Category: luxury | 奢華 | 사치 | 贅沢

Over the space of 20 years, luxury changed enormously. The Japanese had been a set of new consumers for luxury, but in terms of numbers they hadn’t eclipsed the US as the biggest market for luxury.

China’s ascent into the WTO (World Trade Organisation) made a lot of business people and politicians a lot richer. China challenged the US in terms of luxury market size. On their rise, Chinese consumers changed a lot in their sophistication as they educated themselves on luxury consumption.

These new consumers picked up new traits such as wine drinking. This also meant that luxury goods became new asset classes as Chinese money looked to acquire only the best. Chinese culture in turn impacted luxury design. Chinese new year became more important than Christmas.

Then there was the second generation money. Young rather than old consumers. Consumers who were looking for something less formal, either because they didn’t wear anything but streetwear or they worked in the creative classes rather than the traditional professions and high finance.

The industry had traditionally avoided rap artists and R&B singers, now Jay Z and Beyonce are the face of Tiffanys and Fendi had collaborated with Rihanna.

They no longer wanted to have to wear a jacket and tie to have afternoon tea at the Mandarin. They took an eclectic look more attuned to the Buffalo Collective than Vogue Italia.

You had hybridisation with the street to create a new category of luxe streetwear in a way that also owes a debt to football casual terrace wear and the pain.

Now you have Zegna badge engineering approach shoes from alpine brand La Sportiva and Prada has done a similar thing with adidas’ iconic Stan Smith tennis shoes. Balenciaga with their Speed Sock looks like a mix between Nike’s flyknit football boots and the Nike Footscape sole.

As I have written elsewhere on this blog:

Luxury has traditionally reflected status. Goods of a superior nature that the ‘wrong sort’ of people would never be able to afford. Luxury then became a symbol that you’d made it. In Asian markets, particularly China, luxury became a tool. People gifted luxury products to make relationships work better. It also signified that you are the kind of successful business person that partners could trust. You started to see factory managers with Gucci man bags and premium golfwear to signal their success. Then when the scions of these business people and figures in authority were adults, luxury has become about premium self expression.

  • Wonderlust Apple event

    The Apple Wonderlust event happened on September 12, 2023. The events timing fitted in with the two Apple events a year that we have grown to expect:

    • Worldwide Developers Conference – in June.
    • Autumn event in September / October.

    Unlike when I started buying Apple products these events are no longer hosted at external conference centres but at Apple’s own conference centre as part of its campus. For the past decade and a half Apple hasn’t participated at wider trade shows, in the same way that the likes of Samsung or Microsoft would at CES.

    Wonderlust iPhone 15 pro
    Apple Inc.

    Apple events from the late 1990s onwards built their reputation for being great live performances by Steve Jobs and the management team. COVID-19 seems to have allowed Apple to move to a pre-recorded keynote that the media and general public watch together either in person or streamed online, followed by the media being allowed to get hands on with the products.

    This allows for a polished event presentation, all-be-it one that might be out of touch with its audience. More on that later.

    Is wonderlust even a word?

    A quick look at dictionaries offline and online kept bringing up results for wonderlust – the hankering to travel. That was until I hit Urban Dictionary that categorised wonderlust this way:

    the desire to be in a constant state of wonder
    Joe had a serious case of wonderlust: he was bored of anything ordinary.

    There were other definitions, but I think that they were outside the scope of where Apple wanted to go.

    TL;DR

    If you’ve bought an Apple product in the past three years there weren’t any ‘must buy’ products showcased in the Wonderlust event. Your iPhone and Apple Watch will still be good enough and benefit from this years upgraded OS. If you have a device over three years old then upgrading to the new products is worth considering.

    Apple still hasn’t jumped on the folding screen bandwagon that Samsung has. Given that we don’t see question-and-answer sessions that Steve Jobs sometimes indulged us with we don’t know the definitive ‘why’ yet.

    The meh moments

    There was more to criticise in this Apple events than other recent ones.

    USB-C as a benefit

    The reality is that in order for Apple to sell in the European Union it has had to move the iPhone and AirPods to a USB-C connection, away from the the Lightning connector. Apple tried to play this off as an improvement that they’d made to their phones, but the reality is that it was a change forced upon Apple.

    Cringeworthy ESG update

    Part of the pre-recorded content was a skit where Mother Nature turns up at Apple HQ for a meeting with the team about improvements in their environmental record. The problem was that the film was out of touch with the audience and has been roundly criticised.

    For five minutes, we had the same thing over and over. It might be about materials one moment and packaging the next, but it was a single gag stretched out too far.

    It was stretched so thin that you could see the thinking behind it. Every single element was good by itself, and no one would cut anything. 

    But the result is that every single element was undermined by the repetition. And instead of Apple showing it was better than just sell-sell-sell videos, the result was that the sketch felt like padding in an event that’s like drinking tech data from a fire hose.

    AppleInsider – Apple’s ‘Mother Nature’ sketch was a complete dud, and didn’t belong in the iPhone 15 event

    I do think it went on too long — the whole segment (sketch plus details) in fact was just 10 minutes long, not 20. But seemingly everyone, including me, felt like it lasted 20 minutes, which is never a good sign.

