Innovation, alongside disruption are two of the most overused words in business at the moment. Like obscenity, many people have their own idea of what innovation is.
Judy Estrin wrote one of the best books about the subject and describes it in terms of hard and soft innovation.
Hard innovation is companies like Intel or Qualcomm at the cutting edge of computer science, materials science and physics
Soft innovation would be companies like Facebook or Yahoo!. Companies that might create new software but didn’t really add to the corpus of innovation
Silicon Valley has moved from hard to soft innovation as it moved away from actually making things. Santa Clara country no longer deserves its Silicon Valley appellation any more than it deserved the previous ‘garden of delights’ as the apricot orchards turned into factories, office campus buildings and suburbs. It’s probably no coincidence that that expertise has moved east to Taiwan due to globalisation.
It can also be more process orientated shaking up an industry. Years ago I worked at an agency at the time of writing is now called WE Worldwide. At the time the client base was predominantly in business technology, consumer technology and pharmaceutical clients.
The company was looking to build a dedicated presence in consumer marketing. One of the business executives brings along a new business opportunity. The company made fancy crisps (chips in the American parlance). They did so using a virtual model. Having private label manufacturers make to the snacks to their recipe and specification. This went down badly with one of the agency’s founders saying ‘I don’t see what’s innovative about that’. She’d worked exclusively in the IT space and thought any software widget was an innovation. She couldn’t appreciate how this start-ups approach challenged the likes of P&G or Kraft Foods.
Ernest Shackleton, the Irish explorer and the heroic age of antarctic exploration are evoked in Apple’s ads for its Apple Watch Ultra – a rival to Casio’s G-ShockMaster of G range and the Protrek range, Seiko’s similarly named Prospex range and Citizen’s Promaster range of watches.
https://youtu.be/tidgsqAf_tI
The underlying dialogue uses the text to a newspaper advert attributed to Shackleton when he was looking to recruit crew members for his ship the Endeavour. The Endeavour expedition competed with the rival Roald Amundsen’s expedition to reach the South Pole.
The monologue also reaches back to the way Apple did its Think Different brand campaign rather than the kinetic iPhone, iPod and iWatch ads of the past.
Men wanted for hazardous journey. Low wages, bitter cold, long hours of complete darkness. Safe return doubtful. Honour and recognition in event of success.
The reality is that the ad didn’t become widely known until decades after Shackleton had died. There is no evidence to suggest that he ever wrote the words (stirring though they are in nature), or that the advert was ever published by Shackleton.
Instead of Shackleton, who then wrote the words attributed to him? We’ll probably never know. What we do know is that they were first published in a book published in 1959. The 100 Greatest Advertisements: 1852-1958 written by Julian Lewis Watkins and was first published by first published by Dover Publications, Inc. Whether it was Shackleton who wrote them or not, they went into popular culture and sparked additional interest in the Irish explorer. Shackleton died in 1921 when returned to the Antarctic with the Shackleton–Rowett Expedition, he suffered a fatal heart attack while his ship was moored in South Georgia. We don’t know whether Ernest Shackleton would have appreciated the Apple Watch Ultra as a technical marvel concocted by wondrous boffins, or a pointless exercise in frippery for the serious explorer.
Rolex Deepsea Challenge – a watch even more worthy of Shackleton?
I know a watch is special when my Dad is telling me about it as soon as it’s launched. Rolex has upgraded its Rolex Sea-Dweller Deepsea to create the Rolex Deepsea Challenge. Out goes the largely useless date window, in comes an an all titanium grade 5 alloy case that’s 50mm across. This means that the watch moves from being waterproof of a depth of 3,900 meters to 11,000 meters (or just over 6.8 miles) with the new Deepsea Challenge.
The Deepsea Challenge watch follows on from the years of experience that Rolex has had making titanium watches under its secondary Tudor brand using a similar (if not the same) grade 5 titanium.
Titanium Grade 5 is the most widely used titanium alloy. It has (relatively) good hot formability and weldability. It is resistant to salt water, marine atmosphere and a variety of corrosive media temperatures below 300 ° C. Grade 5 titanium alloy is most likely to be accepted by the human body – its hypoallergenic and ideal for medical transplant components like hip joints.
It is made up of 88.74-91.0 percent titanium, 5.5-6.75 percent aluminium, 3.5-4.5 percent vanadium and no more than 0.015 percent hydrogen.
There is obviously osmosis between the two brands in terms of innovation, materials, process and technologies. This also explains why Tudor tries to do innovative designs in its range rather than just digging into the rich seam of ‘heritage looking’ watches with the Black Bay, Ranger and Heritage Chrono models.
The watch community has already started spoofing the watch, which is another sign of it having become an icon. Whether it’s a famous icon, or infamous icon remains to be seen.
