Category: technology | 技術 | 기술 | テクノロジー

It’s hard to explain to someone who didn’t live through it how transformation technology has been. When I was a child a computer was something mysterious. My Dad has managed to work his way up from the shop floor of the shipyard where he worked and into the planning office.

One evening he broad home some computer paper. I was fascinated by the the way the paper hinged on perforations and had tear off side edges that allowed it to be pulled through the printer with plastic sprockets connecting through holes in the paper.

My Dad used to compile and print off work orders using an ICL mainframe computer that was timeshared by all the shipyards that were part of British Shipbuilders.

I used the paper for years for notes and my childhood drawings. It didn’t make me a computer whiz. I never had a computer when I was at school. My school didn’t have a computer lab. I got to use Windows machines a few times in a regional computer labs. I still use what I learned in Excel spreadsheets now.

My experience with computers started with work and eventually bought my own secondhand Mac. Cut and paste completely changed the way I wrote. I got to use internal email working for Corning and internet connectivity when I went to university. One of my friends had a CompuServe account and I was there when he first met his Mexican wife on an online chatroom, years before Tinder.

Leaving college I set up a Yahoo! email address. I only needed to check my email address once a week, which was fortunate as internet access was expensive. I used to go to Liverpool’s cyber cafe with a friend every Saturday and showed him how to use the internet. I would bring any messages that I needed to send pre-written on a floppy disk that also held my CV.

That is a world away from the technology we enjoy now, where we are enveloped by smartphones and constant connectivity. In some ways the rate of change feels as if it has slowed down compared to the last few decades.

  • Hacks and Hackers notes

    I went to the Hacks and Hackers London presentations this evening host at the Institute of Directors and here is a summary of the notes that I made.

    Presenting at Hacks and Hackers this time was:

    • Simon Rogers
    • Kate Day

    Simon Rogers is ex-Guardian and Twitter. He talked about how Google uses Google Trends, combining it with third party data such as information from the likes of Associated Press. They build some nice visualisations around them. Most of the data that they used was basically the same data that consumers had access to through the Google Trends tool. Google seem to deliberately restrained in terms of the data that they could deploy on this, but they did work on tightening up and redefining regions from the way their internal data held it to the way it related to the real world.

    There was some nice work done that looked at associated search terms that came up by people who searched for US presidential candidate names. It reminded me of the work that Hunch did around consumer behaviour patterns and likely political beliefs – but less sophisticated. (Hunch was bought by eBay and eventually shut down).

    Kate Day talked about the launch of US site Politico in Europe. The business had a split business model with a B2B subscription offering that provided European Parliament intelligence. and a more conventional consumer advertising audience model which targeted people who were professionally interested in European parliamentary politics.

    From an editorial point of view stories which drove big peaks in traffic often brought in the wrong kind of audience who either wouldn’t be likely to return, or ‘get’ the content on offer.

    Targeting on social media was purely done through careful selection of the copywriting, which requires professional knowledge and a desire to self select as a ‘policy wonk’ rather than using Facebook or Twitter’s ad targeting mechanisms. In common with other subject areas regular coverage of a beat area matters to drive continued engagement. Politico has managed to get UK press scoops by showing up at all the press briefings in Brussels rather than following the British eurocrat events – this probably says a lot about the small size of teams that other national news outlets have operating there.

    More media related topics here.

  • Context collapse

    Disclaimer on context collapse

    Years ago I wrote a series of posts with the link-baiting titles of ‘Facebook is a dead man walking’; the first post written in 2008. I say this so you can form an opinion up  front about my interpretation  around the idea of context collapse.

    Facebook page

    According to The Information, Facebook is worried about a drop in users sharing their own content.

    As of mid-2015, total sharing had declined by about 5.5% year over year while “original broadcast sharing” was down 21% year over year, the confidential data show.

    This loss is especially acute with under 30 year old users. This loss in sharing according to Bloomberg company staff have branded context collapse.

    Context collapse

    What are the likely causes of context collapse? Here my are my hypotheses.

    Negative network effects. Just five years ago ZDNet published research were respondents admitted that they were drunk in 75 per cent of their photos on Facebook. In 2016, when ‘friends’ means colleagues, superiors, clients, teachers or parents there will be a lot more self-censorship going on.  A more subtle form of self censorship will be also brought about in terms of societal norming.

    When Facebook initially arrived the volume of content that people shared was larger, now it isn’t only the nature of the content that people will consider but the volume of the content. Are they too noisy, do they overshare?

    Facebook lost a lot of trust with consumers with things likes Beacon. Consumers didn’t necessarily understand the nuances, they were told that it wasn’t good and their privacy settings are a major hassle to tweak – when you’re on edge about privacy, you are more likely to put a filter on your content.

    Just over five years ago, Netbase had released brand research that showed consumers had a stronger, negative feeling towards Facebook than brands like Microsoft, Google or Twitter. That left room for other services to creep in for self-expression, messaging and sharing to small groups. Facebook bought some of the major players Instagram and WhatsApp, but doesn’t own all the pieces.