    Daring Fireball (John Gruber) – Thoughts and Observations on This Week’s ‘Wonderlust’ Apple Event

    There were some good points highlighted:

    • Recycled materials usage. There were also claims made about leather usage, but these only applied to Hermés straps sold within Apple’s own retail channels.
    • Taking plastic out of packaging. Apple has been minimising packaging by taking items out of the box (iPhone earphones, iPhone charger being two high profile examples). But now it’s taking plastic out of packaging as well. Its able to do this due to control of all aspects of its manufacturing process and packaging re-engineering. This is also pleasing to Apple shareholders. Given that Apple’s packaging is bought at scale, decreased materials usage and size means less risk of damage and reduced cost of manufacture & transport – any increased cost in design and packaging development will be amortised across millions of units. You see a similar benefit in Apple’s product materials as well such as aluminium laptop chassis.
    • Carbon offset for energy used not only in the manufacture of Apple Watch, but also throughout their expected life.
    • A move towards more ocean freight to reduce logistics carbon footprint, compared to air travel. This will have had a direct impact on the flexibility and responsiveness of Apple’s global supply chain, particularly custom specified products like non-standard MacBook Pro configurations.

    Apple still has a lot of problems however and here are three of the biggest:

    • With the exception of the Apple Pro, Mac models can no longer be upgraded, which reduces reparability and product life.
    • AirPods can’t be repaired, only thrown away. This is a problem for the wireless earbud category in general, but Apple are a leading player in the market and can set the the tone in the market through innovation.
    • The very nature of Apple’s business could be considered to drive excessive consumption. In sharp contrast, one of the traditional reasons why one owned a Mac was that you got a computer that was useful for longer. I am currently using a couple of Apple Thunderbolt displays that are between 8 and 12 years old. Prior to the iPhone I was using Macs that may have been eight years old by the time that i parted company with them.

    Incremental product improvements

    The announcements would have felt like tweaks for consumers. Apple Watches got more powerful processors for the first time. The iPhone Pro titanium frame would marginally reduce the weight of the handset. Apple has previously used titanium in laptops between 2001 and 2003, so the material isn’t completely new to the brand. The camera can create video and photography with depth for the Apple Vision Pro. Camera performance with darker skin tones has been improved to match Google Pixel driven innovation. But battery life is ‘about the same’ as previous generations.

    Many of the software improvements including live stickers are likely to be be in the iOS upgrade available to previous generations of phones.

    Ok, so what if anything was interesting about the event?

    There were three things that while they wouldn’t make me want to go out and buy a new device are still important developments, based on the direction that they are taking Apple products.

    Service integration

    Apple iPhone is moving beyond emergency satellite text services to breakdown care via satellite as well. It’s interesting that Apple is continuing to go beyond cellular. It is starting to look like the kind of differentiation Vertu used to enjoy with its single button concierge service. It supports the viewpoint that Apple is a luxury adjacent, if not luxury brand.

    Mechanical engineering on the iPhone camera

    Apple has managed to cram in a lens with an equivalent focal length of 77mm into the iPhone 15 Pro through a novel prismatic lens design. The device also uses a similar mechanism design to that used on Pentax DSLRs to compensate for device shake. The titanium frame probably provides additional rigidity for this system to work to its full potential. However the weight loss of the device might drive increased shake so there is a careful calibration in choices that the engineering team made.

    On-device machine learning

    The Apple Watch had redesigned silicon to move machine learning from the cloud or iPhone device on to the Watch itself. This improves response time, but also points to a move of taking large language model systems and neural networks out of the cloud and on to the device. Given that the watch also features ultra wideband wireless connectivity, it’s an especially interesting choice decoupling the watch from the iPhone.

    More Apple-related content here.

  • Deluxe – how luxury lost it’s lustre

    I had this copy of Deluxe on my shelf for a while and finally managed got round to reading it. Deluxe – how luxury lost its lustre was written by Dana Thomas. Dana knows the subject that she’s talking about.

    Deluxe by Dana Thomas

    Dana Thomas

    Dana Thomas is a Paris-based journalist who covered the fashion industry. Thomas started her journalistic career writing for the ‘style’ section of The Washington Post. For a decade and a half Thomas was a cultural and fashion correspondent for Newsweek in Paris. She has contributed to The New York Times, The New Yorker, The Wall Street Journal, the Financial Times, Vogue, Harper’s Bazaar and Architectural Digest. Deluxe is one of three books that she has written, the other is Fashionopolis, which focuses on the fast fashion industry and Gods and Kings covered the career of fashion designers Alexander McQueen and John Galliano.

    Deluxe – How Luxury Lost its Lustre

    In the introduction starts with a scatter gun approach. She bemoans Gucci and Burberry factory seconds on sale in China, revealing the global supply chain used by luxury brands now. She also criticises that luxury goods are used as currency by some sex workers from compensated dating to ‘returning gifts’ and pocketing the difference minus a restocking fee.

