Ged Carroll

Category: technology | 技術 | 기술 | テクノロジー

It’s hard to explain to someone who didn’t live through it how transformation technology has been. When I was a child a computer was something mysterious. My Dad has managed to work his way up from the shop floor of the shipyard where he worked and into the planning office.

One evening he broad home some computer paper. I was fascinated by the the way the paper hinged on perforations and had tear off side edges that allowed it to be pulled through the printer with plastic sprockets connecting through holes in the paper.

My Dad used to compile and print off work orders using an ICL mainframe computer that was timeshared by all the shipyards that were part of British Shipbuilders.

I used the paper for years for notes and my childhood drawings. It didn’t make me a computer whiz. I never had a computer when I was at school. My school didn’t have a computer lab. I got to use Windows machines a few times in a regional computer labs. I still use what I learned in Excel spreadsheets now.

My experience with computers started with work and eventually bought my own secondhand Mac. Cut and paste completely changed the way I wrote. I got to use internal email working for Corning and internet connectivity when I went to university. One of my friends had a CompuServe account and I was there when he first met his Mexican wife on an online chatroom, years before Tinder.

Leaving college I set up a Yahoo! email address. I only needed to check my email address once a week, which was fortunate as internet access was expensive. I used to go to Liverpool’s cyber cafe with a friend every Saturday and showed him how to use the internet. I would bring any messages that I needed to send pre-written on a floppy disk that also held my CV.

That is a world away from the technology we enjoy now, where we are enveloped by smartphones and constant connectivity. In some ways the rate of change feels as if it has slowed down compared to the last few decades.

  • Grenadier car project + other news

    Grenadier

    Ineos Projekt Grenadier: an old-school 4×4 off-roader for 2020 by CAR Magazine – interesting that they think there is a gap here. Chemical conglomerate Ineos, have the money to pull the Grenadier off.

    Grenadier market?

    The larger question is around whether there is a market for the Grenadier? While we think of Land Cruisers as luxury vehicles, you can still get a barebones one in markets like Australia, the Middle East and Africa. Mercedes still does a bare bones G-Wagen.

    Grenadier costs

    A mass production assembly line for the Grenadier including tooling would cost about £100 million or so, based on previous refits I have seen done at the Vauxhall car plant in Ellesmere Port.

    That wouldn’t include an engine foundry. I would expect Grenadier to raid the parts bins of other manufacturers for things like engines. They will buy off the shelf transmissions from the likes of ZF or Magna PT, if they can’t raid a parts bin. The problem with raiding parts bins is that you are using products that are designed to be digitally integrated together now. Would companies like VDO be able to provide you with analogue instruments? Most modern cars aren’t unreliable because of cabin electronics, the problems are usually the underlying mechanics and control systems. Those electronics are put there to get the vehicles to ‘limbo’ under the tightening environmental standards and Grenadier will be no exception.

    Overall development of the Grenadier may cost multiples of the price of the production line, including type approval across markets.

    Business

    Publicis and WPP are takeover targets and Accenture ‘looks a credible buyer’, bank says – interesting hypothesis

    T-Mobile and Sprint are in active talks about a merger | CNBC – Son-san and Legere could be an interesting and complementary mix

    Consumer behaviour

    Under The Surface: The Why of Chinese Consumer Behaviour | Holmes Report  – with a billion people and a fast-growing economy, those feelings of uncertainty are even more profound and widespread.   The true meaning of technology for Chinese users? The ability to feel in control in an era of anxiety.

    Douglas Todd: Men do well in science and tech, but lag elsewhere | Montreal Gazette – the real reason more males complete STEM degrees, says Tabarrok, of George Mason University, is that, to put it too bluntly, “the only men who are good enough to get into university are men who are good at STEM. Women are good enough to go into non-STEM and STEM fields.”

    The findings of Card, of the University of California, Berkeley, and Payne, of McMaster University, are consistent with wider concerns about the under-representation of men in higher education and in many sectors of the labour market, says Tabarrok.

