Ged Carroll

Blog

  • Debt defaults + more things

    China’s richest tycoons hit by debt defaults, arrests and suicides in 2019 amid tightening regulation | South China Morning Post  – billionaire’s problems, but an interesting read. A lot of Chinese corporates haven’t adapted well to the slow down in growth. Secondly, many of them have been caught in Xi’s prosecution of corrupt government officials (with an apparent focus on corrupt people who are also potential rivals). Finally whilst the government has talked about being behind private industry; it has exerted pressure on private enterprises and favoured state owned enterprises. What’s going to be scary is international exposure to these debt defaults

    Jack Ma
    Jack Ma by JD Lasica

    eMarketer Instagram User Forecast Estimates Q4 2019 – eMarketer Trends, Forecasts & Statistics – law of big numbers kicks in

    B2B Marketing Trends | LinkedIn Marketing Solutions – I need to go through this in more depth

    In strategic Djibouti, a microcosm of China’s growing foothold in Africa – The Washington Post – yet another example of China government backed financing of loans is making a difference

    I Was Google’s Head of International Relations. Here’s Why I Left. – My solution was to advocate for the adoption of a company-wide, formal Human Rights Program that would publicly commit Google to adhere to human rights principles found in the UN Declaration of Human Rights, provide a mechanism for product and engineering teams to seek internal review of product design elements, and formalize the use of Human Rights Impact Assessments for all major product launches and market entries. 
    But each time I recommended a Human Rights Program, senior executives came up with an excuse to say no. At first, they said human rights issues were better handled within the product teams, rather than starting a separate program. But the product teams weren’t trained to address human rights as part of their work. When I went back to senior executives to again argue for a program, they then claimed to be worried about increasing the company’s legal liability     – Google seems to have a right dumpster fire going on in the reputation space

    China’s 7 Wealthy Consumer Types | Jing Daily – some conclusive differences between China’s rich and those in the U.S. (a good standard for Western wealth). One notable difference is the age of wealthy consumers. In China, 80 percent are under the age of 45 while that age accounts for just 30 percent of wealthy citizens in the U.S. (that number is even lower in many European countries.) The Chinese side also placed significantly higher values on products’ functional benefits rather than their emotional benefits, which was the exact opposite of U.S.-based respondents. Lastly, trust in foreign brands and trust in internet/social media advertising are both much higher for Chinese HNWI – More luxury related content here

  • Truth decay

    Truth decay was a concept that I came across when reading Monocle’s Forecast issue.

    Donald Trump
    President Donald Trump

    Michael D Rich is the head of the The RAND Corporation – a not-for-profit think tank. When he was interviewed and described as being preoccupied with ‘truth decay’. Truth decay occurs when society and the body politic can’t even agree on basic facts.

    • Increasing disagreement about facts and analytical interpretations of facts and data
    • A blurring of the line between opinion and fact
    • The increasing relative volume and resulting influence of opinion and personal experience over fact
    • Declining trust in formerly respected sources of facts

    Truth decay. One point that we’ve made over and over again is that no important problem can be solved in the US within the span of just a four-year presidency or a two-year Congress. And the way those problems have been surmounted in the past is consensus and compromise. That’s impossible if two sides can’t agree on the basic facts.

    Thought Leaders – The Forecast 2020 Monocle magazine

    All of this sounds like the rhetoric used to describe Vladislav Surkov and his work for the Russian government, or Dominic Cummings and Cambridge Analytica. The idea is that language and truth no longer mean anything. There is no right, there is no left, there is no ideology except the other group and the desire for power.

    The RAND Corporation is America’s foremost think tank. It spun out of Douglas Aircraft Corporation. From national security it expanded to social and economic areas. It now has its own grad school and nine different research facilities. It’s website is a good source of resources across a range of areas.

  • Muslim minorities + more things

    Inside China’s Push to Turn Muslim Minorities Into an Army of Workers – The New York Times – wants to remake them into loyal blue collar workers. Where this gets interesting is with China’s belt and road neighbours like Kazakhstan who have families that span the borders. China’s muslim minorities push has a wider impact in the region. There is likely to be careful consideration of what is going on with the muslim minorities by Mongolia and South Korea in particular. As they will be concerned with their ethnic brethren across the border.