    I get the sense that Thomas would like to see these companies remain small ‘secrets’ only known by a cosmopolitan cognoscenti, obviously including herself. What my younger peers would call ‘gatekeeping’ in a derogatory way.

    Parasite singles

    Most of Thomas’ ire focuses on Louis Vuitton early on. She describes Bernard Arnaud in unflattering terms and makes the globalisation of the brand sound like a mix of a happy accident and opportunity. Along the way she critiques the weakness of Japanese society’s love for luxury goods down to subtle social signalling and ‘parasite singles’ – young women living at home with their parents who spend their disposable income on luxury goods.

    (The reality is that could be young people with a job in Spain or Italy either as east Asians and Southern Europeans tend to only move out of home to marry or to follow work or education.)

    Japanese tourists took their luxury shopping abroad, taking advantage of duty-free shopping. It’s no coincidence that LVMH owns DFS (Duty Free Shopping) outlets across America and the Pacific rim. Some of the lessons that DFS and LVMH learned selling to Japanese luxury buyers, such last late closing, you can still see in showrooms across the Asia Pacific region.

    Jumping from Japanese duty free shoppers in Hawaii, Thomas moves on to the connection between a generation of Italian designers and Hollywood. Richard Gere’s star power was as much down to his styling making him look the part by Giorgio Armani as it was to his considerable acting prowess.

    From Hollywood, the book delves into the perfume operations of the design houses. It highlights how perfume formulation moved from being an in-house activity for design houses to being outsourced to a few specialists companies who work with a ‘creative brief’.

    Quality issues

    The area where I can agree most with Thomas is around the decline in quality of luxury goods. Deluxe approaches this from the different tactics that luxury companies have used to conceal their use of Chinese factories. However as Apple has shown, made in China doesn’t necessarily mean cheap or poorly made. Indeed, a decade and a half after Deluxe was written, we’re seeing local luxury brands displacing international luxury brands in the Chinese market for several reasons, usually explained using the term ‘guo chao‘.

    Thomas estimates that there at least four factories in China who manufacture most of the luxury industry’s handbags and leather goods – alongside private label brands for department stores and supermarkets. I was surprised that even back in 2004, manufacturing in China only saved 30 percent of the bill of materials.

    The book goes on to cover the cost cutting that has gone into luxury products, from clothes with cheap stitching, skipped tailoring such as no lining in jackets and dresses. Thomas highlights that these changes happened to allow luxury to go mass market. Luxury then followed customers out of the office or the salon into all aspects of their life including sportswear and ‘streetwear’. What my friend Jeremy calls the ‘Supremification’ of luxury.

    The reliance on the mass market bought about two challenges in Thomas’ eyes:

    • Counterfeit products that are almost indistinguishable from the real thing by experts
    • Rockier finances for the large luxury corporates who are no longer sheltered from economic cycles by the continued spending of ultra high net worth individuals.

    The future

    Thomas left us with two parts to what we saw the future of luxury looking like:

    • The continued pursuit of emerging markets with India replacing China due to demographics.
    • The new luxury of industry specialists spinning off and creating new houses, because they were jaded with the existing business practices and structures. The book highlights Tom Ford; who recently gave up his label and sold it on in November 2022 to cosmetics business Estée Lauder and fellow fashion house Ermenegildo Zegna.

    In summary

    Dana Thomas’ Deluxe is a book of its time in the early to mid 2000s. Thomas clearly has some bias’ due to history with some of the protagonists, which is worthwhile bearing in mind. The historical part of the book is useful; but the luxury industry has moved on and in some ways the problems are now much worse. With those provisos in mind, I can recommend the book as a background read on the luxury sector.

    More book reviews here.

  • Bucherer

    The luxury sector was surprised by the acquisition of Bucherer AG by Rolex. Bucherer was founded in 1888 by Carl F. Bucherer. Over time, it grew to be a 100 store international network of watch and jewellery shops. In addition, the company owns a watch brand called Carl F. Bucherer. The chairman Jeorg Bucherer is the last of Bucherer family. His lack of a successor and the family’s close connection to the Rolex Foundation were given as a reasons for the sale.

    bucherer
    Bucherer in Lausanne

    Why should Bucherer sell?

    Bucherer pivoting to a sale was surprising. Part of this is down both companies being private. Neither publicly disclose finances or appear regularly in the media. We don’t know if the offer came from Rolex or if Bucherer approached Rolex with a view to sell.

    If Rolex made the first move

    If it was Rolex that made the move, then saying no would put the 100+ strong Bucherer retail showroom network at risk. While Bucherer represents 5 percent of Rolex’ global sales. Rolex means much more to Bucherer; 53 of their stores are Rolex authorised dealerships and 48 are Tudor authorised dealers. Having a Rolex franchise increases footfall and likely boosted sales of other brands in Bucherer stores.

    If Rolex were invited to make an offer

    If, like it was claimed that Bucherer’s decision was down to the lack of succession, why did Bucherer conduct a lot of activity to grow its business internationally?

    Bucherer has continued to expand its retail and service network. It reputedly spent up to $350 million buying US luxury watch retailer Tourneau five years ago.