    “If we accept the results (of Card and Payne), the gender-industry gap is focused on the wrong thing. The real gender gap is that men are having trouble competing everywhere except in STEM,” says Tabarrok – the big question is the why? It also makes one wonder if the narrative of privilege has gone into reverse for some reason?

    Economics

    Sustainable development: China’s path out of poverty can never be repeated at scale by a country again — Quartz – interesting read. It puts the internet into perspective, shipping containers had more impact in China’s economic rise

    Ethics

    Idle Words | Anatomy of a moral panic – worthwhile reading as it illustrates the current poor state of news reporting

    Ideas

    Blade Runner 2049_: Inside the Dark Future of a Sequel 35 Years in the Making | WIRED – “Blade Runner changed the way the world looks and how we look at the world,” William Gibson says. It was one of the things which inspired me to move to Hong Kong

    Innovation

    Really interesting hologram imagery created using the persistence of vision effect

    Here’s another example of it from a Chinese company in Shenzhen thanks to Naomi Wu for the video. According to Naomi this is a Rainbo device.

    Media

    ​Facebook: news a pagamento entro il 2017, anche in Italia – Rai News – Facebook to trial paywalled content

    China’s Booming Live Streaming Market Has Reached Its Zenith – Huajiao. Long answer: emoji-like “gifts” from the viewers that can later be cashed in for money. Chinese viewers are less enamored by mindlessly goofy check out my six pack vids (*cough* Logan Paul), and more interested in watching the mundanities of their favorite influencer’s everyday life — i.e. singing in the shower, driving, and… slurping soup? – There is a clear line between this and things like Korean ‘eating’ videos.

    Influencer Marketing Effectiveness is Limited by Management! | PARKLU – not only China!

    Uber Sues Mobile Agency Alleging Ad Fraud – WSJ – interesting implications around tracking showing weakness in Uber’s much vaunted data expertise?

    Should Social Go Local? | The Daily | L2 – some nice assets

    Online

    Twitter to test longer tweets – but only for European languages – Mumbrella Asia – to be honest it makes sense for languages like German and Finnish

    The New York Times on Facebook

    The First Web Apps: 5 Apps That Shaped the Internet as We Know It | Zapier blog – great lunch time read

    Security

    DuckDuckGo: The Solopreneur That Is Beating Google at Its Game – The Four-Week MBA

    Signal Has a Fix for Apps’ Contact-Leaking Problem | WIRED – I so hope they sort it

    Distrustful U.S. allies force spy agency to back down in encryption fight  – academic and industry experts from countries including Germany, Japan and Israel worried that the U.S. electronic spy agency was pushing the new techniques not because they were good encryption tools, but because it knew how to break them.

    The NSA has had to drop all but the most powerful versions of the techniques – those least likely to be vulnerable to possible hacks by the NSA

    Technology

    Unilever finds startups can replace some agency tasks – Digiday – marketing automation gone mad

  • Alibaba Tencent and Huawei + more

    Alibaba Tencent and Huawei will take on the west’s technology players and win, predicts Sorrell – Mumbrella Asia – Alibaba Tencent and Huawei may also end up being Galapagos type businesses, or being seen a  threat by the Party because of their power. It would also be Huawei at least is a WPP client….

    Ideas

    The Equality of Opportunity Project  – This introductory course, taught by Raj Chetty, shows how “big data” can be used to understand and solve some of the most important social and economic problems of our time

    Luxury

    Rich Kid Buys Girl 8-Foot Tall Costco Teddy Bear, Gets Rejected | What’s on Weibo – interesting skepticism on viral moments or memes

    Free and Easy’s American Dream – Ralph Lauren magazine – great bit of media analysis on cult Japanese style magazine Free and Easy

    Security

    Source: Deloitte Breach Affected All Company Email, Admin Accounts — Krebs on Security – just wow

    China Blocks WhatsApp, Broadening Online Censorship – NYTimes.com – the wrong question being asked. Instead why did it last so long? Expect WeChat usage to pick up in Hong Kong etc for cross border communications

    Software

    macOS 10.13 High Sierra: The Ars Technica review | Ars Technica – great in-depth review

    Technology

    Will Imagination Deals Deliver MIPS to China? | EE Times – interesting discussions on the Tallwood VC / Canyon Bridge deal and possible implications for the MIPS eco-system. Interesting that China sees more potential and security in MIPS than ARM….

