research Report 2015 | WeConnectFashion
    Louis Vuitton, Supreme and the tangled relationship between streetwear and luxury brands | renaissance chambara
    New Balance Super Team 33 – Elements Collection | High Snobriety
    New Balance ST33 – The Fanzine Collection | High Snobriety
    1400 Super Team 33 (ST33) trio | New Balance blog – the infamous fish pack
    How Stüssy Became a $50 Million Global Streetwear Brand Without Selling Out | BoF (Business of Fashion)
    The Evolution of Streetwear. The newfound reality of Streetwear and its luxury-like management by de Macedo & Machado, Universidade Católica Portuguesa (2015) – PDF

    * in the interest of full disclosure, New Balance is a former client.

  • My Friend Cayla + more news

    My Friend Cayla

    My Friend Cayla doll banned in Germany over surveillance concerns – ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation) – So are most other connected systems such as Google Now, Siri and Alexa powered devices. My Friend Cayla has little to no security allowing it to be relatively easily hacked.

    Business

    Uber’s work environment sounds even worse than we thought – Business Insider – who said beer bong bro?

    Snap’s IPO Draws Barclays CEO, But London Investors Remain Wary – Bloomberg – slowing user growth an issue

    Economics

    How Trump’s Bullying of Mexico Could Backfire | The New Republic – could Mexico follow the Asian model of economic development?

    Wanda’s Dick Clark deal shaky, but not yet dead: sources | Reuters – restrictions on currency movement

    What Does Trump Want? China Scours Twitter, Cocktail Parties for Clues – Bloomberg – they may decide just to wait Trump out

    Ethics

    Let’s not kid ourselves: sexual harassment is rampant in Silicon Valley | The Outline – bro culture and brewskis by nerds

    Closer look: Assassination Report Has China Talking About Ageism – Caixin Global – interesting commentary on Huawei

    FMCG

    The $143bn flop: How Warren Buffett and 3G lost Unilever | FTBack in London on Saturday, as [Unilever CEO] Mr Polman tapped into his network of contacts, he was informed that Finsbury was working with Kraft Heinz on PR. Within seconds, Mr Polman blasted off an email to Sir Martin Sorrell, the founder and chief executive of WPP, the advertising company that counts Unilever as one of its most important clients. Finsbury, which is majority owned by WPP, was removed from the Kraft Heinz side by the end of the day. – guessing Kraft Heinz isn’t worth that much for WPP, also think that you can take Colgate Palmolive off the table as well since they are a big WPP customer

    Japan

    Japan’s wild, creative Harajuku street style is dead. Long live Uniqlo | Quartz – think Camden market before the energy got sucked out of it

    Korea

    Ask a Korean!: Presidential Election and Spy Agency – Interesting article on fake news in Korea

    Luxury

    Hurun: China’s Super-Rich Name Apple, Bulgari As Top Brands for Gifting | Jing Daily – interesting rise of Alipay rather than UnionPay

    Marketing

    Ask uncomfortable questions: UBS and boundary-pushing content marketing | Campaign – odd partnership with Vice Media

    Developers | Uber – interesting stuff on augmenting a passengers journey as marketing opportunity via the API

    Media

    Facebook Messenger Now Lets Brands Send Unprompted Messages Within 24 Hours Of Conversation | IPG Media Labs

    Don’t Look Now, but the Great Unbundling Has Spun Into Reverse – NYTimes.com – bundling started to be used by online business for the same reasons as offline

    Security

    Apple Severed Ties with Server Supplier After Security Concern — The Information – I imagine that this is what being a target of the NSA’s tailored access programme would look like. There are a number of other state actors with similar capabilities. SuperMicro is interesting because it assembles servers outside China – instead it has factories in San Jose, The Netherlands and Taiwan

    Nuts and Bolts of Encryption: A Primer for Policymakers by Edward W Felten (Princeton University) – great 101 guide (PDF)

    Technology

    NVIDIA’s GTX 1080: The Tip Of The Iceberg? – OneRiver Media Blog – Apple need to sort their Pro range out

    Web of no web

    Smart Waggle Boosts IoT | EE Times – interesting move towards a thicker client on IoT for cloud

    Wireless

    Oppo knocks: Beating Apple, Xiaomi and the gang in China | The Economist – BBK the parent of Oppo and Vivo was a successful feature phone maker with good channels and manufacturing smarts – Huawei should be afraid