Blog

  • How the Panama Papers story broke online

    The Panama Papers are 2.6 TB worth of documents provided to German paper Sueddeutsche Zeitung by an anonymous source in August 2015. The documents cover 40 years of work by a Panamanian corporate law firm Mossack Fonseca on behalf of clients around the world.

    The documents detail corporate services provided to the rich and powerful around the world. The first stories from the data trove were published on April 3, 2016 with more expected by early May 2016.

    Many of the stories within the trove of information is likely to be never told. This is due to the vast volume of data provided. It would still need to be interpreted and mapped out into a story. That story would then need to go through legal review at a media outlet.
    Mentions by medium
    Looking at social media listening services we can see how the story rolled out online.

    Forums gave an early ‘canary in the coal mine’ for the story, a day before the story broke.  But it was Twitter that provided a massive accelerant. Twitter’s audience belies the platforms size versus Facebook. It is one of the few platforms that provides data like this for a price.

    The challenge for Twitter is monetising the power that they have in a way that will satisfy shareholders.
    Mentions over time
    Mentions over time

    It was clear that the mainstream media was needed as a catalyst to drive the story. Both the mainstream media and Twitter share the same monetisation problem.

    A secondary effect of the Panama Papers story was the way the story cemented Edward Snowden’s place as a media brand. His media brand specialises in privacy and transparency – he was the most retweeted commentator in the first 24 hours of the story being out there.
    The story in one tweet
    Understanding the retweeters
    About me
    More on Slideshare. I also analysed the VS250 crisis and got some lessons from the data.

  • Unlicensed delivery vehicles + more stuff

    Crackdown on unlicensed delivery vehicles in Chinese boom city creates major logistics headache | South China Morning Post – this will affect TaoBao sellers. Unlicensed delivery vehicles are an example of an imbalance between legislation, business and infrastructure.   (paywall)

    [1403.2345] Home Location Identification of Twitter Users | Cornell University – (pdf)

    Flamboyant Chinese boss takes luxury-car motorcade on road trip into harsh Tibetan Plateau, damaging half of them | South China Morning Post – “People follow you because you have a fortune and they think they can also earn some money from following you” (paywall) – this explains a lot of Chinese luxury purchases, particularly for men’s products. More on luxury here

    LG G5 Review: A Bit Of A Mess, Frankly | Android Police – brutal and arguably unfair review

    Net Promoter Score® / NPS® Benchmarks 2015 – really handy for benchmarking businesses

    28% of Piracy Takedown Requests Are “Questionable” – TorrentFreak – interesting break down

    The Next 40 | Asymco – interesting analysis of Apple’s first 40 years

    Convolutional Networks for Fast, Energy-Efficient Neuromorphic Computing | Cornell University – interesting article on neural networks (PDF)

    Cicero ‘sorry’ for Google ad campaign sneering at major PR agency rivals | PR Week – using competitor brands as advertising terms is standard practice, though the copywriting could be done a bit better – storm in a tea-cup

    When Hong Kong had no galleries: 1970s art revisited in show | South China Morning Post – it fucks me off when people say Hong Kong never had any art or culture. As well as the thriving low art of signage and graffiti there has been a small high art movement (paywall)

    IngDan: a one-stop supply chain centre for online-to-offline – Alibaba for IoT

    Hong Kong’s bogus banners show political dark arts live on | South China Morning Post – real world hacking. Vinyl banners are secured to railings in high traffic areas to deliver political messages for candidates or groups like Falun Gong or animal welfare charities (paywall)

    Need a friend? Iceland now rents them out to tourists | City AM – great idea by Icelandair

  • Huawei expansion into smartphone market

    Huawei expansion into smartphone market has started to be reflected int their released their annual results for 2015 last week. By going through their press release library and annual reports I have tried to piece together a picture of their consumer business and how it has grown over time.

    Huawei isn’t like other businesses you might be used to in terms of corporate structure. It is based around worker participation in profits with Chinese colleagues benefiting from profit share. It is a private company so it’s numbers don’t have the same level of disclosure requirements as public companies. It’s books are audited by a reputable accounting  firm.

    I found some inconsistencies in the way information is disclosed. For a number of years Huawei used to quote US dollar equivalents to its numbers, but has stopped doing so in the 2015 report.