35th Tokyo Girl’s Collection
I talked years ago on this blog about the innovative approach to retailing behind the Tokyo Girl’s Collection. I came across their 2022 autumn and winter collection opening stage event, which I am sharing here.
https://youtu.be/vx4AzkAtD3o
USB-C
Apple on the EU regulating connectors to standardise on USB-C. The reason why Apple went to detachable cables on chargers is very interesting. Apple are reluctantly complying over USB-C. The discussion around innovation is really interesting, particularly the way in which Apple executives duck the question.
This post on AI and creativity was inspired by experiments being done at work by a member of our design department. They had been using Midjourney to create images within a minute of receiving an initial set of words as creative prompts.
For example we created this surreal image which fits somewhere between Christian kitsch familiar to catholic households around the world and a touch of Syd Mead‘s visual futurism. This comes from the prompt.
Jesus fighting alongside the US Air Force
https://flic.kr/p/2nSGwLB
Other efforts weren’t successful, we had faces featuring eyes with two pupils and when it tried to render round shapes, it didn’t know when to stop. The hands would go on and on as a twisted mass of flesh. This could be resolved by creating a human character in a service like MetaHuman and uploading that to Midjourney as a base model instead.
How neural networks drive AI and creativity?
Midjourney works using two neural networks. The first works to render an image. The second compares the processing image to exemplars from a data bank of images. There is a back and forth exchange between the two networks until a number of variants are rendered. At this point the human operator is given a choice, or they can choose to have other variations created if the originals don’t meet their requirements.
These images can be rendered in high resolution allowing for an amazing level of detail.
Dystopian vibes
The dystopian feel of the use of AI and creativity is down to a few different factors.
The first reason is that dystopia is at the centre of our cultural zeitgiest in the west. Documentary maker Adam Curtis covers it really well in this discussion with with the Joe Politics channel on YouTube. This zeitgeist affects the type of imagery that the AI has available to draw upon and the kind of prompts that people use to create AI images.
Secondly, the use of AI to ‘create’ something lacks the feeling and collective emotional experiences of a real person. Those elements can’t be captured in prompts which is why images land with the sensation of a dead fish.
What does AI and creativity mean for agencies?
Concepting
The most immediate impact could be in rapid concepting, analogous to how rapid prototyping for manufacturing design. Creative teams would still need to conceive of ideas but concepts could then be brought to live in minutes.
It’s as far away from the black marker and pad that creative directors traditionally used; as paste up graphic design techniques from the use of desktop publishing software that started to impact the design world in the mid to late 1980s.
News illustrations and graphic novels show the way
One of the first areas that is really shaken up by AI and creativity has been the world of the political cartoonist and news illustrator. At the moment newspapers and news magazines pay skilled artists to develop and conceptual designs that convey a political concept.
A good example of this is the covers of The Economist magazine. However things are starting to change. US political publication The Bulwark has already started using AI generated illustrations processed by Midjourney. Midjourney has also been used to create graphic novels.
One could easily see how this might be extended into business-to-business marketing for intangible products like software and services.
Production
The hyper-realistic effects that AI can produce is likely to inspire a desire in clients to use them more often for cost effective production costs. At the moment however, the results can be very hit and miss. There is a problem with hands, faces, interlocking round shapes and a ‘dead’ look to the work.
Social implications
At first we had a discussion about what happens to designers? Were they doomed? Should there be a universal income for them or should they march in the streets to ? How could the technology be stopped?
I wasn’t exactly a ray of sunshine in this discussion. I pointed out that over the past few centuries, capital won out over labour every time. So people only kept their jobs if they cost less than the process to automate their tasks.
Globalisation versus automation
London like a few other cities have ad agency work done that is designed for global audiences. At the moment I work on campaigns designed for markets including: the UK and Ireland, Spain, Italy, the US, Vietnam and Japan. Globalisation seems to have benefited hub cities rather than moved the work to cheaper locales.
This in sharp contrast to what happened to British manufacturing. Whole sectors largely disappeared:
Steel making
Textile mills
Shipbuilding
Car manufacturing
Chemical industry
Pharmaceutical manufacturing
Engineering and fabrication
Where capacity was spared, it was largely down to the UK being a good point of entry into the European Union. As the number of countries expanded new manufacturing jobs moved east; and workers moved west to fill workforce needs in established UK factories depressing salaries.
Research shows that globalization only accounts for 13 percent of job loss in US manufacturing while 88 percent of losses were from automation including robotic manufacturing. In fact, availability of ever-cheaper automation options combined with uncertainty in the global supply chain has led to a resurgence in “onshoring” manufacturing.
Automation has been the quiet destructor of roles. During the 1960s businesses had typing pools and secretaries. Many of these roles disappeared due to desktop computers, office productivity software and the democratisation of touch typing as a skill.