    The Carl F. Bucherer (CFB) watch brand has put a lot of effort in terms of expanding its watch line-up, which are made in its own factory in Lengnau, Switzerland. This watch range uses some movements that are based on La Joux-Perret or ETA movements and some which seem to be complete in-house designs that look to mirror the kind of horology that the likes of Patek Philippe are better known for. A good example of this is the minute repeater below.

    Watch featuring their inhouse M3000 movement.

    The watch making side of the business has continued to design innovative movements including novel technology designs.

    The brand has worked on marketing its watches globally from a roster of Chinese and western actors as brand ambassadors, movie product placement including Deadpool 2 and the John Wick series. In 2018, they worked with JD.com to establish a watch brand-specific online storefront for the China market. Marketing activity continued through the COVID pandemic.

    At the beginning of July this year they launched a new watch model: the Heritage Chronometer Celebration in rose gold.

    This doesn’t sound like the brand was preparing for a sale due to a lack of family members to take over the reins. So why the sudden change?

    Why should Rolex buy Bucherer?

    Vertical integration?

    Bucherer apparently counted for five percent of Rolex’ global sales, but had showrooms in strategically important markets like Geneva, London, New York and Paris.

    Bucherer was the pioneer retail partner for Rolex’ CPO (certified pre-owned) programme; so their relationship was already very close. The programme was suspected to be rolled out for a number of reasons:

    • To try and deal with authorised dealers shortage of new Rolex stock, that had driven ‘watch flipping’ and allegations of corrupt sales practices at Rolex authorised dealers. If customers leave the authorised dealer network, Rolex loses control of the customer experience.
    • To allow Rolex additional profits from the inflated pre-owned watch market driven by pre-owned watch dealers catering to massively increased consumer demand.
    More on the allegations of corrupt sales practices

    While the CPO programme arrived just as the pre-owned watch market peaked (and at the time of writing its now at a two year low), it hints at the benefits to Rolex of having both circular and vertical integration.

    Buying Bucherer potentially gives Rolex 100+ owned outlets. Why would Rolex want to own its retail outlets? Let’s go back to 1977 and a seminal event in the current luxury industry history. Madame Renée Vuitton asked her son-in-law to take over the family business. Henry Racamier got under the hood of the business and found that franchisees were making the bulk of the profits. So, slowly but surely Racamier set the business on the path to vertical integration. Racamier’s only business mistake was getting involved with Bernard Arnault, who took the Racamier formula and built LVMH into the giant that it is today.

    Racamier, set a path that Audemars Piguet would eventually follow. Vertical integration would mean control and increased income for the Rolex Foundation.

    For Rolex, owning its showrooms is not without risk. The reactive statements by Rolex that the brand shops would maintain their brand and management seems to be designed to placate Swiss competition authorities. What the subsequent integration into Rolex Group operations would look like may depend on regulatory concerns.

    Swiss competition authority COMCO confirmed that was was analysing the deal. It accesses impact based on size and its possible effect to eliminate effective competition.

    Bucherer is a sales agent for much of the luxury Swiss watch industry

    • Baum & Mercier
    • Bell & Ross
    • Blancpain
    • Bregeut
    • Bulgari
    • Cartier
    • Chopard
    • Frederique Constant
    • Girard-Perregeaux
    • Hublot
    • IWC
    • Jaeger LeCoultre
    • Longines
    • Maurice Lacroix
    • Montblanc
    • Omega
    • Oris
    • Panerai
    • Piaget
    • Rado
    • Roger Dubuis
    • TAG Heuer
    • Tissot
    • Ulysse Nardin
    • Vacheron Constantin
    • Zenith

    Secondly, being a retailer and being a manufacturer is a very different business. If Rolex is going to learn about retail, it needs to spend years understanding Bucherer’s current business. Even then, there is no guarantee that it will follow the owned single brand showroom network model.

    CPO and circular economy

    The idea of the circular economy is now a big idea in the luxury sector and fits into the ‘Perpetual Planet’ tenet of the Rolex Foundation and at least part of the thinking behind the CPO programme. The idea is that a product can be serviced and or resold from its first owner to successive owners. This would require less new materials to be mined and less energy expended on the manufacturing process. The customer would end up with a product that is long-lasting and better for the planet.

    Rolex watches like the 1960s era 5513 Submariner are still worn as everyday watches and will likely outlast you and I, if they are serviced once every five years and parts replaced on an as-needed basis. Secondly, there is a premium set on authenticity – vintage items that may have already lived an interesting life. You see this desire for authenticity from fashionistas thrifting to Rolex collectors prizing COMEX and military-issued models.

    Finally, there is precedent for watchmaker participation in the circular economy; Richemont are already in the pre-owned market with their ownership of WatchFinder.

    Avoiding a retail power shift?