    Kapor Capital – Cultural impact – software innovator Mitch Kapor on VC investing

    ‘Social Mentality’ Report Reveals Telling Trends in Happiness | Sixth Tone – Chinese people are fed up with what they perceive as a reckless lack of concern for their privacy. Over 90% of nearly 3,200 people surveyed last year said they were worried about third-party companies leaking their personal data, while just 10% said they were “very optimistic” when it came to trusting such companies

    China’s impending Minsky moment | Financial Times – China’s debt-to-gross domestic product ratio is more than 300 per cent and continues on a dangerously upward trajectory. The Chinese authorities are aware of the situation and the risks but they continually refrain from acting with the necessary force. They are concerned that actions to confront rising domestic debt will constrain economic growth. They are wrong in believing there will ever be a good time to curb financial excesses, as they fail to comprehend that delay now will make action in the future harder and costlier

    Great video that explains Chinese boomers quite nicely

    The 2010s were supposed to bring the ebook revolution. It never quite came. – Vox – technological disruption offered opportunities for everyone but consumers. eBooks would have annihilated the secondhand market and provided Kindle brain wasn’t to be foreseen, but the power of artefacts was better understood by consumers.

  • Volkswagen Beatle fairwell & other things this week

    Volkswagen Beatle

    Volkswagen Beatle – after seven decades Volkswagen is finally saying goodbye to its most iconic vehicle. It seems the Beatle won’t make it into the electric future of Volkswagen.

    Visual Futurist – Syd Mead

    We lost visual futurist Syd Mead at the end of 2019. Mead was best known now as the stylist on Blade Runner, but had worked for a number of US corporates including Ford and US Steel. He’d also done work for NASA.

    Even if you don’t know Mead, you’ve likely seen his work. Or the stuff influenced by his work.

    My first reaction on hearing the news is that fate is cruel. Mead has left us, but in his place we have Elon Musk.

    Animal thoughts

    Ze Frank for Audible on animals thoughts for Christmas. Animal thoughts for Christmas reminds you of how alien our rituals must seem to our pets. The random associations that they will likely form with things like tinsel. The cat going on about tree torture is the best part of it. But the inner trips of cats on cat nip comes a close second.

    Connected restaurant

    Three Ireland have executed on an idea I investigated back in 2005 for Motorola. Back then it was a lot harder to get the bandwidth and screens to do it. We were also thinking on a bigger scale, connecting Trafalgar Square with public spaces around the world. Three Ireland made the venue more intimate. It was a lovely to see the creative wrapper that Three Ireland put around it that resonates with Irish households around the world.

    Sesame Street

    Sesame Street characters do impressions of each other. I know that some characters might be voiced by the same actors and wonder if that what was going on here. I am constantly amazed by the timelessness of the Sesame Street franchise.

  • Treasure hunt

    Treasure hunt

    Treasure hunt as defined by NPD is the process of consumers bargain hunting. It might be discounted pricing on items or looking for substitute pre-owned products.

    Sale
    Sale

    Discounted items used to be seen in the retail trade as the preserve of older consumers alongside couponing. But as empirical experience going along to discount outlets show bargain hunters reach across social classes, income levels and age groups. Discounted products accounted for 3 percent growth in retail, even while retail declined by 1 percent overall in the last quarter.

    There hasn’t been as much of an exploration into whether its the discounts that people want or whether its the thrill of the hunt itself, especially when Google makes it much easier online.

    As for pre-owned goods, whilst NPD thinks that this is a millennial trait – vintage clothing stores, crate digging for records and and eBay are evidence that this trait isn’t new. I was reminded of being told that the collective memory is about eight years or so. So this explains how trends come back and get regurgitated or remixed by trendspotters and agencies.

    Admittedly the motivation that they are ascribing to vintage shopping by millennials and gen-z adds environmental aspects to vintage consumption. (Though is probably quality aspects as well as apparel globalisation and fast fashion have gone hand-in-hand in the demand for heirloom design).