The Technium
Even if labour won out over capital in the UK, there is no guarantee that they would be able to stop the march of technology. Kevin Kelly in his book What Technology Wants shares the idea of ‘The Technium’. The idea behind The Technium is that technology has a momentum of its own building on previous progress. Kelly goes as far to describe it as a super organism of technology. He believes that it exerts a force that is partly cultural with technology influencing and being in turn being influenced by technology. All of which means adaption and accommodation are likely to be the way forward for now.
Adaptation
While people don’t realise it, you’ve been using what could be termed AI for decades:
Autofocus on a camera
Losing ‘shake’ in camcorder and smartphone video
Programmes in a microwave the attempt to cook a casserole or baked potato
Predictive text (although it seems to have become more stupid over time)
Siri, Alexa and Google’s various search functions
In the case of a designer it would also include tools like the ‘lasso’ function in Photoshop that automatically cuts around objects including frizzy hair on a model. So it’s a bit late in the day for people to get squeamish about AI and creativity. Dominant creative software company Adobe sees the place of AI and creativity more as a technology to augment designers in their work rather than replace them. Much of the current Adobe focus seems to be on lowering the on-ramp for new users of their software packages.
There will be more of a challenge for supporting professions like photographers. Fashion brand Hugo Boss is looking to 3D AI powered design to aid in product design and 3D rendering threatening product photography for websites, look books and catalogues.
Limitations of AI and Creativity
One of the things that my colleagues said which really struck with me was ‘if an AI told the world’s funniest joke’ would it know that it was funny? Software is being used to track emotional response, but it wouldn’t necessarily know why something was funny.
The AI can’t be coded with a summation of life experiences, it can analyse emotions, but as far as we know doesn’t experience them yet. This probably explains why Studio Ghibli and Disney animation feels like it has much more life in it than the best AI renders.
Is it art?
Auction houses have sold works generated using AI, but is the art in the creation of the work, or in the decision to use an AI to do the work and thinking of the artist behind that idea? AI can produce works as they have existed before and mash-up genres and ideas, but it wouldn’t be able (at the moment) to create something completely novel through a leap of abstraction, such as a concept like Marcel Duchamp’s sculpture ‘Fountain‘.
AI images can be nice, but do they involve an illusion of creativity? Everything that appears in an AI image is depended on the inputs that the AI receives and the content in image banks that it uses as a reference – which is the reason why AIs often sign works with an indecipherable script.
Do artist styles have to be better protected as part of their IP as well as their works?
IP issues goes beyond artists. We created an artistic rendering of Pokemon character ‘Pikachu’ on Midjourney using the prompt
Definitely not a pikachu
In conclusion
If you’re a creative we eventually managed to get to four thoughts from the discussion:
In the grand scheme of things, change is the only constant
AI has been changing things and will continue to do so
It is inevitable that there willl be some automation and augmentation happening in the creative professions such as design
In the words of Douglas Adams book Hitchhiker’s Guide To The Galaxy ‘Don’t Panic’ – but be prepared to adapt and learn new skills and develop new areas of expertise
The amount of stories about the Chinese illegal foreign police stations that have broke over the past couple of days is really interesting. The clampdown on illegal foreign police stations seems as if it was either coordinated, or there was an inciting incident that persuaded other governments that they had to act. Secondly, what becomes apparent from the coverage is that governments were aware about them for a while, but chose to do nothing. The mainstream media lack of coverage made China critics look like paranoid cranks when they discussed Chinese illegal foreign police stations in their countries. There is a contrast between the British military Operation Motorman to stop what they perceived as the illegal provisional IRA policing of ‘Free Derry’ and the current handling of illegal foreign police stations set up by the Chinese.
I think that one of the reasons why illegal foreign police stations hasn’t been covered well by mainstream media is that they didn’t want to give credence to coverage by media that are right of centre like Fox News.
China
US think tank CSIS shares expert thought on the 20th Party Congress.
China’s limitless presidency means limited diplomacy | Financial Times – … Chinese diplomats find it disconcertingly easy to revert to behaviour that could be seen as bullying. This confirms the suspicion that European governments have of the Communist party: that it is becoming more brazen. A certain school of Chinese nationalism says that the west is set on containing China’s rise at all costs — and that, as a result, Beijing may as well conduct external relations for internal consumption. Yet European alliances are still in China’s grasp, and many of its own objectives, from technological upgrading to climate action, can only be achieved with a wide range of allies and Video before Hu Jintao’s exit from congress puts files in focus – Nikkei Asia
German exporters rethink €100bn ‘love affair’ with China | Financial Times – Competition — fair and otherwise — remains a problem. “Our members know that every technology they bring into China, in a relatively short time, will be part of the Chinese market,” said Ulrich Ackermann, head of foreign trade at the VDMA. “We say, be aware you can be kicked out in a short time.” Ackermann spoke of a German manufacturer of construction machinery, whose state-owned Chinese rival sent machines to customers, free for use for the first year. “How can we compete with that?” – This has been the standard playbook for decades. Huawei won telecoms because of state bank vendor financing at negative interest rates, not superior technology and certainly not superior reliability. What took the Germans so long to catch on? I suspect it was the outsized political impact that a few large companies have on German policies versus the middle sized companies that actually drive exports, German employment and prosperity.