    Bucherer is the largest of independent privately owned Rolex authorised dealer networks. Rolex has about 2,000 outlets worldwide. If a rival or a private equity company bought Bucherer on its own, it wouldn’t be a big deal. But if the private equity buyer used Bucherer as a hub and bought up:

    • Wempe – which has a multi-country footprint (Austria, France, Germany, Spain, USA and the UK). Like Bucherer, Wempe is also a watch brand.
    • David Rosas that has a network of seven stores in Portugal.
    • Emperor Watch and Jewellery that has a footprint in Hong Kong, Macau, the Chinese mainland, Malaysia and Singapore.

    You then have a private equity run authorised dealership network that would be a substantial part of Rolex Group sales and more likely to try and dictate terms to the watch maker. Often this doesn’t work, a classic example of this is how Phones4U went under after trying to dictate terms to the mobile networks. Regardless of whether Rolex fended this off or were enthralled by the dealer network, it would be damaging for the Rolex brand, its global reach and customer experience.

    Realistically, Rolex dealers whilst profitable miss out on some of the things that private equity firms look for:

    • Huge cost-cutting potential – this might happen if you can scale to a dominant position in the Rolex dealership network and leverage it to get costs reduced. Stores tended to be staffed pretty lean already with Bucherer using one sales manager for three London showrooms. There would be limited scaling benefits for business functions.
    • Huge growth potential – maybe, but you’re still constrained by the nature of the luxury market and the complex eco-system of grey market and pre-owned specialists.
    • All of this would take time, likely longer than the 4 to 6 years that private equity investors typically look for their return. But that doesn’t rule out sovereign funds from the likes of the Gulf states.

    Taking Bucherer off the table means that the notional private equity firm would likely need to buy a larger publicly listed partner like Watches of Switzerland. This would likely cost more on a store-for-store basis and be less attractive to private equity.

    Watch servicing

    Bucherer has provided Rolex with watch servicing capability through its retail network, which gives you the high level of trust that Rolex had in the brand. Having greater service capacity would be beneficial as waiting times can take as long as six months for a Rolex service. At best this is a secondary benefit for the Rolex organisation. Purchasing it would be beneficial to prevent it falling into the hands of LVMH who have increasing ambitions in watchmaking.

    Manufacturing

    Rolex is building three temporary manufacturing units, for use until its new factory comes online in Bulle, Switzerland some six years from now. This will be the fifth Rolex-owned factory in Switzerland. The Lengnau factory would their add to the existing manufacturing capacity or offer additional capability. Lengnau manufactures a range of movements and complications with COSC chronometer certification. The question would then be, what would Rolex do with the additional manufacturing capacity and how would it fit into the Rolex system?

    In addition to manufacturing capacity, the brand brings innovation in movement design to the table from a novel balance wheel driving an automatic movement to a minute repeater movement.

    if Carl F. Bucherer were kept as a separate brand it would likely benefit from being part of Rolex’ larger materials purchases from suppliers and transfer of process technologies to further improve its own manufacturing line. Scale has its advantages.

    Rolex multi-brand strategy

    Rolex has more demand than it’s prepared to supply for its own brand watches and the brand has been moved upmarket into the luxury space by management since the 2000s. Its second brand Tudor has been reinvigorated through the use of innovative watch materials and playing on both the Rolex and Tudor brands heritage. Tudor seems to be moving into Rolex’s classic brand positioning, while Rolex moves its price and positioning even further upmarket. But both of these brands sit firmly in the tool watch space, despite Rolex being available in precious metals.

    Having a third brand would allow Rolex to move in a number of directions:

    • Have a brand that could slot in below Tudor, which the CFB Pratavi models could do.
    • Allow Tudor to go exclusively heritage in their design language. The CFB Pratavi models would represent a more contemporary looking alternative.
    • Go after the non-Rolex space of horological designs from the likes of Audemars Piguet, Blancpain, H Moser, Patek Philippe or Vacheron Constantin. Rolex hasn’t committed to going after this part of the market previously because of its Lexus-like reputation for reliability, even in their most expensive models. This could be done with the CFB Manero and Heritage ranges which have similar complications.

    Rolex has shown for decades with the Tudor brand that it was prepared to take its time, so reinventing and repositioning another watch brand isn’t out of the question.

    Watches of Switzerland

    The long squeeze?

    As news of the acquisition got out Watches of Switzerland (WoS) shares plummeted almost 30 percent. Rolex represents about 50 percent of WoS sales. So investors were concerned about the impact that this might have in the watch market.

    What if Bucherer represented, just a first move by Rolex? What if Rolex wanted to get a readymade wholly owned global footprint. Buying WoS at a depressed price would provide the ideal footprint. Porsche very nearly succeeded in a buy out of Volkswagen in 2008 that riffed on this approach.

    Like the Bucherer deal, it may receive competition scrutiny. However such an approach would likely face action from the Swiss regulator COMCO, even if the UK’s CMA didn’t step in.

    A second reason not to do an intentional long squeeze on WoS is that it might attract institutional investment from deep pocketed hedge funds and private equity firms who previously wouldn’t have looked at WoS as a target, to build a dealer network and in turn squeeze Rolex.

    Preference

    Rolex wouldn’t need to get rid of Watches of Switzerland in order to do damage to the brand. Just the perception that Bucherer had a more favoured status for Rolex availability would be enough to adversely affect footfall to its showrooms.