    Other inconsistencies:

    • High-end device sales are only listed for the past three years as the company started to focus on the premium marketplace
    • Honor sub-brand device shipments were disclosed for 2014 and 2015 as the brand filled the low-to-mid market segments Huawei’s range had previously extended down to
    • I only have two years worth of revenue numbers from Western Europe, if I get more I can then start looking at trends over time
    • In 2014, they disclosed the proportion of sales from e-commerce and the number of Huawei branded stores. In 2015, they disclosed the total number of retail outlets worldwide that sold Huawei phones

    Between the currency fluctuations and the slight changes in information there may be some errors in my numbers – please bare this in mind.

    I have outlined my charts below as JPEGs and have embedded a presentation at the bottom for convenience.
    Consumer devices shipped
    Consumer average revenue / device
    Huawei consumer business growth over time

    What does 2016 and beyond bring?
    Overall sector outlook
    Looking at forecasts from market analysts and The World Bank Huawei will experience tougher market conditions with lower growth forecast across major markets like China. Smartphone market maturity will mean lower exceptions of sector growth as well.
    Macro economic data
    As a presentation

  • IP guy for Xiaomi + more

    Xiaomi’s New IP Guy — The Information – interesting questions around services profitability and IP as a competitive barrier (expect more of this from Huawei as Xiaomi competes against its Honor and P series devices). More on the IP guy at The Information (paywall)

    In Snub to Google, AT&T Looks to Sell Alternative Android Phone — The Information – this is a logical move for carriers looking for a third platform to reduce the power of Google and Apple given that BlackBerry and Microsoft have failed to deliver. It would be a coup for ZTE if they get to make the device. Interesting that AT&T didn’t put up Sailfish which has some unique USPs in comparison to Cyanogen

    Even Google views its Nest acquisition as a disappointment | BGR – it was a lot of money for a thermostat company with smart home pretensions. I don’t see a high barrier to entry the clever bit is in the glue like Apple’s HomeKit.

    Snapchat’s Ladder | Stratechery – or why OTT messaging platforms have a difficult time in the US

    Urban world: The global consumers to watch | McKinsey & Company – McKinsey goes back to the 1990s to look at market clusters

    Facebook Still Younger Than Snapchat, Instagram: comScore (Chart) | Re/code  – There has been a general perception over the past few years that millennials are abandoning Facebook in search of greener, less parent-friendly pastures like Snapchat and Instagram. Not. Even. Close.

    Xiaomi’s $150 rice cooker is not about making rice—it’s about beating Japan – Xiaomi CEO Lei Jun just unveiled the company’s latest product—a wifi-enabled rice cooker that retails for 999 yuan ($153). This foray into the kitchen is not surprising for the smartphone giant. It’s part of China’s wider government driven efforts to show that it can make quality products

    Dyson launches $500 air purifier that lets you monitor domestic pollutants from a smartphone | VentureBeat | Mobile | by Paul Sawers – eerily like Xiaomi’s domestic products

  • Online ad and tech data points

    Over time, I pulled together online ad and tech data points. It happened because I have had to compile data and visualise it based on desk and primary research. I thought that these slides may be of use to other people. So I have compiled them here. As I have time, I will try to update them with new data.

    There are here as JPGs and as a presentation on SlideShare which I have linked to at the bottom of the presentation.

    I decided to take a macro view looking at major email and OTT messaging platforms using monthly active users as a measure of adoption. This took a long slog of time to do as I had to go back and trawl quoted MAU (monthly active user) numbers from the dawn of the internet for people like Hotmail and Yahoo!. The numbers came from a wide range of sources.

    What’s interesting in this graph is how the internet dot.com time felt like a rocket ship, yet saw a gentle rise in user numbers in comparison to later smartphone based services like WhatsApp, WeChat et al. Google didn’t manage to cash in as big despite owning Android, but instead acted as a spring board for new players.

    Communications service adoption (active users)

    Brandwatch had a set of snapshot numbers that are rather different to the ones I had from my research

    Platform numbers snapshot

    The IPA Databank is an amazing source of quality planning information and work around the optimum number of channels in advertising campaign. The data is in sharp contrast to the 300+ channels that Machine Zone’s CMO Gabe Leydon claims that they work with to have an optimal communications mix.

    Optimum number of advertising channels

    My former boss Salim Mitha used to constantly go on about how online was underspent in comparison to the amount of consumer attention that it received. More up to date data shows that its channels like OOH (out of home) and radio which are currently underspend with online rapidly coming to parity between time spent and percentage of advertising budget spent.

    Audience time spent vs. advertising spend share

    Of course audience spend does not take into account the context under which the audience experiences the brand.

    I also have additional information on the health of the media industry and adoption of wearables in the statistics attached. More on consumer behaviour here.