Hong Kong Policy Address: How much of John Lee’s maiden speech was old wine in new bottles? – Hong Kong Free Press HKFP – Hong Kong has experienced a mass outflow of residents since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic and the implementation of the national security law. The previous administration disputed the scale of the exodus, with Lam attributing it to the suspension of quarantine-free travel with mainland China, saying that the number of One-Way Permit holders coming into Hong Kong had significantly decreased. Lee, who has been pressured to stop the exodus of talent from the city, acknowledged the trend for the first time on Wednesday, admitting that the local workforce had shrunk by 140,000 people over the last two years. Lee had previously rejected the use of the term “emigration wave” to describe the city’s recent and dramatic population decline. While Lam said that she did not want the government to be asking citizens to stay, Lee presented a series of proposals on Wednesday, ranging from new visa schemes to stamp duty cuts, designed explicitly to attract talent. – even the talent attraction proposals won’t make much difference, looking for people only from the world’s top 100 universities and earning at least $318,000 per year. That isn’t going to plug education, healthcare and social care staff gaps. It won’t fill much of the many financial services opportunities either, nor multinational regional hubs
Ideas
Adam Curtis on the collapse of the Soviet Union and modern Russia. His commentary on Brexit is spot on.
Smiles in Profiles: Improving Fairness and Efficiency Using Estimates of User Preferences in Online Marketplaces
Forbidden Questions – Marginal REVOLUTION – asks some interesting questions around science, innovation and politics. On the Flipside you have communism’s examples of bad science as an exemplar of what can go wrong when politics frames scientific exploration and ideas
I was fired from NYU after students complained that the class was too hard. Who’s next? – The Boston Globe – What is overwhelmingly important is the chilling effect of such intervention by administrators on teaching overall and especially on untenured professors. Can a young assistant professor, almost all of whom are not protected by tenure, teach demanding material? Dare they give real grades? Their entire careers are at the peril of complaining students and deans who seem willing to turn students into nothing more than tuition-paying clients.
China’s wealthy activate escape plans as Xi Jinping extends rule | Financial Times and as an interesting counterpoint: Asian art and luxury buying boom | Financial Times – At one level, it is a worldwide trend. From fine art to fine wine, luxury-sector companies have bounced back from the depths of the pandemic as their super-rich customers have, so far, been largely immune to global inflation and economic turmoil. After its worst decline on record in 2020, the global personal luxury goods market grew last year to reach €288bn in value, up 7 per cent on 2019, according to consultancy Bain. It says 2022 began with a further healthy rise. In Hong Kong, though, the picture has been quite distinctive, with some of the super-rich spending locally while others have moved abroad, joining an exodus of more than 153,000 residents since the beginning of 2021. The territory has recorded a 14 per cent drop in the number of millionaires in 2022 compared with last year (that is, people with at least $1mn in liquid assets, according to residency advisory firm Henley & Partners). With about 125,100 millionaires out of a population of 7.3mn, the city fell by four places to 12th globally for the number of high-net-worth individuals – building imperial palaces while China becomes redder…
Second-hand Rolexes: watch out for stupid prices and superfakes | Financial Times – the FT blames millennials who started collecting watches when they couldn’t go on holiday during COVID. I think that the causes are multi-variant. Luxury brands have looked at and learned from streetwear ‘drop’ business models exemplified by the likes of Supreme and Nike’s SNKR app. Secondly, the market might moderate a bit when Rolex realises that there isn’t so much of a demand in China post the 20th party congress. I haven’t paid crazy money like what you’ve described for a pre-owned Rolex, but everyone of my watches original warrant cards have a (mainland) Chinese family name on them. Buying via the verified service on eBay at least reduces the risk of buying an overpriced real, rather than super fake Rolex. I think we should be thankful for small mercies that it didn’t go into meme stocks or OneCoin analogues.