    This is something that could happen even if Bucherer remained an independently operated multi-brand watch retailer.

    More related content here.

  • Geico advertising + more things

    Geico advertising

    What prompted me to write about Geico advertising was a stream of news from marketing services companies about the state of technology company advertising. At the time of writing Stagwell are just the latest marketing services firm after S4, IPG, Omnicom and WPP have pinned declining profits on a reduction in technology company advertising spend. Then this story broke about Geico advertising: Insurer Geico made more money after benching its famous gecko | Quartz – and my first reaction was that the wrong lessons might be taken away from this.

    Geico

    Geico advertising – a primer

    Geico îs an unfamiliar name to most people outside of the US. If you’ve read American magazines chances are there was a print ad or two in there with their iconic Gecko spokesperson. It’s a similar case on American television.

    Geico advertising and their Gecko are as familiar to Americans as the meerkats of Comparethemarket.com are to your average Brits.

    The truth about technology marketers vs. Geico advertising

    Having worked with technology brands on and off for the past three decades, I have enough experience to know that generally, they aren’t great marketing organisations.

    Coinbase’s Super Bowl ad drove traffic to a site that fell over.
    Geico reinforced brand equity in the insurance space and pointed out their 24-hour claims hotline (I imagine that this isn’t an exclusive feature, but you wouldn’t know it from the advert).

    Growth mindset ≠ marketing mindset

    As organisations, they have a growth mindset, but not a marketing mindset. Before the internet, this meant a powerful field sales force organisation and marketing meant a bit of branding / design work coupled with case studies for the sales people. With the internet came constant iterative ‘growth hacking’ on digital channels, that mirrors agile software development rather than the best practices of marketing science.

    There is a good reason why organisations like the Ehrenberg-Bass Institute for Marketing Science are supported by FMCG manufacturers, luxury goods makers, media companies, marketing services firms and pharmaceutical companies, BUT has no technology company sponsors.

    The reasons are cultural in nature:

    • Engineering – if I haven’t heard of it or invented it then it’s not valid and you’re just a suit. At best great product is the marketing – and that’s great if you have a clearly differentiated great product which is self evident. The engineering mindset is also why they trust adtech and marketing automation services which outsource your marketing communications approach to a black box
    • Sales – marketing is just support. Which is the reason why my early clients (like old school Silicon Valley royalty LSI Logic) promoted long serving secretaries and administration staff into marketing roles
    • Even if they had a marketer who knew about Ehrenberg-Bass they wouldn’t be able to get in buy-in from the wider organisation to participate and they’d likely be fighting other dumpster fires elsewhere

    Secondly, their laser focus on data affects their outlook. To paraphrase the comedian Bill Hicks: they know the price of everything, but the value of nothing. Because they are only looking at short term data. Great marketing and advertising also has long term effects that both screws with the short term marketing data focus.

    Marketing and growth hacking are considered synonymous. It would seem ridiculous for me to to claim in any large marketing orientated organisation that sales and marketing are synonymous. The differences and complementary aspects of both would be well known. Yet in technology companies, this isn’t the case.

    By contrast Geico as a brand is an organisation who understood marketing. You make your car or house insurance decision at best once a year (though there is friction in making a change).

    The technology sector approach would be for Geico to bid on search ads and aggregators to acquire customers and then do direct mail or email when it comes to renewal times. But Geico advertising does something different. Geico advertising builds mental framework, so that Geico means car insurance and will be one of the brands that you consider.

    This achieves a few things:

    • You are less likely to move away from Geico, you may not love them, but searching for an alternative might be too much of a hassle.
    • You may be reassured that you have chosen ‘the’ car insurance
    • It helps new customers get over the ‘which car insurance company to choose’ decision
    • It helps with upsell on the products due to the reassurance of the brand

    Technology companies deal with these problems in a slightly different way:

    • Certification of engineering staff. If you are Microsoft certified or Cisco certified, you are less likely to use open source software or Juniper Networks products respectively. It would be against your self interest and the investment in terms of time and money that you have made in your self development
    • Contractual lock-in – self explanatory
    • Technology lock-in. You can put your data or programming code into a particular system, but its much harder and more expensive to move on to another system
    • Owning the entire technology stack. This is the approach that Adobe Systems have taken, gradually acquiring over the years the entire marketing, workflow and creative systems used by ad agencies, media agencies and their clients

    So why was Geico advertising spend cut?

    This is the crux of my point about how the wrong lessons might be taken away from the Geico advertising spend cut, with no ‘apparent’ impact.

    There are a number of good reasons why Geico made the cut in advertising spend:

    • There was a cut in insurance sector advertising overall, so that Geico maintained or even grew its relative share of voice while spending less. This should see it emerge with improved economic performance over time. Procter and Gamble became the behemoth it now is by INCREASING advertising during the great depression of the 1920s. So the idea of relative share of voice and its relationship to market share is older than I am. Further more research by the IPA has found that holding or increasing relative share of voice during a downturn has a positive impact for business performance over a five year period
    • Geico may have managed to make some efficiency gains, this is most likely to occur in brand activating activities

    There is also a bad reason: saving money in the short term. Kraft Heinz cut marketing to the bone under the guise of zero based budgeting (ZBB) – which made a mockery of ZBB as a concept. Kraft Heinz shares massively underperformed and were down 60% in the last 5 years, compared to the S&P 500 having gone up 69%. If Geico is following this route then it bodes ill for the long term performance of the business.

