Ged Carroll

Category: technology | 技術 | 기술 | テクノロジー

It’s hard to explain to someone who didn’t live through it how transformation technology has been. When I was a child a computer was something mysterious. My Dad has managed to work his way up from the shop floor of the shipyard where he worked and into the planning office.

One evening he broad home some computer paper. I was fascinated by the the way the paper hinged on perforations and had tear off side edges that allowed it to be pulled through the printer with plastic sprockets connecting through holes in the paper.

My Dad used to compile and print off work orders using an ICL mainframe computer that was timeshared by all the shipyards that were part of British Shipbuilders.

I used the paper for years for notes and my childhood drawings. It didn’t make me a computer whiz. I never had a computer when I was at school. My school didn’t have a computer lab. I got to use Windows machines a few times in a regional computer labs. I still use what I learned in Excel spreadsheets now.

My experience with computers started with work and eventually bought my own secondhand Mac. Cut and paste completely changed the way I wrote. I got to use internal email working for Corning and internet connectivity when I went to university. One of my friends had a CompuServe account and I was there when he first met his Mexican wife on an online chatroom, years before Tinder.

Leaving college I set up a Yahoo! email address. I only needed to check my email address once a week, which was fortunate as internet access was expensive. I used to go to Liverpool’s cyber cafe with a friend every Saturday and showed him how to use the internet. I would bring any messages that I needed to send pre-written on a floppy disk that also held my CV.

That is a world away from the technology we enjoy now, where we are enveloped by smartphones and constant connectivity. In some ways the rate of change feels as if it has slowed down compared to the last few decades.

  • CES 2012 trends

    Early January means CES 2012 in the tech calendar as the media gives its full attention to the consumer electronics sector. With some 2,600 exhibitors there was a lot of news coming out of the event. But I was more interested in some of the more macro trends that you could see from the coverage and hear from friends that attended the event. Here’s my three big things:

    Size zero design

    Size zero design – Motorola was responsible for move towards size zero design with its original SLVR and RAZR feature phone designs and Apple has turned it into a must-have design feature across both smartphones and computers. It was only natural that up and coming young Turks like Huawei with their Ascend P1 smartphone should attempt to demonstrate their technical prowess and superiority with the current thinnest phone.
    Huawei-Ascend P1-smartphones
    I also found it interesting that Fast Company wrote an article pointing out the design rabbit hole that size zero design is for device manufacturers and consumers. Pretty good, and only almost two years after this blog (^.^)

    Austerity designs

    Austerity designs – a general observation from a couple of the people I knew had gone to CES 2012 was that manufacturers generally had a lower average ticket price on the items that they were displaying. In the past manufacturers would bring different ranges into different markets, for instance Sony would bring higher end hi-fi products into France and Germany that they wouldn’t bring into the UK. There was less aspirationly priced items than in previous years, probably as manufacturers look to deal with the current economic climate. CES products are not only about drumming sales for the coming year, but also setting the tone for a next few years ahead. This pricing strategy indicates that many of the manufacturers probably aren’t expecting a huge economic bounce back in the West.

    Smart everything

    Smart everything – one of the things that struck me about CES 2012 is the way that technology was been shoehorned into every facet of life  from the car, to the wall thermostat and the wall plug. The only thing is I am not convinced that the electronics will last as long as the useful life of the car or the electro-mechanical Honeywell wall thermostat that would have been used previously. This phenomenon has become its own meme: the internet of (shit) things. Secondly do you really want your home heating or your car dashboard to need rebooting every so often so that it keeps working? I have even heard of the volume disappearing on Sony TVs until they they were updated

  • Patriot Act + more news

    PATRIOT Act

    PATRIOT Act clouds picture for tech | Politico – the PATRIOT Act passed in the wake of the September 11 attacks, giving the US government access to web services to try and fill in the gaps in intelligence. However the PATRIOT Act covers data held outside the US. So many foreign multinational companies are baulking at using US web services for their businesses. This is particularly important given the move from server and software apps to cloud computing. So the PATRIOT Act is disrupting US businesses from scaling

    Consumer behaviour

    Trendpool » Panasonic’s Female-Only Consumer Trial House

    Students of Virtual Schools Are Lagging in Proficiency – NYTimes.com – interesting that technology isn’t the panacea that people thought it would be in education. Smartboards haven’t been successful given their cost either

    Counterfeit goods losing attraction | SCMP.com – (paywall) Brands stand for quality – like they did in the Victorian era

    Young Women Go Back to School Instead of Work – NYTimes.com

    Economics

    More on What’s Left Over After Paying for Housing – The Atlantic – interesting article on housing and economics. Its less about house prices and more about income net of housing expenses