    More information
    Facebook Struggles to Stop Decline in ‘Original’ Sharing | The Information (paywall)
    British Facebook users are drunk in 76% of their photos | ZDNet
    Facebook Wants You to Post More About Yourself – Bloomberg
    Why Facebook is a dead man walking | renaissance chambara
    Why Facebook is a dead man walking part II? | renaissance chambara
    Why Facebook is a dead man walking part 2.5? | 技术品牌的情绪 | renaissance chambara
    Facebook and advertising or why Facebook is a dead man walking part III? | renaissance chambara

  • Unlicensed delivery vehicles + more stuff

    Crackdown on unlicensed delivery vehicles in Chinese boom city creates major logistics headache | South China Morning Post – this will affect TaoBao sellers. Unlicensed delivery vehicles are an example of an imbalance between legislation, business and infrastructure.   (paywall)

    [1403.2345] Home Location Identification of Twitter Users | Cornell University – (pdf)

    Flamboyant Chinese boss takes luxury-car motorcade on road trip into harsh Tibetan Plateau, damaging half of them | South China Morning Post – “People follow you because you have a fortune and they think they can also earn some money from following you” (paywall) – this explains a lot of Chinese luxury purchases, particularly for men’s products. More on luxury here

    LG G5 Review: A Bit Of A Mess, Frankly | Android Police – brutal and arguably unfair review

    Net Promoter Score® / NPS® Benchmarks 2015 – really handy for benchmarking businesses

    28% of Piracy Takedown Requests Are “Questionable” – TorrentFreak – interesting break down

    The Next 40 | Asymco – interesting analysis of Apple’s first 40 years

    Convolutional Networks for Fast, Energy-Efficient Neuromorphic Computing | Cornell University – interesting article on neural networks (PDF)

    Cicero ‘sorry’ for Google ad campaign sneering at major PR agency rivals | PR Week – using competitor brands as advertising terms is standard practice, though the copywriting could be done a bit better – storm in a tea-cup

    When Hong Kong had no galleries: 1970s art revisited in show | South China Morning Post – it fucks me off when people say Hong Kong never had any art or culture. As well as the thriving low art of signage and graffiti there has been a small high art movement (paywall)

    IngDan: a one-stop supply chain centre for online-to-offline – Alibaba for IoT

    Hong Kong’s bogus banners show political dark arts live on | South China Morning Post – real world hacking. Vinyl banners are secured to railings in high traffic areas to deliver political messages for candidates or groups like Falun Gong or animal welfare charities (paywall)

    Need a friend? Iceland now rents them out to tourists | City AM – great idea by Icelandair

  • Huawei expansion into smartphone market

    Huawei expansion into smartphone market has started to be reflected int their released their annual results for 2015 last week. By going through their press release library and annual reports I have tried to piece together a picture of their consumer business and how it has grown over time.

    Huawei isn’t like other businesses you might be used to in terms of corporate structure. It is based around worker participation in profits with Chinese colleagues benefiting from profit share. It is a private company so it’s numbers don’t have the same level of disclosure requirements as public companies. It’s books are audited by a reputable accounting  firm.

    I found some inconsistencies in the way information is disclosed. For a number of years Huawei used to quote US dollar equivalents to its numbers, but has stopped doing so in the 2015 report.

    Other inconsistencies:

    • High-end device sales are only listed for the past three years as the company started to focus on the premium marketplace
    • Honor sub-brand device shipments were disclosed for 2014 and 2015 as the brand filled the low-to-mid market segments Huawei’s range had previously extended down to
    • I only have two years worth of revenue numbers from Western Europe, if I get more I can then start looking at trends over time
    • In 2014, they disclosed the proportion of sales from e-commerce and the number of Huawei branded stores. In 2015, they disclosed the total number of retail outlets worldwide that sold Huawei phones

    Between the currency fluctuations and the slight changes in information there may be some errors in my numbers – please bare this in mind.

    I have outlined my charts below as JPEGs and have embedded a presentation at the bottom for convenience.
    Consumer devices shipped
    Consumer average revenue / device
    Huawei consumer business growth over time

    What does 2016 and beyond bring?
    Overall sector outlook
    Looking at forecasts from market analysts and The World Bank Huawei will experience tougher market conditions with lower growth forecast across major markets like China. Smartphone market maturity will mean lower exceptions of sector growth as well.
    Macro economic data
    As a presentation

  • Online ad and tech data points

    Over time, I pulled together online ad and tech data points. It happened because I have had to compile data and visualise it based on desk and primary research. I thought that these slides may be of use to other people. So I have compiled them here. As I have time, I will try to update them with new data.

    There are here as JPGs and as a presentation on SlideShare which I have linked to at the bottom of the presentation.

    I decided to take a macro view looking at major email and OTT messaging platforms using monthly active users as a measure of adoption. This took a long slog of time to do as I had to go back and trawl quoted MAU (monthly active user) numbers from the dawn of the internet for people like Hotmail and Yahoo!. The numbers came from a wide range of sources.

    What’s interesting in this graph is how the internet dot.com time felt like a rocket ship, yet saw a gentle rise in user numbers in comparison to later smartphone based services like WhatsApp, WeChat et al. Google didn’t manage to cash in as big despite owning Android, but instead acted as a spring board for new players.

    Communications service adoption (active users)

    Brandwatch had a set of snapshot numbers that are rather different to the ones I had from my research

    Platform numbers snapshot

    The IPA Databank is an amazing source of quality planning information and work around the optimum number of channels in advertising campaign. The data is in sharp contrast to the 300+ channels that Machine Zone’s CMO Gabe Leydon claims that they work with to have an optimal communications mix.

    Optimum number of advertising channels

    My former boss Salim Mitha used to constantly go on about how online was underspent in comparison to the amount of consumer attention that it received. More up to date data shows that its channels like OOH (out of home) and radio which are currently underspend with online rapidly coming to parity between time spent and percentage of advertising budget spent.

    Audience time spent vs. advertising spend share

    Of course audience spend does not take into account the context under which the audience experiences the brand.

    I also have additional information on the health of the media industry and adoption of wearables in the statistics attached. More on consumer behaviour here.