    Digital Evangelist: Imagination Technologies sale to Canyon Bridge – I rather expect that the Hertfordshire based business is likely to suffer the fate of Vertu and end up bankrupt and sold for scrap in less than two years because of mismanagement and the new owner having very little understanding as to just what they own and control  Imagination Technologies agrees £550m sale to Canyon Bridge | FT – the MIPS business goes to Tailwood VC (paywall)

  • AMD Live and the connected home ten years later

    A decade ago I worked on AMD Live. A hodgepodge of hardware and software that provided media access where ever and whenever you wanted it.  Here is a short video that we made at the time to bring it to life. The idea was that AMD would be able to sell higher specifications of PC components into the home to act as digital hub. They wanted to push their Opteron server processors into the home.

    An engineer came in and spent the best part of a day setting everything up throughout the house prior to shooting the film. At the time much of the streaming boxes didn’t work as promised so some of the screen images were put in post-production. There was a mix of cloud services and home hosted content. At the centre was a PC running Windows Multimedia Centre. There was a raft of third-party apps needed as well

    • Network management apps
    • Video and image compression apps
    • Instant messaging (that wasn’t MSN or Skype – no idea why it was in the bundle)
    • TV tuner software
    • A music jukebox application
    • Network management
    • An AMD GUI which provided a 3D carousel effect and integrated web browser

    It was all a bit of kludge.

    Digital content was well on its way. Streaming technology was well known but unstructured. RealNetworks had been going commercially since 1997, but the playback quality was dependent on Internet network connectivity, We only started to see widespread DSL adoption from 2003 onwards in the UK. By the first quarter of 2003, DSL was enabled at 1200 of the 5600 telephone exchanges across the UK.

    Apple’s QuickTime streaming server was open sourced back in 1999; so if anyone wanted to set up a streaming network they had the technology to do so.

    Digital audio content prior to 2003 had largely been ripped from optical media or downloaded online via FTP, Usenet or P2P networks. iTunes launched its music store in 2003.

    From a standing start in 2002; by 2004, 5 million devices with a HDMI connection had been sold. The built in copy protection had been developed by an Intel subsidiary and was adopted by all the big Japanese consumer electronics manufacturers.

    By 2005, Apple had started selling iTunes movies and TV programmes  alongside its music offering that allowed sharing of an account on up to 5 concurrent devices.

    Apple launched its MFi programme in January 2005, which begat a raft of speakers and stereos with iPod connectivity in the home and the car.

    Sonos released its speaker system including a wi-fi mesh network and AES network encryption. Flickr had a well documented API that allowed for a fully functioning photo album and picture streaming which was used in early web 2.0 mashups.

    AMD Live was on the back-foot from day one. From a high end perspective of audio streaming Sonos had it locked down. For everyone else moving an iPod from room to room had the same effect.  Mini-video servers could be configured from mini-PC boxes, but they were only for the technically skilled. Even the Mac Mini launched in 2005 didn’t make the process much easier. The key advantage is that it could use iTunes as a video source and a playing software.

    Back then because it was US centric in its view AMD Live completely ignored the rise of the smartphone as a music playback device.  By 2007, Nokia launched ‘Comes With Music‘ which put mobile streaming in play. Apple Music and Spotify have now made streaming effortless. Video playback now comes from devices the size of a thumb drive. New intermediate screens from tablets to smartphones changed viewing habits and the PC has become redundant as the home hub for all but the most enthusiastic AV aficionados.

