Category: economics | 經濟學 | 경제학 | 経済

Economics or the dismal science was something I felt that I needed to include as it provides the context for business and consumption.

Prior to the 20th century, economics was the pursuit of gentleman scholars. The foundation of it is considered to be Adam Smith when he published is work An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations. Smith outlined one of the core tenets of classical economics: each individual is driven by self-interest and can exert only a negligible influence on prices. And it was the start of assumptions that economists model around that don’t mirror real life all the time.

What really is a rational decision maker? Do consumers always make rational decisions? Do they make decisions that maximise their economic benefit?

The problem is that they might do actions that are rational to them:

  • Reducing choice when they are overwhelmed
  • Looking for a little luxury to comfort them over time. Which was the sales of Cadbury chocolate and Revlon lipstick were known to rise in a recession
  • Luxury goods in general make little sense from a ration decision point of view until you realise the value of what they signal
  • Having a smartphone yet buying watches. Japanese consumers were known to still buy watches to show that they care about the time to employers when they could easily check their smartphone screen

All of which makes the subject area of high interest to me as a marketer. It also explains the amount of focus now being done by economists on the behavioural aspect of things.

  • Margaret Thatcher

    This isn’t a post about what I think about Margaret Thatcher, beyond my amazement at the body politic and their inability to make appropriate decisions related to the telecoms, media and technology sectors. It has never been that much of interest to me and viewed it with a lot of my cynicism fueled by legislation like part V of the Criminal Justice and Public Order Act 1994 or the Digital Economy Act 2010.

    I cited those two acts in particular, as they are empirical evidence that stupidity doesn’t run along party lines. I’ve also met some really smart politically active people who I am happy to consider my friends including Nick Osborne and Will Heald.

    Instead this post is more about trying to make sense of what happened after Margaret Thatcher died and try and contextualise it for the wider world.

    On the pro-Margaret Thatcher side of things the narrative is relatively easy. Mrs Thatcher was responsible for clearly differentiating against the Labour Party. The Conservatives came to power with a raft of ideas that they thought would reinvigorate the UK; socially and economically. Under Mrs Thatcher, the government took on and won conflicts against strong interest groups including the trade union movement – which has never recovered.

    The Margaret Thatcher administration was considered to have played a strong game abroad; from the Falklands Islands to negotiating with the European Community. She is also lauded as being a partner to Ronald Reagan on foreign policy.

    Mrs Thatcher is not President Reagan

    Whilst many American media saw an analogue between Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher; I think that a closer comparison would be Lyndon B. Johnson. Johnson became president at a troubled time. The politics of Thatcher and Johnson were very different but some of the factors of their administrations were very similar. America was going through economic and social change. His part in that change, in particular the civil rights movement divided voters – Johnson took decisions that were unpopular and sowed the seeds of the current bipartisanship in the US government.

    Margaret Thatcher faced similar troubled times in the UK:

    • UK industry was struggling – UK industry had suffered decades of chronic underinvestment and poor stakeholder relationships. It no longer had many of the advantages of its first mover status in the industrial age. In addition, the rebuild of mainland Europe after the war and US foreign policy towards the British Empire had accelerated the UK’s decline due to a lack of captive markets and increasing competition. Globalisation had come on stream as Korean shipyards, Japanese consumer goods and cheap Indian textiles demolished industry in the North of England. The interesting thing was that lots of foreign-run businesses in the UK were doing much better than their British counterparts so it couldn’t have been all about the workers
    • It is hard for anyone under the age of 25 to imagine it, but the Cold War promised imminent destruction which changed the relationship between western and eastern Europe. Deployment of US nuclear weapons on UK soil was emotive
    • Society generally wasn’t as liberal as it is now, being PC didn’t happen. Discrimination was rampant as the UK hadn’t addressed the changing racial and ethic mix of the country from descendants of the Windrush immigrants, the Irish and the South Asian immigrant communities. Enoch Powell had made his famous rivers of blood speech a few years before. Society wasn’t as accepting of the LGBT elements of the community
    • Foreign policy had to deal with a diminished role for the UK in the world. From trying to manage that the UK was outmaneuvered on Hong Kong by China to the unequal partnership with the US