    Without us knowing the real reasons and focusing on the short term measure, it reinforces a growth hacking mindset.

    Beauty

    Beauty hotspots: Why global giants are circling Australian brands | Vogue Business – well developed brands, celebrity and influencer brands have less longevity and are over-priced by comparison

    Trends Shaping the Future of the Skincare Industry | Mintel 

    Farfetch to shut down its beauty business | Vogue Business – interesting e-commerce specific issues

    Business

    A Chinese Electronics Empire – The Wire China  – on Midea

    China

    The China Convergence – by N.S. Lyons – The Upheaval

    Chinese developer’s cancelled share placement fuels property sector woes | Financial Times – this is interesting as Country Garden is one of the country’s better run developers and hasn’t done as many things that could be considered hubristic in nature. And the second shoe drops: China’s Country Garden misses bond payments as turmoil grips property sector | Financial Times

    Anger in China over plan to use cities as ‘moat’ to save Beijing from floods | China | The Guardian

    China’s embassy to Russia criticises treatment of citizens at border | Reuters 

    Weekly news roundup: China’s strides and setbacks in semiconductor self-sufficiency and other top stories – interesting that China is going for self sufficiency across all aspects of semiconductors from raw materials to processes

    Reckoning in China: Behind Xi Jinping’s Firing of Top Beijing Officials | Daily Beast

    White House unveils ban on US investment in Chinese tech sectors | Financial Times 

    Chinese economy falls into deflation as recovery stumbles | Financial Times 

    China’s Plan to Rule the World’s Smart Devices, FCC Urged to Act | Newsweek

    Consumer behaviour

    Invasion of Food Delivery Robots is Driving People to Vandalism and Theft | Futurism – no opportunity is bringing out the worst in some people

    Hard times mean no sustainability premium in North America | WARC | The Feed – every single economic recession this comes around and marketers are surprised. Time to pay attention to what the longitudinal research data says. I really like the work that Gallup have done on macro trends and the American consumer, in particular their work on attitudes to the environment.

    Culture

    Remnants of curry dating back 1,800 years found on stone tools in Southeast Asia is oldest outside India | South China Morning Post 

    Economics

    Risk perceptions and economic activity in the United Kingdom | Bank Underground

    VC Optimism Returning But More Pain Ahead In Their Portfolios | Hunter Walk 

    Energy

    The growth of lithium-ion battery power | The Economist – hitting a natural limit of price / energy provided

    Gadgets

    Apple seeks to bolster expertise in generative AI on mobile devices | Financial Times

    Germany

    Bertelsmann Investments to plough $700mn into Chinese start-ups | Financial Times

    Health

    ‘Pokémon Sleep’ Review: Sleep-Tracking Game Made Me Into Snorlax – gamifying sleep. Pokemon Sleep has surged to 3.2M global downloads and an estimated $130k in daily revenue according to SensorTower data. The app ranked in the top 5 in the U.S. Games charts. It’s even more popular in Japan (the home of Pokemon), where it’s number 1 across the App Store categories

    MSLs drive 1.5x adoption in first six months | Klick Wire – launch tactic

    Hong Kong

    Bruce Lee’s legacy squares up to modern life in Hong Kong | Reuters

    ‘Long-distance’ is the new ‘soft’ | Big Lychee, Various Sectors

    Canadian Case Exposes Hong Kong Developer’s Corporate Ties to Chinese Criminal Underworld – OCCRP 

    How to

    INFER Public | The Pub Blog – Using AI to improve your forecast rationale 

    Japan

    FEATURE: Samurai and Son – The Oral History of SHOGUN ASSASSIN! – Tokyoscope has the inside track on the American version of Lone Wolf & Cub part two

    Luxury

    Bentley’s global sales drop 4pc in first half of 2023 | Luxury Daily 

    Marketing

    Using attention to scale creative excellence at Mars | WARC – Sales, distinctive assets, and attention to advertising are the go-to metrics to guide marketing decisions at Mars. Mars use Attention as a pre-testing tool, to inform creative choices in digital and also proxy in TV. Mars believe that an execution with a better attention score will travel across media channels better and will be a safer bet for you when you need to make a choice. Measuring Attention is a key element in helping us improve the creative hit rate. Advertisers should question how they measure consumer responses and focus on measures of real consumer behavior.