Chinese censors alter ending of Minions: The Rise of Gru film | China | The Guardian – DuSir, a film review publisher with 14.4 million followers on Weibo, noted that the Chinese version ran one minute longer than the international one, and questioned why the extra time was needed. “It’s only us who need special guidance and care for fear that a cartoon will ‘corrupt’ us,” DuSir wrote. Huaxia Film Distribution and China Film Co, the film’s distributors in China, did not respond to a request for comment
Hit film Return to Dust has vanished from China’s cinemas. Why? | Financial Times – “In the beginning,” she says, “Return to Dust attracted almost no attention. An art-house film about poverty among rural peasants? Honestly, neither the government nor mainstream Chinese audiences would normally care.” But then came several fateful quirks of timing. Over the summer, an online short, Second Uncle, became a Chinese viral hit, telling the story of a kindly rural carpenter. On social media, the little-known Return to Dust was mooted as a companion piece. From such small acorns sprang word-of-mouth success. Week by week, the movie built an audience – it might be the government, it could also be forces in the domestic media scene as big budget Chinese films don’t need competition stealing their ability to pay back investments
From East Berlin to Beijing, surveillance goes in circles | Financial Times – Last month, the Stasi HQ hosted a Berlin Biennale seminar on the “Digital Divide”, where panellists discussed the ways in which old, disproved theories are recycled in modern surveillance. Shazeda Ahmed, a post-doctorate at Princeton University, described the rise of emotion recognition technology in China. Parents have pressured schools there to give up emotion recognition in classrooms, but some police forces are investing in the technology, hoping that a person’s movements and gestures can signal their propensity to commit a crime. Such methods fall under the umbrella of “predictive policing”, but they are dangerously unproven. Academics doubt whether gestures can be analysed as discrete events that carry the same meaning from person to person. Speaking at the Biennale, digital rights lawyer Ramak Molavi gave a historical perspective, comparing emotion-recognition trends today to phrenology and physiognomy, the ideas that a person’s skull shape and facial features indicate their character. Molavi described how the ideas had been discredited, but enjoyed a renaissance during the Nazi regime – this isn’t the first time that science and ideology have led each other up the garden path
Taipei urbanism – by Noah Smith – Noahpinion – I had a disorienting sense of being back in Japan — so much so that I kept expecting people to drive on the left side of the street. So much of the infrastructure in Taiwan looks and feels Japanese — the pavement, the building materials, the signs at the airport. People cite this as a residue of the colonial period, but given that the colonial period ended 77 years ago, it’s probably more due to Taiwanese architects, urban planners, and engineers continuing to look to Japan for inspiration. After a few minutes, however, the sense of Japan-ness faded, crowded out by two key features of the Taipei landscape: lush greenery and shabby building facades
Mobileye is an Israeli based business acquired by Intel. It specialises in advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) and autonomous driving. Its EyeQ series chips are used by pretty much every volume car manufacturer. I don’t know if the US sanctions on China for semiconductors will impact Mobileye negatively. The Mobileye EyeQ debuted in 2008 in the BMW 7 series alongside the model’s first hybrid power plant, the first turbocharged petrol engine for the model series and the first time that it had used four-wheel drive. Modern semi-autonomous functions may require several Mobileye EyeQ processors in the one car.
Acquisition by Intel for EyeQ tech
Mobileye went public in 2014 and was acquired by Intel in 2017. The same year Mobileye published a mathematical model for safe self-driving cars. In January, Intel announced plans to retake Mobileye public with a sale of a minority stake of the business.
There’s a number of good arguments for the Intel move:
It allows engineers to be rewarded based on their work rather than on the overall group performance through Mobileye stock grants or stock options.
It allows the company to spread the risk of autonomous driving as a future area that might not take off. While ADAS services are here and valued, there are technological, legal, regulatory and consumer hurdles for autonomous driving to overcome:
Mobileye public offering represents trouble at Intel
However, the Mobileye public offering makes a lot less sense given the decline of the stock market since the start of 2022. It implies that Intel is desperate for a capital infusion, presumably to fund the rebuild of Intel’s technological prowess under Pat Gelsinger.
More content related to issues like self driving cars can be found here.
Islamic State Rhetoric Targets China | Foreign Policy – The linking of Chinese imperialism to historical Western colonialism in Central and South Asia to some extent echoes contemporary Indian discourse on the contentious China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. Rising Chinese economic expansion via the BRI is especially perceived as a threat to the West’s global dominance, which has also been challenged by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the potential U.S.-China conflict over Taiwan. Amid the chaos in a transition from a unipolar to a bipolar world order, the Islamic State-Khorasan sees an opportunity to establish the Islamic State’s global caliphate. – I can’t see China getting cooperation from western countries or even India on this. Pakistan has proven itself to be an inconsistent unreliable partner over the decades and Russia has its focus elsewhere. Consider in concert with: China Blocks Polish Delegation’s Flight to Korea – The Chosun Ilbo – There was no explanation from Beijing for the tantrum, but Poland is among the most vociferous Eastern European countries and NATO members seeking to increase armaments due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and China seems to be siding with Putin. – interesting that the paper thinks this is aimed at Poland. This looks like a nail in the coffin for BRI and European market access for China
Shang-Yi Chiang says he will never return to work in China | DigiTimes – Mr Chiang is a star in semiconductor development and formerly worked at TSMC and had been a vice chairman of Chinese manufacturer SMIC. He was a key signifier for Taiwanese engineers that the Chinese businesses were good to work for. His leaving SMIC and this assertion about China will hurt China’s efforts to catch up and surpass, you can’t overstate the impact of Mr Chiang’s coming out and saying this
The Financial Times is the only UK newspaper that could have this honest discussion on Brexit. Interesting that political parties still can’t engage with the issue from an economic point-of-view. The anger and unrest that could break out if parties did engage with it could be devastating.