    The conflict points

    • Monetary policy to reduce inflation – this drove up interest rates and sent many UK manufacturing businesses to the wall. A good deal of this was because Margaret Thatcher rejected Keynesian economics. Since the North of England was dependent on these businesses an economic gulf opened up between the South East and the rest of the country. Subsequent economic progress widened the gap further
    • Miners Strike – Margaret Thatcher and her cabinet sought to go head-to-head with the NUM which had brought down the Heath administration. Admittedly, the miners weren’t helped by Arthur Scargill’s leadership
    • Privatisation – took assets out of state control. It is controversial every time there is a train crash or electricity price hike as it allowed strategic assets to be owned by foreign companies the debate wages on about appropriate returns and a lack of investment
    • The big bang – deregulated banking and fueled further growth in the city. Along with the move to home ownership, new-fangled financial instruments created the conditions of the current economic crisis. The lack of a portfolio of industries in the UK economy meant the the country took a harder hit than other European countries with a similar balance sheet
    • Poll tax – the community charge or poll tax was a replacement for the property rates which used to fund council services. Since it was a flat charge on the individual it had been considered as far back as 1981 and viewed in a Green Paper to be unfair. It was eventually implemented first in Scotland and then in England and Wales in 1990. Riots ensued as the tax was considered to be unfair by many
    • Northern Ireland – the Margaret Thatcher administration had reasons to be disliked by both sides. Republicans due to the  way in which the Thatcher administration handled the Hunger Strikes in the Maze prison and the shoot-to-kill policy; Unionists due to the Anglo-Irish agreement that gave the Irish government a say in Northern Ireland’s affairs

    All of this has made the Conservatives almost unelectable in many parts of the UK; Scotland only has one Conservative MP. This is closer to the Lyndon B. Johnson analogy for Margaret Thatcher echoing Lyndon B. Johnson’s comments about losing the South for generations when he legislated on equal rights.

    Under-discussed aspects of the Thatcher administration

    • The Advisory Council on the Misuse of Drugs was allowed to shape and direct day-to-day policy on drug use which was at odds with Mrs Thatcher’s conviction (rather than evidence)-based approach to policy
    • Launching campaigns promoting safe sex and the dangers of AIDS. Again this sat against Mrs Thatcher’s personal beliefs in terms of family values
    • Taking climate change seriously. Prior to her career as a politician Mrs Thatcher has been a research chemist, which probably helped her understand the issue. Her understanding of climate change had nothing to do with her conflict with the miner’s unions
    • Ironically Margaret Thatcher signed the UK up to the Single European Act to create one European market
    • Abolished corporal punishment in state schools back in 1986. No more going to the headmaster’s office to be caned
    • Rupert Murdoch – Margaret Thatcher’s close relationship with Murdoch was a mutually beneficial relationship; however it set the template that led to the current news media debacle in the UK that lead to the Leveson Report

    What I can’t really explain is the amount of energy that has gone into the debate some 20 years after she left office.

    I suspect that Margaret Thatcher’s death is a point where the wider political agenda shaped by her administration has taken the UK since the mid-1990s is being debated.  This debate isn’t split along current party lines as Ed Milliband’s Labour Party is still similar to the New Labour of Tony Blair – just a bit jaded and suffering from a creative bankruptcy of new ideas.

    Secondly, when one looks at the like of the English Defence League, Casuals United and UKIP there seems to be at least part of the country who don’t feel as if mainstream politics represents them.

    Finally, there is an underlying anger in the poorer members of society for which the 2011 were a pressure valve letting off steam. Throw in some industrial action into the mix and it would all start to feel like 1979 again…

  • Sherpa + more news

    Sherpa

    Startup Sherpa Bets Its Predictive Smartphone Assistant Can Best Google Now | MIT Technology Review – Sherpa is mobile assistant that performs searches on the web, takes notes, posts content to Facebook and stream music on command. The app had a big impact in Spanish speaking markets. It uses Android’s speech recognition API. Sherpa competes against Google voice search and provides an equivalent service to Siri on the iPhone.

    Culture

    DAFT PUNK | In the studio

    Consumer behaviour

    Generation Mooch? Why 20-somethings have a hard time paying for content — paidContentmedia‘s big challenge

    Economics

    Why Your Kid Can’t Get a Job – Forbes

    Debt burden could grow to ‘unsustainable’ levels: IMF | Irish Examiner

    BBC News – The Great British class calculator: What class are you? – nice exploration of the UK’s socio economic landscape

    College Grads May Be Stuck In Low-Skill Jobs – this all feels very early 1990s all over again

    BBC News – Should Britain let go of London?