    Thinkerbell co-founders on life after PwC – by Tim Burrowes 

    Materials

    Musk still mulling massive Tesla plant for Indonesia | Asia Times – Indonesia is one of the biggest supplies of Nickel in the world and have been focused on exploiting it in a way that maximises the economic benefit to Indonesians

    Media

    Advertising has reached a new low in the age of podcasts | Financial Times and WPP & Spotify announce first-of-its-kind global partnership | WPP 

    Influencer Marketing on Instagram: Empirical Research on Social Media Engagement with Sponsored Posts and Sponsored posts and microinfluencers deliver greater engagement on Instagram | WARC – Sponsored posts of social media influencers (SMIs) outperformed their non-sponsored posts in terms of generating more comments and “likes” than NSPs. The average number of engagements for sponsored posts was 1,559.2, beating a comparative figure of 1,157.4 for non-sponsored posts. Median engagement totals for sponsored posts came in at 747, while the median engagement for NSPs stood at 401.

    Online

    China proposes tighter limits on children’s use of tech | Financial Times

    How effective is Russian propaganda? | Financial Times 

    LinkedIn Workplace Halts Services in China Starting Today – Pandaily – I was a bit surprised as I thought Linkedn had left a few years ago

    Security

    UK defence group BAE Systems lifts profit forecast as military spending soars | Financial Times and Britain’s investors shy away from UK defence companies | Financial Times 

    The untold history of today’s Russian-speaking hackers | Financial Times 

    Former U.S. Officials Urge New Export Alliance on China – EE Times 

    Microsoft downplays damaging report on Chinese hacking its own engineers vetted – this could go bad for Microsoft: US senator victim-blames Microsoft for Chinese hack 

    Five Eyes nations list 12 most exploited vulnerabilities • The RegisterFortinet products are coming off very badly in this list

    Fortinet’s security issues have aligned with a reluctance for customers to upgrade their business with the company

    Exclusive: North Korean hackers breached top Russian missile maker | Reuters

    On publicizing Chinese hacking success – by Graham Webster – really interesting observations here

    Drug-related killings add to instability in Syria’s south | Asia Times 

    Software

    Should an AI bot making $1mn really be the next Turing test? | Financial Times – also what does it say about being human?

    Zoom wants to train its AI on content from all user calls | Quartz – combine the legal overreach with concerns about Zoom’s connections with the Chinese government and you can see how bad this is likely to get

    Style

    Yeezy drops are still boosting Adidas profits | Vogue Business 

    Technology

    AMD Q2 – Building Momentum? | Digits to Dollars 

    Radar Trends to Watch: August 2023 – O’Reilly 

    White House unveils ban on US investment in Chinese tech sectors | Financial Times 

    Web of no web

    Taiwan’s satellite supply chain empowering international market entry

  • The politics of Prada + more stuff

    The Politics of Prada

    The politics of Prada challenged what I knew about the luxury brand. I knew that Prada started off as a handbag company that then pivoted into apparel. I also realised that some Prada items probably borrowed from military clothing design and fabric technology, such as Prada’s iconic black Pocono fabric backpacks.

    prada

    This is pretty common across Italian design with Stone Island CP Company being prime examples. If you would have asked me about the politics of Prada, I would have expected it to be part of the wider anarcho-far left hatred of all prestige brands.

    I didn’t realise that Miuccia Prada’s clothing designs reflected her own left wing, pro-feminist politics. The connections of Prada with yachting has less to do with the politics of Prada and more to do with the passion of her husband and business partner Patrizio Bertelli.

    One forgets how politics in Italy, had elements of the far left with the Communist Party and the Red Brigades pitted against reactionary right including the Propaganda Due (P2) masonic lodge and the Bologna central station bombing on August 2, 1980. The politics of Prada is by its nature Italian. More related content here.

    Aimé Leon Dore x DJ Stretch Armstrong

    Aimé Leon Dore got Stretch Armstrong in for a set playing sublime vintage soul 45s.

    Scott Galloway on the intersection of economics and technology

    Professor Scott Galloway on the intersection of economics, social trends, consumer trends and technology.

    Iran-Contra affair

    The Iran-Contra affair was how the president Reagan administration, specifically ‘rogue’ elements within it like Oliver North and John Poindexter, came to swap heavy weaponry with the terrorist sponsoring government of Iran in exchange for the release of American hostages, and how money from these deals came to be diverted to a secret and illegal war in Central America.

    Sean Munger provided one of the best accounts of it that I have seen outside of the Congressional report.

    The most Hong Kong thing I saw all week

    HKIB News – a cable and online TV news channel featured a news story about the first trip of local bus company KMB’s electric double decker bus. At the bus stop was a mix of young and middle aged (mostly) male business enthusiasts. In Hong Kong, bus enthusiasts is much more mainstream in the UK. There are shops that sell die-cast scale models of buses in different liveries, so you can get an exact period-correct bus. Bus enthusiasm and the continued popularity of radio controlled car builds as mainstream hobbies were two distinctive aspects of Hong Kong culture for me.

    Much of this is down to the limited size of Hong Kong and the public transport infrastructure. Generations of small children have enjoyed some of their happiest memories starting and ending with a bus trip. Buses are the first line of public transport. Hong Kong, (and Singapore) have a good number of young men and women for which it is the dream career. Which is remarkable given that these are part of the developed world and have a good education system.

    Instead in the UK, you have a job that pays minimum wage that no one dreams doing.