Yahoo Finance Tech newsletter with Daniel Howley | The pandemic rubber band is hitting the tech industry. – The recent bad news in the tech industry could be a delayed blow from the pandemic. Interest rate hikes, inflation hovering at 40-year highs, and sinking demand are hitting tech companies that have benefited from two years of pandemic-driven growth that saw valuations for some companies eclipse the $2 trillion mark. “As we entered the pandemic, everybody was afraid that there were going to be these disastrous layoffs and it was going to be horrible. And there were, very briefly, in a few places…but that immediately turned around,” TECHnalysis president and chief analyst Bob O’Donnell told Yahoo Finance. “In a weird way, it almost feels like now we’re getting some of the impact of the pandemic after the fact,” he added. “I think people are recognizing they maybe overextended their hiring when they expected some of the growth that happened during the pandemic to continue in the tech industry.
The Omnipotence of China’s Xi Jinping: “Chairman of Everything” – DER SPIEGEL – his influence extends all the way to Germany. For companies like Volkswagen or Mercedes, China is the key sales market. In early November, Olaf Scholz will be traveling to Beijing for the first time as German chancellor, and despite the ongoing debate about the German economy’s unsustainable dependence on China, he will likely bring along a significant delegation of German executives – what’s interesting is the vulnerability and fragility that Der Spiegel notes in their own country’s political and business elites. Add to this idea, the current debate over Hamburg: EU warned Germany against approving Chinese investment in port – Handelsblatt | Reuters – The European Commission warned the German government last spring not to approve an investment by China’s Cosco into Hamburg’s port, German daily Handelsblatt reported on Friday, citing sources. Shipping giant Cosco last year made a bid to take a 35% stake in one of three terminals in Germany’s largest port in the northern city of Hamburg. Germany’s ruling coalition is divided over whether to approve the investment, government sources say, even as Beijing urges Berlin not to politicize the bid and the port authority warns this could hurt the economy
Screening of Batman film scrapped after Hong Kong censors say it is ‘not appropriate’ for outdoor showing – Hong Kong Free Press HKFP – The Dark Knight banned under Hong Kong’s Film Censorship Ordinance, organisers of movies screenings are required to submit works to the Office for Film, Newspaper and Article Administration (OFNAA) for film classification and clearance. Films must meet criteria relating to depictions of violence, cruelty and offensive language or behaviour. Since the passing of the national security law, censorship has been tightened to require authorities to evaluate whether the exhibition of a film would be “contrary to the interests of national security.” – presumably interests of national security includes a plot where Batman comes to Hong Kong to pursue an enemy, a corrupt Chinese businessman who laundered money for a mafia group. Just waiting for commercial disputes to be ruled ‘contrary to the interests of national security’ and the banking sector get screwed over
Hong Kong court allows media tycoon Jimmy Lai to hire UK lawyer for national security trial – Hong Kong Free Press HKFP – The judge ruled on Wednesday that issues which would arise during the trial, such as how the national security law and the sedition law should be understood in relation to freedom of expression, were “of great general public importance.” – what’s of more interest is the reasons why the Hong Kong government opposed his appointment. A lack of alternative counsel wasn’t seen as a reason to bring in the British lawyer. They described the case as lacking complexity as an additional reason – however it will be interesting to see if they view it as being sufficiently complex to move to the mainland when Owen becomes involved… and National security: Hong Kong court allows police to search journalistic materials stored on Jimmy Lai’s phones – Hong Kong Free Press HKFP – “Although always subject to the protection and procedural safeguards based on public interest and vigilant judicial scrutiny, journalistic material is not immune from search and seizure in the investigation of any criminal offence,” the judgement read. “As a matter of principle, the same must be true for offences endangering national security.” Excluding journalistic materials from the definition of “specified evidence” would also reduce the effectiveness of police investigation and prevent the national security law from serving its legislative purpose, which was to “effectively” stop, prevent, and punish offences endangering national security, the judges wrote.
Great video from Asianometry on the history of field programmable gate array.