    The UK Energy Crisis in 3 simple awareness-raising pictures • The Register – freaky weather and precarious natural gas supplies. Time to go nuclear

    Why Twenty-Somethings Aren’t Doomed to Be Poor (but Thirty-Somethings Might Be) – Atlantic Mobile

    Finance

    LINK – Statistics – interesting data points on ATM usage in UK

    How to

    3 Free SEO Tools for Identifying Target Keywords | Search Engine Journal

    Hubspot-The Complete Guide to Global Social Media Marketing.pdf_微盘下载 – good download from CIC Data

    Luxury

    Mercedes-Benz introduces CLA 45 AMG model amid leaping dancers – Quartz

    China: No Longer Largest Art Market | Sports and Culture Blog – this may have something to do with the way capital flight happens so may not count as a Chinese purchase

    Vera Wang scraps $500 China try-on fee, knockoffs still flourish | Reuters

    Marketing

    White Paper: Why the Brand Idea Still Matters in the Age of Social Media | JWT Blog

    Media

    What Advertisers Think About Mobile – Business Insider

    For Facebook Ads, How Targeted Is Too Targeted? – AllFacebook – friends aren’t necessarily like you

    What You Need to Know About Pinterest Web Analytics | VML

    WPP makes strategic investment in SFX Entertainment – WPP

    Ad Agencies Frustrated As Yahoo Focuses Energy Elsewhere | Advertising Age

    Online

    Amazon Acquires Social Reading Site Goodreads, Which Gives The Company A Social Advantage Over Apple | TechCrunch

    Experian Hitwise report: UK online video exceeds one billion visits a month {client} – Dot Comms – Find out about the UK’s online video consumption in latest Experian Hitwise UK’s report

    What’s Actually Wrong with Yahoo’s Purchase of Summly :: Hacking, Distributed

    Apple’s broken promise: why doesn’t iCloud ‘just work’? | The Verge

    Let’s Say FeedBurner Shuts Down… | CSS-Tricks

    Facebook moves to defuse algorithm row – Brand Republic NewsOne industry source claimed the natural reach of posts it made on behalf of a brand with one of the biggest Facebook followings in the UK has dropped from 15% to 5% after the change to the EdgeRank algorithm

    Retailing

    Customers Flee Wal-Mart Empty Shelves for Target, Costco – Bloomberg – running stores too lean in staff has meant that shelves can’t be restocked in sufficient time to keep selling product

    Security

    Saudi Arabia “Threatens Skype Ban” – also messaging services

    Schneier on Security: Our Internet Surveillance State

    Software

    Google Play risks destroying the market for premium apps on Android, believes Flexion Mobile – dramatic headline, but the dynamics described are not surprising

    Chromium Blog: Blink: A rendering engine for the Chromium project – expect a wider range of web testing for future mobile and desktop browsers

    Gartner: Microsoft’s dominance of computing is over | T3 – I think Gartner is premature in its assumption. For instance, all computing platforms aren’t created equal in terms of value creation

    Spanish Linux group files antitrust complaint against Microsoft • The Register

    Wireless

    iPhone data usage: Phablets seen as a fad | BGR

    The Facebook Phone & The Triumph Of Native Apps Over HTML5 – ReadWrite

    What, exactly, WiFiSLAM is, and why Apple acquired it – The Next Web

    Apple’s first quarter of negative income growth since 2003 – Fortune – interesting analysis of the data

  • Mercedes Benz G63 + more

    Mercedes Benz G63 AMG

    Mercedes Benz G63 AMG 6×6 « Gear Patrol – I can’t work out if the Mercedes Benz G63 AMG 6×6 is amazing or stupid. It is based on the G Wagen which is a proper off-road vehicle. The 6×6 platform used was developed for the military like Germany’s KSK special forces unit. The Mercedes Benz G63 AMG adds a ridiculously overturned engine. AMG then has to go over every inch of the Mercedes Benz G63 and change chassis and components to adequately handle the power.

    Business

    16th annual CEO survey – pwc – (PDF)

    Consumer behaviour

    Chinese women aspire to be housewives | Market-interactive.com

    Study: Twitter debates don’t represent opinions of general public (Wired UK)

    Share Everything: Why the Way We Consume Has Changed Forever – Emily Badger – The Atlantic Cities

    Design

    BMW announced it’s i3 Coupe concept this week. It was buzzword compliant with plug-in technology; but the most interesting thing for me about it was the way in which the car shows the current range that could be travelled as part of its in-car instrumentation.

    range

    It was a duh moment of genius simplicity in terms of user experience design for vehicles.

    Economics

    China: Beyond The Miracle | Zero Hedge – interesting piece of analysis

    Q&A with Jim ‘BRIC’ O’Neill: Grillo’s good, China’s fine, Europe’s fading – Quartz

    The fourth euro crisis cycle of panic has officially begun – Quartz

    Euro zone unemployment hits a record high of 11.9% – Quartz

    Finance

    Why delinquent student loans are the fuse on America’s next debt bomb – Quartz

    Rigging the I.P.O. Game – NYTimes.com – this reminds me of the first day ‘pop’ that my former client VA Lnux had when they IPO’d