    Big Developers Dabble in Apartment Market – WSJ.com – decline in home ownership

    Finance

    Ray Dalio’s Richest and Strangest Hedge Fund : The New Yorker

    Innovation

    Single-Atom Wires Could Help Moore’s Law Live On

    Omron smartphone app comes close to instantaneous text translations | The Japan Times Online – like something straight out of a DARPA project

    Domestic robots failed to ride to rescue after No. 1 plant blew | The Japan Times Online – law of unintended consequences and innovation

    Liquid metal capsules used to make self-healing electronics | ExtremeTech

    Roboden: Japanese Company Develops World’s First Elastic Electrical Cable (Video) | TechCrunch

    Japan

    Woodford to sue Olympus, citing lack of investor support to get his job back ‹ Japan Today – not surprising he didn’t get support, first he trashes their shareholder value (probably exasperated by his theatre) then he asks for their help. They won’t care about the truth they’ll care about the 70 per cent drop in the market capitalisation

    Korea

    President Lee Myung-bak talked a lot about controlling high prices. – WSJ – growth and price inflation both considered issues

    Legal

    US Threatened To Blacklist Spain For Not Implementing Site Blocking Law | TorrentFreak

    London

    An Obligatory and Pointless Debate About the Olympics | VICE – but Vice nails it

    Luxury

    NetEase’s Luxury E-Commerce Site First Casualty Of 2012 « Jing Daily – interesting, especially since Netease has a lot of expertise in online businesses. I guess luxury handbags aren’t like World of Warcraft

    Will China’s E-Commerce Market See An Industry Shakeout In 2012? « Jing Daily

    Taking First-Class Coddling Above and Beyond – NYTimes.com – … first class represents less than 5 percent of all seats flown on long-haul routes, and business class accounts for 15 percent, those seats combined to generate 40 to 50 percent of airlines’ revenue, according to Peter Morris, the chief economist at Ascend, an aviation consulting firm

    Marketing

    UK marketers anticipate change: Warc.com – Ball & Hoolahan expecting marketing departments to get nuked in amalgamation with other departments

    Media

    Beijing Calling: The Trouble With China’s New English-Language News Network | Fast Company

    Retailing

    UK retailers face “carnage”: Warc.com – partly economics, partly industry structure due to etailing

    Wireless

    Nokia Moving to China from Singapore – WSJ – interesting complex reasons for choosing China or other countries outlined

    Interview with Murtazin – Will Microsoft Buy Nokia’s Smartphone Unit? – Forbes

    Text Messaging Is in Decline in Some Countries – NYTimes.com

    Nokia N9 outsells all other phones in Finland during October – Neowin.net – did Nokia’s move to Windows screw the pooch? Anecdotal evidence that it probably did. Also this code is now called Tinzen being pushed by Intel and Samsung

  • Zynga and the IPO

    I had held off writing on the ‘failed’ Zynga’s IPO at the end of last year. I am not going to say that Zynga is a great business; in many respects I don’t think it is, without even looking at its numbers I think that Zynga has three big challenges:

    • Facebook owns their customer base
    • Facebook owns their payment system
    • Facebook owns their customer acquisition strategy

    But was the Zynga IPO really a failure? Before I answer that I wanted to talk about another IPO.

    VA Linux IPO case study

    Back in 2000, I had the experience agencyside running the European launch of a company called VA Linux and took its then CEO Larry Augustin around the media. At the time VA Linux’s primary busness was building specialist workstations and servers were optimised for Linux and had Linux pre-installed. This meant that they thought carefully about component choices for instance the ethernet card (network interface card or NIC) in the computer was from Intel rather than 3Com because Intel did a better job in supporting Linux  in terms of the quality of its drivers.

    My experience of Augustin was of someone who was whip smart, with a dry wit and a genuinely nice guy – which made my job a hell of a lot easier to do. Life was good, Augustin gave good copy on the Judge Jackson finding of fact that had happened the previous November, Linux was building momentum in the enterprise and with web servers because it performed better than Windows, required less skill than the BSD distributions and was more of an entry level product than Sun Microsystems, SGI or IBM Unix hardware on specialised RISC architectures. One of the things that audiences wanted to talk about was VA Linux’s at the time record-breaking IPO.

    VA Linux’s underwriters had priced its IPO at US$30 per share, on the first day of trading the price topped US$320 per share. It was described as a stunning success but that success was double-edged. In economic terms, the bank staff working on the IPO had obviously under-priced it because the price had surged so much – depriving the company of a substantial amount of potential capital that it could have raised. Admittedly it was crazy times and VA Linux wasn’t worth the absurdly high valuation in the end, as businesses like Dell started competing with them head-on. But one has to ask what difference would the extra capital have made? How big does the pop have to be to go beyond rewarding initial investors and become negligent underpricing of a company’s stock?