Japan
Toyota Starts Plant in Junta-Led Myanmar Over a Year After Coup – WSJ – Toyota began assembling one or two Hilux pickup trucks a day at its plant in Yangon last month, a spokeswoman for the Japanese auto maker said Wednesday. She said Toyota wanted to contribute to the industrial development of Myanmar and the livelihood of local employees and their families. The car maker’s decision to begin production in Myanmar highlights a divide among foreign companies over whether to withdraw from the country, whose elected government was ousted in February 2021. As of the beginning of this year, close to two dozen major foreign companies had decided to suspend business operations in Myanmar, including energy giants Chevron Corp. and TotalEnergies SE and Japanese beer maker Kirin Holdings Co., according to the World Bank. Toyota had previously been included on that list. Companies suspending operations have cited shareholder pressure and a worsening human-rights situation among other reasons. Some activists have pushed companies to pull out of Myanmar to isolate or bankrupt the military junta – sounds more like assembly of knock down kits, likely coming in from Thailand
Korea
Kakao co-CEO Whon Namkoong quits over South Korea app outage chaos | SCMP – while its being described as a fire, it might not be an accident. The Koreans are still investigating. What’s more shocking is that there was one chokepoint of failure in a single data centre which took out both Naver and KakaoDaum services
Marketing
Tough times and low confidence call for bold action | WPP – When economic indicators are tough and consumer confidence is low, remember that brands with strong value propositions are 100% more recommended and 91% more loved than the rest, says WPP’s Lindsay Pattison We are in uncharted waters – consumers and businesses alike. Inflation has spiked, interest rates are on the up, the impacts of war are unknowable, and the OECD’s Consumer Confidence Index
The Return of Industrial Warfare | Royal United Services Institute read in conjunction with: Chokepoints – Center for Security and Emerging Technology – China’s most acute “chokepoints” are technologies—particularly high-end electronic components and specialized steel alloys—dominated by one or a handful of companies based in the United States or other like-minded democracies. Rather than playing for the “national team,” Chinese companies—both private and state-owned—often prioritize their brands and bottom lines over marching in lockstep with Beijing’s industrial policies. Many PRC firms choose to buy vital high-end components from trusted foreign suppliers because they harbor doubts about the quality of goods provided by domestic vendors. Technological breakthroughs made by Chinese universities and research institutes frequently fail to find commercial applications, leaving the PRC market dominated by foreign products.
Australia investigates claims China tried to hire former military pilots | South China Morning Post – Australia’s Defence Minister Richard Marles said he had asked the defence department to investigate claims that former Australian military pilots had also been recruited to join a South African flight school that operated in China. “I would be deeply shocked and disturbed to hear that there were personnel who were being lured by a pay check from a foreign state above serving their own country,” Marles said in a statement. “I have asked the department to investigate these claims and come back to my office with clear advice on this matter.” and Britain and Australia plan steps to stop China hiring their pilots — Radio Free Asia
Mid afternoon Sunday saw an incident outside and inside the Manchester Chinese consulate. The Manchester Chinese consulate caters for the second largest Chinese community in the UK. Manchester airport before COVID had direct flights to China and Hong Kong. Given the large British Chinese population in the area, it also has a community of Hong Kongers who desire democracy.
My understanding of what happened:
Chinese diplomats didn’t want a protest right outside the Manchester Chinese consulate
On the first day of the party congress at home in Beijing, some staff emerged from the consulate wearing anti-stab vests and riot police helmets to smash protestor banners and drive them away. Police were slow to intervene
Protesters defended themselves
The Manchester Chinese consulate staff retreated to their grounds including the Consul General who has been out walking.
A protestor was dragged through their gates and given a beating, he was eventually extracted by police belatedly reacting to the fight
The Consul General was seen pulling the hair of the protestor as well and later admitted it
johnlsl Extradition law Protest at Admiralty, Hong Kong 反送中大遊行(金鐘段)
Business
Pfizer Executive: in-Person Work Is ‘Critical’ to Workplace Culture – Nearly 2 years after the company helped to develop the Covid vaccine, Pfizer’s Angela Hwang said it’s time to get back to the office. Though many worked from home during the vaccine’s development, Pfizer’s culture was “banked” from years of in-person work, she said. Some companies have recently faced backlash for requiring in-person work. – Not so sure how well this will go for them.
We want food, not PCR tests. We want freedom, not lockdowns. We want respect, not lies. We want reform, not a Cultural Revolution. We want a vote, not a leader. We want to be citizens, not slaves
I know that the Elvis memorabilia dropped massively in price as his fans went into care homes or died off. Antiques and art go through cycles of ‘what’s in’ and out for that matter. Doug DeMuro asks a similar question about car collecting baby boomers. A lot of this is down to cultural relevance for collectors. DeMuro notes that ‘brass era’ cars from the 1910s onwards have already seen declines in price and demands.