  • Google Facebook Amazon and Apple + more

    Lost Context: How Did We End Up Here? – NewCo Shift – how did Google  Facebook  Amazon and Apple get to a position similar to that of the gilded age giants?  What can be done to regulate Google Facebook Amazon and Apple?

    Online

    Facebook (FB) on Russian ads: Our platform doesn’t influence people; people influence people — Quartz – what’s the point of advertising then?

    Security

    Troy Hunt: Face ID, Touch ID, No ID, PINs and Pragmatic Security – most people are crap at information security. Reducing the friction of signing up and using authentication raises the overall security level of consumers

    WeChat confirms that it makes all private user data available to the Chinese government – Moneycontrol.com – not terribly surprising – this is China’s answer to PRISM. Your communications are unencrypted on WeChat so commercially confidential information is at risk from hackers and your local government regardless of whether Tencent hands your data over to the Chinese government

    Really interesting design experiment from Chinese university students. It is interesting that they use the ‘goldfish’ as the avatar of the AI. It also asks questions about how we relate to pets and whether augmentation like this would work.

    Very interesting student project from Shanghai Jiaotong University, has your pet fish serve as an avatar/front end for a smart device pic.twitter.com/tHDODQHArM

    — Naomi Wu (@RealSexyCyborg) September 22, 2017

    Software

    Business Standard-Bitcoin’s wild ride shows the truth: It is probably worth zero – likely worth nothing

    And I think dealing with the foibles of macOS 11 (developer beta) was a hassle

    Technology

    UK chip designer Imagination bought by Chinese firm – BBC News – but what about the need for a customer base? The MIPS architecture stuff is interesting and probably a bit of a concern for automotive etc

    AI Turns UI Designs Into Code – NVIDIA Developer News Center – interesting project where machine learning takes design mock-ups and turns them into working web apps with code

    Wireless

    Smartphones are dead. Long live smartphones! · Forrester – emphasis away from only ads to also think about experiences – big challenge is the zero growth in aggregate app usage

    SaveSave

  • Machine learning sublime influence

    Scott Galloway talks about the way brands are using AI (machine learning) and the examples are very much in the background.  Welcome to the sublime world of machine learning where the impact on the customer experience won’t be apparent. In many respects this is similar to how fuzzy logic became invisible as it was introduced in the late 1980s.

    The Japanese were particularly adept at putting an obscure form of mathematics to use. They made lifts that adapted to the traffic flows of people going in and out of a building and microwaves which knew how long to defrost whatever you put into it. Fuzzy logic compensated for blur in video camera movement in a similar manner to way smartphone manufacturers now use neural networks on images.

    The Japanese promoted fuzzy logic inside products to the home market, but generally backed off from promoting it abroad. The features just were and consumers accepted them over time. In a quote that is now eerily reminiscent of our time a spokesperson for the American Electronics Association’s Tokyo office said to the Washington Post

    “Some of the fuzzy concepts may be valid in the U.S.,”

    “The idea of better energy efficiency, or more precise heating and cooling, can be successful in the American market,”

    “But I don’t think most Americans want a vacuum cleaner that talks to you and says, ‘Hey, I sense that my dust bag will be full before we finish this room.’ “

    This was also the case with the use technology companies made of Bayes Theory. This was used by the likes of Autonomy and Microsoft Research.

    A second technique was rules, put simply IF then THAT. This kind of technology has been used to drive automated trading models and credit card approvals for decades. Pegasystems are one of the leaders in developing rules based processing. Rules based systems could even be built in an Excel macro and would still count as a form of machine learning. 

    Finally machine learning needs to think about a number of things with regards the models being used:

    • The importance of accuracy in the use case
    • The level of precision required and ways to indicate that precision means
    • The cost of generation versus other methods, this is very important in terms of computing power and energy consumption 

    More information
    The Future of Electronics Looks Fuzzy | Washington Post (December 23, 1990)