    UK and US toe the edge of a “regulatory trade war” over banking – Quartz

    Hong Kong

    Wu-Tang Clan’s RZA Breaks Down His Kung Fu Samples by Film and Song

    How to

    How to RSVP in an Entrepreneurial Way | AlwaysOn

    Twitter Archiving Google Spreadsheet TAGS v3 Jisc CETIS MASHe

    Nintendo games on a Mac – Matt Gemmell

    Creation Pinpoint™ | Dashboard for Understanding What Doctors Talk About Online. – New SM listening/monitoring tool for pharma – allows you to monitor only what HCPs are saying

    Korea

    Microsoft Seeks Software License from South Korea Military – Korea Real Time – WSJ

    London

    Evening Standard – FIFTY BEST: Independent coffee shops – as a Foursquare list

    Catching Up with the City Boy Who Spilled the City’s Secrets | VICE United Kingdom – interview with Geraint Anderson formerly a columnist in thelondonpaper

    Luxury

    Collectables – British Airways Business Life. – modern items that are collectable

    Marketing

    The Agenda for the Global Marketer – ad people worldwide – interesting white paper (PDF)

    Outside looking in – EIU – challenges CMO faces in dealing with the board

    Media

    Tumblr to Introduce Mobile Advertising to Help Achieve Profit – Bloomberg

    #LFW: The ELLE UK Twitter report | ELLE UK – since when was fashion a democracy? Elle uses Twitter as an arbiter of taste. More related luxury content here.

    Digital Media in China – Digital Media Asia

    Social media policy | immediate future. – library of social media policies

    Pottermore Reaches Out To Harry Potter Fan Sites – affiliate marketing doesn’t pay that well

    Online

    TelecomTV | Reality bites: Fed-up with Facebook, the kids are are going somewhere “cooler”. – can’t say that I am surprised beyond the fact that network effects had been such a break on the retreat

    5 things that may change on your Facebook timeline – CTV

    Facebook algorithm stopping you see the content you subscribe to, unless brands pay | The Wall Blog

    The age of the brag is over: why Facebook might be losing teens | The Verge

    The Decline and Fall of Social Networks

    Andrew Mason on being fired by the Groupon board

    Security

    Penn Schoen Berland – Execs say cyber-attacks a top priority – PSB is a sister agency

    Google services should not require real names: Vint Cerf | Reuters

    First SOPA, Now Your Privacy: Facebook, Google Flex Lobbying Muscle in Europe | Mother Jones

    Software

    Google controls too much of China’s smartphone sector: ministry | Reuters – 90 per cent market share

    How Are You Feeling Today? A New Mood-Measuring App Can Tell You | Co.Create: Creativity Culture Commerce

    Jolla Wants To Build A Foursquare Phone, A Facebook Phone | TechCrunch

    Microsoft Might Owe Denmark More Than $1 Billion in Unpaid Tax

    Keeping the Wolfram from the Data

    Fontastic – A Processing library to create font files

    Who’ll win the consumer video codec battles?

    Resurgence in Neural Networks – tjake.blog

    Journo & Literate CoffeeScript

    Learning How to Code Is A Waste of Time – Forbes

    Technology

    PC market to decline for a second consecutive year in 2013, says IDC

    Library Camp London – Audio Recordings & Writeup | Terence Eden has a Blog

    Intel will make 14nm FPGAs for Altera

    Logitech reorganises to focus on mobile products

    Why Nobody Can Copy Apple | cek.log

    Telecoms

    Exclusive-Skype’s Jonathan Rosenberg, Father of SIP, Bolts Back To Cisco – VoIP Watch

    Wireless

    Why the Galaxy S4 won’t be shedding its plastic roots | CNET News

  • Siberian meteor burst + more

    Siberian meteor burst

    I know that there have been 500 people with minor injuries, but  the Siberian meteor burst felt like I was living in a Jerry Bruckheimer film. The best observation I saw about it was in Vice magazine’s email newsletter which asked why so many drivers in Russia had managed to film the asteroid rather than keeping both hands on the wheel? The reason for the multiple recordings of the Siberian meteor burst is driver cams used to help with car accident disputes. The Siberian meteor burst brought back memories of the Tunguska event in 1908 which levelled large swathes of Siberian forest.

    Business

    “Physically Together”: Here’s the Internal YHOO No-Work-From-Home Memo | AllThingsD – I could see a post coming on from Becky McMichael about the benefits of remote working and flexible hours etc etc

    PrivCo | LIVINGSOCIAL $110M Debt Infusion From Existing Investors With Oppressive Terms – I wonder what implications this will have for GroupOn

    Consumer behaviour

    HBO: The Weight of the Nation interesting site on obesity in the US

    Culture

    So there has been extensive character redesigns and different actors will be voicing some of the main protagonists, but I am super-excited that Production I.G are returning with another installment in the Ghost In the Shell series of anime. Arise looks amazing judging by the trailer footage now available on YouTube. More Japan related content can be found here.