The Covid-19 Baby Bump: The Unexpected Increase in U.S. Fertility Rates in Response to the Pandemic | NBER – Childbearing in the U.S. among foreign-born mothers declined immediately after lockdowns began—nine months too soon to reflect the pandemic’s effects on conceptions. We also find that the COVID pandemic resulted in a small “baby bump” among U.S.-born mothers. The 2021 baby bump is the first major reversal in declining U.S. fertility rates since 2007 and was most pronounced for first births and women under age 25, which suggests the pandemic led some women to start their families earlier. Above age 25, the baby bump was also pronounced for women ages 30-34 and women with a college education, who were more likely to benefit from working from home. The data for California track the U.S. data closely and suggest that U.S. births remained elevated through the third quarter of 2022
Letter from Hong Kong Advocacy Groups: U.S. Financial Institutions’ Planned Hong Kong Summit Will Undermine U.S. Foreign Policy – executives will meet with sanctioned government officials including Chief Executive John Lee as they help Hong Kong convince the world that it’s business as usual in the city—that despite the authoritarian crackdown of the past three years, investors should return. This financial summit is more than just a conference: it represents a watershed moment in our fight to hold Hong Kong officials accountable and deter others across the world who might seek to snuff out democratic rights and commit human rights abuses. If the U.S. Government takes no action to prevent even its own banks from undermining U.S. policy with respect to Hong Kong, then it will send a message to the world that the U.S. does not intend to defend the principles it espouses. Investment will return to the city, and the Hong Kong government, the CCP, and other authoritarian regimes will learn that human rights abuses are easily forgotten by the West—especially when lots of money is involved
Global cities are fragile by nature. Here are some on their way down | Financial Times – China’s Communist party distrusts global cities. It’s crushing Hong Kong, and people are fleeing. When a marquee 800-flat project opened last month, zero apartments sold. Hong Kong, fifth on Kearney’s global-city ranking in 2019, is regressing into what some call “just another Chinese city”. Beijing and Shanghai, among Kearney’s top 10 last year, have also lost access to the world, supposedly because of quarantine restrictions. Last month, China averaged about 100 international flights a day, down 96 per cent since 2020, says Variflight. After this week’s party congress, these cities may become global again, or perhaps those days are over
Clarifying Responsible Cyber Power: Developing Views in the U.K. Regarding Non-intervention and Peacetime Cyber Operations – Lawfare – the U.K. government’s strategic communication about cyber has included prominent speeches by successive foreign secretaries and attorneys general, as well as by senior securocrats such as the GCHQ director. This division of effort in the public communication about U.K. strategy makes sense, incorporating senior political leaders with responsibility for foreign policy and the law as well as leading securocrats who, as career officials rather than politicians, speak with a different kind of authority and independence from partisan politics. Cumulatively, this helps to advance the U.K.’s emerging narrative about the responsible, democratic use of cyber power by nation-states. Fleming’s remarks also emphasized that the U.K.’s cyber operations were “ethical, proportionate and legal.” As a proponent of responsible state behavior in cyberspace, it is not surprising that the U.K. twice (in 2018 and 2022) has used a major speech by its attorney general to develop the legal aspects of the case for responsible cyber power
Former WSJ reporter says law firm used Indian hackers to sabotage his career – Solomon’s suit is the latest in a series of legal actions that follows Reuters’ reporting about hired hackers operating out of India. In June, Reuters reported on the activities of several hack-for-hire shops, including Delhi area-companies BellTroX and CyberRoot, that were involved in a decade-long series of espionage campaigns targeting thousands of people, including more than 1,000 lawyers at 108 different law firms. At the time, Reuters reported that people who had become hacking targets while involved in at least seven different lawsuits had each launched their own inquiries into the cyberespionage campaign. That number has since grown. Azima, Solomon’s former source, is among those who have gone to court over the alleged hacking. His lawyers, like Solomon’s, allege that Dechert worked with BellTroX, CyberRoot and a slew of private investigators to steal his emails and publish them to the web. BellTroX and CyberRoot are not parties to the suit and could not immediately be reached. Executives at both firms have previously denied wrongdoing. Solomon and Azima allege that Dechert undertook the hack-and-leak operation in the interest of its client, Sheikh Saud bin Saqr al-Qasimi, ruler of the Middle Eastern emirate of Ras Al Khaimah. Reuters has reported that lawyers for Ras Al Khaimah’s investment agency – RAKIA – used the emails to help win a fraud lawsuit filed against Azima in London in 2016
American technology boosts China’s hypersonic missile program – The Washington Post – “In this case the American technology is superior — we can’t do certain things without foreign technology,” said one Chinese scientist who works in a university lab that conducts testing for hypersonic vehicles. “There isn’t the same technical foundation.” Some of the U.S. firms whose products are reaching Chinese military research groups have been the beneficiaries of Defense Department grants to spur cutting-edge innovation, according to a federal program database, creating the specter of the Pentagon subsidizing Chinese military advances. “It’s very disturbing, because the bottom line is that technology that can be used for military hypersonics was funded by U.S. taxpayers, through the U.S. government, and ended up in China,” – war by other means….
Interesting take on how Singapore will evolve with a transition of power happening in Singapore away from the Lee family who have dominated the city state since independence.
Taiwan
Really good presentation on the international importance of Taiwan. Its not just about TSMC but also about the global supply lines that run through Taiwanese waters