    The Zynga comparison

    Back to Zynga, which had the opposite challenge, the bank staff working on the IPO had optimally priced the stock so that the company got pretty much the full amount that at least some people were prepared to pay. Rather than a pop, a price decline occurred which investors got upset about as late arrivals to the Zynga party made a financial loss. The underwriters for the IPO earned their money on this occasion. If you want to be the first kid on the block in a new set of the latest Nike Air Jordans, the latest gadget or the season’s must-have handbag, you have two choice get in early enough or pay over the odds. Who is to say if you’ve overpaid, once the heat goes those items are then likely to become cheaper again. And so it goes with Zynga, this shouldn’t be your pension fund; it is part of the new hotness, a fashion stock if you will and was priced and paid for as such.

    Disclaimer: this doesn’t constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy stocks. I am not a financial services professional nor do I profess to be. If you want investment advice, pay someone who does this for a living for it.

    More information

    THE TRUTH ABOUT ZYNGA: The Only Reason The IPO ‘Flopped’ Is Because Idiot Investors Paid Too Much

  • Workampers

    The Wall Street Journal had an article that introduced me to the idea of workampers. The article was on the seasonal workers that Amazon.com uses in the US to help it with the surge in demand in the run up to Christmas.

    Who were these elves to Amazon’s Santa Claus?

    The article describes them as workampers. Older retired people who live a transient lifestyle by choice in an RV (recreational vehicle) for at least part of the year.
    CIMG1091
    Their motivations were diverse in nature. Some of the workers are similar to their ancestors during the Great Depression, who moved across the country following work were it was available.

    For others the reasons are diverse, from money to help with expenses to camaraderie with similarly nomadic peers or proving to themselves that they could still hack a task. A mix of forced earlier retirement and improvements in health mean that many seniors still have decades of potential work still in them that they want to take advantage of.

    A mix of ageism and globalisation have meant that there is a growing body of workampers. Future workampers might be in a worse financial state due to less generous pensions and health insurance, higher personal debt and automation. The move to a lower carbon economy will also impact the ability of a workampers to live out of an RV and transverse large distances at a reasonable cost.

    Workamper futures

    With an aging population and the decimation of working class communities due to the opioid epidemic we are likely to see more demographics like workampers as companies adapt to tap into an older work pool. With Amazon in particular, one has to wonder if more of their warehouse and logistics work can be automated and how it will be affected by a low carbon future.

    More explanations of of jargon terms can be found here.

    More information

    Seasonal Amazon ‘Workampers’ Flock to Remote Towns for Temporary Gigs – WSJ.com (paywall)

  • Consumer interest in iOS etc.

    If you’re like me you read far more journalist analysis of the wireless phone market than is good for you. I thought that it would be instructive to have a look at what consumers are looking for instead and look for any patterns. After sales availability and visibility consumer interest is probably the biggest determinator of success. My weapon of choice was Google Insights for Search. My research was based on a few assumptions about consumer interest in the wireless space and some limitations in the tool that I was using:

    • Consumers know what type of smartphone that they want
    • Consumers decisions aren’t carrier loyal
    • Consumers used Roman script to search for the brand
    • Search is a good proxy for consumer interest – it hasn’t been disrupted by Facebook in this regard yet despite what others may tell you
    • China despite being the world’s largest market isn’t going to be providing meaningful data because Google Insights for Search doesn’t cover that market
    • The Russia sample is indicative of overall consumer sentiment in Russia (Yandex is a big search player in Russia)

    Consumer Interest in platforms
    Some of the biggest interest in handset brands is in the developing world. In many respects this is their PC revolution. In developed Asian markets like Hong Kong and Singapore there is a much higher interest than EU countries – partly because of on-the-go lifestyles and partly because of the economic cataclysm that the western world is facing. The iPhone still attracts the most interest, but what is interesting is the acceleration that Android seems to have in terms of increasing interest. Microsoft’s efforts, whilst lauded by critics haven’t yet turned into consumer interest.  Research In Motion’s Blackberry platform seems to be down but not out yet in the consumer stakes.

    Nokia

    I took a snapshot of consumer interest in Nokia over the past three months to try and see what effect the global launch campaign for Nokia’s Windows phones are doing to consumer interest in the brand.

    I deliberately didn’t compare them to the iPhone because Nokia themselves acknowledge that they are competing against Android handset makers like HTC and Samsung. Nokia launched the Lumia phones with their biggest marketing campaign ever and had a lot of column inches written about the brand alongside a gamut of marketing commnications tactics from experiential events and advertising to point of purchase.


    Whilst Nokia’s new range of Lumia phones have had a substantial marketing budget put in place, but it doesn’t seem to have significantly affected search interest: it’s not quite living up the Amazing Everyday billing yet. This is also the case for Windows Phone with interest remaining consistently low in comparison to the Nokia brand. I think that the stubborn consumer disinterest in Windows Phone is a big challenge.

    More wireless related content can be found here.